# Corona Virus... the second wave



## Poppy (Nov 2, 2020)

New Jersey’s latest seven-day rolling average is 1,630 new daily cases — a 30% increase from a week earlier. 
That's also a 500% increase from a few months ago.

Hospitalizations are also at a four-month high. And officials warn that a rise in deaths will likely follow.



Over the last month, daily cases have risen more than 260%, testing is up more than 180%, and hospitalizations are up more than 210%.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 2, 2020)

Actually this can be either the third wave or the first, depending upon how you define a wave. We had the summer spike which could be considered a second wave BUT in most of the country the number of cases never really dropped below the number where you might have considered the spring wave over. The exception is the northeast, where technically we are seeing a second wave.


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## trailhunter (Nov 2, 2020)

Poppy said:


> New Jersey’s latest seven-day rolling average is 1,630 new daily cases — a 30% increase from a week earlier.
> That's also a 500% increase from a few months ago.
> 
> Hospitalizations are also at a four-month high. And officials warn that a rise in deaths will likely follow.
> ...


Ain't there a coronavirus thread already?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 2, 2020)

trailhunter said:


> Ain't there a coronavirus thread already?
> 
> Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk



I think it was shut down finally as this one may also be. Europe is having a "wave" too now I think.


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## trailhunter (Nov 2, 2020)

Shut down? Sheesh.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 2, 2020)

trailhunter said:


> Shut down? Sheesh.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


Yup... as discussion of the virus tends to lead to people getting bent out of shape often online.


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## turbodog (Nov 2, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> Yup... as discussion of the virus tends to lead to people getting bent out of shape often online.



Hang on while I grab my fainting couch.

To comment on Post #1. Yup. I've been using a 7 day rolling average (to smooth out the huge weekend dip). I've seen it increase from approx 35k/day back on 9-13-2020 to 85k/day now, or 160% increase in 50 days.


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## idleprocess (Nov 3, 2020)

The county I live in is seeing the caseload creep up.


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## bykfixer (Nov 3, 2020)

In before close……lol

It should be no surprise that as people move indoors in parts of the US thanks to Jack Frost returning the number of cases of an easily spread virus would increase. Meanwhile it's part of life across the globe for now. Probably for quite some time to come. 

A virus that on day one ZERO people had ever had it, in a land with 300+ million people who had never had it to think that "only 8 million so far". A land where freedom is paramount my prediction is the number of people who end up with it may double this winter. Yet that still leaves around 300 million people to go. 

My home state has been pretty steady as the number of tests available rose. Case numbers rose but percent tested versus positive stayed pretty steady give or take a few percent. I look for it to spike here too. As the weather cools my company is entering phase 2 of bringing back the office people. In other words 66% of the workers have returned. That may lead to more people spreading it? I'd say so. 

All summer the parking lot of the facility where I work was practically empty. Last Friday it was near full. There are numerous companies in that building with mostly young engineer and college educated people so it will be no surprise to me if by Christmas the place will be empty again.


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## Katherine Alicia (Nov 3, 2020)

England goes into "lockdown" on Thursday and the amount of traffic on the roads is insane! we`re decorating my sons bedroom and went to Ikea to get a few shelves and things and it was impossible to get in, the car park was full and there was a huge que outside? like WHY!? are they all after the Ladda batteries? because that was party why I wanted to go, but I dismissed that thought of so many flashaholics in one place as silly, so now I`m just left with Why!?

Anyway we decided to order online instead (I still may sneak a few packs of Ladda 2450`s in there)


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## Cobra 6 Actual (Nov 3, 2020)

Whatever wave it is, there are several factors that will probably drive up the number of positive cases: Winter (with more people indoors and in close proximity), the Holidays (with family and friends visiting/getting together over Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s Eve), Election Day (people in close proximity), protests (again, people in close proximity), “pandemic fatigue”, flu season (if you get the flu it may have some early signs and symptoms similar to COVID-19), PPE shortages (again), burnout of health and medical professionals (they’ve been at it a long time) ...


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## nbp (Nov 3, 2020)

markr6 said:


> Still just people BS-ing online. I'm stronger than words. Heck, not even words just typing on a keyboard. But it's the admin's decision so I understand that.



This is a privately owned and operated site, and the owner makes rules about how people will be allowed to interact here. There are thousands of places on the internet where people can say whatever they want to each other. This isn’t one of them. Follow the CPF rules or posts will be deleted. I’m pretty sure we’re done offering warnings at this point.


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## archimedes (Nov 3, 2020)

Couple of reasons ....

• because this is a forum about a specific hobby and interest, flashlights and related gear in fact, and conversely not a forum about current events / politics / religion / philosophy / et cetera

• there is no lack of alternative venues available for those other topics

• there is value to be found in having a friendly, kind, and supportive community, where those interested in a particular hobby may gather and share this information in a pleasant environment

• because disagreement is inevitable, moderation will be necessary

As always, complaints about rules tend to be disruptive to the discussion at hand, and virtually always "off-topic"

As you know, multiple corona-related threads have had to be temporarily or permanently locked. It would be better for this thread to return to the main topic, rather than continue down this side-track.

Thank you for your understanding.


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## Poppy (Nov 3, 2020)

Here in the tri-state area, NY, NJ, Connecticut, there has been talk/concern about the upcoming Thanksgiving group gatherings. 

There is also recognition of a new term, "Covid fatigue" meaning that people are tired of locking in, and of "social distancing".

When our states went into "shut down" many of us had very small family "bubbles" but as people went back to work (not virtually), they invariably made their "bubbles" much larger. Due perhaps to, Colder weather and Covid fatigue, people seem to be gathering indoors, more, and their "bubbles" are getting larger. 

As we all know... the virus is ramping up across the Country.

Here are two links that discuss bubbles.

How and why to create a bubble


Why bubbles may be doomed to fail


What are your thoughts about bubbles, and what are your plans (regarding bubble size) for the holidays?


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## jtr1962 (Nov 3, 2020)

Poppy said:


> What are your thoughts about bubbles, and what are your plans (regarding bubble size) for the holidays?


Invariably, somebody in the "bubble" will slip up and that could result in everyone in the bubble getting infected. So no, I think bubbles are a horrible idea. In fact, so is pretending we can return to any semblance of normality until there is a widely distributed, effective vaccine. Every time it's been tried, whether here or in Europe, infections spike to the point that major restrictions, if not shutdowns, become necessary. The only exception seems to be Asian countries, or countries isolated by geography (Australia, New Zealand). The Asian countries are doing very well keeping things open and keeping case rates down by nearly universal mask wearing, extensive contact tracing, and targeted lock downs in places where the virus is detected. Unfortunately, the US and Europe seem to lack the discipline to comply with mask requirements to the extent needed to stop the spread, and any system of contact tracing using, say, phones would probably be met with cries of privacy infringements. Granted, the latter is also of concern in countries like South Korea where it's being used but at least there most of the population realizes it's only a temporary, extraordinary measure needed until the emergency is past.

Back to your question, no get together plans for Christmas or Thanksgiving for us. Maybe Easter if we have success with a vaccine by then but I highly doubt it. I'm looking at fall as the earliest things might start getting back to normal enough to have a get together. In the meantime I'm operating my place like a germ warfare lab. My mom is almost 82 and I can't chance her catching it. At nearly 58, there might be issues for me if I get it also. Basically it's just going to the local grocery about once every two weeks, washing down everything before putting it away, doing the same with stuff I get online, and only going out in my yard. Thankfully we have a yard. While not large by US standards, it's more than a lot of people in NYC isolating in tiny apartments have.


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## Empath (Nov 3, 2020)

archimedes said:


> .................and virtually always "off-topic"



Well said.
Several off-topic posts have been removed.


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## raggie33 (Nov 3, 2020)

Had to take a taxi yesterday I was terrified one guy had a mask on one was in a what looked like a homemade barrier


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## bykfixer (Nov 3, 2020)

I looked at stats for my state for the first time in a while. Looking at the graph it looks like our second wave hit in August and one day total in that month had way more cases then even during the initial wave. The curve is rising for a third peak and percent positive is about 14%, which is also a third wave if one looks at graphs and charts. 

I think we are in phase 3 or something but I really haven't been keeping up with the news. I tuned out in July and August beyond 30 second soundbites on the half hour on the radio (sometimes). I just know my favorite steak joint still has every other table closed, about 90% of people in stores wear mouth and nose cover, and the wheels on the bus are still going round and round. I heard there was a baseball tournament but don't know who won. 

Schools are open in my city. So far so good. But if trends continue they may halt in person learning after the Thanksgiving break for a while.


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## Poppy (Nov 6, 2020)

This morning's news reported that there were three Halloween parties in Wayne, NJ that spread Corona to the extent that so many became infected, and there were so many at the parties that they can not effectively contact trace all who may have been exposed. As a result, they closed the entire school district for fourteen days. They went all virtual.

People from other communities were at the parties as well, so there will likely be further ramifications.

Each, NJ and NY have had about 2,500 new cases yesterday, and as a result of the recent surges, hospitalizations have significantly increased.

Currently both Governors are imploring people to NOT increase the size of their social circles, and the NJ Governor is asking people to stay within their family *household* bubble for Thanksgiving and other holidays.

Additional restrictions are forthcoming.

Not looking good.


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## Katherine Alicia (Nov 6, 2020)

My daughter came home from school in tears, she`d been back 4 days after being sent home for 2 weeks, and now she has to spend another 2 weeks at home again!
this is her final year before College, and she`s missing mock exams and course work, she`s been accepted into college IF she gets her projected grades, but at this rate it`s going to be a serious struggle


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## turbodog (Nov 6, 2020)

Hospitals are in deficit here. Yesterday we were 9 beds short of ICU capacity. Not sure where they stashed those people... weather's been nice, maybe outside in the fresh air???


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## raggie33 (Nov 6, 2020)

is it safe to eat cold food? like a salad from a restaurant. i assume hot food would kill the covid 19 virus. but can i eat cold food?


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## nbp (Nov 7, 2020)

It’s exceptionally unlikely that you would get C19 from food unless someone was literally spitting in it and then you rubbed the slobber food on your face. Haha. The viral load that makes it onto a plate is vanishingly small and you swallow it quickly where it then ends up in the inhospitable stomach. Any viral particles have little to no opportunity to really latch onto a mucous membrane as they need to.


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## raggie33 (Nov 7, 2020)

nbp said:


> It’s exceptionally unlikely that you would get C19 from food unless someone was literally spitting in it and then you rubbed the slobber food on your face. Haha. The viral load that makes it onto a plate is vanishingly small and you swallow it quickly where it then ends up in the inhospitable stomach. Any viral particles have little to no opportunity to really latch onto a mucous membrane as they need to.


cool times been lean here so when i was surprised with a plate of barbq i was so hungry i ate it. but then i started to worry


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## Hooked on Fenix (Nov 7, 2020)

Looking forward to Thanksgiving with family in California. Governor Newsom put a limit on three families, outside only, for a maximum of two hours. I'm so glad that the courts overturned all of his executive orders as none were based on existing law or were approved by the legislature. I don't know where he would have found a single cop to leave their family on Thanksgiving (probably ignoring the order themselves) to trespass on private property without a warrant to fine or arrest people for peaceably assembling in their own homes for a holiday celebration. I'll be thankful to be able to see friends and family. I don't think anyone should take that for granted this year. I hope you all stay safe as doing things outdoors no longer is an option with winter coming.


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## bykfixer (Nov 7, 2020)

I saw that Newsome directive HoF and spit my coffee all over the place laughing. I was like "yeah, right, uh huh"……

I can see it now, drones flying over back yards "this is LA County unit xt437 calling in a gathering at 1313 mockingbird lane, our dna checks found that 4 families have been gathered for 3 hours and 22 minutes, and two persons have a temperature of 101.5 degrees, send in the SWAT, over"………

It's on the re-rise no doubt. If you do gather make sure to have very good air circulation in your home and do all the other stuff you've been doing. Run a ceiling fan or other fans.


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## turbodog (Nov 7, 2020)

Moral of the story... eat outside!


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## Poppy (Nov 7, 2020)

I don't know why they don't have directives regarding how many changes of air an hour, per so many cubic feet, and per so many occupants.

There has to be someone who can do the math. Years ago I wrote a short program for a friend of mine to use as a BTU calculator for air conditioning. If *I* could do that, certainly someone smarter than me can do a Covid load calculator.

When my daughter was running a fever, and we didn't know if it was covid, we kept a window open at one end of the house, and we had an exhaust fan in the window of her bedroom. She stayed in her bedroom which was negatively pressurized.


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## raggie33 (Nov 7, 2020)

If this don't end soon ill be scared ordering food online isn't cheap. Plus its so hard to wear a mask in winter my glasses fog up so much I can't see at all..


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 7, 2020)

Poppy said:


> I don't know why they don't have directives regarding how many changes of air an hour, per so many cubic feet, and per so many occupants.
> 
> There has to be someone who can do the math. Years ago I wrote a short program for a friend of mine to use as a BTU calculator for air conditioning. If *I* could do that, certainly someone smarter than me can do a Covid load calculator.
> 
> When my daughter was running a fever, and we didn't know if it was covid, we kept a window open at one end of the house, and we had an exhaust fan in the window of her bedroom. She stayed in her bedroom which was negatively pressurized.



This guy did some of the math. It depends on room size and how many people are in the room. Interestingly, CO2 levels can be used to determine whether a room is getting enough fresh air. Since the virus rides on exhaled air which contains CO2, the concentration of this gas is a useful analog for virus concentration. Outdoor CO2 levels are around 400 ppm, and a well ventilated room can have up to 800 ppm, according to the article.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Nov 7, 2020)

Ventilation and Air Quality for Reducing Transmission of COVID-19
Good ventilation and indoor air quality are important in reducing airborne exposure to viruses, including SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19, as well as other disease vectors, chemicals, and odors. However, buildings vary in design, age, Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, and their ability to provide adequate ventilation and air filtration.
The American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers
(ASHRAE) underscores the importance of ventilation and air filtration in reducing the transmission of COVID-19 through the position statement: “Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through the air is sufficiently likely that airborne exposure to the virus should be controlled. Changes to building operations, including the operation of heating, ventilating, and air- conditioning (HVAC) systems, can reduce airborne exposures. Ventilation and filtration provided by heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems can reduce the airborne concentration of SARS-CoV-2 and thus the risk of transmission through the air. Unconditioned spaces can cause thermal stress to people that may be directly life threatening and that may also lower resistance to infection. In general, disabling of heating, ventilating, and air- conditioning systems is not a recommended measure to reduce the transmission of the virus.” _(Source: __ASHRAE__)_
The main goal in reducing airborne transmission of viruses is to decrease the number of viral particles that accumulate in indoor air, by increasing the intake of outdoor air as much as possible and/or through effective air filtration. However, ventilation and air filtration are not effective alone – they are tools that must be used along with other measures such as health screenings, physical distancing, reducing building occupancy, frequent hand washing, wearing face coverings, and implementing appropriate cleaning and disinfection protocols. Additionally, when there are high levels of outside air pollution, such as during a wildfire smoke event, outside air intakes will need to be modified as necessary.
Because each building and its existing HVAC systems will be different, a professional engineer or HVAC specialist should be consulted to determine the best way to maximize the system’s ventilation and air filtration capabilities for each specific room in the building. More detailed guidance can be found in CDC’s Interim Guidance for Businesses and Employers Responding to COVID-19 (May 2020), and the ASHRAE Guidance for Re-Opening Buildings. Guidance for schools can be found in CDC’s guidance for improving ventilation and increasing filtration inschools, the ASHRAE guidelines for schools and universities, and the ASHRAE guidance for the re-opening of schools.






























1



General Considerations


Upgrade filters to MERV 13 if the system can handle the air resistance.
Change filters as needed (clogged filters decrease HVAC operation, stress the fan
motors, and decrease ability to improve indoor air quality). Visually inspect monthly.
Inspect and clean entire systems. Make repairs quickly to prevent more serious issues.
Reduce recirculation of air, increase/maximize outside air.
Maintain humidity of 40-60%.
Bring in outside air prior to occupancy and after, especially while cleaning and
disinfection is occurring.
Buildings with an Existing HVAC System


Adjust the HVAC system to allow the maximum amount of outside air to enter the program space. Disable demand-controlled ventilation to bring in more outside air. Reduce recirculation of air.
Clean unit ventilators, upgrade filters if possible, and adjust for maximum outside air.
Visually check outside air dampers to make sure they are open.
Assess units to determine if filters can be upgraded to MERV 13-14, or the highest MERV
that will not significantly diminish airflow. Ensure that filters fit tight.
For existing HVAC systems that cannot be upgraded, optimize as much as possible and
consider supplementing with other measures (see below).
Flush the building’s indoor air two hours before and two hours after occupancy and
always when cleaning and disinfecting.
There is no special cleaning or disinfection for (HVAC) systems. Cleaning the
system or filters with disinfectants is not recommended and not necessary.
Clean and service HVAC unit on a regular schedule (check with HVAC specialist).
Buildings that DO NOT have an Existing HVAC System
Opening windows:


Open windows and doors if it is safe and weather allows, and include more outside time during the day.
Reduce occupancy in areas where outdoor ventilation cannot be increased to the optimal amount.





Inspect and maintain local exhaust ventilation in restrooms, kitchens, cooking areas, labs, etc. Increase exhaust ventilation from restrooms above code minimums.
Work with building engineer or HVAC specialist to generate air movement that goes

from clean-to-less-clean air through positioning of air supply and exhaust air diffusers
and/or dampers.
• If there are ceiling fans, reverse the flow direction to draw air upward or turn them off.


• Use fans to increase the effectiveness of open windows. Position fans securely and carefully in or near windows so as not to induce potentially contaminated airflow





2



directly from one person over another (strategic window fan placement in exhaust mode (e.g., blowing out of the window) can help draw fresh air into room via other open windows and doors without generating strong room air currents).
• Ventilate building or room 2 hours before and after occupancy.



• Use of fans for cooling is acceptable. They should blow away from people. Portable air filtration:


Portable HEPA air cleaners can supplement ventilation and are most critical in rooms with poorer ventilation or in isolation areas.
Unit air ratings are based on the square footage of the room and the Clean Air Delivery Rate (CADR). This guide provides a useful tool to calculate ventilation rates for indoor space(s): Harvard-CU Boulder Portable Air Cleaner Calculator for Schools.
The equivalent of at least 5-6 air changes per hour is recommended.
Consider the noise rating as some units can be quite loud. Consult with the
manufacturer before purchasing. The Clean Air Delivery Rate is at the highest speed, which will be too loud for some environments. Choose one rated for a larger size room and run it on the low fan speed to reduce the noise, or use two for the room.
Units should be pointed so they do not blow air across occupants (e.g., from one individual to others).
Air filtration should be maximized in the space 2 hours before and after occupancy.
Choose HEPA air cleaners certified by the California Air Resources Board to not emit
dangerous levels of ozone.
Do not use ozone generators, electrostatic precipitators and ionizers, or negative ion air
purifiers because they can produce harmful by-products.
Do not use personal air purifiers.
HEPA filters should be replaced regularly as recommended by the manufacturer. The
unit should be vacuumed and cleaned on a regular schedule – this should be done outside. Filter disinfection is not needed or recommended.
Additional Considerations
Restrooms:
More COVID-19 Information and Resources









• If toilets have lids, instructions should be given to shut them during flushing.



Ensure restroom exhaust fans are functional and operate at full capacity 24/7.
Install paper towels to dry hands, disconnect hand dryers (blowers).
Ensure that face coverings are worn in the bathroom.
Ensure that all drain traps are primed (water flow maintained regularly).


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## Poppy (Nov 8, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> This guy did some of the math. It depends on room size and how many people are in the room. Interestingly, CO2 levels can be used to determine whether a room is getting enough fresh air. Since the virus rides on exhaled air which contains CO2, the concentration of this gas is a useful analog for virus concentration. Outdoor CO2 levels are around 400 ppm, and a well ventilated room can have up to 800 ppm, according to the article.


PhotonWrangler,
Thanks so much for that link.

IMO, I think that more people will comply with "executive orders" if they become educated on the topic, IE they are informed WHY certain decisions are made. IE The science behind the decision. 

I took this from the link you posted:
"Environmental engineers like me quantify how much outside air is getting into a building using a measure called the air exchange rate. This number quantifies the number of times the air inside a building gets replaced with air from outside in an hour.

While the exact rate depends on the number of people and size of the room, most experts consider roughly *six air changes an hour to be good for a 10-foot-by-10-foot room with three to four people in it.* In a pandemic this should be higher, with one study from 2016 suggesting that an exchange rate of nine times per hour reduced the spread of SARS, MERS and H1N1 in a Hong Kong hospital."

That means that ALL of the air in a 10' x 10' room with 3-4 people in it, should be flushed/replaced with fresh outside air every 10 minutes. If you have a Thanks giving dinner and 6-8 people are sitting around the dining table, you should replace the air in the room every 5 minutes! Just pushing it around with fans does nothing.

According to this article and the one posted by ChaunceyGardiner, if you can't get enough fresh, replacement air, then you have to filter it. If you have a ceiling fan, you should set it to draw air upwards, or better yet, turn it OFF.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 8, 2020)

Thanks Poppy and Chauncey, this is what I took away from the articles also. Keeping an adequate air exchange rate during Thanksgiving dinner in colder climates is going to be a challenge. The average home HVAC system is probably not prepared for this. The best that can probably be done in these cases is to leave the furnace fan running continuously as well as any bathroom/kitchen fans that vent to the outside, and leave some windows cracked open. A better choice would be to postpone any large family gathering until it's safe.


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## c_year (Nov 8, 2020)

after all this time ( it has almost been a year now right ?) im kinda losing hope ! i dont think we are ever going to get through this. i cant remember pre-corona times !


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## idleprocess (Nov 8, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Keeping an adequate air exchange rate during Thanksgiving dinner in colder climates is going to be a challenge. The average home HVAC system is probably not prepared for this.



All the residential HVAC system designs I'm aware of in my region cannot achieve this at all - they only recirculate air within the home. This is good for efficiency - keep all that just-heated/cooled air within the structure - but terrible for air exchange.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 8, 2020)

idleprocess said:


> All the residential HVAC system designs I'm aware of in my region cannot achieve this at all - they only recirculate air within the home. This is good for efficiency - keep all that just-heated/cooled air within the structure - but terrible for air exchange.



So without extraordinary measures, Thanksgiving will likely be a superspreader event across the country.

In more optimistic news, MIT is developing an app that can allegedly sense the presence of Covid in asymptomatic people by using A/I to analyze the sound of their cough.


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## turbodog (Nov 8, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> So without extraordinary measures, Thanksgiving will likely be a superspreader event across the country.
> 
> ...



Looks like it. My numbers are tracking high, very high. Usually the weekend cases dropoff... things are so on fire right now that even the 'low' weekend numbers are still 'high'.

Usually I can get a pretty good handle on the math behind case growth. Right now, it's growing significantly beyond what it was 2-4 weeks ago and the rate of growth is also increasing.

Shortest way to describe it is by calling it an exponential exponential curve right now, and that's not a typo.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 8, 2020)

Turbodog did you ever figure out what the “vaccines” actually were?


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## turbodog (Nov 8, 2020)

bigburly912 said:


> Turbodog did you ever figure out what the “vaccines” actually were?



First I have thought about it... been preoccupied w/ election and a pinched nerve. I reached out to my source, the one present during the announcement. Will post back here if they can get an update.


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 8, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> So without extraordinary measures, Thanksgiving will likely be a superspreader event across the country.
> 
> In more optimistic news, MIT is developing an app that can allegedly sense the presence of Covid in asymptomatic people by using A/I to analyze the sound of their cough.


Sounds odd to me, isn't coughing a symptom to begin with?


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## bigburly912 (Nov 8, 2020)

Agreed. If you are coughing you are not asymptomatic


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 8, 2020)

bigburly912 said:


> Agreed. If you are coughing you are not asymptomatic



They're talking about forcing a cough for the microphone. Apparently there's something different in the spectral distribution of the sound of the cough that can be picked up by A/I.


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 8, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> They're talking about forcing a cough for the microphone. Apparently there's something different in the spectral distribution of the sound of the cough that can be picked up by A/I.


Still sounds fishy, a common cold or allergies could cause a cough also.


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## Poppy (Nov 9, 2020)

Poppy said:


> PhotonWrangler,
> Thanks so much for that link.
> 
> IMO, I think that more people will comply with "executive orders" if they become educated on the topic, IE they are informed WHY certain decisions are made. IE The science behind the decision.
> ...


Using this calculator
https://www.industrialfansdirect.com/pages/exhaust-fan-cfm-calculator
I entered 10x10x8 sized room and clear it in 5 minutes:
The result is 176 CFM is needed to do the job

I entered 12x14x8 sized room and clear it in 5 minutes:
The result is 296 CFM to do the job.

It appears that the capacity of a popular ducted range hood is about 190 CFM.


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## markr6 (Nov 9, 2020)

I'm sure restaurants are a big spreader. Around here you go in and everyone is sitting back to back in a booth. Maybe 2', not 6'. In the bar area people are sitting shoulder to shoulder.

Are restaurants just rolling the dice they get away with it? Don't care? It's bizarre.


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## bykfixer (Nov 9, 2020)

if I went in a place like that right now I'd turn around and leave. We rarely eat out right now but if we do it's in a place with every other table closed.


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## raggie33 (Nov 9, 2020)

ben carson now has it


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## bigburly912 (Nov 9, 2020)

Vaccine news: https://apple.news/A41uebd2-RZSjWb43gNGAFA


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Nov 9, 2020)

There are systems available for providing residential fresh air, while capturing and returning a large percentage of heat, but they're expensive.


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## idleprocess (Nov 9, 2020)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> There are systems available for providing residential fresh air, while capturing and returning a large percentage of heat, but they're expensive.



I happen to own an air-to-air heat exchanger, however it's integral to my _car_ thus I can't really put those CFMs of heat exchange to work.

Device in the video looks to hope to average the temperatures between intake and exhaust. The humidity transfer suggests some controlled permeability which also makes one wonder about the service life of the core material. Retrofitting an existing closed-loop HVAC system would be a non-trivial expense and engineering effort since the ratio of exchange would likely need to vary.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Nov 9, 2020)

A couple more devices, one has a humidity control device. The video also shows the heat retainment numbers. 

FWIW -


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## bykfixer (Nov 9, 2020)

I watched a video of a celebration atmosphere and 8 folks passed around a bottle of bubbly. Each would pull down their mask, take a swig put their mask back up and pass it to the next person who would pull down their mask and do the same. 

I scratched my head pondering if they really do not understand how viruses spread or what.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 9, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> I watched a video of a celebration atmosphere and 8 folks passed around a bottle of bubbly. Each would pull down their mask, take a swig put their mask back up and pass it to the next person who would pull down their mask and do the same.
> 
> I scratched my head pondering if they really do not understand how viruses spread or what.



And it looks like the end of that Notre Dame game might become a superspreader event.


----------



## Chauncey Gardiner (Nov 9, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> I watched a video of a celebration atmosphere and 8 folks passed around a bottle of bubbly. Each would pull down their mask, take a swig put their mask back up and pass it to the next person who would pull down their mask and do the same.
> 
> I scratched my head pondering if they really do not understand how viruses spread or what.



I might do a similar celebration when the time comes, but only with some Wild Turkey 101.


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## turbodog (Nov 9, 2020)

few quick updates:

1. regarding vaccine order. nothing yet, but the low temp freezers are waiting.
2. our ICU deficit continues to grow. more than one large hospital in the capital area has c-19 waiting to xfer to icu. apparently they slap a mask on the patient and leave them in the ER for now. some/all of the ER rooms a negative pressure.
3. numbers (and the rate of increase) continue to climb... stuff's about the hit the fan. hospital I prefer to use is in c-19 icu deficit and is instructing ambulances to call ahead and see if ANY patient can be accepted.


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## raggie33 (Nov 9, 2020)

deleted


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## nbp (Nov 9, 2020)

Ooof. Let’s not go down that path Rags. Thanks bro.


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## raggie33 (Nov 9, 2020)

cool i deleted it


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## Poppy (Nov 10, 2020)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> A couple more devices, one has a humidity control device. The video also shows the heat retainment numbers.
> 
> FWIW -



With a quick search, it seems that the small residential units will do 75 to 150 CFM. I imagine that commercial units can do a lot more. And a lot more will be necessary for more densely populated establishments such as restaurants.

I'm thinking that the guidelines laid down for in-door activities, such as dining etc. should take into account the rate of air exchange. Indoor capacity can be increased with a higher air exchange. It seems that a simple 25% capacity is arbitrary. 

Units like these can help a business to increase it's air exchange rate, while not seeing its heating and cooling costs skyrocket, although they will still go up. Certainly there would have to be an incentive for a business to spend the initial funds for purchase and installation, and the ongoing costs of exchanging heated, or cooled air for outside air.


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## bykfixer (Nov 10, 2020)

On the way to work a lady on the radio who works for a pharmecudical company was giving updates on the vaccine(s) telling of how 150k people using the Pfeizer one and 60k the Johnson and Johnson one are progressing and the good news is both trials are showing great signs thus far. She spoke of the typical patient shows significant decline in antibodies a few weeks after recovering from the virus so there will likely be a booster shot in a few weeks after the first one for best results. She was using the hepititis B shot in the 1980's as an example stating in 2020 the shot for that is much better after advances in technology and knowledge in general has taken place. 

For now this is amazing news. The biggest obstacle for mass distribution at this point besides time to see the results is the -80 degree storage temperature neccessary for doses. She said some places will be able to handle that but "your local doctor" probably won't. I took that to mean companies like CVS, Rite Aid etc will probably be the sources for the shots.


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## Poppy (Nov 10, 2020)

> I took that to mean companies like CVS, Rite Aid etc will probably be the sources for the shots.



I think it was a week or two ago that it was announced that CVS and Walgreens are already contracted to handle it.


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## Poppy (Nov 10, 2020)

I saw on this morning's news that both FedX and UPS are preparing freezer trucks.


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## markr6 (Nov 10, 2020)

Too bad it has to be kept so cold. Things would be a lot easier...but we'll get it handled!

That ought to give the petro guys justification to jack gas back up to about $4.05/gal right? After everyone stops making cars


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## Poppy (Nov 10, 2020)

NJ had more than 3700 NEW cases yesterday.
A few months ago we had 300 new cases a day.

Like turbodog said, things are ramping up.

Thanksgiving is a couple of weeks away, and by then things will be worse.
We plan to stay at home, just the four of us. Our own little family bubble.
We'll zoom or facetime others, but we'll stay safe, and hope that they stay safe too.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 10, 2020)

Another station crew member had it. Only symptoms at all was loss of taste and smell. No fever no cough no headache no stomach problems. That’s scary. I asked my wife about it and she said at least 75% of her patients testing positive have had no other symptoms besides loss of smell/taste as well


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 10, 2020)

I read an article about a study from India where they were focusing on the loss of taste and smell, since the vast majority of patients experienced it. In a nutshell, they said that a valid quick check for this symptom is to see if you can smell peppermint and coconut.


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## turbodog (Nov 11, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I read an article about a study from India where they were focusing on the loss of taste and smell, since the vast majority of patients experienced it. In a nutshell, they said that a valid quick check for this symptom is to see if you can smell peppermint and coconut.



I prefer to do my smell/taste test with some good wine. So far I've tested myself 30+ times today alone!


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## bigburly912 (Nov 11, 2020)

turbodog said:


> I prefer to do my smell/taste test with some good wine. So far I've tested myself 30+ times today alone!



HA!!! Gotta be vigilant with that testing. [emoji16]


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## idleprocess (Nov 11, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I read an article about a study from India where they were focusing on the loss of taste and smell, since the vast majority of patients experienced it. In a nutshell, they said that a valid quick check for this symptom is to see if you can smell peppermint and coconut.



I'm _*hosed*_ - my sense of smell is perhaps 10% as acute as the average person's on a good day. On an average day I might not consciously perceive a scent at all beyond being able to state that something really strong _has a scent_.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Nov 11, 2020)

I think all of these orders to do everything outside are going to have to change as we approach winter. You're more likely to get sick in the cold, wind, rain, and snow than you are indoors where it's warm. They'll have to allow businesses to operate fully indoors again or shut everything down again as outdoor dining doesn't go over well in the snow. I would also appreciate it if they stopped passing laws they can in no way legally enforce. Newsom's Thanksgiving order stopped just short of telling us to scrub the toilet after every use and how many sheets of t.p. we are allowed to wipe our butts with.


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## turbodog (Nov 11, 2020)

USA 7 day rolling average is now ~130k a day, only 20 days ago it was half that, or 65k. 40 days before that it was 35k.

We are getting ready for schools to shutdown again as several entire classrooms of kids are already at home. One more classroom outbreak and they shut the school down.

MS governor still has not mandated statewide masks... picking and choosing counties.

Like they say in the 'groundhog day' movie, 'it's gonna be a long cold winter'.


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## markr6 (Nov 12, 2020)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Newsom's Thanksgiving order stopped just short of telling us to scrub the toilet after every use and how many sheets of t.p. we are allowed to wipe our butts with.



LOL I think of that time years ago when Sheryl Crow told us we only needed "one square of TP per visit". I don't know what she's eating, but I'm lucky to get a "no-wiper" maybe once a month. And I still use more than one square just to check.

Thanksgiving is a total failure. We're not getting together at all.


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## raggie33 (Nov 13, 2020)

if im reading corect 130 ss members have covid. i didnt even know we had that many


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 13, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> if im reading corect 130 ss members have covid. i didnt even know we had that many




That's astonishing but not too surprising. Gotta wear a mask regardless of who or what you're guarding. There are SS offices all over the country. They do other stuff besides protecting POTUS.


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 13, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> if im reading corect 130 ss members have covid. i didnt even know we had that many


According to google there are about 7500 people total with about 3000 special agents not sure how many assigned to protection though so if infection rates nationally are around 1% that means 30 would be infected out of 3000 and 130 means about 4% of them and considering the occupation that isn't a huge number as other occupations may have even a higher chance of getting covid like health workers.


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## matrixshaman (Nov 14, 2020)

I challenge everyone to watch this video : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcm8Sc8f66o and still believe that this in not a scam of epic proportions. So much verifiable facts and real science presented in this video that if you persist in believing all the malarkey that will end up being the end of life as we have known and a nightmare for you and everyone.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 14, 2020)

Tom woods makes excellent drive shafts


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## idleprocess (Nov 14, 2020)

matrixshaman said:


> I challenge everyone to watch this video


I'm not inclined to watch that entire ~20 minute video of manufactured outrage and strawman rhetoric when it could be a <5-minute read, which is about what I gave it.

Here's a routinely-updated feature from _The Economist_ going over excess deaths. Mercifully, the practice of treating COVID has undergone rapid improvement as the pandemic ground on and outcomes are improving - if you're going to get it, _later is better_. But let's hope that flu season this doesn't drive us past the Summer 2020 peaks.



matrixshaman said:


> and still believe that this in not a scam of epic proportions.


Successful conspiracies are generally small in scale, small in scope, and endeavor _*not*_ to draw attention to themselves : _three may keep a secret if two of them are dead_. COVID-19 is none of these things by huge margins.


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## Poppy (Nov 14, 2020)

matrixshaman said:


> I challenge everyone to watch this video



I elected to NOT accept the challenge.
sarcasm: Thanks for the offer.


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## raggie33 (Nov 14, 2020)

what we need is a stable genius . bill gates? money can fix anything


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## Kestrel (Nov 14, 2020)

matrixshaman said:


> I challenge everyone to watch this video [edit: link deleted] and still believe that this in not a scam of epic proportions. So much verifiable facts and real science presented in this video that if you persist in believing all the malarkey that will end up being the end of life as we have known and a nightmare for you and everyone.



OK;

-----

"Most people won't even know they have this thing." <- /any/ talking head can say something like this.
But supplying /zero/ supporting statistics behind that blatant statement? A preview of how weak his presentation will be right there.

His main point from ~2:00 until ~halfway through is anti-lockdown; "What a sick deranged cult this is".
Bold words; but without supporting those very inflammatory words, he undermines the strength he hopes to build for his position.

"[Sweden] was told 'such-and-such' [and then it didn't turn out so bad]". No citation provided for the supposedly- over-the-top warning.
Of course he easily then dismantles his inaccurate representation of the other side of the argument. 

"The media has distorted this so badly"; /How/ badly ? No supporting citation.

-----

Getting into the meat of the video, his main argument is a classic strawman argument:

"*We were told that if we wore masks, this thing would be over quickly*"; um no, masks have not been sold as this sort of panacea.

He graphs the mask mandate vs cases (through Europe), and attempts to show that mask wearing doesn't have an effect on cases.
But he makes no effort whatsoever to isolate for other variables. What is the degree of compliance ? Voluntary proactive citizens doing a good job before the mandate ? Did mask wearing actually increase after the mandate ? What about travel restrictions ? Comparison with South Korea or Japan ? (crickets)

His only non-European supporting data for this argument is *four counties in Tennessee* - seriously ! Are you friggin' kidding me ??
Am I supposed to assume that four counties in TN represent the entirety of the US and /all/ of Asia (from which he conveniently takes no data at all).

The deal with all of the above is this - he builds a weak straw man argument, then proceeds to cherry-pick data to support his teardown of it.

He mocks Slate magazine, and we're supposed to believe that represented /all media/ - so we're supposed to throw all media reporting out ??

His concluding statement: "At one point or another, you have to assess your own level of risk and live the one life you get."

Well, duh :duh2:; Unfortunately that common-sense, 'Chinese Fortune-Cookie' perspective is completely divorced from the amateur-night theatrics that he attempts to pass off as solid arguments.

-----

Bottom line, you suggest that the whole thing is a 'scam of epic proportions' and use this weak-*** narrow-focus video (anti-lockdown, and masks not having an apparently-significant effect) to support that argument ?

That's it - I gave it a shot & watched your suggested video, and it utterly fails to support your broad brush generalizations that you've been trumpeting here for all this time.
Please note that any further nonsense such as this will be summarily deleted, at a minimum.

I am 100% with Empath on this; find another forum to spread this claptrap - it will no longer be tolerated on CPF.
I am only taking this hard of a line after evaluating the value of this cited presentation - and found it lacking.

Best regards,


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## Kestrel (Nov 14, 2020)

For those who would rather not go through my longer post above; what seems to be the main point of the presenter begins with the statement, and I quote:

"*We were told that if we wore masks, this thing would be over quickly*" <- setting up a 'straw man' argument, not representative of the general scientific consensus in that regard.
He then proceeds to dismantle that argument - surprise surprise. 

If an amateur-night presentation such as this is supposed to convince us that it is all a "scam of epic proportions" (your words), it totally fails to deliver on that promise.

Please desist with trying to pass off substandard content as something worthy of membership attention.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 14, 2020)

I still like his drive shafts.


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## Poppy (Nov 14, 2020)

Kestrel,
When I quoted matrix... I made sure NOT to include a link to the video he posted a link to, because the video will get higher SEO rankings when there are more links to it from other sites.

I didn't even watch it, but knew from matrix's introduction, I didn't want to do anything to promote it.

Poppy.

BTW... thanks for taking the position that you have. 
I don't want to see this crap propagated on our site.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 14, 2020)

Kestrel said:


> "*We were told that if we wore masks, this thing would be over quickly*" <- setting up a 'straw man' argument, not representative of the general scientific consensus in that regard.



He also doesn't control for climate and activities, i.e. cooler weather causing more people to congregate indoors again. The combination of poor mask compliance and large crowds is a significant factor.


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## ledbetter (Nov 14, 2020)

I find it funny that people are responding to anyone named “matrixshaman” in a serious way.


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## turbodog (Nov 14, 2020)

After the first thread got so heated, off topic, etc I was hesitant about this one. So far I'm pleasantly surprised. I suggest we drop the post-du-jour and move on. Kestrel's response has said enough.


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## idleprocess (Nov 15, 2020)

turbodog said:


> I suggest we drop the post-du-jour and move on.



I consider it settled until the poster responds. Although we've got another venue better suited to that avenue of discussion.


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## orbital (Nov 15, 2020)

Kestrel said:


> ...Please desist with trying to pass off substandard content as something worthy of membership attention.



+

Kestrel, since the Corona threads end up as just incessant diarrhea,
*
please put all those threads in the 'basement'.

*the place would smell alot better


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## KITROBASKIN (Nov 15, 2020)

orbital said:


> +
> 
> Kestrel, since the Corona threads end up as just incessant diarrhea,
> *
> ...



Throw out the wheat as well as the chaff? Come on. We just benefitted from not wasting time on Corona-Clickbait that gets the juices flowing for certain people. Other members bring up valuable perspectives that are sorely absent in the minds of many. 

Lockdown Fatigue: that is what is seen here. Now the state of New Mexico is shuttering close-contact businesses until the end of the month. Some schools that were in-person have gone remote. Current hospitalization rates are more than twice the amount from the worst of early summer. Monday morning armchair quarterbacks question whether a less stringent initial lockdown might not have later caused such fatigue and defiance. At least leadership was not so strident this time; "Make plans for a different kind of Thanksgiving – one without non-household members." . Right before Halloween, those of us who agree to get Amber Alerts on our cellphones got a health alert alarm to not go trick or treating; '*Stay home*...'

Speaking to a parent of our son's friend (that we have not seen for maybe a year) explained that her (usually healthy) husband definitely had the serious symptoms for weeks but recovered (struggling to breathe, fever, inability to hold down or retain food, etc) He got a test but never heard results. He never went to a hospital or saw a doctor. Neither she nor her daughter suffered. I believe in the accuracy of her statements, and wonder how many other people have avoided medical care after infection.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 15, 2020)

KITROBASKIN said:


> those of us who agree to get Amber Alerts on our cellphones got a health alert alarm to not go trick or treating; '*Stay home*...'.



They triggered an Amber Alert for that? I understand the need to get the word out, but this seems like it's not what the system was intended for. Hmm.

Like many other states, our governor is considering additional lockdowns again. Yes it's fatiguing, but we now have FDA approval for one of the two monoclonal antibody treatments with an expected approval for the other one shortly. I'm starting to see a light at the end of this tunnel.


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## deadend (Nov 15, 2020)

I know it does not sound very promising but i dont think we are ever going to be done with this. i mena look all the deaths each day. what hope there is ?


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## jtr1962 (Nov 15, 2020)

Kestrel said:


> If an amateur-night presentation such as this is supposed to convince us that it is all a "scam of epic proportions" (your words), it totally fails to deliver on that promise.
> 
> Please desist with trying to pass off substandard content as something worthy of membership attention.


As one who has argued with many of these covid conspiracy theorists, the common thread is that the "evidence" they present doesn't hold up to even casual scrutiny as you found out. Also, the biggest hole here is how do you suddenly have 200 countries cooperating to perpetuate a conspiracy when historically it's hard to get even a few of them to agree on the same things? If countries cooperated on that level we would have had world peace decades ago.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 16, 2020)

This series of tweets from an ICU nurse is exasperating. There are Covid patients in her ICU, gasping for air, at the same time denying that they can have it because it's a "hoax." What do you say to these people?


----------



## Lynx_Arc (Nov 16, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> This series of tweets from an ICU nurse is exasperating. There are Covid patients in her ICU, gasping for air, at the same time denying that they can have it because it's a "hoax." What do you say to these people?


You do know that sometimes Covid makes people delirious don't you?


----------



## PhotonWrangler (Nov 16, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> You do know that sometimes Covid makes people delirious don't you?



Well that is a valid point. Not sure when the delirium kicks in.


----------



## Kestrel (Nov 16, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> This series of tweets from an ICU nurse is exasperating. There are Covid patients in her ICU, gasping for air, at the same time denying that they can have it because it's a "hoax." What do you say to these people?


My politeness restrains me from posting the first few things that came to mind.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 16, 2020)

Kestrel said:


> My politeness restrains me from posting the first few things that came to mind.



Her Twitter is interesting........


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## turbodog (Nov 16, 2020)

bigburly912 said:


> Her Twitter is interesting........



Yes... real 'boots on the ground' info and feeling.

Feel I should point out something. Some of her tweets are referencing South Dakota. A little while back they were patting themselves on the back for beating/avoiding/etc c-19. 

I ran their numbers and saw clear exponential spread. At that time I knew they hadn't 'won'. The game had started and they were already losing but did not know it (yet).


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## Poppy (Nov 17, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> This series of tweets from an ICU nurse is exasperating. There are Covid patients in her ICU, gasping for air, at the same time denying that they can have it because it's a "hoax." What do you say to these people?


I could only see the first tweet, and I feel badly for her. IMO she has not been prepared for this kind of sh#t.

Certainly those who have been raised by alcoholics, drug addicts, or other abusive parents, may have devised a detachment to others emotional distress. There are others who may be brilliant in their field yet unemotional. And overall unaffected by emotion.

I suggest that this class of patient be transferred to those whose life circumstances, or genetic composition, who can handle this better, have the aberrant patient transferred to them. It is my position that we need to protect the provider of care.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 17, 2020)

Kestrel said:


> My politeness restrains me from posting the first few things that came to mind.


Same here. The only thing I will post is that these people were brainwashed in every sense of the word, insisting their version of reality is real even on their death beds. Really, really sad.

I also wish social media were better at refusing to disseminate any misinformation which is potentially harmful to the health and stability of the nation. That also includes cable networks which should outright refuse to carry these "alternate news" networks. It's one thing to have "Who killed Kennedy?" conspiracy theories, and quite another to continually circulate harmful misinformation in the middle of the greatest public health crisis in over a century. The latter falls into the "yelling fire in a crowded theater" category.


----------



## jtr1962 (Nov 17, 2020)

turbodog said:


> Yes... real 'boots on the ground' info and feeling.
> 
> Feel I should point out something. Some of her tweets are referencing South Dakota. A little while back they were patting themselves on the back for beating/avoiding/etc c-19.
> 
> I ran their numbers and saw clear exponential spread. At that time I knew they hadn't 'won'. The game had started and they were already losing but did not know it (yet).


Here's what I find particularly shocking. Their death rate is now half of states like NY and NJ but will likely be much higher before this is over. The shocking part is that the very low population density should act as a buffer to the spread. It was understandable that covid-19 took off like wildfire in a densely population city like NY with lots of international travelers but the fact things are this bad in South Dakota underscores how outright awfully they handled the situation. Basically it seems like nobody made any attempt at all to stop the spread.

The hospitals seem at the point of getting overwhelmed. Without supportive care, the mortality rate of this thing is probably in the 5% to 10% range.


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## Katherine Alicia (Nov 17, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> This series of tweets from an ICU nurse is exasperating. There are Covid patients in her ICU, gasping for air, at the same time denying that they can have it because it's a "hoax." What do you say to these people?




it`s called `Normalcy Bias`, here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias


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## bykfixer (Nov 17, 2020)

They say the Moderno(?) vaccine can be stored in a normal freezer and has a 94.5% effective rate. Not the pfiezer one. 

Apparently when you call CVS and get put on hold, during the cheryl crow does sunshine on my shoulder muzac there is also an announcement of a vaccine arriving there soon. 

Some pundits are saying this thing will be in the rear view mirror by summer of 021.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 17, 2020)

One of the guys I used to work with has a 3 year old with COVID. She can’t smell or taste anything and they are having a lot of trouble to get her to eat. My aunt has it as well and she is a substitute teacher. It’s hitting this little area of Virginia pretty hard right now. I’d say mask wearing and social distancing is at about 90% compliance.


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## markr6 (Nov 17, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> Some pundits are saying this thing will be in the rear view mirror by summer of 021.



That would be nice. Lets just hope COVID-20 hasn't already entered the room in the meantime.


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## markr6 (Nov 17, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> This series of tweets from an ICU nurse is exasperating. There are Covid patients in her ICU, gasping for air, at the same time denying that they can have it because it's a "hoax." What do you say to these people?




She's plastered on every news site, including my podunk page. Is she some kind of quasi-celebrity nurse? There are hundreds of similar stories I'm sure but none up front like this. Just curious since I don't do twitter (neither should some others but I won't go there)


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## bigburly912 (Nov 17, 2020)

Pm sent mark


----------



## PhotonWrangler (Nov 17, 2020)

markr6 said:


> She's plastered on every news site, including my podunk page. Is she some kind of quasi-celebrity nurse? There are hundreds of similar stories I'm sure but none up front like this. Just curious since I don't do twitter (neither should some others but I won't go there)



I think her story went viral by sheer chance. There are thousands of nurses who have stories just like hers. She just happened to be the one whose story struck a chord with others. It certainly hit me in the feels.


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## bykfixer (Nov 17, 2020)

A local community in my area is doing a flu shot campaign saying (paraphrasing) "don't forget your flu shot, because if you have the flu you are more succeptable to Covid-19"……

I thought everybody was succeptable, flu or not. 

Your thoughts?


----------



## Lynx_Arc (Nov 17, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> A local community in my area is doing a flu shot campaign saying (paraphrasing) "don't forget your flu shot, because if you have the flu you are more succeptable to Covid-19"……
> 
> I thought everybody was succeptable, flu or not.
> 
> Your thoughts?



I've heard some people that have had prior Covid versions are either resistant or immune to C19 but that is unsubstantiated.
Personally I believe some people are immune to Covid 19 but the "experts" are clueless as to how to know who is and isn't.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 17, 2020)

I've read that it's possible to have both at the same time. That would be truly difficult on your system.


----------



## turbodog (Nov 17, 2020)

jtr1962 said:


> ... The shocking part is that the very low population density should act as a buffer to the spread. It was understandable that covid-19 took off like wildfire in a densely population city like NY with lots of international travelers but the fact things are this bad in South Dakota underscores how outright awfully they handled the situation. ...



Both SD and NY are exponential growth, just at different rates. But in _either_ case, eventually you get to where the graph goes upward in a hurry. It's math... no way around it. I wish I were wrong. It's unnerving how closely actual numbers are tracking to the projections.


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## LeanBurn (Nov 18, 2020)

This is not for conjecture or debate. By way of information. 

From the Astra Zeneca Covid-19 packaging, this is listed on the front as an ingredient (the only one listed on the front):
ChAd0x1-S (recombinant)

Does anyone know what that is? I am about to go look it up..but I am anticipating medical jargon, looking for Coles notes version.


