I think now would be a great time for China to stop "manipulating," according to the neo-cons, the Yuans, and start acting like a "responsible," according to the White House, international player by raising the Yuans another couple notches higher in value to the dollar. I'm sure this would finally contribute something positive to the inflationary pressure in the U.S. economy since this is what the American government, both left and right, has been asking for all along? Surely this has drawn the ire of the U.S. government not because of politics, but actual harm being done to the American economy...
Calling all economic experts
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Has anyone calculated what the possible effects the Iranian oil bourse would have on the dollar once its up and running? A 'currency basket' type oil bourse is definitely coming, its only a question of when. The obvious change I can see would be:
Major oil buyers (Japan, Europe, etc) would no longer be required to exchange their currency for dollars in order to buy oil which means they don't lose any value on the exchange rate and there's less demand for dollar holdings.
My question is, would that substantially increase inflation due to the billions of oil trade dollars coming back into circulation?
BTW, thanks to everyone, I'm learning quite a bit from this thread.
Major oil buyers (Japan, Europe, etc) would no longer be required to exchange their currency for dollars in order to buy oil which means they don't lose any value on the exchange rate and there's less demand for dollar holdings.
My question is, would that substantially increase inflation due to the billions of oil trade dollars coming back into circulation?
BTW, thanks to everyone, I'm learning quite a bit from this thread.
jtr1962
Flashaholic
Regarding any coming recession, I'd say it's more like a reality check than an economic downtown. People are just going to learn living within their income since the days of easy credit are over. BTW, since we're supposedly in a recession, where was the economic boom which preceded it? Where exactly was this "great economy" we were supposed to have had in between recessions? Truth is things weren't that great when I got out of college in 1985, and nobody I knew or heard of did that great any time since. I don't consider a "great economy" to mean you have a job which barely covers your living expenses, yet that's been the reality for the majority. So if the coming recession is a media fabrication, which it is to some extent, so was the preceding boom. The media made it sound like everyone and his brother was making $250,000 a year at the height of the dot com boom. Most people were scraping by even when things were supposedly at their best. Every time I've looked at jobs typically available during the last 20 years, they were mostly low paying. Those who apparently did a little better often just used the equity in their homes to finance profligate spending. Now that housing prices are down, they have a negative net worth, and only a crappy paying job to cover expenses.
I hope you're right, I can deal with that.
The "great economy" was only in the minds of the media pundits and government "think tanks" IE the Tavistock Institute etc trying to keep the sheeple dumbed down. But the Federal Reserve Note game of musical chairs is over and will be replaced soon with the "Amero" scam to try to keep the illusion going a little longer. The movie "Braveheart" is a great example of what we are going back to. I hope people are able to come back to reality soon, I'm afraid it's too late for most. :sick2:
PEU
Flashlight Enthusiast
Regarding alternative currency system, this is an interesting read
Its not a long read, here is an excerpt:
Pablo
PEU
Flashlight Enthusiast
Not that I agree, but why would they do that??? Does Ben Bernanke asks the Chinese autorithies every time he changes the rates?
Pablo
mudman cj
Flashlight Enthusiast
+1
I'll bet some of you guys have seen, "The Money Masters". If not, check it out. It's a 3 1/2 hour documentary on the political/economic power structure.
PEU
Flashlight Enthusiast
Here is the unabridged version of my previous reply
Not that I agree with the Chinese autorithies manipulating the exchange rate to their advantage, but why would they do that(*)??? Does Ben Bernanke asks the Chinese autorithies every time he changes the rates?
(*) change their exchange rate to benefit the USA?
Pablo
Their reasons for agreeing to what the U.S. has been asking for is unbeknownest to me as well, but President Bush, the U.S. Congress (both parties), and Henry Paulson have repeatedly claimed that China has been manipulating their Yuan to the disadvantage of American businesses. Why would you disagree with them? I have no reason to think the President, Congress, or Paulson would lie to the entire country about this; and certainly, if they're right on this, China would be doing the U.S. a favor to let their Yuan rise against the dollar now, no?Here is the unabridged version of my previous reply
Not that I agree with the Chinese autorithies manipulating the exchange rate to their advantage, but why would they do that(*)??? Does Ben Bernanke asks the Chinese autorithies every time he changes the rates?
