If the Ikea bulb rated 25k cycles is cycled on/off every 1/2 hour for 3 hours per day, it should last 11.4 years. If turned on/off once, run also 3 hours per day, 11.4 years is about 12.5k hour run life; a bit low but seems reasonable for a bulb like this. Based on low power (3.3W) and efficacy of bulb (136 lumens/W), thermal cycling is probably not a big factor. It might be so for higher power bulbs which run hotter.
You might think the driver is most likely to fail, possibly, but LEDs are generating most of the heat, and thermal cycling could cause breaking bond wires, solder joints etc.
If "failure" is defined as L70 (reducing output by 30%), turning bulb off when not in use will be better.
Dave