----------



## PhotonWrangler (Nov 18, 2020)

From this article on the Oxford/Astra-Zeneca vaccine - 

_Called AZD1222 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, the viral-vector vaccine is made from a weakened version of a common cold virus that causes infections in chimpanzees._

This is different from the mRNA vaccines that use a shard of the virus' RNA guts to train the immune system.


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## markr6 (Nov 18, 2020)

The hospital down the street from me is one of 5 in the state to get the initial batch. Hopefully they have enough for just the staff...it's a big place. Lots of assisted living places around too, so it's a start. I'm in no hurry personally but will take it next summer when the supply sounds to be catching up.


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## bykfixer (Nov 18, 2020)

They said on the radio today that Pfeizer is now asking the FDA to ok theirs and that they have 20 million doses ready to go. 
In the meantime operation warp speed is supposed to have a military logistics syatem in place to deliver them in a hurry to the initial destinations (like say New York) and be ready to distribute to those sub-destinations like hospitals all lickety split like.


----------



## SilverFox (Nov 18, 2020)

Some good news...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTeWPn7d7VM 

Tom


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 19, 2020)

Interesting - thanks Tom.

Ive seen these devices on TV and they operate at a pulsed rate that looks like 5 hz or so, The video above shows it operating as either a continuous wave or it's pulsed at a rate that's much faster than the camera can see. I've also wondered if it's something about the coherent nature of laser light or if an array of red LEDs operating at the same wavelength would have the same effect.


----------



## SilverFox (Nov 19, 2020)

Hello PhotonWrangler,

It seems the healing comes from the near infrared light spectrum of around 850 nm. Red is used for the surface of the skin but near infrared penetrates without heating up the tissue. 

There is debate over which is more effective concerning pulsed or continuous wave. Both seem to be beneficial.

Tom


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## Poppy (Nov 19, 2020)

I don't think that the Red has any value other than to be an indicator light for the operator.

The clinical trial is scheduled to end mid January. I'd be interested to know the results. Unless things have changed in the last ten years, I don't think that the LLLT gets deep enough to affect the lungs. Maybe 2-3 CM, but not that deep.

I had a friend with bed sores, and thought that perhaps LLLT would be helpful. I don't recall exactly what the research said, but I was discouraged by it.


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## Katherine Alicia (Nov 19, 2020)

Poppy said:


> I don't think that the LLLT gets deep enough to affect the lungs. Maybe 2-3 CM, but not that deep.



yeah, 850nm is still quite a short wavelength for that sort of penetration depth, you need to be in Terahertz at least, to get to any real depth.


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## turbodog (Nov 19, 2020)

If it works, is there enough of them to handle the current patient load?


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 19, 2020)

850nm = 353 terahertz. 

As I understand things (which isn't often!), the shorter the wavelength the less it penetrates. UVB can penetrate the skin enough to cause tanning and sunburn, but far UVC (in the range of eximer lamps) won't penetrate beyond the outermost layer of dead skin and can't penetrate the cornea.

Conversely I would guess that longer IR wavelengths (far IR) would penetrate deeper than shorter ones. At far IR though you get into thermal conductivity questions and things get murkier.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Nov 19, 2020)

California is starting a partial lockdown/ curfew in the purple tier areas (nearly all the state) from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. for nonessential businesses and gatherings for a month starting November 21. I'm pretty sure a judge banned Gavin Newsom from issuing executive orders and everyone is avoiding enforcing the current ones as they were ruled unconstitutional and nobody wants to get sued for illegally bankrupting businesses. Just to be on the safe side, we will not be celebrating Thanksgiving this year as it is limited to 10 people. Instead, we will be holding a funeral service for our dear pet turkey. The deceased will be cremated in the oven at 350 degrees F. Funerals are allowed up to 20 people. If more than 20 people show up, it will be a protest with masks optional (Just watch the news. Protests without masks never caused co-vid spikes.)


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## Poppy (Nov 20, 2020)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> California is starting a partial lockdown/ curfew in the purple tier areas (nearly all the state) from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. for nonessential businesses and gatherings for a month starting November 21. I'm pretty sure a judge banned Gavin Newsom from issuing executive orders and everyone is avoiding enforcing the current ones as they were ruled unconstitutional and nobody wants to get sued for illegally bankrupting businesses. Just to be on the safe side, we will not be celebrating Thanksgiving this year as it is limited to 10 people. Instead, we will be holding a funeral service for our dear pet turkey. The deceased will be cremated in the oven at 350 degrees F. Funerals are allowed up to 20 people. If more than 20 people show up, it will be a protest with masks optional (Just watch the news. Protests without masks never caused co-vid spikes.)


Whether governors decrees are constitutional or not can always be challenged in the courts, and we now have the most conservative Supreme Court in many years. On the other hand, IMO it is important to follow the science. Wear a mask, and keep your distance. If indoors, keep a greater instance. It is most important that there is a change of air calculated by cubic feet per minute, managed by the number of people in a particulate area.

I am happy to report that the line, to get Free Covid19 tests, was about 1000 feet long today (distancing 6 feet apart) at one of our County's test sites, today. I suppose that is due to the media, relying on medical professionals, suggesting that it would be NOT be appropriate to be going to Thanksgiving dinner with Grand Ma, without getting tested first.


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## Johnnyh (Nov 20, 2020)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> California is starting a partial lockdown/ curfew in the purple tier areas (nearly all the state) from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. for nonessential businesses and gatherings for a month starting November 21. I'm pretty sure a judge banned Gavin Newsom from issuing executive orders and everyone is avoiding enforcing the current ones as they were ruled unconstitutional and nobody wants to get sued for illegally bankrupting businesses. Just to be on the safe side, we will not be celebrating Thanksgiving this year as it is limited to 10 people. Instead, we will be holding a funeral service for our dear pet turkey. The deceased will be cremated in the oven at 350 degrees F. Funerals are allowed up to 20 people. If more than 20 people show up, it will be a protest with masks optional (Just watch the news. Protests without masks never caused co-vid spikes.)



LOL! 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Great ideas here!


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## Kestrel (Nov 20, 2020)

An off-topic / political post has been deleted;


mail in ballot voting 
injunctions 
governor executive orders 
CA state legislature 
court rulings 
weblink 
 Thank you,


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## turbodog (Nov 20, 2020)

A little something to think about...

I'm continually tracking/projecting numbers on this thing. I mainly focus on my state (MS), but also dabble in the entire US. I've been saying 'things are about to get bad' for a few weeks now due to increasing numbers, cooler temps, and 3 MAJOR holidays coming up (t'giving through new year).

After what I saw in the numbers just now I'm even more concerned. MS should equal the july/august spike _numbers _in less than a week. Hospitals are already overflowing.

But here's the thing. Our day to day _percent _increase is 1/3 of the july/aug spike. Clearly if we get back to that _rate _then we are in a world of hurt. The more subtle takeaway is that mitigation tools have to be even _more _effective than back then just to 'hold the line'. And we have 3 holidays approaching...

As a family, we have cancelled Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's. So whatever you _were _doing we have to _keep _doing and then even _more _also.

In short, daily growth numbers are driven *exponentially *but they are running up against a *linear *healthcare system and a *declining *mitigation.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 20, 2020)

I postponed a dental appointment today because of the spike. Maybe I'm being overcautious but I'd rather not err on the wrong side of contagion.


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## raggie33 (Nov 20, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I postponed a dental appointment today because of the spike. Maybe I'm being overcautious but I'd rather not err on the wrong side of contagion.



your being smart . we need more people like you.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 20, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I postponed a dental appointment today because of the spike. Maybe I'm being overcautious but I'd rather not err on the wrong side of contagion.


Same here. I had three fillings on my top teeth which decided to come loose earlier this year. First I filled them with the stuff you buy at the local drug store but it only lasted maybe a week. Then I bought composite filling on eBay. Now the fillings last at least a month, often more. That will tide things over until a vaccine lets us get back to normal. Maybe in late 2021 or early 2022 I'll finally feel safe going to the dentist.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 20, 2020)

turbodog said:


> After what I saw in the numbers just now I'm even more concerned. MS should equal the july/august spike _numbers _in less than a week. Hospitals are already overflowing.
> 
> But here's the thing. Our day to day _percent _increase is 1/3 of the july/aug spike. Clearly if we get back to that _rate _then we are in a world of hurt. The more subtle takeaway is that mitigation tools have to be even _more _effective than back then just to 'hold the line'. And we have 3 holidays approaching...
> 
> ...


One thing we have to keep in mind is deaths lag new cases by several weeks. We're already up to 2,000 deaths per day but the new case numbers are something like twice what they were a few weeks ago. Now here's the scary part. As you mentioned, hospitals are starting to overflow in many parts of the country. Once we get into triage situations, the death rates are 5x to 10x what they would be otherwise. I seriously think we might be looking at 10K to 20K deaths per day within a few weeks. I hope not, but if it happens it wouldn't totally surprise me. Also remember it looks like much of the country will be hit as hard or harder than NYC was, and we lost about 0.3% of our population to this back in March and April. Nationally that puts us at 1 million+ deaths if those numbers hold for the entire country.

I honestly don't understand why so many in this country still seem hellbent on celebrating the holidays despite the obvious danger. Now that we have a vaccine there's a light at the end of the tunnel within 6 months to a year. Is it so hard to just give up the holidays for one lousy year, and save thousands of lives in the process? I just don't get. My siblings seemed hurt when I told them no holidays this year. I'd rather we do that than one or more of us are not around to celebrate future holidays. Like I said, I just don't understand the calculus people are making thinking it's a good idea to celebrate the holidays as usual. The holidays come around every year. Death is forever.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 20, 2020)

jtr1962 said:


> Now that we have a vaccine there's a light at the end of the tunnel within 6 months to a year. Is it so hard to just give up the holidays for one lousy year, and save thousands of lives in the process?



This x1000% jtr. It's the right thing to do. And our duty is much easier than that of the front line workers who put their lives on the line every day for us.


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## turbodog (Nov 20, 2020)

Dunno...

I've got one particular client that has about 500 people w/ very little masking in close contact with one another. Can't wait till it hits them...

:shakehead


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## Hooked on Fenix (Nov 20, 2020)

Poppy said:


> Whether governors decrees are constitutional or not can always be challenged in the courts, and we now have the most conservative Supreme Court in many years.



They were. He lost. Under the California Emergency Services Act, Government Code Title 2 Division 1 Chapter 7 Section 8627.5.(b), the governor is limited to 60 days for these lockdowns in regards to restaurants, schools, etc. He didn't go to get them extended by the legislature and instead unilaterally kept renewing them illegally. In the case Gallagher and Kiley v. Newsom, the judge ruled all of Newsom's recent executive orders unconstitutional and banned him from issuing any more that change the law which he needs the legislature to do. He is at it again with a 30 day partial lockdown starting tomorrow.


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## SilverFox (Nov 20, 2020)

Hello Poppy,

On the contrary... Red has been used for years in the burn wards to promote skin healing.

I have experience with near infrared/red combination and in the few cases I have been involved with it promotes healing in the lungs, as well as bone marrow, as well as the brain. The current units available seem to be able to penetrate enough to do the job. 

10 years ago I don't think the equipment or the knowledge of how to use this technology was well developed. There is some "art" associated with using this technology. Cuts, scrapes, bruses, and rashes have all responded well in my experience but I have no experience with bed soars.

Tom


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## SilverFox (Nov 20, 2020)

Hello Turbodog,

It is my understanding that units can be found in most hospital physical therapy wards and burn wards, many veterinarian offices, and many chiropractic offices. In addition some dental offices use this therapy.

In addition many home units are available.

Tom


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## bykfixer (Nov 20, 2020)

The radio said pfeizer is going to ask the fda TODAY to allow use of their vaccine and say by Christmas 50 million doses will have been distributed. The spokesman said they have 20 million ready now and it'll take about 2 weeks to get those out. Theirs is the one that has to be kept super cold and takes a booster to be completely effective. 

There's another one on the cusp of being ready that can be stored in regular freezers. 

And if what I heard is true the vaccine will have no out of pocket cost to the recipient. So the US is close to having the pandemic slowed or halted but I wonder about the other 6+ billion people on planet earth.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Nov 20, 2020)

turbodog said:


> Dunno...
> 
> I've got one particular client that has about 500 people w/ very little masking in close contact with one another. Can't wait till it hits them...
> 
> :shakehead



Can't wait?  What do you mean by that?


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## raggie33 (Nov 20, 2020)

dummy trump jr test positive for covid 19


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## raggie33 (Nov 20, 2020)

donald sorry been a long long day with a toothache


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 20, 2020)

We have about 10% of our "dummy" firefighters here testing positive for C19 they said on the news. I'm sure that they wore masks and distanced whenever possible and still 90 of them got it.


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## raggie33 (Nov 20, 2020)

as said above i mean to type donald. bht had a brain mistake


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## trailhunter (Nov 20, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> We have about 10% of our "dummy" firefighters here testing positive for C19 they said on the news. I'm sure that they wore masks and distanced whenever possible and still 90 of them got it.


Doesn't mean much. They could have went home, wife or kids could have been infected. Fireman goes back to work carrying the infection and infected the crew. So many possibilities. Also wearing a mask doesn't guarantee they won't get infected and unless your wearing an n95 mask with face protection, your more likely to get it than those wearing masks that 90% of the population are using right now.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


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## bigburly912 (Nov 20, 2020)

trailhunter said:


> Doesn't mean much. They could have went home, wife or kids could have been infected. Fireman goes back to work carrying the infection and infected the crew. So many possibilities. Also wearing a mask doesn't guarantee they won't get infected and unless your wearing an n95 mask with face protection, your more likely to get it than those wearing masks that 90% of the population are using right now.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk



You missed some posts above his. He didn’t quote the replied to message


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 20, 2020)

trailhunter said:


> Doesn't mean much. They could have went home, wife or kids could have been infected. Fireman goes back to work carrying the infection and infected the crew. So many possibilities. Also wearing a mask doesn't guarantee they won't get infected and unless your wearing an n95 mask with face protection, your more likely to get it than those wearing masks that 90% of the population are using right now.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


I agree with you. My post was in response of someone calling Trump a dummy. I personally believe that a lot of people infected are innocent victims of this virus as is a lot of people that are unknowingly infecting others. I also believe what you say about the effectiveness of masks which 90% of the people are wearing. What puts an exclamation point on all of this is the health professionals will likely receive the vaccine long before the rest of us which is a testament of high risk and they have the best masks and everything including superior ventillation and sterilization equipment while we have far inferior protection and constantly are barraged by inferences that the "stuff" we do keeps us safe.


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## trailhunter (Nov 20, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> I agree with you. My post was in response of someone calling Trump a dummy. I personally believe that a lot of people infected are innocent victims of this virus as is a lot of people that are unknowingly infecting others. I also believe what you say about the effectiveness of masks which 90% of the people are wearing. What puts an exclamation point on all of this is the health professionals will likely receive the vaccine long before the rest of us which is a testament of high risk and they have the best masks and everything including superior ventillation and sterilization equipment while we have far inferior protection and constantly are barraged by inferences that the "stuff" we do keeps us safe.


Ah gotcha gotcha

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 20, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> I agree with you. My post was in response of someone calling Trump a dummy. I personally believe that a lot of people infected are innocent victims of this virus as is a lot of people that are unknowingly infecting others. I also believe what you say about the effectiveness of masks which 90% of the people are wearing. What puts an exclamation point on all of this is the health professionals will likely receive the vaccine long before the rest of us which is a testament of high risk and they have the best masks and everything including superior ventillation and sterilization equipment while we have far inferior protection and constantly are barraged by inferences that the "stuff" we do keeps us safe.




The front line workers also face a much, much higher density of infectious material than the rest of us do. It appears that the amount of virus that you're exposed to has a significant impact on whether you get sick and how badly.


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## turbodog (Nov 20, 2020)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Can't wait?  What do you mean by that?



I mean it's gonna be a crapshow. And I will be expected to help deal with it.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 21, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> This x1000% jtr. It's the right thing to do. And our duty is much easier than that of the front line workers who put their lives on the line every day for us.


Also, not protecting yourself and helping slow the spread to the best of your ability is like a slap in the face to those front line workers who already have enough to deal with. If everyone just followed the advice of the experts we would have gotten through this with a lot fewer deaths.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 21, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> We have about 10% of our "dummy" firefighters here testing positive for C19 they said on the news. I'm sure that they wore masks and distanced whenever possible and still 90 of them got it.


Masks work great when nearly everyone is wearing them. I'm guessing lots of people weren't, hence the infected firefighters. When a large segment of the population chooses to forgo them they still protect the people wearing them, but the overall effect isn't as good. And saying this as someone who does in fact find a mask uncomfortable, I still don't see what's the big deal with wearing one if you're going to be in situations where you're within maybe 10 feet or less of others. You can take it off the rest of the time, although that has the issue of touching your face after you may have touched objects contaminated by the virus. That's why I just leave it on until I get home and wash my hands first.


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## bykfixer (Nov 21, 2020)

From the CDC: Something to consider this holiday season.


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## turbodog (Nov 21, 2020)

One of the takeaways from this graph:

So the people who comment that only the old/sick die... it appears we are on track for an equal chance for everyone?


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## Poppy (Nov 21, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> From the CDC: Something to consider this holiday season.


This shows that TREATMENT is more effective, and that a smaller percentage DIE.
It doesn't report on the percentage of people who have vascular, connective tissue, lung, neurological, and kidney issues, long after they survived by not dying. My niece (an ER nurse) told me last month that a lot of people, young people, are returning with vascular issues, that ultimately require amputation.

However, there is a missing graph that would help to put this into perspective.
The percentage of people who are infected, and the numbers of people who are in the hospital, and how many hospitals have met capacity, and the medical personal shortage, and how many hospitals are at 70% capacity of ICUs treating covid patients, and how many hospitals are on "divert" status (meaning that they can not accept any new patients).

In NJ we went from about 300 new cases a day a month ago, to 4,600 new cases yesterday. So although the death rate percentage has declined a little over the past month, the infection rate has increased 1,533% so the number of deaths will have increased by a similar percent.

If you are going to consider ANYTHING during the holiday season, consider the advice of the medical professionals who rely on the science and the data, when they make recommendations, to skip family gatherings for the Holidays, and stay within your family cocoon. 

I'll add, that if you CAN'T do that, then if your climate allows, eat outdoors. If not, then put a large exhaust fan in a window and open windows at the opposite side of the house. So at least you'll have an exchange of air.

Happy Holidays, and good luck.


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## raggie33 (Nov 21, 2020)

Loeffler test positive


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## bykfixer (Nov 22, 2020)

Are you applauding when folks you don't like get sick?
Please stop.


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## raggie33 (Nov 22, 2020)

Just people we all know.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 22, 2020)

The rapid tests are a joke. I don’t even know why they are being used. Huge waste of money time and resources.

Senator Loeffler took two COVID tests on Friday morning. Her rapid test results were negative and she was cleared to attend Friday's events. She was informed later in the evening after public events on Friday that her PCR test came back positive, but she was retested Saturday morning after conferring with medical officials and those results came back inconclusive on Saturday evening," said Lawson.

This is why only the PCR tests should be used. People need to be disciplined enough to isolate themselves until they get results. It sucks missing work but wouldn’t you rather know you aren’t going to kill a susceptible coworker? Huge failure rate with the rapid tests and a 50/50 chance it gets it right.


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## turbodog (Nov 22, 2020)

To make a blanket statement about rapid testing being useless is simply inaccurate. They are more useful early in the infection cycle, and like any test, require a valid sample being obtained. Later on, yes, a PCR test is more accurate than a rapid test.

But we get into the problem of a _pandemic_, that there are not enough resources to go around. Rapid comes back in 15 minutes, PCR requires days. And both are sensitive to a valid sample, collected properly, transported properly, 'run' properly, and so on.

And you're asking all this from a healthcare system that's strained to begin with.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 22, 2020)

Agree, let’s just tell everyone they are negative and let them keep spreading it


Edit to add: have you even looked at the failure rates on all of these different tests?

Quidel. 32% 

The Abbott testing the White House was using failed miserably and they are still spreading it throughout all of those guys/gals. (Which is still partly their fault for not following other simple rules to prevent spread). 

Simple to understand my friend, just because a rapid test tells you that you are fine does not mean you are fine.

Edit to add: many people are taking one rapid test and assuming they are fine because they tested negative. That may not always be the case. When I had my rapid test done the doctor asked me if I had any symptoms and I said no none at all but I was exposed. He said ahh you are probably fine. Paid 150 bucks and left.


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## raggie33 (Nov 22, 2020)

never mind ill just be nice


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 22, 2020)

My sense is that the rapid tests are better than nothing but not by much. Under the stress of a pandemic, 'better than nothing' has some value even if it's not always definitive, assuming that the individual being tested has the good sense to remain isolated until a PCR test comes back.

The temperature screenings are another "better than nothing" measure. They're really only going to pick up symptomatic individuals who probably shouldn't be wherever they're being measured. They're going to miss 100% of presymptomatic and asymptomatic people but they still have some value in spotting a portion of the affected public.


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## raggie33 (Nov 22, 2020)

ive asked this before but cant find answer. how do i know what tempature is a fever with me? reason i ask is i typicaly run around 97 f .so do i take that into acct and at 98.6 is consdered a fever for me?


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## jtr1962 (Nov 22, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> ive asked this before but cant find answer. how do i know what tempature is a fever with me? reason i ask is i typicaly run around 97 f .so do i take that into acct and at 98.6 is consdered a fever for me?


I'm also typically in the low 97s, so anything above that I consider a fever. 98.6 is a mild fever for me. 101 or 102 is starting to get serious. In 2004 I caught something bad and got past 104. That would have been like pushing 106 for most people. Thankfully it dropped soon after that.


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## turbodog (Nov 22, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> My sense is that the rapid tests are better than nothing but not by much. Under the stress of a pandemic, 'better than nothing' has some value even if it's not always definitive, assuming that the individual being tested has the good sense to remain isolated until a PCR test comes back.
> 
> The temperature screenings are another "better than nothing" measure. They're really only going to pick up symptomatic individuals who probably shouldn't be wherever they're being measured. They're going to miss 100% of presymptomatic and asymptomatic people but they still have some value in spotting a portion of the affected public.



:thumbsup:


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## bigburly912 (Nov 22, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> My sense is that the rapid tests are better than nothing but not by much. Under the stress of a pandemic, 'better than nothing' has some value even if it's not always definitive, assuming that the individual being tested has the good sense to remain isolated until a PCR test comes back



But the problem is that most people aren’t getting both tests and they are being told by rapid testing that they are fine when that test is more of flipping a coin than anything. 

Better than nothing has No value when it is helping to spread the pandemic. Not everyone is going to self isolate after being exposed and some people certainly won’t if they are told they are negative. I

n the case of the Georgia senator she tested negative **twice** from rapid tests and they were wrong. She was potentially of the assumption she was fine for 2 weeks until her PCR test came back. (Sometimes the tests take longer sometimes they get them back sooner, I’m sure everyone is aware of that though)

How many people would a regular person have spread that to if all they had was a rapid test and thought they were negative?


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## bigburly912 (Nov 22, 2020)

turbodog said:


> To make a blanket statement about rapid testing being useless is simply inaccurate. They are more useful early in the infection cycle



Your wording here is incorrect. Most of The tests are actually way less accurate early in the infection cycle and in people displaying less of a symptomatic response to the virus.


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 22, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> ive asked this before but cant find answer. how do i know what tempature is a fever with me? reason i ask is i typicaly run around 97 f .so do i take that into acct and at 98.6 is consdered a fever for me?



Typically the places that require temperature tests use 101 as their "fever" test gauge. When this virus thing started I zapped my forehead with a laser thermometer almost daily especially when I felt a little off and it varied from 87 to almost 95 degrees it isn't an accurate gauge but since my temperature hasn't spiked out of that range I'm confident I haven't had the "fever" symptom of the virus. It is quite possible I've had it long ago and been asymptomatic. All the years of people having the flu and other colds they have never used asymptomatic as someone "having" something. It may be 5-10 times as many people who got the regular flu were asymptomatic and likewise with other viruses and cold and were also passing them along to others in the past. Personally I think they are rather clueless as to how many asymptomatic people do infect others and how to determine who would be infectious that has no symptoms.


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## turbodog (Nov 22, 2020)

bigburly912 said:


> But the problem is that most people aren’t getting both tests and they are being told by rapid testing that they are fine when that test is more of flipping a coin than anything.
> 
> ...



So what's your better, more realistic, idea? If you are positive, according to your numbers (which I have not checked), you still are ~65% likely to get an accurate, positive result. While far from perfect, being able to confirm infection in 65% of suspected cases is a huge benefit.

I think you're looking at it from the wrong perspective. Agreed, everyone will not isolate, especially when told they are negative. But a large number will... say maybe the 65% that pop positive.

The test itself should be over 90% accurate. If you are seeing those numbers, it's almost certainly because the test is used incorrectly: at wrong stage of infection, bad sample taken, sample transported/handled incorrectly, analyzed incorrectly, etc.

My real-world guess is that those administering/receiving the tests (on people tested every day) are only paying lip service to performing a proper test, whereas a single test at a doctor's office for a random person is performed much more carefully.

This is what we currently have to work with: imperfect tests, belligerent citizens, stressed medical industry, etc. I am thankful that c-19 isn't MORE deadly and a vaccine is at hand.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 22, 2020)

No...... 32% accurate in asymptomatic persons. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...lth/coronavirus-testing-quidel-sofia.amp.html

Granted that is only one of the many tests but there are many that fail miserably.


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## idleprocess (Nov 22, 2020)

turbodog said:


> This is what we currently have to work with: imperfect tests, *belligerent citizens*, stressed medical industry, etc. I am thankful that c-19 isn't MORE deadly and a vaccine is at hand.



Emphasis added because _boy howdy_ is that one of the bigger problems we're facing. 1.1 million dead worldwide from COVID-19, 220,000 of them American; we're about 4% of world population but have experienced about 20% of the casualties. An *effective* vaccine can't come too soon to save us from ourselves so we can return to our normally-scheduled factionalism.


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## LeanBurn (Nov 22, 2020)

I interpret the graph as alignment to the 99% survival rate for covid 19.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 22, 2020)

idleprocess said:


> Emphasis added because _boy howdy_ is that one of the bigger problems we're facing. 1.1 million dead worldwide from COVID-19, 220,000 of them American; we're about 4% of world population but have experienced about 20% of the casualties. An *effective* vaccine can't come too soon to save us from ourselves so we can return to our normally-scheduled factionalism.


+1000

There's nothing I've found more disconcerting throughout this entire episode than the large numbers of people absolutely refusing to do a thing the experts say to slow the spread, but at the same time complaining of the closures and lock downs which may well have largely not been needed if we _had_ successfully controlled the spread. I've heard the electorate is often schizophrenic, but this takes the cake.

The US as of today has 794 deaths per million people. Japan has 16, Hong Kong has 14, South Korea has 10, New Zealand has 5, Vietnam has 0.4, Taiwan has 0.3. Why are mostly Asian countries handling this so much better than us? I'd say because their citizens are more willing to take measures to protect their fellow citizens, even if those measures might sometimes be a little inconvenient. There are more than three orders of magnitude difference in the per capita death rate between the US and the countries which handled it well. If we did even as well as Japan, we would have only around 5,000 deaths instead of over 260,000 and counting. If we did as well as Taiwan, we would have had perhaps 100 deaths. These countries bided their time until a vaccine is available by taking strict measures. As a result, they're going to come out of it with fewer deaths combined than most US states. To say the US response to this has been dreadful is an understatement. Some countries in the EU aren't doing a whole lot better, and again it's often for similar reasons, although in their defense they have much higher population densities than the US.

I agree, a vaccine can't come soon enough since nothing else is going to stop this. I just wonder how many more people will die before the vaccine is widely distributed. The current trends are frightening, to say the least.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 22, 2020)

LeanBurn said:


> I interpret the graph as alignment to the 99% survival rate for covid 19.


That's assuming the hospitals don't get overwhelmed and are able to administer treatments. Without treatment, it's looking like the mortality rate of this is in the area of 5%, which is 50 times more than the worst seasonal flu. About 50% are asymptomatic, 30% get sick but recover at home, and 20% require hospitalization. In NYC in March/April, when we essentially had no effective treatments, and were often resorting to triage, about 25% of that 20% needing to be hospitalized died, sometimes while in the waiting room. That's a 5% mortality rate.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 22, 2020)

Underground swingers party broken up in NYC with 80 attendees......ya know because, priorities. 

They fared much better than the police who tried to shut down a business meeting in Erie county New York earlier this week who were chased off by a mob screaming we will not comply.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 23, 2020)

bigburly912 said:


> ...chased off by a mob screaming we will not comply.



Those people should be arrested and sentenced to spend a day or three in a Covid ward to observe.


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## markr6 (Nov 23, 2020)

jtr1962 said:


> The US as of today has 794 deaths per million people. Japan has 16, Hong Kong has 14, South Korea has 10, New Zealand has 5, Vietnam has 0.4, Taiwan has 0.3. Why are mostly Asian countries handling this so much better than us?



Definitely due to citizens taking it more serious. But I also have to remember those are small islands and peninsulas. Population densities aside, I just think it would be easier to control. Less traffic, travel, entry points, worlds busiest airports, etc.


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## raggie33 (Nov 23, 2020)

you cant fix stupid .


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## markr6 (Nov 23, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> you cant fix stupid .




But just think how much $$ the first person will come into if they every figure out how to.


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## ledbetter (Nov 23, 2020)

markr6 said:


> But just think how much $$ the first person will come into if they every figure out how to.


Samuel Colt already did.


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## JaneA (Nov 25, 2020)

PCR tests and rapid tests are equally effective, but still, after a positive rapid test result, it is worth taking an extensive PCR test!!!At our work, we did express tests every 2 weeks for all employees, one employee showed a positive result, and when the PCR test was passed, the result was negative. when two employees showed a positive result, we were immediately sent home to remote work, connected to www.worktime.com and other similar programs for remote monitoring of work. And while we are working at home, we are still tested every two weeks, and employees who have been ill are tested for antibodies to the virus.​:goodjob::goodjob:


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## markr6 (Nov 25, 2020)

Ahhh, about that nurse. Ok.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...urses-claim-patients-deny-COVID-real-die.html


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## bigburly912 (Nov 25, 2020)

I didn’t want to get into that too much. Like I said her Twitter over the last few years was interesting.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 25, 2020)

markr6 said:


> Ahhh, about that nurse. Ok.
> 
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...urses-claim-patients-deny-COVID-real-die.html



"...called a number of hospitals near Doering's hometown" Well, this neither validates or invalidates her story. It does raise a good point about lazy journalism though. I've seen many cases where news editors simply scrape the 'net for stories rather than spending the time to research and confirm them. I can't say whether her story is true, although honestly I'd prefer that it wasn't. It pains me to think that someone could be denying that they have Covid while taking their last breaths because of it.


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## markr6 (Nov 25, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> It pains me to think that someone could be denying that they have Covid while taking their last breaths because of it.



I'd bet some are actually hardcore deniers enough to believe it. The other half could be so jacked up on drugs, exhausted, tired of hospital food and isolation for play mind games to kick in. Just not fair to go out like that.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 25, 2020)

Still makes no sense to me why people would be denying they have COVID and screaming for “a miracle drug” (which is probably referencing a certain drug a certain man once said had promising results.) if they didn’t even believe they had COVID to begin with.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 25, 2020)

bigburly912 said:


> Still makes no sense to me why people would be denying they have COVID and screaming for “a miracle drug” (which is probably referencing a certain drug a certain man once said had promising results.) if they didn’t even believe they had COVID to begin with.


Don't underestimate the power of cult figures, which is frankly what the person you're referring to is. The neighbor of a friend of mine passed away, not from covid, but from drinking bleach and isopropyl alcohol. I'll give you three guesses where he got that idea from.


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## bigburly912 (Nov 25, 2020)

If they don’t believe they have COVID why would they want magic medicine to fight COVID? That’s the only answer I want.


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## nbp (Nov 25, 2020)

People die all the time of things they could change but don’t care enough to do anything about. Smoking, heavy drinking, drug abuse, obesity, etc. No one disputes these things are absolutely lethal and kill hundreds of thousands a year and cause health problems for millions more and yet tens of millions of people do them on the daily. Why would we expect people to go significantly out of their way to avoid something with a relatively low lethality compared to those things?

I’m Not supporting that attitude but sometimes I’m surprised how surprised you guys are at how people respond to this.


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## Shooter21 (Nov 25, 2020)

They don’t seem to realize how some of those actions kill others besides themselves


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## turbodog (Nov 25, 2020)

nbp said:


> ...
> I’m Not supporting that attitude but sometimes I’m surprised how surprised you guys are at how people respond to this.



Because it's still acute, omnipresent, and killing people.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 25, 2020)

turbodog said:


> Because it's still acute, omnipresent, and killing people.



Yes. My area has now "gone plaid" on the Covid map. Things are getting intense.


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## Empath (Nov 25, 2020)

"Corona Virus... *the second wave*"

Just a reminder that this thread deals with a particular theme.


****************************************

A whole bunch of posts, that followed this post have been removed.
The next step will be a bit more severe.

Take it to the Underground, or someone else's board.


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## bykfixer (Nov 26, 2020)




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## Poppy (Dec 2, 2020)

This morning I saw on the news that the "White House Corona Task Force" gave a dire warning to the states. They recommended that if you are over 65 or have significant health problems you should not enter an indoor public area if people are without a facial covering. Don't go food shopping indoors, instead have it delivered.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/politics/white-house-coronavirus-task-force-states-report/index.html

Additionally:
"If you are under 40, you need to assume you became infected during the Thanksgiving period if you gathered beyond your immediate household. Most likely, you will not have symptoms; however, you are dangerous to others and you must isolate away from anyone at increased risk for severe disease and get tested immediately. If you are over 65 or have significant medical conditions and you gathered outside of your immediate household, you are at a significant risk for serious COVID infection; if you develop any symptoms, you must be tested immediately as the majority of therapeutics work best early in infection," the reports say


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## turbodog (Dec 3, 2020)

We saw our highest daily numbers today, ever. And they are ~25% above the last peak (which was a week ago). Maybe some people had thanksgiving weekend before last as it's still a little early for numbers to pop from thanksgiving's official date.

Governor has been talking surge, but according to the numbers we are still in the beginning stages. Don't think we are nearly as far along that curve as he imagines.

Tomorrow will tell if today was a fluke. The lines at the er/icu do not give warm fuzzies.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Dec 4, 2020)

I believe more questions are better than fewer questions. 
I believe more science is better than less science. 
I believe more answers are better than no answers. 
I believe more discussion is better than less discussion.

Video removed due to politically controversial content beyond the scope of this board.


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## raggie33 (Dec 4, 2020)

do to health reason i had to hail a cab the other day im halfway home and notice the driver was maskless


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 4, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> do to health reason i had to hail a cab the other day im halfway home and notice the driver was maskless



If the windows were down you were probably ok.


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## turbodog (Dec 5, 2020)

Recent numbers were not a fluke. Today is even higher. Largest hospital in capital city is 30+ beds in deficit for ICU.

Hospital that I have inside knowledge of is trying to prepare. PPE is being stockpiled. Various freezers are installed and waiting for vaccines. Staffing shortages abound... so much so that people who have done firing offenses are now being given a pass.


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## bykfixer (Dec 5, 2020)

America relaxed and now the numbers are growing at a rate that should not surprise anyone. 

Early on the numbers were largely focused in the metropoli as we watched the daily numbers rise like crazy. But most of the land mass was largely doing ok. Restrictions across the fruited plain were in place as numbers in metropoli slowly became better. In my state for example we had three distinct areas where it was spreading faster than a Nebraska wild fire. Things settled down as a case here, a couple dozen there made their way across the entire state and no area had zero cases anymore. But…… in order to try to balance a financial meltdown while slowing the spread it appeared all summer to be working. 

So we went from 3 snow balls rolling down the mountain, steadily growing larger and more dangerous to a dozen or more. Now we have several "Nebraska wild fires". So does every state in the Union. And you cannot single out one group or another as the reason. You cannot really blame the government or those awful maskless people or this group or that. No the 300+ million Americans did what 300+ million people do in a free society while balancing financial concerns. A species that does a helluva good job at spreading disease is doing just that. 

A virus that was new to the world population spreading throughout the human race is nothing new. It's just new to those alive in 2020. Is it alarming? Certainly. Yet it should be no surprise to anybody that the way nearly everybody relaxed over the summer as the numbers slowly spread have now begun to rise at an alarming rate. Before you watched New York and New Jersey numbers rise faster than 2 shakes of a lambs tail. But now we have 50 New Yorks so of course records are being smashed.

Now regarding the vaccine. At one point pfeizer said they'd have 20 million ready on day 1 of approval. Recently the number being mentioned is 50 million. Ah, but yesterday it was said "hackers" are interupting logistics so expect 25 million instead. That is actually 5 million more than was originally stated so instead of "oh crap, what happened?" it is seemingly still on the originally stated path. It seems front line workers will be first in line. Yay! Then the folks most vulnerable. Looking at the early history of this thing that could mean those in convelescent homes. But where does it go from there? Should it go to areas with the most numbers? Or should it go where the potential spread would be? ie schools, and other places where crowds are the norm. Say for example you have 3000 folks slated to go on a cruise. Will inoculation be required before embarking? How about airlines? Sports stadiums? 

2021 is stacking up to be 2020 all over again.


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## Poppy (Dec 5, 2020)

Wow it is really hitting home.

We haven't seen the Thanks giving rush yet. Hopefully our governor is right, in that he reported yesterday that there is anecdotal evidence that people in NJ, for the most part, had small family gatherings, and stayed within their household. This week, and next will show if that anecdotal evidence was right.

The good news, if there is any, is that although our positive test number is much higher, now than in April-May (back then tests were somewhat scarce, so if there was more testing there would have been more positive numbers back then) - -- our current hospitalizations are at about 3,500. We once hit a high of about 8,500 (April-May). It's predicted that we will hit 5,000 by the end of the year.

The bad news is: staffing shortages. April, May, June... thousands of nurses came from other states to help out. Later when our numbers were low, we sent thousands of ours to help other states. NOW... ALL states are short on staff, so there is no lending of staff to help each other out.


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## Poppy (Dec 5, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> <SNIP>
> 
> Now regarding the vaccine. <SNIP>
> 
> It seems front line workers will be first in line. Yay! Then the folks most vulnerable. Looking at the early history of this thing that could mean those in convelescent homes. But where does it go from there? Should it go to areas with the most numbers? Or should it go where the potential spread would be? ie schools, and other places where crowds are the norm. Say for example you have 3000 folks slated to go on a cruise. Will inoculation be required before embarking? How about airlines? Sports stadiums?



Mr fixer,
Here is a power point presentation of the science behind who gets vaccinated first.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/COVID-02-Dooling.pdf

Taken from page 16 of the CDC's guidebook
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-ma...D-19-Vaccination-Program-Interim_Playbook.pdf

 Phase 1-A: Paid and unpaid persons serving in healthcare settings who have the potential for direct orindirect exposure to patients or infectious materials Phase 1-B: People who play a key role in keeping essential functions of society running and cannotsocially distance in the workplace (e.g., emergency and law enforcement personnel not included inPhase 1-A, food packaging and distribution workers, teachers/school staff, childcare providers), adultswith high-risk medical conditions who possess risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness, and people 65years of age or older (including those living in LTCFs)

-----------------------------------------------------------

While trying to keep the economy running, and small "mom and pop" shops and restaurants in business, I'd suggest:

Just as we went into high production of ventilators, we should go into high production of heat exchanging high volume room ventilators/fans. Indoor capacity can be increased if there is sufficient ventilation/fresh air exchange, and/or air scrubbing. Like all products they are a matter of supply and demand and currently the supply is low, and therefore they are expensive. Increase the supply, they will drop in price, and if the government permits a higher capacity indoors by taking into account the air exchange rate of each individual establishment, then there will be a higher demand, especially if the price comes down to where it is economically feasible.

Those businesses that discovered that they CAN allow their employees to work from home, should continue to allow them to do so. Those businesses that can only function by being in live contact with other people should be among the earlier people who get inoculated (this might include the small bodega owners, beauty shops, ice cream shops). When they are mandated to shut down, they should be compensated.

OK... I've rambled enough


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## LeanBurn (Dec 5, 2020)

Locally there was a lady who was over 102 years old who got covid. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/local/calgary/2020/7/9/1_5017545.html

She fully recovered, so that gives hope.


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## raggie33 (Dec 5, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> If the windows were down you were probably ok.



i sure hope so


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 5, 2020)

Gloria Estefan revealed that she got Covid from a maskless fan.


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## bigburly912 (Dec 5, 2020)

No. She is guessing that she got COVID from a maskless fan because it made a good story. She has no idea where she caught it. If she was so worried about it why was she out at a restaurant eating without a mask on?


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## raggie33 (Dec 5, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Gloria Estefan revealed that she got Covid from a maskless fan.



she was huge in miami back when i still lived there


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## jtr1962 (Dec 5, 2020)

Poppy said:


> While trying to keep the economy running, and small "mom and pop" shops and restaurants in business, I'd suggest:
> 
> Just as we went into high production of ventilators, we should go into high production of heat exchanging high volume room ventilators/fans. Indoor capacity can be increased if there is sufficient ventilation/fresh air exchange, and/or air scrubbing. Like all products they are a matter of supply and demand and currently the supply is low, and therefore they are expensive. Increase the supply, they will drop in price, and if the government permits a higher capacity indoors by taking into account the air exchange rate of each individual establishment, then there will be a higher demand, especially if the price comes down to where it is economically feasible.


Long term that's a great idea even once the pandemic is over. That and installing UV-C lights which kill pathogens but don't harm humans. Every year millions of people get the flu. The cumulative lost work and school hours is a big hit on the economy. It's pennies on the dollar to install measures which keep people from getting sick in the first place.



> Those businesses that discovered that they CAN allow their employees to work from home, should continue to allow them to do so. Those businesses that can only function by being in live contact with other people should be among the earlier people who get inoculated (this might include the small bodega owners, beauty shops, ice cream shops). When they are mandated to shut down, they should be compensated.


As the numbers tick up, I doubt enough people will patronize these businesses for them to remain solvent, so your last sentence is more relevant. Shut them down, but compensate them so the employees are still paid and the owner can meet his bills until enough people are vaccinated to bring the numbers of cases way down.

We're going to go through a very rough winter but the light is at the end of the tunnel. Maybe 6 or 7 more months of extreme measures, followed by a gradual return to normalcy over the next 6 months.


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## raggie33 (Dec 5, 2020)

be careful of crappy mask for the second time my mask straps riped off while wearing mask


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## turbodog (Dec 5, 2020)

A _very_ accurate read of what life is like in a hospital lab right now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/03/health/coronavirus-testing-labs-workers.html

I don't think it's behind a paywall.


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## raggie33 (Dec 5, 2020)

im never leaving my home again. there is nothing good out there anyways. just a bunch of non mask people. saw one guy and its wife today just walking around walmart no mask.


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## Lynx_Arc (Dec 5, 2020)

If they were properly distancing themselves from you then you are probably safer from them than if they were masked and crowding you only a few feet away.


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## Poppy (Dec 5, 2020)

turbodog said:


> A _very_ accurate read of what life is like in a hospital lab right now.
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/03/health/coronavirus-testing-labs-workers.html
> 
> I don't think it's behind a paywall.


turbodog,
thank you for once again bringing informative posts to the conversation.


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## idleprocess (Dec 5, 2020)

Poppy said:


> Those businesses that discovered that they CAN allow their employees to work from home, should continue to allow them to do so. Those businesses that can only function by being in live contact with other people should be among the earlier people who get inoculated (this might include the small bodega owners, beauty shops, ice cream shops). When they are mandated to shut down, they should be compensated.



Slightly tangential - given that this is the first big mandatory (WFH) Work From Home experience for a number of employers and employees and it doesn't seem to have caused the productivity and accountability disaster that WFH opponents would have us believe, I expect that a good slice of the workforce _will simply not return to the office_ once COVID-19 is behind us. Commercial office space is _expensive_; the infrastructure for remote work is relatively cheap and WFH does away with the timesink of commuting.

Given that I've been WFH for 9 months now, I should be one of the last groups to get vaccinated for COVID-19; as someone that manages millions of remote elements that I have never directly touched using an enterprise application 1000 miles away from me, I can work from home indefinitely. I suspect that healthcare workers and first responders will indeed get the first round of vaccines, however I'm afraid that _political economy_ will overpower the well-considered advice of relevant professionals once the next round is distributed and our newly-minted _essential workers_ will get shortchanged and those with greater pull will be prioritized.


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## turbodog (Dec 5, 2020)

I think that WFH has gained more acceptance from employers as a valid method/location of working. But if I can speak from experience... I've worked from home for 22 years. The first though about it is "yeah I've got to get up on time like normal and actually work, be a self starter and all." But after that... many simply are not psychologically cut out for that much time alone. In the short term people can make do and even think it's for them... something they like. I always say "come back and talk to me in a year or two". Have yet to get that followup call.

But back to c-19 specific stuff... brother in law's mom has it. Went on vent ~2 weeks ago. Was doing better... they were weaning her off it, playing with O2 settings, playing with vent pressure adjustments, etc. Yesterday they went back to 100% O2, 2 units blood, and lung x-ray is looking bad. 60 years old.


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## Poppy (Dec 5, 2020)

Hey bro, I am sorry, it doesn't sound good.
One thing for sure. Modern medicine can help one go gracefully/peacefully.
I've been told that morphine gives one a euphoric feeling.

Your family knows that. I hope that you and everyone does well.
Sorry that this has hit so close to home.
Poppy


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## jtr1962 (Dec 5, 2020)

turbodog said:


> I think that WFH has gained more acceptance from employers as a valid method/location of working. But if I can speak from experience... I've worked from home for 22 years. The first though about it is "yeah I've got to get up on time like normal and actually work, be a self starter and all." But after that... many simply are not psychologically cut out for that much time alone. In the short term people can make do and even think it's for them... something they like. I always say "come back and talk to me in a year or two". Have yet to get that followup call.


I worked from home from late 1990 until when I semi-retired about three years ago. I really only had about 3 years of working in a regular setting, and I hated it. Hated the commuting, hated the hours (I'm a night person so starting at 8AM doesn't suit me one bit), hated only having two days a week off, if that. Working from home for me was like a blind person suddenly seeing. For starters, I was no longer tired all the time. Pretty much since I started grade school, that was the story of my life because I was being forced to keep hours which didn't match what my body wanted. I don't care how much sleep you get, if you're not a morning person you never really adapt to early hours. You may tolerate it, but in the long run it grinds you down.

I also realized how much time at work is just wasted. Besides the 1.5 to 2 hours each day commuting, probably 2 hours out of 8 is wasted with nonsense like gossip, phone calls from customers which aren't remotely necessary from any business standpoint (i.e. stuff like telling me what's wrong with something they're sending in to repair when 99% of the time their diagnosis is wrong and I can figure it out myself), snack breaks which caused me to gain weight, and so forth. So basically if I did the same amount of work at home, what used to take up 50+ hours of my time, and 5 days of the week, instead took maybe 25 to 30 hours, and usually 2 or 3 days. I liked to just get the work out of the way by working as much as possible in a few days so I had more days off. That's not even getting into being able to rise at noon or later.

Didn't miss the social interaction much, either. I'm an introvert to start with. I actually find daily social interaction with most people stressful. The only exception was my group of friends from high school.

My sister has been working from home since this started. They're selling the building the company owns, and will rent out office space as needed nearby. This is telling me that remote work will be permanent for most of the employees in my sister's company. She's had nothing but great things to say about it. The only complaint is she can't really do anything after work but that's on account of many things being closed due to the pandemic.

Hope your brother-in-law's mom makes it.


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## bykfixer (Dec 6, 2020)

Ordinarily I don't give a crap if people wear a mask or not. I really don't. But there is this one couple I keep seeing in the grocery store who don't have one, and again I don't care about that. But the fellow is a gray haired fellow with a look on his face like something smells while he walks around with his Fubu Airborn (ie fake) Air Force jacket and I've seen raisins with smoother complexions than the lady, and they always block the aisle. Not for 2 or 3 seconds, but like for a minute, two, three while they touch all kinds of products then decide "nah I want the other kind". They remind me of the sort of person who spit their chewing gum out on a hot summer day in a high traffic walking area. 
We call them "those Corona Balona people". 

Next week I may carry some bird seed with me and if I see them I'll drop some on the floor as they approach with their cart. You know how when your cart finds that little something on the floor and causes a wheel to slide instead of roll? 
Nah, I'm not the revenge type but that couple just appear to be the kind of folks who just don't give a hoot about their fellow man (or woman). I figure she can't get covid-19 because it requires more hemoglobin and less alcohol and if he gets it he'll want to sue the place he thinks he got it from.


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## raggie33 (Dec 6, 2020)

im the dumbest guy on cpf by far. but i even wear a mask


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 6, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> ...there is this one couple I keep seeing in the grocery store who don't have one, and again I don't care about that. But the fellow is a gray haired fellow with a look on his face like something smells while he walks around with his Fubu Airborn (ie fake) Air Force jacket and I've seen raisins with smoother complexions than the lady, and they always block the aisle. Not for 2 or 3 seconds, but like for a minute, two, three while they touch all kinds of products then decide "nah I want the other kind". They remind me of the sort of person who spit their chewing gum out on a hot summer day in a high traffic walking area.
> 
> We call them "those Corona Balona people". .



Darwin to aisle 4 please...


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## Poppy (Dec 6, 2020)

Rudy Giuliani is one of those "Corona Balona" people.

trump-announces-rudy-giuliani-has-covid


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## jtr1962 (Dec 6, 2020)

Proof positive that science is true whether you believe in it or not.

As for people not wearing masks in stores, I would personally bring that to the attention of the manager. I would tell the manager if he/she doesn't want to enforce mask rules, which incidentally also protect them and their employees, I'll be taking my business elsewhere and won't be back after the pandemic is over. If everyone did this one simple thing in the US alone hundreds of thousands of lives would have been saved. Mask wearing is why the Asian countries are handling this so much better (and why they can leave more things open).


