Corona Virus... the second wave

[raggie33]

im watching outbreak. its such a scary movie it scared me even before covid 19! imagine being the guys who had to bomb the town. i for sure rather be a town member then the guys in the plane

 

[turbodog]

im watching outbreak. its such a scary movie it scared me even before covid 19! imagine being the guys who had to bomb the town. i for sure rather be a town member then the guys in the plane

Well that's an interesting take on that movie, for sure.

 

[WarriorOfLight]

im watching outbreak. its such a scary movie it scared me even before covid 19! imagine being the guys who had to bomb the town. i for sure rather be a town member then the guys in the plane

Than I recommend Contagion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contagion_(2011_film)), that is in most parts exactly what happened at the moment. But yes, also this movie has some "Hollywood specific" parts, but no bombs and no military stuff at all.
The reality level for Contagion may be at 60-70%, for Outbreak I would say it is less ...

And regarding Outbreak movie: The idea of an Ebola strain that has a higher infection rate is not realistic. The base problem with Ebola is that between "infection - symtoms - dead" the timespan is far to short. That is the reason why there are still people in Africa and big cities are not complete empty. And there were Ebola outbreaks even in larger cities...

A wide spreading virus must have:
- high infection rate
- infection between human - human
- long enough timespan between infection and the first symtoms to has the possibility of infecting enough people.

That is the reason why Ebola was never a virus for a pandemic that we currently have. Also the outbreak of viruses in the past always had one piece missing. We had swine flew, bird flew, SARS - 2003 ... and so on. There was always at least one piece missing.

 

[orbital]

..The base problem with Ebola is that between "infection - symtoms - dead" the timespan is far to short. That is the reason why there are still people in Africa and big cities are not complete empty. And there were Ebola outbreaks even in larger cities...

+

Yes Ebola was/is too good of a virus in that it killed its victims just too quickly. There was not the duration to spread the disease, so the virus literally killed itself.
I read The Hot Zone when it very first came out (like 25 years ago), that's the biggest thing I took away from that book.

 

[turbodog]

Doesn't J&J make Ebola vaccine now?

 

[turbodog]

Also, FYI about vaccine registration, specifically the 2nd dose.

If your state is like mine, all doses are sched through one main website. Go there and get shot #1 lined up.

Now the state "said" they were reserving 2nd dose stockpile, but 2nd dose schedules were always unavailable. And as I'm getting reasonably close to dose #2 I was concerned.

They had locked out scheduling until you got close to the date. I confirmed by going into the portal and entering a dose #1 date further back in the past. All of a sudden, thousands of slots appeared in the scheduling board.

 

[SCEMan]

Also, FYI about vaccine registration, specifically the 2nd dose.

If your state is like mine, all doses are sched through one main website. Go there and get shot #1 lined up.

Now the state "said" they were reserving 2nd dose stockpile, but 2nd dose schedules were always unavailable. And as I'm getting reasonably close to dose #2 I was concerned.

They had locked out scheduling until you got close to the date. I confirmed by going into the portal and entering a dose #1 date further back in the past. All of a sudden, thousands of slots appeared in the scheduling board.

Ditto in my disaster of a state. Dead last in inoculations with a witless governor who'll hopefully be recalled. I'm supposed to get my 2nd dose about the middle of February but it doesn't look likely anything will be available in the foreseeable future.

 

[Monocrom]

Ditto in my disaster of a state. Dead last in inoculations with a witless governor who'll hopefully be recalled. I'm supposed to get my 2nd dose about the middle of February but it doesn't look likely anything will be available in the foreseeable future.

Unfortunately, that's how it looks like it. I know a ton of folks who have gotten the 1st injection, but have no clue when they'll get the 2nd one.

 

[markr6]

Unfortunately, that's how it looks like it. I know a ton of folks who have gotten the 1st injection, but have no clue when they'll get the 2nd one.

Fauci and crew were actually discussing this as a strategy a while back. Whether to spread the first one out to more people or wait until both shots were given to a smaller group. I wonder if they actually decided on this, or if it just happened naturally based on production limitations?

 

[Monocrom]

Fauci and crew were actually discussing this as a strategy a while back. Whether to spread the first one out to more people or wait until both shots were given to a smaller group. I wonder if they actually decided on this, or if it just happened naturally based on production limitations?

I mean, the solution is rather obvious. If the vaccine needs to be given in 2 shots to actually work, then there's no point giving everyone one; and then waiting for the 2nd one to be ready. You're going to have a ton of people who'll get the 1st, and then (knowing human nature) they're not going to come back to get the 2nd one when it's finally available. So all you do is waste massive amounts of the first shot.

 

[Lynx_Arc]

I've read somewhere that some studies have suggested that waiting longer for the second shot on a certain vaccine increased its effectiveness considerably.

 

[SCEMan]

I got my Moderna shot on Friday at a supermarket pharmacy. I scheduled it about a month ago, and before I left, they had already scheduled my second shot appointment 4.5 weeks later, Feb. 24.

Congrats. That's the way it's supposed to work.

 

[turbodog]

Couple of things.

1. Think there was a misunderstanding of my post. In short, don't be discouraged if you see NO available 2nd shots until AFTER 2 weeks have passed. Once I hit that date, there were hundreds/thousands of slots available. I should have zero problem getting shot #2 on time.

2. From the literature I read, Moderna is ~50% effective after 1 dose, increasing to 98% after dose #2. Given the Moderna and Pfizer use similar tech I would expect similar effectiveness.

 

[Poppy]

LOL... all this haggeling drives me nuts!

