# Pandemic supply chain in your area



## Poppy (Aug 4, 2020)

While New Jersey and NYC were the epicenter of covid-19 for months, many if not all states of the USA experienced food and/or toiletries shortages due to populace hording of such items. For the most part supplies have caught up to demand, here.

However, I suspect that NJ will not be able to sustain the relatively low levels of infection spread much longer. We are starting to see rising numbers of infection rate. It is blamed on younger people socially gathering. I wonder, will we see hording of food, TP, paper towels, and sanitizers, with the accompanying shortages of those products, when the $hit hits the fan again?

Yesterday, I went to Costco to pick up TP, and paper towels to store in preparation, just in case. I was limited to ONE package of TP, and there were NO paper towels in the warehouse.

How are things in your area?


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## raggie33 (Aug 4, 2020)

i dont understand why there is a shortage i mean we are not pooping more


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## bykfixer (Aug 4, 2020)

Our stores are stocked with "off brand" toilet paper and some regular brand. We figure it must be the kind normally bought by cruise ships, hotels and restaraunts. 

Rice is still a hit or miss thing along with numerous household cleaning products and of all things dishwaher powder. Plenty of liquid though. 

The Mrs like chocolate covered vanilla ice cream bars and those are as rare as an honest politician lately. None to be had in store brand or name brand. So it is kinda strange the things we are in short supply of. 

My son works at a big name drug store and says thermometers are finally starting to show up again but sell out faster than a 2 for 1 beer sale. 

Another thing missing is my favorite mixture of leafy veggies (spinach, chards and kale). They don't even have a space for them anymore. Those are great for glucose control and I switched to all spinach and "spring mix" until they return. 

Last week breakfast pork products like bacon, sausage and ham were all gone. Taco shells are hit or miss as well. But there's plenty of Red Baron pizzas and broccoli now. They seemed to be the panic buyers favorites back in March along with ramen noodles, which are back. 

My state is having a gentle spike. Case numbers in the 900's each day with the 20-29 group taking a whopping lead over the other age groups. My governor closed bars at 10pm in one area. We figure covid must not come out to play until after 9:30 there? I have to keep reminding the youngsters I work with to stay at arms length. I tell them us old folks have a new version that causes the under 30 crowd to grow hair out of their ears and nose. 

Anyway, supplies in my state seem pretty stable right now as we cut into our stockpile of non perishables and add a little back each week. We had stockpiled bird products and are rotating those as well before freezer burn sets in. Oh, and the coin shortage seems to be mostly gone as well.


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## Katherine Alicia (Aug 4, 2020)

Over here a lot of factories are being hit with new outbreaks of c19 and are being shut down as a result, so random things are missing from the shelves quite regularly, last week it was pre-packaged sandwich meats, because a factory up north somewhere where they produce these got hit.
other than that, things seem to be almost back to "normal" again.


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## Devildude (Aug 4, 2020)

Here in central New York things are spotty on cleaning supplies. Canned meat is hit or miss. Plenty of tp though and paper towels are available. There are some weird holes but hey sometimes it depends on what day or time you go out. I try to hit the stores during the week as most people wait for the weekend to shop and being on third shift helps. Most stores are well stocked in the morning.


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## turbodog (Aug 4, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> i dont understand why there is a shortage i mean we are not pooping more



We are, sort of. TP makers make a certain amount of commercial TP for use at work/restaurants/other businesses. With those shutdown, people are going at home more... a lot more. This causes a shortage of the home type TP.


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## Lynx_Arc (Aug 4, 2020)

Things are pretty stable here but spotty at times from store to store usually if you need something most stores have it in stock but a few will be out of it. Since we are in the middle of the country and right next door to Walmart's home in Arkansas we often have things here before other states and keep stocks of stuff more. I've always kept canned and packaged food in stock as sometimes I get working a lot at a job and don't want to have to go to the store till the weekends so I need over a week of food in reserve but when I find sales I often stock up for 2-4 weeks of some items. I bought a big box of TP enough to last about a year and a half at Sam's finally when they got it back in stock. 
I notice generic canned pasta is out of stock almost all the time now here though I usually have a dozen cans of it and buy it 6 cans at a time at one place and a dozen cans at another that used to be cheaper priced. The one thing I do miss is they no longer have Cherry Vanilla Coke in cans anywhere. I guess maybe the price of vanilla spiked or something.


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## turbodog (Aug 4, 2020)

There is shortage of aluminum cans due to people drinking a lot more at home. Coke probably cut back their non-core product mix to compensate.


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## Lynx_Arc (Aug 4, 2020)

turbodog said:


> There is shortage of aluminum cans due to people drinking a lot more at home. Coke probably cut back their non-core product mix to compensate.


That is quite possible as the supply chains have been tortured by this virus and the lockdowns even though things seem to be appearing often you have shortages of supplies and people to manufacture things and truckers to haul them and so on. I just hope they don't do away with cash self service registers at places because of change shortages as I don't really like to charge $4 worth of stuff so I don't have to wait 20 minute in line at a full service checkout.


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## ledbetter (Aug 4, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> Things are pretty stable here but spotty at times from store to store usually if you need something most stores have it in stock but a few will be out of it. Since we are in the middle of the country and right next door to Walmart's home in Arkansas we often have things here before other states and keep stocks of stuff more. I've always kept canned and packaged food in stock as sometimes I get working a lot at a job and don't want to have to go to the store till the weekends so I need over a week of food in reserve but when I find sales I often stock up for 2-4 weeks of some items. I bought a big box of TP enough to last about a year and a half at Sam's finally when they got it back in stock.
> I notice generic canned pasta is out of stock almost all the time now here though I usually have a dozen cans of it and buy it 6 cans at a time at one place and a dozen cans at another that used to be cheaper priced. The one thing I do miss is they no longer have Cherry Vanilla Coke in cans anywhere. I guess maybe the price of vanilla spiked or something.


i may sound like a snob, but I think I’d rather starve than eat canned pasta with cherry Vanilla Coke. Dry pasta keeps a long time and all you have to do is boil water. Add some tomato paste and water, wine, butter, oil, whatever and voila!


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## Quillz (Aug 4, 2020)

Here in the my area which is the Central Valley of California the latest hoarding item seems to be canned Spam.


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## Lynx_Arc (Aug 4, 2020)

ledbetter said:


> i may sound like a snob, but I think I’d rather starve than eat canned pasta with cherry Vanilla Coke. Dry pasta keeps a long time and all you have to do is boil water. Add some tomato paste and water, wine, butter, oil, whatever and voila!


Naw... you don't sound like a snob we all have our own foods we like best and the way we like it. I'm just not into cooking at all and hate tomato soup, raw tomatoes, tomato paste etc. Anything that tastes too much like tomatoes I hate. I prefer pasta that doesn't taste like tomatoes at all.


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## ledbetter (Aug 4, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> Naw... you don't sound like a snob we all have our own foods we like best and the way we like it. I'm just not into cooking at all and hate tomato soup, raw tomatoes, tomato paste etc. Anything that tastes too much like tomatoes I hate. I prefer pasta that doesn't taste like tomatoes at all.


There’s always ham and cheese and butter. Don’t think of it as cooking, just mixing a few items together.


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## Lynx_Arc (Aug 5, 2020)

ledbetter said:


> There’s always ham and cheese and butter. Don’t think of it as cooking, just mixing a few items together.


My idea of "cooking" is putting something in a container and tying a number in and pushing the start button and coming back when I hear the beep and eating it.


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## Poppy (Aug 5, 2020)

For the past three weeks we've been packing and moving, so we have done "take out" dinners, and lunches. Cooking has been limited to toasting bagels and making coffee for breakfast. Yesterday our area was hit with a tropical storm that traveled up the East Coast. The Governor closed the state. Trees are down causing power failures throughout the state. Fortunately, we have power.

At any rate, yesterday I went to the supermarket for medicinal items, and checked out the cleaning and paper isles.
There were ample cleaning products, but still missing is Clorox spray disinfectant, Lysol spray, and any kind of disinfectant wipes. There wasn't a paper towel in the store. TP was down to about 30% of their typical supply, and 30% of that was the industrial type. 

Glancing up and down the isles, I didn't see any glaring bare spots, so now I wonder if the paper towel shortage was due to hording in prep for the coming storm?

And yes Mr Fixer, the frozen pizza situation has been restored to normal here too.


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## thermal guy (Aug 5, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> i dont understand why there is a shortage i mean we are not pooping more



No but we are hoarding it. Can’t tell you how many people I get behind in line in the store that are Buying 30-40 rolls at a time.


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## markr6 (Aug 5, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> i dont understand why there is a shortage i mean we are not pooping more



Start eating the canned and processed food and you won't have to poop for a week.

Everything seems about back to normal here. Produce is fine. Meat is there but a little more expensive now. TP and cleaning products in stock.


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## Lynx_Arc (Aug 5, 2020)

Poppy said:


> For the past three weeks we've been packing and moving, so we have done "take out" dinners, and lunches. Cooking has been limited to toasting bagels and making coffee for breakfast. Yesterday our area was hit with a tropical storm that traveled up the East Coast. The Governor closed the state. Trees are down causing power failures throughout the state. Fortunately, we have power.
> 
> At any rate, yesterday I went to the supermarket for medicinal items, and checked out the cleaning and paper isles.
> There were ample cleaning products, but still missing is Clorox spray disinfectant, Lysol spray, and any kind of disinfectant wipes. There wasn't a paper towel in the store. TP was down to about 30% of their typical supply, and 30% of that was the industrial type.
> ...


I don't think paper towel shortage is because of the storm as much as some other reason. We are far far inland so any hurricane is only a rain storm here and I was looking for paper towels and 2 stores either didn't have them at all (dollar tree) or only a 6 pack of them (Aldi) etc. I think people are buying them up due to the virus fear thinking that they are going to get it from a surface in their home somehow.


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## turbodog (Aug 5, 2020)

We were going to slaughter a cow in a month or so. The local processing places are backed up for 6-8 months. No fresh steaks for us...


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## Poppy (Aug 5, 2020)

Is butchering a cow very different from butchering a deer?
Maybe there are hunter sources?


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## scout24 (Aug 5, 2020)

Local butchers here that do cows, pigs, etc. are U.S.D.A. inspected. So there's that. The gentleman who processes my deer is not. He's set up to deal with a 200lb animal that has already met it's maker. Most of the cows processed up here are 5-10 times that size, and are still breathing when brought in for processing, so there's more involved...


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## turbodog (Aug 5, 2020)

Yup. Usually take in at around the 1000-1200 lb range. Get back 60% of that.

Deer... I can do myself with a tree and some rope. Been many years though.


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## Poppy (Aug 8, 2020)

I went into a Home Depot today for shades, and they had a couple of pallets of paper towels. I picked up a package of 12=24. Later I went to a local supermarket, and again their shelves were barren of paper towels, except for some 6 packs of off brand products. I picked up a 6 pack.

There were more holes in the frozen food section, than a couple of days ago.

Fresh fruits and veggies were in abundance.


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## PhotonWrangler (Aug 8, 2020)

When the pandemic first hit, it was hard to find toilet paper and hand sanitizer but easy to find Clorox and Lysol wipes. Now it's easy to find toilet paper and hand sanitizer around here but no Lysol or Clorox wipes.


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## bykfixer (Aug 9, 2020)

Grocery store had chocolate covered vanilla ice cream bars today. Yay. 
First time since late June. 

Mrs Fixer prefers ice cream bars. I prefer ice cream sandwiches so by having ice cream bars I will avoid over indulging.


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## Lynx_Arc (Aug 9, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> Grocery store had chocolate covered vanilla ice cream bars today. Yay.
> First time since late June.
> 
> Mrs Fixer prefers ice cream bars. I prefer ice cream sandwiches so by having ice cream bars I will avoid over indulging.


I buy them at Aldi's here, they haven't been too much harder to find than normal since the virus showed up but the cost is up 25% over last year as it other products like Ramen noodles.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Aug 9, 2020)

I made a valiant attempt to purchase a new dishwasher last week. :shakehead All the big-box stores and the three largest independent appliance stores were sold out and not expecting new stock for at least a month.


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## bykfixer (Aug 9, 2020)

Perhaps that explains the shortage of dishwasher powder? At least in my area anyway. I have not shopped for a new washer (knocking on wood) but have noticed dish powder missing from store shelves since the great big toilet paper shortage.


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## Lynx_Arc (Aug 9, 2020)

There is all sorts of stuff that is running out and they are having a hard time replacing. Dishwasher soap is a logical thing to run out of in stores as the need for it has probably more than doubled as few people are eating out and some are still not employed so a lot of home time and home meals with it hence the need to wash a LOT more dishes. Dishwashers are probably low in stock or out for similar reasons people that ate out most of the time are now stuck at home and either their current washer died on them or they are tired of washing them by hand.


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## idleprocess (Aug 9, 2020)

Limited menus and ingredient substitution have been a thing at area restaurants since April.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Aug 10, 2020)

Costco is still out of bags of beans and canned corn. Only name brand canned green beans available. Cheese has skyrocketed in price (near $18 for 5 lbs. of shreaded and over $7 for a block). Walmart had no sliced new potatoes. Some stores are spacing out aisles wider so people don't notice their lack of product (especially the "nonessential stores that could be closed again at any time). Some stores aren't restocking for fear of more closures. A certain trucking company is now refusing to ship to certain cities, so we don't just have more factories shut down, but less distribution capacity available. Our town is holding a town hall meeting this week at a gym forced to shut down (the owner is facing fines and possible jail time for trying to stay open) to discuss what to do about the closures and how it's destroying the town. Things are not looking good.


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## scout24 (Aug 10, 2020)

There are still a LOT of empty spots on the shelves here. Where those holes are seems to change slightly week by week, but as was said a lot of product gets spread out and the shelves "fronted" so it looks like they're full. TP is in stock, but maybe brands you haven't heard of. Paper towels are tough to come by. Bleach, dish soap both machine and for hand washing are spotty at best. I really think we've just grown accustomed to the lack of choices and quantities we were used to.


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## turbodog (Aug 10, 2020)

How is it that in central MS the only thing we are out of is name brand Purell and canned Fanta??? All else is in abundant supply.


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## Lynx_Arc (Aug 10, 2020)

turbodog said:


> How is it that in central MS the only thing we are out of is name brand Purell and canned Fanta??? All else is in abundant supply.


Not sure... could be those who are having issues are farther away from manufacturing and also have other issues that make it take longer to deliver goods (like riots and policing issues). I know around here shelves restock quickly on some stuff slower on other stuff I think overall the virus is still reducing manufacturing efficiency considerably with distancing, masks, and checks on employees hitting some plants not designed for such considerations to struggle to reduce virus transmission.