(*) change their exchange rate to benefit the USA?
Pablo
Russianesq
Enlightened
I vote to rename this thread " ECONOMICS BY FLASHAHOLICS"
Who will second my vote :thumbsup:
P.S. Great Stuff
Who will second my vote :thumbsup:
P.S. Great Stuff
TIP AND RING
Enlightened
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"The "housing bubble" implosion is broadly misunderstood. It's not just the collapse of a market for a particular kind of commodity, it's the end of the suburban pattern itself, the way of life it represents, and the entire economy connected with it. It's the crack up of the system that America has invested most of its wealth in since 1950. It's perhaps most tragic that the mis-investments only accelerated as the system reached its end, but it seems to be nature's way that waves crest just before they break.
This wave is breaking into a sea-wall of disbelief. Nobody gets it. The psychological investment in what we think of as American reality is too great. The mainstream media doesn't get it, and they can't report it coherently. None of the candidates for president has begun to articulate an understanding of what we face: the suburban living arrangement is an experiment that has entered failure mode."
A very well worded excerpt from James Kunstler's web page. I hope the economy recovers, but my gut is telling me otherwise.
This wave is breaking into a sea-wall of disbelief. Nobody gets it. The psychological investment in what we think of as American reality is too great. The mainstream media doesn't get it, and they can't report it coherently. None of the candidates for president has begun to articulate an understanding of what we face: the suburban living arrangement is an experiment that has entered failure mode."
A very well worded excerpt from James Kunstler's web page. I hope the economy recovers, but my gut is telling me otherwise.
In all honesty, the so called housing bubble is not the trouble for the U.S. economy. Yes, this would seem to run contradictory to what most people, economists, even, are seeing. But the housing sector is simply the last straw, a mediocre sized straw, neither too big nor too small, on the camel's back. The 500 billion to 1 trillion mortgage debt that may eventually go down is not enough to sink the U.S. economy IF we had not been spending like there's no tomorrow for the last 15 years. Now that the Fed cannot (technically, they still can) print more money, summon more credit out of thin air because they have already done too much of that for the last 7 years, America is going to have to actually EARN the money they wish to spend, instead of just have its Fed spreading it out of Bernanke's helicopter. Except, what does America have to sell to the rest of the world???? Nothing.
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jtr1962
Flashaholic
Yes, this is something I've known would take place for years. Fundamentally, low-density suburban living just can't work long term because of the huge amount of infrastructure required per capita compared to denser living. A road costs the same per mile to build whether in the middle of nowhere or the center of NYC. Well, actually that's not completely true but for our purposes here the approximation is close enough. Ditto for electric lines, gas lines, sewers, etc. However, when that mile of road services 2% or 8% of the population it might in a larger city, then it suddenly doesn't become cost effective. We've already seen the results of trying to make it work-ever increasing real estate taxes, plus a need to government to fund the initial building of infrastructure."The "housing bubble" implosion is broadly misunderstood. It's not just the collapse of a market for a particular kind of commodity, it's the end of the suburban pattern itself, the way of life it represents, and the entire economy connected with it. It's the crack up of the system that America has invested most of its wealth in since 1950. It's perhaps most tragic that the mis-investments only accelerated as the system reached its end, but it seems to be nature's way that waves crest just before they break.
This wave is breaking into a sea-wall of disbelief. Nobody gets it. The psychological investment in what we think of as American reality is too great. The mainstream media doesn't get it, and they can't report it coherently. None of the candidates for president has begun to articulate an understanding of what we face: the suburban living arrangement is an experiment that has entered failure mode."
A very well worded excerpt from James Kunstler's web page. I hope the economy recovers, but my gut is telling me otherwise.
We've hit a crossroads at this point in time. Much of the infrastructure built at government expense in the 1950s and 1960s to jumpstart suburbia is now falling apart. Government can't afford to build it over, residents in these areas cannot afford the taxes necessary to keep it in good repair. Note that this is independent of what fuel prices are doing. Higher gas prices will accelerate the trend, but it would have happened eventually even with $1 per gallon gas. There was just no way, short of perhaps robots maintaining infrastructure, or slave labor doing the same, that a suburban lifestyle dependent upon mechanized transportation could be self-sustaining.