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 6, 2020)

I would report it to the county health department or your state's Covid hotline. I think this is more likely to get their attention.


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## Lynx_Arc (Dec 6, 2020)

It doesn't surprise me that people get this virus at all. Masks and distancing are no guaranteed defense against it and "having" Covid 19 doesn't mean you are going to get sick or infect others either it just means you tested positive for it. If they used these same metrics for normal flues and colds then most people would "have them" and not just the ones getting sick from it. They still haven't told us how many people who test positive can actually infect others, I think they don't really know it could be a lower number than people realize.


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## turbodog (Dec 6, 2020)

You may be right, wrong, or partially correct about one or more of those items. But it does not change the fact that hospitals are struggling to keep up. 

I'm sure those figures will eventually come out after enough data comes in and we have time/resources to analyze it all. When we get close to herd immunity either through rampant infection or vaccines you will see numbers free fall across the board with seemingly no cause. We are not there yet clearly.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 6, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> It doesn't surprise me that people get this virus at all. Masks and distancing are no guaranteed defense against it and "having" Covid 19 doesn't mean you are going to get sick or infect others either it just means you tested positive for it. If they used these same metrics for normal flues and colds then most people would "have them" and not just the ones getting sick from it. They still haven't told us how many people who test positive can actually infect others, I think they don't really know it could be a lower number than people realize.


Nothing is guaranteed but it's all about odds. Masks and distancing increase the odds in your favor. Greatly. So does only going out when it's 100% necessary. I go out once every two weeks to buy food. That's it. I've been stocking up on most items. If the numbers get much higher in NYC, I won't even feel safe doing that, so I'll just order the few things I might need online. Or have my brother get them for me (i.e. he works at a hospital so he has to go out regardless). Speaking of my brother, he tested negative for antibodies despite being around sick people all day. Why? He follows the protocols. Wears a mask, doesn't touch his face until he can wash his hands, etc. If the protocols work in a place which is crawling with the virus, they will be even more effective in other settings.


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 6, 2020)

jtr1962 said:


> Speaking of my brother, he tested negative for antibodies despite being around sick people all day. Why? He follows the protocols. Wears a mask, doesn't touch his face until he can wash his hands, etc. If the protocols work in a place which is crawling with the virus, they will be even more effective in other settings.



This is an excellent point JTR. Masksk and hand washing work. They're not 100% perfect however they are so much better than ignoring the protocols.


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## Poppy (Dec 6, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> It doesn't surprise me that people get this virus at all. Masks and distancing are no guaranteed defense against it


There are few guarantees in life, except that one day you will die.

Science has proven that this is an airborne transmissible disease and that masks reduce the rate of spreading the particulate matter that transports the disease.

Science has also shown that the reduction of "infected/stale" air by replacing it with fresh, clean air, helps to reduce the transmission rate from those infected to non-infected. Therefore hospital protocols for airborne diseases include keeping patients with such infections in negative air pressure rooms (essentially they have exhaust fans in the rooms).

In NYC testing has determined that hospital personal had a lower incidence of corona virus antibodies than the general population. The fact that they were trained, in the proper use of PPE, and followed masking and hand washing protocols, in part explained the disparity.

IMO anyone who adheres to the position that the use of masks and distancing, is of no value, is simply ignorant of the science.



> and "having" Covid 19 doesn't mean you are going to get sick or infect others either it just means you tested positive for it.



By THIS definition of "Having Covid" one who has tested positive: is more likely to get sick, and more likely to pass the infection on to others, than those who do not have Covid, IE, those who have not tested positive.




> If they used these same metrics for normal flues and colds then most people would "have them" and not just the ones getting sick from it. They still haven't told us how many people who test positive can actually infect others, I think they don't really know it could be a lower number than people realize.



Certainly there are precautions that an infected person can take to reduce the likelihood of transmitting the disease to others, whether it be the common cold, flu or corona virus.

Obviously there are steps/actions or inactions that one can take to help protect oneself from contacting, or contracting the infecting agent. 

Again, there are no guarantees. There are things that will increase or decrease the odds.


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## Poppy (Dec 6, 2020)

Thanksgiving day we ignored the governor's suggestion and didn't stay to within our own family household bubble. We allowed my son and his girlfriend to join us. 

Two days later they became symptomatic and tested positive.

Fortunately we followed the protocols laid out in pages one and two of this thread, and opened windows, and had a 20 inch box fan set on exhaust in the room we pretty much stayed in. Ten days later my daughter and I have been tested twice, and we are covid negative, so are both of my grandkids.

Come Christmas, it will be just the four of us... no exceptions.

I look forward to summer when we can get together on the lake with our kayaks.


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## idleprocess (Dec 7, 2020)

A concept I recently came across was that of a _*risk budget*_. The TL;DR is that you can assess the relative risk of a given activity and deduct it from a set value for a given time - typically weekly. 

MicroCOVID attempts to quantify this risk using updated data based on locale. The base unit of risk - the bespoke _microcovid_ - is a 1-in-1,000,000 chance of contracting the disease and the default budget is 200: a 1-in-5,000 chance per week which is purportedly a 1% _annual_ probability. The parameters for an activity are reasonably configurable as well - distancing, crowd density, PPE, duration, airflow, conversational volume. It's an interesting tool for gaming scenarios.


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## turbodog (Dec 7, 2020)

idleprocess said:


> A concept I recently came across was that of a _*risk budget*_. The TL;DR is that you can assess the relative risk of a given activity and deduct it from a set value for a given time - typically weekly.
> 
> MicroCOVID attempts to quantify this risk using updated data based on locale. The base unit of risk - the bespoke _microcovid_ - is a 1-in-1,000,000 chance of contracting the disease and the default budget is 200: a 1-in-5,000 chance per week which is purportedly a 1% _annual_ probability. The parameters for an activity are reasonably configurable as well - distancing, crowd density, PPE, duration, airflow, conversational volume. It's an interesting tool for gaming scenarios.



So my typical day comes in at 70x weekly risk budget. Nice...

I often wonder how I have avoided it for this long given my job.


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## raggie33 (Dec 7, 2020)

my freind just told.me she feels awful. but tested negative. we need prayers since she is a active school teacher


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 7, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> my freind just told.me she feels awful. but tested negative. we need prayers since she is a active school teacher



She might have the seasonal flu. Many of the symptoms are very similar.


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## raggie33 (Dec 7, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> She might have the seasonal flu. Many of the symptoms are very similar.


i sure hope so. she is realy nice.


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## Lynx_Arc (Dec 7, 2020)

Poppy said:


> There are few guarantees in life, except that one day you will die.


Odds are you won't die from Covid 19


> Science has proven that this is an airborne transmissible disease and that masks reduce the rate of spreading the particulate matter that transports the disease.


Reduce how much? Does it reduce it enough to not distance properly like most folks wearing masks I see are doing? 
Trading masking for distancing is what I see happening and I think it is a poor trade.


> Science has also shown that the reduction of "infected/stale" air by replacing it with fresh, clean air, helps to reduce the transmission rate from those infected to non-infected. Therefore hospital protocols for airborne diseases include keeping patients with such infections in negative air pressure rooms (essentially they have exhaust fans in the rooms).
> 
> In NYC testing has determined that hospital personal had a lower incidence of corona virus antibodies than the general population. The fact that they were trained, in the proper use of PPE, and followed masking and hand washing protocols, in part explained the disparity.
> 
> IMO anyone who adheres to the position that the use of masks and distancing, is of no value, is simply ignorant of the science.


I don't buy this myself if they have such a lower incidence of infection then why are they the ones who get the vaccine FIRST? 
Apparently there must be some hogwash here.


> By THIS definition of "Having Covid" one who has tested positive: is more likely to get sick, and more likely to pass the infection on to others, than those who do not have Covid, IE, those who have not tested positive.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Again.... hospitals have the best masks.... most of the public has the worst...... hospitals have the best air handling equipment... most of the public doesn't.... hospital workers supposedly are at lower risk...... why do they need the vaccine first?


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## Lynx_Arc (Dec 7, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> my freind just told.me she feels awful. but tested negative. we need prayers since she is a active school teacher


Some folks have gotten false reports from some tests and later tested the opposite way on other more accurate tests. Hopefully she just has a "normal" bug as it is around that time of year for it to happen.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 7, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> I don't buy this myself if they have such a lower incidence of infection then why are they the ones who get the vaccine FIRST?


Because at this point they're probably the least expendable workers going, and because it isn't a given that they will universally have a lower rate of infection. PPE shortages and/or being forced to work in makeshift hospitals without proper ventilation, like converted stadiums, all greatly increase their risk of infection. Remember even as things stand health care workers are being stressed to be breaking point. If some can't work due to infection, those remaining can't handle the load. Also remember if covid patients who need hospitalization don't get treatment, due to either a shortage of beds or personnel, the mortality rate increases by a factor of 5 to 10. We saw that in NYC in March/April when we were basically doing triage. 25% of those coming to the hospital died, some right in waiting rooms. Now that treatments have greatly improved, it's even more important to take care of health care workers via a vaccine so those who get sick can be properly treated.

After health care workers the next priority is more vulnerable populations in communal settings like nursing homes. Here you have a population with a higher risk of catching the disease in the first place, and a higher risk of dying if they do catch at. After this you'll probably start vaccinating other essential workers. People like me who are essentially sheltering in place can be close to last on the totem pole, although I might be a slightly higher priority because I'm living with my nearly 82 year old mother.


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## raggie33 (Dec 7, 2020)

im trully sorry if i offended anyone .as i age i lose the mouth to brain filter. but that is no excuse


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## nbp (Dec 7, 2020)

Also, a lot of people can make choices that keep them out of the path of the virus if they want to. Health care workers don’t have that luxury. Thus the reason it makes sense to give them first dibs on a vaccine.


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## Poppy (Dec 7, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> Odds are you won't die from Covid 19


You re right. Most infected people will not die from covid.
OTOH, if you are fat, old, and diabetic and you get covid, you are more likely to die. Yet young people DO die from covid, even without predisposing co-morbidities. They are the outliers though.



> Reduce how much? Does it reduce it enough to not distance properly like most folks wearing masks I see are doing?
> Trading masking for distancing is what I see happening and I think it is a poor trade.



I agree, IMO distancing in the fresh air is more important than masking. IMO without masks, and out in the fresh air, I want a minimum of 10 feet distance.
The experts recommend 6 feet with masks on, when in doors. Personally I do not think they have done enough education regarding the benefits of proper ventilation indoors as well as masking and distance.

Often I have to refrain from making the comment that people are stupid! If the experts say wear a mask and keep six feet apart, they should wear a mask and stay six feet apart! 
If you tell people that they don't have to wear a mask, but they have to stay 10-12 feet apart outdoors, and 15-20 feet apart indoors, will they do it?
You KNOW that they won't.




> I don't buy this myself if they have such a lower incidence of infection then why are they the ones who get the vaccine FIRST?
> Apparently there must be some hogwash here.
> 
> 
> Again.... hospitals have the best masks.... most of the public has the worst...... hospitals have the best air handling equipment... most of the public doesn't.... hospital workers supposedly are at lower risk...... why do they need the vaccine first?



IMO these statements and questions are made simply to promote argument.
Trolling...


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## turbodog (Dec 8, 2020)

I see what you are saying about hospital workers having the 'best' equipment. But you are not thinking it through thoroughly.

Hospital workers around here have the same surgical mask that the general public has. But even if they have full face n100 respirators... they don't live at the hospital. They have families that can infect them. They go to the grocery store/etc. Also, not all healthcare workers (in fact the bulk of them) work at the hospital. Tons of them are at local clinics, standalone labs, specialty clinics, etc.

And finally... healthcare workers have seen their own kind struggling to stay infection-free, motivated, sane, etc while the vast majority of the general public seems to not give a crap. And others think they're getting the vaccine first? :hahaha:


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## turbodog (Dec 8, 2020)

Also talking about vaccines. Hospital that I mentioned a while back... nothing ever turned up. However, I saw the email this evening (they come twice a day) from the CEO saying that delivery is Dec 18th, assuming FDA approval on 11th.


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## bigburly912 (Dec 8, 2020)

Medical system my wife works for sent out a mass email asking the providers (doctors, NP, PA) what other experience they had and where they would be willing to transfer due to lack of staffing. This is the same medical system that laid people off early on due to loss of money because of the pandemic since elective surgeries were stopped and regular doctor visits had slowed down. Good decision making there. They just purchased 3 mobile morgues for some of the hospitals due to the infection rate being so high right now. 

Sadly almost all of the cases in my little area are from the nursing homes. If you all remember me posting months ago when my neighboring county got its first reported case well, come to find out that lady did travel care to all the nursing homes in this area. [emoji17] months later it’s taken it’s toll.


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## KITROBASKIN (Dec 8, 2020)

Thinking that masking, distancing when possible, high rate air refresh, or incantations can totally prevent spread of this obviously highly contagious disease is a mistake from these eyes. After health care workers get the vaccine, public safety workers should be next you ask me. If medical workers are sick or dead, health care suffers. Should folks get disregulated significantly, we will need law enforcement to help maintain civility. Hospitals in Albuquerque allow infected asymptomatic health workers to treat active COVID patients (reported on broadcast TV). Things are tight here with medical care, letting the public know that doctors may soon have to 'ration' care for lack of human resources.


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## turbodog (Dec 11, 2020)

Vaccines arrived today. Not very many, slightly less than enough to treat 1k people, which is 2 doses per person. These are in a 5 dose vial. And the attorneys do NOT have the waiver written yet so even if/when FDA final approval comes through they can't be given out yet.


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## raggie33 (Dec 11, 2020)

im.old im waiting to everyone else gets there vacine before i get mine ill be 50 soon . so i had a long life


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## Poppy (Dec 11, 2020)

Raggie,
LOL you don't have to worry about being chivalrous, you are still young enough that you'll be at the end of the line when it comes to having access to a vaccine.

The CDC set 65 years old as the defining age for earlier qualification, and they won't likely get it until the middle of February, or early March.


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## raggie33 (Dec 11, 2020)

Poppy said:


> Raggie,
> LOL you don't have to worry about being chivalrous, you are still young enough that you'll be at the end of the line when it comes to having access to a vaccine.
> 
> The CDC set 65 years old as the defining age for earlier qualification, and they won't likely get it until the middle of February, or early March.



dang thats a long time. ps the horror films that scare me the most are outbreaks if disease


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## Poppy (Dec 11, 2020)

In NJ, we'll get 76,000 doses (vaccination for 38,000 people) in the initial distribution of the vaccine.




> The NJ Department of Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli said six “prepositioned hospitals” — AtlantiCare Regional Medical Center in Atlantic City, Cooper University Hospital in Camden, Hackensack University Medical Center, Morristown Medical Center, University Hospital in Newark, and Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital in New Brunswick — will receive the first 76,050 doses.
> 
> 
> The first people to receive the vaccinations will be health care workers who have direct or indirect exposure to the virus, she said.



NJ has 650,000 people who are eligible for the earliest doses.
That means that only 5.8 % of those people will get vaccinated initially.

Assuming that the moderna vaccine also gets approved, that will bring more vaccine doses to the table. I have not seen projections of an initial output, nor their predicted rate of production. Nor how that will affect the timeline for everyone to receive a vaccine.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 11, 2020)

Poppy said:


> Raggie,
> LOL you don't have to worry about being chivalrous, you are still young enough that you'll be at the end of the line when it comes to having access to a vaccine.
> 
> The CDC set 65 years old as the defining age for earlier qualification, and they won't likely get it until the middle of February, or early March.


I'm wondering if being younger than that, but living with someone older, might move you further up in the line. I'm 58 but my mom is nearly 82. I'll be happy though if at least she can get vaccinated within a month or two.

I may have had it back in March but no way to know without an antibody test. The virus was spreading like wildfire in NYC back then, but nobody was wearing masks. I felt nauseous, and ran a 100 degree fever for a few days about 5 days after I went to the store. It passed after that. Could have been something else of course.


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## Tejasandre (Dec 11, 2020)

I thought I had it early on too, but no antibodies when I tested in September


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## Poppy (Dec 11, 2020)

jtr1962,
Antibody testing is available.
If you have insurance, it may not cost you anything.
I have Medicare with a Horizon Blue Cross wraparound. I usually have a $20 co-pay, but for anything covid related Horizon will drop the co-pay.

My daughter ran a low grade fever for three months. The experts expected covid, because all the other tests were fine. Three types of covid tests all came back negative too. 2x nasal, 2x spit, 1x antibody. This was March through June, when testing was a little sparse. Eventually I got antibody tested, thinking that living with her I was probably exposed, and if I had antibodies that might confirm her as being in the least exposed. My test was negative.

Regarding getting bounced up in line a little bit because of living with your quite senior mom, you might email your Governor with that question. If he hadn't considered that scenario, if you write him, maybe he will.

Among the first groups to be vaccinated are caregivers in long term facilities.


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## Poppy (Dec 11, 2020)

turbodog said:


> Vaccines arrived today. Not very many, slightly less than enough to treat 1k people, which is 2 doses per person. These are in a 5 dose vial. And the attorneys do NOT have the waiver written yet so even if/when FDA final approval comes through they can't be given out yet.


Oh man, I feel your frustration.
Once when I was going through litigation, I gave it to an attorney friend of mine and said... stall this. "If lawyers can do anything, they can delay stuff." We both laughed, and both knew that I spoke the truth.

I hope that your initial allotment was not for the whole state, but just one hospital.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 11, 2020)

Poppy said:


> jtr1962,
> Antibody testing is available.
> If you have insurance, it may not cost you anything.
> I have Medicare with a Horizon Blue Cross wraparound. I usually have a $20 co-pay, but for anything covid related Horizon will drop the co-pay.
> ...


Unfortunately I don't have insurance but maybe one of the free covid testing centers in the city is offering antibody testing. I'll have to check. It's not really terribly important right now, more just a matter of morbid curiosity to see if I did in fact have it.

That's a good idea to contact Cuomo. He may not have even thought of situations where younger people are caretakers for elderly parents and should be moved up a bit in terms of priority.

That story about your daughter is really, really interesting. You said this was from March through June. It may not have been covid but this sounds an awful lot like what happened to me last fall. In the early fall, October I think, I came down with something awful. First it started out as nausea and black, tarry stools. Then the fever started, which was in the range of 100 to 102 for at least a few weeks. At its worst I couldn't even stand up for more than 30 seconds. It took me two hours to get my mom out of bed, into the bathroom, and give her breakfast. I had to lie down after every little exertion. At the low point I was in bed around 6AM, felt like I had to vomit, went to the bathroom, spit up some blood but no vomit. I leaned over the tub to see if more came out. Not sure exactly what happened after but my head was on the tub and there was quite a bit of blood. I thought at first it came up through my mouth and nose but it was actually from hitting my head on the tub. Must have passed out.

The recovery took a really long time, like until late December before I felt completely normal. Even once I felt well enough to go out again, I had to rest and lean against stuff every 50 or 100 feet. There were leg cramps also. Gradually all these things subsided but it was just awful. The symptoms are similar to what I'm reading that covid long-termers are going through. Could we have had covid in the US even back in October? If not, what the heck was it? Usually with things like the flu, it knocks me out, but within a week I'm almost normal again. Did your daughter have any of the symptoms I did, or just a low-grade fever? Maybe she got whatever I did, but in her case it wasn't as severe but still as long-lasting.


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## Poppy (Dec 11, 2020)

jtr1962,
Yours sounds more like upper GI issue.

https://www.webmd.com/digestive-disorders/h-pylori-helicobacter-pylori#1
Ulcers are often caused by a bacterial infection h-pylori

Dark tarry stools... upper GI bleeding.
https://medlineplus.gov/ency/articl... or tarry stools may,way through the GI tract.


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 11, 2020)

Back in the spring I was near a co-worker who had Covid for a short period of time. I never felt sick but I decided to get an antibody test just for my own peace of mind. I paid around $140 out of pocket for it, with the results coming back in 3-4 days. I tested negative for antibodies.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 12, 2020)

Poppy said:


> jtr1962,
> Yours sounds more like upper GI issue.
> 
> https://www.webmd.com/digestive-disorders/h-pylori-helicobacter-pylori#1
> ...



I neglected to mention that I had taken sodium naproxen which my brother got me for some very bad pain in my hip and knee. Black, tarry stools are one of the known side effects. However, everything that followed seemed more like a virus of some sort than a bad reaction to sodium naproxen. At the time I was even thinking intestinal virus of some sort. I know I have a bad reaction to almost every drug, which is why I avoid them if I can. I was never on sodium naproxen at all until then. Needless to say I'll never try it again.


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## scout24 (Dec 12, 2020)

JTR- Naproxen Sodium (Celebrex or Aleve) is the only medicine that takes away my lower back pain as an anti-inflammatory. I'm sorry it doesn't work for you... We just went back to lockdown here in Pa. due to a rise in cases. No more indoor dining, gyms and salons etc closed, and stores at 50% capacity. This through Jan 4th. I hope our small businesses can hang on, but I fear the worst after the last 9 months.


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## bykfixer (Dec 12, 2020)

My state goes into a modified system starting Monday. Masks requirement now includes sports participants. I can kinda see that. You get a few atheletes on a basketball court all breathing on each other it kinda makes sense. The midnight curfew thing has me scratching my head though. Unless going to or from work midnight to 5a you are required to stay home. That seems to mean that folks who jog at 4:00am before the world around them wakes up are in violation of a curfew. The folks who set out on a fishing trip or game hunters too. Meanwhile the non-law abiding citizen probably won't change that because the elected offficial says so. 

There's no easy way to control a free society without pissing somebody off. So elected officials make decisions that many think are stupid. Some are stupid. Some are decisions that if better explained would cause some of those pissed off to say "hmmm, that makes sense"… but to just say "do it or you're being selfish" only adds fuel to the fire. I used to enjoy listening to "scarf lady" early in the pandemic. Her rational was educational as well as calming, at least to me. From a national perspective it made sense. Then states could interperate things as states do while incorparating simple logic like stay 6 feet apart, wash your hands, don't touch your face and don't breath on other people without a face covering. Some people do that, some people don't.


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## bigburly912 (Dec 12, 2020)

The curfew makes absolutely no sense to me. The virus isn’t more contagious from 12-5, there are less people out from 12-5. Anybody care to explain that for me? Seems more of a control measure than a stop the spread issue.


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## Katherine Alicia (Dec 12, 2020)

Wouldn`t enforcing that be a complete waste of needed resources?


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## turbodog (Dec 12, 2020)

bigburly912 said:


> The curfew makes absolutely no sense to me. The virus isn’t more contagious from 12-5, there are less people out from 12-5. Anybody care to explain that for me? Seems more of a control measure than a stop the spread issue.



It's a way to shut down bars early and also parties.

But there may be unrelated benefits... at this time all efforts are focused on preventing spread AND lessening stress on healthcare. So perhaps we are missing something subtle.


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## turbodog (Dec 12, 2020)

scout24 said:


> JTR- Naproxen Sodium (Celebrex or Aleve) is the only medicine that takes away my lower back pain as an anti-inflammatory. I'm sorry it doesn't work for you... We just went back to lockdown here in Pa. due to a rise in cases. No more indoor dining, gyms and salons etc closed, and stores at 50% capacity. This through Jan 4th. I hope our small businesses can hang on, but I fear the worst after the last 9 months.



Try mobic (brand name) or meloxicam (generic). Had some for a pulled tendon/ligament/muscle... like aleve x10. No apparent side effects for me either. Cheap also.


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## bigburly912 (Dec 12, 2020)

turbodog said:


> It's a way to shut down bars early and also parties.



Parties already go against restriction and enforcement on restaurants makes more sense than giving a citation to somebody walking the dog before work.


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## turbodog (Dec 12, 2020)

Dunno. If law enforcement is in as tight as a staffing crunch as healthcare, it may simply be a way to cut back on 3rd shift patrols. I know healthcare staffing is a ****show right now.


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## bigburly912 (Dec 12, 2020)

Oh it’s awful here. Ballad has really screwed up


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## Poppy (Dec 12, 2020)

bigburly912 said:


> The curfew makes absolutely no sense to me. The virus isn’t more contagious from 12-5, there are less people out from 12-5. Anybody care to explain that for me? Seems more of a control measure than a stop the spread issue.


I agree, that on the outset, it doesn't make sense. And it's not a vampire virus that is more dangerous at night. So it may well be a control issue. But not a flagrant violation of our constitutional rights type of "The Government wants to control you" issue, but rather we need to modify some people's behavior for the good of the general public.

I suspect that enforcement of the curfew will be selectively enforced. A person walking his dog before or after work, or a person traveling to or from work will be given a pass. BUT 6 drunks leaning on each other walking home will be handled differently.

Also a group of people out after midnight, if they are not coming home from work, WHAT are they doing out that late at night? Where are they coming from?

How would you enforce, no indoor partying inside a private residence? Police can't enter without a warrant.


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## turbodog (Dec 12, 2020)

Before we go too far down the rabbit hole of legalities... police can enter w/ probable cause, no warrant needed. I'm sure there are plenty of legal ways to enforce that if they desire.

Our state is officially out of ICU beds, statewide, and has been for 4 days now.


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 12, 2020)

Our county just went from the highest alert level to one level below it. Small victories.


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## raggie33 (Dec 12, 2020)

im still freaked my freinds school she teaches at dont require mask . i havent saw her in a few days but she is pretty sure she has it


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## LeanBurn (Dec 12, 2020)

Fortunately she has over 99% chance of recovery, if she exhibits any symptoms.


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## Empath (Dec 13, 2020)

It looks like Covid-19 has taken another legendary entertainer. Charlie Pride died from complications of Covid-19 yesterday. He just received a lifetime achievement award on the CMA award show a month ago on November 11.


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 13, 2020)

I'm not a C/W fan, but... damn. I'm sorry to hear this. :candle: The guy was a legend.


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## Dave_5280 (Dec 13, 2020)

Joined the J&J phase 3 vaccine trial last week. They gave me a shot of vaccine or placebo, app for phone to report in, and a supply of testing supplies if I get Covid symptoms. My next appointment is 28 days out so they can test for antibodies. If they get their vaccine approved they will give it to me, or a placebo if I already was given the vaccine, to continue the study. I was a little tired the day after the shot and at times got a few nerve pins feelings, but nothing bad. At the end they pay you some money for completing steps in their study, probably $500 to $1,500. The study could go as long as 2 years but I don’t think it will go that long. They were going to test 60,000 people but announced they were reducing it to 40,000 since there’s more chance of exposure with more virus in circulation.

So hopefully I have already been vaccinated, or will get it sooner than I would have if I got the placebo. Looking around online there are a bunch of vaccines moving through testing that will probably reach phase 3 testing soon.


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## turbodog (Dec 14, 2020)

Dave_5280 said:


> Joined the J&J phase 3 vaccine trial last week. They gave me a shot of vaccine or placebo, app for phone to report in, and a supply of testing supplies if I get Covid symptoms. My next appointment is 28 days out so they can test for antibodies. If they get their vaccine approved they will give it to me, or a placebo if I already was given the vaccine, to continue the study. I was a little tired the day after the shot and at times got a few nerve pins feelings, but nothing bad. At the end they pay you some money for completing steps in their study, probably $500 to $1,500. The study could go as long as 2 years but I don’t think it will go that long. They were going to test 60,000 people but announced they were reducing it to 40,000 since there’s more chance of exposure with more virus in circulation.
> 
> So hopefully I have already been vaccinated, or will get it sooner than I would have if I got the placebo. Looking around online there are a bunch of vaccines moving through testing that will probably reach phase 3 testing soon.



My deepest respect for your actions. Hope you got the vaccine!


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## bykfixer (Dec 14, 2020)

Very 😎 Dave.


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## Poppy (Dec 15, 2020)

Just to mark the date for posterity
Yesterday December 14, 2020 the first covid 19 vaccine was given in NY
Today December 15, 2020 the first Covid 19 vaccine was given in NJ.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 15, 2020)

This marks the day we started turning the corner on this awful disease. Fauci says if enough people get vaccinated we might reach herd immunity by late spring/early summer.


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## turbodog (Dec 15, 2020)

We've got 2 concurrent things moving us toward herd immunity: infections and vaccines. FYI, from what I read and understand the word is that vaccines elicit a stronger immune response than having recovered from _a_ virus. So plan on getting vaccinated regardless.


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## Poppy (Dec 16, 2020)

Yes turbodog, yesterday it was reported that Dr Fauci strongly recommends that the President and VP who were both infected; get injected, AND Pres-elect and VP-elect also get vaccinated.


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## bykfixer (Dec 16, 2020)

A good day for the world. It sounds like another one is soon to follow with a third one not too far off in the distance.


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## turbodog (Dec 16, 2020)

A close family member is getting theirs in the morning, and I have to admit my initial reaction was jealousy.


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 16, 2020)

The FDA has just approved the first DIY home Covid test that won't require a prescription. Looks like it will cost around $30 and will start showing up in stores in the first half of 2021. The readout mechanism appears to be similar to many home pregnancy tests as it uses an optical sensor to read a color change and convert that to a go/no-go reading on your smartphone, which is linked to the sensor via bluetooth.


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## markr6 (Dec 17, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> The FDA has just approved the first DIY home Covid test that won't require a prescription. Looks like it will cost around $30 and will start showing up in stores in the first half of 2021. The readout mechanism appears to be similar to many home pregnancy tests as it uses an optical sensor to read a color change and convert that to a go/no-go reading on your smartphone, which is linked to the sensor via bluetooth.




That's pretty cool. If covid was such a problem and the government cared, these would be free. But I understand, nothing is free and someone needs to be compensated. But still, if they're printing money and handing it out...maybe don't do that.


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## nbp (Dec 17, 2020)

That’s cool, but Could probably make those even cheaper if every single thing didn’t have to have BT and connect to a smartphone. How about just a simple color change or a plus/minus indicator and cut the price in half.


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## markr6 (Dec 17, 2020)

"Sorry, can't come in to work today because my test says positive"....or so I say


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## Hooked on Fenix (Dec 17, 2020)

nbp said:


> That’s cool, but Could probably make those even cheaper if every single thing didn’t have to have BT and connect to a smartphone. How about just a simple color change or a plus/minus indicator and cut the price in half.


Because then it couldn't send the results instantly to the authorities to narc on you and have you instantly quarantined and use your phone's tracking to see who you came into contact with to do the same to them. I'll pass.


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## Katherine Alicia (Dec 17, 2020)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Because then it couldn't send the results instantly to the authorities to narc on you and have you instantly quarantined and use your phone's tracking to see who you came into contact with to do the same to them. I'll pass.




and you get to Pay for the privilage! LOL


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## nbp (Dec 17, 2020)

markr6 said:


> "Sorry, can't come in to work today because my test says positive"....or so I say



Well that’s what we’re doing now when they send you your results aren’t we? Are there really that many people lying about their results and feigning C19 to skip work? Most people don’t want to be quarantined to their house for 10-14 days.


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## bigburly912 (Dec 17, 2020)

nbp said:


> Well that’s what we’re doing now when they send you your results aren’t we? Are there really that many people lying about their results and feigning C19 to skip work? Most people don’t want to be quarantined to their house for 10-14 days.



Yes. We’ve had people send in papers saying they got tested and they were just falsified documents. I’m sure it happens everywhere. Also have people saying they were in contact with people and they weren’t. At all.


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## nbp (Dec 17, 2020)

Interesting. Well, looks like you are gonna need to buy a bunch of these spy app virus tests for your dishonest employees then. 🤷🏻


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## bigburly912 (Dec 17, 2020)

Not my employees. And I don’t even want these things in a store near me haha


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## idleprocess (Dec 17, 2020)

If the app/device test were reusable several times that would be an interesting prospect for anyone that has to be tested regularly.

However the use of a smartphone app raises the usual concerns about privacy and security in today's _monetize all the things_ internet economy.


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## Monocrom (Dec 17, 2020)

According to NY1 news, the latest figures show rates of infection at the same levels they were in NYC back in April. Since restrictions have been greatly eased up though, we can expect the numbers to climb. So, just as high as April (Corona hit NYC in March) but folks acting as though time has lessened the impact of the virus. 

Hopefully the vaccine that is out, is effective. But whether or not it is, we'll only be sure after about 6 months. Thank you to everyone in my city who is willing to be a human guinea pig and gets the vaccine now. I genuinely mean that.


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## markr6 (Dec 18, 2020)

nbp said:


> Are there really that many people lying about their results and feigning C19 to skip work? Most people don’t want to be quarantined to their house for 10-14 days.



We may never know. Me? I'd be out in the woods for many of those 10-14 days.


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## bykfixer (Dec 18, 2020)

nbp said:


> That’s cool, but Could probably make those even cheaper if every single thing didn’t have to have BT and connect to a smartphone. How about just a simple color change or a plus/minus indicator and cut the price in half.



Agreed. Or perhaps have an option to BT the results to a device like my glucose meter does. In my state there is a tracer app that uses blue tooth to advise you if somebody else in your vacinity has tested positive. I listened to the maker being interviewed on the radio one morning and it sounded like it was pretty private (as in the government or the phone maker) does not provide that info to the web in general. But the more I thought about it the less I wanted a test result, be it high sugar, positive pregnancy result or covid stored in the memory of my portable device. The glucose meter has the option of building a history in a "notes" file for showing a doctor. 

Anyway it's nice to know there is a covid-19 test kit to use at home. It can sure help reduce the spread versus having to stand in line INSIDE a big name drug store waiting to be tested. Yup, my son used to be a manager at a the place that thought it a good idea to have folks tested AT THE FRONT OF THE STORE!! where everybody entering the place passes by. He left the company after 19 years over that great experiment.


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## ledbetter (Dec 18, 2020)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zM1axFGbRFU
info on simpler tests.


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 18, 2020)

Thanks for sharing this, ledbetter. I believe the fancier kit is based on the strips but uses a gadget to read the strip rather than your own eyes. IMO this is much better and far cheaper.


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## bigburly912 (Dec 18, 2020)

Wife is getting her vaccine tomorrow morning as well as several other providers in our area.


Edit to add:
no visible mutations yet. 

Subject is still as hateful as ever

Craving coffee/Breakfast from huddle house


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## Dave_5280 (Dec 19, 2020)

Good article explains Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine.html


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## bykfixer (Dec 19, 2020)

Right on BB. Your area was one of the last hit but holy cow you guys made up for lost time. 

I heard one story on the radio how one of the vaccine distributions had bonus doses nobody expected to some states. Next day I hear due to mix up on filling out order forms some states seemingly will be getting less than the states were saying they'd be getting. It's sad to hear some networks trying to stir up strife over the initial doses. 

"Pot of gold at the end of the rainbow kills 27, story at 11"………


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## raggie33 (Dec 19, 2020)

which country made these ? shots?


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 19, 2020)

Moderna is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. I think the Pfizer vaccine is made in Belgium.


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## Poppy (Dec 19, 2020)

*Where will Pfizer's Covid vaccine be made?*

A Pfizer manufacturing site in Andover will be among locations to produce the vaccine, along with sites in Saint Louis, Missouri, Kalamazoo, Michigan, Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin, and Puurs, Belgium, according to a statement from Pfizer


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## Poppy (Dec 19, 2020)

I heard today that the UK Prime Minister announced that they have a new strain that is more infectious than the previous.

Was it last month that it was announced that we had a second strain that was more infectious? 

IDK if what the UK found is the same, or if it is a third strain.

Thankfully, the experts expect that the vaccine will be effective against that strain as well.


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## raggie33 (Dec 19, 2020)

dang i was hopeing usa came up with the vacine .


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## Poppy (Dec 19, 2020)

[h=3]Pfizer - Wikipedia[/h]en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Pfizer









*Pfizer* Inc is an American multinational pharmaceutical corporation. One of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, it is ranked 57 on the 2018 Fortune ...*Headquarters: *235 East 42nd Street; ‎Manhattan, ...‎

*Number of employees: *c. 88,300 (2019)


*Founders: *Charles Pfizer; ‎Charles F. Erhart‎

*Net income: *US$16.27 billion (2019)


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## turbodog (Dec 19, 2020)

Poppy said:


> I heard today that the UK Prime Minister announced that they have a new strain that is more infectious that the previous.
> 
> Was it last month that it was announced that we had a second strain that was more infectious?
> 
> ...



"bugs" tend to evolve to become both 1) more infectious and 2) less lethal over time.

So far, vaccine works for all strains out there. Current number is at least 3, but not all are commonplace.


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## 5S8Zh5 (Dec 20, 2020)

when you get the vaccine shot do you stop wearing a mask?


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## Poppy (Dec 20, 2020)

5S8Zh5 said:


> when you get the vaccine shot do you stop wearing a mask?


No. You still wear a mask. You can still be a vector to carry the disease to others.


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## Lynx_Arc (Dec 20, 2020)

Only if you are lucky that places you can go to don't require one. Almost every place around here requires masks even if the city doesn't mandate them and 90% of the people are wearing them yet we still are spiking in infections worse than before there was any mask mandates at all but distancing was enforced more rigorously.


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## nbp (Dec 20, 2020)

It’s certainly not spreading primarily in places where masks are enforced like stores, but rather in bars, restaurants, and private parties where people are in close contact for extended periods of time and are not masked. These activities have definitely increased in recent months in many places.


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## Poppy (Dec 20, 2020)

nbp,
Well said!

Also, those who are gathering indoors, don't have ventilation mandates.

I was stunned at the absurdity of so many restaurants who had (and were permitted to have) outdoor dining, under a canopy with heaters, and all four sides were enclosed in tarps! All they did was move their inside indoor dining to outside the building, indoor dining.

Yesterday the NYC mayor mandated that outdoor dining areas must have two open walls.


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## Lynx_Arc (Dec 20, 2020)

If must be spreading where masks are enforced because they are enforced everywhere but private gatherings here and private gatherings cannot totally account for the spikes we are having now since we were put under a mask mandate in early October we have never seen but a temporary slow in increasing infection rates... no flattening the curve at all which leads me to conclude that masks are not very effective as thought.


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## Dave_5280 (Dec 20, 2020)

Global numbers: 76.6M confirmed cases, 1.7M deaths, US: 17.7M cases, 316.7K deaths.
Case mortality rates: 9% Mexico (highest), .9% Turkey (lowest), 1.8% U.S.
Deaths per 100k population: 113 Italy (hi), 7 Indonesia (Lo), 97 U.S.

Johns Hopkins CORONA site: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

JH - testing by state: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview


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## nbp (Dec 20, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> If must be spreading where masks are enforced because they are enforced everywhere but private gatherings here and private gatherings cannot totally account for the spikes we are having now since we were put under a mask mandate in early October we have never seen but a temporary slow in increasing infection rates... no flattening the curve at all which leads me to conclude that masks are not very effective as thought.



Bro, every restaurant and bar here is full to allowed capacity and clearly you can’t eat and wear a mask. Basically everyone inside minus the staff is unmasked. Plus many people get together for meals and parties at their homes. How can you possibly say that the spread is coming from masked people at the grocery store when the most obvious source of spread is these other places? That doesn’t even make sense.


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## Dave_5280 (Dec 20, 2020)

I hope masks work and some are better than others, and you have to wonder about eye protection. I always wear a mask, but I heard one medical doctor claim they didn’t work and it was like trying to catch flies with a chain link fence. I also use one of those 4 inch metal button pusher key like things and wash it. I worry about credit card machine slots since no way to clean them so I sanitize my cards after using them. Nice thing about my Costco card is I can hover it over the self checkout pad in the store and it reads it, same for their gas pump and I also use disposable gloves handling the pump.

We are seeing a lot of friends come down with the virus after flying, so we don’t trust planes despite what they claim. I got chickenpox on a plane, and someone with a lifetime in aviation said they wouldn’t fly because of the virus.

The Brits say the new strain they found is even more infectious, but they don’t yet know if it more lethal.

Coronavirus sucks!


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## Lynx_Arc (Dec 20, 2020)

nbp said:


> Bro, every restaurant and bar here is full to allowed capacity and clearly you can’t eat and wear a mask. Basically everyone inside minus the staff is unmasked. Plus many people get together for meals and parties at their homes. How can you possibly say that the spread is coming from masked people at the grocery store when the most obvious source of spread is these other places? That doesn’t even make sense.


They only allow restaurants to operate at half capacity to allow for distancing measures closing every other booth/table here.
As for grocery stores they always have the aisles jammed full of stuff and someone has a cart parked so you cannot distance yourself you all but kiss them to squeeze by.... often a lot closer than in a restaurant.


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## Lynx_Arc (Dec 20, 2020)

Ironic you talk about people getting the virus flying.... aren't all airlines requiring masks to be worn even down to 2 year olds now?


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 20, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> Ironic you talk about people getting the virus flying.... aren't all airlines requiring masks to be worn even down to 2 year olds now?



I've seen enough videos of anti-maskers being removed from airplanes that I believe this is the case. However now I'm also a little worried about the contents of this "bleed air" from planes.


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## turbodog (Dec 20, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> They only allow restaurants to operate at half capacity to allow for distancing measures closing every other booth/table here.
> As for grocery stores they always have the aisles jammed full of stuff and someone has a cart parked so you cannot distance yourself you all but kiss them to squeeze by.... often a lot closer than in a restaurant.



If you can't win... solution is to not play the game. Pick a different time to buy food.


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## turbodog (Dec 20, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> If must be spreading where masks are enforced because they are enforced everywhere but private gatherings here and private gatherings cannot totally account for the spikes we are having now since we were put under a mask mandate in early October we have never seen but a temporary slow in increasing infection rates... no flattening the curve at all which leads me to conclude that masks are not very effective as thought.



If a person can be a superspreader then so can a place. All it takes is a very small number of places where people do NOT mask/distance and you have a 'crossover' environment.

Also, I looked at Oklahoma numbers. Y'all look like you are not anywhere near a high RATE event. If you are out of hospital beds it's because an exponential growth event is going up against a linear item (bed capacity). Eventually, even where contagion rates are low, it will overwhelm.


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## turbodog (Dec 20, 2020)

The chickens are headed home to roost... I am actually moving into some light fear these days. We are out of bed capacity, and Christmas is Friday.


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## raggie33 (Dec 20, 2020)

turbodog said:


> The chickens are headed home to roost... I am actually moving into some light fear these days. We are out of bed capacity, and Christmas is Friday.



we will be seeing mash type tents soon. i just pray there are enough trained physicans for whats coming


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 20, 2020)

There's that new strain of Covid in the UK that's causing travel lockdowns again. I wonder if they should call it Covid-20 to differentiate it from the current one. I've read that it's more contagious but "maybe" less lethal.


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## Lynx_Arc (Dec 20, 2020)

turbodog said:


> If a person can be a superspreader then so can a place. All it takes is a very small number of places where people do NOT mask/distance and you have a 'crossover' environment.
> 
> Also, I looked at Oklahoma numbers. Y'all look like you are not anywhere near a high RATE event. If you are out of hospital beds it's because an exponential growth event is going up against a linear item (bed capacity). Eventually, even where contagion rates are low, it will overwhelm.



We have planned for such an event there is alternative beds that can be put into service here but the problem is health care workers to service the patients from what I have heard. Oklahoma awhile back had the 3rd highest percentage rate of infection from what I have heard here.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 20, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> we will be seeing mash type tents soon. i just pray there are enough trained physicans for whats coming


Actually, lack of trained personnel is the biggest problem. We can set up beds and even entire portable hospitals without too much trouble. Staffing them is another story.


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## Lynx_Arc (Dec 20, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> There's that new strain of Covid in the UK that's causing travel lockdowns again. I wonder if they should call it Covid-20 to differentiate it from the current one. I've read that it's more contagious but "maybe" less lethal.



I'm guessing that the number after Covid is the year it was discovered so 20 may be correct and the way things are going there could be a 21 in the future.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 20, 2020)

turbodog said:


> The chickens are headed home to roost... I am actually moving into some light fear these days. We are out of bed capacity, and Christmas is Friday.


I'm surprised after the results from Thanksgiving that we just didn't shut down air travel, and restrict highway travel, in order to prevent a repeat at Christmas. When I was watching all the people traveling for Thanksgiving, it was like watching a train wreck in slow motion. I knew what the results were going to be. Deaths now are all the more tragic because we're probably six months away from being able to see vaccinations bring a gradual end to this.

Numbers are trending up in NYC, although not as rapidly as elsewhere. I'm hoping the numbers rise slow enough so we never run out of hospital beds before vaccinations start to bring things under control.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 20, 2020)

turbodog said:


> If you can't win... solution is to not play the game. Pick a different time to buy food.


Hence the reason why I go food shopping every two weeks, and go about 20 minutes before closing when the store is virtually empty. It was a bit more crowded when I went two days before Thanksgiving. I'll try to hit it tomorrow to avoid most of the Christmas rush. Right now infection percentages are getting close to the point where I'll no longer feel comfortable going to the store. Earlier this year I avoided the grocery store from mid March through early July for that reason.


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## raggie33 (Dec 20, 2020)

i think we can train are natinal guard to take care of the symtons while we have on real dr in charge of 5 or so trainies. best thing john q public can do is wear a maak dont go out unless there is no other choice


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## jtr1962 (Dec 20, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> best thing john q public can do is wear a maak dont go out unless there is no other choice


+1

If only more people did this.

You don't have to visit relatives.
You don't have to go to bars.
You don't have to go to places of worship.
You don't have to go to nail salons, tattoo parlors, gyms, indoor restaurants, etc.
You don't even have to go to outdoor restaurants, although if you really miss dining out at least that's a somewhat safer option.

People who can't work at home have to go to work. You probably have to occasionally buy groceries. If something breaks in your home you might have to go Home Depot or Lowes if you can't order parts online in a timely manner. If you can't get around without a car you have to get your car fixed if it breaks. I probably missed a few things but that's the general idea. There are only a few reasons people have to go out for. Everything else is optional.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Dec 20, 2020)

jtr1962 said:


> +1
> 
> If only more people did this.
> 
> ...



Perhaps you have no understanding of spiritual matters. If this is true, we forgive you your ignorance. Nevertheless, probably best to stay in your own lane.

Let us not give up the habit of meeting together, as some are doing. Instead, let us encourage one another all the more, since you see that the Day of the Lord is coming nearer. 
Hebrews 10:25


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## raggie33 (Dec 20, 2020)

i was in store today to get grocerys i tried the online thing but amason either brought me meats at unsafe temps or they forgot halve my order. but today while in line 3 of the people ahead of me was just buying lotto tickets


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## jtr1962 (Dec 20, 2020)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Perhaps you have no understanding of spiritual matters. If this is true, we forgive you your ignorance. Nevertheless, probably best to stay in your own lane.
> 
> Let us not give up the habit of meeting together, as some are doing. Instead, let us encourage one another all the more, since you see that the Day of the Lord is coming nearer.
> Hebrews 10:25


I'm discussing this strictly from a necessary, as in necessary to stay alive, perspective. You need food, water, and shelter to remain alive. Everything else is more about quality of life. Anything done indoors with people whose disease status is unknown is going to facilitate the spread of covid-19. If the things on my list can be done outdoors, with masks, and with social distancing then they're a lot less likely to spread covid. Unfortunately, that's not what I'm seeing.


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## turbodog (Dec 20, 2020)

jtr1962 said:


> I'm surprised after the results from Thanksgiving that we just didn't shut down air travel, and restrict highway travel, in order to prevent a repeat at Christmas. When I was watching all the people traveling for Thanksgiving, it was like watching a train wreck in slow motion. I knew what the results were going to be. Deaths now are all the more tragic because we're probably six months away from being able to see vaccinations bring a gradual end to this.
> 
> Numbers are trending up in NYC, although not as rapidly as elsewhere. I'm hoping the numbers rise slow enough so we never run out of hospital beds before vaccinations start to bring things under control.



I doubt a widespread ban of any sort will be enacted right now. I figure it will play out like this:

Christmas travel
spike
New year's
more spike
healthcare overwhelmed more or less nationwide to the point of ambulances running behind, people passing in ER while waiting to be seen

At that point, you'll see voluntary actions (finally) regardless of what the law or mandates are.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 20, 2020)

turbodog said:


> I doubt a widespread ban of any sort will be enacted right now. I figure it will play out like this:
> 
> Christmas travel
> spike
> ...


Sad but true. I think we're heading towards peaking at 10K to 20K daily deaths before things start heading in the other direction. The numbers are already frightening. Having been at the epicenter this spring and seeing how bad this can get, I'm saddened to see the rest of the country going through this now. North and South Dakota in particular stand out. Until fall they had a relatively low death rate. Now in terms of deaths per million people they're at #3 and #6 in the US. They'll likely be #1 and #2 soon at the rate things are going. Lots of other states which were hardly hit by this until the fall are catching up frighteningly fast.


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## turbodog (Dec 20, 2020)

I'll (re)post this. It's from the beginning of all this, but it's still true.

If you have access to daily historical data for your state, make a spreadsheet and plug it in. If anyone needs help with the excel stuff, let me know.

It's an excellent method to determine what the trend is... are we getting worse, better, or holding steady. Due to the growth nature of infections it's much harder to tell this than you would think. 

*If you don't watch the whole thing (it's a fairly short video, well done, and pretty interesting) then at least listen to 1:25-1:50.* In short, you can replace the word "country" with state, region, town, city, etc. If the numbers in your 'area' are not bad yet, just wait, they will be until you take steps.

Edit: after skimming it again I will point out that his testing comments are only partially valid. Testing was increasing when the video was made. Currently, it's dropping (evidenced by increasing positivity rates).





Video/source referenced in the video above. With neat, time-delay, graphing.

[video]https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/[/video]


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## nbp (Dec 20, 2020)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Perhaps you have no understanding of spiritual matters. If this is true, we forgive you your ignorance. Nevertheless, probably best to stay in your own lane.
> 
> Let us not give up the habit of meeting together, as some are doing. Instead, let us encourage one another all the more, since you see that the Day of the Lord is coming nearer.
> Hebrews 10:25



We’ve been having worship twice a week via Zoom since the end of March. If you’re willing to be a little flexible you can absolutely keep up your spirituality without endangering your congregation.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 20, 2020)

Link to the chart shown in the video turbodog posted.