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## Poppy (Aug 31, 2020)

I went to Costco this morning They had a sign at the front door.
Out of Stock:
Paper towels
Clorox wipes
Lysol wipes.

So... I got water, TP and wine. 

I haven't seen Clorox wipes or Lysol wipes since March.


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## scout24 (Aug 31, 2020)

Today's trip to the grocery store what stood out was canned veggies. If you walk by on your way to get something else, all looks well. Until you see it's one or two cans deep, and one entire shelf is canned corn. No canned carrots, peas, or potatos. Beans and beets in stock, but again spread out to look like a lot more than what was really there.


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## Poppy (Aug 31, 2020)

Interesting. Has it been that way, or is this something relatively new?
Since this all began, fresh veggies have been available, but with the winter months, will this change?


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## Hooked on Fenix (Aug 31, 2020)

Canned veggies have been in short supply for months. Grab them when you see them. It's going to be an interesting Thanksgiving this year with the food shortages, travel restrictions, and bans on gatherings in many areas. Black Friday will likely be nonexistent or online only. Too many stores going under and nobody has money to spend. Even if everything opened up today, and people got jobs quickly, too many are already in debt up to their eyeballs to have much to spend for anything nonessential this year. I hope that changes. Another stimulus check would help. Kmart is closing and Fry's Electronics has been bare for a year. Small business owners can't operate long with reduced capacities and shutdowns at any time. A lot of business owners are retiring early and moving somewhere more affordable. People are abandoning some of the larger cities as essential services are breaking down and natural disasters are straining resources further. Many want to be in less populated areas away from corona virus hotspots, where they have fewer restrictions, more resources, and better protection. I don't see that trend changing anytime soon with a pandemic and bankrupt cities falling apart.


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## scout24 (Sep 1, 2020)

It's been that way here for months with canned, fresh are available but variety isn't always what it was. What's most unfortunate is we've had two of our favorite local restaurants close this summer. This during the busy "tourist" season.


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## markr6 (Sep 1, 2020)

Most of the seltzer water is wiped out which is strange. La Croix, Bubly, store brand, everything. I was at two stores but not going to drive around just to save a couple dollars.


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## Lynx_Arc (Sep 1, 2020)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Canned veggies have been in short supply for months. Grab them when you see them. It's going to be an interesting Thanksgiving this year with the food shortages, travel restrictions, and bans on gatherings in many areas. Black Friday will likely be nonexistent or online only. Too many stores going under and nobody has money to spend. Even if everything opened up today, and people got jobs quickly, too many are already in debt up to their eyeballs to have much to spend for anything nonessential this year. I hope that changes. Another stimulus check would help. Kmart is closing and Fry's Electronics has been bare for a year. Small business owners can't operate long with reduced capacities and shutdowns at any time. A lot of business owners are retiring early and moving somewhere more affordable. People are abandoning some of the larger cities as essential services are breaking down and natural disasters are straining resources further. Many want to be in less populated areas away from corona virus hotspots, where they have fewer restrictions, more resources, and better protection. I don't see that trend changing anytime soon with a pandemic and bankrupt cities falling apart.



You still have Kmart? They closed all their stores here and also closed all the Sears stores (Kmart owns Sears) years and years ago so them closing the rest of their stores may be less related to the virus than just history repeating itself.


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## Katherine Alicia (Sep 1, 2020)

I don`t know if people are using them to stuff masks or what, but coffee filters are getting hard to find now, we had to try 4 different places!?


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## idleprocess (Sep 1, 2020)

In my limited sampling of the DFW area most staples are available, however isopropyl alcohol remains stubbornly out of stock.


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## Lynx_Arc (Sep 1, 2020)

Katherine Alicia said:


> I don`t know if people are using them to stuff masks or what, but coffee filters are getting hard to find now, we had to try 4 different places!?


Not totally surprising as instead of everyone sharing the same coffee makers at work more people are at home and the stress of it all has them constantly incoffeecated. In other words probably more coffee makers are in use now due to the virus.


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## Bull-Dozer (Sep 1, 2020)

---Nebraska/Iowa---

From big box chains to mom and pop stores Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa are largely back to normal. The more densely populated city and metro areas were slower to recover but not too far behind. Life is good in the corn fields. 

For what it is worth I did not see a lot of hoarding. What I did see were people responding to politicians telling them to prepare to shelter in place for one week, then two, then a month. A little math tells me most families with children figured kids being home all day would mean twice the toilet paper. With no small number of households suddenly doubling, tripling or quadrupling their weekly grocery and toiletry amounts (again, just following their fearless leaders and talking heads) it is a miracle supplies kept up as well as they did.

I tell all of my friends and family who lost their minds over the alleged wide spread hoarding that this is their chance to never go unprepared again. I have had a few ask what I think they should stock. The answer is always - whatever you don't want to stand in line for.


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## bykfixer (Sep 2, 2020)

Katherine Alicia said:


> I don`t know if people are using them to stuff masks or what, but coffee filters are getting hard to find now, we had to try 4 different places!?



Now that you mention it coffee filters are in short supply in my area. They were gone for a while but did return as summer wore on. The stores have some but not many now. 
But we had bought 1500 (10x150 packs) prior so we never had an issue.


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## Poppy (Sep 3, 2020)

Oh darn, I forgot to look for coffee filters when I went to the store today. I don't need them because I use a re-useable screen filter that came with my unit.

I did a little hording protection today.
The store was well stocked with TP and paper towels, and a variety of meats.


Paper towels 15 = 28 rolls of Scott brand. $15.00
and 7 lbs of 85% lean chopped meat. @ $2.99/lb. On sale I guess for the upcoming labor day weekend bar b ques.
I have a press and will turn that into about 24 burgers that start out between 1/3rd lb and 1/4 lb each.


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## Poppy (Oct 28, 2020)

WE have the very tail end of hurricane Zeta arriving tomorrow, so I went to Costco to top off my tank, and while there picked up a couple of cases of bottled water.
They had toilet paper, and paper towels in stock.

A few weeks ago, I hit the supermarket and noted that they had plenty of coffee filters in stock, in fact they had a bunch on an end cap. I don't think I had ever seen that before. They are always way in the middle of an isle.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Oct 28, 2020)

Poppy said:


> ...
> 
> I did a little hording protection today.
> 
> ...



:hahaha: Hoarding protection = a gentle euphemism for hoarding. :laughing: Thank you for the laugh out loud, Poppa J.


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## idleprocess (Oct 29, 2020)

Poppy said:


> I did a little hording protection today.



Built my stocks up more than a month ago; might go snag some more essentials just in case there's _excitement_ onwards of Tuesday evening.


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## markr6 (Oct 29, 2020)

idleprocess said:


> Built my stocks up more than a month ago; might go snag some more essentials just in case there's _excitement_ onwards of Tuesday evening.




I was out to do the same. But when I got there, I thought to myself "what do I buy?" In terms of food, people say to stock up on canned vegetables, beans, meat. But then I thought "I'm not going to eat that crap!"

Of course I would if it came to that...but things would have to get really bad. Cooking for one makes things hard sometimes. And I just prefer to get fresh food every week or more often as needed. So I guess I need to learn how to prepare better.

Last time it came down to other household items like dishwasher detergent. So I stocked up on that, trash bags, etc. Stores are well stocked at the moment.


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## Poppy (Oct 29, 2020)

markr6 said:


> I was out to do the same. But when I got there, I thought to myself "what do I buy?" In terms of food, people say to stock up on canned vegetables, beans, meat. But then I thought "I'm not going to eat that crap!"
> 
> Of course I would if it came to that...but things would have to get really bad. *Cooking for one makes things hard sometimes*. And I just prefer to get fresh food every week or more often as needed. So I guess I need to learn how to prepare better.
> 
> Last time it came down to other household items like dishwasher detergent. So I stocked up on that, trash bags, etc. Stores are well stocked at the moment.


I agree, cooking for one is a bit of a drag.
Now, my daughter and I usually eat together, but when it was just me, I would typically make a one pot meal, and eat it for lunch, and or dinner for three maybe four days in a row. I'd freeze a 3-4 lb package of chicken breasts, and a year later throw them out. I have also made soups, and froze portions of it. That worked for me.

Initially when Covid hit, we stocked up on canned goods, and lots of Progresso hearty soups. We are still stocked, because, fresh and frozen vegetables were pretty much always available.

I don't like the Tupperware brand, because they have five different sizes, each with it's own differently sized lid. For a few years, I used "Chinese tupperware" the 8oz, 16oz, and 32oz, soup containers, all take the same size lid, and they stack very easily. I now use Rubbermaid that comes in different capacities, but use the same interchangeable lids. I use sticker labels and date them as I put them away. I am still guilty of not freezing leftovers, perhaps because there are two of us eating.

However what I now do is to buy skinless boneless chicken and chopped beef in family sized packages. I turn the beef into burger patties, and I filet the breasts and pound them out. I then put them into freezer bags, that I dated, and freeze them. I don't have a vacuum sealer, so I submerge them in water. The pressure of the water holds the sides of the bag against the meat, and forces the air out of the top. I then seal it. That actually works pretty well regarding reducing frost bite.
Each bag will have typically two servings in it.

When I want to cook, I can pull out as many servings as I want, and throw them (still in the bag) into a pot of warm water to give them a quick thaw.

https://www.allrecipes.com/ is my friend.

Grill masters mixed spices is another friend of mine. 

Variety is the Spice of Life!

Today I made a very important "essentials" run. We have football game to watch tonight.






Like you, I found that the store was fully stocked, including cleaning products (no lysol) and paper products.
Due perhaps in part to the rain, the store was relatively empty of shoppers.

I bought a couple of cans of "Cream of Chicken" soup, and Cream of mushroom soup.
They are often called for in making casserole dishes. And the cream of mushroom soup makes chicken marsala a snap.

Fortunately we are pretty well stocked.


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## markr6 (Oct 29, 2020)

Poppy said:


> I'd freeze a 3-4 lb package of chicken breasts, and a year later throw them out.



LOL!!! That's totally me!

I recently purchased some of that white freezer paper, maybe that'll help. Otherwise anything I freeze turns into a bag half-full of shaved ice. I did find a bag of chicken breasts that are individually wrapped and those look like they freeze well.


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## Poppy (Oct 29, 2020)

markr6 said:


> LOL!!! That's totally me!
> 
> I recently purchased some of that white freezer paper, maybe that'll help. Otherwise anything I freeze turns into a bag half-full of shaved ice. I did find a bag of chicken breasts that are individually wrapped and those look like they freeze well.


LOL... glad I'm not alone! 

Good luck with the freezer paper, let us know how it works out.

I've used zip lock bags, and I *think* the double seal freezer bags work a little better.

I may pull something out of the freezer, and not use it right away, and then not be sure how much shelf life it has in the refrigerator before it is not usable. So I started putting the frozen date and sell by date on the label. In this case, I know that I can defrost it, and it will still be good for 7-8 days.

These are skinless boneless thighs pounded out somewhat flat.






I am trying to demonstrate how so much of the air is pushed out of the bag, when I seal it as described above.
I don't think the picture does it justice.


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## bykfixer (Oct 29, 2020)

Poppy, if you like marinating stuff like those chicken thighs pour some in the bag before freezing. But if it's a really strong marinade like a worschtershine or heavy on onion ya might not want to. I pre-marinate with things like barbecue sauces or Italian dressing by dumping it in the bag before freezing and as a bonus the liquid freezes fairly flat so storing efficiently is enhanced. Helps when you go to pull out a bag of frozen something to thaw all day. So when opening the freezer door you don't get "SURPRIZE!!" :huh: a bannana shaped frozen object lands on your bare toe early in the morning.


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## Poppy (Oct 29, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> Poppy, if you like marinating stuff like those chicken thighs pour some in the bag before freezing. But if it's a really strong marinade like a worschtershine or heavy on onion ya might not want to. I pre-marinate with things like barbecue sauces or Italian dressing by dumping it in the bag before freezing and as a bonus the liquid freezes fairly flat so storing efficiently is enhanced. Helps when you go to pull out a bag of frozen something to thaw all day. So when opening the freezer door you don't get "SURPRIZE!!" :huh: a bannana shaped frozen object lands on your bare toe early in the morning.


Ah yes my friend, freezing in marinade sounds like a good/great idea.
People freeze fish in water to reduce freezer burn, don't they?

For me, though, Chicken is: "Like a box of Chocolates" you'll never know how I am gonna make it. 

Since I filet and pound them to even thicknesses, they stack up in the freezer like frozen pizza. The pounding tenderizes them, but just as important, maybe more-so, they cook evenly. 

Once thawed, I'll grill them, fry them, bake them, or cut them up and casserole them.
My daughter's favorite is fried honey coconut chicken. yum yum.


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## bykfixer (Oct 29, 2020)

After my last post I went into my freezer to pull out a batch of ground turkey and SURPrIZE!! 





Yikes!! 
The clearance priced tenderloin said "boink" on my foot.


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## Poppy (Oct 29, 2020)

bykfixer said:


> After my last post I went into my freezer to pull out a batch of ground turkey and SURPrIZE!!
> 
> 
> Yikes!!
> The clearance priced tenderloin said "boink" on my foot.


LOL... you have too much time on your hands 

Rain day today, eh?


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## bykfixer (Oct 29, 2020)

Yup. Rain out thanks to Zeta. 

Our supply chain is pretty constant lately. My favorite OJ (Trop 50) is hit or miss but after drinking it every day for two years (in place of coffee) I'm starting to think other flavored beverages are probably in my future anyway. 

Aisles are completely stocked up with the stuff that was gone for a while like toilet paper, paper towels, coffee filters and ramen noodles.


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## PhotonWrangler (Oct 29, 2020)

We're finally starting to see name brand sanitizing wipes in our area again, the ones with the long list of unpronounceable active ingredients, not the benzaklonium chloride wipes.


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## Poppy (Nov 1, 2020)

What a difference three days makes!

Today my daughter went to the supermarket and got some stuff.

Apparently we are making tacos for dinner! Yum! 

Many cleaning products were depleted. Regarding the brand of laundry detergent that she prefers... she got the last two bottles.
Bleach... she got two gallons. The last two - one gallon containers. There were still a lot of the 1 quart, and half gallon available.
The bread isle was quite depleted, and peanut butter and jelly.
Frozen pizza, quite depleted.

Is it related to the fact that the entire school system will be totally virtual next week, whereas the schools had 1/3rd of the kids in in-school class (on a rotating basis) so more kids will be eating at home?