Note that this new type of low-density living is quite different from old rural America, which may well have been even less dense. The need for transport and roads was far less. A dirt road to go into town once a month was more than sufficient. People worked and lived on their farms, not traveled 50 miles a day to work, plus shopped on weekends. The railroad and interurbans were sufficient for the very occasional trips farther than the local town. Electricity was often not needed at all, or if it was, in far smaller amounts than demanded by a typical suburban household. In short, the lifestyle meant that a very basic, low cost per capita infrastructure sufficed. Those who wanted all the modern amenities moved to cities where these things were cost effective to provide.
I could go on but I'll stop for now. Suffice it to say that abandoning a part of the economy into which trillions were invested is going to have very dire repercussions. However, it will cost even more long term to continue a lifestyle which can't be than to abandon it. It will hurt the American psyche even more since few alive today don't remember a time when the proverbial American dream was the house in suburbia, the car, dog, and 2.1 children. The new American dream may well be a modest house on 1/10 or 1/15 of an acre in an area convenient to a subway, with plenty of shopping a short walk away.
jtr1962
Flashaholic
America is about to get humbled big time... there will be alot of begging and borrowing and very little pride. Nothing other great nations haven't gone through in the past, but the problem is, they usually don't recover in less than a century, if they recover at all.
LOL ! You better all sell your flashlights while the gettin's good.
This topic is truly funny....and EVERY great civilization/ruling power will eventually be hoist with his own petard.
This topic is truly funny....and EVERY great civilization/ruling power will eventually be hoist with his own petard.
PEU
Flashlight Enthusiast
Their reasons for agreeing to what the U.S. has been asking for is unbeknownest to me as well, but President Bush, the U.S. Congress (both parties), and Henry Paulson have repeatedly claimed that China has been manipulating their Yuan to the disadvantage of American businesses. Why would you disagree with them? I have no reason to think the President, Congress, or Paulson would lie to the entire country about this; and certainly, if they're right on this, China would be doing the U.S. a favor to let their Yuan rise against the dollar now, no?
All governments play with their exchange rates to their own advantages in some way... I know my country does it, we keep the Dollar (against the peso) at an inflated rate (1dollar=3.20 peso) so our industry can sell at competitive prices overseas, I guess the same applies to China.
Im not doubting what the US congress, president, etc are saying, what Im trying to say is: why China would change their economic policy to benefit the US? They will change the rate when they think its time to do it, and be sure it won't be because the US asked, in the first place it will be because it benefits them...
Pablo
js
Flashlight Enthusiast
jtr,
I would suggest that your thinking above needs to be balanced out by the HUGE demands of cities, all provided by mass transport of goods and services and trash and waste into and out of the city. All those people crammed into that small a space certainly does mean that they don't need cars and can walk or take public transit
BUT
It also means that all the food and other life necessities that they require must be brought into the city on a daily basis, and that their trash and waste must be transported out on a daily basis.
The modern trend is toward concentration--larger egg "factories", larger grain farms, larger flour mills, and so on. But when you do this you create a great many problems. Keeping 2.5 million chickens in a single building creates a living hell with hellish problems associated. The egg factory drains the local water table, and then poisons it unless the waste is managed properly, and then all those eggs must be shipped out for hundreds of miles in all directions.
Large urban cities suffer from much the same problems, and are, in a sense, highly unnatural. If you stopped the supplies into and out of NYC, it would collapse into a disaster area in a matter of days.
Not that I disagree with what you wrote, though. Just that I'm pretty much a Distributist when it come to this sort of thing. I want to see more local production and consumption of goods, and more small businesses owned by local individuals. I don't think it's a really great idea to have all the grain grown in one part of the country and all the fruit in another. Nor do I think it's a great idea to reduce the genetic diversity of your crops down to a handful of varieties, or even just ONE strain. I guess the potato famine in Ireland is a lesson not learned, but lost to history.
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