This is all about math. Cases rise exponentially unless steps are taken. Deaths follow in 2 to 4 weeks. If anyone wants to plot this in Excel, use 7-day averages as the data are much smoother, but you'll still see trends. Basically, if R0, or the number of new infections each infected person causes, is over one, the infections will rise exponentially. Higher R0s will result in more rapid increases, but in all cases the rise is still exponential, just with larger or smaller exponents. R0s under 1 will result in decreased infections. Masks, distancing, staying home unless you have no choice are all ways to decrease R0.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 20, 2020)

nbp said:


> We’ve been having worship twice a week via Zoom since the end of March. If you’re willing to be a little flexible you can absolutely keep up your spirituality without endangering your congregation.


+1


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## bykfixer (Dec 21, 2020)

The other night I was working a double over nighter and stopped in a big name gas station for some coffee after midnight. I was in the capital city of my state near an industrial area so there were no bars or any places where large gatherings would occur……or so I thought. It was packed with 20 something year old Vans wearing hipsters. Good Gosh! All had red glassy eyes but everybody was wearing a face cover. I got this visual of a crowd of youths wearing masks, all in a circle with a bon fire in the middle. They've got some raggae music playing nearby and they are swaying to the Ziggy Marley tune. Someone lights up a joint and passes it to the next person. As it reaches each person they pull their mask down, take a drag, pull the mask back up and pass it to the next person with each youngster thinking that wearing a mask keeps them safe because the internet blogger says it does. 

So I got my coffee, making sure I stayed at least 6 feet away from each person in front and behind. Realizing that distancing, not touching my face, avoiding crowds when able, and wondering how many people in that crowded gas station were spreading the virus without even realizing it. We have a midnight curfew in my state except for people working at their job or travelling to and from said job. It was pretty obvious to me why my governor put it in place now. I scratched my head on that one at first but early Saturday morning saw why it was put in place. I'm not trying to bash todays youth with this post. Lord knows everybody reading this was at one point or is. I was just pointing out that there are numerous ways we can all be spreading colds, flu, or the novel corona without even realizing it. 

At my work I was speaking with a young engineer who said he's been home bound since March. He was estatic to be standing around in sub freezing drizzle doing the perverbial watching paint dry thing us inspector do. So you multiply that by millions of folks his age being cooped up month after month. They're bored. I would be too. 

Humans are gregarious. We need human to human contact for best results or we lose our sanity. I attended a real live meeting last week where a bunch of really talented people stood in a C shape outdoors. Everybody wore a mask but one guy. Nobody was touching anybody but in order to hear each other though a mask we were all within 6 feet of one another at times. The guy without the mask stood back and took notes. The meeting was to go over last minute details on building an experiment so experts in their field were making sure others understood the concepts of their particular sector of the process. At the end everybody agreed it was way more beneficial to gather in person. One engineer said "xoom meetings are like talking to people from the space station, you just don't get that connection feeling you get from a live meeting". He continued "In all of the internet meetings we held before I had the feeling we weren't completely understanding each other so that is why I called for this one today, and I appologize if anyone was reluctant to attend". 

The next night the pieces of the puzzle were assembled flawlessly. That in person gathering had ensured all T's were crossed and all I's were dotted in a way that you just can't accomplish through a computer meeting.


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## raggie33 (Dec 21, 2020)

i got thrown out of medical school for making faces at the primates we had on campus . they never shared there bananas .but ive been thinking can the vacine at first make all this worse? due to people having a false sence of secuity ?


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## Poppy (Dec 21, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> <SNIP>
> 
> The next night the pieces of the puzzle were assembled flawlessly. That in person gathering had ensured all T's were crossed and all I's were dotted in a way that you just can't accomplish through a computer meeting.



Mr Fixer,
The point that "in person" meetings may be more impactful than zoom meetings, was very nicely made. Good job.


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## Poppy (Dec 21, 2020)

nbp said:


> We’ve been having worship twice a week via Zoom since the end of March. If you’re willing to be a little flexible you can absolutely keep up your spirituality without endangering your congregation.


nbp,
I agree! Flexibility is key.

Certainly the TV Evangelists seem to get their messages across to masses of people.

and regarding this interpretation from the Bible:


> Let us not give up the habit of meeting together, as some are doing. Instead, let us encourage one another all the more, since you see that the Day of the Lord is coming nearer.
> Hebrews 10:25



This was written a few years before there was such a thing as TV, Zoom, FaceTime, or Duo.
IMO it can NOT be justification for large gatherings of people indoors (at a time of a pandemic), when science has determined that large gatherings of people, especially indoors, create super spreader events.

This passage is more about encouraging one another not to sin, because: 

Hebrews 10:26 goes on to say:
For if we sin wilfully after that we have received the knowledge of the truth, there remaineth no more sacrifice for sins,

_____________________________________________________

Again... IMO Hebrews 10:25 taken out of context, does not justify putting the community at large in danger of a super spreader event. Especially when there are other vehicles for meetings, such as zoom, etc.


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## Poppy (Dec 21, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> i got thrown out of medical school for making faces at the primates we had on campus . they never shared there bananas .but ive been thinking can the vacine at first make all this worse? due to people having a false sence of secuity ?


Yes raggie, I have the same concern.

Although its been reported that about 500,000 people have been vaccinated, that is only 0.15% of the US population.
That is just spit in the bucket.

I hope that we are both wrong.
poppy


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Dec 21, 2020)

nbp said:


> We’ve been having worship twice a week via Zoom since the end of March. If you’re willing to be a little flexible you can absolutely keep up your spirituality without endangering your congregation.



A little flexible: Our members have been social distancing during all church functions for months. Everyone wears a face mask at all times. Everyone has their temperature taken before entering the building. Our choir no longer sings. Our members no longer sing. We have altered the means by which Holy Communion is served. Members only sit in every other pew, and only with household family members. Funerals are limited to 30 people. Receptions are being delayed. 

And yes, nbp, we stream our second service every week. I'm wondering how ya'll facilitate Holy Communion via Zoom. 

Please understand I'm not complaining about any of the above stated measures. I'm merely pointing out that we have been and will continue to be flexible. 

Nevertheless, anyone that states, You don't have to go to places of worship. demonstrates he has no understanding of why members come together to form Church. Nor does he understand how integral forming Church is to the people that have been doing so all their life. 

Can I get an amen?


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## Katherine Alicia (Dec 21, 2020)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Nevertheless, anyone that states, You don't have to go to places of worship. demonstrates he has no understanding of why members come together to form Church. Nor does he understand how integral forming Church is to the people that have been doing so all their life.



yeah, it`s still a just a Choice though and nothing more, and claiming it`s something Otherwise or it somehow makes you "Special" and gives you the right to put others in danger is just a conceit.


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## nbp (Dec 21, 2020)

No one is arguing that it isn’t important to worship together, but getting back together as a group is going to be a lot more enjoyable if everyone is alive for it. Look at the age demographics for those who attend religious services. A LOT of old people. The ones most likely to suffer or die from C19. This isn’t forever, it’s just a temporary way to protect your friends until you can meet safely, young and old alike. If you think you’re the only one here who values in person services you’re off your rocker, man. Phil. 2:4 tells us to look out not only for our own interests but those of others. The primary motivation for any Christian should be love, and love for your friends should incite you to do what you can to keep them safe. I have nothing else to add aside from the request that we don’t get too deep into the weeds on this topic.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 21, 2020)

Katherine Alicia said:


> yeah, it`s still a just a Choice though and nothing more, and claiming it`s something Otherwise or it somehow makes you "Special" and gives you the right to put others in danger is just a conceit.


That's exactly my problem with this. I respect the right of people to believe in a religion but that doesn't exempt them from their duty as citizens to not put others in danger. Note I also had lots of other activities on my list which undoubtedly those who partake of them regularly consider integral to their lives. However, until this pandemic is over they simply need to not do those activities to prevent further spread of covid-19. Unfortunately, as we're seeing by the numbers, far too many people are considering whatever activities they like to be more important than their duty to slow the spread of this disease. The ironic part is if we just did what the medical experts said we should we would have gotten through this much more quickly. Remember many Asian countries have been largely able to keep things open and still keep the numbers of sick people relatively low. Why? Nearly everyone wears a mask, and they have robust testing and contact tracing to quash any flareups. Unfortunately, once case numbers pass a certain threshold, as they have in the US and Europe, contact tracing is no longer possible. That means major restrictions, even complete shutdowns, are the only course left to slow the spread. That's where we are now, but it didn't have to be that way.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 21, 2020)

nbp said:


> This isn’t forever, it’s just a temporary way to protect your friends until you can meet safely, young and old alike.


Thank you, that's really my main point. In hopefully less than a year, this will all be over, we'll all be able to get back to doing whatever it is we enjoy. I haven't been getting together with my siblings for birthdays or holidays this year. For me this is harder than for most because I've already been pretty much home bound for the last five years taking care of my mother. I can't even take a trip on the subway to Manhattan unless I can arrange for my brother to mind my mother while I'm gone. As such, I have very limited human contact. However, by avoiding get togethers until this is over at least I know we'll all be alive for get togethers in the future. We have to think of this pandemic as a war, except it's against an enemy we can't see. The US won wars in part by the great sacrifices its citizens made. We need to get back into that mindset if we're ever going to beat this thing. Remember this isn't the first pandemic, it won't be the last.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 21, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> The other night I was working a double over nighter and stopped in a big name gas station for some coffee after midnight. I was in the capital city of my state near an industrial area so there were no bars or any places where large gatherings would occur……or so I thought. It was packed with 20 something year old Vans wearing hipsters. Good Gosh! All had red glassy eyes but everybody was wearing a face cover. I got this visual of a crowd of youths wearing masks, all in a circle with a bon fire in the middle. They've got some raggae music playing nearby and they are swaying to the Ziggy Marley tune. Someone lights up a joint and passes it to the next person. As it reaches each person they pull their mask down, take a drag, pull the mask back up and pass it to the next person with each youngster thinking that wearing a mask keeps them safe because the internet blogger says it does.
> 
> So I got my coffee, making sure I stayed at least 6 feet away from each person in front and behind. Realizing that distancing, not touching my face, avoiding crowds when able, and wondering how many people in that crowded gas station were spreading the virus without even realizing it. We have a midnight curfew in my state except for people working at their job or travelling to and from said job. It was pretty obvious to me why my governor put it in place now. I scratched my head on that one at first but early Saturday morning saw why it was put in place. I'm not trying to bash todays youth with this post. Lord knows everybody reading this was at one point or is. I was just pointing out that there are numerous ways we can all be spreading colds, flu, or the novel corona without even realizing it.
> 
> ...


This is a very interesting post. My take on this is similar to my take on remote learning, which has largely been judged a failure. I submit that the problem isn't the concept, but the fact the tools are still in their infancy. We need much better tools than things like zoom. Imagine if we had virtual reality which provided a more immersive experience so that virtual meetings would be similar to actually being there. At that point there would really be little difference in terms of understanding each other or getting your points across. The fact is virtual meetings aren't going anywhere, even after the pandemic. It's just too convenient to be able to meet others from the comfort of your home. Moreover, you avoid all the scheduling conflicts which often derail in-person meetings. We just need to work on making better tools. Same thing for remote learning. Post-pandemic we should continue to offer it to the children who prefer to learn at home. As someone who was bullied in grade school, I would have greatly preferred that option back when I was in school. But as with meetings, the tools need to improve. Smarter children have done well with remote learning, but others haven't. If they could be in a virtual classroom environment I think it would have worked out much better.


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## Poppy (Dec 21, 2020)

Hmmm, better video class room tools?


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## idleprocess (Dec 21, 2020)

jtr1962 said:


> This is a very interesting post. My take on this is similar to my take on remote learning, which has largely been judged a failure. I submit that the problem isn't the concept, but the fact the tools are still in their infancy. We need much better tools than things like zoom. Imagine if we had virtual reality which provided a more immersive experience so that virtual meetings would be similar to actually being there. At that point there would really be little difference in terms of understanding each other or getting your points across. The fact is virtual meetings aren't going anywhere, even after the pandemic. It's just too convenient to be able to meet others from the comfort of your home. Moreover, you avoid all the scheduling conflicts which often derail in-person meetings. We just need to work on making better tools. Same thing for remote learning. Post-pandemic we should continue to offer it to the children who prefer to learn at home. As someone who was bullied in grade school, I would have greatly preferred that option back when I was in school. But as with meetings, the tools need to improve. Smarter children have done well with remote learning, but others haven't. If they could be in a virtual classroom environment I think it would have worked out much better.



I believe there's absolutely room to improve on videoconferencing and telepresence, however I don't foresee major changes any time soon that make the experience _competitive_ with in-person meetings. Yes, the software can be better and more intuitive. Yes, faster internet connections with lower latency will help. VR headsets with (non-goofy) avatars and a 3D space to meet in could make it more immersive. More usage will bite into the unfamiliarity of it all. But in any reasonably foreseeable short-term future it will still lack the immediacy of _literally being present_ without the realtime subtle social queues our brains have considerable circuitry dedicated to processing.

I concur that self-paced/remote learning is indeed appropriate for more primary school students than we've used it for prior. _However_, wider adoption of this may necessitate some changes to social norms - and laws - regarding leaving children unsupervised since not all parents can work from home and those that do cannot necessarily monitor their children at the same time.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 21, 2020)

idleprocess said:


> I believe there's absolutely room to improve on videoconferencing and telepresence, however I don't foresee major changes any time soon that make the experience _competitive_ with in-person meetings. Yes, the software can be better and more intuitive. Yes, faster internet connections with lower latency will help. VR headsets with (non-goofy) avatars and a 3D space to meet in could make it more immersive. More usage will bite into the unfamiliarity of it all. But in any reasonably foreseeable short-term future it will still lack the immediacy of _literally being present_ without the realtime subtle social queues our brains have considerable circuitry dedicated to processing.
> 
> I concur that self-paced/remote learning is indeed appropriate for more primary school students than we've used it for prior. _However_, wider adoption of this may necessitate some changes to social norms - and laws - regarding leaving children unsupervised since not all parents can work from home and those that do cannot necessarily monitor their children at the same time.


Obviously the hardware isn't quite there yet. Also, until remote meetings saw widespread use there probably wasn't much incentive to improve the software much past the "it just works" point. As for avatars, I'm actually thinking of people having their faces 3D scanned, then using that as an avatar. The idea is to make the experience as close to an in-person meeting as possible. Think something like the holodeck on Star Trek.

Thinking back to my grade school experience, I'd say easily half the classroom time was wasted. Either the teacher was trying to control the few unruly kids, or we were doing stuff like writing "I must not talk in class" 1,000 times as group punishment. Something that lets smarter kids proceed at their own pace from home would be a huge improvement. The US educational system is failing smarter kids more than any other group.


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## raggie33 (Dec 21, 2020)

how should i handle people who dont give me my 5 feet? ive had a few so close it was like 1 or 2 feet. ive been just moving to another casher. but this way is time consuming what do you all do?


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## Katherine Alicia (Dec 21, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> how should i handle people who dont give me my 5 feet? ive had a few so close it was like 1 or 2 feet. ive been just moving to another casher. but this way is time consuming what do you all do?



Start coughing.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 21, 2020)

Wear a social distancing donut.


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## idleprocess (Dec 21, 2020)

jtr1962 said:


> Obviously the hardware isn't quite there yet. Also, until remote meetings saw widespread use there probably wasn't much incentive to improve the software much past the "it just works" point. As for avatars, I'm actually thinking of people having their faces 3D scanned, then using that as an avatar. The idea is to make the experience as close to an in-person meeting as possible. Think something like the holodeck on Star Trek.


Offset stereoscopic cameras building a realtime 3D model of your face could probably do the trick without a static 3D scan and capture expressions with greater fidelity. Heck, small-scale low power LIDAR is getting cheap - could use that in addition to cameras to continuously 3D scan and 'texturize' the face, one's upper torso, or a room.

The slow _slow_ uptake of VR headsets suggests to me that the concept as it exists now isn't going to be the worldbeater that its proponents wish for it to be; much like 3D television and Google Glass we don't seem to want to _wear_ a display - even eyeglasses remain unpopular with so many choosing fiddly contact lenses or mildly risky laser surgery. I expect VR to be limited to dedicated enthusiasts for several more years.



jtr1962 said:


> Thinking back to my grade school experience, I'd say easily half the classroom time was wasted. Either the teacher was trying to control the few unruly kids, or we were doing stuff like writing "I must not talk in class" 1,000 times as group punishment. Something that lets smarter kids proceed at their own pace from home would be a huge improvement. The US educational system is failing smarter kids more than any other group.


One-size-fits-all struck me as troublesome when I was in primary school decades ago as well. Self-paced _vis-à-vis_ how much secondary instruction is done seems like the way to go as soon as a student is ready for it so long as they can consult with a teacher as needed - this is after all the nature of how so much work is done in the economy.


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## Poppy (Dec 21, 2020)

raggie,
When standing in line, I give 8-10 feet. ( I think that it is safer, and that it sets an example, and makes a statement, that *I* want distance). Rarely do I have some clown climbing up my back, but the few times that I did, I'd turn to him and say "Hey, 6 feet right?" once, I had a guy repeatedly get too close, and I had to stretch out my arms and say, "Hey bro! THIS is six feet!" 

You've asked this in the past, and stated that you are afraid of getting shot. My neighborhood is much gentler than that. I don't have that fear. Perhaps, you should look into home delivery.


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## raggie33 (Dec 21, 2020)

Poppy said:


> raggie,
> When standing in line, I give 8-10 feet. ( I think that it is safer, and that it sets an example, and makes a statement, that *I* want distance). Rarely do I have some clown climbing up my back, but the few times that I did, I'd turn to him and say "Hey, 6 feet right?" once, I had a guy repeatedly get too close, and I had to stretch out my arms and say, "Hey bro! THIS is six feet!"
> 
> You've asked this in the past, and stated that you are afraid of getting shot. My neighborhood is much gentler than that. I don't have that fear. Perhaps, you should look into home delivery.



dang my memory is horrific its is scary bad. i tried delivery but food was at unsafe temps at delevery and sometimes they forget half my order


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## Poppy (Dec 21, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> dang my memory is horrific its is scary bad. i tried delivery but food was at unsafe temps at delevery and sometimes they forget half my order


I know how I would handle this. How did YOU handle this?


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## raggie33 (Dec 21, 2020)

i gave up i think im just to far from the warehouse


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## Poppy (Dec 21, 2020)

idleprocess said:


> <SNIP>
> 
> 
> One-size-fits-all struck me as troublesome when I was in primary school decades ago as well. Self-paced _vis-à-vis_ how much secondary instruction is done seems like the way to go as soon as a student is ready for it so long as they can consult with a teacher as needed - this is after all the nature of how so much work is done in the economy.


jtr1962 and idleprocess, 
I am enjoying your discussion. Very thoughtful.

My parents often got a notation on my report card, that I would be a better student if I would stop daydreaming.

LOL... once, I recall that my teacher asked, "Why is it better to use running hot water to clean your toothbrush after brushing your teeth, than it is to put it in a glass of water?" 
Well... I knew the answer to that question! I raised my hand and was called on... "it is better to knock the toothpaste off!"
Apparently she had spent the last fifteen minutes speaking of GERMS! 
I had been busy making various animals out of the clouds, I could see out of the windows.

OMG grammar school was terribly boring. The first time the teacher said it, I got it! The second and third time she repeated it for those who didn't get it, I was checking out the clouds. 

Socially, I had a lisp, still do, but not as pronounced. I was also skinny, and a little less than average athletically, often near to the last picked for a team. I'd been verbally bullied a little here and there, called a sissy, and in 6th or 7th grade for maybe a week, I was physically pushed around by a group of kids, 6 or 8 of them. I was afraid to go to school. When my Dad found out, he called each of the parents and told them to bring their kid to our back yard on Saturday, and my son will fight each of them one on one. 

Holy snot! That scared the snot out of me! Each of them were bigger, and older than I. I was the youngest in the class, and some of those were left backs. Fortunately only one showed up, and he was crying and apologizing.

During the summer between 8th grade and high school, someone told me that it's cool to wear white socks with black shoes.
Maybe the style changed before I got to high school, I don't know, but my first day there, someone pointed at my white socks and laughed about it. You know it's been said that the only thing more cruel than a child, is a group of children.

I was very fortunate that I went from a small graduating class of 45 students, to a high school of 1,000 freshmen. Those people didn't know that I was the sissy that they could pick on and bully. The stigma had not already been set. I had enough of THAT! 

Within the first week or two of school, some kid who was bigger than me and had 30-40 pounds on me (mainly fat), pushed and verbally assaulted me in the hallway where our lockers were. I hit him with my locker door, and a single right cross, and then backed off to see what he would do. Nothing. We later became friends. There were witnesses. Whether word got around or not, I don't know.

This is one of the social events that changed my life.

All of this to say, it is a shame that the educators are told to teach to the middle. The smarter ones are bored and are not pushed to their highest potential, and the slower ones are somewhat left behind.

Also, there is a need for personal physical interaction, that I think virtual interaction will be lacking for quite a time.

Being bullied formed a part of my personality. I do not tolerate bullies. I'll defend those being bullied, almost as quickly, and sometimes more quickly, than I would defend myself. Overall, I think that it has made me a better person. OTOH I don't want to see anyone go through it.

Let's hope that virtual learning evolves to being better at education, while still building life long relationships that we build through our lives.


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## raggie33 (Dec 21, 2020)

Poppy said:


> jtr1962 and idleprocess,
> I am enjoying your discussion. Very thoughtful.
> 
> My parents often got a notation on my report card, that I would be a better student if I would stop daydreaming.
> ...



. have a nice night poppy. i hope things improve for you


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## Poppy (Dec 22, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> . have a nice night poppy. i hope things improve for you


Thanks raggie33,
Life is good!
My daughter and grandkids are home with me. She's able to work from home, and the kids are doing great with virtual learning. Thankfully they have each other, and can zoom and play online games with friends.

I do look forward to the day that they can freely socialize and make new friends, in person. 
Summer is coming, and so is freedom of movement.

You too raggie, have a great day.


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## KITROBASKIN (Dec 22, 2020)

My college sweetheart and lifelong friend lost her father to this scourge.


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## turbodog (Dec 23, 2020)

Where's a link to current deaths demographics versus early & mid ones. Want to compare 2020q1, q2, q3, and q4 stats.

Is it moving into the lower age groups? If so, how much? Etc.


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## LeanBurn (Dec 23, 2020)

In my province of Alberta Canada, the government publish health stats per year. In 2019, the deaths from the seasonal flu with no comorbitities was 39.

This year (2020) there is no listing for seasonal flu for reasons unknown, but the number of deaths to date from covid-19 with no comorbitities is 19.

It is strange.


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## turbodog (Dec 23, 2020)

LeanBurn said:


> In my province of Alberta Canada, the government publish health stats per year. In 2019, the deaths from the seasonal flu with no comorbitities was 39.
> 
> This year (2020) there is no listing for seasonal flu for reasons unknown, but the number of deaths to date from covid-19 with no comorbitities is 19.
> 
> It is strange.



Regarding the Flu numbers... data I have seen says that Flu is WAY down across the board. Record numbers of people have taken the vaccine, and masks/distancing are holding the numbers to record lows.


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## Empath (Dec 25, 2020)

It took another; this time a little more personal. My sister's husband passed away last night on Christmas Eve from covid-19.
We were the same age.


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## turbodog (Dec 25, 2020)

Empath said:


> It took another; this time a little more personal. My sister's husband passed away last night on Christmas Eve from covid-19.
> We were the same age.



At home? Unexpectedly? Or in a care setting of some sort?


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 25, 2020)

Empath said:


> It took another; this time a little more personal. My sister's husband passed away last night on Christmas Eve from covid-19.
> We were the same age.




I am so sorry to hear this, Empath. My sincere condolences to you and your sister.


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## scout24 (Dec 26, 2020)

My deepest condolences, Empath.


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## Empath (Dec 26, 2020)

turbodog said:


> At home? Unexpectedly? Or in a care setting of some sort?



He was hospitalized, and had underlying conditions.


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## nbp (Dec 26, 2020)

Very sorry to hear this Empath. My sympathies to your family. :candle:


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## idleprocess (Dec 26, 2020)

Denton County, TX numbers are starting to look worse:






_ICU capacity is increasingly going to COVID patients._





_Case numbers continue to rise steeply._

... And we haven't seen the inevitable bumps we're going to see in ~13 days post Christmas and in ~20 days post New Years since pre-Christmas air travel set _pandemic_ records. Locally I saw a number of Christmas parties, and there will invariably be large gatherings for New Years. And it's going to take months for vaccines to be broadly available. I fear that the 2020-2021 flu season is going to be quite deadly and medical systems will go into triage mode like we've never seen before.


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## raggie33 (Dec 26, 2020)

Empath said:


> It took another; this time a little more personal. My sister's husband passed away last night on Christmas Eve from covid-19.
> We were the same age.


im sorry my freind


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## turbodog (Dec 26, 2020)

The ICU situation worsening is also fueled by non-covid patients. We should start to see some covid numbers come it right about the time for new year's. Maybe that will convince people to stay home.


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## bykfixer (Dec 27, 2020)

May your bro-n-law RIP empath. 
Christmas Eve? Yikes, that'll put a new twist on Christmas from now on.


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 29, 2020)

It looks like the Covid variant (mutation) is in Colorado now.


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## raggie33 (Dec 29, 2020)

do you think its safe to see my father and sister? i dont get to see them often so i value seeing them. but i dont want to risk covid 19


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## raggie33 (Dec 29, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> It looks like the Covid variant (mutation) is in Colorado now.



im pretty sure its in atl to


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 29, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> im pretty sure its in atl to



It's probably in more places in the US than we know by now. Florida's positivity rate shot up from 11% to 23% in one day. A variant that spreads more easily could explain this. Although it could also be explained by holiday gatherings.


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## nbp (Dec 29, 2020)

Also, in some places overall testing numbers are down so the percentage of positive cases is up correspondingly.


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 29, 2020)

More hope is on the horizon as a new antibody treatment from UCLH and AstraZeneca is going into phase 3 trials. This one is for people who have been exposed but haven't gotten sick yet. It could prevent them from falling ill.


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## turbodog (Dec 30, 2020)

Word of caution. 

Your 'bubble' (social, work, personal, shopping) may be good or very good. But go ahead and plan for it to be invaded. At this time, I am seeing all but the very best bubbles start to be penetrated. It took much longer than expected but it's happening, and this was BEFORE the Christmas travel.

Wife had it and goes back to work tomorrow. Countermeasures: We ran a humidifier 24x7 along with pretty much all the ceiling fans to get the moist air distributed. She took the master suite over. Trips to the rest of the house were followed with wiping down fridge handle, kitchen faucet, doorknobs, and all surfaces touched.

We will continue the humidification for a long while, and are considering UV lights in the HVAC.

My hope is a drastically accelerated production & distribution very soon. (the vaccine of course, the virus is doing quite well on its own)


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## Katherine Alicia (Dec 30, 2020)

turbodog said:


> My hope is a drastically accelerated production & distribution very soon. (the vaccine of course, the virus is doing quite well on its own)



That`s just given me an idea, Why can`t a vaccine be made to spread in the same way as the `rona? like an anti-virus virus.


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## Daniel_sk (Dec 30, 2020)

Good thinking . Yes in theory we can modify a benign virus to have similar "shell" like the Covid-19 virus and let it spread and train the immune systems of the whole population. But this comes with great risks and questions. Life can't be simply contained and mutations will happen and we could end up in bigger mess than we currently are.


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## Daniel_sk (Dec 30, 2020)

Katherine Alicia said:


> That`s just given me an idea, Why can`t a vaccine be made to spread in the same way as the `rona? like an anti-virus virus.


I think you will enjoy this article: https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/reverse-engineering-source-code-of-the-biontech-pfizer-vaccine/ 
It explains how the vaccine works in more detail and draws comparison to anti-virus on PC and RAM/Flash storage . It goes through the whole source code of the vaccine. I was amazed how far have we got in the recent years, we can basically write DNA code and then print it out with DNA printers.


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## Katherine Alicia (Dec 30, 2020)

well it`s always struck me as being a bit one sided, we have Bacteria for instance both `Good` and `Bad` in fact without the good bacteria we would die! and yet viruses only ever seem to do bad stuff, can`t we code something that would actually be of Benefit and helpful to us for a change?
seems like it could be a powerful ally if we knew how to harness it properly.


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## Daniel_sk (Dec 30, 2020)

Non-replicating viruses with modified DNA are already being used in experimental gene treatments and there is a huge opportunity to expand this usage for targeted cancer treatment and so on. So in the end, viruses can be also good for us (scientific article: The Good Viruses Do). We are only beginning to scratch the surface here. 
In the recent years modified viruses are used to cure Cystic Fibrosis, which is a health condition that you are born with and it's caused by a wrong genetic information in all of your cells. Until we could only suppress the effects by taking expensive drugs for your whole lifetime but even that would be of limited help and life expectancy is shorter. Instead of treating the symptoms we can fix the error in the genetic code by using a virus to deliver the "update" or "patch" to each cell. I guess I am going off topic here but it's very interesting.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 30, 2020)

Katherine Alicia said:


> well it`s always struck me as being a bit one sided, we have Bacteria for instance both `Good` and `Bad` in fact without the good bacteria we would die! and yet viruses only ever seem to do bad stuff, can`t we code something that would actually be of Benefit and helpful to us for a change?
> seems like it could be a powerful ally if we knew how to harness it properly.


In nature viruses are already quite beneficial. In fact, life on this planet couldn't exist without them:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200617-what-if-all-viruses-disappeared


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## turbodog (Dec 30, 2020)

Katherine Alicia said:


> well it`s always struck me as being a bit one sided, we have Bacteria for instance both `Good` and `Bad` in fact without the good bacteria we would die! and yet viruses only ever seem to do bad stuff, can`t we code something that would actually be of Benefit and helpful to us for a change?
> seems like it could be a powerful ally if we knew how to harness it properly.



This is how we get zombies!

In seriousness... making an active spreading virus pretty much violates every professional ethics rule out there.


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## Monocrom (Dec 30, 2020)

For those who haven't heard, Dawn Wells (Mary Ann on "Gilligan's Island") passed away today, due to complications from Covid-19.


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## raggie33 (Dec 30, 2020)

how are tgey going to decide who gets a hopital bed? or gets booted?


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## idleprocess (Dec 30, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> how are tgey going to decide who gets a hopital bed? or gets booted?



Triage protocols are a thing in hospitals when demand exceeds capacity.


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## bykfixer (Dec 31, 2020)

Mrs Fixer helps out a widower from time to time. Her friend passed away from cancer a while back so she helps out her elderly husband at times. Well, he has a son who's an idiot according to the stories I hear. He went to see his pop on Christmas day. Ok, nothing unusual there, right? Now he failed to tell his pop of his slight fever, cough and body aches. He failed to say "hey pop, I think I have the flu" or anything of the sort. He failed to tell his pop "oh by the way because I was feeling so lousy yesterday I got tested for covid-19"……

Day after Christmas Mrs Fixer went by the widowers house to lend a hand and stayed several hours. See, the old dude had busted his hand and needed assistance with a bandage so Mrs Fixer patched him up (again). On Monday dude says "oh by the way my son's test came back positive"…… "what test?" "you mean your son came over sick and didn't tell you?" "and you are just now finding out he has covid-19?"……
"seriously?" 

Man, are you kidding me? Knucklehead went to see his dad on Christmas day knowing he had a fever. Pandemic aside, you just don't do that folks. Even if it was just a cold or flu you don't expose your elderly (and in this case,somewhat frail) parent(s). You just don't, man!

Mrs Fixers test came back negative thank goodness. But it's an example of how the human race does such a great job at spreading disease. We're still waiting on the test results for her friends widower (crossing fingers). Thusfar homie is symptom free. After nearly a week after potential exposure to him that's a good sign anyway. 

I'm leaving out the colorful language of how I feel about the deal. But we had to put our life on halt mode for a few days because moron-dude went to see his dad knowing he was sick.

I suppose you can't fix stupid.

Edit: the widowers test came back negative. Phew!
:thumbsup:
End edit.


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## markr6 (Dec 31, 2020)

Second wave...third. Not sure where we are. Could be an annual thing now; we'll see what the vaccine does. My 97 year old grandmother just beat it. Bunch of people at work had it and they're fine now. Others not so lucky, life's hard sometimes. You're out of a job...here's $600 though.

Over 100,000 businesses closed permanently trying to contain this thing. I hope it was worth it. Maybe more would have died keeping things open to those who chose to roll the dice but I'm not so sure. People like my parents who decided to isolate from the beginning for health reasons would have stayed home regardless of the mandates, laws, sexy news headlines, etc. They're fine. Maybe I had it at some point without symptoms, so I kept my distance.


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## idleprocess (Dec 31, 2020)

markr6 said:


> People like my parents who decided to isolate from the beginning for health reasons would have stayed home regardless of the mandates, laws, sexy news headlines, etc. They're fine. Maybe I had it at some point without symptoms, so I kept my distance.



My folks opted to self-isolate in _February_ and more or less haven't left the house save for essentials since then. I visited them once in September. Declined to visit for Thanksgiving and Christmas because infection rates were spiking, my SO is a high school teacher thus at significant risk, and they're in their 70s. Glad I skipped Christmas - my SO is awaiting COVID test results after being informed they'd been in close proximity to someone who tested positive shortly before I would have left to see the folks.


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## bykfixer (Dec 31, 2020)

Good post markr6. :candle:


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## Hooked on Fenix (Dec 31, 2020)

The mutated strain of the virus from Europe has made it's way to San Diego county in California. The Major issued an executive order funding enforcement of the governor's executive order (who has an injunction against him banning him from issuing these executive orders without the legislature's consent). So now we have executive order on top of executive order banned by a judge's injunction telling businesses near bankruptcy that they can't make money. Everyone is already fed up with these lockdowns and many can't survive much longer financially. At this time, we have nearly 4,000 deaths a day countrywide. I fear the push back from people fed up with these lockdowns may start causing cases to spike and more to die. I'm no fan of these illegal lockdowns myself, but I will take them as a suggestion to do things in a safe way that won't get me or others sick. Others may take it as a challenge to go out and do something stupid. Please stay safe during this holiday season and pray for a quick end to this virus and a return to normalcy.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 31, 2020)

markr6 said:


> Over 100,000 businesses closed permanently trying to contain this thing. I hope it was worth it. Maybe more would have died keeping things open to those who chose to roll the dice but I'm not so sure.


I've said it before, I'll say it again. I doesn't much matter whether or not government mandated for businesses to be closed since the hard fact is those businesses wouldn't get very many customers once the pandemic hit hard. Fear is keeping people from going out and patronizing businesses. End result is most of those 100,000 would have closed regardless. You also have the fact brick-and-mortar stores were already in trouble pre-pandemic. The pandemic probably just accelerated things by a few years.

If we don't get enough people vaccinated masks in public places might end up being a permanent thing. Honestly, given that they would greatly reduce flus and colds, I'm seeing nothing wrong with mandating them permanently in all venues where people gather, at least until we have other means to continuously disinfect public places, like UV-C lights. Even pre-covid, infectious diseases enact a huge toll on society. It's time we tried more preventative measures.


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## scout24 (Dec 31, 2020)

We live in the same region of the country and we apparently see a very different scenery re: retail businesses and eating edtablishments closing at an accelerated rate due to lockdowns. You're entitled to your opinion, but I heartily disagree.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 31, 2020)

scout24 said:


> We live in the same region of the country and we apparently see a very different scenery re: retail businesses and eating edtablishments closing at an accelerated rate due to lockdowns. You're entitled to your opinion, but I heartily disagree.


They're closing due to lack of customers. That would have happened regardless of lock downs. I don't see that indoor restaurants would be full of diners even if the government had no restrictions. Fact is in NYC especially with high rents a lot of businesses were marginal even when they were packed with customers. The pandemic would have sent these businesses past the tipping point irrespective of lock downs. Also, lock downs are only half the equation. Government needs to support the workers whose income is lost during lock downs but it failed to do so.

Finally, the need for a lock down is itself an end result of failure. In other countries where people took measures to control the disease seriously, they were able to use contact tracing and testing to contain any outbreaks with very localized lock downs. Most things could remain open, albeit with precautionary measures in place. A widespread lock down only becomes necessary when case numbers are so high that contact tracing is no longer possible. To me it seems like people are complaining about all the restrictions this pandemic has placed on their lives while doing exactly the opposite of what they should do to end it as quickly as possible so most restrictions can be lifted. Even the Thanksgiving surge apparently didn't stop people from traveling or getting together. I share the sense of frustration public health officials are feeling.


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## bykfixer (Dec 31, 2020)

I can see chains that were already on life support like JC Penney ending up on the covid casualty list. 
Gynasiums and bars got hurt pretty bad but some places thrived. A local steak joint and a pizza joint bring food to your car or for a small fee deliver. A mexican joint located in a former pizza hut building added a drive through and that paid off big time. Yet one high end steak joint that's been around for 75 years is gone. Same with a couple of Italian and barbecue joints. 

But government picking winners and losers aint helping the little guy. Not at all. The service industry in general has been greatly harmed by knucklehead restrictions. Put your mask back on while chewing? OSHA violations for allowing a patron to enter without a mask? No outside dining? This store has to close but that one across the street gets to stay open? 

Let's face it, all those protests across America all summer didn't help either.


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## scout24 (Dec 31, 2020)

jtr1962 said:


> They're closing due to lack of customers. That would have happened regardless of lock downs. I don't see that indoor restaurants would be full of diners even if the government had no restrictions. Fact is in NYC especially with high rents a lot of businesses were marginal even when they were packed with customers. The pandemic would have sent these businesses past the tipping point irrespective of lock downs. Also, lock downs are only half the equation. Government needs to support the workers whose income is lost during lock downs but it failed to do so.
> 
> Finally, the need for a lock down is itself an end result of failure. In other countries where people took measures to control the disease seriously, they were able to use contact tracing and testing to contain any outbreaks with very localized lock downs. Most things could remain open, albeit with precautionary measures in place. A widespread lock down only becomes necessary when case numbers are so high that contact tracing is no longer possible. To me it seems like people are complaining about all the restrictions this pandemic has placed on their lives while doing exactly the opposite of what they should do to end it as quickly as possible so most restrictions can be lifted. Even the Thanksgiving surge apparently didn't stop people from traveling or getting together. I share the sense of frustration public health officials are feeling.



Your lack of customers is because half of them are here in my neck of the woods causing traffic, lines, and anxiety wherever they go. You can have them back if you'd like.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 31, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> I can see chains that were already on life support like JC Penney ending up on the covid casualty list.
> Gynasiums and bars got hurt pretty bad but some places thrived. A local steak joint and a pizza joint bring food to your car or for a small fee deliver. A mexican joint located in a former pizza hut building added a drive through and that paid off big time. I know a couple of hair stylists who make house calls now. Same with some animal groomers. We have a lady trim the dogs toenails and clip the birds wings without having to leave home. She gets paid, and the animals aren't stressed. Win-win.


Yes, those businesses which were able and willing to adapt have come out of this OK. I think restaurants and bars doing delivery only is a great lifeline. They may not have the volume they did before, but on the flip side their expenses for staff like waiters might be less.

Since you mentioned JC Penney, they and similar businesses were probably going to fail soon anyway. The pandemic simply accelerated many inevitable business closures. Amazon et al have really decimated brick and mortar stores but in the end that's what the public votes for with their dollars. Also, crises invariably create opportunity. There's going to be huge demand going forwards for ways to disinfect public places so if this happens again the economic impact is less. There will undoubtedly be huge demand for programmers and engineers to design better remote working and schooling software/interfaces as well. Remote work finally caught on. That alone is going to give many employees hours of their lives back each week. The money they formerly spent to commute will be spent elsewhere, creating future business opportunities for people.




> But government picking winners and losers aint helping the little guy. Not at all. The service industry in general has been greatly harmed by knucklehead restrictions. Put your mask back on while chewing? OSHA violations for allowing a patron to enter without a mask? No outside dining? This store has to close but that one across the street gets to stay open?


Are they really picking winners and losers or simply closing businesses which by their nature can't remain open safely? Think about gyms, for example. It's impossible to work out with a mask on. They're indoors. People breathing at high rates indoors is a perfect way to spread covid. Indoor dining? Similar reasons. You can't eat with a mask on. Eating and talking spreads the virus. Outdoor dining is a good halfway house but take-out only is even better.



> Let's face it, all those protests across America all summer didn't help either.



I was worried about those for a time also but fortunately it turned out that they didn't cause a surge. Maybe the fact it was summer and most protesters were wearing masks helped. Still, it sent a mixed message allowing them while telling people they couldn't gather in other ways.

In retrospect, now that we know we make vaccines in under year, and perhaps when the next one hits we can make them in only a few months, it may make more sense the next time around to just shut down everything nonessential until a vaccine comes along. We couldn't do that this time around because it wasn't a given if or when we would have effective vaccines. Now we know accelerated time lines are feasible. I don't know if it's possible but if we can have vaccines within a few weeks after a pandemic starts in the future then we can get through with minimal disruption.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 31, 2020)

scout24 said:


> Your lack of customers is because half of them are here in my neck of the woods causing traffic, lines, and anxiety wherever they go. You can have them back if you'd like.


No, you can keep them. If they didn't ride this out in the city they weren't true NYers anyway.


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## bykfixer (Dec 31, 2020)

I edited my post jt, because I just wanted to go a different way, but I understand what you are saying. 
Attrition was accelarated, yes. But government intrusion also plays a role.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 31, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> I edited my post jt, because I just wanted to go a different way, but I understand what you are saying.
> Attrition was accelarated, yes. But government intrusion also plays a role.


I edited my post to respond to your edits. I don't disagree entirely about government intrusion in that it was sometimes inconsistent and/or heavy-handed. At the same time however we just couldn't let this spread. I'd say if we did, we would have had 5 to 10 million deaths in the US alone, probably several hundred million worldwide. And so many people sick at one time that it would have seriously disrupted supply lines. For better or for worse, some government invention was needed. I hope we do better next time, although I hope the next time isn't for many decades.


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## bykfixer (Dec 31, 2020)

I think covid 19 accelarated the attrltion rate of American's too. My pop for example was being kept alive with pills and perished due to complications from a head cold. In 2020 if he had covid 19 he would have died and instead of being listed as his bad heart finally stopping he'd be a covid 19 statistic. Combine that with a huge segment of the population being obese, diabetic, weakened from chronic bad lifestyle and so on. 

If you look at the big picture you'd see just how many people in America depend on products provided by big pharma. Some 16 million Americans take thyroid medicine. Millions take stroke and heart attack reducing blood pressure medicines and so forth. Point being those folks have potential to be wiped out by a virus like the swine flu but way more people who get or got covid do just fine. It's part of the reason so many aren't cautious. 

My 94 year old neighbor takes 0 pills. Other than just being old she's in better health than the 42 year old fat guy across the street from her. Now if the fat guy finally had a stroke from not taking his meds but had covid 19 when he did have the stroke he'd be a covid 19 death. Meanwhile less than 1% who get covid 19 die.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 31, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> I think covid 19 accelarated the attrltion rate of American's too. My pop for example was being kept alive with pills and perished due to complications from a head cold. In 2020 if he had covid 19 he would have died and instead of being listed as his bad heart finally stopping he'd be a covid 19 statistic. Combine that with a huge segment of the population being obese, diabetic, weakened from chronic bad lifestyle and so on.
> 
> If you look at the big picture you'd see just how many people in America depend on products provided by big pharma. Some 16 million Americans take thyroid medicine. Millions take stroke and heart attack reducing blood pressure medicines and so forth. Point being those folks have potential to be wiped out by a virus like the swine flu but way more people who get or got covid do just fine. It's part of the reason so many aren't cautious.
> 
> My 94 year old neighbor takes 0 pills. Other than just being old she's in better health than the 42 year old fat guy across the street from her. Now if the fat guy finally had a stroke from not taking his meds but had covid 19 when he did have the stroke he'd be a covid 19 death. Meanwhile less than 1% who get covid 19 die.


Don't get me started on pills. My mom is only on two pills at nearly age 82. One is 2.5mg Norvasc for her blood pressure. The other is Aricept which might be helping her dementia. She could get off the Aricept completely with no physical health effects. Given her checkups, she might not even need the Norvasc. I'm not on anything. Haven't been to a doctor since I started college on account of not having health insurance but seeing that doctors are prone to over prescribe pills maybe I'm better for it. I react badly to just about any medication anyway. When I took sodium naproxen in the fall of 2019 it may have caused a whole host of other problems which got me really sick for a few weeks, followed by a recovery lasting a few months. When I take Amoxicillin after things like a root canal I'm in bed 18 hours a day from exhaustion. So taking pills really isn't an option. My mom reacts horribly to most pills. One time her doctor pushed Boniva on her for no real reason. She ended up in a bad way after taking only a few pills. I read the side effects and told her to just stop. But yes, being on pills is a huge problem in this country, particularly when in many cases a lifestyle change will produce the same or better results. I guess people would rather eat fatty food and take Lipitor than eat better.

The problem though is while covid statistically affects people much more likely to die to start with, a fair number of people with no underlying conditions also die from it. And there's no way to predict if you'll be one of those unlucky people. That's why I err on the side of caution. As for death rate, that ~1% assumes treatment. When hospitals get overwhelmed and we go into triage mode the death rate is probably north of 5%. The worst seasonal flu is something like 0.1%, except of course the rare pandemic flus like those of 1918. I guess I don't understand people who take this lightly because I'm an engineer. If there's a way to avoid a problem by doing certain things, then you do those things. Here you can avoid dying a premature death by not going out unless you really must, and wearing a mask, keeping away from people if you do. Not really terribly difficult from my standpoint but I guess for people in such poor health that they'll probably be dead soon anyway they just don't care.


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## idleprocess (Dec 31, 2020)

scout24 said:


> We live in the same region of the country and we apparently see a very different scenery re: retail businesses and eating edtablishments closing at an accelerated rate due to lockdowns. You're entitled to your opinion, but I heartily disagree.



Dallas/Fort Worth is practically a _city of restaurants_, arguably with more eateries per capita than any other metro so we see a decent rate of closures even during normal times; the closure rate during the pandemic has been pretty fierce. Retail occupancy rate has also dropped noticeably.

Locales an hour or more away from the city that managed a lower infection rate that didn't institute lockdowns whose local economies saw less disruption may well be wondering what the commotion is all about.



jtr1962 said:


> No, you can keep them. If they didn't ride this out in the city they weren't true NYers anyway.



Looking at the astronomical cost of living in the area, _true NYers_ must either be millionaires, bought decades ago riding the real estate super-inflation wave with aplomb since their notes are _effectively_ from decades ago even if they've cashed in equity along the way, are the beneficiaries of difficult-to-reproduce circumstance, or are willing to live far poorer than people in other less-expensive regions.

Expect there to be fewer _true NYers_ as employers start to realize WFH means employees can be almost anywhere with decent internet and reasonable access to an airport.



jtr1962 said:


> I edited my post to respond to your edits. I don't disagree entirely about government intrusion in that it was sometimes inconsistent and/or heavy-handed. At the same time however we just couldn't let this spread. I'd say if we did, we would have had 5 to 10 million deaths in the US alone, probably several hundred million worldwide. And so many people sick at one time that it would have seriously disrupted supply lines. For better or for worse, some government invention was needed. I hope we do better next time, although I hope the next time isn't for many decades.



It is bitterly ironic that the success of lockdowns is the some of most powerful rhetoric used against them:
_"Look at those egghead 'experts' who said millions would die when it was *mere hundreds of thousands!* They got it wrong! Look at the economic damage they caused!"_

Of course, alongside the prospect of the initially-projected death toll being an order of magnitude greater, the economic losses would have also scaled to _at least_ a commensurate degree.


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## nbp (Dec 31, 2020)

I know different outlets might count differently so maybe you guys who are avid stats consumers can answer this question for me. When people report the death rate of C19 are they using the Case Fatality Rate or the Infection Fatality Rate? Since some reports say that actual infections might be eight times or so the confirmed cases, dividing # of deaths by that number rather than just confirmed positive cases would reduce the death rate vastly. Which one are we getting? 

Some reading on these rates and the difficulty of calulating them that I was looking at. 

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19


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## jtr1962 (Dec 31, 2020)

idleprocess said:


> Looking at the astronomical cost of living in the area, _true NYers_ must either be millionaires, bought decades ago riding the real estate super-inflation wave with aplomb since their notes are _effectively_ from decades ago even if they've cashed in equity along the way, are the beneficiaries of difficult-to-reproduce circumstance, or are willing to live far poorer than people in other less-expensive regions.


Housing is the biggie here. Food and other things generally don't cost more than anywhere else, especially if you buy sales items. Also, factor in that you don't need to own a car in many cases. I never had a car, or even a driver's license. Over my working life that easily saved me a few hundred thousand.

And yes, we were one of the few who bought before prices went crazy. My parents bought the house in 1978 at $52K. It was paid for in 2003 and we never borrowed against the equity. If the price had risen with inflation it might be around $225K now. Last I checked it was north of $800K but the NY real estate market will get a huge correction as people who can work remotely leave. That in turn will eventually attract people who otherwise couldn't afford to live here. But bottom line is living in a paid for house in NYC is actually pretty cheap, certainly a lot less pricey than renting an apartment.



> It is bitterly ironic that the success of lockdowns is the some of most powerful rhetoric used against them:
> _"Look at those egghead 'experts' who said millions would die when it was *mere hundreds of thousands!* They got it wrong! Look at the economic damage they caused!"_
> 
> Of course, alongside the prospect of the initially-projected death toll being an order of magnitude greater, the economic losses would have also scaled to _at least_ a commensurate degree.