OR is it related to the fact the the numbers in NJ are at around 1,500 new cases a day, whereas 6 weeks ago they were recording about 250-300 new cases a day?

Just a reminder of how quickly things can go south.


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## Devildude (Nov 1, 2020)

Things are still holding up well in central New York, the only thing that was getting scarce was Alavert. I hit 5 drug stores in Oneonta and only one had any. Must be in high demand right now. Everything else seemed normal other than no spinach, that hurts a little but I can get by.


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## Cobra 6 Actual (Nov 3, 2020)

There seem to be a number of things that disappear for awhile and then mysteriously reappear. For example, Graham Crackers in the red box (the Original version) were totally gone for weeks. Now the supply is plentiful. Asked at my local store why it was unavailable ... didn’t know. Asked why it was plentiful, didn’t know.

Now, last week and this week it’s Wright’s thick cut bacon that has gone walkabout. No known reason.

Here’s my reaction to all of this is:

1. It’s no big deal. It’s not like I’m starving or there’s a famine.

2. I’m doing a better job of anticipating food needed. So, when X starts to run low I go buy some.

3. I’ve tried some new (for me) foods that I didn’t used to like, such as rice, and have found a new interest.

4. I’ve expanded the number of stores I shop at. Often one won’t have X, but another will.

Anyway, I don’t really stockpile, but I do like to have a reasonable number of staples in the pantry. YMMV.


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## markr6 (Nov 5, 2020)

^ Good points. I can't speak for the entire world, but it's really just *a matter of inconvenience*. All the "good" cereal is gone. I have to use 85% ground beef instead of 93%. Why are Extra Toasty Cheez-its the only flavor out of stock all the time?

Are we going to get to the point where the prepper guy is in his basement heating up rice out of a 5-gal bucket over an alcohol stove? Come on. But if people like planning for that, more power to them. It's their time and money.

The grocery stores and those who supply them are having a very difficult time finding a balance. A balance that simply isn't there. Overall they're doing an amazing job in times of chaos.


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## idleprocess (Nov 5, 2020)

markr6 said:


> ... I can't speak for the entire world, but it's really just *a matter of inconvenience*.
> 
> ... Are we going to get to the point where the prepper guy is in his basement heating up rice out of a 5-gal bucket over an alcohol stove? Come on. But if people like planning for that, more power to them. It's their time and money.



My preparation has largely consisted of padding the usual staples and spending a bit more than usual in the process. Didn't convert my 401k into MREs, 50lb sacks of rice, a generator with a dedicated 500 gallon propane tank, nor a 1000 gallon cistern.


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## markr6 (Nov 5, 2020)

idleprocess said:


> Didn't convert my 401k into MREs, 50lb sacks of rice, a generator with a dedicated 500 gallon propane tank, nor a 1000 gallon cistern.



LOL!! Get to work...you have 2 weeks!

Yeah, I now have 6 boxes of pasta instead of one that's about half empty and a freezer with more than just ice cubes and some frozen pizzas.


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## idleprocess (Nov 5, 2020)

markr6 said:


> LOL!! Get to work...you have 2 weeks!



I do have an alcohol _burner_, which probably has enough wheaties to boil a pint of water and enough alcohol to boil ... _more than one_ pint.


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## turbodog (Nov 5, 2020)

Actual brand name purell is back in stock... also it's buy one get one free as well. Guess they want their market share back I suppose.


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 5, 2020)

turbodog said:


> Actual brand name purell is back in stock... also it's buy one get one free as well. Guess they want their market share back I suppose.



Considering everyone even Budweiser is making hand sanitizer now there is huge competition I've seen various hand sanitizers on sale in every store these days.


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## idleprocess (Nov 5, 2020)

turbodog said:


> Actual brand name purell is back in stock... also it's buy one get one free as well. Guess they want their market share back I suppose.



Might also be some _whipsaw_ action in the supply chain.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 5, 2020)

Lynx_Arc said:


> Considering everyone even Budweiser is making hand sanitizer now there is huge competition I've seen various hand sanitizers on sale in every store these days.



I've given up on the off-brand hand sanitizers. They're either too sticky, too runny, smell weird or some combination of these. I'm sticking with Purell or Germ-X.


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## nbp (Nov 5, 2020)

Germ-x is a good product. But it is actually an “off-brand” as the same formula from Vi-Jon is packaged as many different private labels for different stores around the country from CVS, Walgreens, Meijer, Etc.


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 5, 2020)

I just use the alcohol hand wipes when I'm away from home or a restroom where I use hand soap.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 6, 2020)

nbp said:


> Germ-x is a good product. But it is actually an “off-brand” as the same formula from Vi-Jon is packaged as many different private labels for different stores around the country from CVS, Walgreens, Meijer, Etc.



Yeah it's kind of the Avis of hand sanitizers but it's been around a long time and the formula seems to behave just like Purell.


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## nbp (Nov 7, 2020)

Yes they are pretty similar. I used to work in the QA/QC lab for a contract blending and packaging company. We made hand sanitizers for Gojo/Purell, Ecolab, Vi-Jon (Germ-X and all its private labels). I have tested thousands of batches or hand sanitizer. Most of the big players are basically the same. Ethanol, water, a polymer, some pH balancers, color, fragrance, moisturizers. They tweak their formulas a bit but it’s all very similar.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 7, 2020)

nbp said:


> Yes they are pretty similar. I used to work in the QA/QC lab for a contract blending and packaging company. We made hand sanitizers for Gojo/Purell, Ecolab, Vi-Jon (Germ-X and all its private labels). I have tested thousands of batches or hand sanitizer. Most of the big players are basically the same. Ethanol, water, a polymer, some pH balancers, color, fragrance, moisturizers. They tweak their formulas a bit but it’s all very similar.



Wow. Thanks for the inside scoop, nbp!


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## bykfixer (Nov 15, 2020)

Today at the grocery store I noticed several people were there to buy toilet paper and only toilet paper. Uh oh. Well, some were carrying paper towels. We still had some stockpiled from March but hey, when in Rome, right? 

We got to the toilet paper/paper towel row and it looked like March all over again. There was a big ole hole where Red Baron pizzas are normally stocked at too. Yet plenty of clorox wipes and Lysol. 

Canned lima beans keep disappearing. Frozen are plentiful though. And Chef Boyardee must have retired because canned ravioli etc is still missing from shelves and was all summer. Maybe he got covid-19 from the keebler elves and didn't make it. (shrugs shoulders).


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## LeanBurn (Nov 15, 2020)

The Costco in my area had zero toilet paper when we went in. As we were about to check out, I saw someone with a pack in their cart, this led to a line of people headed back to the location and within minutes the pallet was gone. There was a 1/customer limit. 
There are random rolling outages on certain items in my area such as canned fruit and chili and some soups. It still hasn't returned to precovid dependability.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 15, 2020)

I read a story today where some doctors in the Dakotas still can't get N95 masks. I've purchased a few KN95 masks that I've stumbled across in stores, but I won't buy the medical grade masks 'cause I don't want to be part of the problem.


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## idleprocess (Nov 15, 2020)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I read a story today where some doctors in the Dakotas still can't get N95 masks. I've purchased a few KN95 masks that I've stumbled across in stores, but I won't buy the medical grade masks 'cause I don't want to be part of the problem.



I haven't seen actual N95 masks in hardware stores since ~February. I get weeks of use out of KN95s as filter media for my ersatz RZ mask setup. I do wish it were easier to source KN95s - I might need to ask some of the local medical supply places if they have a line on the genuine article as I've already been burned on the 'Zon once.


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## Devildude (Nov 15, 2020)

I was out yesterday shopping and noticed no paper towels nor Puffs tissues. Plenty of meat on hand. Myself I picked up flour and sugar, I have plenty of yeast so all good on baking aspects. Plenty of TP in the stores right now, hopefully no shortages this time around.


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## Poppy (Nov 15, 2020)

My daughter went food shopping yesterday, and again today to pick up things that weren't available at the store she went to previously.
The stores were pretty well stocked, but she said, there were a lot of people shopping, and everyone had very FULL shopping carts. There wasn't a single person with just a couple of things in the cart at check-out.

Pandemic stocking up? OR Thanksgiving prep? Don't know. Maybe a little of both.


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## markr6 (Nov 17, 2020)

I just went before work to get some necessities (coffee, Good & Plenty) and noticed the toilet paper aisle was full. Maybe I should go back after work and stock up. They still have the "limit 2" signs up.


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## ledbetter (Nov 20, 2020)

Friend in Atlanta says the tp aisles are wiped clean...


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## idleprocess (Nov 20, 2020)

ledbetter said:


> Friend in Atlanta says the tp aisles are wiped clean...



While I'm tempted to load up, I restocked a few months ago and find myself almost _lousy_ with the stuff so I imagine that I'll just wait out this latest kerfuffle like I did last time.


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## Lynx_Arc (Nov 20, 2020)

ledbetter said:


> Friend in Atlanta says the tp aisles are wiped clean...


Wiped clean? Isn't that what TP is for?


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## bykfixer (Dec 9, 2020)

Toilet paper is baaaaaaaaack. Lots of it. Paper towels too. But where are the canned lima beans? 

Mrs Fixer asked me why I keep buying 12 rolls each week. "We still have 64 rolls from the spring" she said. 
"Only 64?" I responded……


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## Poppy (Dec 9, 2020)

Just came back from shopping.
The store was well stocked, including things that were missing first time around.

TP and paper towels, hand sanitizer, and soaps (no lysol) frozen foods, including a large variety of pizza were all available.

Of course the two things in particular I wanted though. Rice a roni (chicken), and Classico Vodka sauce, were not on the shelves. Pasta-roni, yes, and hamburger helper, but no rice-a-roni.

I think Stop and Shop may have stopped carrying the Classico Vodka sauce, they have other Classico sauces, but not Vodka. Unfortunately, that is the only brand my grandson will eat. Next time I'll have to try Shoprite.


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## turbodog (Dec 9, 2020)

I swear we are still using the same pack from the springtime. A relative was shopping back then so I asked them to grab a pack. Got super size single ply rolls. Have _NEVER_ seen stuff last this long.


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## bigburly912 (Dec 9, 2020)

turbodog said:


> I swear we are still using the same pack from the springtime. A relative was shopping back then so I asked them to grab a pack. Got super size single ply rolls. Have _NEVER_ seen stuff last this long.



That’s because wiping your behind with it is like sitting on broken glass.


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## raggie33 (Dec 9, 2020)

around here pine combs are a hot item . people climb trees and get them before they even fall. they sell for almost 90 cents per pine comb


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## Poppy (Dec 9, 2020)

raggie33 said:


> around here pine combs are a hot item . people climb trees and get them before they even fall. they sell for almost 90 cents per pine comb


And that's why the South lost the war.
Up North we use a "fruit picker tool"
https://www.google.com/search?q=fru...69i60j69i61.3215j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


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## Poppy (Dec 9, 2020)

turbodog said:


> I swear we are still using the same pack from the springtime. A relative was shopping back then so I asked them to grab a pack. Got super size single ply rolls. Have _NEVER_ seen stuff last this long.





bigburly912 said:


> That’s because wiping your behind with it is like sitting on broken glass.


That's funny.

We've been using Charmin, or Kirkland (Costco brand) they are extra thick, and require fewer layers of paper than single ply paper.
I guess it was when I sent the boys in to do a little shopping that we ended up with a few rolls of Scott single layer "safe for septic" rolls. They are just a little better than just using your bare hand and then washing it. ... Viking days!

Honestly, I use more than is needed of the Scott's, just so I can get through the roll, and use the more heavy duty brands.


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 10, 2020)

I've been ordering one particular food item online as it's always been hard to find in local stores. Whenever I order it from the Rainforest Place, I buy enough of it to last for a month or two.

During the initial wave of the pandemic in the spring, they turned on an anti-hoarding algorithm which limited the number of packages that I could buy at a time. Ok, fair enough; I don't want to be a jerk about this. During the summer they lifted that restriction, but sometime recently they appear to have turned it on again.


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## orbital (Sep 24, 2021)

+

Nearly every business in my area has a sign looking for workers,, some are so desperate they offer huge singing bonuses.
You drive down the highway & there are billboards with businesses looking to hire.

That & 70 gigantic cargo ships unable to unload containers in California.

Supply chain 'problem' is now an excuse (noun)


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## raggie33 (Sep 24, 2021)

burger hired me at 37 bucks per hour and i get payed daily


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## raggie33 (Sep 25, 2021)

ps im joking lol


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## PhotonWrangler (Oct 11, 2021)

I've been noticing minor shortages of some food items in stores lately, however all of the stores in my area have truckloads of halloween candy.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Oct 14, 2021)

orbital said:


> +
> 
> Nearly every business in my area has a sign looking for workers,, some are so desperate they offer huge singing bonuses.
> You drive down the highway & there are billboards with businesses looking to hire.
> ...


And Southwest Airlines is having “weather problems”. Of coarse businesses are looking for workers. They are treating their current and former ones unfairly. If they put an honest ad for workers out, it would look like this:
Now hiring scapegoats to replace the ones we just fired. Looking for workers willing to anger potential customers by denying some of them entry. Must be willing to tolerate being spit on and yelled at by people that may have COVID. May be sued, harassed, or physically attacked. Must be willing to deny entry even to family members that don’t comply with our rules. People with anger issues need not apply.

Would you want to work if you knew that’s what you had to look forward to? Every job now is like working in lost luggage at the airport. Everything is your fault. People can only take so much before they give up and quit.

Because of current requirements for work and entry into businesses, the relationship between employer and employee and between business and customer is broken. You can’t have a business succeed if you anger your workforce and customer base. This won’t end well for the supply chain.

These supply chain and hiring issues are self inflicted by businesses to avoid penalties and are the cause of what is now being called the Great Resignation.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 14, 2021)

Realistically, even if you take away the covid related stuff, these jobs were awful by any reasonable standard. Back-breaking work, poor working conditions, low pay, little chance for any real advancement. People stuck them out because employers brain-washed them for years into thinking they were "lucky" to have any job. Now people finally woke up, and it's a workers market for the first time in my adult life. Not just for lousy jobs, but even for jobs requiring more skill. Work from home is no longer a perk. Many employees would rather quit their jobs if it means a return to the office. Can't blame them. Commutes are a major time sink, cost lots of money, and give lots of stress. They're getting back 10 or 15 hours of their lives each week. Many will even take lower pay if it means continuing to work from home.