The newscasters blame the rollout of the states, yet the states that have set up large sites can't get enough vaccines and they have to close the sites until they get another allotment. It has been stated that they are frustrated because they don't know when, nor how large of an allotment they will get.

The Feds say, they do not have a stock-pile to release, but do keep a 2-3 day supply in reserve. I believe they are talking 10 million doses a week. That's about 3-4 million in reserve.

Earlier President elect said that he wanted to release what was in reserve for the second dose, in order to get more people at least get the first dose and as production ramped up, more people can get the second dose. Fauci stated that he didn't think that was a good idea, he would prefer to administer the doses in the manner in which they were tested and approved.

A few days after the President elect became President, they reported that there was no second dose held in reserve by the previous administration.

100 million doses a day for a hundred days.

When the doses are available, and there is the demand, the states have administered 150 million doses one day and 160 million doses the next day.

Many of the interviewees of the news channels speak to the need to get the vaccines into the "hardest hit neighborhoods" and the need to "educate them to reduce their resistance to getting vaccinated."

There is talk that some people in the "hardest hit neighborhoods" complain that they are being used as guinea pigs and are therefore resisting getting injected.

My position (although not an educated one) is:
Make the vaccine available in the hardest hit areas, but don't go crazy trying to convince them to get vaccinated. Then: Let all the people who are willing to wait in line for 3-6 hours, who don't need to be coerced, and have no conspiracy theory/axe to grind, get it. Then bring it back to the people who already had first shot at it. Maybe it won't take so much convincing.

 

[turbodog]

... Maybe it won't take so much convincing.

Nothing personal, but in my best gen-x manner: 'whatever'

A very close family member of mine is over ~100 people at a HOSPITAL. They can't even get those folks to take it... the ones that go into covid positive rooms ALL DAY LONG.

Push this thing out asap to those that want it. Eventually the others will either come around or get infected. Either path leads to herd immunity more or less.

Besides... overall it seems like there's not enough to go around right now anyway.

EDIT:

Update: this person's department had acceptance rates in low single digits. The entire hospital's acceptance rate is only 35%, and that's directly from COO today.

 

[PhotonWrangler]

I fear that those who are reluctant to get it will look at the recipients who feel sick-ish for a day or two afterwards and think that they got the 'Rona from the vaccination and will be even more reluctant to take it themselves. This will be an uphill battle for those people.

 

[idleprocess]

Per TX's presently-defined phases (TL;DR best I can tell - 1A: healthcare workers | 1B: the elderly and immunocompromised) I don't qualify. I suspect my SO - who teaches high school - might qualify for the next phase if occupational exposure is a qualifier. I suspect I'll be sometime after that - only getting to skip ahead of genpop if there's a critical infrastructure exemption.

 

[turbodog]

Per TX's presently-defined phases (TL;DR best I can tell - 1A: healthcare workers | 1B: the elderly and immunocompromised) I don't qualify. I suspect my SO - who teaches high school - might qualify for the next phase if occupational exposure is a qualifier. I suspect I'll be sometime after that - only getting to skip ahead of genpop if there's a critical infrastructure exemption.

See if you can drive to an adjacent state. Dad drove from AL to FL for his, only 38 miles though.

 

[bykfixer]

Right on schedule, politics has entered the vaccine roll out in my state. Those awful "haves" are getting theirs before those poor down trodden "have nots" according to the local press.

According to the press a week ago nobody was getting them. The chief executive of the state gives a speech and "poof" a bunch of vaccines appear, just like that. 10,000. It seems a large medical facility was sitting on 10,000 to have as the second dose.

In the capital city on one side there's a mass testing station set up a few days a week and that's wildy popular. On the other side of town is a vaccine giving site and there are more cars in the McDonalds drive through at lunch time than there are folks getting the shot. The testing site is in a fairly affluent area. The vaccine sight a not so affluent community.

Now at this time the criteria for receiving the shot is pretty narrow so at least in the capital city many of those eligable who want it already got the shot. In the not so affluent community many rely on public transportation yet the city bus does not go all the way to the shot issueing facility but stops about a mile away. Sadly that means those in that community 70 and over are missing out simply because it's winter, it's cold and they're old. It's also an area where the virus has run amock in the community due to crowded conditions.

So in effect, at least in the capital city the press is correct. Yet sadly those casting all of the blame don't seem to have a desire to lend a hand in the matter. Instead a church up the road a piece has jumped in and offers rides at no cost. The other day I saw a pair of tour busses loaded with elderly folks pull into the parking lot where they were issuing covid shots. That made my day to see that.

 

[KITROBASKIN]

Completed the "Vault" saliva test for COVID as required by my employer. It is a condition of employment. I was required by Vault to agree to be tested and treated(?) by them. During the video recorded Zoom Meet, the medical attendant did not ask me to cough before expelling saliva. When I remarked that I did not have that much spit available, her advice of smelling a lemon helped a lot in producing the substantial amount of saliva required to fill the tube. The cap to close the tube has a blue (mouthwash like) fluid that mixes with the saliva when tightened to preserve the sample. After sealing the mailing bag, the Vault person instructed me to use a tiny square alcohol prep pad to sanitize the outer surface of the shipping bag, being careful to not smear the shipping codes. The sample must be returned to a UPS store within 24 hours. Label on the inner package that held the saliva sample kit said Made in Mexico (ok by me, just used to seeing medical supplies made in USA), and that it is for research purposes only, not for diagnosis. I've got no beef being tested in of itself, just think it a waste of money to use this type of test on the healthy, symptom free. Test came back negative.

Our New Mexico state governor is now saying students can go back to school in hybrid mode, including middle and high school, though local districts decide for their schools.