I say the same thing. Think about the _long-term_ economic impact of the US having 5 to 10 million less people. It would easily exceed whatever the costs of the lock downs were. Not to mention the many millions more who would be permanently disabled by covid and unable to be productive members of society. I just wish we would have done as well as most Asian countries so the deaths would have only been several thousand, not several hundred thousand.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 31, 2020)

nbp said:


> I know different outlets might count differently so maybe you guys who are avid stats consumers can answer this question for me. When people report the death rate of C19 are they using the Case Fatality Rate or the Infection Fatality Rate? Since some reports say that actual infections might be eight times or so the confirmed cases, dividing # of deaths by that number rather than just confirmed positive cases would reduce the death rate vastly. Which one are we getting?
> 
> Some reading on these rates and the difficulty of calulating them that I was looking at.
> 
> https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19


I'm using the infection fatality rate. For example:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Going by NYC data and estimates of the total number of infections, the infection mortality rate is 1.4%. That doubtless has since come down with better treatments.

I'm basing my 5% infection mortality rate _without treatment_ on the following:

1) About 20% of covid-19 patients require hospitalization.
2) In NYC in March and April when we really didn't know how to treat this, and were basically doing triage, about 25% of those requiring hospitalization died. So 0.25 x 0.2 = 0.05 = 5%


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## Hooked on Fenix (Dec 31, 2020)

jtr1962 said:


> So taking pills really isn't an option. My mom reacts horribly to most pills. One time her doctor pushed Boniva on her for no real reason. She ended up in a bad way after taking only a few pills. I read the side effects and told her to just stop. But yes, being on pills is a huge problem in this country, particularly when in many cases a lifestyle change will produce the same or better results. I guess people would rather eat fatty food and take Lipitor than eat better.



Never take cholesterol lowering drugs like lipitor. Cholesterol is not bad for you. Your body needs it to heal and function. High ldl cholesterol isn't a condition, it's a red flag that something's wrong with you. When you have damaged or inflamed arteries, your body sends ldl cholesterol to plug the leaks to help your body heal. Hdl cholesterol is then sent to sweep away the ldl cholesterol. When you have a chronic condition, you don't have enough hdl cholesterol to get rid of the ldl cholesterol so the ldl cholesterol keeps building up and blocks the arteries. If you take lipitor, you lower the cholesterol which can help unclog your arteries, but you also rip the bandaid off the wound in your damaged artery. Cholesterol also makes all your adrenal hormones. It makes pregnenolone (protects the brain), aldosterone (makes the kidneys function), cortisol (for stress response), DHEA (helps metabolism and waste processing), progesterone, testosterone, and estrogen (sex hormones). If you chose to take lipitor and keep making poor food choices instead of eating right and exercising, don't be surprised if you end up with Alzheimer's, kidney stones, have anxiety, having diabetes, and have sexual problems.


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## bykfixer (Dec 31, 2020)

Well my tv says I can eat cake all day sitting by the pool, take a pill and my hair will regrow, my belly fat will melt away, have the libido of a 22 year old, and I won't even need a job to pay for it.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 31, 2020)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Never take cholesterol lowering drugs like lipitor. Cholesterol is not bad for you. Your body needs it to heal and function. High ldl cholesterol isn't a condition, it's a red flag that something's wrong with you. When you have damaged or inflamed arteries, your body sends ldl cholesterol to plug the leaks to help your body heal. Hdl cholesterol is then sent to sweep away the ldl cholesterol. When you have a chronic condition, you don't have enough hdl cholesterol to get rid of the ldl cholesterol so the ldl cholesterol keeps building up and blocks the arteries. If you take lipitor, you lower the cholesterol which can help unclog your arteries, but you also rip the bandaid off the wound in your damaged artery. Cholesterol also makes all your adrenal hormones. It makes pregnenolone (protects the brain), aldosterone (makes the kidneys function), cortisol (for stress response), DHEA (helps metabolism and waste processing), progesterone, testosterone, and estrogen (sex hormones). If you chose to take lipitor and keep making poor food choices instead of eating right and exercising, don't be surprised if you end up with Alzheimer's, kidney stones, have anxiety, having diabetes, and have sexual problems.


My father was on it and needless to say he's not around any longer. He had all the known side effects from it as well. I wouldn't take Lipitor if someone paid me to do so. I know those types of drugs are bad news. I never cared for fatty foods anyway, so avoiding them isn't a big deal for me.


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## jtr1962 (Dec 31, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> Well my tv says I can eat cake all day sitting by the pool, take a pill and my hair will regrow, my belly fat will melt away, have the libido of a 22 year old, and I won't even need a job to pay for it.


I really, really wish they would make all those stupid TV prescription drug ads illegal. Besides being annoying, I don't see what purpose is served telling laypeople about drugs they need a doctor to prescribe. If they need it, their doctor will know and prescribe it for them. There's no need to them "ask their doctor about it" as all these commercials suggest. If they can't ban the ads, instead I'd love for a law to be passed allowing doctors to bill the drug companies for the time they waste talking to patients who ask about some drug they saw an ad for. That would get the drug companies to voluntarily stop the ads, or face massive payouts to physicians.


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## nbp (Dec 31, 2020)

Drifting off topic here a bit - prescription drugs could be a thread unto itself I imagine.


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## bykfixer (Dec 31, 2020)

If not for big pharma and big pharmacies we wouldn't be looking at two vaccines for covid-19 with a third one around the corner being dustributed by the millions already. 
It seems the UK is on the verge of having yet another vaccine making it the fourth one. 

Now I can't wait to read the fine print. "may cause drowiness, pain at the injection site, fever and in rare cases rash on the tongue, liver failure, heart failure, painful erection lasting for hours. If you notice these rare reactions speak to your doctor"……

Happy New Year


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## Dave_5280 (Dec 31, 2020)

If you want a chance to get the vaccine early, search for a phase 3 trial of a vaccine near you and try to enter if you can, and they may even pay you to do it. I got in the Johnson and Johnson phase 3 trial and got the shot the end of November. I reacted to the shot so I know it wasn’t the placebo, and I had pain at the injection site, was tired for a few day, and had some nerve pains mostly in my legs, but overall it hasn’t been that bad. Still having some nerve sensation mostly at night, but again not that bad. 

To start the process I had to answer questions online, then it told me I qualified and gave me an address where it would be done and that they would call me - but I called them and made an appointment. The first appointment was 3 to 4 hours, with lots of questions and explanations and forms, blood draw and nasal swab but the swab was shallow and not the deep painful one I’ve heard about. Then they gave me a shot of vaccine or placebo and made me wait 15 minutes to be sure I was ok to drive home.

They also gave me an app on my iPhone that I check in on Mondays and Thursdays to answer a question if I have had any Covid symptoms- if you answer no, that is all you enter so it is quick, if you answer yes then there are more questions and you start using the self testing equipment they give you - thermometer, pulse ox reader, and nasal swab test kits which they pick up at your home to analyze.

30 days latter I had my second appointment and they asked me a few questions and took a blood draw. It took about an hour. And they told me that I didn’t have antibodies in my blood they took during my first appointment- which if I did you wouldn’t think they would want me in the trial.

They say that 99% of those that get the vaccine have antibodies after 29 days. They were planning on enrolling 60,00o people from different countries but reduced that to 40,000 because there’s so much virus circulation that they will get the exposures they need with 40,000 people. But they started a second trial to learn if the results will be better with two shots 30 days apart (my trial is one shot). I’ve got friends in both trials.

It has been a good experience for me and it is reassuring to know I probably have been vaccinated. I’m still careful and wear the mask and take the same precautions.

you can search at: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02194699

You can sign up for Johnson & Johnson trials at:
https://www.ensemblestudy.com//?utm...Uer4EaQIQSLxS5ck4iw01y5tDrh2xoCenwQAvD_BwE#!/


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## turbodog (Jan 1, 2021)

Dave_5280 said:


> If you want a chance to get the vaccine early, search for a phase 3 trial of a vaccine near you and try to enter if you can, and they may even pay you to do it. I got in the Johnson and Johnson phase 3 trial and got the shot the end of November. I reacted to the shot so I know it wasn’t the placebo, and I had pain at the injection site...



Super sneaky if they add something to the placebo to mimic those effects.


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## turbodog (Jan 1, 2021)

nbp said:


> I know different outlets might count differently so maybe you guys who are avid stats consumers can answer this question for me. When people report the death rate of C19 are they using the Case Fatality Rate or the Infection Fatality Rate? Since some reports say that actual infections might be eight times or so the confirmed cases, dividing # of deaths by that number rather than just confirmed positive cases would reduce the death rate vastly. Which one are we getting?
> 
> Some reading on these rates and the difficulty of calulating them that I was looking at.
> 
> https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19



I mix up the names, but we won't know the 'other' rate till it's over. We only have the 'right now' rate.


----------



## Dave_5280 (Jan 1, 2021)

*Covid Vaccine*

If you want a chance to get the vaccine early, search for a phase 3 trial of a vaccine near you and try to enter if you can, and they may even pay you to do it. I got in the Johnson and Johnson phase 3 trial and got the shot the end of November. I reacted to the shot so I know it wasn’t the placebo, and I had pain at the injection site, was tired for a few day, and had some nerve pains mostly in my legs, but overall it hasn’t been that bad. Still having some nerve sensation mostly at night, but again not that bad. 

To start the process I had to answer questions online, then it told me I qualified and gave me an address where it would be done and that they would call me - but I called them and made an appointment. The first appointment was 3 to 4 hours, with lots of questions and explanations and forms, blood draw and nasal swab but the swab was shallow and not the deep painful one I’ve heard about. Then they gave me a shot of vaccine or placebo and made me wait 15 minutes to be sure I was ok to drive home.

They also gave me an app on my iPhone that I check in on Mondays and Thursdays to answer a question if I have had any Covid symptoms- if you answer no, that is all you enter so it is quick, if you answer yes then there are more questions and you start using the self testing equipment they give you - thermometer, pulse ox reader, and nasal swab test kits which they pick up at your home to analyze.

30 days latter I had my second appointment and they asked me a few questions and took a blood draw. It took about an hour. And they told me that I didn’t have antibodies in my blood they took during my first appointment- which if I did you wouldn’t think they would want me in the trial.

They say that 99% of those that get the vaccine have antibodies after 29 days. They were planning on enrolling 60,00o people from different countries but reduced that to 40,000 because there’s so much virus circulation that they will get the exposures they need with 40,000 people. But they started a second trial to learn if the results will be better with two shots 30 days apart (my trial is one shot). I’ve got friends in both trials.

It has been a good experience for me and it is reassuring to know I probably have been vaccinated. I’m still careful and wear the mask and take the same precautions.

you can search at: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02194699

You can sign up for Johnson & Johnson trials at:
https://www.ensemblestudy.com//?utm_...enwQAvD_BwE#!/


----------



## raggie33 (Jan 1, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

im so old im waiting to the more valuble humans get it. ill be 50 this year


----------



## seery (Jan 1, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

I’ll pass.


----------



## pilo7448 (Jan 1, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

I'll wait... Just like I never buy the 1st gen of anything, but thanks for testing it out for us. 

Sent from my SM-N976U using Tapatalk


----------



## id30209 (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

S€&€w it!


Sent from Tapatalk


----------



## mickb (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

Id like proper trials first. Though in international work, we may not have a choice to refuse.


----------



## bigburly912 (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

My wife got the first round of the Pfizer vaccine. No extra appendages have grown yet. She’s almost ready for the second part of it. Will report back then


----------



## Truckvet (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

There are plenty of people out there who don't want anything to do with this Vaccine.
Personally I will get it once most who want it have it. All I ask is they make it as easy
to get as a flu shot. 

My point being, if you want it, don't complain about how hard it is just to get it,
just get it in a few weeks. If you don't want it, don't get it. I really doubt the Government
will make you get it.

I work for a large Farm that was hit by the Virus hard in the Fall.
The Father got it, had almost no symptoms, 75 years old with a worn out
hip that needs replaced. 

His son got it, was home sick for 2 weeks, 52 years old with bad lungs but
got well on his own and lost over 10 lbs, changing him from Obese to normal.

Grandson with Asthma got it, had almost no symptoms, he is about 30 and weighs 
320 lbs. 5 other farms workers got it ranging from 20 to 65 years old, no one was hospitalized
and no one is in a hurry to get this shot. All three people tested positive for the Virus.

This Vaccine is a great thing, we are on our way out of this mess.


----------



## Dave_5280 (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

Good site for current statistics on Covid below. Currently: 1.8 Million dead worldwide and 84 million cases. World population is 7.7 Billion.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html


----------



## Dave_5280 (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

[FONT=&quot]Good article [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]How the Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Works[/FONT]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/20 ... ccine.html


----------



## turbodog (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



Truckvet said:


> There are plenty of people out there who don't want anything to do with this Vaccine.
> Personally I will get it once most who want it have it. All I ask is they make it as easy
> to get as a flu shot.
> 
> ...



Glad they are made it through ok, but we are not anywhere on 'the way out'. Things are about to get much worse.


----------



## Truckvet (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



turbodog said:


> Glad they are made it through ok, but we are not anywhere on 'the way out'. Things are about to get much worse.



Yes things may get a bit worse in Jan- Feb. But by March many people will
have been Vaccinated. Many others have already proven to be almost immune
to the Virus. Others have had the Virus, and believe they can beat it a second
time.

We have already had the first wave of the Virus, and many of the weakest among
us have already been hit by this virus.

They lied about how many in China were hit by this Virus on the first wave.

The Media wants us to be locked down until at least the end of January.
Once the election is settled completely if Biden is in office it will be amazing
how the media will be ready for all surviving businesses to completely open.

Of course this is all conjecture at this point.

Almost half of all Americans have type O blood which means they are 
less likely to be hit hard by this Virus. As these people continue to 
get the virus and fight it off with less problems than the common flue
these people will feel better about being in public and things will get
better for them.

Everyone else needs to get the vaccine or develop immunity the hard way.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



Truckvet said:


> Yes things may get a bit worse in Jan- Feb. But by March many people will
> have been Vaccinated. Many others have already proven to be almost immune
> to the Virus. Others have had the Virus, and believe they can beat it a second
> time.


More than a bit worse. As hospitals start to get overwhelmed, look for 10K to 20K daily deaths.



> The Media wants us to be locked down until at least the end of January.



Epidemiologists want us to be locked down. The media has nothing to do with anything other than repeating what the experts are saying. Businesses aren't going to magically open at the end of January, either. That's when we'll probably hit at least 5K daily deaths.



> Almost half of all Americans have type O blood which means they are
> less likely to be hit hard by this Virus. As these people continue to
> get the virus and fight it off with less problems than the common flue
> these people will feel better about being in public and things will get
> better for them.



Type O gives you some advantage but people with type O still can very sick from this and die. It's not like the common flu, either. The worst seasonal flus have an infection mortality rate of 0.1%. Untreated covid-19 has an infection mortality rate of upwards of 5%. We can get this down to 1% of so with treatment, but that assumes hospitals aren't doing triage.

The vaccine will eventually get us out of this but at current rates of vaccination it's going to take _10 years_ to hit herd immunity.


----------



## nbp (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

We already have a long running COVID19 thread. If this is going to become a catch all topic then it will be merged into that one in short order. If this topic must have its own thread, Perhaps keep this one to the science, distribution, efficacy etc. of the vaccines and leave the other thread for all other COVID discussion. Thank you.


----------



## bykfixer (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

I'll take the shot, sure. 
Am I going to jump up and down raising my hand shouting "pick me, pick me"?……
Nah. I can wait. There's a lot of people who are in more danger each day than I am. Fire fighters, police, prison guards, check out lady at the grocery store etc. 

One nurse I spoke with at a hospital recently told me when they offered her one she said "give it to that orderly who delivers meals to rooms in ICU please". She pointed to a man walking past pushing a cleaning cart and said "he needs it more than I do because he cleans up ICU rooms".


----------



## jabe1 (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

Vaccine procurement and distribution has, so far been a joke. The states and counties don’t have the resources to do this alone, and the federal government has decided that their job stops at giving it to them. Then, congress has suddenly decided that they are spending averse, now that the election is over. The states can’t afford to hire those needed, or train volunteers, let alone procure all of the necessary items they need.
I have a brother in law who is a county health director; what he sees is that politics is more important to them than this being a public health emergency.

Ill get the vaccine as soon as I can. I work in peoples homes, have co-morbidities and my father is 88 and undergoing chemotherapy.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



bykfixer said:


> I'll take the shot, sure.
> Am I going to jump up and down raising my hand shouting "pick me, pick me"?……
> Nah. I can wait. There's a lot of people who are in more danger each day than I am. Fire fighters, police, prison guards, check out lady at the grocery store etc.


Same here. As much as I would like to get this yesterday there are other people who need it far more than me. Hopefully in a month or so they'll get around to people my mother's age. Maybe then I'll be able to get it as her caretaker.

Any preferences on which vaccine, assuming you have a choice? I'd prefer either two-dose vaccine given that the efficacy levels are around 95%, versus something like 70% or less for the one-dose vaccine.


----------



## Truckvet (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



jtr1962 said:


> Same here. As much as I would like to get this yesterday there are other people who need it far more than me. Hopefully in a month or so they'll get around to people my mother's age. Maybe then I'll be able to get it as her caretaker.
> 
> Any preferences on which vaccine, assuming you have a choice? I'd prefer either two-dose vaccine given that the efficacy levels are around 95%, versus something like 70% or less for the one-dose vaccine.



Because I have already had the virus, then was exposed to it several months later,
I would rather have a one dose vaccine.

But many people have decided not to take the vaccine for several reasons.

The Spanish Flu lasted 2 years or so and had no vaccine so in my opinion anyone
who thinks this thing will last a decade may need therapy.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



Truckvet said:


> The Spanish Flu lasted 2 years or so and had no vaccine so in my opinion anyone
> who thinks this thing will last a decade may need therapy.


The theory is the Spanish Flu pandemic ended for three reasons:

1) The virus mutated into a less lethal form which displaced the more lethal strain. Flu viruses mutate much more rapidly than coronaviruses. The first wave of the Spanish flu wasn't particularly lethal, but it mutated into the much more lethal version which constituted the second wave.

2) A lot more people were exposed than have been to covid. That helped herd immunity. An estimated one third of the world's population got it. At least 50 million died from it. To put those numbers into perspective this was about 3% of the world's population at the time. If covid-19 killed the same numbers now we would be looking at a quarter billion deaths.

3) Being exposed to a particular strain of flu confers lifetime immunity to that strain. The 1918 flu didn't seriously affect people over 60 who had been exposed to similar strains of swine flu early in their lives. We don't know whether or not that's the case with covid-19. If immunity only lasts months, then without enough vaccinations this could be an annual thing forever.

As for lasting a decade, I'm basing that on current rates of vaccination. Hopefully we'll ramp that up to at least 1 million per day and reach herd immunity by mid-year. I sure we're going to increase the rate of vaccinations dramatically so it doesn't last ten years. The economy can't afford it at this point.


----------



## idleprocess (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



bykfixer said:


> I'll take the shot, sure.
> Am I going to jump up and down raising my hand shouting "pick me, pick me"?……
> Nah. I can wait. There's a lot of people who are in more danger each day than I am. Fire fighters, police, prison guards, check out lady at the grocery store etc.



Same, only I should _really_ be back of the line - I can work from home indefinitely. SO works in a high school so will be well ahead of me in the proverbial line.

By the time the SO might get the vaccine there will be more information about how the vaccine works and its short-term efficacy.


----------



## Truckvet (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

I am happy we all now agree that the Vaccinations will make this virus fade away in less 
than a decade.

People who think the Vaccinations are taking too long are missing the big picture. Many people
out there don't trust this vaccine. There are rumors regarding what went into these vaccines that
make people not want to get them.

My point is, the vaccinations are going at a rapid enough pace. There are actually people who think
these shots will become mandatory.

*In Japan, more people died from suicide in October than from Covid in all of 2020. And women have been impacted most*


My point is that we should try to learn from History, take heart from how we have survived the Spanish and Hong Kong flues, and realize that the worst thing to happen from this Pandemic may not be the people who died from this Virus.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



Truckvet said:


> My point is, the vaccinations are going at a rapid enough pace. There are actually people who think
> these shots will become mandatory.


It's more a combination of logistical issues and lack of funding slowing down rates of vaccination but I expect that will change. We never attempted vaccinations on this scale in this time frame. There are bound to be hiccups.

No, I highly doubt government will mandate vaccinations but schools and work places surely will, if nothing else for liability reasons. A person won't be forced to get vaccinated, but if they choose not to they will have to home school their children and also work from home.



> *In Japan, more people died from suicide in October than from Covid in all of 2020. And women have been impacted most*


Keep in mind Japan's death rate from covid-19 is less than 1/30th that of the US. In the US covid-19 became the leading cause of death in 2020. Also, Japan traditionally has a high rate of suicides.



> My point is that we should try to learn from History, take heart from how we have survived the Spanish and Hong Kong flues, and realize that the worst thing to happen from this Pandemic may not be the people who died from this Virus.


Humanity has survived many pandemics but modern medicine and sanitary practices are what enable us to get through them now with much lower death rates. If we would have matched the death rate in 1918 we would have lost about 250 million people. Even with the recent surges, by the time we end this via vaccinations I'd say we'll lose well under 10 million people. That's a huge achievement, and even comparing the US to countries which did the best, there's a huge room for improvement when the next pandemic hits.


----------



## Poppy (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

Both CVS, and Walgreens are contracted by the Federal Gov't to vaccinate Covid-19.
Neither of their websites are currently scheduling people, but rather they make announcements that they are inoculating Long term facility patients and staff first.

Shop Rite (a large Super Market Chain, with Pharmacies) is doing online scheduling for Phase 1A recipients. The portal opened January 1, 2021, and I scheduled myself for January 22, 2021, the first available day.

I imagine that it will take a few weeks to get any chinks in the delivery, and inoculation worked out, but (hopefully ) after that it will be smooth sailing. Smooth sailing, regarding inoculating millions of people. Not smoothing sailing regarding the rate of infection and hospitalizations.


----------



## Poppy (Jan 2, 2021)

Looking at the numbers in NJ, new cases were dropping for a few days before and after Thanksgiving. They started going up and peaking about 10 days later. They started leveling off, and going down a little, but a week after Christmas, the numbers jumped again. Now we have to look forward to the New Years Jump. 

My 15 y/o grandkids, are stunned by the number of social media postings they see, from their friends, of groups of them, at various parties. They are stunned by their stupidity.

I am stunned by the parents stupidity.


----------



## LeanBurn (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

I have not had a flu vaccine previously as I have a very good immune system, eat well and exercise regularly. I get the sniffles maybe once a year for a day or so and rarely get sick from anything else (I have over 4 months of solid sick days banked to the envy of all my coworkers).

My question for this vaccine for this Wuhan flu variant....is not the vaccine calibrated to combat that flu that existed early on in the spread? Has not that flu mutated several times already so that the vaccine is no longer relevant, especially to the 'second wave' variant? I don't know much about these types of things but logically the question arises for me.


----------



## bigburly912 (Jan 2, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



LeanBurn said:


> I have not had a flu vaccine previously as I have a very good immune system, eat well and exercise regularly. I get the sniffles maybe once a year for a day or so and rarely get sick from anything else (I have over 4 months of solid sick days banked to the envy of all my coworkers).
> 
> My question for this vaccine for this Wuhan flu variant....is not the vaccine calibrated to combat that flu that existed early on in the spread? Has not that flu mutated several times already so that the vaccine is no longer relevant, especially to the 'second wave' variant? I don't know much about these types of things but logically the question arises for me.



The Pfizer vaccine actually attacks the RNA of the virus so it will be in theory successful against any mutations that occur. If the base of the virus stays the same (it will) then the Pfizer vaccine will stay successful. I’ve not looked at any of the others so I can’t comment on them.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



jtr1962 said:


> It's more a combination of logistical issues and lack of funding slowing down rates of vaccination but I expect that will change. ...



If the 3 tops guys in logistics from Amazon, UPS, and FedEx get together for lunch we could mark it as done in a week, and we'd all get Amazon Prime for free to boot!


----------



## turbodog (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



Truckvet said:


> ..
> Almost half of all Americans have type O blood which means they are
> less likely to be hit hard by this Virus. ...
> 
> Everyone else needs to get the vaccine or develop immunity the hard way.



USA type "O" prevalence is approx 43%, almost exactly the same as type "A" (42%).

Recovering from covid does NOT give you as much protection as an actual vaccine. The vaccines produce a much higher antibody response. So for those recovered... wait till the end, but still go get your dose as well.

Edit: fixed blood type percentages.


----------



## Truckvet (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



turbodog said:


> USA type "O" prevalence is approx 37%, almost exactly the same as type "A" (36%).
> 
> Recovering from covid does NOT give you as much protection as an actual vaccine. The vaccines produce a much higher antibody response. So for those recovered... wait till the end, but still go get your dose as well.




You must have looked up O Positive, which is about 37 percent. I am 0 negative, and if you add the 0 negatives total to 0 positives you get up into the 40s. My 75 year old boss who needs a new hip is also
0 negative and says he won't be in a hurry to get the vaccine because the common flu hits him harder
than when he tested positive for Covid. When I had it the worst part of it was my whistling lungs kept 
waking me up at night yet I recovered just fine with out a Doctor's help.

Sure there are people with 0 blood type who can die from this, but these same people are vulnerable
from the flu as well for various reasons. Once we get through this election the statistics can settle down to an honest 3 tenths of 1 percent mortality rate that it should have been.


There are people who think the US has a 5 percent Mortality rate but choose to ignore the details.
When New York had their first wave, they decided to put their Covid patients in their rest homes
thereby infecting their old people. This was the worst response they could have had, they would
have been better off putting them in the class rooms with their children. No that's not sarcasm.

Because of this, New York state's response was much worse than our national response to the Spanish Flu which was to almost ignore it.

One Reason I believe we won't get hit as hard this second wave is that States like New York will have this Vaccine and will use it instead of making this Pandemic worse than it needs to be.

As for the Statistics its been proven that many of them are wrong. China had a much higher rate than
was originally reported. Japan had a much higher Suicide rate due to lockdowns in October than they ever had in one regular month.


----------



## nbp (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*

Parallel thread merged into this one.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 3, 2021)

Truckvet said:


> You must have looked up O Positive, which is about 37 percent. I am 0 negative, and if you add the 0 negatives total to 0 positives you get up into the 40s. ...



Correct. I run monitors in portrait view which causes text wrapping sometimes. I missed the heading for pos and neg.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



Truckvet said:


> Once we get through this election the statistics can settle down to an honest 3 tenths of 1 percent mortality rate that it should have been.


It's actually settling closer to 0.65%, give or take.



> There are people who think the US has a 5 percent Mortality rate but choose to ignore the details.
> When New York had their first wave, they decided to put their Covid patients in their rest homes
> thereby infecting their old people. This was the worst response they could have had, they would
> have been better off putting them in the class rooms with their children. No that's not sarcasm.



Untreated the mortality rate is upwards of 5%, similar to that of the Spanish flu. Thankfully with treatments and supportive care we can get that well under 1%. Also, the average age of the population affects mortality rate. In Africa the mortality rate seems to be much lower because most of the population is under 30.

The whole thing about nursing homes in NY taking covid patients is a bit more nuanced:

https://khn.org/news/is-cuomo-direc...sing-home-covid-deaths-as-us-official-claims/

It's not entirely clear that Cuomo's policy led to more deaths in nursing homes given that deaths in nursing homes across the entire country were very high.


----------



## idleprocess (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



Truckvet said:


> from the flu as well for various reasons. Once we get through this election the statistics can settle down to an honest 3 tenths of 1 percent mortality rate that it should have been.



I live in Denton County TX. Let's take a look at the county's statistics:

26,622 recovered
218 dead

218 / (218 + 26,622) = 218 / 26,840 = 0.008122205663 = ~0.81%

I wish they had the data in table form - I recall early on the lethality rate was hovering around 5%. Treatment regimens have really come along since then. We _might_ achieve 0.3% by the time this is all done, but that assumes the denominator gets a heck of a lot larger.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



idleprocess said:


> I recall early on the lethality rate was hovering around 5%. Treatment regimens have really come along since then. We _might_ achieve 0.3% by the time this is all done, but that assumes the denominator gets a heck of a lot larger.


Same thing in NYC. I think we were actually doing worse than 10%, but testing was sparse then, so the denominator was a lot smaller than it would have been with more widespread testing.

Since this is CPF, I might as well mention something I thought of when this first started and mentioned it to my brother. I thought it might be possible to treat this (and other types of viral pneumonia) by introducing a powerful UV-C light source into the lungs. In theory the UV-C source wouldn't damage health lung tissue. It would just kill off the viral infection. Of course, lots of practical issues with this but does anyone know if it was studied? I'm thinking it has applications well beyond covid. Viral pneumonia kills a lot of elderly in this country who otherwise might have lived quite a few more years. It also kills younger people.


----------



## nbp (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



idleprocess said:


> I live in Denton County TX. Let's take a look at the county's statistics:
> 
> 26,622 recovered
> 218 dead
> ...



So if you factor in the many thousands of asymptomatic people who were never tested and aren’t included in that 26k, wouldn’t that decrease that lethality rate considerably? That’s what I was asking about a page back or so. If the actual infection rate is 5-8x the confirmed cases the death rate might be like 20% of what you calculated, right?


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



nbp said:


> So if you factor in the many thousands of asymptomatic people who were never tested and aren’t included in that 26k, wouldn’t that decrease that lethality rate considerably? That’s what I was asking about a page back or so. If the actual infection rate is 5-8x the confirmed cases the death rate might be like 20% of what you calculated, right?


A good way to get a lower bound on the infection mortality rate is to look at NYC. We lost about 0.3% of our population to this. That's 0.3% of _everyone_, not 0.3% of people who tested positive. We actually lost over 2% of the population over 75. And far from everyone had it. If fact, antibody tests showed perhaps 20 to 25% of the population had it, making the infection mortality rate over 1%. Granted, most people who died in NYC did so when treatments were poor. Now the mortality rate would be somewhat less. However, my point is even if we assume the number of people infected is more than the number confirmed, there's _no way_ you'll end up with an infection mortality rate 20% of the 0.81% idleprocess calculated. The link I posted earlier is leaning towards somewhere around 0.65%. Maybe as treatments improve we'll ultimately settle at 0.5% or so. Then again, we might not. The infection mortality rates have been trending down not only due to better treatments, but also because mostly younger people constitute the bulk of new infections. The elderly are mostly staying in and taking precautions. Were this to start hitting all population groups equally we might find the rates getting over 1% again. However, any way you look at this, even best case, it's at least 5 times more lethal than the worst seasonal flu.


----------



## bigburly912 (Jan 3, 2021)

And I know people hate hearing this but mortality rates are lower because we are actually testing people and we know for sure if they died of Covid or not instead of just paper whipping it on death certificates. Flame suit on but it happened wether anyone wants to admit it or not. It’s not conspiracy theory.


----------



## nbp (Jan 3, 2021)

I don’t know what has happened in NYC since those numbers from many months ago you linked to were compiled. But I’m just going with the numbers in the link idleprocess posted since they are current and easily accessible. If the infection rate is 5x the confirmed cases that would 130k actual cases. 218 deaths out of 130k is .17%. Even if we missed some and round it up 300 deaths it’s about .23%. Is this not correct?


----------



## turbodog (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



nbp said:


> So if you factor in the many thousands of asymptomatic people who were never tested and aren’t included in that 26k, wouldn’t that decrease that lethality rate considerably? That’s what I was asking about a page back or so. If the actual infection rate is 5-8x the confirmed cases the death rate might be like 20% of what you calculated, right?



Yes. But we won't know those numbers till it's over. In addition... if we mass vaccinate _quickly_ then that will skew mortality rates also. In any case, it's safe to say this is a very serious health threat.


----------



## nbp (Jan 3, 2021)

Of course, I am not downplaying the fact that many have perished. But I see so many statistics tossed around and it seems depending on how a person decides to do their math you can either make things seem a lot better or lot worse. There is no consistent way to report on things unfortunately. Personally, I think it is important to lump in all the LIKELY cases to get a broader view, but someone else may feel the opposite. I dunno.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 3, 2021)

bigburly912 said:


> And I know people hate hearing this but mortality rates are lower because we are actually testing people and we know for sure if they died of Covid or not instead of just paper whipping it on death certificates. Flame suit on but it happened wether anyone wants to admit it or not. It’s not conspiracy theory.



No, not conspiracy. But not widespread also. This is a widespread and long duration event. I am sure we can find evidence of practically every fringe situation/event/etc if we dig hard enough. Sort of like the election crap. But was it widespread to simply mark down c-19? No. Far more likely that people died from covid and were NOT marked as such. This is from direct information coming straight from the front lines.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 3, 2021)

nbp said:


> Of course, I am not downplaying the fact that many have perished. But I see so many statistics tossed around and it seems depending on how a person decides to do their math you can either make things seem a lot better or lot worse. There is no consistent way to report on things unfortunately. Personally, I think it is important to lump in all the LIKELY cases to get a broader view, but someone else may feel the opposite. I dunno.



Don't think anyone it taking at that way. You are really talking about 'case fatality' rate, or the numbers we _know_ right now 100%. That's what I choose to deal with... as there are a lot of sources for confusion so I try NOT to add to it.

That said... the original figures thrown around were that for each confirmed infected we had 7-8 unconfirmed/untested cases. I'm beginning to doubt that and here's why.

My state has 10% of the population confirmed (either active or recovered). If the ratio is 1:7.5 then we have 85% of the citizens infected/recovered. This is well into herd immunity territory. And by the time we get _close_ to herd immunity, the rates of new infections WILL go into free fall.

Given that the rate is a high as it's ever been we clearly are NOT close to HI yet, so confirmed:unconfirmed ratio must be significantly lower.


----------



## Truckvet (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



jtr1962 said:


> It's actually settling closer to 0.65%, give or take.
> 
> 
> Untreated the mortality rate is upwards of 5%, similar to that of the Spanish flu. Thankfully with treatments and supportive care we can get that well under 1%. Also, the average age of the population affects mortality rate. In Africa the mortality rate seems to be much lower because most of the population is under 30.
> ...




From your link:

[FONT=&quot]While experts say this policy was flawed, is it fair to say that the governor’s directive “forced” nursing homes to take patients who were sick with COVID-19? And to what extent did that strategy sow the seeds of disease and death? When we examined the evidence, we found it was less clear-cut than the statement makes it seem. The policy likely had an effect, but epidemiologists identified additional factors that fed the problem. What’s more, the policy did not “force” nursing homes to accept COVID-positive patients. Nursing homes interpreted it this way.

So the nursing homes could have refused, and felt the wrath of the Governor, but
in my opinion, he really screwed up.

Sure Nursing home across the country have plenty of deaths, but not usually from Covid
they die of complications from old age.

These old people are not usually exposed to all the Germs that the rest of us in public are.
Unless your stupid enough to put Covid patients with them.

Read the whole link and you should agree.

What we are talking about is a statistic that should have been under one percent, raised because of Massive stupidity of the Governor.[/FONT]


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 3, 2021)

nbp said:


> I don’t know what has happened in NYC since those numbers from many months ago you linked to were compiled. But I’m just going with the numbers in the link idleprocess posted since they are current and easily accessible. If the infection rate is 5x the confirmed cases that would 130k actual cases. 218 deaths out of 130k is .17%. Even if we missed some and round it up 300 deaths it’s about .23%. Is this not correct?


But we're doing a lot more testing now. It's highly likely the infection rate might not be much higher than the number of confirmed cases. In March/April basically the only people being tested were those sick enough to seek medical care. Later on when they did antibody tests on random samples of people they found ~20% of the population actually had it. The confirmed numbers were I think around 3%. So the infection rate was ~7x the number of confirmed cases back when we weren't doing much testing. Now I'd be surprised if it's even 2x.


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## turbodog (Jan 3, 2021)

I think NY did about as best they could. They were crushed with the rapid onslaught of a new pathogen, rapidly dwindling hospital space, lack of PPE, and so on. He (and other leaders in NY) were looking for any place to put patients that was usable. And given just how lethal and virulent c-19 is, it's very likely a moot point. Yes, this was just ~9 calendar months ago, but that's not the same as 9 covid months. Things are different now, for better and worse.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



Truckvet said:


> From your link:
> 
> While experts say this policy was flawed, is it fair to say that the governor’s directive “forced” nursing homes to take patients who were sick with COVID-19? And to what extent did that strategy sow the seeds of disease and death? When we examined the evidence, we found it was less clear-cut than the statement makes it seem. The policy likely had an effect, but epidemiologists identified additional factors that fed the problem. What’s more, the policy did not “force” nursing homes to accept COVID-positive patients. Nursing homes interpreted it this way.
> 
> ...


First off, nursing homes even prior to this were hotbeds of misery and illness. Generally, if someone got some sort of contagious illness eventually it would make the rounds.

Second, the staff were probably responsible for most of the covid infections, or if not them visitors who became infected prior to when things were shut down. By mid-March when the state shut down non-essential operations covid had already spread virtually everywhere like wild fire, including in nursing homes. Granted, adding some covid patients may have made things slightly worse (as the rating of "mostly false" would indicate) but it's hardly the case that nursing homes would have had zero covid infections while every other place in the city was loaded with them if these covid patients were kept out.

Third, you're doing Monday morning quarterbacking. The reason for the policy was a very real fear hospitals would exceed capacity. It turns out this fear actually materialized in a number of hospitals where they ended up doing triage. Ask my brother. People were coding in the hallways and waiting rooms. So yes, in retrospect the policy was flawed, certainly caused more deaths than needed to happen. I'll admit that much. However, the death rate wouldn't have been under 1% as you claim even without this screw up. Frankly, the doctors and everyone else didn't know what they were doing back then.

If there was a massive failure, it was in failing to keep this disease from entering the country in the first place. We first knew of it in late December. At that point all air travel, foreign and domestic, should have been suspended. We might have been able to keep the case load manageable, as Australia and New Zealand did. We didn't unfortunately. And massive stupidity at all levels of government made this worse. The governor screwed up, the NYC Mayor screwed up even worse. And don't get me started at what happened on the federal level. The US has been a shining example to the rest of the world of what not to do.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 3, 2021)

turbodog said:


> I think NY did about as best they could. They were crushed with the rapid onslaught of a new pathogen, rapidly dwindling hospital space, lack of PPE, and so on. He (and other leaders in NY) were looking for any place to put patients that was usable. And given just how lethal and virulent c-19 is, it's very likely a moot point. Yes, this was just ~9 calendar months ago, but that's not the same as 9 covid months. Things are different now, for better and worse.


Also, doctors were just guessing at how best to treat patients. NY had the misfortune of getting hit very hard first. To our credit, we've managed it much better than most of the rest of the country since.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 3, 2021)

turbodog said:


> My state has 10% of the population confirmed (either active or recovered). If the ratio is 1:7.5 then we have 85% of the citizens infected/recovered. This is well into herd immunity territory. And by the time we get _close_ to herd immunity, the rates of new infections WILL go into free fall.
> 
> Given that the rate is a high as it's ever been we clearly are NOT close to HI yet, so confirmed:unconfirmed ratio must be significantly lower.


North Dakota has 12.2% confirmed cases and South Dakota has 11.4%, yet the rate of new infections isn't going into free fall. In both states, the number of daily new cases dropped by about a factor of 5 from its peak, but it seems to have plateaued. Most of the drop is attributable to mask wearing and people just staying home more, not herd immunity. All this just gives more weight to what you said. At this point with all the testing we're doing I doubt the ratio of infected/confirmed cases is even as high as 2, much less over 7.


----------



## idleprocess (Jan 3, 2021)

*Re: Covid Vaccine*



nbp said:


> So if you factor in the many thousands of asymptomatic people who were never tested and aren’t included in that 26k, wouldn’t that decrease that lethality rate considerably? That’s what I was asking about a page back or so. If the actual infection rate is 5-8x the confirmed cases the death rate might be like 20% of what you calculated, right?



One could certainly extrapolate the actual rate of infection based on tests administered then scale the infection rate to the entire county - i.e. microcovid.org is projecting 1.35% against 0.34% reported. But there are a number of unknowns involved making such an exercise fraught with large error bars.


----------



## nbp (Jan 3, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> But we're doing a lot more testing now. It's highly likely the infection rate might not be much higher than the number of confirmed cases. In March/April basically the only people being tested were those sick enough to seek medical care. Later on when they did antibody tests on random samples of people they found ~20% of the population actually had it. The confirmed numbers were I think around 3%. So the infection rate was ~7x the number of confirmed cases back when we weren't doing much testing. Now I'd be surprised if it's even 2x.



This is a good point. I wonder if I can find a more up to date idea of how many unknown cases there likely are per positive case.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 3, 2021)

nbp said:


> This is a good point. I wonder if I can find a more up to date idea of how many unknown cases there likely are per positive case.



My best bet would be someone modeling this thing mathematically and extrapolating. Or pulling other non-covid data like # tissues, cough medicine, etc bought in an area.

This conversation brings back up something I was talking about on the front end... we need random testing of general population. Would not take much to get an idea just how far along we are. But we are missing key components to execute this.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 3, 2021)

Brother in law, his brother, and father just signed DNR order for his mother. 4+ weeks on vent. She was looking up, then turned south 2-3 days ago.


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## scout24 (Jan 4, 2021)

Awww man! Very sad to hear. Hang in there...


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## Poppy (Jan 4, 2021)

turbodog,
Sorry to hear that she hasn't recovered.


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## bykfixer (Jan 4, 2021)

A little over a year ago at the annual Christmas gathering my siblings and I were discussing what if that new virus in China hits America. How bad would it be by July. We pondered that it may be the last one we had for a time until "the new Spanish flu" got contained. We laid out a sorta plan in case it was as bad as the Spanish flu. We did not gather this year. We spoke of not gathering for up to three years waiting on things to settle down. 

We discussed how America would blame each other and how politicians would use it as a tool. How the news would make things out to be the sky has fallen. How a mask debate would pit neighbor against neighbor as paranoia took hold. Basically we understood how the Spanish flu had laid waste to the global population until it finally didn't between 1916 and 1920. When I read posts in this thread I imagine the same type of conversations and conjecture took place a bit over 100 years ago but instead of it being through electronic medium not available at the time it was more town hall type of settings or op-ed columns in news papers. They did a lot wrong back then. And simply put we're doing a lot wrong this time. 

However in the big picture life will resume at some point. And my family will gather again at Christmas. Hopefully all will be there at that time who were there in 019.


----------



## PhotonWrangler (Jan 4, 2021)

I am sorry to hear this Turbo. I'm keeping her in my thoughts.


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## turbodog (Jan 4, 2021)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I am sorry to hear this Turbo. I'm keeping her in my thoughts.



Thanks, but at this point... 

I only met her a few times. The brother in law and I are fairly tight, but I don't see her funeral being attended by me and mine. It's been a rough 5 weeks or so. You want daily updates/improvement and it comes slowly. Doctor said covid recovery is measured in weeks, not days.


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## slavikyc (Jan 6, 2021)

Yes, our office has switched back to remote work via an employee tracking app. I cannot condemn the decision of the authorities to reinforce the precautions, the situation is getting worse.


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## turbodog (Jan 6, 2021)

Pulmonology doc said lungs would never recover. Life support removed. She passed ~90 mins later. This was yesterday. Doubt there w/ be much of a funeral.


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## scout24 (Jan 6, 2021)

Slavikyc- I removed the unnecessary link in your post, a description of what it was is preferred. Thanks!


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 7, 2021)

We reached 4,100 deaths in the US yesterday. Stay safe out there. Things are getting worse.


----------



## markr6 (Jan 7, 2021)

Shots here for 80+. 70+ next week or the following. Initial trials were phenomenal, but the damn thing better work!


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## Poppy (Jan 7, 2021)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> We reached 4,100 deaths in the US yesterday. Stay safe out there. Things are getting worse.


German casualties on D-Day have been estimated at 4,000 to 9,000 men. Allied casualties were documented for at least 10,000, with 4,414 confirmed dead.


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## WarriorOfLight (Jan 8, 2021)

Poppy said:


> German casualties on D-Day have been estimated at 4,000 to 9,000 men. Allied casualties were documented for at least 10,000, with 4,414 confirmed dead.


In Hiroshima there were 50000 - 60000 civilians killed in one second.... guess war is a bad compare compare for everything. At all ... "_Death is the winner_ in any _war_."


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## scout24 (Jan 8, 2021)

Back on track please, folks.


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## Poppy (Jan 10, 2021)

Does anyone here have a handle on what the story is regarding the dissemination of the vaccine?

One one hand its been said that there is a shortage of people qualified to inject people.
And on the other it is said that Biden wants to delay giving the second dose so that more people can get the first dose.

Is the problem a shortage of vaccine? Or a shortage of manpower? A shortage of facilities? I'm confused.


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## bigburly912 (Jan 10, 2021)

Poppy said:


> Does anyone here have a handle on what the story is regarding the dissemination of the vaccine?
> 
> One one hand its been said that there is a shortage of people qualified to inject people.
> And on the other it is said that Biden wants to delay giving the second dose so that more people can get the first dose.
> ...



I don’t understand. Ballad health is one of the absolute crappiest healthcare companies in the US snd they have had no problems getting the vaccine administered to workers. They have certain days set up that each group goes at different facilities. My wife just had her second dose and so did several hundred others. If those idiots can pull it off I’m sure anyone else should be able to. The shortage makes no sense. I think it is all just “news filler” as much of the stories that have changed a million times are. 

At first it was “we found extra doses!” Then it was shortage of manpower (in ballads case they hired back some of the people THEY LAID OFF for the pandemic. Then it was we don’t have enough for the first round of vaccines. Then it was delay the dosing. Then it was some state up north couldn’t acquire the dosing they needed to give to their prisoners since they were put first on the list. I’m tired of the “news”.


----------



## knucklegary (Jan 10, 2021)

BB I've completely cut power to my tv. No news is good news imo

Ya know I'm feeling a whole lot better since..


----------



## Katherine Alicia (Jan 10, 2021)

knucklegary said:


> BB I've completely cut power to my tv. No news is good news imo
> 
> Ya know I'm feeling a whole lot better since..



I stopped watching it nearly 3 years ago too, it does make a difference! 
especially since I learned from the inside that they put up 17 bad news articles for every 1 good one because it`s the ratio that seems to sell the best!


----------



## PhotonWrangler (Jan 10, 2021)

Katherine Alicia said:


> I stopped watching it nearly 3 years ago too, it does make a difference!
> especially since I learned from the inside that they put up 17 bad news articles for every 1 good one because it`s the ratio that seems to sell the best!




"If it bleeds it leads." It's an old cynical saying in news circles but it's true.


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## idleprocess (Jan 10, 2021)

knucklegary said:


> BB I've completely cut power to my tv. No news is good news imo
> 
> Ya know I'm feeling a whole lot better since..



TV news is pretty horrible. I've made a point not to watch it most of my adult life.


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## turbodog (Jan 10, 2021)

What's this stuff called 'news' y'all are speaking about?


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## turbodog (Jan 10, 2021)

But to answer the question... the rollout I have seen: Where it's AVAILABLE it's great. Drive through, roll down window, stick out arm, and done. But these places are booked solid, not staffed for very many hours, and closed all weekend.

People, the virus works 24x7x365, you need to also! Argh!

Moderna vaccines have arrived.

I think the cold chain is an issue. I can't say for sure, but it's an informed guess based on what I know about lack of -100F freezer availability.

I'm hoping the j&j version will be the game changer, only needs fridge temps and 1 single dose.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 10, 2021)

I thinking why don't they just do this with mobile vaccination vans? Inform people on a block what day the van will be there. Most people can go to the van to get vaccinations. Those who are immobile, like my mother, could probably have the workers vaccinate her in the house, or outside on the stoop. Then they come by 3 weeks later to give the second doses to everyone who got the first dose.

Drive though only works if you have a car, a driver's license, and are physically able to drive. That misses many elderly people who are in most need of getting vaccinated.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 10, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> TV news is pretty horrible. I've made a point not to watch it most of my adult life.


I watch it just in case there's something that might affect me. This week was obviously an overflow of nothing but horrible, depressing news. In fact, most of 2020 was that way. So much for me thinking when I rang in 2020 that a new decade was starting and maybe things will finally change for the better.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 10, 2021)

turbodog said:


> I think the cold chain is an issue. I can't say for sure, but it's an informed guess based on what I know about lack of -100F freezer availability.


This is one thing that has taken me by surprise. I was under the impression that most hospitals and university research labs already had ultralow temperature freezers. My guess is the primary problem is in transit from the manufacturer to the distribution point.


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## turbodog (Jan 10, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> This is one thing that has taken me by surprise. I was under the impression that most hospitals and university research labs already had ultralow temperature freezers. My guess is the primary problem is in transit from the manufacturer to the distribution point.



Don't think that's a problem. UPS & Fedex both have special cold chain capability, and the dry ice for the initial transit is not a problem.

Those freezers are not as common as you think. Mfg is swamped with orders... we can't build ourselves out of this shortage.

Trying to vaccinate 200 million in the USA alone is a heck of a task.


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## Poppy (Jan 10, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> This is one thing that has taken me by surprise. I was under the impression that most hospitals and university research labs already had ultralow temperature freezers. My guess is the primary problem is in transit from the manufacturer to the distribution point.


And that is my point.
You are intelligent, and pay attention to detail, and yet you are only guessing!

Why are you guessing? Because by way of the media, WE have NOT been told what the problem is.


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## turbodog (Jan 11, 2021)

Poppy said:


> And that is my point.
> You are intelligent, and pay attention to detail, and yet you are only guessing!
> 
> Why are you guessing? Because by way of the media, WE have NOT been told what the problem is.



Public health people have probably never studied a vaccine rollout where there was 1) such troublesome cold chain requirements and 2) so MANY people refuse to take the vaccine.

Your state health dept would be the place to find information. Beyond that... walgreens/cvs are due to get moderna, so your local pharmacy might know something on ETA.

Several of my family is in healthcare and were not slated to get it till later, but got it almost immediately due to vaccine refusals.


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## raggie33 (Jan 11, 2021)

am i the only one who think co2 will be in high demand?


----------



## nbp (Jan 11, 2021)

Yes. CO2 is a aplenty; in fact we’re actively trying to find ways to get rid of it.


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## raggie33 (Jan 11, 2021)

isnt c02 how we ship the vacinne?