Ultimately we'll come out of this better. Seeing that even higher pay isn't attracting enough people, I think many of these jobs will be automated as soon as possible. Fast food is already doing some of that. Truck driving is next on the list. Many hospitality positions will likely follow as soon as robots and AI can do these jobs. We'll be better for it. Costs will drop. And when people work it'll be in jobs which have much better conditions. We'll also "pandemic-proof" the supply chain to some extent. The more automation, the less the supply chain will crash the next time a pandemic hits. Essential functions of society should be automated as soon as humanly possible.


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## idleprocess (Oct 14, 2021)

As I've said before, my sense is that much of what's happening is the employment market tilting towards the employee after being heavily tilted towards the employer for decades. Industries whose value proposition leaned on inflicting misery on their workforce are now facing retention and hiring challenges _and will need to adjust_.



jtr1962 said:


> Ultimately we'll come out of this better. Seeing that even higher pay isn't attracting enough people, I think many of these jobs will be automated as soon as possible. Fast food is already doing some of that.


Curiously, fast food did a pretty spectacularly terrible job of this a decade ago and continues to do a terrible job of it. The kiosks are slow, klugey, prone to failure, and otherwise unsatisfactory to use.



jtr1962 said:


> Truck driving is next on the list.


I expect at least another decade of development before real 'certification' trials of SAE level 4 OTR trucks are conducted. In the meantime the _owner-operator_ will continue to be squeezed by the markets, intensifying the labor shortage.



jtr1962 said:


> Many hospitality positions will likely follow as soon as robots and AI can do these jobs.


As badly as "virtual agents" handle problems on websites or 1-800 numbers that fall outside of a very narrow set of conditions, I'm not so confident that the _machine learning fairy_ will magick away a great many service sector jobs outside of the most rote and repetitive in a terrible hurry.


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## turbodog (Oct 14, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> ... Truck driving is next on the list. ... also "pandemic-proof" the supply chain to some extent...



Soon as truck are AI driven, I'm staying off the roads and going into product liability law.

Also... pandemic proof? Till the next DDOS or zero day vulnerability.

We can't collectively address working conditions (other than safety) and all other items on your list except pay. Support an increase in minimum wage, call your representatives.


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## FlashInThePan (Oct 15, 2021)

Sadly, I'm in a state that has the highest per capita covid rate in the entire country right now: Alaska. (In fact, if we were a country, we'd have the worst covid rate in the _world_.)

What worries me isn't a shortage of food or TP; it's medical care. That's what's really scary. And I'm hoping none of your states (or countries) get to that point. But here's what that means:

All of our hospitals right now are operating under "crisis standards of care", which means that they're rationing treatment. People who'd live under normal conditions are dying. We don't have enough doctor, nurses, or beds to handle everyone who needs them. Right now, the influx of covid patients is causing otherwise survivable patients....to die.

Normally, if a critical ill/injured person comes in to the ER, the doctor does everything he can to treat 'em: uses every drug, tries every procedure, utilizes every machine. Calls in consults from other specialties. They don't give up until the patient's flat-lined.

But right now, we have so many covid patients right now that this just isn't possible. Doctors are forced to make incredibly gut-wrenching decisions about who's most likely to survive...and just letting the ones that are less likely...die.

It's not just about covid, either: if you get into a car accident, or have a heart attack, or get diagnosed with cancer and need an elective procedure to cut it out before it spreads...you may not be able to get the care you need.

Anyway, that's what's in short supply here right now: medical care. As a result, I'm driving more carefully, eating more carefully, exercising more carefully...


Other than that, we're also seeing supply chain issues. I run a jewelry repair store, and a number of items - batteries, clasps for chains, engraving tips, etc. - are either out of stock or backordered from several of our suppliers. Car lots are surprisingly empty. And a lot of things are taking longer to get here than they used to. (Which is okay - we're used to that here in Alaska!)


On the plus side, all of my recent flashlight purchases have made it here safely, soooo....I have lots of lights to play with as I social distance. =D

- FITP


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## jtr1962 (Oct 15, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> As I've said before, my sense is that much of what's happening is the employment market tilting towards the employee after being heavily tilted towards the employer for decades. Industries whose value proposition leaned on inflicting misery on their workforce are now facing retention and hiring challenges _and will need to adjust_.


Agreed, and it's long past time. The market hasn't been tilted towards workers in _my entire adult life_. Last time was probably the late 1960s/early 1970s.



idleprocess said:


> Curiously, fast food did a pretty spectacularly terrible job of this a decade ago and continues to do a terrible job of it. The kiosks are slow, klugey, prone to failure, and otherwise unsatisfactory to use.


Seems to be more an issue of implementation than a problem with the technology. Japan seems to be doing it better than us.



idleprocess said:


> I expect at least another decade of development before real 'certification' trials of SAE level 4 OTR trucks are conducted. In the meantime the _owner-operator_ will continue to be squeezed by the markets, intensifying the labor shortage.


If we're talking strictly about long-haul trucks mostly on highways, we can do that right now. It's when you get off the highway that's the problem. So for 5 to 10 years we'll probably still need drivers for local deliveries. But automation can help enormously with the driver shortage right now.


idleprocess said:


> As badly as "virtual agents" handle problems on websites or 1-800 numbers that fall outside of a very narrow set of conditions, I'm not so confident that the _machine learning fairy_ will magick away a great many service sector jobs outside of the most rote and repetitive in a terrible hurry.


Again, I suspect the problem is one of implementation. You probably have people designing these machines and programming them who never spent one day in that particular industry. We'll get there eventually.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Oct 15, 2021)

The problem is that after last year, many police, nurses, firefighters, etc. quit. Police were being demonized because of a few bad apples. Nurses were burnt out over COVID patients. Firefighters were burnt out over record wildfires and even blocked by protesters from putting out city fires. No one wanted these jobs where you had to put your life on the line and were sometimes publicly demonized for doing it with no one to watch your back. Fast forward to now where we are firing frontline workers in mass. Now we had a guy in Beverly Hills, CA die from a heart attack because there were no vaccinated EMTs with proper training to help, and the ones with training were sitting on the bench and not allowed to go into the field. How many more are going to die because of an artificial shortage of police, nurses, firefighters, EMTs, etc.? What about truckers and those working on transport ships? Last year all the trucking academies were shut down due to COVID. We came into this year with a shortage of truck drivers. Firing some of them is the stupidest thing we could have done. These people were sometimes robbed last year while delivering to some cities and they kept going. You don’t get rid of those that went through all that. Bravery and persistence are in short supply. Without truckers, people starve and our country falls apart. Look at the backlog of ships in Long Beach, CA. Because of a trucker shortage made worse by one decision, there is a huge backlog of ships. One ship caused a massive oil spill by dragging it’s anchor. These ships aren’t just carrying Christmas presents. Many are carrying food that could spoil because of this delay. This could cause people to starve.

I think the cure for COVID is becoming worse than the disease with all of this in mind. I miss the days where we could be respectful toward one another and treat each other as equals instead of allowing some to be treated as second class citizens. I’m tired of seeing someone who sneezes looked at like they are a mass murderer. Those that make a certain choice about their body with consultation with their doctor should be respected, not publicly demonized, fired, and banned from receiving unemployment (especially those in the military). If we don’t turn back now from the way we are going, our fear of this virus will be the end of us.


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## Poppy (Oct 15, 2021)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> The problem is that after last year, many police, nurses, firefighters, etc. quit. Police were being demonized because of a few bad apples. Nurses were burnt out over COVID patients. Firefighters were burnt out over record wildfires and even blocked by protesters from putting out city fires. No one wanted these jobs where you had to put your life on the line and were sometimes publicly demonized for doing it with no one to watch your back. Fast forward to now where we are firing frontline workers in mass. Now we had a guy in Beverly Hills, CA die from a heart attack because there were no vaccinated EMTs with proper training to help, and the ones with training were sitting on the bench and not allowed to go into the field. How many more are going to die because of an artificial shortage of police, nurses, firefighters, EMTs, etc.? What about truckers and those working on transport ships? Last year all the trucking academies were shut down due to COVID. We came into this year with a shortage of truck drivers. Firing some of them is the stupidest thing we could have done. These people were sometimes robbed last year while delivering to some cities and they kept going. You don’t get rid of those that went through all that. Bravery and persistence are in short supply. Without truckers, people starve and our country falls apart. Look at the backlog of ships in Long Beach, CA. Because of a trucker shortage made worse by one decision, there is a huge backlog of ships. One ship caused a massive oil spill by dragging it’s anchor. These ships aren’t just carrying Christmas presents. Many are carrying food that could spoil because of this delay. This could cause people to starve.
> 
> I think the cure for COVID is becoming worse than the disease with all of this in mind. I miss the days where we could be respectful toward one another and treat each other as equals instead of allowing some to be treated as second class citizens. I’m tired of seeing someone who sneezes looked at like they are a mass murderer. Those that make a certain choice about their body with consultation with their doctor should be respected, not publicly demonized, fired, and banned from receiving unemployment (especially those in the military). If we don’t turn back now from the way we are going, our fear of this virus will be the end of us.


Oh cry me a river!


More NYC police officers retire or resign at relatively young age - Xinhua | English.news.cn






> While most New York City employees cannot receive their pensions until they turn 62, police officers and firefighters can retire at any age after they have completed the required number of years of uniformed service.
> 
> In New York City, most police officers and firefighters leave city service after *they qualify for their full pension and health insurance benefits: 20 years of service *for those hired before July 2009, and 22 years for those hired since then.
> 
> This is different from many other major U.S. cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and San Diego, where police and firefighters must be at least 50 to receive their pensions.


What other job do you know of that you can retire at 38 years of age and have your health insurance benefits paid for the rest of your life?
Health Insurance for my wife and I was $1700 a month, and it was not as good as the State Health Benefit Plan. It includes Police, Firemen, Teachers, and other municipal employees.


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## Poppy (Oct 15, 2021)

I did a little shopping today in a supermarket. There weren't any gaping holes on the shelves. Meat prices are up $1-2 a pound more than last year. Some were on sale, reduced to what they would have costed last year, but one needed to have their "Digital Coupon". This particular store's online shopping cart is terribly implemented. It just isn't worth the time to work your way through it.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 15, 2021)

FlashInThePan said:


> What worries me isn't a shortage of food or TP; it's medical care. That's what's really scary. And I'm hoping none of your states (or countries) get to that point.


I've been operating that way since last March. I haven't ridden my bike, for example. Not because medical care in NYC was lacking. That was only true in the first few months of the pandemic. But rather because if I got hurt seriously enough to need to go to a hospital, there's a chance I could catch covid while there. So I'd rather not do anything which could potentially put me in a hospital. I don't even go out for walks besides going to the grocery store every other week. When the numbers fall to maybe 0.1% positive I'll feel more comfortable resuming my normal activities.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 15, 2021)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> The problem is that after last year, many police, nurses, firefighters, etc. quit. Police were being demonized because of a few bad apples. Nurses were burnt out over COVID patients. Firefighters were burnt out over record wildfires and even blocked by protesters from putting out city fires. No one wanted these jobs where you had to put your life on the line and were sometimes publicly demonized for doing it with no one to watch your back. Fast forward to now where we are firing frontline workers in mass. Now we had a guy in Beverly Hills, CA die from a heart attack because there were no vaccinated EMTs with proper training to help, and the ones with training were sitting on the bench and not allowed to go into the field. How many more are going to die because of an artificial shortage of police, nurses, firefighters, EMTs, etc.? What about truckers and those working on transport ships? Last year all the trucking academies were shut down due to COVID. We came into this year with a shortage of truck drivers. Firing some of them is the stupidest thing we could have done. These people were sometimes robbed last year while delivering to some cities and they kept going. You don’t get rid of those that went through all that. Bravery and persistence are in short supply. Without truckers, people starve and our country falls apart. Look at the backlog of ships in Long Beach, CA. Because of a trucker shortage made worse by one decision, there is a huge backlog of ships. One ship caused a massive oil spill by dragging it’s anchor. These ships aren’t just carrying Christmas presents. Many are carrying food that could spoil because of this delay. This could cause people to starve.
> 
> I think the cure for COVID is becoming worse than the disease with all of this in mind. I miss the days where we could be respectful toward one another and treat each other as equals instead of allowing some to be treated as second class citizens. I’m tired of seeing someone who sneezes looked at like they are a mass murderer. Those that make a certain choice about their body with consultation with their doctor should be respected, not publicly demonized, fired, and banned from receiving unemployment (especially those in the military). If we don’t turn back now from the way we are going, our fear of this virus will be the end of us.


Most are quitting from burnout, not being fired due to vaccination mandates. In NYC the strict mandates only reduced the health care work force by 3%. I'm also sure if any of the fired people change their minds and get vaccinated, they'll be able to get their old jobs back.

It's a balancing act. Don't have mandates, maybe some people will be saved due to more staff but at the same time the unvaccinated workers could potentially kill more people than were saved with covid. Have mandates, you save people from dying of covid but staffing shortages may result in deaths which otherwise wouldn't have occurred. Burnout is a far bigger problem though. People refusing to be vaccinated is the primary reason hospitals are overwhelmed at this point. If you want to be respectful towards health care workers maybe get vaccinated so they're not dealing with so many cases of preventable illness. Yes, vaccinated people get sick sometimes, too, but in far smaller numbers.

BTW, nobody sends perishable goods by container. And we should be growing most of our food locally, within a few hundred miles of where it's consumed. If we're not then we're creating our own problems.


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## bykfixer (Oct 15, 2021)

The price of cow meat is a budget buster in my area so……there's plenty of cow meat in stores right now. Rib eye's on sale are $10.99 a pound. Pre-covid, $4.99. Uncooked burger patties $4 each ($16/4 pack). Pre covid $4.99. Meanwhile prices are stable for that other white meat (pork).

There's talk of turkey shortages for Thanksgiving. Fine with me as I've been trying to talk my fam-damily into Italian cuisine for years now to no avail. Maybe this year we will serve my 5 pound lasagne with the cranberry sauce.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 15, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> The price of cow meat is a budget buster in my area so……there's plenty of cow meat in stores right now. Rib eye's on sale are $10.99 a pound. Uncooked burger patties $4 each ($16/4 pack). Meanwhile prices are stable for that other white meat (pork).
> 
> There's talk of turkey shortages for Thanksgiving. Fine with me as I've been trying to talk my fam-damily into Italian cuisine for years now to no avail. Maybe this year we will serve my 5 pound lasagne with the cranberry sauce.


To me the high beef prices might be a blessing in disguise. Americans eat way too much red meat for their own health. We will save a lot of health care dollars if we cut that even by half. I already cut bacon out. Pork prices may be OK but bacon has gone off the charts. I never ate that much, just an occasional treat. But at current prices I just can't afford it any more.

I couldn't even buy chopped meat for lasagna the last time I went to the store. They were just out of it.


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## scout24 (Oct 15, 2021)

Poppy said:


> Oh cry me a river!
> 
> 
> More NYC police officers retire or resign at relatively young age - Xinhua | English.news.cn
> ...


Nobody retires from NYPD at 38. You need college or military time, and the cesspool that is NYC has very strict firearms ownership laws. Even for their officers. Did you read the article? Nowhere does it mention 38 years old. Those who DO retire after 20 years of working in one of the most thankless jobs in the worst city to do it in this counrty deserve their benefits. If you think for one second it's otherwise, I'll happily follow you around for a week as you do their job. Rolling around on the ground and dealing with the worst humanity has to offer may change your mind. I'm suprised this post came from you.


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## Poppy (Oct 15, 2021)

scout,
I don't know how many officers who are particularly happy with their job, but I do know a number who are counting the days until they reach 20 years, yet those who have advanced through the ranks, often stay on longer because of pay increases, and I suppose they are no longer rolling in the streets.

A friend that I went all through grammar and high schools, retired as chief of Police in a small town in NJ. He retired at 40 years old, full benefits.

I didn't think about the need for college now. So 18 + 4 = 22 years old, + 20 years service retired @ 42. Also, if they want their service time to count, I believe they can "buy back" into the fund. Yes it may take a few thousands, but the return is much greater.

According to that article "Two-thirds of retired police officers who began receiving full pension benefits since 2010 were under age 50 at the time, with *almost 30 percent under age 45*, said the report."

Believe me, I am NOT anti-police. Not by any stretch of the imagination. 

If anything, I am anti-the continual negative tone of the post that I responded to.

IMO the Police got a really rough ride this past year, and in many instances showed a tremendous amount of restraint.


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## Poppy (Oct 15, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> The price of cow meat is a budget buster in my area so……there's plenty of cow meat in stores right now. Rib eye's on sale are $10.99 a pound. Pre-covid, $4.99. Uncooked burger patties $4 each ($16/4 pack). Pre covid $4.99. Meanwhile prices are stable for that other white meat (pork).
> 
> There's talk of turkey shortages for Thanksgiving. Fine with me as I've been trying to talk my fam-damily into Italian cuisine for years now to no avail. Maybe this year we will serve my 5 pound lasagne with the cranberry sauce.


Wow, those prices are worse than mine.
In their sale flyer... Top round London broil $4.49 but with a digital coupon, $3.49 a pound.

I just bought some meatball/meatloaf mix - ground beef, pork, veal for $4.99 a pound.


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## turbodog (Oct 15, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> ... So for 5 to 10 years we'll probably still need drivers for local deliveries. But automation can help enormously with the driver shortage right now.
> 
> ...



You're fooling yourself if you think drivers will just sit around all day and wait to catch 30 mins of work when the AI truck rolls in. If they do wait, you're gonna pay them a full day's wage to do so.


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## turbodog (Oct 15, 2021)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> ... a trucker shortage made worse by one decision...



Agree 100%: Failure to vaccinate.


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## turbodog (Oct 15, 2021)

Poppy said:


> Wow, those prices are worse than mine.
> In their sale flyer... Top round London broil $4.49 but with a digital coupon, $3.49 a pound.
> 
> I just bought some meatball/meatloaf mix - ground beef, pork, veal for $4.99 a pound.



So maybe I should take stepfather up on his offer to give me a slaughtered steer for Christmas... around 600lb of meat. Time to shop for a deep freezer.


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## Poppy (Oct 15, 2021)

turbodog said:


> So maybe I should take stepfather up on his offer to give me a slaughtered steer for Christmas... around 600lb of meat. Time to shop for a deep freezer.


Oh yeah! And a vacuum sealer.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 15, 2021)

turbodog said:


> You're fooling yourself if you think drivers will just sit around all day and wait to catch 30 mins of work when the AI truck rolls in. If they do wait, you're gonna pay them a full day's wage to do so.


They won't have to. Would all the AI trucks arrive at the freight distribution center at exactly the same time each day? And local runs in cities typically take a full shift anyway. Load up a box truck, make a dozen or more stops, with 15 to 30 minutes unloading time at each one.


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## turbodog (Oct 15, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> They won't have to. Would all the AI trucks arrive at the freight distribution center at exactly the same time each day? And local runs in cities typically take a full shift anyway. Load up a box truck, make a dozen or more stops, with 15 to 30 minutes unloading time at each one.



You living in NY blinds you to a lot. Around here, they do curbside/dock/parking lot delivery to businesses & most homes (if there's enough room to turn around) with a full size tractor trailer.

NY is not the entire us. And those drivers are not going to hang around for crumbs. My clients that hire hundreds/thousands of CDL drivers see it play out again and again.


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## turbodog (Oct 15, 2021)

Poppy said:


> Oh yeah! And a vacuum sealer.


Comes in white butcher paper already frozen.


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## raggie33 (Oct 15, 2021)

get food that dont require cooling.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 15, 2021)

turbodog said:


> You living in NY blinds you to a lot. Around here, they do curbside/dock/parking lot delivery to businesses & most homes (if there's enough room to turn around) with a full size tractor trailer.
> 
> NY is not the entire us. And those drivers are not going to hang around for crumbs. My clients that hire hundreds/thousands of CDL drivers see it play out again and again.


Right, NYC isn't the entire US. In areas like you describe, with low traffic and far fewer pedestrians or cyclists, an AI truck can do the entire run, not just the highway part. So no need for drivers to hang around for crumbs. They currently can't in places like NYC. AI is really bad at dealing with the types of road hazards you encounter in urban areas.


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## turbodog (Oct 16, 2021)

And how are they going to do this without internet/cellular access?

Pipe dream. Today and in the future.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 17, 2021)

turbodog said:


> And how are they going to do this without internet/cellular access?
> 
> Pipe dream. Today and in the future.


Read the link? They're already doing it in Texas. They might be at the point where they no longer have a driver on board as they did in their earlier tests.

What does internet/cellular access have to do with anything besides being able to communicate enroute with the truck?


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## Splitrail (Oct 17, 2021)

How many of you don't realize how badly you've been hoodwinked?


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## bykfixer (Oct 17, 2021)

That's kinda like asking "are you asleep"……if you answer yes, you are not asleep. If you are asleep you don't really hear the question.

America has a very diverse supply chain. A few rusty links have been highlighted in the last year but the chain itself is still pretty much ok. If you live near rusty links you've probably been affected.


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## JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy (Oct 17, 2021)

It's only a matter of time before we don't drive our own vehicles. We are just not very good at it. AI based systems will achieve 2-3x higher road utilization with far far fewer accidents.


Wrt police, there are other dangerous jobs too. No servant of the taxpayer should be able to retire after only 20 years unless there is a necessity for extreme compensation to attract enough people to fill the jobs. That's not the case.


China is a giant kink in the supply chain that would take decades to replace.


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## bykfixer (Oct 17, 2021)

Last time I was in the grocery store there was a gigantic hole in the freezer section in prepared potatos like french fries and tater tots……gone. 

There was a hole in the toilet paper section too, but it was where all of those off brands normally reserved for cruise ships and hotels that filled space for most of 2021 have disappeared. At least for now the Charmin, Scott and other brands were plentiful. 

Meanwhile the 4 pack of pre-made burgers went up another $5. However there were lots of "red tag" specials where last week's were going out of date. Now to me, I prefer aged beef anyway so I stocked up. I eat about 8 hamburgers a year so I now have a years supply in stock. 

Chicken price seems to have peaked and is slowly falling. Meanwhile halloween candy is plentiful.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 17, 2021)

JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy said:


> Wrt police, there are other dangerous jobs too. No servant of the taxpayer should be able to retire after only 20 years unless there is a necessity for extreme compensation to attract enough people to fill the jobs. That's not the case.


Only possible exception to that might be if you have a very physical job where 20 years of service wears your body out to the point you can't work any more. Cops don't qualify in that regard. Some positions in construction or maintenance might qualify.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 17, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> America has a very diverse supply chain. A few rusty links have been highlighted in the last year but the chain itself is still pretty much ok. If you live near rusty links you've probably been affected.


My understanding on it, based on what I've read so far, is that the cause is primarily a spike in consumption beyond what the supply chain is capable of dealing with. People weren't able to do most things they normally can since last March. As a result, they're replacing experiences with things. The supply chain just isn't designed to deal with this. Also, we had a truck driver shortage even pre-pandemic. Now it's become more like a crisis.


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## turbodog (Oct 17, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> ...
> 
> What does internet/cellular access have to do with anything besides being able to communicate enroute with the truck?





You're telling me an insurance carrier is going to let a tractor trailer drive itself into an area where there's no way to actively control the truck _when_ an emergency arises?

Sure....


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## jtr1962 (Oct 17, 2021)

turbodog said:


> You're telling me an insurance carrier is going to let a tractor trailer drive itself into an area where there's no way to actively control the truck _when_ an emergency arises?
> 
> Sure....


For now they have drivers onboard to take control in an emergency. I'm not sure how effective this is in practice given that the "backup" driver likely wouldn't be paying attention most of the time.

Second, wouldn't typical latency/connection problems prevent effectively driving the vehicle remotely via an internet/cellular network anyway?

Ask the companies experimenting with this exactly what their plans are for these types of contingencies, not me. All I'm saying is AVs are coming. Whether it's in 2 years or 5 years or 10 years they'll eventually be around, most likely starting with commercial driving on relatively fixed routes. The truck driver shortage isn't going away. There just aren't enough people able/willing to drive trucks, even with better pay.

We could send a lot more freight by rail, but ultimately most needs to go on a truck eventually.


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## Poppy (Oct 17, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> <SNIP>There just aren't enough people able/willing to drive trucks, even with better pay.
> 
> We could send a lot more freight by rail, but ultimately most needs to go on a truck eventually.


My Dad made a decent living as a Union Tractor Trailer driver. He would usually work an hour or two overtime each day. Overtime was time and a half.
Unfortunately a lot of companies went non-union and there were plenty of people willing to work without benefits, and for less money. Then over the road work went to owner-operators. They worked for even less, and had to pay to maintain their rigs. Often they had to work more hours than regulations would allow, so that they could get the number of miles in, so they would be able to carry the expense of running their rig.

The pendulum swings both ways.
Currently it has swung too far to the low pay side for drivers, it needs to swing back the other way. In time it will balance out.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 17, 2021)

Poppy said:


> My Dad made a decent living as a Union Tractor Trailer driver. He would usually work an hour or two overtime each day. Overtime was time and a half.


My parents came of age during the best time to be a worker in the US-from the 1950s through the early 1970s. A person with just a high school diploma could earn enough to support a family. Housing could easily be had for 25% or less of your take-home pay. If you got a college degree you could write your own ticket. My dad drove tractor trailers for S.B. Thomas for a while. Then he started working for the city in the mid 1960s.

Things started going south in the mid 1970s. That trend accelerated by the 1980s. Now even with a college degree you might be living paycheck to paycheck. Housing prices are completely ridiculous.


Poppy said:


> Unfortunately a lot of companies went non-union and there were plenty of people willing to work without benefits, and for less money. Then over the road work went to owner-operators. They worked for even less, and had to pay to maintain their rigs. Often they had to work more hours than regulations would allow, so that they could get the number of miles in, so they would be able to carry the expense of running their rig.
> 
> The pendulum swings both ways.
> Currently it has swung too far to the low pay side for drivers, it needs to swing back the other way. In time it will balance out.


The pendulum is already swinging back finally. Too late for people like me who got the screw the entire working lives, but maybe today's 20 and 30 somethings will have it better. The only caveat is businesses will fight back replacing high-paid employees with automation wherever possible.


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## turbodog (Oct 17, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> ... The only caveat is businesses will fight back replacing high-paid employees with automation wherever possible.



Business do what they need to survive. If they are forced to cut costs it's usually because customers flock to the cheapest offering.

It's not too late for you, but you need to do things which aren't in your preferences and nature.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 17, 2021)

turbodog said:


> It's not too late for you, but you need to do things which aren't in your preferences and nature.


No it is. I'm almost 59. My mom requires full-time care. There's no scenario where I would be ahead by much, if at all, working, then paying people to take care of her. And until the pandemic ends no way would I have people whose medical status is unknown in the house. My mom is almost 83. Her older sister just hit 92. So by the time I get my freedom back I'll probably be well into my 60s, possibly even 70s. Last thing I'll want to do at that age is worry about getting a job. I probably won't be in any shape for it given how I already feel. My dad retired at 60. By that point he really couldn't work any more.

While I'm not rich, when my last consulting job ended in early 2018 I made the decision to just retire. If I'm conservative with my spending I should be OK.


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## Poppy (Oct 19, 2021)

Yesterday I made a costco run for water, TP, and paper towels.
I had to buy Charmin brand TP because I saw a lady pick up the last of the Costco/Kirkland brand. Charmin is a little more expensive, but now our hinnies will be Charmin clean 

I also picked up a large container of Folgers coffee.

The news commentators, yesterday, were aghast that there may be a supply chain problem causing a coffee shortage. So one can fairly well bet, that *there will be a shortage* caused by hording.

Crazy huh?


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## JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy (Oct 21, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> Only possible exception to that might be if you have a very physical job where 20 years of service wears your body out to the point you can't work any more. Cops don't qualify in that regard. Some positions in construction or maintenance might qualify.



True, but they are not public sector jobs normally.


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## JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy (Oct 21, 2021)

turbodog said:


> You're telling me an insurance carrier is going to let a tractor trailer drive itself into an area where there's no way to actively control the truck _when_ an emergency arises?
> 
> Sure....



I would make a bet, but that will be taking candy from a baby. Insurance companies don't look fondly on self-driving cars. A magnitude or more reduction in accidents won't be good for their bottom line.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Oct 21, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> Only possible exception to that might be if you have a very physical job where 20 years of service wears your body out to the point you can't work any more. Cops don't qualify in that regard. Some positions in construction or maintenance might qualify.


 
Perhaps the stress LEOs face day in and day out also merits the same consideration as you place on very physical jobs. I don't think steady doses of adrenaline produce any long-term health benefits.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 21, 2021)

JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy said:


> I would make a bet, but that will be taking candy from a baby. Insurance companies don't look fondly on self-driving cars. A magnitude or more reduction in accidents won't be good for their bottom line.