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## turbodog (Jan 11, 2021)

raggie33 said:


> isnt c02 how we ship the vacinne?



Frozen CO2... dry ice.

Fun tip: if you have a chunk of this stuff... put it on your countertop. The part that touches the counter will "melt"/sublime into CO2 gas causing the whole chunk to float around, jump around, and emit a screeching noise.

Do NOT leave too long or you can crack/damage the counter.


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## nbp (Jan 11, 2021)

Ohhh. Haha. I thought you mis-typed and meant 02 at hospitals, since that is in fact in short supply. My mistake.


----------



## markr6 (Jan 11, 2021)

I think the Pfizer vaccine is pretty smart to know the difference between -94°F and say, -60°F. They both sound colder than cold to me!


----------



## bykfixer (Jan 11, 2021)

Looking at a bloomberg article today it says 2.5 doses per 100 people so far since December 14th. That's 8.07 million in a bit over 3 weeks. 36% of doses made have been given out. 278k+ have completed the 2 dose regimen. 
Over 26 million in 43 countries. 

I personally find that pretty amazing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
The article where I read this.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 11, 2021)

California and Texas both now have the dubious distinction of joining New York with over 30K covid deaths. NY is actually closing in on 40K.


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## Poppy (Jan 12, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> Looking at a bloomberg article today it says 2.5 doses per 100 people so far since December 14th. That's 8.07 million in a bit over 3 weeks. 36% of doses made have been given out. 278k+ have completed the 2 dose regimen.
> Over 26 million in 43 countries.
> 
> I personally find that pretty amazing.
> ...


Lots of interesting information in that link.
Thanks Mr Fixer :thumbsup:


----------



## Dave_5280 (Jan 12, 2021)

[FONT=&quot]Another vaccine phase 3 trial, this time for Novavax, is open if anyone wants to try it:[/FONT]

https://www.novavax.com/PREVENT-19


----------



## bykfixer (Jan 12, 2021)

Poppy said:


> Lots of interesting information in that link.
> Thanks Mr Fixer :thumbsup:



You're welcome. The tabs at the top also open up lots of current information as well.


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## turbodog (Jan 12, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> Looking at a bloomberg article today it says 2.5 doses per 100 people so far since December 14th. That's 8.07 million in a bit over 3 weeks. 36% of doses made have been given out. 278k+ have completed the 2 dose regimen.
> Over 26 million in 43 countries.
> 
> I personally find that pretty amazing.
> ...



Israel is at 20% vaccinated. Clearly _someone_ had a plan!

https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-coronavirus-vaccine-success-secret/


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## bykfixer (Jan 12, 2021)

Isreal has about 9 million people and only about 8600 square miles. America about 350 million and about 8.9 million square miles. Apples to broccoli. 

If America were vaccinating in Isreal they'd be at about 90% being America has vaccinated 8 million………


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## SCEMan (Jan 12, 2021)

turbodog said:


> Israel is at 20% vaccinated. Clearly _someone_ had a plan!
> 
> https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-coronavirus-vaccine-success-secret/



Unlike Taxifornia which ranks 42nd in the US in vaccinations administered per capita despite having the most vaccine doses of any state and third nationally in coronavirus deaths.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/California-vaccine-data-rate-COVID-15864343.php


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## bigburly912 (Jan 12, 2021)

I had a long winded thought out post about how well they do handing out hypodermic needles to addicts so they should follow that plan for vaccine distribution............. I changed my mind

I’m seriously just saying if they can hand out almost 5 million hypodermics to the addicts every year they should be able to get some vaccines administered. I’m sure they have the man power


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 12, 2021)

bigburly912 said:


> I’m seriously just saying if they can hand out almost 5 million hypodermics to the addicts every year they should be able to get some vaccines administered. I’m sure they have the man power



Part of the problem seems to be happening at the state level, where distribution plans seem to be different from state to state. Another problem is that many in the 1A phase don't want to get vaccinated, including a surprising number of nursing home staff. So the vaccine sits around and possibly needs to be discarded as it goes stale instead of states allowing for wider distribution to the elderly and infirm among the general public.

My state has been giving out conflicting information on eligibility recently. Hopefully today's CDC recommendation will loosen the bottlenecks.


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## KITROBASKIN (Jan 12, 2021)

My employer (large public school district) just informed us that we are all to be tested for COVID. They estimate 1400 a week and have everybody within a few months. Saliva test from a company named Vault. Does anyone here have this situation? Thoughts?


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## nbp (Jan 12, 2021)

Tested for antibodies to see if you already had it or testing for active viral RNA to see if you’re currently infected? If it’s going to take months to test everyone to see if they are currently infected, it seems almost useless. I mean random tests like that might catch a few, but you never really start with a clean slate. You could have infected people you haven’t gotten to yet or infected people you tested weeks ago and were infected afterwards. I would think targeted testing for those who have had probable contact with positive cases would be more useful than just grabbing randomly assigned chunks of employees week by week.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 13, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> Isreal has about 9 million people and only about 8600 square miles. America about 350 million and about 8.9 million square miles. Apples to broccoli.
> 
> If America were vaccinating in Israel they'd be at about 90% being America has vaccinated 8 million………



Not really. Easiest way to compare is using the rate of vaccination. Yes they are smaller and less populated, but that also means their healthcare system is smaller also.


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## bigburly912 (Jan 13, 2021)

? Logistics has to be the problem. If you have all of the people you need vaccinated in 8600 square miles you don’t see an advantage there?


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## jtr1962 (Jan 13, 2021)

bigburly912 said:


> ? Logistics has to be the problem. If you have all of the people you need vaccinated in 8600 square miles you don’t see an advantage there?


Not necessarily. Here's the current vaccination status in NYC. Only about 0.35% of the population received both doses, and only 2.85% received their first dose. This is despite everyone who needs to be vaccinated being within 400 square miles.


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## bigburly912 (Jan 13, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> Not necessarily. Here's the current vaccination status in NYC. Only about 0.35% of the population received both doses, and only 2.85% received their first dose. This is despite everyone who needs to be vaccinated being within 400 square miles.



It’s one country with one plan. The US is several states with several plans. It’s a logistics nightmare.


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## markr6 (Jan 13, 2021)

bigburly912 said:


> It’s one country with one plan. The US is several states with several plans. It’s a logistics nightmare.




EXACTLY!!!! Yea for federalism.


----------



## KITROBASKIN (Jan 13, 2021)

nbp said:


> Tested for antibodies to see if you already had it or testing for active viral RNA to see if you’re currently infected? If it’s going to take months to test everyone to see if they are currently infected, it seems almost useless. I mean random tests like that might catch a few, but you never really start with a clean slate. You could have infected people you haven’t gotten to yet or infected people you tested weeks ago and were infected afterwards. I would think targeted testing for those who have had probable contact with positive cases would be more useful than just grabbing randomly assigned chunks of employees week by week.


Thanks. I need to be careful what I say. It is the state board of education requiring all educational employee COVID testing. Those who are previously positive will not be tested again for something like 3 months.

It is a condition of employment. After telling us that it is free and those with insurance must show proof, and a picture ID when told to order the test kit, then we must be on a video meet where health personnel will guide us individually how to administer the saliva test, it is frustrating in that those health insurance costs are home-wrecking (for all of us living on the edge) as it is NOW if there is a significant injury/illness. Health Insurance will increase our expense to pay for this no doubt. Meanwhile our cautionary behaviors will not change of course. 

Our current hospitalizations rate has gone down in New Mexico.

The school board has stipulated that test positivity rate must go down; become 'green' in our county, in order for students to begin phased in-person learning... They also require the new cases COVID numbers to go down as well.


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## bykfixer (Jan 13, 2021)

bigburly912 said:


> It’s one country with one plan. The US is several states with several plans. It’s a logistics nightmare.


At least 50. Now factor in territories for more wild card fun n games. Woohoo!!

At my work we have monthly team meetings via (ironically) microsoft teams. It began last March if I recall correctly. We took a poll this time to see who wants to meet in person next month. Only one person said no. A svelt, healthy young fellow who has been working from home since April said he feels like it's too soon. He's oh, about 24?/25……after that I'm the pup at 56, well except for the 48 year old team leader who takes care of her elderly dad and brother with a fatal illness who both ironically survived Covid-19 back in November. Neither were even hospitalized. Both said they felt pretty lousy for a couple of weeks though. The team leaders brother had a nurse bring it into the home without knowing it. 

Minus the one guy working from home the rest work outdoors most of the time and have met dozens if not hundreds of strangers in the last year. At first it was scarey I will admit. But using common sense and judgement when to mask up etc we've been so far so good so Lord willing we are going to meet at a barbecue joint for lunch next month. I've met a few people lately who had it and said you know you're sick that's for sure. One guy told me he had it and felt strange for a day or two then on day 3 knew he had something awful. It was before the "15 days to slow the spread" last year so he did not know what it was and did not quarentine himself at first. He said nobody in his home besides him got sick. He said he had no idea where he got it. He wears a mask everyday. I asked why. He said "I don't ever want to get that *** again". lol

Who knows how many of us got a small case and figured it was allergies or a cold……


----------



## NY09C6 (Jan 13, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> Not necessarily. Here's the current vaccination status in NYC. Only about 0.35% of the population received both doses, and only 2.85% received their first dose. This is despite everyone who needs to be vaccinated being within 400 square miles.



The joys of micromanagement by NY government. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## turbodog (Jan 13, 2021)

bigburly912 said:


> It’s one country with one plan. The US is several states with several plans. It’s a logistics nightmare.



I'll agree with that. People forget that the usa is literally the united STATES of america.

That said... I still maintain that it was technically possible, as far as turning ups, fedex, and amazon loose with it. That doesn't mean it was going to happen.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 13, 2021)

Word of warning for those sitting on the fence. *If you are on the allowed list, I urge you to take the vaccine NOW.* 

This is for 2 reasons:

1. I believe in the vaccine. Flat out. 100% (pfizer and moderna, and later j&j)

2. Your state will eventually experience an explosion of acceptance... and supplies will run dry. This just happened to MS today. We are *OUT* and won't resupply for a *MONTH*. People that could take it and waited are *NOT* happy, especially considering that a resupply will come around when the first group needs a 2nd dose... thereby going to the front of the line.

Sometime Tuesday, everyone decided they wanted it. The website crashed. They fixed it today. The queue on the registration site was over 9k long last I saw. A short time after that, they pulled the plug and issued the month-delay statement.

FWIW, I got my shot (moderna) about 3 hours before the bad news hit today. Army lady sort of attacked my arm like a caveman spearing a rabbit. Fastest injection I've ever had! Little soreness/heat at site. Not a big deal.


----------



## idleprocess (Jan 14, 2021)

turbodog said:


> Word of warning for those sitting on the fence. *If you are on the allowed list, I urge you to take the vaccine NOW.*



I have mixed feelings on this. On one hand I can work from home indefinitely, am healthy, and socially distance like a (intramural league) champ. On the other hand, widespread vaccine ... skepticism ... means that everyone who can be vaccinated should be. I could pull the _critical infrastructure employee_ card if necessary - and likely will if my employer decides to recall the diaspora to the office at the end of the quarter.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 14, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> I have mixed feelings on this. On one hand I can work from home indefinitely, am healthy, and socially distance like a (intramural league) champ. On the other hand, widespread vaccine ... skepticism ... means that everyone who can be vaccinated should be. I could pull the _critical infrastructure employee_ card if necessary - and likely will if my employer decides to recall the diaspora to the office at the end of the quarter.



If the same thing happens to TX that just happened to MS... I could easily see you going through a resupply/wipeout cycle in short order and find yourself in early March before getting jabbed.

I say unless you're NOT going to take it, go ahead as soon as you can.


----------



## bykfixer (Jan 14, 2021)

Ah, the ole lack of demand versus supply trick……
The people yawned at the opportunity, then the supply vanished  and just like that everybody wants one now.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 14, 2021)

Yup, and boy are they pissed right now also.

Glad I got mine yesterday... had to drive ~2 hours to a less populated county for it.


----------



## markr6 (Jan 14, 2021)

They're thinking you have about 5 months immunity after having covid. Weak.

They say the vaccine can last up to a year. Is that a marketing guy "up to", or a scientist "up to"?



bykfixer said:


> Ah, the ole lack of demand versus supply trick……
> The people yawned at the opportunity, then the supply vanished  and just like that everybody wants one now.



Me 5 years ago: I don't shoot much anymore. Ammo is expensive now, I'll get some later.
Me now: I NEED AMMO!!!!


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## orbital (Jan 14, 2021)

+

There should be a Serology Test done before any C19 vaccination. The rest is logic.


re ammo: there still is a gov. hold & that may not change


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## knucklegary (Jan 14, 2021)

markr6 said:


> They're thinking you have about 5 months immunity after having covid. Weak.
> 
> They say the vaccine can last up to a year. Is that a marketing guy "up to", or a scientist "up to"?
> 
> ...



Purchase reloading equipment before it's outlawed


----------



## markr6 (Jan 14, 2021)

I keep thinking, since this virus is such a big deal, why couldn't the government make/pay/convince each manufacturer to just get it done. "Here's how we did it"...then have everyone else copy and pump out 10 million doses per day. It shouldn't be a cost issue considering the cash we're throwing around anyway.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 14, 2021)

orbital said:


> +
> 
> There should be a Serology Test done before any C19 vaccination. The rest is logic.
> 
> ...



The healthcare system & labs can barely keep up with existing tests... to add that load simply is not possible for a wide variety of reasons. Sorry.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 14, 2021)

markr6 said:


> I keep thinking, since this virus is such a big deal, why couldn't the government make/pay/convince each manufacturer to just get it done. "Here's how we did it"...then have everyone else copy and pump out 10 million doses per day. It shouldn't be a cost issue considering the cash we're throwing around anyway.



Because you keep running up against capacity issues regardless of how much money you can throw at it. Sort of like the ultra low temp freezers... worldwide shortage of them and the plants are already running 24x7x365 making them.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 14, 2021)

markr6 said:


> I keep thinking, since this virus is such a big deal, why couldn't the government make/pay/convince each manufacturer to just get it done. "Here's how we did it"...then have everyone else copy and pump out 10 million doses per day. It shouldn't be a cost issue considering the cash we're throwing around anyway.


There would be the logistics of actually administering that many doses daily. No point in ramping up production capacity if the vaccine is just going to sit there in freezers for weeks or longer. We really need to start working very hard on how to actually vaccinate large numbers of people, like at least 1 million per day, with 2 million being even better. In order to reach herd immunity, not only do we need to vaccinate most of the population, but we need to do so within the time frame during which the vaccine is effective or the first people vaccinated will start to lose immunity.

Then there's the issue of having enough trained people to actually administer the vaccine. That's another thing in short supply.

For a while they were talking about the possibility of just putting some sort of vaccine in municipal water supplies. I'm gathering that's not possible?


----------



## orbital (Jan 14, 2021)

+

Someone would have to be a real ______ to have the natural anti-bodies, then waste a vaccination dose.

Testing should then shift to serology.


----------



## markr6 (Jan 14, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> There would be the logistics of actually administering that many doses daily. No point in ramping up production capacity if the vaccine is just going to sit there in freezers for weeks or longer. We really need to start working very hard on how to actually vaccinate large numbers of people, like at least 1 million per day, with 2 million being even better. In order to reach herd immunity, not only do we need to vaccinate most of the population, but we need to do so within the time frame during which the vaccine is effective or the first people vaccinated will start to lose immunity.
> 
> Then there's the issue of having enough trained people to actually administer the vaccine. That's another thing in short supply.
> 
> For a while they were talking about the possibility of just putting some sort of vaccine in municipal water supplies. I'm gathering that's not possible?




That makes sense. I saw dentists were being trained to give shots. The ones puts in my mouth work great, why not? :laughing:


----------



## turbodog (Jan 14, 2021)

orbital said:


> +
> 
> Someone would have to be a real ______ to have the natural anti-bodies, then waste a vaccination dose.
> 
> Testing should then shift to serology.



And again. Complete lack of supplies for mass testing, not counting all the other issues w/ mass testing.

Some of your lab machines are NOT designed to run 24x7. This is starting to cause issues w/ machines. You need downtime to perform maintenance and other tasks. These items can be delayed slightly but not forever.


----------



## KITROBASKIN (Jan 14, 2021)

While I am registered with the state and in line to get the COVID vaccine, still wondering about adverse effects. Has anyone seen numbers of how many problems have occurred with people getting these? All that seems to be out there are warnings not to take it if one is allergic to any of the ingredients of the vaccine. Localized redness, pain or discomfort may occur. Of course no one can say if there are any long term effects.


----------



## PhotonWrangler (Jan 14, 2021)

KITROBASKIN said:


> While I am registered with the state and in line to get the COVID vaccine, still wondering about adverse effects. Has anyone seen numbers of how many problems have occurred with people getting these? All that seems to be out there are warnings not to take it if one is allergic to any of the ingredients of the vaccine. Localized redness, pain or discomfort may occur. Of course no one can say if there are any long term effects.




I have read that one patient with a shellfish allergy had a severe reaction to the Moderna vaccine. He was able to be stabilized quickly with an Epi pen.


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## bigburly912 (Jan 14, 2021)

There’s been a few. That’s normal for A LOT of vaccinations


----------



## nbp (Jan 14, 2021)

markr6 said:


> They're thinking you have about 5 months immunity after having covid. Weak.
> 
> They say the vaccine can last up to a year. Is that a marketing guy "up to", or a scientist "up to"?



Did you read a specific article that gave these time frames? I’ve been curious about the length of time the vaccine is likely to be effective for.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 14, 2021)

nbp said:


> Did you read a specific article that gave these time frames? I’ve been curious about the length of time the vaccine is likely to be effective for.



Worth mentioning that effectiveness tapers off for all vaccines I am aware of. Am sure there are a few exceptions, but if smallpox were to reappear... it would be bad.


----------



## nbp (Jan 14, 2021)

Sure, but some last many years, even decades. If we have to go through this insanity every year... hah. People aren’t going to keep that up. Thus, my curiousity.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 14, 2021)

turbodog said:


> Worth mentioning that effectiveness tapers off for all vaccines I am aware of. Am sure there are a few exceptions, but if smallpox were to reappear... it would be bad.


This is an interesting discussion of several smallpox attack scenarios.

_The federal government has indicated that voluntary vaccination of the general public may be approved after health care workers and first responders have been vaccinated. Increasing the number of vaccinated persons will inevitably lead to increases in morbidity and mortality due to vaccinia, and current evidence suggests net harm would result if smallpox vaccine were made available to the general public on a voluntary basis. Such a policy would pose a risk to both the vaccinees and their close contacts (who presumably have not consented to vaccinia exposure) with little or no benefit under many attack scenarios. If this complex public health decision is delegated to individual citizens, some individuals will be unable to weigh the risks and benefits for true informed consent. If real cases of smallpox ever occur in the United States, the risk-benefit assessment of mass vaccination may favor mass vaccination, and federal and state agencies are preparing for this possibility._


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## turbodog (Jan 14, 2021)

Read a fiction, but reasonably accurate, book about smallpox reappearing called 'the demon in the freezer'.


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## turbodog (Jan 14, 2021)

nbp said:


> Sure, but some last many years, even decades. If we have to go through this insanity every year... hah. People aren’t going to keep that up. Thus, my curiousity.



There are a ton of people studying just this. Am sure, as data comes out, that we will be informed.

FYI, when I got my 1st dose yesterday I signed up for text message 'how are you doing' type communication. Get a text a day for a while, a reminder for dose #2, and followup texts (gradually declining) for the next 6-12 months or so.


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## bigburly912 (Jan 16, 2021)

Promising research on the effects of green tea inhibiting Covid


----------



## Scotty321 (Jan 16, 2021)

KITROBASKIN said:


> While I am registered with the state and in line to get the COVID vaccine, still wondering about adverse effects. Has anyone seen numbers of how many problems have occurred with people getting these? All that seems to be out there are warnings not to take it if one is allergic to any of the ingredients of the vaccine. Localized redness, pain or discomfort may occur. Of course no one can say if there are any long term effects.



I've been speaking with some friends and family members in other states who are in the healthcare industry and have either gotten the shots, or have coworkers that have received them. At least in the 4-5 instances relayed to me, feeling a little drained for a day and maybe a headache for a few hours afterwards was about the extent (at least from these accounts) of their reactions to the vaccine... I know... there are two shots over time. I also found it interesting that those that had contracted the virus and recovered still received the vaccinations.



nbp said:


> Did you read a specific article that gave these time frames? I’ve been curious about the length of time the vaccine is likely to be effective for.





turbodog said:


> Worth mentioning that effectiveness tapers off for all vaccines I am aware of. Am sure there are a few exceptions, but if smallpox were to reappear... it would be bad.



I remember the doctor of one of my elderly family members suggesting getting the flu shot in November, IIRC, because if taken too early it could start losing effectiveness by the time the cases became more prevalant... this was a few years ago. I think vaccines for some viruses might be good indefinitely, but I don't think that's the case for flu vaccines... hence the yearly vaccinations for "at risk" individuals, as well as the changing flu types. I could be wrong...


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## jtr1962 (Jan 18, 2021)

Has anyone else read about this?

https://www.reportdoor.com/1-in-8-recovered-covid-19-patients-die-within-5-months-study/

_Researchers at the UK’s Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics found that out of 47,780 people discharged from the hospital, 29.4 percent were readmitted within 140 days. Of the total, 12.3 percent succumbed to the illness, it added.

_Thinking about this a little, since approximately 20% of covid-19 patients require hospitalization, and 1 out of 8 those die after supposedly recovering, this increases the mortality rate by about 2.5%, on top of the ~1.5% so far. That's an overall mortality rate of about 4%, which is at least 40 times that of the worst seasonal flus. Based on this, the lock downs and other measures to contain the virus certainly now seem justified.

We also don't know about the long-term prospects of those who might not need to be readmitted to a hospital months later. Those people could still have years taken off their lives due to the damage covid-19 did to their bodies. I think we're going to be dealing with the repercussions of this for a very long time, even after we reach herd immunity via vaccinations.


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## bigburly912 (Jan 18, 2021)

All of my wife’s patients even from early on have made full recoveries. Granted that’s just a small sample size. I don’t know of anyone dying from it later on at all out of my circle.


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## knucklegary (Jan 18, 2021)

BB were those folks you know left with side effects, such as scared lungs or damaged taste smell nerves?


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## bigburly912 (Jan 18, 2021)

One of the guys I work with has scarred lungs. Boy is younger than me and I’m only 35. He is back to work but he is so weak. 

My 76 year old aunt is fine, no lung damage even though she has a plethora of health problems. Taste and smell fine after 3 months. 

88 year old neighbor and wife have no side effects whatsoever. 

The guys at the plant I used to manage (6 guys) 2 still haven’t gained full taste/smell after 2 months. Others are fine. 

My wife hasn’t said anything about long term side effects but I’ll ask this evening.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 18, 2021)

bigburly912 said:


> All of my wife’s patients even from early on have made full recoveries. Granted that’s just a small sample size. I don’t know of anyone dying from it later on at all out of my circle.


At this stage here's my thinking. All the people referred to in the article who later died were part of the first wave, when we basically didn't know how to treat this thing. The people who "recovered" were likely left with much more severe damage than people who got it more recently, and had the benefit of better treatments.

How many of your wife's patients were from the first wave? I'm asking because outside of the northeast, it largely didn't hit the rest of the country until mid summer. By then treatments were already markedly better, as evidenced by the lower mortality rate of hospitalized patients.


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## turbodog (Jan 18, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> At this stage here's my thinking. All the people referred to in the article who later died were part of the first wave, when we basically didn't know how to treat this thing. The people who "recovered" were likely left with much more severe damage than people who got it more recently, and had the benefit of better treatments.
> 
> How many of your wife's patients were from the first wave? I'm asking because outside of the northeast, it largely didn't hit the rest of the country until mid summer. By then treatments were already markedly better, as evidenced by the lower mortality rate of hospitalized patients.



This is what I thought also. And to go along with that, in the 'good news' category: cases are way up, but hospitalizations are not use as much, and neither are vent patients.

Guess we are in the better treatment and less vulnerable part of this adventure.


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## bykfixer (Jan 18, 2021)

In round 1 as it were retirement communities and nursing homes took the biggest brunt so of course fatailites were off the charts. That was during the 45 days to slow the spread that ended up going until around Memorial Day in the US. Things generally got pretty stable during the summer months. 

This time the general population is spreading it like any normal year of colds and flu so being a more healthy population is spreading it the natural result would be less people getting really sick from it. Being the case there are still a lot of people going to the hospital. 

And poof, just like that the second wave. There are treatments, yes but that is only a part of the equation as to why less people seem to sucumb to the virus. 

If you've watched cases in age groups you saw what I mean. Now that more and more elderly are surviving that is possibly from new good treatments. The rest is quite possibly due to the fact that the novel virus not being as deadly as those talking heads on tv want you to believe.


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## bigburly912 (Jan 18, 2021)

Wife said most of her early ons were nursing home patients. She had one that developed a heart condition after “recovery”. Rest seem to be fine so far.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 18, 2021)

I lost an aunt over the weekend due to Covid. She was in a nursing home and very frail in her upper 90s. Initially it appeared that she was recovering and they moved her from the Covid ward back to her regular area, but then she suddenly went downhill fast. From whet I understand so far there was kidney failure which might have precipitated other problems.


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## NY09C6 (Jan 18, 2021)

markr6 said:


> They're thinking you have about 5 months immunity after having covid. Weak.
> 
> They say the vaccine can last up to a year. Is that a marketing guy "up to", or a scientist "up to"?
> 
> ...



The 5 month deal is absolutely terrible media reporting. You need to dig into why they are stating this. Reporting like this is why they are no longer credible. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## ledbetter (Jan 21, 2021)

One year anniversary of first reported case in U.S.And after over 400,000 deaths in our country, we finally have a national plan to deal with it. Better late than never.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 21, 2021)

ledbetter said:


> One year anniversary of first reported case in U.S.And after over 400,000 deaths in our country, we finally have a national plan to deal with it. Better late than never.


I was thinking the same. If we had handled this well, we probably would have been well under 10,000 deaths. Europe didn't handle it particularly well, either.


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## turbodog (Jan 21, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> I was thinking the same. If we had handled this well, we probably would have been well under 10,000 deaths. Europe didn't handle it particularly well, either.



Don't think we could have ever kept it that low. Just a few nursing/long term care facilities would blow that number up.

FYI, red cross was reporting antibodies in Dec 2019 blood supply a couple of months back. So contact tracing would have a field day with trying to track all those down.

Given the fractured nature of coordinating 50 states... even at best I cannot dream of 10k dead.


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## orbital (Jan 21, 2021)

+

I was deleting bookmarks on my browser yesterday & this is the only one on C19 I had,_ from last summer.
_
T cell part is interesting:: https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/02/heal...cross-reactivity-immunity-wellness/index.html


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## bykfixer (Jan 21, 2021)

Poof: This just in; 
Time to reopen the economy and schools everywhere since the mean old pandemic is now cowering in fear across America……


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## jtr1962 (Jan 21, 2021)

turbodog said:


> Don't think we could have ever kept it that low. Just a few nursing/long term care facilities would blow that number up.
> 
> FYI, red cross was reporting antibodies in Dec 2019 blood supply a couple of months back. So contact tracing would have a field day with trying to track all those down.
> 
> Given the fractured nature of coordinating 50 states... even at best I cannot dream of 10k dead.


And I wonder if it was around even earlier than December 2019. To this day I think that severe illness I had in early fall 2019 was very similar to covid. Extreme weakness, fatigue just standing up for 30 seconds, followed by a several months long recovery. If covid-19 was indeed around that early, my thoughts on why it didn't spread like crazy was this form wasn't particularly transmissible. Assuming that's the case, later on it mutated into a much more transmissible form, starting in China. The virus may not have even originated in China for all we know. It just became much more virulent there.


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## bigburly912 (Jan 21, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> The virus may not have even originated in China for all we know. It just became much more virulent there.



Since we are wondering out loud and trying not to blame China I’ll go the other way. I wonder if China may have released it on their citizens to quell the riots? What’s a little coronavirus, usually not much of anything. Enough to make people stay home though. Let’s say you released this virus and it was worse than first thought so you hide the facts from the rest of the world. Your neighbors find out and immediately lock down and leak out info to the rest of the world. 

I’m not saying that’s what happened but it’s a thought.


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## raggie33 (Jan 21, 2021)

im so sick of it damn glasses fog up i trully cant see at all. i tried everything no luck . with out my glasses if i recal my vision is like 400/20 . plus i walk to store and no matter how hard i tey to recall i found i forgot my mask. ps the teacher i talked about above had covid 19 she said most the school had it.


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## bigburly912 (Jan 21, 2021)

raggie33 said:


> im so sick of it damn glasses fog up i trully cant see at all. i tried everything no luck . with out my glasses if i recal my vision is like 400/20 . plus i walk to store and no matter how hard i tey to recall i found i forgot my mask. ps the teacher i talked about above had covid 19 she said most the school had it.



Soap and water and let them air dry if you don’t have coated lenses


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## raggie33 (Jan 21, 2021)

cool ty ill try that


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## Poppy (Jan 22, 2021)

raggie33 said:


> im so sick of it damn glasses fog up i trully cant see at all. i tried everything no luck . with out my glasses if i recal my vision is like 400/20 . plus i walk to store and no matter how hard i tey to recall i found i forgot my mask. ps the teacher i talked about above had covid 19 she said most the school had it.


Last year I had cataract surgery, and lens implants.
I now have 20/20 vision, no need for glasses.
That might be something to speak with your doctor about.


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## idleprocess (Jan 22, 2021)

Poppy said:


> Last year I had cataract surgery, and lens implants.
> I now have 20/20 vision, no need for glasses.
> That might be something to speak with your doctor about.



Masks that address the fundamental airflow problem are a more ... expedient ... fix to the problem they create.


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## turbodog (Jan 22, 2021)

I drove ~2 hours (one way) for my 1st dose couple of weeks ago. Now have good news, good news, and bad news.

Good:	my 2nd dose scheduled
Good:	not driving 2 hours again
Bad:	driving 3.5 hours this time

Think this is all a plan to stimulate the economy: gasoline, food stops, auto maintenance, etc.


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## Poppy (Jan 22, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> Masks that address the fundamental airflow problem are a more ... expedient ... fix to the problem they create.


Absolutely.
If lenses can be adapted to be worn with THIS






THere would be much less fogging, because the exhaled humid air would go out far away.


----------



## Poppy (Jan 22, 2021)

turbodog said:


> I drove ~2 hours (one way) for my 1st dose couple of weeks ago. Now have good news, good news, and bad news.
> 
> Good: my 2nd dose scheduled
> Good: not driving 2 hours again
> ...


I was much more fortunate.
I got my first dose of Moderna today, 20 minutes away.
I am already scheduled for my second dose 5 weeks later (should have been 4 weeks, as tested) at the same location.
It was at a Shop Rite pharmacy, not a hospital or mega center. 
I have faith that with time, and supplies, they will work out the kinks.


Since there has been so little information given to the general public, I don't know exactly where the clog points are. 

Regarding going for a 3.5 hour drive. A friend who appears to always be happy once said to me: "When I drive my car, I listen to my music and drive like an old man. I have driven like a maniac trying to passes everyone, and like an old man letting every maniac pass me. The difference in time is minuscule. If it takes me an hour, or two hours to get to work, I don't care. I am so busy, WHEN ELSE, do I get a chance to listen to MY music for two hours? Sometimes, I'll park my car, and wait until the piece is over before I turn it off."

That weekend I took the 1 1/2 hour drive to see my dad, in the right hand lane, and had a great ride.

Make the best of it and enjoy.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 22, 2021)

Anti fogging suggestions from the Cleveland Clinic.


----------



## raggie33 (Jan 22, 2021)

Poppy said:


> Last year I had cataract surgery, and lens implants.
> I now have 20/20 vision, no need for glasses.
> That might be something to speak with your doctor about.



thats my dream. would i still need reader glasses?


----------



## raggie33 (Jan 22, 2021)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Anti fogging suggestions from the Cleveland Clinic.



i miss cleveland i loved living there


----------



## idleprocess (Jan 23, 2021)

Poppy said:


> Absolutely.
> If lenses can be adapted to be worn with THIS
> 
> 
> ...



I got this.





Finally scored some P100 filters for my 3M half-face respirator which has the clearance for all _flavours_ of spectacles I have at my disposal.

Surgical mask is there to filter the exhale valve - because I still owe some _duty of care_ to those around me should I be an asymptomatic carrier and because some places I go require as much.

Zero fogging. Specs accommodated. _Why are people staring at me?_


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## jtr1962 (Jan 23, 2021)

I bought one of these not long after the pandemic started but haven't worn it publicly so far. Couple it with a biohazard suit and people will start freaking out. Since I do a fair amount of hobby stuff with dust and/or chemicals, I figure it would be mostly useful for that.

Didn't even think about covering the exhale valve if using it in public but that's a good idea.


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## Poppy (Jan 23, 2021)

raggie33 said:


> thats my dream. would i still need reader glasses?


There are different lenses they can put in.

I have Medicare and Medicare would have paid for a "Standard" lens, that would give distance sight, but would require glasses for reading.
I got the upgrade lens where I can see near and far, without glasses. They cost me $5200 including the surgery.

My doctor installed Synergy Interocular Lens implants. They are very good, but driving at night is challenging because of glare and a halo effect from headlights. I knew that was a possible side effect, and I got it  My cataracts caused the halo effect too, so I didn't lose anything.

I think they are regularly making improvements in lenses, so while mine were the best at the time, they may now be better.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 23, 2021)

Idleprocess, this looks bada$$. Kudos to you for thinking of others by adding the surgical mask for exhaled particle capture.


----------



## idleprocess (Jan 23, 2021)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Idleprocess, this looks bada$$. Kudos to you for thinking of others by adding the surgical mask for exhaled particle capture.



Local makerspace requires it so I just make it a standard part of the kit. I did the same with my more casual setup.

I've yet to wear this getup out in public, however from informal testing around the house it performs better in terms of breathing effort and of course _zero_ lens fogging. Things get really bad I just might wear it - stops unwanted conversations I imagine.


----------



## SCEMan (Jan 23, 2021)

Poppy said:


> My doctor installed Synergy Interocular Lens implants. They are very good, but driving at night is challenging because of glare and a halo effect from headlights. I knew that was a possible side effect, and I got it  My cataracts caused the halo effect too, so I didn't lose anything.



Hmmm. I had cataract lens replacement surgery in 2011 and 2012 and have had no night driving glare/halo issues... so far.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 23, 2021)

Poppy said:


> Last year I had cataract surgery, and lens implants.
> I now have 20/20 vision, no need for glasses.
> That might be something to speak with your doctor about.


How's your close-up vision? Can you read without reading glasses? Not that I was ever considering corrective surgery but I've heard one draw back if you're corrected to 20/20 is that your near vision suffers. Since I use my near vision 95% of the time this seems like it would be a bad trade off for me. I don't care that I can't read street signs while riding my bike until I'm almost on top of them. I can still see what I need to see well enough to not hit it. I like not needing glasses for reading or fine electronics work.


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## Poppy (Jan 23, 2021)

jtr1962,
My close up vision is fine. I can read standard text easily. I can read fine print if it isn't too small. I have found that I sometimes us a magnifier app on my phone, or take a picture of it and then zoom in for really fine print.

I discussed with my doc the possibility of using two standard lenses, one for near, and one for far distance. My brain could figure out how to use the left eye for close up, and the right eye for distance. The problem with that - I would lose stereo-topic vision which is important for judging the speed of oncoming traffic. He advised against it.

Something I found interesting is that as my cataracts matured, my close up vision improved to the point that I didn't need reading glasses anymore, but my distance vision degraded. Apparently cataracts cause near sightedness.

edit:
He did tell me that he could put lenses in with different diopters so that I could choose near, mid, or long distance vision, and then use glasses to compensate.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 23, 2021)

I'm starting to think that we need a new thread for cataract patients. :wave:


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## nbp (Jan 23, 2021)

Haha, agree. Let’s get back around to our topic. If everyone can see it. [emoji38]


----------



## orbital (Jan 24, 2021)

+

Listened to our new commander/chief say we have the 'tools to fix the economy' & beat this virus.

*Yes == Open everything & give people their jobs back. *They'll have earned money to spend & it supports the tax base. It's called economics.*


*The overall herd immunity & vaccinations are only increasing,, with the understanding there will always be mutations & new strain vaccination*.


*


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## scout24 (Jan 24, 2021)

Orbital- To quote the person you mentioned, "C'mon, man!!!" Less politics more virus, please...


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## turbodog (Jan 24, 2021)

orbital said:


> ...
> 
> Yes == Open ...



Doubt you meant it this way, but double equals signs actually denotes NOT equals.


----------



## Poppy (Jan 24, 2021)

It may be wishful thinking, or that *I* am not following the stats closely enough, but I *think* over the past week the number of NEW cases has dropped off nationally, slightly. Hopefully we have peaked. BUT the number of new cases has increased so rapidly this year, the number of hospitalizations may not yet have caught up, and the following number of deaths.

Let's hope that the hospitals can keep up, and eventually catch a breath. In some areas, it is fairly likely that some hospitals will have to ration care, which will drive up the death rate. Scary!


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## orbital (Jan 24, 2021)

+

Just the good old fashion *Open 

*
_______________________________
so then === is *Super Open*


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## SCEMan (Jan 24, 2021)

I'm getting the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine today at the LA Fairplex about 3 miles away. Got lucky registering for it as this state ranks last in inoculations. Don't know when I'll ever get the 2nd dose.


----------



## ledbetter (Jan 24, 2021)

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/magazine/covid-aftereffects.html?referringSource=articleShare

Very thorough report on “Long COVID.”


----------



## Poppy (Jan 24, 2021)

I got my Moderna shot on Friday at a supermarket pharmacy. I scheduled it about a month ago, and before I left, they had already scheduled my second shot appointment 4.5 weeks later, Feb. 24.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 24, 2021)

Poppy said:


> It may be wishful thinking, or that *I* am not following the stats closely enough, but I *think* over the past week the number of NEW cases has dropped off nationally, slightly. Hopefully we have peaked. BUT the number of new cases has increased so rapidly this year, the number of hospitalizations may not yet have caught up, and the following number of deaths.
> 
> Let's hope that the hospitals can keep up, and eventually catch a breath. In some areas, it is fairly likely that some hospitals will have to ration care, which will drive up the death rate. Scary!


You don't have to guess. Just look at the model. So far it has a very good track record. Thankfully, it looks like we're close to peaking in terms of the number of daily deaths and new infections but we're several weeks away from seeing a notable downward trend. For the next few weeks daily death and hospital use will probably more or less remain constant. After that it starts declining. Slowly if we insist on opening things back up, more rapidly if we use masks and have rapid vaccine rollout. The projection only goes until May 1 but if enough people get vaccinated we might have very few daily deaths by the summer. I long for the time when the authorities say it's been 2 or 3 months since the last confirmed covid-19 case in the US.


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## turbodog (Jan 24, 2021)

Poppy said:


> It may be wishful thinking, or that *I* am not following the stats closely enough, but I *think* over the past week the number of NEW cases has dropped off nationally, slightly. Hopefully we have peaked. BUT the number of new cases has increased so rapidly this year, the number of hospitalizations may not yet have caught up, and the following number of deaths.
> 
> Let's hope that the hospitals can keep up, and eventually catch a breath. In some areas, it is fairly likely that some hospitals will have to ration care, which will drive up the death rate. Scary!



All my data show we have hit another peak, #2, counting the one back in July/Aug, and are retreating from it.

My prediction, unless things drastically change, is that this is the last one given that 1) vaccines are rolling out and 2) we have a long time before another 'spreader' event comes along.

The prior peaks had us back at/above the peak level in ~2 months. However, this time, in 2 months, between a building # of recovered & vaccinated people, we should be in good shape.

This is not saying we won't see state/regional/city peaks (re: capitol sedition people), but overall we are finally 'on the mend'.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 24, 2021)

Canadian researchers discover existing oral drug shows promise in treating Covid patients.


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## markr6 (Jan 25, 2021)

I wonder if we're at a plateau, or better?

1. The people that have been staying locked in at home this long aren't going to change now, so they continue to be safe
2. Those very susceptible got it and unfortunately succumbed to the virus
3. The rest of us going about our daily business either got it and didn't even know, or dealt with the symptoms for a few days. I had a few co-workers go to the local pharmacy for a $25 antibody test and amazingly (or not) most did have it in the past without knowing.
4. And now we can start adding in those who are vaccinated...albeit a slow as molasses pace.


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## turbodog (Jan 25, 2021)

markr6 said:


> I wonder if we're at a plateau, or better?
> 
> 1. The people that have been staying locked in at home this long aren't going to change now, so they continue to be safe
> 2. Those very susceptible got it and unfortunately succumbed to the virus
> ...



The US is at about 6% vaccinated. Adding the 10% confirmed infected (and maybe the same # asymptomatic) gives us ~25%. Long way to herd immunity of ~80%. 

Vaccination started ~6 weeks ago... so we are 4% a month give or take. I expect this will pickup as we get better at this. But overall, I think the worse is behind us.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 25, 2021)

Also, treatments keep getting better and better. My best guess is we'll be dealing with this in one form or another for at least several years, but it'll drop below "pandemic" levels within six months and stay there. There might be annual vaccinations for a while to deal with mutations. There will almost certainly be localized shut downs to deal with flare ups. But hopefully the days of widespread shut downs, major community spread, and hundreds or thousands of daily deaths will be over in some months.


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## orbital (Jan 25, 2021)

+

High intensity UV lights retrofitted into ventilation systems in building/planes ect.. will likely be fitted into our world.

_Was going to invest some in Honeywell last May and didn't, just couldn't swing it at the time__ (now I'm pissed about it)  
That's the kind of thing __Honeywell does.
_


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 25, 2021)

It looks like filtered far-UVC 222nm lights might be a winner if they can get the costs down. The eximer lamps are more exotic than conventional mercury-based UVC 254nm lamps but they have one major advantage: continuous disinfection in occupied areas with no harm to humans or animals.

Update - Just found an article about a company that claims to have invented the first solid state far-UVC lamp. I don't know if this is real or vaporware though.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 25, 2021)

Indeed. I think any companies doing R&D for far UVC lights will be big winners. Continuously disinfecting public spaces will not only mitigate future pandemics, but also have a huge impact on the annual cold and flu seasons. It's really a win-win, and once installed, the operating costs are tiny relative to the benefits.


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## adamlau (Jan 25, 2021)

orbital said:


> High intensity UV lights retrofitted into ventilation systems in building/planes ect.. will likely be fitted into our world.\


This is something we have seen in residential construction for at least the past ten years. I have two Steril-Aire RSE II installed (one per coil per FAU). Was meant to reduce coil maintenance, limited as a germicidal measure in the home. I had the same RSE II units installed in my previous home. American Ultraviolet sells similar units.


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## turbodog (Jan 26, 2021)

I'm going contrarian on the UV predictions. Between infections and vaccinations getting a handle on it... that addresses the short term problem.

Mutations almost universally make stuff less lethal. And people are universally lazy... so we will ignore the UV stuff except for fringe adoption.

Even then, UV lights decline in output... so unless maintained/replaced they will quit working. And I really question the efficacy of the net effects of the lights due to airflow being multi pass and not single pass filtered.


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## WarriorOfLight (Jan 26, 2021)

I don't think that UV light that "disinfect" the air will really result in a significant decrease of the infections at all. It is only a way to make additional money.

The only way is that this pandemic will be stopped if ~60-70% were infected or vaccinated. Than the probability will rise that infection chains will break.

Actually it does not looks like the infection rates are going down. Even the infection rates in China are going up (at least the Hopkins website says this), and we all do not know how this numbers were filtered in China. This shows to all of us that even in political systems were you can do almost everything with the citizens the pandemic can not really be stopped.


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## markr6 (Jan 26, 2021)

Without really watching the numbers daily, the main thing that signaled to me things were improving was my local news site. They stopped putting the big "XXXX new cases; XX additional deaths" for my state on their home page. Two-thousand some cases and just a couple deaths, if any, isn't sexy enough for that big banner like 6000+ was. Hope it holds.


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## orbital (Jan 26, 2021)

+

Part of the UV air sterilization is the effect on sentiment, if people _feel _their school, plane, business, whatever is even slightly safer,
it becomes a small step to backtonormalness.
Say Walmart has a sign showing air sterilization in progress ,, you may feel a bit better about things
& for Walmart, maybe buy some more stuff. 

It's a step toward positive *sentiment*, which is not a terrible thing & not terribly tricky.


the symbol {***}


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## raggie33 (Jan 26, 2021)

im watching outbreak. its such a scary movie it scared me even before covid 19! imagine being the guys who had to bomb the town. i for sure rather be a town member then the guys in the plane


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## turbodog (Jan 26, 2021)

raggie33 said:


> im watching outbreak. its such a scary movie it scared me even before covid 19! imagine being the guys who had to bomb the town. i for sure rather be a town member then the guys in the plane



Well that's an interesting take on that movie, for sure.


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## WarriorOfLight (Jan 27, 2021)

raggie33 said:


> im watching outbreak. its such a scary movie it scared me even before covid 19! imagine being the guys who had to bomb the town. i for sure rather be a town member then the guys in the plane


Than I recommend Contagion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contagion_(2011_film)), that is in most parts exactly what happened at the moment. But yes, also this movie has some "Hollywood specific" parts, but no bombs and no military stuff at all.
The reality level for Contagion may be at 60-70%, for Outbreak I would say it is less ...

And regarding Outbreak movie: The idea of an Ebola strain that has a higher infection rate is not realistic. The base problem with Ebola is that between "infection - symtoms - dead" the timespan is far to short. That is the reason why there are still people in Africa and big cities are not complete empty. And there were Ebola outbreaks even in larger cities...

A wide spreading virus must have:
- high infection rate
- infection between human - human
- long enough timespan between infection and the first symtoms to has the possibility of infecting enough people.

That is the reason why Ebola was never a virus for a pandemic that we currently have. Also the outbreak of viruses in the past always had one piece missing. We had swine flew, bird flew, SARS - 2003 ... and so on. There was always at least one piece missing.


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## orbital (Jan 27, 2021)

WarriorOfLight said:


> ..The base problem with Ebola is that between "infection - symtoms - dead" the timespan is far to short. That is the reason why there are still people in Africa and big cities are not complete empty. And there were Ebola outbreaks even in larger cities...



+

Yes Ebola was/is too good of a virus in that it killed its victims just too quickly. There was not the duration to spread the disease, so the virus literally killed itself.
I read *The Hot Zone* when it very first came out (like 25 years ago), that's the biggest thing I took away from that book.


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## turbodog (Jan 27, 2021)

Doesn't J&J make Ebola vaccine now?


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## turbodog (Jan 27, 2021)

Also, FYI about vaccine registration, specifically the 2nd dose.

If your state is like mine, all doses are sched through one main website. Go there and get shot #1 lined up.

Now the state "said" they were reserving 2nd dose stockpile, but 2nd dose schedules were always unavailable. And as I'm getting reasonably close to dose #2 I was concerned.

They had locked out scheduling until you got close to the date. I confirmed by going into the portal and entering a dose #1 date further back in the past. All of a sudden, thousands of slots appeared in the scheduling board.


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## SCEMan (Jan 28, 2021)

turbodog said:


> Also, FYI about vaccine registration, specifically the 2nd dose.
> 
> If your state is like mine, all doses are sched through one main website. Go there and get shot #1 lined up.
> 
> ...



Ditto in my disaster of a state. Dead last in inoculations with a witless governor who'll hopefully be recalled. I'm supposed to get my 2nd dose about the middle of February but it doesn't look likely anything will be available in the foreseeable future.


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## Monocrom (Jan 28, 2021)

SCEMan said:


> Ditto in my disaster of a state. Dead last in inoculations with a witless governor who'll hopefully be recalled. I'm supposed to get my 2nd dose about the middle of February but it doesn't look likely anything will be available in the foreseeable future.



Unfortunately, that's how it looks like it. I know a ton of folks who have gotten the 1st injection, but have no clue when they'll get the 2nd one.


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## markr6 (Jan 28, 2021)

Monocrom said:


> Unfortunately, that's how it looks like it. I know a ton of folks who have gotten the 1st injection, but have no clue when they'll get the 2nd one.




Fauci and crew were actually discussing this as a strategy a while back. Whether to spread the first one out to more people or wait until both shots were given to a smaller group. I wonder if they actually decided on this, or if it just happened naturally based on production limitations?


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## Monocrom (Jan 28, 2021)

markr6 said:


> Fauci and crew were actually discussing this as a strategy a while back. Whether to spread the first one out to more people or wait until both shots were given to a smaller group. I wonder if they actually decided on this, or if it just happened naturally based on production limitations?



I mean, the solution is rather obvious. If the vaccine needs to be given in 2 shots to actually work, then there's no point giving everyone one; and then waiting for the 2nd one to be ready. You're going to have a ton of people who'll get the 1st, and then (knowing human nature) they're not going to come back to get the 2nd one _when_ it's finally available. So all you do is waste massive amounts of the first shot.


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## Lynx_Arc (Jan 28, 2021)

I've read somewhere that some studies have suggested that waiting longer for the second shot on a certain vaccine increased its effectiveness considerably.


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## SCEMan (Jan 28, 2021)

Poppy said:


> I got my Moderna shot on Friday at a supermarket pharmacy. I scheduled it about a month ago, and before I left, they had already scheduled my second shot appointment 4.5 weeks later, Feb. 24.



Congrats. That's the way it's supposed to work.


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## turbodog (Jan 28, 2021)

Couple of things.

1. Think there was a misunderstanding of my post. In short, don't be discouraged if you see NO available 2nd shots until AFTER 2 weeks have passed. Once I hit that date, there were hundreds/thousands of slots available. I should have zero problem getting shot #2 on time.

2. From the literature I read, Moderna is ~50% effective after 1 dose, increasing to 98% after dose #2. Given the Moderna and Pfizer use similar tech I would expect similar effectiveness.


----------



## Poppy (Jan 28, 2021)

LOL... all this haggeling drives me nuts!