Exactly. In fact, if all cars were self-driven think about the things you wouldn't need any more:

1) DMV and anything associated with driver licensing
2) Judges and traffic courts
3) Traffic signals
4) Accident lawyers
5) "Rehab" places which specialize in car collision victims
6) Traffic cops
7) Body shops (well maybe a few but it wouldn't be a big business any more)
8) Insurance companies (AVs will most likely be self-insured by the company that makes them since collisions will be low enough for them to afford to do this)

Hospitals would lose a lot business as well. Car collisions are one of the top sources of injury for most age groups.

I'm sure I'm missing a lot more but poor driving habits and the resulting collisions are unfortunately big business. Those vested in the status quo will try to spread FUD about self-driving cars, and try to stop their development, even though the general population will benefit enormously from them. Of course, we're not there yet but even in their current state of development AVs are safer than most human drivers.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 21, 2021)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Perhaps the stress LEOs face day in and day out also merits the same consideration as you place on very physical jobs. I don't think steady doses of adrenaline produce any long-term health benefits.



Any job dealing with the general public is stressful. That's why those are the jobs where people are quitting in droves. I agree it's probably not great for your health to be a cop for 20 years.


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## bykfixer (Oct 21, 2021)

Uh, what was the topic here? 
Oh, pandemic supply chain. 

So this week on the radio a higher up from the Norfolk VA port was being interviewed about the state of things on the east coast. He went into detail why some ports are clogged while others are not. He said the pile ups reported by the news each day lately is not due to not enough trucks but due to too much product showing up at the same time to an outdated port system. 

So the supply is there it seems, it's just log jammed in some places. My area in general is pretty normal except for stuff people are panic buying.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 21, 2021)

Yes, basically we bought a lot more stuff over a shorter time span than normal, so the supply chain can't cope with it. Obviously the factories are turning the stuff out or we wouldn't have dozens of ships waiting to be unloaded.


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## raggie33 (Oct 21, 2021)

im scared pretty bad .ive got many survival gears a cool rocket stove that can burn anything to cook its crazy crazy god it uses scince to get many btus its metal and ceramic . i still think the system is going to collapse . no food on the shelfs no meds no nothing


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## Hooked on Fenix (Oct 21, 2021)

For those of you in New York City, only about 60% of your firefighters, paramedics, and sanitation workers (currently) will be allowed to work next month. Tell me how you feel next month when the filth piles up on the streets. I don’t think getting the remaining workers to do 12+ hour shifts will help with worker retention long term.

As far as our supply chain issues, it would help if California would suspend AB5 as it pertains to letting independent truck drivers help with the shipping problems at the ports. It might also help if the law banning diesel trucks at the L.A. port was suspended so cargo didn’t get loaded onto natural gas trucks and shipped a mile away (to skirt that law) before getting reloaded on diesel trucks. That law causes a huge bottleneck at the port and does nothing to lower pollution.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 22, 2021)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> For those of you in New York City, only about 60% of your firefighters, paramedics, and sanitation workers (currently) will be allowed to work next month. Tell me how you feel next month when the filth piles up on the streets. I don’t think getting the remaining workers to do 12+ hour shifts will help with worker retention long term.


Personally I'm fine with it. I'm not saying anything beyond that because this thread is about pandemic supply issues.


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## JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy (Oct 22, 2021)

jtr1962 said:


> Any job dealing with the general public is stressful. That's why those are the jobs where people are quitting in droves. I agree it's probably not great for your health to be a cop for 20 years.



Neither is working most retail jobs, but they make 1/3 - 1/6th the pay, and no pension.


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## JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy (Oct 22, 2021)

raggie33 said:


> im scared pretty bad .ive got many survival gears a cool rocket stove that can burn anything to cook its crazy crazy god it uses scince to get many btus its metal and ceramic . i still think the system is going to collapse . no food on the shelfs no meds no nothing



The US has huge domestic food production. Also significant grain stores and it is easy to prioritize food in shipping. Medicine is small and can go by plane ... many of which are still idle.

Relax, things are not that bad. If China stops shipping to the US, that could be painful.


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## JustAnOldFashionedLEDGuy (Oct 22, 2021)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> For those of you in New York City, only about 60% of your firefighters, paramedics, and sanitation workers (currently) will be allowed to work next month. Tell me how you feel next month when the filth piles up on the streets. I don’t think getting the remaining workers to do 12+ hour shifts will help with worker retention long term.
> 
> As far as our supply chain issues, it would help if California would suspend AB5 as it pertains to letting independent truck drivers help with the shipping problems at the ports. It might also help if the law banning diesel trucks at the L.A. port was suspended so cargo didn’t get loaded onto natural gas trucks and shipped a mile away (to skirt that law) before getting reloaded on diesel trucks. That law causes a huge bottleneck at the port and does nothing to lower pollution.



If Sanitation workers in NYC put in a full shift every day, then 60% of them would be enough to do the job. Totally overpaid job. There will be a ton of hard working people more than willing to fill the holes at what they get paid. Paramedics? ... no, not only 60% will be working, nor Firefighters. 

Diesel trucks are not banned at the LA port. Clean Diesel of alternate fuel (Nat Gas/Electric) is required. The clean diesel requirement reduced diesel truck fine particulate emissions in the surrounding communities by 95%. They went from the largest source to a small source. I would not call that nothing.


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## bykfixer (Oct 22, 2021)

The US labor staus


All things considered, this could be the best time in a long while for the leverage of the average worker in the US. But for how long? Between robots and regulations job numbers may be cut soon. :popcorn:




www.candlepowerforums.com




Here's a place to discuss labor issues.


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## bykfixer (Nov 1, 2021)

Candy……gone……all of it. I'm not used to seeing every last bag of halloween sized candy gone on Halloween. There's usually a bag or two of skittles, good n plenty or other not so sweet candy but not this year. Even the candy corn was all gone. 

Cow has begun to settle back down to a reasonable price in my area. Certain brands of tobacco products are hit or miss lately. And the one thing that surprises me is staples for the office stapler are scarce in my area. I found some after checking three stores. 

There was a brief run on gasoline when rumors went out that prices would rise soon. It went from $2.99 a gallon to $3.19. Then $3.29, and that was when folks started the run. Last week it was $3.26 so I kinda chuckled at the hoarders. 

My favorite fresh cooked chicken tenders at the grocery store jumped from $3.49 for 6 to $4.99 for 4. Yikes!


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## idleprocess (Nov 1, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> There was a brief run on gasoline when rumors went out that prices would rise soon. It went from $2.99 a gallon to $3.19. Then $3.29, and that was when folks started the run. Last week it was $3.26 so I kinda chuckled at the hoarders.


Hopefully you didn't suffer any of the geniuses the Dallas area had in 2017.


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## Poppy (Nov 1, 2021)

Looking at the SALE flyer, in my area, I am seeing a lot more NOT MEAT, in the meat section, such as chik'in, and meatless meat balls! They cost as much as the real thing!, or more!

On Sale items include:
T bone steak, and New York Strip steak, each regular price about $12/ lb, on sale at $9 a lb.

not on sale, but available... Top round London broil, $8.99 / lb. Last year I used to get it for $2.99 on sale.

As you enter the foyer of the store they have racks of bags of Doritos chips etc. with a big sign $4 as though that is cheap! Junk snack food has also gone through the roof. I'm glad I am trying to stay away from that.


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## bykfixer (Nov 1, 2021)

Poppy, 
Perhaps you remember paying more for "no lead" gas even though the lead was added, so like not meat-meat you'da thunk it would have cost less…


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## knucklegary (Nov 1, 2021)

JennyO ground turkey on sale now at $5 per 1lb pkg..
Add a lot of seasoning and most 5 yr old kids won't know the difference

Chevron Super this morning $5.29 gal, Whoopee!!


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## Poppy (Nov 1, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> Poppy,
> Perhaps you remember paying more for "no lead" gas even though the lead was added, so like not meat-meat you'da thunk it would have cost less…


LOL... yeah. In fact, the no chicken chik'in cost more than the real thing.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 1, 2021)

Poppy said:


> As you enter the foyer of the store they have racks of bags of Doritos chips etc. with a big sign $4 as though that is cheap! Junk snack food has also gone through the roof. I'm glad I am trying to stay away from that.


That's been going on long before the pandemic. A 9.5 oz bag of Doritos has a regular price of $4.29 now I think. I only buy it when the store has a 2 for $5 sale. Even then it's not really worth it. A few years ago the bag size was I think 10 oz, the regular price was $2.99, and there were often 2 for $3 sales. It's not like the cost to produce snacks went up dramatically. The manufacturers just seem to be testing how addicted people are by raising the price to whatever the market will bear. An 8 oz bag of potato chips was $0.99 a few years ago. Now the bag size shrunk to 6 oz (and they're trying 5.5), while the price is at best $1.99, but often $2.99.



Poppy said:


> Looking at the SALE flyer, in my area, I am seeing a lot more NOT MEAT, in the meat section, such as chik'in, and meatless meat balls! They cost as much as the real thing!, or more!
> 
> On Sale items include:
> T bone steak, and New York Strip steak, each regular price about $12/ lb, on sale at $9 a lb.
> ...


I'm all for meat substitutes, but if they're going to cost as much or more than the real thing, what's the point?

As for regular meat, same philosophy as snacks. If it costs more than I think it's worth, I just stop buying it. I haven't bought bacon or steak in a long time. In fact, when any meat is $8 or $9 a pound they can keep it.


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## Poppy (Nov 1, 2021)

I don't know a lot of prices, but I know that "Shop Rite" often sells coffee as a loss leader, about $1.99 a pound, when not on sale it's about $4.29 a pound. Of course, a pound isn't a pound any more, it's more like 11 ounces, and the two pound can is about 24 ounces.


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## bykfixer (Nov 6, 2021)

Went to a clearance store called Gabes this evening. Each year I buy a few pair of gloves and warm head wear for give aways and this year there were plenty, though not as much as 2019. In 2020 there was slim pickings but this year there were a lot of choices. 

They carry name brands I've never heard of and ones I have. Anyway the racks were full again this year and all stuffed together. Last year racks were spread out and not loaded. When nearly every clothing store was shut down Gabes had toilet paper, pop tarts and other staples so they were deemed essential. 
The toilet paper was $1 a roll for a small roll of single ply last year.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 6, 2021)

Ahh, Pop Tarts. I read an article a few months ago where they were mentioned in terms of a general indicator of supply chain readiness, in the same vein as the Waffle House index.


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## jtr1962 (Nov 6, 2021)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Ahh, Pop Tarts. I read an article a few months ago where they were mentioned in terms of a general indicator of supply chain readiness, in the same vein as the Waffle House index.


My local grocery store had the boxes of 8 on sale this week at 2 for $4. I picked up 6 boxes, mostly because they finally had frosted brown sugar cinnamon. I hadn't seen that flavor in months. I was fearing it might be discontinued.


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## idleprocess (Nov 7, 2021)

Local Costco had no shortage of toilet paper the other day.


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## bykfixer (Nov 8, 2021)

Yeah I too noticed dish washer powder missing. But I wondered if that was a demand thing like laundry soap powder.

I noticed a large hole where Lance crackers and the store brand are usually located. Those vending machine type that come wrapped 6 at a time. How long they've been gone I do not know because 1 box of Captains wafers lasts my bird a year so I rarely visit the crackers/cookies row anymore.

My local Best Buy looks like a 1980's cold war era Best Buy…empty shelves and hooks galore. They've been slowly going down hill for a few years now. They have plenty of drones though.


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## scout24 (Nov 9, 2021)

Was at our quasi-local Hobby Lobby yesterday with my Wifedoing some craft and Christmas shopping. The store was so full it wasn't funny. Seasonal, off season, didn't matter. Piled to the rafters. If only my local grocery store(s) were the same. Some ""fronted" shelves, brands not seen pre-pandemic, and empty spots. Almost like they have say 80% of product needed to fill 100% of the shelves. It hasn't been getting worse yet which is good. Regular unleaded is holding steady at $3.59 9/10 a gallon for the last 10 days or so after a quick two week climb from about $3.25...


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## Poppy (Nov 9, 2021)

We had a new large Shop Rite open near us. My daughter was there opening day, and noted that not all of the shelves were stocked yet. There was rice, lots of it, but two days later the rice isle was stripped naked.

Yesterday, I was in a large shop rite at the Jersey Shore area, and it was very well stocked, I didn't see holes anywhere.

A few days ago, I needed to replace my Norelco triple header shaver. I wanted the plug into the wall style. Years ago, I had a rechargeable, and the battery didn't last too long. After a few years, it had to be tossed. I replaced that with a corded model, and it lasted for 10-20 years, I really don't know. Finally it was dropped and broke. Walmart had a bunch of different models, but they were all rechargeable (although the website stated that they had corded ones in stock), so I went next door to Best Buy, and the same scenario. I bought a rechargeable. At least now it would be a LiIon, not a NiCad as the previous purchase probably was.


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## bykfixer (Nov 13, 2021)

For about the last 6 weeks or so when I ask for Dr Pepper at restaraunts they all say they are out. 

Steak joints, fast food, pizza place, all of them. 
The grocery store has plenty in stock but for some reason fountain style Dr Pepper is MIA.


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## Poppy (Nov 18, 2021)

Bottled water:
A couple of days ago, I made a Costco run for honey and bottled water.
They were completely out of their 40x16oz kirkland water. They had pallats of 40x 8oz bottles of Poland Spring @ $7 a case.

Tonight a quick walkthrough a huge Shop Rite, Sour cream was back in stock, but they too had a water shortage. I picked up a case of no name spring water, but otherwise, all they had was 1 and 2 gallon bottles of Poland Spring. The store otherwise seemed to be well stocked.


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## thermal guy (Nov 18, 2021)

I live in a little hick town and during the height of the Corona virus you would never of know anything was up. The big stores “ Walmart, Wegman’s “ were picked dry and people there were going nuts. My town didn’t run out of basically anything. People were panic buying still but we all had plenty


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## Poppy (Nov 18, 2021)

My daughter just came back from the same Shop Rite. She traveled more isles than I. She said there were huge holes in things that you would want for Thanksgiving. No spinach dip, but two brands of cheese dip, cauliflower and brussel sprouts were in short supply. She found three cans of jellied cranberry sauce, but no whole cranberries. Its been reported that small turkeys will be in short supply, large ones MAY be available.


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## 3_gun (Nov 19, 2021)

Did my shopping yesterday. Some items were missing by brand but not by type. No real shortage of anything as far as I saw. Store were Bjs & AutoZone


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## bykfixer (Nov 21, 2021)

Plenty of 20# turkeys at the store I shop at. Frozen kind were like $7 versus around $6 last year. The butterball non frozen kind though……32 bucks. 

The only gaps I saw were in the juice row like cranberry juice and apple juice were a big seller this year. Not the dairy case kind but the kind on the Hawiian punch/juice box row.


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## idleprocess (Nov 21, 2021)

The great toilet paper shortage of 2021 appears to be over.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 21, 2021)

I agree, at least in my area. Plenty of TP everywhere here, just the occasional strange gaps in particular products but not entire categories. I was at the grocery store this evening and they had probably 90-95% of the stuff that they usually do.


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## bykfixer (Dec 12, 2021)

Pert shampoo and Fruit 2.0 water have gone missing at my local grocery store. Fruit 2.0 has been missing since summer. Today Pert was not only missing there were no slots for it. 

It seems the fruit 2.0 is stuck in litigation or something so that may be why we don't see it locally. Of course the big a has it, but as a rule I avoid that place.


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## Spin (Dec 12, 2021)

idleprocess said:


> The great toilet paper shortage of 2021 appears to be over.


That's great news. Don't want to get caught with my pants down! :>)


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 12, 2021)

Last week I stopped by the grocery store and went to the cooler to get some half & half for my coffee. They were out.  just got real.


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## Splitrail (Dec 12, 2021)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Last week I stopped by the grocery store and went to the cooler to get some half & half for my coffee. They were out.  just got real.


That WOULD be tough!
I'm going into town right now and buying every drop of half & half I can get my hands on!


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Dec 13, 2021)

Splitrail said:


> That WOULD be tough!
> I'm going into town right now and buying every drop of half & half I can get my hands on!


........ and so it begins.


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## bykfixer (Dec 13, 2021)

I can see it now…… "this just in, klepto hipster arrested for accosting Santa Clause at the 7-11 coffee bar for using the last of the half-n-half"
"Police found 327 of those 2oz containers of the famous coffee additive stuffed inside the alleged assailants man-purse, now back to you Jane"…

"In a related story it seems folks are looting local coffee bars and gas stations for the famous additive as rumors of shortages circulated at a flashlight forum just yesterday, now to Ken with sports".

"Well Jane, it seems we have a new name for the world Rugby championships and a fitting name it is……the half-n-half bowl".


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 13, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> I can see it now…… "this just in, klepto hipster arrested for accosting Santa Clause at the 7-11 coffee bar for using the last of the half-n-half"
> "Police found 327 of those 2oz containers of the famous coffee additive stuffed inside the alleged assailants man-purse, now back to you Jane"…
> 
> "In a related story it seems folks are looting local coffee bars and gas stations for the famous additive as rumors of shortages circulated at a flashlight forum just yesterday, now to Ken with sports".
> ...


Lol! Ok, before anyone rushes out to panic buy, I did find some at the drugstore nearby, and that grocery store has now restocked. Call the newsroom and tell them it's ok to throw to the weather now.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Dec 13, 2021)

Granny, that's how everyone that knows her addresses my mom, and I went to the Fort Lewis / McChord commissary yesterday. The only item I noticed missing from the shelves was wet kitty food in a case. Otherwise, the shelves were packed.


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## Poppy (Dec 13, 2021)

The problems affecting the West Coast, don't seem to be a problem on the East coast. IE no room for containers, and no trailers to move the containers around. Too many ships full of containers.

Last weekend I was in/near the Boston Harbor. I don't know if the container cranes were working. There were a number of containers, and empty trailers.











In New Jersey, the Port of Newark is reportedly operating as usual, with no interruptions.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Dec 15, 2021)

Spin said:


> That's great news. Don't want to get caught with my pants down! :>)


What makes you think you'll have pants?https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/cotton-prices/index.html


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## bykfixer (Dec 22, 2021)

Many may not realize that tarriffs imposed not that long ago are still in place. When it was all over the news that they were likely a bunch of companies put in tremendous orders for products made overseas. Then the Rona hit along with the tarriffs and suddenly the factories got quiet.

Then just like a light switch things turned back on for various reasons and suddenly there were log jams all over the place. All through 2020 Americans were consuming goods ordered before the pandemic caused a worldwide slow down. In 2021 they were depleted. That's not the whole reason for disruptions but it plays a big part.

To turn off a global supply chain on Tuesday and turn it back on Wednesday a year later does not happen without issues. Couple that with what looks like it could be taxes and fees imposed on some businesses and they tend to move with caution so again, log jams occur from lack of confidence in an evolving process of doing business globally.

The global system in place is very complicated. Ships arriving on the east coast for example have had to travel a whole lot farther than those arriving on the west coast in many cases. Ports on the east coast have largely been updated to compensate for the global system where some on the west coast have not.

Ok, a little tin hat theory: a decade ago it looked like a giant port on the west coast of Mexico was the future. Goods would then be transported east to the middle of Mexico and moved north through Texas. It was a very big undertaking funded by a world wide system that has not made it to fruition at this point. In America a giant toll road called I-77 was conceived as the route. Portions are built and other portions are being built. However the gaps have nixed the idea thus far. If I-77 is ever completed it will change the face of commerce in America, from Mexico to Canada. But for now the old system is still in place.

Many "global" thinking entities put their resources into the ginormous Mexican port instead of updating US ports. If you know who owns the ports it helps understand how we got where we are in the US. In many cases the ports are no longer American owned and operated.


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## KITROBASKIN (Dec 22, 2021)

Marine Traffic image from Cauldryn battery heating water bottle to explain why their new heating bottle is not in yet.


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## bykfixer (Dec 22, 2021)

"And now for traffic with Brian"……"
Well Dave there's a huge pile up on the pacific ocean"……


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## jtr1962 (Dec 22, 2021)

bykfixer said:


> "And now for traffic with Brian"……"
> Well Dave there's a huge pile up on the pacific ocean"……


I was thinking exactly the same thing seeing that.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 1, 2022)

It's been tough trying to find home Covid testing kits in stores lately. I found a lesser known brand online but I haven't seen the Abbott Binax kits for awhile. I've heard that major sports teams are snatching up a lot of them.


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## bykfixer (Jan 2, 2022)

Holy Crap! They call for one hour of rain changed to snow mix in my area and the place looks like a Moscow grocery store circa 1982. I pitty the folks who slept in this morning. The thing I do not understand is what-the-h-e-double hockey sticks is the reason for buying 22 stalks of celery? 

Panic buying has set back in it seems. Plenty of toilet paper but no Gatorade or Power Ade to be had. And it's not on sale. Want orange juice? Sorry fella. Cold and Flu med? Yeah right. Bacon? Sorry Charlie. I speculate it's omni-cron related, since last week the radio said a person contracts it every 3 seconds lately. That's 3 not 30. Good gosh!! 

It was not as bad as this time last year but it was not unusual to see a cart with 15 bags of potato chips along with 10-5# packs of fresh chicken to go with the 32 cartons of soda. It was either panic buying or a buncha people stocking the pantry at day care centers. 

I told Mrs Fixer "it aint because of snow"…"why do you say that?" she replied. "Because they have 300 loaves of bread on the bread row and 300 gallons of milk in the refrigetator". 

This was week #7 or 8 with no Pert shampoo so that stuff must have gone the way of the vcr or honest plolitician……they must have stopped making the stuff. 
No local drug stores have it either.


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## idleprocess (Jan 2, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> I speculate it's omni-cron related, since last week the radio said a person contracts it every 3 seconds lately. That's 3 not 30. Good gosh!!


One way or another it likely is. If it's not panic buying it's one of the dozens of other supply chain disruptions that have shown just how many things have to go right _in sequence_ for JIT logistics to avoid bare shelves.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 2, 2022)

Looks like bacon or any other pig meat might be a thing of the past in California. A new law took effect at the start of the year that requires pigs have more space to live in their pens. If companies don’t make their pig pens larger, they can’t sell the meat in or to California. There are two problems with this law. First, the pig farmers have to compete against each other, so anyone who does the required upgrades loses market share to competitors and is then priced out of the market since they can’t recoup their expenses. This has caused very few companies to even bother to comply with the new law. Second, even if they comply, there is no slaughterhouse in the U.S. that segregates California meat from other meat so there is no way to be compliant with the law and sell pig meat to California. Goodbye bacon. I guess I’ll have to become a pig farmer and keep all the meat for myself to have a proper breakfast. That or we can clear out the people in government that write these stupid laws.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 2, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> One way or another it likely is. If it's not panic buying it's one of the dozens of other supply chain disruptions that have shown just how many things have to go right _in sequence_ for JIT logistics to avoid bare shelves.


The pandemic has clearly shown the Big Flaw in JIT logistics. Too many potential points of failure with inadequate buffers in the process. JIT assumes that the entire supply chain is online 24x7x365 and will always work perfectly.


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## bykfixer (Jan 2, 2022)

Just In Time logistics isn't as much the issue as demand flipping on and off like a light switch going from completely off to completely wide open with panic buying. 

Even the stock market has an option to shut off when things move too rapidly. What I saw in the grocery store today was simply people hoarding from fear of something or other. Same as the 2019 toilet paper shortages and last years gasoline hoarding issues. I saw what I saw today back around the 45 days to slow the spread and then on a lesser scale the "Delta" scare where tater tots and ice cream sandwiches were the panic sticken products. 

Simply put, when 30% of the customer base starts suddenly ratcheting up their purchases 500% (such as 20 frozen pizzas in the cart instead of 3) things are bound to run short at times.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Jan 2, 2022)

I'm stocking up in case there's a shortage - thereby creating the shortage.


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## Poppy (Jan 2, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> I'm stocking up in case there's a shortage - thereby creating the shortage.


It's true. If there is a suggestion that there will be a shortage, and people bought an extra 5% or 10%, within a week, the supply chain would catch up. But, when people hoard stuff, they create a problem where there would not be one. I recall (last year) seeing a lady with a cart FULL of chicken, and where there was a fair amount of chicken for sale, there was now... NONE! I could only shake my head.

Thankfully I haven't seen that happening quite yet. Perhaps, if they shut the schools, people will start to think that they may shut businesses again, and the panic buying will begin. In my town, they haven't gone virtual in the schools, yet. But the neighboring towns have. A couple of weeks here or there, it'll be similar all over.


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## bykfixer (Jan 2, 2022)

Not to say the supply chain is without some weak or weakened links, but I honestly believe much of the issues in the last 24 months have largely been due to panic buying, going back to rumors of tariffs when companies were buying like a drunken sailor before prices went up. 

In 2019, I worked at a project where the contractor stored several million $ worth of foreign made pipe at a site near the project that they bought before the tariffs began. In 2020 the price of the pipe had nearly doubled. In 2021 it was a crap shoot if you could even buy the pipe at all.

Lately fresh made concrete has been hit or miss for small quantities but that same contractor has no trouble receiving small batches because somebody had the where-with-all to order a daily batch for the next two years back in 2020. 

They had placed a gigantic order for concrete pipe and suppliers said "screw you hoarder" lol. They are just now receiving small batches of concrete pipe after months of delays while the suppliers filled the small orders from non hoarders.


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## idleprocess (Jan 2, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Not to say the supply chain is without some weak or weakened links, but I honestly believe much of the issues in the last 24 months have largely been due to panic buying, going back to rumors of tariffs when companies were buying like a drunken sailor before prices went up.


I'm in no position to say what the dominant factor is, but the uncertainties that transportation and production snags have introduced into the economy the past ~2 years have spiked demand for warehouse space as companies increase their safety stock to a degree not seen in decades. Like consumers, producers are panic-buying - stock on the shelf is apparently more valuable at the moment than money in the bank.


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## bykfixer (Jan 2, 2022)

If I recall correct it was about 1993 when a downturn in the economy seemed to shift from stockpiles to Just In Time policies for many items related to road building in my area. Prior a contractor who build storm sewer inlets for example could buy the steel bars, the steps, manhole lid etc as they needed from stockpiles. Same with water pipe, fire hydrants etc. But suddenly if you had not placed an order well in advance of expected delivery then "oops, shoulda called us yesterday". 

I read a story about Ford taking a cue from Honda where they build storage space for seats from out side suppliers because time is money. The bean counters had noted that the assembly line being halted even for an hour due to a shipment arriving late could end up costing more than the cost of company owned storage space.

Meanwhile companies like Proctor & Gamble are shedding slow selling brands like Pert Plus shampoo, Sure deodarant etc to companies outside the US so one can longer find Sure in the local CVS but if they live in Egypt…no problem. If you used to use Vitalis, not even Amazon has that stuff anymore. At least for now.


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## dc38 (Jan 2, 2022)

A simple remedy for shops would be to pro-rate supplies during a shortage, with respect to family size. It's not gouging, it's maintaining fair market value, and helping to retain the value and flow of both cash and goods. The first one is sold at fair market, and unless you have valid proof or license of charity etc, then you may not purchase multiples at whatever retail price is. Basically the more you buy, the more the unit cost goes up. Simple econ, right?

That way, supply and demand stay competitive until the supply chain fixes itself.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 2, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> Like consumers, producers are panic-buying - stock on the shelf is apparently more valuable at the moment than money in the bank.


It’s called inflation. People know that the prices of everything are going up so they’re stockpiling now to avoid paying what they can’t afford later. California just increased minimum wage to $15 an hour. I’m sure that’s not helping. With all the supply chain disruptions, you have to horde a little to keep from running out of what you need. Unfortunately, that makes it a little worse for everyone else. We’re in a wage-price (inflationary) spiral.


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## idleprocess (Jan 2, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> With all the supply chain disruptions, you have to horde a little to keep from running out of what you need.


That's been the theme in all the stories I've heard about the warehousing space crunch. No one expects to return to the days of warehousing a quarter's worth of components or raw materials, but many sectors are taking a step back from prior JIT practices to reduce uncertainties.


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## turbodog (Jan 3, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Looks like bacon or any other pig meat might be a thing of the past in California. A new law took effect at the start of the year that requires pigs have more space to live in their pens. If companies don’t make their pig pens larger, they can’t sell the meat in or to California. There are two problems with this law. First, the pig farmers have to compete against each other, so anyone who does the required upgrades loses market share to competitors and is then priced out of the market since they can’t recoup their expenses. This has caused very few companies to even bother to comply with the new law. Second, even if they comply, there is no slaughterhouse in the U.S. that segregates California meat from other meat so there is no way to be compliant with the law and sell pig meat to California. Goodbye bacon. I guess I’ll have to become a pig farmer and keep all the meat for myself to have a proper breakfast. That or we can clear out the people in government that write these stupid laws.