The newscasters blame the rollout of the states, yet the states that have set up large sites can't get enough vaccines and they have to close the sites until they get another allotment. It has been stated that they are frustrated because they don't know when, nor how large of an allotment they will get.

The Feds say, they do not have a stock-pile to release, but do keep a 2-3 day supply in reserve. I believe they are talking 10 million doses a week. That's about 3-4 million in reserve.

Earlier President elect said that he wanted to release what was in reserve for the second dose, in order to get more people at least get the first dose and as production ramped up, more people can get the second dose. Fauci stated that he didn't think that was a good idea, he would prefer to administer the doses in the manner in which they were tested and approved.

A few days after the President elect became President, they reported that there was no second dose held in reserve by the previous administration.

100 million doses a day for a hundred days.

When the doses are available, and there is the demand, the states have administered 150 million doses one day and 160 million doses the next day.

Many of the interviewees of the news channels speak to the need to get the vaccines into the "hardest hit neighborhoods" and the need to "educate them to reduce their resistance to getting vaccinated." 

There is talk that some people in the "hardest hit neighborhoods" complain that they are being used as guinea pigs and are therefore resisting getting injected. 

My position (although not an educated one) is:
Make the vaccine available in the hardest hit areas, but don't go crazy trying to convince them to get vaccinated. Then: Let all the people who are willing to wait in line for 3-6 hours, who don't need to be coerced, and have no conspiracy theory/axe to grind, get it. Then bring it back to the people who already had first shot at it. Maybe it won't take so much convincing.


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## turbodog (Jan 28, 2021)

Poppy said:


> ... Maybe it won't take so much convincing.



Nothing personal, but in my best gen-x manner: 'whatever'

A very close family member of mine is over ~100 people at a HOSPITAL. They can't even get those folks to take it... the ones that go into covid positive rooms ALL DAY LONG.

Push this thing out asap to those that want it. Eventually the others will either come around or get infected. Either path leads to herd immunity more or less.

Besides... overall it seems like there's not enough to go around right now anyway.

EDIT:

Update: this person's department had acceptance rates in low single digits. The entire hospital's acceptance rate is only 35%, and that's directly from COO today.


----------



## PhotonWrangler (Jan 28, 2021)

I fear that those who are reluctant to get it will look at the recipients who feel sick-ish for a day or two afterwards and think that they got the 'Rona from the vaccination and will be even more reluctant to take it themselves. This will be an uphill battle for those people.


----------



## idleprocess (Jan 28, 2021)

Per TX's _presently-defined_ phases _(TL;DR best I can tell - *1A*: healthcare workers | *1B*: the elderly and immunocompromised)_ I don't qualify. I suspect my SO - who teaches high school - might qualify for the next phase if occupational exposure is a qualifier. I suspect I'll be sometime after that - only getting to skip ahead of _genpop_ if there's a critical infrastructure exemption.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 28, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> Per TX's _presently-defined_ phases _(TL;DR best I can tell - *1A*: healthcare workers | *1B*: the elderly and immunocompromised)_ I don't qualify. I suspect my SO - who teaches high school - might qualify for the next phase if occupational exposure is a qualifier. I suspect I'll be sometime after that - only getting to skip ahead of _genpop_ if there's a critical infrastructure exemption.



See if you can drive to an adjacent state. Dad drove from AL to FL for his, only 38 miles though.


----------



## bykfixer (Jan 30, 2021)

Right on schedule, politics has entered the vaccine roll out in my state. Those awful "haves" are getting theirs before those poor down trodden "have nots" according to the local press.

According to the press a week ago nobody was getting them. The chief executive of the state gives a speech and "poof" a bunch of vaccines appear, just like that. 10,000. It seems a large medical facility was sitting on 10,000 to have as the second dose. 

In the capital city on one side there's a mass testing station set up a few days a week and that's wildy popular. On the other side of town is a vaccine giving site and there are more cars in the McDonalds drive through at lunch time than there are folks getting the shot. The testing site is in a fairly affluent area. The vaccine sight a not so affluent community. 

Now at this time the criteria for receiving the shot is pretty narrow so at least in the capital city many of those eligable who want it already got the shot. In the not so affluent community many rely on public transportation yet the city bus does not go all the way to the shot issueing facility but stops about a mile away. Sadly that means those in that community 70 and over are missing out simply because it's winter, it's cold and they're old. It's also an area where the virus has run amock in the community due to crowded conditions. 

So in effect, at least in the capital city the press is correct. Yet sadly those casting all of the blame don't seem to have a desire to lend a hand in the matter. Instead a church up the road a piece has jumped in and offers rides at no cost. The other day I saw a pair of tour busses loaded with elderly folks pull into the parking lot where they were issuing covid shots. That made my day to see that.


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## KITROBASKIN (Jan 30, 2021)

Completed the "Vault" saliva test for COVID as required by my employer. It is a condition of employment. I was required by Vault to agree to be tested and *treated(?)* by them. During the video recorded Zoom Meet, the medical attendant did not ask me to cough before expelling saliva. When I remarked that I did not have that much spit available, her advice of smelling a lemon helped a lot in producing the substantial amount of saliva required to fill the tube. The cap to close the tube has a blue (mouthwash like) fluid that mixes with the saliva when tightened to preserve the sample. After sealing the mailing bag, the Vault person instructed me to use a tiny square alcohol prep pad to sanitize the outer surface of the shipping bag, being careful to not smear the shipping codes. The sample must be returned to a UPS store within 24 hours. Label on the inner package that held the saliva sample kit said Made in Mexico (ok by me, just used to seeing medical supplies made in USA), and that it is for research purposes only, *not for diagnosis*. I've got no beef being tested in of itself, just think it a waste of money to use this type of test on the healthy, symptom free. Test came back negative.

Our New Mexico state governor is now saying students can go back to school in hybrid mode, including middle and high school, though local districts decide for their schools.


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## idleprocess (Jan 30, 2021)

turbodog said:


> See if you can drive to an adjacent state. Dad drove from AL to FL for his, only 38 miles though.



Near-adjacent states seem to be in a similar spot WRT progressing past phase 1. Most states' Phase 2 includes critical infrastructure employees alongside other non-healthcare/non-first responder essential workers thus I expect that's when I'll be able to schedule a vaccination.


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## bigburly912 (Jan 31, 2021)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I fear that those who are reluctant to get it will look at the recipients who feel sick-ish for a day or two afterwards and think that they got the 'Rona from the vaccination and will be even more reluctant to take it themselves. This will be an uphill battle for those people.



What about those that are reluctant to get it seeing congressman who have had both doses catching it?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/stephen-lynch-covid-19-positive-vaccine/


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## turbodog (Jan 31, 2021)

I can't pull enough detail from the timeline...

Homeboy could have been exposed after dose1, gotten dose2, then manifested positive. Or he could simply be one of those that slipped through.

And if they are that easily distracted... it just leaves more doses for rational folks.


----------



## bigburly912 (Jan 31, 2021)

Don’t think logically. You have a bad tendency to do that. Think like an American crowd of people that already think if they get the vaccine they will start crapping out alien hybrid satan demon spawn. They see a high profile person catch it after getting vaccinated. How do they react.


----------



## PhotonWrangler (Jan 31, 2021)

Those people won't understand or care that the vaccines are 95% effective, not 100%. Also those reinfected people might have caught one of the variants for which the vaccine might be less than 95% effective. Or they didn't get their second shot early enough. And some percentage of those people probably caught the seasonal flu and didn't get tested to rule out Covid-19. So many valid ways to explain this.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 31, 2021)

The best messaging to get out to people is that vaccines aren't a panacea. Maybe we can use the fact some people who got vaccinated still caught covid to our advantage. We need to stress mask wearing, social distancing, and more importantly not going out unless you absolutely have to. By doing all these things, we reduce the spread of the virus, the chance of further mutations, and we give the vaccine a chance to achieve herd immunity. If we play our cards right, while vaccinating 250 to 300 million people by summer, we might be mostly out of this thing by fall. If variants resurface, we can give booster shots before they have a chance to spread. If we go on like we're doing, with many reluctant to get vaccinated, we might not get out of this at all. Hundreds of thousands of annual covid deaths could be the new normal, along with permanent mask requirements, and the end to public venues like stadiums. That's the bleak future which awaits us if we don't start taking this more seriously.


----------



## turbodog (Jan 31, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> ... If variants resurface...



Given the inevitability of mutations, people's lack of proper action, and constraints/logistics this thing will never go away. That said, mutations push towards less lethal... this has already happened with many pathogens.

Things will improve eventually. Short term: vaccines + recovered more or less gives herd immunity. Long term: mutations will weaken it while making it more infectious... which will tend to further weaken it, and so on.

Covid's real damage was revealing those you *thought* to be smart/caring for the person they truly were. Things will never be the same.


----------



## jtr1962 (Jan 31, 2021)

turbodog said:


> Covid's real damage was revealing those you *thought* to be smart/caring for the person they truly were. Things will never be the same.


Sad but true. I've heard of people who are no longer on speaking terms on account of everything that's happened during the last year.

My thoughts on the virus long term are similar to yours. The common cold probably started out as something this lethal, then eventually mutated into something which is more an annoyance than a danger.


----------



## raggie33 (Jan 31, 2021)

how safe is grocery shoping now? i wear them cheap mask i forgot there name but they come in 50 packs. i need deprestly to get food. i no longer can afford shoping online .is it safe to go if i clean hands before i enter store and after?


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## jtr1962 (Jan 31, 2021)

raggie33 said:


> how safe is grocery shoping now? i wear them cheap mask i forgot there name but they come in 50 packs. i need deprestly to get food. i no longer can afford shoping online .is it safe to go if i clean hands before i enter store and after?


Here's what I do:

1) I bring a shopping cart so I can get as much as possible, versus hand carrying the bags home.
2) I only go to the store about every other week.
3) I go about 30 minutes before closing, when the store is nearly empty.
4) I'm in and out in probably 20 minutes, 30 tops.
5) I wash down everything which comes in bottles, cans, and plastic bags.
6) For stuff which comes in cardboard boxes, there's usually a plastic bag with the stuff inside the cardboard box. So I throw the box out, and wash down the plastic bag.
7) The few things which can't easily be washed down, like stuff in cardboard boxes with no inner bag, I wipe down with paper towels and alcohol.
8) I wash my clothes and take a shower when I'm done.

All of the above isn't as time-consuming as it sounds. In general, it takes me two hours from the time I leave for the store until I'm done with my shower.

I've long been in the habit of washing cans and bottles even pre-pandemic. Grocery stores aren't the cleanest places going. So really, this isn't that much extra effort above and beyond what I've done for years. Probably a good idea getting rid of the cardboard boxes for most things right away as roaches are known to hide in them. As you probably know, NYC is the cockroach (and rat) capital of the world.


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## raggie33 (Jan 31, 2021)

good advice ty ill be so glad when all this is over


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## nbp (Jan 31, 2021)

Experts have stated that most of that washing and disinfecting is not really necessary. The airborne particles are vastly more likely to be the vector of infection. The first couple points about going less frequently and going when the store is most likely near empty are by far the most effective things you can do. Even then, walking past someone for 2 seconds doesn’t seem to be especially hazardous as is evidenced by the updated definitions of “exposure” the CDC has been using lately. 

This past week my grandma tested positive for C19. She apparently was feeling a little off for a couple days then last Monday she spiked a fever and felt quite ill. Tuesday my mom took her to the doctor where they gave her a C19 test, and did a chest X-Ray since she had some crackling in her lungs. Due to her age and health issues I have felt this past year that if she got it she would probably die. Amazingly the X-Ray did not show pneumonia, but she did test COVID positive. They sent her home and set her up with an appointment on Thursday for an IV Infusion of bamlanivimab, which is a monoclonal antibody treatment. It is not FDA approved but like the ones from Regeneron it was granted an emergency use authorization for those who qualify for it. She went in for a couple of hours on Thursday to get that treatment, and by Saturday was feeling significantly better. So far so good - she might womp this thing significantly better than I ever expected! 

Mom told me though that even after she tested positive and told the other old timers she had seen in her senior living apartment about it, they seemed to carry on as normal. To my knowledge they did not arrange to get tested and are not quarantining. So, as we have mentioned many times since this started, you can make all the rules and mandates you want at all levels of government, but basically they all rely on people doing what they need to do to protect themselves. In my experience even many high risk people do not do much to protect themselves, so what are you gonna do? If people say Oh if only the government did this or that we would have almost no deaths.... I don’t totally believe that. They could have been reduced, certainly, but barring fines or arrests people will largely do what they want. Plus, I believe some 150k of the deaths were in long term care facilities, which are already the most locked down protected places they could be. It isn’t as if those people are hanging out at bars and parties, so I wonder if a lot of those deaths were going to happen no matter what was done. The challenge is we have a fantastically large population of high risk people in this country. Some 50 million people over 65 yrs, and tens of millions with diabetes, heart disease and more. It’s really hard to protect such a huge quantity of elderly and sickly people.


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## Tejasandre (Jan 31, 2021)

Getting my parents & my vaccination #1 tomorrow. San Antonio Texas. 800 calls over 2 days to the hotline & 56 minutes on hold when I finally got through. Moderns is what they have.


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## raggie33 (Jan 31, 2021)

walmart is by far the worse some reason i see most of the unmaskers there .


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## raggie33 (Jan 31, 2021)

the worse part is walmart is a way less far walk.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 31, 2021)

nbp said:


> Experts have stated that most of that washing and disinfecting is not really necessary.


Keep in mind I was already doing a lot of this pre-pandemic because containers and such are often visibly dirty. Even if it's not of much help protecting against covid, it protects against other possible pathogens.



> The airborne particles are vastly more likely to be the vector of infection. The first couple points about going less frequently and going when the store is most likely near empty are by far the most effective things you can do. Even then, walking past someone for 2 seconds doesn’t seem to be especially hazardous as is evidenced by the updated definitions of “exposure” the CDC has been using lately.


I don't freak out if someone is near me for a few seconds. I just hold me breath until I'm away from them. If everyone's wearing masks, that's already very helpful.



> This past week my grandma tested positive for C19. She apparently was feeling a little off for a couple days then last Monday she spiked a fever and felt quite ill. Tuesday my mom took her to the doctor where they gave her a C19 test, and did a chest X-Ray since she had some crackling in her lungs. Due to her age and health issues I have felt this past year that if she got it she would probably die. Amazingly the X-Ray did not show pneumonia, but she did test COVID positive. They sent her home and set her up with an appointment on Thursday for an IV Infusion of bamlanivimab, which is a monoclonal antibody treatment. It is not FDA approved but like the ones from Regeneron it was granted an emergency use authorization for those who qualify for it. She went in for a couple of hours on Thursday to get that treatment, and by Saturday was feeling significantly better. So far so good - she might womp this thing significantly better than I ever expected!


Some people do a lot better than others. I know type O negative blood, which I have, confers some advantage. So does the amount of virus you're exposed to. Those exposed to large amounts of virus tend to get sicker.



> Mom told me though that even after she tested positive and told the other old timers she had seen in her senior living apartment about it, they seemed to carry on as normal. To my knowledge they did not arrange to get tested and are not quarantining. So, as we have mentioned many times since this started, you can make all the rules and mandates you want at all levels of government, but basically they all rely on people doing what they need to do to protect themselves. In my experience even many high risk people do not do much to protect themselves, so what are you gonna do? If people say Oh if only the government did this or that we would have almost no deaths.... I don’t totally believe that. They could have been reduced, certainly, but barring fines or arrests people will largely do what they want. Plus, I believe some 150k of the deaths were in long term care facilities, which are already the most locked down protected places they could be. It isn’t as if those people are hanging out at bars and parties, so I wonder if a lot of those deaths were going to happen no matter what was done. The challenge is we have a fantastically large population of high risk people in this country. Some 50 million people over 65 yrs, and tens of millions with diabetes, heart disease and more. It’s really hard to protect such a huge quantity of elderly and sickly people.


The one area where government could have been most effective is preventing the disease from even entering the country in large numbers. Australia and New Zealand successfully did this. So did many Asian countries. If the number of cases is small, testing and contact tracing can prevent major community spread. So a system of travel bans (starting in late December/early January), with testing and contact tracing available as soon as possible, would probably have mostly kept the virus out. Once the virus entered in large quantities, sure, thousands of deaths were probably inevitable regardless.

Another point to remember is our system of 50 state governments each doing their own thing works against us. In the EU you had a similar situation of each country doing their own thing. China, to their credit, effectively controlled it after the first major outbreak, although I'm skeptical their death toll was only in the 4,000s. Probably 10 to 20 times that number but still remarkable given their population. Their response was more successful because of their system of government. Now I'm not suggesting we emulate that across the board, but I think a top-down system for major health emergencies would be something to consider going forward. In other words, if people like Fauci determine we're in a pandemic, they decide what measures are needed, and their word is law across all 50 states until the emergency passes. That might actually not be a hard sell. It gets local politicians off the hook. It also allows much more rapid, uniform response. Sure, in the end voluntary compliance is still part of it, even in places with authoritarian governments like China. But if the messaging is uniform, it's a lot easier to get people to comply. Imagine if there had been no controversy about masks or other facets of the pandemic? We might still have five figures of deaths, but that's better than being well on the way to half a million.


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## Poppy (Jan 31, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> Here's what I do:
> 
> 1) I bring a shopping cart so I can get as much as possible, versus hand carrying the bags home.
> 2) I only go to the store about every other week.
> ...


Initially, I followed the same technique, and kept at it for a number of months, there were some variances though.

Considering that we were told that the virus became unstable while resting on most surfaces, within 24 hours, I often left non-perishables in the trunk of my car overnight before bringing them in. I still often do that. Not so much, now that we have freezing temps outside.

We used a sterile technique, where we cleaned the table. Then put everything either on the floor or the left hand side of the table, after cleaning it got moved to the right side of the table.

In my area, stores still offer "Senior hours". Generally the store is less occupied during them (first thing in the morning). Also any airborne virii may be more than 24 hours old, and inactive, more so than those later in the evening.

I typically wear a surgical mask. It is hard to believe that it is effective. I can walk down the soap isle and smell, all the soaps, or near the flower section, and smell the roses. Yet if I wear my half face respirator... I smell NOTHING! 

If things get worse around here, or I become more concerned, I'll wear the respirator. If I have to put a filter over the exhaust valve, that's not a biggie.

Back to raggie.
I was in the home depot last week and they had a couple of half face respirators in stock, and a few replacement filter cartridges in stock.

I believe they are significantly better than what you are wearing.


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## turbodog (Jan 31, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> ...
> 3) I go about 30 minutes before closing, when the store is nearly empty.
> ...



Why go after people have breathed in there all day long? Go when the doors open. C-19 appears to be quite hard to transmit via surface contamination. If it were... I would probably have it already... being in IT... I touch keyboards, desktops, and mice all day long.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 31, 2021)

turbodog said:


> Why go after people have breathed in there all day long? Go when the doors open. C-19 appears to be quite hard to transmit via surface contamination. If it were... I would probably have it already... being in IT... I touch keyboards, desktops, and mice all day long.


Because I'm not a morning person. It was hard enough for me to get up early when I was being paid for it. Even then, I hated it. Besides, I'm not sure the store is necessarily empty early AM. I do know that peak times seem to be between 3PM and 6PM. After that, it tapers off a lot. By the time I get there around 8:15, the store has already had a lot fewer customers for probably close to 2 hours.


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## KITROBASKIN (Feb 1, 2021)

nbp said:


> They sent her home and set her up with an appointment on Thursday for an IV Infusion of bamlanivimab, which is a monoclonal antibody treatment. It is not FDA approved but like the ones from Regeneron it was granted an emergency use authorization for those who qualify for it. She went in for a couple of hours on Thursday to get that treatment, and by Saturday was feeling significantly better. So far so good - she might womp this thing significantly better than I ever expected!



https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-antibody-eli-lilly-phase3-data/


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## turbodog (Feb 1, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> ...
> 
> The one area where government could have been most effective is preventing the disease from even entering the country in large numbers. ...



It was already here if the red cross research is any indicator.

https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/press-release/2020/study-suggests-possible-new-covid-19-timeline-in-the-us.html


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## bykfixer (Feb 3, 2021)

I just watched a construction worker wearing a mask outdoors walk out of a porta-potty, wash his hands with sanatizer then dry them on his pants legs, then pull his mask down and wipe his nose. 

Was that practicing proper virus spread prevention?


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## turbodog (Feb 3, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> I just watched a construction worker wearing a mask outdoors walk out of a porta-potty, wash his hands with sanatizer then dry them on his pants legs, then pull his mask down and wipe his nose.
> 
> Was that practicing proper virus spread prevention?



Absolutely. The germs from his pants leg are tough, they will fight off any covid germs that get past the mask.

In good news, infection numbers continue to drop as well as deaths (to a lesser degree).


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## jtr1962 (Feb 3, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> I just watched a construction worker wearing a mask outdoors walk out of a porta-potty, wash his hands with sanatizer then dry them on his pants legs, then pull his mask down and wipe his nose.
> 
> Was that practicing proper virus spread prevention?


Honestly, people who have to protect themselves all day should just be given half-face or even full-face respirators. They're a lot more comfortable than masks. More importantly, they're more protective and less subject to "user error".

Maybe that construction worker should have squirted some sanitizer up his nose before wiping it with his hands. It's no mystery why this thing has spread like crazy when you see what's going on.


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## Poppy (Feb 3, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> I just watched a construction worker wearing a mask outdoors walk out of a porta-potty, wash his hands with sanatizer then dry them on his pants legs, then pull his mask down and wipe his nose.
> 
> Was that practicing proper virus spread prevention?


Hmmm, there is additional information needed.
How did he wipe his nose?
Did he do a single swipe by pinching both nostrils between his thumb and index finger? And did he then wipe them off on the front of his pant leg?

Did he swipe his nostrils onto the back of his index finger like he was playing a violin? And then wipe his finger off onto the back of his pant leg?

When he dried his hands with sanitizer, did he wipe them onto the front or back of his pant legs?

Did he use a LOT of sanitizer?

_____________________________________

For alcohol based sanitizer it must be wet for ( I don't know 15-30 seconds?) in contact with the virus.

Did he allow his hands to stay wet long enough before he dried them?

After wiping his nose, did he dry his finger/s on his pants? If so, did he dry them where he left some residue of sanitizer? Was his pants wet enough with sanitizer to kill any remnant of virii on his hands? Probably not.

________________________________

IMO, after using the potti, and cleaning his hands, he probably protected himself as much as possible.

Wiping his nose with sanitized hands, was ok for him, but maybe not for others.

If he didn't clean his hands again, and came into physical contact with others, especially by shaking hands ( if he did the nostril pinch) or a fist bump, (if he did the violin swipe) without first re-sanitizing his hands. THEN he might spread the disease, IF he was infected.


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## markr6 (Feb 4, 2021)

I have an irritating dry hand/cracked finger tip issue. Water is killer. To be honest I don't even wash my hands anymore except for after #2. Even then it's not like they're covered in poop, but it just seems like too much to skip there.

There's your TMI for the day. But honestly, I'm coming out of the bathroom the same as when I went in. I don't touch anything. I won't go further into the mechanics of it, so just trust me.

Also, given the pandemic I think this would be the perfect time to address the "pull-to-exit" public bathroom doors. They make ZERO sense.


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## turbodog (Feb 4, 2021)

markr6 said:


> I have an irritating dry hand/cracked finger tip issue. Water is killer. To be honest I don't even wash my hands anymore except for after #2. Even then it's not like they're covered in poop, but it just seems like too much to skip there.
> 
> There's your TMI for the day. But honestly, I'm coming out of the bathroom the same as when I went in. I don't touch anything. I won't go further into the mechanics of it, so just trust me.
> 
> Also, given the pandemic I think this would be the perfect time to address the "pull-to-exit" public bathroom doors. They make ZERO sense.



Yup. They take longer. Sometimes you have to stand there and wait for an hour till someone comes in and you can slip out.


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## nbp (Feb 4, 2021)

If you want to skip washing your hands after the bathroom in your own house, that’s your business. But it’s disgusting when I see men leave public restrooms without washing. Carry some lotion or something to put on after but wash your freakin hands. Please.


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## markr6 (Feb 4, 2021)

nbp said:


> If you want to skip washing your hands after the bathroom in your own house, that’s your business. But it’s disgusting when I see men leave public restrooms without washing. Carry some lotion or something to put on after but wash your freakin hands. Please.




Eww can't do that either. I'm not bathing my hands in pee.


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## Kestrel (Feb 4, 2021)

markr6 said:


> [...] I think this would be the perfect time to address the "pull-to-exit" public bathroom doors. They make ZERO sense.


Hear hear; a few businesses have started to add, I don't know what to call them except foot-handles (they are very easy to use), and I often go out of my way to state my appreciation of that design detail.


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## markr6 (Feb 4, 2021)

Kestrel said:


> Hear hear; a few businesses have started to add, I don't know what to call them except foot-handles (they are very easy to use), and I often go out of my way to state my appreciation of that design detail.




I was going to mention that but forgot! A simple metal plate with small spikes so your shoe gets some grip. Great idea.


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## nbp (Feb 4, 2021)

It’s not the pee I’m worried about, that’s sterile. Nether regions are breeding grounds for nasties. There’s a reason the advent of germ theory and an understanding of the necessity of handwashing in 1870s slashed communicable disease transmission. It’s like wearing your mask; it shows respect to everyone around to wash after using the restroom. Anyways, bathroom etiquette is beyond the scope of this thread, but please practice good hygiene, for all of us.


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## orbital (Feb 4, 2021)

+

Get rid of pennies in our society, take that trainload of copper & electroplate bathroom door handles.
Have that be 'code' for all *new* major buildings, big box, ect..

Four pennies worth of copper, per handle, is not that much.

_I know that's not going to happen, but it's the kind of stuff that pops in my head._


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## turbodog (Feb 4, 2021)

markr6 said:


> I was going to mention that but forgot! A simple metal plate with small spikes so your shoe gets some grip. Great idea.



Even better, put the metal plate with spikes on the bottom of your shoe. Can open ALL doors now!


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## markr6 (Feb 4, 2021)

nbp said:


> It’s not the pee I’m worried about, that’s sterile. Nether regions are breeding grounds for nasties. There’s a reason the advent of germ theory and an understanding of the necessity of handwashing in 1870s slashed communicable disease transmission. It’s like wearing your mask; it shows respect to everyone around to wash after using the restroom. Anyways, bathroom etiquette is beyond the scope of this thread, but please practice good hygiene, for all of us.




That's good because I'm not "messing around" down there. Like I said.

Anyway, back to the second wave...or 5th?...


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## nbp (Feb 4, 2021)

orbital said:


> +
> 
> Get rid of pennies in our society, take that trainload of copper & electroplate bathroom door handles.
> Have that be 'code' for all *new* major buildings, big box, ect..
> ...



Pennies are made of zinc. The copper coating is super thin. Self cleaning handles are a good idea though. I have seen that some hospitals have done copper touch surfaces, but not many due to cost.


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## Lynx_Arc (Feb 4, 2021)

markr6 said:


> I have an irritating dry hand/cracked finger tip issue. Water is killer. To be honest I don't even wash my hands anymore except for after #2. Even then it's not like they're covered in poop, but it just seems like too much to skip there.
> 
> There's your TMI for the day. But honestly, I'm coming out of the bathroom the same as when I went in. I don't touch anything. I won't go further into the mechanics of it, so just trust me.
> 
> Also, given the pandemic I think this would be the perfect time to address the "pull-to-exit" public bathroom doors. They make ZERO sense.



AMEN!..... what idiot came up with that stupid idea to begin with? I've seen bathrooms with toe holds that are supposed to let you open the door (pull it) with your foot but the ones I tried the door closer was too strong for it to be useful. Nothing like washing your hands and wondering if the last 10 guys that pulled on the handle had not done so. Maybe someone needs to design an elbow pull.


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## markr6 (Feb 4, 2021)

Lynx_Arc said:


> AMEN!..... what idiot came up with that stupid idea to begin with? I've seen bathrooms with toe holds that are supposed to let you open the door (pull it) with your foot but the ones I tried the door closer was too strong for it to be useful. Nothing like washing your hands and wondering if the last 10 guys that pulled on the handle had not done so. Maybe someone needs to design an elbow pull.




I always laugh when others have the same idea as me...a big pile of towels are in the corner behind the door. Smart places will leave a separate trash bin right there for those.

Covid cases here went from about 6000 daily, then around 4000, and to about 1500 this week. Hope that holds! But an audit "found" 1500 additional deaths. The front page news wasn't sexy enough with the low numbers, so good timing on that.


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## nbp (Feb 4, 2021)

Or just make the bathroom doors open outward so you can just push it with your elbow or shoulder. No special grabber needed.


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## markr6 (Feb 4, 2021)

nbp said:


> Or just make the bathroom doors open outward so you can just push it with your elbow or shoulder. No special grabber needed.



That should be standard. I think they usually go into the bathroom to avoid "main traffic". You could knock someone out in the hallway, especially if you're holding your breath and making a quick escape.


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## KITROBASKIN (Feb 4, 2021)

More monoclonal possibilities:

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/monoclonal-antibodies-coronavirus-regeneron-phase3-data/

If paper towels are available in toilet room, use some to pull the handle?


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## Tejasandre (Feb 4, 2021)

Seems every place was going to air drying like a dyson prior to the pandemic. Lots of no towels facilities.


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## Lynx_Arc (Feb 4, 2021)

markr6 said:


> That should be standard. I think they usually go into the bathroom to avoid "main traffic". You could knock someone out in the hallway, especially if you're holding your breath and making a quick escape.



I've been in some bathrooms that have no door on them they just have it so it winds around the corner so that people can't peek in there without walking in 6 feet or so.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Feb 4, 2021)

nbp said:


> It’s not the pee I’m worried about, that’s sterile. Nether regions are breeding grounds for nasties. There’s a reason the advent of germ theory and an understanding of the necessity of handwashing in 1870s slashed communicable disease transmission. It’s like wearing your mask; it shows respect to everyone around to wash after using the restroom. Anyways, bathroom etiquette is beyond the scope of this thread, but please practice good hygiene, for all of us.



A long time ago, in a place right down the street, I was about to treat myself to a cup of some expensive ice cream when I noticed the employee placing her thumb inside the cup as she took it from the shelf. As she turned around to scoop my choice I informed her that I didn't want that cup because she had placed her finger into it. She immediately denied doing so. When I reassured her that she did, she asked me in a very dismissive tone - "Do you want another cup?" 

Holding up my hand :thumbsup: I retorted - "I'll make you a deal, if you'll lick my thumb, I'll eat ice cream from that cup." 

Her visceral reaction was to exclaim - :eeew: 

I said - "Exactly."


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## jtr1962 (Feb 4, 2021)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Holding up my hand :thumbsup: I retorted - "I'll make you a deal, if you'll lick my thumb, I'll eat ice cream from that cup."


I would have mentioned another part of my anatomy instead of my thumb, but well-played. Also, if people don't wash their hands after using the bathroom, licking their thumb would for all intents and purposes be equivalent to licking said part of their anatomy. One of the first things my mom taught me after "potty training" was washing my hands. To this day it grosses me out seeing guys leaving after doing #2 without washing their hands.


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## Poppy (Feb 4, 2021)

I fully agree that after doing number #2 that everyone should wash his/her hands.

Now I can only speak for the male population.
If I am working on my car, and my hands are dirty, and greasy, I'll wash my hands BEFORE I unzip and pee.
Why don't I do that ALL the Time? I don't know.
My underparts were cleaned in my morning shower, and then wrapped in a double layer of cotton with tighty whities, and then covered with slacks. So.... they are clean!

My hands have been exposed all day to dirty things, keyboard, door knobs, arm chairs, steering wheel, etc... they are dirty.

I'll routinely wash my hands after urinating, and while washing my hands ponder... Why after, and not before?


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## markr6 (Feb 5, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> Also, if people don't wash their hands after using the bathroom, licking their thumb would for all intents and purposes be equivalent to licking said part of their anatomy.



Yet so many dog owners think it's cute when their dog "kisses" them. Do you not see what they've been licking all day? So you're basically licking that. And the "dogs mouths are cleaner than humans" defense doesn't work. Maybe technically with an experiment in a petri dish counting bacteria, but I'm still not a buyer.


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## Kestrel (Feb 5, 2021)

nbp said:


> Bathroom etiquette is beyond the scope of this thread, but please practice good hygiene, for all of us.


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## turbodog (Feb 10, 2021)

In my state the numbers continue to improve. They are more or less in 'free fall', the daily rate is dropping so quickly that my projection model is more or less broken right now.

Our daily new rate is as low as it's *EVER* been. Hospital availability is rebounding. Deaths are still high, but off their peak.

And I leave in 20 minutes for shot #2. More anecdotal reports are coming in that the second one results in fever/aches for a day or two.


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## markr6 (Feb 10, 2021)

turbodog said:


> In my state the numbers continue to improve. They are more or less in 'free fall', the daily rate is dropping so quickly that my projection model is more or less broken right now.
> 
> Our daily new rate is as low as it's *EVER* been. Hospital availability is rebounding. Deaths are still high, but off their peak.
> 
> And I leave in 20 minutes for shot #2. More anecdotal reports are coming in that the second one results in fever/aches for a day or two.



Good luck with the next one! Has to feel good to get that settled and out of the way. Do they provide any info on coming back in a year or so? Or maybe it's too early for anyone to really know.


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## SCEMan (Feb 10, 2021)

turbodog said:


> And I leave in 20 minutes for shot #2. More anecdotal reports are coming in that the second one results in fever/aches for a day or two.



I'm getting the 2nd Pfizer on Sunday and had fever/aches for 30 hrs. after the first one.

Update: Back to normal after about 30 hrs. of body aches and fatigue


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## raggie33 (Feb 10, 2021)

do them face sheilds help?


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## raggie33 (Feb 10, 2021)

btw im not a cat!


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## Lynx_Arc (Feb 10, 2021)

raggie33 said:


> do them face sheilds help?


I think they do reduce the possibility of being infected by direct wind based virus particles (coughs, sneezes, talking to you) but those particles/droplets that float in the air can go around the shield such that if the air is saturated their effectiveness is probably less than masks are. People I think wear the shields because they have respiratory issues or psychological issues or have people that lip read or may think people can hear what they say better or... they have beautiful faces that they don't want to hide 
I've rarely seen people wear both a mask and a face shield perhaps because together they would more restrict breathing and in warmer weather could be uncomfortably hot after awhile. I've worn both a dust mask and face shield before and when you are exerting yourself it is very tiring.


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## turbodog (Feb 10, 2021)

markr6 said:


> Good luck with the next one! Has to feel good to get that settled and out of the way. Do they provide any info on coming back in a year or so? Or maybe it's too early for anyone to really know.



No info.

1st shot was rough. Think it's because they thought my arm was a whale they needed to harpoon. Was really sore almost immediately and for 2-3 days.

2nd shot was a complete non-event, at least so far. Can't even feel where it went in.


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## turbodog (Feb 10, 2021)

SCEMan said:


> I'm getting the 2nd Pfizer on Sunday and had fever/aches for 30 hrs. after the first one.



Maybe you had it already. Can donate blood and free antibody test.


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## raggie33 (Feb 10, 2021)

turbodog said:


> No info.
> 
> 1st shot was rough. Think it's because they thought my arm was a whale they needed to harpoon. Was really sore almost immediately and for 2-3 days.
> 
> 2nd shot was a complete non-event, at least so far. Can't even feel where it went in.


i truly hate needles. i keep wondering is that a new needle!


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## jtr1962 (Feb 10, 2021)

turbodog said:


> 1st shot was rough. Think it's because they thought my arm was a whale they needed to harpoon. Was really sore almost immediately and for 2-3 days.


Reminds me of what happened to me in grade school. The school nurse was giving vaccinations. Don't remember for what. It could have been polio, smallpox, whatever. Anyway, she jabs my arm like she was giving a shot of antibiotics to a cow, basically with her hand wrapped around the syringe, thrusting it in. I think she may have hit bone. I was screaming in pain. All I know is after that I was deathly afraid of needles. Next time it was vaccination day, it took three people to hold me down while they were giving the shot. At least that time it wasn't anything worse than a pin prick.


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## jtr1962 (Feb 10, 2021)

Texas and California have now both joined NY in the 40K+ deaths category. California is actually poised to overtake NY as #1 in deaths today or tomorrow. I normally would cheer my state for being #1 in something, but in this case I'm happy we're relinquishing the crown to someone else.


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## turbodog (Feb 10, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> Texas and California have now both joined NY in the 40K+ deaths category. California is actually poised to overtake NY as #1 in deaths today or tomorrow. I normally would cheer my state for being #1 in something, but in this case I'm happy we're relinquishing the crown to someone else.



I have not done math lately. Which is highest per capita?

Ok, just did the math. Top 10 per capita death rates so far:

Rate State Deceased State Population

0.249%	New Jersey	22,103	8,882,190
0.233%	New York	45,301	19,453,561
0.219%	Massachusetts	15,124	6,892,503
0.213%	Mississippi	6,342	2,976,149
0.212%	Rhode Island	2,248	1,059,361
0.205%	Connecticut	7,298	3,565,287
0.204%	South Dakota	1,809	884,659
0.197%	Louisiana	9,162	4,648,794
0.196%	Arizona	14,286	7,278,717
0.187%	North Dakota	1,427	762,062

Forum does not allow tab stops, so the formatting is terrible.


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## jtr1962 (Feb 10, 2021)

turbodog said:


> I have not done math lately. Which is highest per capita?


Just go here for that info. Click on the Deaths/1M Population column to sort in ascending or descending order.

Unfortunately, since the northeast got hit first, we had a lot of deaths which wouldn't have happened with the better treatments available now. Also, the population density in the NE works against us.


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## jtr1962 (Feb 11, 2021)

More on covid-19 infecting people long before the outbreak in Wuhan:

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-circulating-europe-china-months-205102397.html

To this day I still think something I caught in early fall 2019 was coronavirus. Getting very sick, followed by a recovery lasting until December, are hallmarks of what some people have gone through. The puzzling thing however is if it was circulating back then, why weren't there major outbreaks? Given how contagious this is, if it made into some countries in early fall 2019, late fall/winter 2019 should have looked like this past fall/winter did. In fact, worse because nobody was wearing masks or otherwise taking any precautions back then. My best guess is the early strains weren't particularly contagious. Maybe the first cases with a much more contagious mutation were indeed at Wuhan. As for how I might have caught it, my brother works in a hospital and back then he was stopping by fairly often. Maybe someone at the hospital had it, he caught and was asymptomatic, then he passed it on to me.


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## turbodog (Feb 11, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> More on covid-19 infecting people long before the outbreak in Wuhan:
> 
> https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-circulating-europe-china-months-205102397.html
> 
> To this day I still think something I caught in early fall 2019 was coronavirus. Getting very sick, followed by a recovery lasting until December, are hallmarks of what some people have gone through. The puzzling thing however is if it was circulating back then, why weren't there major outbreaks? Given how contagious this is, if it made into some countries in early fall 2019, late fall/winter 2019 should have looked like this past fall/winter did. In fact, worse because nobody was wearing masks or otherwise taking any precautions back then. My best guess is the early strains weren't particularly contagious. Maybe the first cases with a much more contagious mutation were indeed at Wuhan. As for how I might have caught it, my brother works in a hospital and back then he was stopping by fairly often. Maybe someone at the hospital had it, he caught and was asymptomatic, then he passed it on to me.



I've heard your story a few times. Asked my cousin (MD) about it. He reply was that a flu like virus usually comes around every few years. Similar symptoms, but negative on flu test. Seems reasonable enough, especially consider that if it was covid... and you had it way back then... we would have been wrapped up WAY sooner.


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## jtr1962 (Feb 11, 2021)

turbodog said:


> I've heard your story a few times. Asked my cousin (MD) about it. He reply was that a flu like virus usually comes around every few years. Similar symptoms, but negative on flu test. Seems reasonable enough, especially consider that if it was covid... and you had it way back then... we would have been wrapped up WAY sooner.


That sounds more plausible, especially given that I had limited contact with people even pre-pandemic. I'm probably one of the last ones likely to have gotten a new disease before most other people did.

That said, the antibodies show this thing was in Europe and China at least several months earlier than we thought. So why didn't it take off like wildfire in early fall 2019? My only answer to that is the earliest strains just weren't very contagious, and perhaps no more deadly, either. So a small number of people getting flu-like symptoms, with an even smaller number dying, wouldn't have raised any alarms.


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## turbodog (Feb 11, 2021)

Well I was fine for ~20 hours after shot #2. Then minor aches all over started. A 'double shot' of tylenol and aleve knocked them out pretty well.


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## scout24 (Feb 12, 2021)

My Wife's uncle down in Florida has been wanting the shots for months now. Short supply, high demand. He was able to get on a list for the first one 230 miles away, so he drove there and got a hotel room for the night. Going back next week for round two, same routine. So far he's had no side effects...


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## turbodog (Feb 12, 2021)

scout24 said:


> My Wife's uncle down in Florida has been wanting the shots for months now. Short supply, high demand. He was able to get on a list for the first one 230 miles away, so he drove there and got a hotel room for the night. Going back next week for round two, same routine. So far he's had no side effects...



My 'uncomfortable' spot was yesterday from noon till 10pm. Am fine this morning.

My 3rd arm is growing nicely. I figure I can use it to mouse with... never have to take my hands from the keyboard again.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Feb 12, 2021)

turbodog said:


> My 'uncomfortable' spot was yesterday from noon till 10pm. Am fine this morning.
> 
> My 3rd arm is growing nicely. I figure I can use it to mouse with... never have to take my hands from the keyboard again.



A third arm is one thing. Just don't let your woman get the vaccine.


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## jtr1962 (Feb 13, 2021)

turbodog said:


> My 'uncomfortable' spot was yesterday from noon till 10pm. Am fine this morning.
> 
> My 3rd arm is growing nicely. I figure I can use it to mouse with... never have to take my hands from the keyboard again.


I guess everyone reacts differently to the vaccine. My brother is growing a second head. One of his coworkers has a tail. Another got cat ears. It's almost like random parts from any animal can pop up.


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## bykfixer (Feb 13, 2021)

I'm hoping it changes me into a person free from ever having to worry about covid-19……ever. If I grow a tail that'll suck because my pants would become mighty drafty in winter.


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## KITROBASKIN (Feb 13, 2021)

Anyone seeing data regarding vaccine comparisons; efficacy, safety, cost, pain, etc.?


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## turbodog (Feb 13, 2021)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Anyone seeing data regarding vaccine comparisons; efficacy, safety, cost, pain, etc.?



Pfizer/moderna appear to be effective against the other strains out there. Astra zenica not so much.

Israel's data is showing 99.9%+ effective... not sure which mfg they are using.


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## bigburly912 (Feb 13, 2021)

Johnson and Johnson 65%


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## adamlau (Feb 14, 2021)

turbodog said:


> 1st shot was rough...Was really sore almost immediately and for 2-3 days.


Felt like what a tetanus shot feels like. Sore for a couple of days. Moderna.


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## richbuff (Feb 15, 2021)

NPR has reported today "more than 484,000 deaths" in the US. That is the same number of 1909-S VDB cents minted. https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1909-s-vdb-1c-bn/2426


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## Lynx_Arc (Feb 15, 2021)

richbuff said:


> NPR has reported today "more than 484,000 deaths" in the US. That is the same number of 1909-S VDB cents minted. https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1909-s-vdb-1c-bn/2426



so in other words Covid doesn't make any cents......


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## Phou1973 (Feb 16, 2021)

Not sure where everyone is from - seems US, but here in the UK i think we're just getting past our second wave (hopefully), and vaccines have been rolled out to most of the people at risk, along with care workers and nurses. Hopefully it slows the vaccine down and life can start returning back to normal.


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## turbodog (Feb 16, 2021)

Phou1973 said:


> Not sure where everyone is from - seems US, but here in the UK i think we're just getting past our second wave (hopefully), and vaccines have been rolled out to most of the people at risk, along with care workers and nurses. Hopefully it slows the vaccine down and life can start returning back to normal.



Welcome.

We think the same also, but are seeing MAJOR rejection of the vaccine... a LOT of people won't take it.


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## KITROBASKIN (Feb 17, 2021)

Interesting to see the Worldometer graphs for India these days. Some experts are baffled why India is doing so well without the vaccine effect not having really kicked in yet.

Kitrobaskin Post #32 in the original COVID thread here at CPF:

Seems like historically, humanity (not some individuals) became stronger after exposure to pathogens. Most people infected apparently do not get especially sick. Has anyone mentioned eating healthy foods, remaining positive about life (including kindness toward others), gratitude, and a good looking useful flashlight?


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## turbodog (Feb 17, 2021)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Interesting to see the Worldometer graphs for India these days. Some experts are baffled why India is doing so well without the vaccine effect not having really kicked in yet.
> 
> ...



I expected India to be a wildfire with the population density in cities/slums. However, I was unaware of the ridiculously young demographics of India. 

median age 26.8 years old (compared to 38 for the USA)

29% of people 0-14 years
64% of people 15-64 years
5% of people >64 years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India


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## Katherine Alicia (Feb 17, 2021)

KITROBASKIN;5443127[COLOR=#333333 said:


> remaining positive about life (including kindness toward others), gratitude, and a good looking useful flashlight?
> [/COLOR]



100% Agree!
I like to keep a Gratitude Journal, it`s a mostly just a long list of all the things I`m grateful for, often a single word or short sentence will get added when I have something to be grateful for. Once this becomes a habit You`de be surprised just how much there is to be grateful for and you`ll start noticing them more often too.


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## Lynx_Arc (Feb 17, 2021)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Interesting to see the Worldometer graphs for India these days. Some experts are baffled why India is doing so well without the vaccine effect not having really kicked in yet.
> 
> Kitrobaskin Post #32 in the original COVID thread here at CPF:
> 
> Seems like historically, humanity (not some individuals) became stronger after exposure to pathogens. Most people infected apparently do not get especially sick. Has anyone mentioned eating healthy foods, remaining positive about life (including kindness toward others), gratitude, and a good looking useful flashlight?



A large dense population nearer to the hotbed of viruses etc in China likely has India passing around more bugs which in turn exercises their immune system. I read somewhere that having certain colds in the past make you more resistant to Covid 19 because they too are Corona Viruses. As I've heard the African American population is more at risk from covid than other races it doesn't surprise me that another race of people are less at risk from the virus. As for "experts" this virus has pretty much shown there are none regarding it other than creating a vaccine few have much of a clue how to predict the next outbreak and what preventative steps taken will affect it and how.


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## KITROBASKIN (Feb 17, 2021)

May you live long and prosper, Katherine Alicia

Moderator Archimedes' post #344 (3/22/2020) in the original COVID thread:

I think it is fair to say that everyone is stressed at the moment.

Different personalities react to stress differently. Some joke, some downplay, some panic, some withdraw, some seek interaction or distraction.

Please keep in mind that moderation here on CPF is ~ 90% driven by other members' reports and complaints, not by mods themselves.

With several of my posts above, what seems like ages ago now (but really only a few days back) , I had asked for several in this thread to cool down the rhetoric. So no, no one here is being singled out.

Please try to keep these points in mind. Being friendly, helpful, open minded, and supportive of each other, is of immense value in a crisis. Both in our own little community, as well as out in the world at large.

Thank you all for attempting to be thoughtful and considerate at this time of crisis.


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## turbodog (Feb 17, 2021)

Lynx_Arc said:


> ...As for "experts" this virus has pretty much shown there are none regarding it other than creating a vaccine few have much of a clue how to predict the next outbreak and what preventative steps taken will affect it and how.



Except that this isn't quite accurate. Globally, people are actively researching animals considered likely to spawn the next pathogen. And we know how to mitigate spread... doing it is another matter. Don't think we really needed double blind confirmation that masks, hygiene, distancing, etc helped slow down an airborne pathogen.


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## KITROBASKIN (Feb 18, 2021)

Can we take a moment to appreciate the managers and custodians of CPF?
May 15, 2020 Post #652 by Greta in the second coronavirus thread


Speaking of changing stripes and moderating these forums and get off my lawn!! -----

I was asked to join these forums 18 years ago to help out with moderating and overall upkeep. I was only 40 years old then!  David W had his ways and I followed along and "learned" from him. Both of us came from a very conservative political forum. First rule of CPF - No political discussions! And we were pretty strict about that. Second Rule of CPF - Keep it family friendly to include: no flaming, baiting, or trolling, and no foul/offensive language. Over the years and once David W left the forums, I was determined to uphold the standards and integrity he established. But time goes on... and things change... and people change.

I have found that I'm not so rigid anymore... everything black or white. There really -ARE- grey areas! Go figure! And I think we have gotten to a point with our membership where the majority can act like adults. If something is a bit over the line, a gentle reminder or request to tone down is met with maturity and compliance. Easy peasy. And MUCH better than an iron fist. Was I wrong back in the day? No. I don't think I was. I think I sorted things the way they needed to be at the time and with the experience I had at the time.

So here I am now... 58 years old. And I've learned so much more! One of the most important things I've learned is that the moderators and administrators of this forum are human too. And they have thoughts and opinions. And they should not have to keep those to themselves. Of course, there is a fine line between expressing their opinions and using their position to impose their opinions. The group we have right now is absolutely amazing! We discuss in private what we should and shouldn't say or do as far as moderation. And as far as I'm concerned, no one throws their weight around as far as their "powers". Some interpret just the presence of a moderator in a thread as inserting and asserting authority. Don't. Unless their post is specifically addressing a moderating issue, they are just regular people just like the rest of us. And yes, that includes me too.

So as far as moderating the moderators - don't worry... I got it  - and changing stripes? I've definitely done that! - And now? Get off my lawn!


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## ledbetter (Feb 19, 2021)

Optimism on recent lower infection rates and deaths(half million total by end of the month)should be mitigated by variants and infections outpacing vaccinations, especially with 48 states having indoor dining and many school districts reopening without requiring vaccinations or even cohesive guidelines. Americans’ flippant attitude towards this disease, vaccinations, and science in general is astounding. Hopefully the new government’s efforts will not be for naught but when the states and general population just decide to ignore reality, there’s little that can be done. Most Americans would rather listen to and believe a carnival barker or a preacher or a spewer of hate on the radio than a scientist.


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## KITROBASKIN (Feb 19, 2021)

...variants and infections outpacing vaccinations? Where is your data? 
Further, your negative spew of 'most americans' is damaging to your credibility. 
Death is a great equalizer, and deciding to spit on the grave is not becoming, regardless of the hate they propagated. We are all imperfect, don't you think?


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## jtr1962 (Feb 19, 2021)

KITROBASKIN said:


> ...variants and infections outpacing vaccinations? Where is your data?
> Further, your negative spew of 'most americans' is damaging to your credibility.
> Death is a great equalizer, and deciding to spit on the grave is not becoming, regardless of the hate they propagated. We are all imperfect, don't you think?


Unfortunately, in a situation like this it doesn't even have to be "most" people ignoring guidelines. All it takes is a small minority to undo the hard work of everyone else trying to slow the spread. If 95% had worn masks consistently we would have been through the worst of this months ago. If 10% or 20% decide to ignore the advice of experts, well, here we are.


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## ledbetter (Feb 19, 2021)

KITROBASKIN said:


> ...”We are all imperfect, don't you think?


 
Well, obviously, some more than others.


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## Greta (Feb 19, 2021)

*ledbetter - *drop the politics and confrontational rhetoric. This is your one and only warning. If I have to remove one more of your posts from ANY thread, you will be taking some time off from CPF.


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## SCEMan (Feb 20, 2021)

Wouldn't this be nice.... Herd Immunity
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?page=1


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## turbodog (Feb 20, 2021)

SCEMan said:


> Wouldn't this be nice.... Herd Immunity
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731?page=1



Read the article. I agree that recovered cases + immunized people will reach herd immunity and cases will plummet. But I don't think we are there yet.

New cases appear to be in free fall. But, deaths are NOT (yet). One of the top 10 highest 7 day average deaths (3,057) happened on 1-8-2021. Another happened on 2-13-2021 (2,967). ALL 10 occurrences are within Jan 8 to Feb 13, more or less evenly spread out over this time period.

Additionally, when calculating recent case mortality, the recent numbers are skyrocketing. So what? Did it just get much more deadly? I thought we 'burned through' the most vulnerable a year ago. These numbers should be dropping. So, to me, all data seems to point to new cases being seriously under reported.

We ARE off the holiday peak, but not into herd immunity yet. A few more weeks should tell a better story.

When new cases (which could be influenced by testing) drop along with deaths (which are more impartial to testing), THEN we can applaud. But at NO time during any of this can we let our guard down, and the sooner we are all vaccinated the fewer chances we have for further mutations.


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## jtr1962 (Feb 20, 2021)

Keep in mind immunity from getting it is a lot shorter lived than immunity from vaccinations. And some people can still get one of the new strains even after having gotten it once. My takeaway from the article is that if we possibly reach herd immunity by April in part due to people who already had it, it will buy us time to vaccinate everyone before the natural immunity wears off. We still need to vaccinate everyone, whether they had it or not. And we may need booster shots next year to deal with new strains.


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## turbodog (Feb 20, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> ... My takeaway from the article is that if we possibly reach herd immunity by April in part due to people who already had it, it will buy us time to vaccinate everyone before the natural immunity wears off. ...



"Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—*90 years later*—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies."


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## Poppy (Feb 26, 2021)

Just a few weeks ago, maybe four, there was very little "covid variant sequential testing" done in the US. So we didn't know to what extent the variants were taking hold in the US. NY's Governor Cuomo, ordered a number of hospitals to start doing sequence testing. The News has not been reporting on their results. I think they are only sequencing 1%, but perhaps they have ramped that up.

At any rate, yesterday and again today the News has been reporting that there is a "Home Grown" variant, both in NY, and in California. Also, one reporter stated that 25% of the new cases were of the home grown variant. So the questions are how long has THIS variant been around? Is it spreading rapidly? More infectious? Resistant to vaccinations?

Today, more has been said of the need for caution, that the decline in cases, and hospitalizations appears to have stalled. It's possibly due to the new variants, and we may be on the verge of another surge. 

Warnings are continued, to not let down your guard, stay safe, wear masks, maintain distance, get vaccinated when you can.

In the meantime, Moderna is working on a variant specific booster.


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## SCEMan (Feb 27, 2021)

Poppy said:


> At any rate, yesterday and again today the News has been reporting that there is a "Home Grown" variant, both in NY, and in California. Also, one reporter stated that 25% of the new cases were of the home grown variant. So the questions are how long has THIS variant been around? Is it spreading rapidly? More infectious? Resistant to vaccinations?



A local radio station was discussing the CA variant and it appears it's been out since October 2020.


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## nbp (Feb 27, 2021)

I saw there are seven variants from the USA.


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## bykfixer (Feb 27, 2021)

turbodog said:


> "Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—*90 years later*—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies."



Research from cadivers shows there were 4 known variants to the 1918 flu that is actually thought to have begun in the 500's and bounced around planet earth for hundreds of years and settling into a nice pattern of bad behavior in 1890. The thinking is that older folks in 1916-1920 survived the original 1916 version because they had antibodies from the 1890 version. But……by 1920 three mutations had seemingly taken place and even older folks succumbed to the "Spanish flu" by then. 
I worked at a place where a cemetery on our project was said to be a Spanish flu cemetery. People buried in that one were from the 1918 version, the 1930's version and the 1950's version. I had a variant of it in the 1990's. All of my older comrads who had not had the flu since the 1960's were dropping like flies with high fever and many developed pnuemonia from it. At that time my system was vulnerable due to a high stress work load and it put me down for nearly a month. My doctor said he'd never seen a flu that bad that year. Studies later indicated it was indeed another version of the Spanish flu. 

This new virus will be around from now on. Does that mean we have to wear masks forever now? Well mankind has made it this far without a shot for the Spanish flu, which was much more lethal than this one.


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## wacbzz (Feb 27, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> This new virus will be around from now on. Does that mean we have to wear masks forever now? Well mankind has made it this far without a shot for the Spanish flu, which was much more lethal than this one.



There is _zero debate_ as to why the 1918 flu was more “lethal” numbers wise than COVID 19. Such a comparison of mortality without a real examination of the underlying causation(s) is merely playing on the “fog” of the masses.


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## bykfixer (Feb 28, 2021)

Huh? I don't follow...Are you debating that there is zero debate?


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## turbodog (Feb 28, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> Huh? I don't follow...Are you debating that there is zero debate?



I think he's saying deaths were high due to lack of 1) effective and 2) available treatment.


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## Poppy (Mar 1, 2021)

last week I got my second Moderna shot.

The gal must have used a thin needle, because if I didn't see her depress the plunger out of the corner of my eye, I wouldn't have known she gave it to me. No pain at all!

The following day, though, I was tired all day, and spent a good part of it in bed sleeping. I also felt like I had a really low grade fever, and walked around the house in a sweat shirt, while everyone else wore short sleeve T shirts.

The day after that.... everything was fine. Not even a sore arm.


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 3, 2021)

I've read today about the "Moderna arm" rash. Apparently it's nothing serious but unique to this vaccine. I got my first shot of the Pfizer vaccine today. No symptoms yet other than a very slight soreness in my arm. It was apparently a fine gauge needle - I barely felt anything.


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## bykfixer (Mar 3, 2021)

A guy on the radio said he was concerned about Texas opening up completely because it may cause a 4th wave. 
Was there a 3rd wave?


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 3, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> A guy on the radio said he was concerned about Texas opening up completely because it may cause a 4th wave.
> Was there a 3rd wave?




I thought we were still in the second wave, the one that started to spike in the fall and is finally dropping back to last summer's levels.


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## turbodog (Mar 3, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> A guy on the radio said he was concerned about Texas opening up completely because it may cause a 4th wave.
> Was there a 3rd wave?



I show summer (1), thanksgiving (2), and christmas/new years (3). 2 & 3 were pretty close, but there was a distinct dip between them for about 10 days.


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## idleprocess (Mar 4, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> A guy on the radio said he was concerned about Texas opening up completely because it may cause a 4th wave.
> Was there a 3rd wave?



Locally for me (Denton County TX), it appears that it's just the second wave that has crested:






Absolute peak was just shy of 16,000 cases January 29; present caseload is just shy of 12,000 cases. There were ~500 active cases when the lockdown started in March, ~700 when the lockdowns ended in June, and the summer peak was ~3,100 cases August 1.

I'm hoping that the trend continues downward despite the decision to 'reopen' TX and ending the statewide face mask mandate. My informal survey suggests that area restaurants, bars, hair salons, and other establishments heavily dependent upon customers showing up in-person were hardly suffering due to capacity restrictions. A number of retailers aren't going to change their policies on face masks, but some doubtlessly will.

In the meantime I've got a half-face respirator, some extra P100 filters, and managed to scam an appointment for the first dose of vaccine next week.


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## bykfixer (Mar 4, 2021)

I think a lot will proceed with caution until the gubment gives the all clear signal, some never have proceeded with caution and most will be somewhere in between. Partly out of habit and partly until they have had the shot. 

Warmer weather on the east coast should bring about more outdoor gatherings so as a result a reduction in cases, just like a year ago. But, like the 1918 flu this will be likely be around for a while longer. 

I await the day when the world says "phew, that one sucked"……


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## markr6 (Mar 4, 2021)

You can get a vaccine in NC if you've smoked 100+ cigarettes in your life. I never counted but at the age of 40 (in 2 weeks) I know I'm still under a pack/life.

Teachers are now finally eligible here in IN. Took a while and people were upset about that. But really, everyone wanted on the list. Hey, it's USA, we like to think we're all special.


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## bykfixer (Mar 4, 2021)

Teachers should certainly be a priority. But like you said Markr, many of us want to be in the front of the line.
My state has begun 1B where essential workers are part of the line now. Retail like grocery store workers, teachers, the UPS driver and like that there. I don't think it matters how many cigarettes you have ever smoked though. It seems to me there was an age thing tossed in at some point. Perhaps it was part of 1B. But it also seems 1C is available in some areas of my state. To date about 10% of our population has both doses.


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## turbodog (Mar 4, 2021)

Short of having a logistics expert decide how to dole out the doses I would push doses to the elderly. But at the same time I would open it wide open to anyone wanting. Plenty of people sacrificed to save their fellow man, and these are probably the most eager to get vaccinated.

Plenty of major vectors are being overlooked. I'm in IT, and on a given day I could be at any one of 500+ businesses across town, each one with anywhere from 2-3 employees to hundreds. I expect the same from any person in telcom, office products delivery, vending machines, HVAC service, water delivery, UPS, Fedex, USPS, etc. People in these roles cut across normal isolation bubbles, connecting people that normally would have never contacted each other.


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## bykfixer (Mar 4, 2021)

You would be in 1C in my state TD. 
1B included the pony express folks. 

Many are saying "nah, you go ahead of me". I'm still on the fence about what to do when my turn pops up.


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## turbodog (Mar 4, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> You would be in 1C in my state TD.
> 1B included the pony express folks.
> 
> Many are saying "nah, you go ahead of me". I'm still on the fence about what to do when my turn pops up.



The thing that's lacking in the 'tiered rollout' is that _so_ many people are NOT taking the vaccine. To me, this more or less destroys the distribution model/goal.

Overall, we might be better served if our plans were tailored to entice/convince the <insert your choice of word here, any synonym for irresponsible person will do> group to get vaccinated. The willing need no convincing. The unwilling will drag this out and give it time to critically mutate.


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## Kestrel (Mar 4, 2021)

It would help if parties that declined the vaccination, would get notification that their insurers would refuse to pay for any subsequent COVID-related health care expenses; that would go a way towards solving a couple of problems.


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## turbodog (Mar 4, 2021)

Kestrel said:


> It would help if parties that declined the vaccination, would get notification that their insurers would refuse to pay for any subsequent COVID-related health care expenses; that would go a way towards solving a couple of problems.



Can we include MMR, hep, and other stuff on that list also?


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## Katherine Alicia (Mar 4, 2021)

unless the insurance contract contained some sort of clause to the effect "must take all resonable precautions to prevent X, Y or Z..." I`m not sure something like that could be enacted retroactively, pity though, I think it`s a great idea.
I know there`s a such a charge called "Reckless endangerment", I wonder if there`s a `Wilfull` endangerment as well? I think there should be, and those that refuse to comply be charged with it.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 4, 2021)

Katherine Alicia said:


> unless the insurance contract contained some sort of clause to the effect "must take all resonable precautions to prevent X, Y or Z..." I`m not sure something like that could be enacted retroactively, pity though, I think it`s a great idea.
> I know there`s a such a charge called "Reckless endangerment", I wonder if there`s a `Wilfull` endangerment as well? I think there should be, and those that refuse to comply be charged with it.



Do you believe people that knowingly refuse to stop socializing while infected with other communicable diseases also be charged? The ramifications of such a law would be pretty far reaching.


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## bykfixer (Mar 4, 2021)

Even George Orwell himself might say "hmmmm" to that notion.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 4, 2021)

Kestrel said:


> It would help if parties that declined the vaccination, would get notification that their insurers would refuse to pay for any subsequent COVID-related health care expenses; that would go a way towards solving a couple of problems.


Easier way is for employers and schools to require vaccinations. No vaccination, no job, and no school. Economic imperative will get nearly everyone to comply.


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## bykfixer (Mar 4, 2021)

And where does it go from there? Insurance companies and big companies having all that power? 
Well let's see here Mr JRT, it says here you didn't get your flu stot last year, you're fired". "Your analytics say you've got high trigricerides, you're outta here"……

And tell the families of the 1300+ people who have died from complications of the vaccine "get your shot or you don't get to enter the baseball stadium?" 
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html

Again, where would it end?


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## Katherine Alicia (Mar 4, 2021)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Do you believe people that knowingly refuse to stop socializing while infected with other communicable diseases also be charged?



Yes, to knowingly and wilfully endanger others is a crime IMO, just like DUI is even if you haven`t actually hit anyone (yet).


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## turbodog (Mar 4, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> And where does it go from there? Insurance companies and big companies having all that power?
> Well let's see here Mr JRT, it says here you didn't get your flu stot last year, you're fired". "Your analytics say you've got high trigricerides, you're outta here"……
> 
> And tell the families of the 1300+ people who have died from complications of the vaccine "get your shot or you don't get to enter the baseball stadium?"
> ...



Y'all must not be paying attention... the framework for this is being built already. More than one employer has a no tobacco policy. And I've seen prosecutions for people that knowingly infected others with STDs. And employers that reward weight loss and gym attendance are simply acting against those that do not lose weight or work out.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 4, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> And where does it go from there? Insurance companies and big companies having all that power?
> Well let's see here Mr JRT, it says here you didn't get your flu stot last year, you're fired". "Your analytics say you've got high trigricerides, you're outta here"……
> 
> And tell the families of the 1300+ people who have died from complications of the vaccine "get your shot or you don't get to enter the baseball stadium?"
> ...


Why do we always have to assume incrementalism? The vaccine policy could begin and end exactly as I described. Also, lots of jobs, especially for those in health care such as my brother's job, already require flu shots. The legal framework is in place for this. When you become an employee of a company, it's a voluntary relationship where you agree to abide by any rules they set. If you don't like the rules, you're always free to leave and find a place with rules more to your liking. Or start a home-based business where there are no rules at all. Here at least the reasons for pushing people to get vaccinated have to do with public health. That's actually a very valid reason.

1381 deaths after 76 million doses isn't a horrible number. In fact, some number of those people may have died from other causes not related to the vaccine. That's why each case of death needs to be thoroughly investigated. There may be a certain set of health conditions which places some people at unacceptable risk if they get vaccinated. I'm fine giving those people a waiver. It's such a small number that doing so won't prevent reaching eventual herd immunity. We've given waivers from vaccinations in the past for medical reasons.


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## idleprocess (Mar 4, 2021)

turbodog said:


> Y'all must not be paying attention... the framework for this is being built already. More than one employer has a no tobacco policy. And I've seen prosecutions for people that knowingly infected others with STDs. And employers that reward weight loss and gym attendance are simply acting against those that do not lose weight or work out.



More directly related to the task at hand, good luck enrolling your kid in school without getting them the full course of childhood vaccinations; in many states _I don't wanna_ isn't good enough for an exemption.


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## Kestrel (Mar 4, 2021)

Freedom of action doesn't mean freedom from consequences.


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## turbodog (Mar 4, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> More directly related to the task at hand, good luck enrolling your kid in school without getting them the full course of childhood vaccinations; in many states _I don't wanna_ isn't good enough for an exemption.



The biggest legal impediment is that the FDA issued an EMERGENCY use exception. Good luck getting c-19 shots being required past your corporate legal dept. The reality is that there would be a revolt in the population as a whole as vaccine hesitancy is so stupidly high. There would be a flood of people asking their GP to issue an exemption.


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## Poppy (Mar 4, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> And where does it go from there? Insurance companies and big companies having all that power?
> Well let's see here Mr JRT, it says here you didn't get your flu stot last year, you're fired". "Your analytics say you've got high trigricerides, you're outta here"……
> 
> And tell the families of the 1300+ people who have died from complications of the vaccine "get your shot or you don't get to enter the baseball stadium?"
> ...


After reading the link posted, your interpretation is mistaken. According to the link there were no deaths related to the vaccine. 

Over 76 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through March 1, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 1,381 reports of death (0.0018%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. CDC and FDA physicians review each case report of death as soon as notified and CDC requests medical records to further assess reports. A review of available clinical information including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records revealed no evidence that vaccination contributed to patient deaths.


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 4, 2021)

*The possibility of anaphylaxis is the most immediate concern after any type of vaccination. That's why patients are typically observed for 15 to 30 minutes after receiving a shot. If it's going to happen it will usually occur quickly after vaccination. I heard of a few reactions happening overseas but they were quickly remediated with an epinephrine-type treatment. *


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## idleprocess (Mar 4, 2021)

turbodog said:


> The biggest legal impediment is that the FDA issued an EMERGENCY use exception. Good luck getting c-19 shots being required past your corporate legal dept. The reality is that there would be a revolt in the population as a whole as vaccine hesitancy is so stupidly high. There would be a flood of people asking their GP to issue an exemption.



These specific vaccines at this specific time, sure. But in the future the legalities will change, there will be more information on the vaccines, and it may well be like childhood vaccinations, no-smoking policies, drug testing, and numerous other mandates placed upon people as a condition for certain fundamental things in life.


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## nbp (Mar 4, 2021)

Kestrel said:


> It would help if parties that declined the vaccination, would get notification that their insurers would refuse to pay for any subsequent COVID-related health care expenses; that would go a way towards solving a couple of problems.



Considering they don’t do this for a myriad other risky behaviors I don’t see it happening now. They dont refuse treatment for smokers and vapers, people who have several alcoholic drinks per day, people who use abuse drugs, people with multiple sexual partners, people who eat too much fast food, people who are overweight, people who don’t manage their diabetes effectively, people who don’t wear seatbelts, people who race motorcycles or ski down mountains, or any other preventable risky or self destructive behavior. These things kill hundreds of thousands every year like clockwork and no one gets outraged at all. If the 600 lb person or the chainsmoker gets treated so should the person who chooses not to get a COVID19 vaccination.


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## bykfixer (Mar 5, 2021)

I'm fascinated by the perspective of people posting in this one. Not a right or wrong, agree or disagree type thing. Just a "well that's one persons perspective".
Like the old saying "you do not know what it's like for the other until you've walked a mile in their shoes. 

It seems some a very concerned about the virus. Some are not. Most are somewhere in between.


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## Katherine Alicia (Mar 5, 2021)

nbp said:


> They dont refuse treatment for smokers and vapers, people who have several alcoholic drinks per day, people who use abuse drugs, people with multiple sexual partners, people who eat too much fast food, people who are overweight, people who don’t manage their diabetes effectively, people who don’t wear seatbelts, people who race motorcycles or ski down mountains, or any other preventable risky or self destructive behavior. These things kill hundreds of thousands every year like clockwork and no one gets outraged at all. If the 600 lb person or the chainsmoker gets treated so should the person who chooses not to get a COVID19 vaccination.



if you have a good look at that list, you`ll notice (with the possible exception of multiple sex partners) that all of these involve only risk to Self, I wouldn`t expect anyone to be outraged at this. Refusing to have the vaccine or self isolate is a direct risk to others and those people need to be held accountable for it.
It seems so many today know more about their rights than their responsibilities, it`s a very selfish, self important, me, me, me age we live in


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## nbp (Mar 5, 2021)

That is a topic I see a lot of confusion on, Katherine. So far there is not good data to prove that the vaccine will prevent you from transmitting viral particles, only that it will prevent the recipient themselves from illness. If/when it is proven that the vaccine can/will prevent you from being able to spread the virus, then that argument will definitely hold water. If it turns out it only protects the vaccinated person and does not prevent them from shedding viral particles, then it really is up to each individual as to whether they want that protection for themselves. I am very interested in the findings on this topic.

Tangentially, I would say that second hand smoke damage and the risks to others by those who drive under the influence of drugs and alcohol are in fact very real also.


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## markr6 (Mar 5, 2021)

I just saw some talk about the vaccine preventing spread as well. One study was from Israel, or maybe just some evidence so far. It'll take time to know for sure. Of course it seems like it would depend on timing as well...did you get the shot last week or a month ago.

In the US we are about 7-12% fully vaccinated and 15-20% partially depending on the state. Getting things rolling.


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## Katherine Alicia (Mar 5, 2021)

100% if these things are done around others then it is dangerous, it`s a bit like the old saying something to the effect of ` your right to wave your fists about, ends where the other persons nose starts`. 

I remember hearing something said by one of our .Gov science advisors that the vaccine will lower the chances of passing it on but there`s no percentage worked out yet, my concern is that if enough people don`t get vaccinated and within a certain timeframe (this applies globally) that there will be variants appear that will put us ALL in danger again. this whole covid thing started with a single person and now look at it, it only takes One and we`re all screwed again.
We managed to get rid of smallpox, so I`m sure it can be done again as long as there are no hosts keeping it `alive`, we certainly owe it to each other to try.


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## idleprocess (Mar 5, 2021)

nbp said:


> That is a topic I see a lot of confusion on, Katherine. So far there is not good data to prove that the vaccine will prevent you from transmitting viral particles, only that it will prevent the recipient themselves from illness. If/when it is proven that the vaccine can/will prevent you from being able to spread the virus, then that argument will definitely hold water. If it turns out it only protects the vaccinated person and does not prevent them from shedding viral particles, then it really is up to each individual as to whether they want that protection for themselves. I am very interested in the findings on this topic.



Absolutely prevent you from shedding particles? Probably not - being vaccinated and producing antibodies isn't an impenetrable shield by any means. And for those for whom get sick anyway and their immune system simply gets an upper hand on the infection because of the vaccine odds are they'll be shedding enough particles to infect someone else who doesn't take precautions. But if it works like most other vaccines and effectively prevents an infection from taking root for a strong majority of those vaccinated, odds are quite high that any viral load you might be shedding won't expel enough particles to infect another person not taking precautions since there will be so few particles being produced.


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## nbp (Mar 5, 2021)

@Katherine. Yes, all true. My armchair expert prediction is that people will probably have to get shots annually or at least at some regular interval like the flu. Experts are saying that it could take into 2023 or even 2024 to get the whole world vaccinated so it will be circulating for some time.


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## nbp (Mar 5, 2021)

As an aside, I am not any kind of anti-vaxxer. I trust that these vaccines are probably as safe as any of the other ones people regularly take. But it gets a little weird when some folks start talking about forcing medical treatments on people, so I think that is an area that requires care and sensitivity and patience. We should all show love and concern for our neighbor and their safety, but also respect their feelings about medical care. It is a delicate balance. That was my only point really.


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## bykfixer (Mar 5, 2021)

I just attended a company luncheon with 26 people who talked mostly about current events, yet not one word about the pandemic. We all entered the restaraunt wearing a mask but once in the meeting room everybody removed them. One person said "I'll be glad when I won't need this anymore" pointing to the mask and another said "me too". That was the total extent of the conversation related to the pandemic. 

The table had 28 chairs for 26 people. I had a chair between me and the fellow next to me. At the other end the oldest person in the room did the same. Like me, he instinctively took a spot with a gap and set his jacket in the unused chair. I would have done that before the pandemic for two reasons. First, it's flu season and my habits had been to do that years ago. Second, my elbow won't bump my neighbor while cutting my steak. So in say 10 years when the pandemic has passed us by I will still pick a spot with a gap between the next person away if available. Maybe by then everybody on planet earth that wants one will have received the covid-19 innoculation.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 5, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> I just attended a company luncheon with 26 people who talked mostly about current events, yet not one word about the pandemic. We all entered the restaraunt wearing a mask but once in the meeting room everybody removed them. One person said "I'll be glad when I won't need this anymore" pointing to the mask and another said "me too". That was the total extent of the conversation related to the pandemic.
> 
> The table had 28 chairs for 26 people. I had a chair between me and the fellow next to me. At the other end the oldest person in the room did the same. Like me, he instinctively took a spot with a gap and set his jacket in the unused chair. I would have done that before the pandemic for two reasons. First, it's flu season and my habits had been to do that years ago. Second, my elbow won't bump my neighbor while cutting my steak. So in say 10 years when the pandemic has passed us by I will still pick a spot with a gap between the next person away if available. Maybe by then everybody on planet earth that wants one will have received the covid-19 innoculation.


I'll probably be wearing a mask indefinitely whenever I'm in a indoor public place (but not outdoors) once this is over. I don't like being sidelined by colds, or more occasionally the flu. I'll also continue to keep at least 6 feet away from people indoors for the same reason. I figure I'll not only avoid seasonal illnesses by doing this but if another pandemic starts before I'm aware of it the mask will at least offer some protection. Of course, if we start disinfecting public spaces continuously with UV-C I won't feel a need to do these things.

I'm no longer going to stadiums, theaters, indoor restaurants, or anything similar, ever. Even in the best of times these places are like petri dishes. Besides, it's not like I went to them that often anyway.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 5, 2021)

nbp said:


> As an aside, I am not any kind of anti-vaxxer. I trust that these vaccines are probably as safe as any of the other ones people regularly take. But it gets a little weird when some folks start talking about forcing medical treatments on people, so I think that is an area that requires care and sensitivity and patience. We should all show love and concern for our neighbor and their safety, but also respect their feelings about medical care. It is a delicate balance. That was my only point really.


Just to be clear, I highly doubt most here want to force people to get vaccinated. My position is work places and schools should eventually require it, same as they require other vaccinations. That basically still leaves people with a choice. Sure, they'll have to work at home and home school their children if they refuse vaccination, but it's still up to them whether or not to get vaccinated.

I also don't understand the entire anti-vaxxer thing. Most of the issues with vaccines existed for types of vaccines which are not even used any more. My understanding of the covid-19 vaccine is that it simply puts messenger RNA into your blood so you make antibodies. The messenger RNA is quickly flushed from your body, within a day I believe. The only side effects might be anaphylaxis but there's nothing in the vaccine which could cause long-term side effects. It's puzzling why some people worry about vaccines, or other things with extremely low potential to harm you, but are fine sitting in automobiles where they breathe a toxic stew of known carcinogens from outgassing plastics and auto exhaust day in and day out. Or eat food laced with all sorts of carcinogenic chemicals.


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## turbodog (Mar 5, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> I'll probably be wearing a mask indefinitely whenever I'm in a indoor public place (but not outdoors) once this is over. I don't like being sidelined by colds, or more occasionally the flu. I'll also continue to keep at least 6 feet away from people indoors for the same reason. I figure I'll not only avoid seasonal illnesses by doing this but if another pandemic starts before I'm aware of it the mask will at least offer some protection. Of course, if we start disinfecting public spaces continuously with UV-C I won't feel a need to do these things.
> 
> I'm no longer going to stadiums, theaters, indoor restaurants, or anything similar, ever. Even in the best of times these places are like petri dishes. Besides, it's not like I went to them that often anyway.



I an curious to see the long term effect of this on behavior in general. I was never a handshaker, don't miss it, and hope it never comes back. Seen too many sneezes in the hand and so on...


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## markr6 (Mar 5, 2021)

I will say, I did not get my usual chest cold around chirstmas. Dirty nasty people cleaning up their act


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## jtr1962 (Mar 5, 2021)

turbodog said:


> I an curious to see the long term effect of this on behavior in general. I was never a handshaker, don't miss it, and hope it never comes back. Seen too many sneezes in the hand and so on...


I'm fine myself if handshakes go the way of the dodo. I've seen too many people leaving the stall in the men's room without washing their hands. :sick2:


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 5, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> I'm fine myself if handshakes go the way of the dodo. I've seen too many people leaving the stall in the men's room without washing their hands. :sick2:



Weren't handshakes originally a way of showing that you didn't have a weapon in your hands?


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## markr6 (Mar 8, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> I'm fine myself if handshakes go the way of the dodo. I've seen too many people leaving the stall in the men's room without washing their hands. :sick2:



#2, even if it was a fakeout, requires a hand wash. Just an unwritten rule. I touch NOTHING inside restrooms.


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## markr6 (Mar 8, 2021)

CDC says vaccinated individuals can gather indoors without masks now...for now.


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## idleprocess (Mar 8, 2021)

Got shot #1 this evening. Didn't grow a 4th eye and no one seemed to care about the 3rd eye. We'll see what tomorrow brings.


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 8, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> Got shot #1 this evening. Didn't grow a 4th eye and no one seemed to care about the 3rd eye. We'll see what tomorrow brings.




That third arm is coming in handy though. Makes soldering a breeze.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 8, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> Got shot #1 this evening. Didn't grow a 4th eye and no one seemed to care about the 3rd eye. We'll *see* what tomorrow brings.



Hopefully, better vision. And yes, I saw what you did there.


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## bykfixer (Mar 9, 2021)

markr6 said:


> CDC says vaccinated individuals can gather indoors without masks now...for now.



LOL, 
But has Fauchi approved that


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## ledbetter (Mar 9, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> LOL,
> But has Fauchi approved that


 His name is Dr. Anthony Fauci. Show some respect.


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## markr6 (Mar 9, 2021)

ledbetter said:


> His name is Dr. Anthony Fauci. Show some respect.




Lil' Tony


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## ledbetter (Mar 9, 2021)

markr6 said:


> Lil' Tony


Quoting America’s best and brightest, huh? LMAO!!


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## Lynx_Arc (Mar 9, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> LOL,
> But has Fauchi approved that



If he has, I wouldn't put it past him to change his mind a month later when someone else says otherwise.


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## ledbetter (Mar 9, 2021)

Lynx_Arc said:


> If he has, I wouldn't put it past him to change his mind a month later when someone else says otherwise.


The beauty of science is its continual renewal based on changing and verified observed facts.


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## markr6 (Mar 9, 2021)

ledbetter said:


> Quoting America’s best and brightest, huh? LMAO!!




Oh I didn't even know about that! LOL I had to Google it. I don't follow new music at all...since about 2000.


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## Lynx_Arc (Mar 9, 2021)

ledbetter said:


> The beauty of science is its continual renewal based on changing and verified observed facts.


Believe that if you want to, I believe truth and science can be ugly especially when a hard core scientist risks everything to find the truth and it turns the world from flat to round. We have way too many scientists unwilling to risk it all for the truth they would rather cave to peer pressure and keep their grants and jobs and "hope" that change to truth happens than be homeless and poor, to them a lie is easy to digest. Many are no better than politicians these days IMO.


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## turbodog (Mar 9, 2021)

Lynx_Arc said:


> Believe that if you want to, I believe truth and science can be ugly especially when a hard core scientist risks everything to find the truth and it turns the world from flat to round. We have way too many scientists unwilling to risk it all for the truth they would rather cave to peer pressure and keep their grants and jobs and "hope" that change to truth happens than be homeless and poor, to them a lie is easy to digest. Many are no better than politicians these days IMO.



Truth is taught down the hall in the philosophy dept. Facts are what we are looking for. (shout out to Harrison Ford)

I think it's subtle... and some of this stuff is actually unknowable.

Example: mask usage

Pro:
even cloth masks filter to some degree, particularly on exhales from infected person
constant reminder to be careful, stay apart, wash hands

Con:
improper adjustment leads to a person touching their face when & where they should not
leads to false sense of security, entices risky actions

So... write an equation calculating probability of mask usage/non-usage helping/hurting for the 1) population as a whole 2) specific subgroups (elderly, healthcare, ignorant rednecks, etc). Now, communicate some VERY complex & predictive math to the nation as a whole, given the average person reads at about a 8th grade level.

Truth/fact does not necessarily equal the right thing to do. And even if you know what that is (very questionable) good luck achieving it.


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## Lynx_Arc (Mar 9, 2021)

turbodog said:


> Truth is taught down the hall in the philosophy dept. Facts are what we are looking for. (shout out to Harrison Ford)
> 
> I think it's subtle... and some of this stuff is actually unknowable.
> 
> ...


If masks were only 10% effective and most people were misusing them and because of them people were not paying attention to distances around them often closer them 3 feet from you do you think they are worth using? That is what I constantly see now in stores going on.
Without facts or even a very very good educated guess we are lead to believe that they will keep us from being infected but if they are only 25 or 50% effective do you think the public needs to know and adjust the way they interact with the virus going around?
If they are 75% effective how many people can afford to risk a 25% chance of infection? 
Like you said... it is IMO unknowable and mandating masks IMO is all but worthless to many who are getting infected out there wearing them. Most places I go everyone is wearing a mask yet we still have lots infected so apparently they aren't working that well.
We don't really have much in the way of science but rather people trying to figure out something that can be represented statistically regarding mask usage and my contention is either they are absolutely unable to even guess or the numbers aren't encouraging enough to reveal them to the public for fear people will freak out.
Science doesn't deal in opinions but facts... no facts then we aren't in the realm of "beauty" and "science" but political narratives and opinions often to profit people who can dial in on a way to make money over lockdowns and fear.


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## idleprocess (Mar 9, 2021)

turbodog said:


> leads to false sense of security, entices risky actions


Moral hazard is a very real risk in these situations that can take _monumental effort_ to correct if the wrong signals are sent early on.



turbodog said:


> So... write an equation calculating probability of mask usage/non-usage helping/hurting for the 1) population as a whole 2) specific subgroups (elderly, healthcare, ignorant rednecks, etc). Now, communicate some VERY complex & predictive math to the nation as a whole, given the average person reads at about a 8th grade level.



Also, do this when...

The available information is incomplete, speculative, and/or contains errors
The behavior of the general public in the face of a threat most is almost wholly unknown since most people alive have never experienced something like this
Policymakers pressing you for a decision with huge error bars
Knowing that the media is going to run with the juiciest hot take
And despite steady refinement to the model week over week - as well as preventative measures kneecapping the initial upper bound - you're still going to be hounded for that initial figure by the peanut gallery _*>13 months later*_ about how 'scientists got it wrong'

People freak the f___ out over Ebola which is a horrible disease but has killed less than 20,000 people since first being described in 1976. Meanwhile despite dire warnings, lockdowns, mask mandates, many suddenly washing their hands regularly for the first times in their lives, and numerous _other oft-decried measures_ COVID-19 has killed 25 times as many people as Ebola in the span of a little more than a year in just the United States. Despite significant improvements in therapies for the sick and effective vaccines being developed in record time it's predicted to continue getting worse.

And even today with the vaccines there's grumbling about how long until someone is considered immune, rage that face masks aren't being eliminated, anger that gatherings are still being restricted or simply suggested to be restricted ... despite the vaccine being available in quantity for a mere ~3 months and an abundance of caution being the sensible course until it is better understood and the guidance can be adjusted based on more data.


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## turbodog (Mar 9, 2021)

Lynx_Arc said:


> ...
> Like you said... it is IMO unknowable and mandating masks IMO is all but worthless to many who are getting infected out there wearing them. Most places I go everyone is wearing a mask yet we still have lots infected so apparently they aren't working that well.
> ...



With respect, I think you made my point for me. And you are assuming that just because some people are infected with usage then they don't work. What if they are working... and no masks would be way worse?

My point is that public health POLICY is just that, POLICY. You've got to make a mandate that overall works for society as a whole. Yes, people will fall through the gaps. But overall it's the best recommendation.


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## turbodog (Mar 9, 2021)

I'll talk about PUBLIC health policy a little more... as something just hit me like a ton of bricks.

Earlier today, a CPF member sent me a PM about a drug that _could_ show great promise as a tool to fill in some gaps while we get people vaccinated. It's cheap, _probably_ highly effective, and with a good safety record.

So, no brainer, right?

Well... not so fast. It's also a known drug that, in a roundabout way, either prevents pregnancy or is not allowed for pregnant women. So, even better! Win-Win, right?

So what happens in ~6 years when we have a huge gap in schoolkids? What does this do to education? Don't need first grade teachers since there a very few new first graders. Then the gap moves down the line, and eventually we have a year with no college grads and no generation entering the workforce.

Stuff like this crashes entire economies. So the facts are that drug "X" solves a ton of covid problems, but will destroy your economy, in stages, over the next 22 years. These decisions, even when we try to be impartial, are complex to say the least.


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## Lynx_Arc (Mar 9, 2021)

turbodog said:


> With respect, I think you made my point for me. And you are assuming that just because some people are infected with usage then they don't work. What if they are working... and no masks would be way worse?
> 
> My point is that public health POLICY is just that, POLICY. You've got to make a mandate that overall works for society as a whole. Yes, people will fall through the gaps. But overall it's the best recommendation.


The problem is without facts and solid statistics we don't really know if masks are working well enough to counteract the easing up on cautiousness concerning this virus of people who wear them. When nobody was wearing masks I would go to stores they would limit how many could come in the store and enforce distancing rules and had lines and arrows and stuff. With masks distancing is about halfway adhered to and stores have about twice the people in them now in some cases and people are crowding each other too. In other words masks are psychologically making people feel safer than I believe they are effective and that "feeling safe" bit is making people wreckless which IMO is actually having a negative affect on halting the spread of the virus as instead of staying 6 feet or more away, we see poor examples on even an AMAZON commercial on TV where two people who cannot understand themselves because of wearing masks are almost ear to ear both reading on the same smart phone... hey this is a low price... They aren't even a foot and a half apart because... masks.
I watched a volleyball game on live tv the other night women college game. Everyone was wearing masks and I noticed that about half the girls were moving the masks and scratching their face because it was irritating them and pulling them down to take a breath at times and then guess what? they were all hitting the same ball back and forth and rubbing their mask and face. If they had no masks on they would probably be LESS likely to be infected by the virus because the need to tough the mask and their face.. would be GONE.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 9, 2021)

Lynx_Arc said:


> The problem is without facts and solid statistics we don't really know if masks are working well enough to counteract the easing up on cautiousness concerning this virus of people who wear them. When nobody was wearing masks I would go to stores they would limit how many could come in the store and enforce distancing rules and had lines and arrows and stuff. With masks distancing is about halfway adhered to and stores have about twice the people in them now in some cases and people are crowding each other too. In other words masks are psychologically making people feel safer than I believe they are effective and that "feeling safe" bit is making people wreckless which IMO is actually having a negative affect on halting the spread of the virus as instead of staying 6 feet or more away, we see poor examples on even an AMAZON commercial on TV where two people who cannot understand themselves because of wearing masks are almost ear to ear both reading on the same smart phone... hey this is a low price... They aren't even a foot and a half apart because... masks.
> I watched a volleyball game on live tv the other night women college game. Everyone was wearing masks and I noticed that about half the girls were moving the masks and scratching their face because it was irritating them and pulling them down to take a breath at times and then guess what? they were all hitting the same ball back and forth and rubbing their mask and face. If they had no masks on they would probably be LESS likely to be infected by the virus because the need to tough the mask and their face.. would be GONE.


And yet the countries which followed the science, as imperfect as it may be, did much better:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-korea

You're conflating measures which work when implemented properly with the failure of a large part of the population to either implement these measures correctly, or even at all. Your description of what's happening in stores is a perfect example. If you have a non-compliant and/or largely uneducated public (both are true in the US), there are only two real choices we had. One is to prevent the virus from reaching the US in large numbers. That boat sailed probably by January 2020, perhaps earlier. The other is to just shut down everything but non-essential services, and force people to shelter in place at home, perhaps delivering groceries regularly to enable this. Partial shutdowns can also work with success, as they did in NYC through the summer.

The biggest problem I see is we're too quick to try to get back to "normal" whenever the numbers drop. We have the summer wave in lots of the country. Measures to slow it were somewhat successful. The should have remained in place to reduce numbers further by the fall. Instead, we started opening things up too early. Then the holiday season compounded things. We should have shut down air travel, and severely restricted the highways to only essential traffic. We would have been in a great place now. As we started vaccinating people, maybe this month we could have slowly reopened things. By late summer things could have been almost back to normal. Instead, I'd say best case we might get back to normal by late fall if we don't have problems with variants. And we'll probably be looking at 600,000+ dead by then, versus well under 100,000 if we had done the things I mentioned.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 9, 2021)

turbodog said:


> So, no brainer, right?
> 
> Well... not so fast. It's also a known drug that, in a roundabout way, either prevents pregnancy or is not allowed for pregnant women. So, even better! Win-Win, right?
> 
> ...


Well, we're already facing this to a lesser degree:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sperm-count-dropping-in-western-world/

In a century or two we might be facing the scenario from the movie Children of Men

Bad for us but in truth the planet would be far better off if we went extinct.


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## turbodog (Mar 9, 2021)

Lynx_Arc said:


> The problem is without facts and solid statistics we don't really know if masks are working well enough ...



Think we can chalk this up to American exceptionalism. Didn't Taiwan, South Korea, and some other countries do extremely well in containing it?

But back to policy... you get to pick telling people a very simple set of recommendations. Can't leave it up to 'good judgement'. If everyone's judgement was that good we would not be in this trouble.

And for the record, I am against the premature decisions made by TX/MS governors. I don't know about TX, but MS is not a leader in healthcare that you want to follow.


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## nbp (Mar 9, 2021)

@Lynx Arc

The fact that you still think “everyone is masking but cases still went up so masks don’t work” tells me you don’t actually go to any Of the places where the virus has been primarily spreading to see how people actually behave. Your anecdotal evidence is flawed at best. If your only sample is the grocery store or your workplace where things are constantly sanitized and 90+% of people are masked I could see why you might think that. That isn’t where people are getting sick. Why don’t you visit some bars, restaurants, gyms, churches, college campuses, holiday parties, and see how people actually operate. You might be surprised. And take into consideration that many places never had a mask mandate or let it expire. If you don’t want to wear a mask just be honest and say “hey I hate these masks and I am not interested in doing even the smallest thing that might help my neighbors be safe”. We all know that’s what it is anyways. But don’t come around with your junk science claiming everyone followed rules and they didn’t work when we know a huge number of people basically did nothing to follow the rules.


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## idleprocess (Mar 9, 2021)

turbodog said:


> And for the record, I am against the premature decisions made by TX/MS governors. I don't know about TX, but MS is not a leader in healthcare that you want to follow.



Yeah, uhm, TX ain't so hot either. Highest percentage residents uninsured:

#50 Becker's Hospital Review
#50 America's Health Rankings
#50 US News

With regard to overall _rankings_, TX fares better per US News at 31 aggregate with Healthcare Access / Healthcare Quality / Public Health ratings of 45 / 39 / 18 respectively. The last is really surprising but local county public health agencies have been _*sleeper* impressive_ in their mass vaccination site planning and execution, vaccinating thousands of people per day with excellent organization - a bright spot in the state's otherwise subpar response to the crisis.


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## Lynx_Arc (Mar 9, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> And yet the countries which followed the science, as imperfect as it may be, did much better:
> 
> https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-korea
> 
> ...


Ironic you talk about figures and have "bought in" to the idea that we aren't doing absolutely fantastic with this pandemic in fact we have greatly surpassed even blown away what the 1918 pandemic figures were. I estimated that at 500k deaths based upon the population percentage compared to 1918 our efforts would have lowered their 600k to 180k and their 600k then would be the same as about 2.1M now so we should think instead of saving 100k more think we are 1.5 million LESS than we should be and people are all freaking out over that extreme success?


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## idleprocess (Mar 10, 2021)

Lynx_Arc said:


> Ironic you talk about figures and have "bought in" to the idea that we aren't doing absolutely fantastic with this pandemic in fact we have greatly surpassed even blown away what the 1918 pandemic figures were. I estimated that at 500k deaths based upon the population percentage compared to 1918 our efforts would have lowered their 600k to 180k and their 600k then would be the same as about 2.1M now so we should think instead of saving 100k more think we are 1.5 million LESS than we should be and people are all freaking out over that extreme success?



Bad analogy - the needle has moved _considerably_ over the last century. Take life expectancy - 53.22 in 1920, 78.81 in 2020 or *twenty-five* more years. Or look at the common causes of death in 1920 vs 2010 - numerous common causes of death in 1920 have either vanished or have greatly reduced _(cardiovascular disease and cancer are notable exceptions; the former due to increasingly sedentary lifestyles and "modern diets", the latter likely due to better diagnoses and longer lifespans)_.

The comparison to South Korea - another advanced economy - is _quite_ apt and the stark differences in responses correlate very strongly to the *huge* divergence in outcomes. Per Worldmeters.info : 

*United States* : 29M cases | 540k deaths | 89k cases / million | 1627 deaths / million
*South Korea* : 93k cases| 1648 deaths | 1827 cases / million | 32 deaths / million
We're doing things _*very wrong*_ relative to South Korea.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 10, 2021)

Lynx_Arc said:


> Ironic you talk about figures and have "bought in" to the idea that we aren't doing absolutely fantastic with this pandemic in fact we have greatly surpassed even blown away what the 1918 pandemic figures were. I estimated that at 500k deaths based upon the population percentage compared to 1918 our efforts would have lowered their 600k to 180k and their 600k then would be the same as about 2.1M now so we should think instead of saving 100k more think we are 1.5 million LESS than we should be and people are all freaking out over that extreme success?


Back in 1918 we didn't have the tools we have now. We didn't have effective treatments, and we didn't develop a vaccine at all, much less within a year after the virus surfaced. The best comparison of how the US did isn't to compare us to how we did in 1918. It's to compare us to how other countries did now. The death rate per million people in the US is now at 1633. Japan is at 66, Australia is at 35, South Korea is at 32, New Zealand is at 5. Taiwan and Vietnam are at 0.4! If the US had that death rate only a little over 100 people would have died. Or if you want to compare us with a country on the same continent, Canada is at 587. The US is number 12 in death rate out of over 200 countries. Not something to be proud of, and certainly not "absolutely fantastic" as you say. The one great thing we helped do was to quickly get vaccines. If only we had taken measures before then to slow the spread. Also, I totally don't understand stuff like what's happening in Texas and Mississippi. Now with vaccines, the end is in sight. All we have to do is hunker down a few more months. So why risk more spread and the possibility of more variants by opening things up now, never mind getting rid of mask mandates which is something I was flabbergasted by? Masks are the one thing which allows you to keep more things open.


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## markr6 (Mar 10, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> The comparison to South Korea - another advanced economy - is _quite_ apt and the stark differences in responses correlate very strongly to the *huge* divergence in outcomes. Per Worldmeters.info :
> 
> *United States* : 29M cases | 540k deaths | 89k cases / million | 1627 deaths / million
> *South Korea* : 93k cases| 1648 deaths | 1827 cases / million | 32 deaths / million
> We're doing things _*very wrong*_ relative to South Korea.



Lots going on here though. It's a small country, a peninsula surrounded by water and North Korea. Even if their population density was 100x higher than the US, the differences in infrastructure, healthy system and previous experience with SARS and MERS make it an apples and hammers comparison. That last point is key and likely the main reason why everyone took it seriously...and may have even had masks stashed in their residences prepared for the next one. And I'm not sure how their country is organized, but I'm sure it's not 50 separate areas doing whatever they feel like.


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## idleprocess (Mar 10, 2021)

markr6 said:


> Lots going on here though. It's a small country, a peninsula surrounded by water and North Korea. Even if their population density was 100x higher than the US, the differences in infrastructure, healthy system and previous experience with SARS and MERS make it an apples and hammers comparison. That last point is key and likely the main reason why everyone took it seriously...and may have even had masks stashed in their residences prepared for the next one. And I'm not sure how their country is organized, but I'm sure it's not 50 separate areas doing whatever they feel like.



Ah, but with that density (something like >50% of the population living in the Seoul metro area) comes _*NYC-like conditions*_ yet they managed it like a champ. And despite the geographical and structural differences, _we're still doing things wrong_.

But hey, how about our neighbor to the north that's more similar?

*Canada* : 893k cases | 22k deaths | 53k cases / million | 587 deaths / million
60% of the per-capita caseload, 36% of the mortality relative to the US.


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## markr6 (Mar 10, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> _*NYC-like conditions*_ yet they managed it like a champ.



I would expect that for the reasons I listed above. Hopefully everyone can learn from this...but I doubt it.


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## turbodog (Mar 10, 2021)

markr6 said:


> ...And I'm not sure how their country is organized, but I'm sure it's not 50 separate areas doing whatever they feel like.



I've said this before, but it bears repeating. People forget that the USA is literally United *STATES* of America. 50 states with their own governors, health depts, etc. Heck... and the US is so large that we span several time zones and climates. These are additional challenges that many countries don't face.

That said... given our money and possibilities... we should had led the world in response to this threat. I give us a "D" at best in regards to preparation, prevention, communication, etc. I give healthcare an "A+" for dedication to try and keep us from killing ourselves.


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## markr6 (Mar 10, 2021)

I wonder how many other countries politicize everything...EVERYTHING...as much as we do.


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## scout24 (Mar 10, 2021)

I'm not sure, markr6. What I am sure of though is that things here in this thread have been drifting in that direction again. I understand as well as anyone it's a hot button topic and everyone has opinions and thoughts as to the political aspect of the virus. And I understand for some these threads are a place to vent or make their opinion known with relative annonymity and safety, no blowback or reprisal in real life. I implore you all to stop so there's a place here on CPF to discuss the myriad of other facets of the pandemic without bringing politics back in and having the entire topic be shut down hard. Please use "Downstairs" or hold your peace...


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