Bacongate: How a new law may affect breakfast plates in California


A new California law set to begin at the start of 2022 has some fearing that bacon may become scarce in the state.




www.latimes.com


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## scout24 (Jan 3, 2022)

I've mentioned this here on CPF before, but it's still topical. Our daughter has a friend whose Mother and Grandmother came here from Russia. Mom in her 20's, Grandmother in her 40's. Both still have a noticeable accent, and talk of going to the stores for food (nevermind clothing and consumer goods) and having the front windows and shelves filled with empty boxes. The few things you could buy were all together in one section. I still have my Grandmother and great-Grandmother's ration books from WWII (Grandfather was 3rd ID on the ground in Germany and Austria.) All of them are or were firm believers in a deep pantry, and I believe there is wisdom there. Canned veggies that were $.47 a can in the spring of 2020 are now $.79. Nothing's going to be cheaper, or more available, than it is today for a long time to come. Take what you will from these words.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 3, 2022)

scout24 said:


> I've mentioned this here on CPF before, but it's still topical. Our daughter has a friend whose Mother and Grandmother came here from Russia. Mom in her 20's, Grandmother in her 40's. Both still have a noticeable accent, and talk of going to the stores for food (nevermind clothing and consumer goods) and having the front windows and shelves filled with empty boxes. The few things you could buy were all together in one section. I still have my Grandmother and great-Grandmother's ration books from WWII (Grandfather was 3rd ID on the ground in Germany and Austria.) All of them are or were firm believers in a deep pantry, and I believe there is wisdom there. Canned veggies that were $.47 a can in the spring of 2020 are now $.79. Nothing's going to be cheaper, or more available, than it is today for a long time to come. Take what you will from these words.


I've shopped that way for ages. When things which aren't perishable are on sale, I stock up. You don't just save money, but if you're stuck at home for a while due to a disaster at least you have stuff to eat.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 3, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> I've shopped that way for ages. When things which aren't perishable are on sale, I stock up. You don't just save money, but if you're stuck at home for a while due to a disaster at least you have stuff to eat.


With these supply shortages, people start shaming you for hoarding if you try to stock up a little. I see it differently. With a pandemic, each trip to the grocery store is a gamble on whether or not I get sick and spread it to others. If I only have to shop every other week or once a month, I’m lowering the risk of getting sick and spreading it to others. That is reducing the need to get tested and using emergency services. In San Diego, the fire department issued an emergency services brown out because many of their employees called out sick. There is less ambulance service if needed right now. The vaccine doesn’t work for the newest variant and masks really never worked. The best option now is limiting contact with people.

Here's a news article about the emergency services brown out that starts today: https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/l...d-19/509-8f180707-77a9-4942-93a6-e5cb5283ac89


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## jtr1962 (Jan 3, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> With these supply shortages, people start shaming you for hoarding if you try to stock up a little. I see it differently. With a pandemic, each trip to the grocery store is a gamble on whether or not I get sick and spread it to others. If I only have to shop every other week or once a month, I’m lowering the risk of getting sick and spreading it to others. That is reducing the need to get tested and using emergency services. In San Diego, the fire department issued an emergency services brown out because many of their employees called out sick. There is less ambulance service if needed right now. The vaccine doesn’t work for the newest variant and masks really never worked. The best option now is limiting contact with people.


Well, I've been shopping every other week for exactly the reasons you mentioned. Since I'm going shopping infrequently, I fill up my shopping cart each time I go. The cart holds maybe 100 pounds of groceries. Easy enough to wheel it back the four blocks to home. So far nobody has shamed me. I even stocked up on toilet paper, getting one 20 pack every trip or every other trip.

As for masks, since delta it would have been prudent to wear either N95 masks or respirators. Surgical masks are OK if you go when the store isn't crowded, like I do. Cloth masks are hit or miss. Some are OK, many are useless and more a fashion statement. Anyway, with omicron hitting it's an N95 mask for me until it abates.


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## wjv (Jan 3, 2022)

Been buying extra for a while now. I have 12 lbs of ground beef and 20lb+ of checken breast. 6 lbs of cheeses, 10 lbs of butter and other similar basic foods. All stored in a couple freezers.

Here in SW WA State we haven't seen many shortages. Gas is still $3.40 if you shop around. Occasionaly the paper products section at costco or wally world are low. 

Noticed the selection of freeze dried food #10 cans at wally world are pretty slim. 

I have 111 #10 cans of Augason Farms freeze dried food with 25 year shelf lifes. Another 173 two serving pouches of Mountain House and Alpine Aire freezed dried meals. Then 5 gallon buckets of rice, sugar, flour, oats, pasta and beans. Plus a lot of canned goods. . . Especially canned meats.

Did some shopping when COVID first hit in case we were locked down and couldn't leave our homes.

Also have a lot of stored water and propane tanks so I can prepare meals on our camping stove if necessary.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 3, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> As for masks, since delta it would have been prudent to wear either N95 masks or respirators. Surgical masks are OK if you go when the store isn't crowded, like I do. Cloth masks are hit or miss. Some are OK, many are useless and more a fashion statement. Anyway, with omicron hitting it's an N95 mask for me until it abates.


Unfortunately for me, I have breathing problems wearing a mask. That's why I got fully vaccinated, so I didn't have to wear one. Three weeks after I got my second shot, I had an irregular heartbeat, myoclonic jerks, hand tremors, and fasciculations. I don't know if I was injured by the vaccine, had comorbidities that worsened my health issues taking the vaccine, or if timing was just a coincidence with medical issues just getting worse. In any case, I can't risk taking a booster, and I'm not sure it would even work or for how long until it stops working. With my breathing issues, I can't wear a surgical mask longer than 15 minutes walking around before I'm about to pass out. I can't wear an N95 longer than 5 minutes. If I lift more than 30 pounds with a mask on, I immediately have to take it off and catch my breath for five minutes. My only option has been a face shield, which isn't acceptable for doctor visits. They keep trying to get me to do my doctor visits over the phone, but phone service stinks at my house and all blocked numbers go straight to voicemail. Tried to get a doctor's note from my primary for a medical exemption, and she said ask the neurologist. That appointment got pushed back because he was sick. California issued a statewide mask mandate whether or not you're vaccinated. Shopping as infrequent as possible is an absolute necessity for me.


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## bykfixer (Jan 3, 2022)

Back in 020 when things were in panic mode I did stock up, but a little at a time so that others could have some too. If there were 10 cans of tuna left I didn't buy all 10. Instead of my usual 2 I'd buy 4. Before long I had 20. Same with spagetti noodles, chicken, etc. 
At one point I did buy 96 rolls of toilet paper but that was so I could set out 12 packs on elderly neighbors front porches after it got dark. 

I had bought a half a cow before the prices went sky high and gave most of that to friends, family and neighbors. Aint no need to panic. God ensures the sparrow doesn't starve and Heaven knows He aint let my fatarse miss a meal either. Is it always exactly what I want? Nope, but I grew up knowing you can't always get what you want, when you want it. But I haven't had to resort to eating bugs yet.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 3, 2022)

wjv said:


> I have 111 #10 cans of Augason Farms freeze dried food with 25 year shelf lifes. Another 173 two serving pouches of Mountain House and Alpine Aire freezed dried meals. Then 5 gallon buckets of rice, sugar, flour, oats, pasta and beans. Plus a lot of canned goods. . . Especially canned meats.


When I was working as an electrical apprentice, I made good money. I stocked up on boxes of Mountain House freeze dried food from Costco. I thought I would be prepared for anything. Then I found out I had celiac disease and couldn't eat a single meal I bought. They say when life gives you lemons, make lemonade. They don't tell you what to do if you're allergic to those lemons.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 3, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Unfortunately for me, I have breathing problems wearing a mask. That's why I got fully vaccinated, so I didn't have to wear one. Three weeks after I got my second shot, I had an irregular heartbeat, myoclonic jerks, hand tremors, and fasciculations. I don't know if I was injured by the vaccine, had comorbidities that worsened my health issues taking the vaccine, or if timing was just a coincidence with medical issues just getting worse. In any case, I can't risk taking a booster, and I'm not sure it would even work or for how long until it stops working. With my breathing issues, I can't wear a surgical mask longer than 15 minutes walking around before I'm about to pass out. I can't wear an N95 longer than 5 minutes. If I lift more than 30 pounds with a mask on, I immediately have to take it off and catch my breath for five minutes. My only option has been a face shield, which isn't acceptable for doctor visits. They keep trying to get me to do my doctor visits over the phone, but phone service stinks at my house and all blocked numbers go straight to voicemail. Tried to get a doctor's note from my primary for a medical exemption, and she said ask the neurologist. That appointment got pushed back because he was sick. California issued a statewide mask mandate whether or not you're vaccinated. Shopping as infrequent as possible is an absolute necessity for me.


Have you tried a respirator like this? I bought one not long after the pandemic started. Haven't worn it to the store yet, but it's useful when doing stuff around the house where I might inhale chemicals. Much easier to breathe than with any kind of mask, plus it offers better protection.

I don't much like masks myself, especially in the summers, but it's better than getting covid.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 3, 2022)

Thanks, but no thanks. $100 is a bit pricy. It‘s cheaper to limit contact and shop less frequently, less gas money spent. Still don’t know what is causing my breathing problem. I do fine hiking without a mask, but run short of breath talking while hiking. It’s like I have to take in two breaths instead of one to speak, sing, cough, breathe with a mask on, etc. Hope they can figure out what’s causing it and do something about it. I also hope these mask and vaccine mandates end soon before the government kills me trying to save me.


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## idleprocess (Jan 3, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Have you tried a respirator like this?


Or one of the 3M half-face respirators now that P100 filters are available again. I prefer the drop-down variety myself such as the 6502QL (or similar 6503QL). Far easier to breathe through than a standard N95 mask.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 3, 2022)

Any restriction in breathing puts me on borrowed time before having to take it off or pass out. So far, stores haven’t complained with me using a face shield. It’s the best I can do. Doctor’s offices require surgical masks or N95 masks. I wait in the car for them to call me in when possible and try to get through it quickly. Not going to waste the little money I have on a respirator. If it gets that bad, I’ll be on lockdown at home.


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## aznsx (Jan 3, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> As for masks, since delta it would have been prudent to wear either N95 masks or respirators. Surgical masks are OK if you go when the store isn't crowded, like I do. Cloth masks are hit or miss. Some are OK, many are useless and more a fashion statement. Anyway, with omicron hitting it's an N95 mask for me until it abates.



NIOSH N95 is all I've used for 18 months, and the only thing I would ever use. The U.S. government (CDC) badly misled the public regarding this, and did so quite intentionally using the justification of protecting the supply for front-line / healthcare workers. They only fully admitted to this in the past two weeks when they began strongly recommending "KN95". I have no doubt that many have suffered due to that misleading initial recommendation. Fortunately I had some background knowledge up front and knew better. NIOSH N95s are highly effective (if properly fitted [fit tested] when used, of course). Be aware that although the more widely available KN95 _*should*_ be as effective in terms of filtration, that standard allows higher pressure differential (more restrictive / more resistance to air flow), and thus are more difficult to use, and this is a particular issue for those with compromised breathing. If you have such issues, definitely stick to NIOSH N95.

I too have and have long used a half-face cartridge respirator (3M 6000 series) w/ NIOSH P100 + 'organic vapor' rating, and can't even smell the harshest household chemical / cleaning products. [EDIT: To be exact, it's actually the '3M 60923 P100 organic vapor / acid gas' type.] N / P100 is also the 'gold standard' for particulates (including viruses), but are generally off limits for virus protection in the current environment due to the fact that they always (or nearly so) incorporate an exhale valve, which is forbidden in many environments. Don't even try to get on a plane wearing one.

Most so-called 'cloth masks' (as recommended by our government) are largely ineffective. So-called 'surgical masks' are only marginally better, but very ineffective compared with N95. NIOSH N95 is *THE* way to go in this virus environment, with KN95 being usable if that's all you can find, but again beware if you have breathing issues. Supplier links are frowned upon here, but If anyone here is having difficulty finding NIOSH N95s, let me know and I'll post one anyway. My trusted supplier still has stock on several types (as of now).


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## idleprocess (Jan 3, 2022)

aznsx said:


> NIOSH N95 is all I've used for 18 months, and the only thing I would ever use. The U.S. government (CDC) badly misled the public regarding this, and did so quite intentionally using the justification of protecting the supply for front-line / healthcare workers. They only fully admitted to this in the past two weeks when they began strongly recommending "KN95". I have no doubt that many have suffered due to that misleading initial recommendation. Fortunately I had some background knowledge up front and knew better. NIOSH N95s are highly effective (if properly fitted [fit tested] when used, of course). Be aware that although the more widely available KN95 _*should*_ be as effective in terms of filtration, that standard allows higher pressure differential (more restrictive / more resistance to air flow), and thus are more difficult to use, and this is a particular issue for those with compromised breathing. If you have such issues, definitely stick to NIOSH N95.


Going on two years ago, *actual *KN95's were better than the cloth/surgical masks and neck gaiters that were popular - the media _specification_ is substantially similar to N95 and the fitment at least pulled the media against the face. The trouble of course was finding a reputable supplier - the 'zon was full of knockoffs that clearly didn't make the filtration spec and even managed to cockup the semistandard 2-part welded construction.

As at least 6 months ago, N95s again became plentiful thus the argument for KN95 greatly weakened. The construction of most 3D N95s is superior to the 2D folding KN95 and the around-the-head straps provide for a superior seal against the face.

I'm still lousy with KN95s so I'm still using them as replacement filter media for some knockoff RZ masks I obtained early on. I then place a surgical mask over the exhaust valves primarily for the benefit of those around me. My exposure is hardly occupational so I'm OK with the middling performance relative to actual N95s and unlike every other option I've tried, the arrangement doesn't fog my glasses _like it was a primary design consideration_.



aznsx said:


> N / P100 is also the 'gold standard' for particulates (including viruses), but are generally off limits for virus protection in the current environment due to the fact that they always (or nearly so) incorporate an exhale valve, which is forbidden in many environments. Don't even try to get on a plane wearing one.


For _casual_ usage I'll slip a surgical mask over my P100 setup's exhaust valve; I only expect to do this if I'm at a place like the local makerspace where I might need to wear a mask continuously for hours, it also works as PPE in the various shops, and can't take it off at all and thus want the ease of breathing without adjustment of the mask.



aznsx said:


> Most so-called 'cloth masks' (as recommended by our government) are largely ineffective. So-called 'surgical masks' are only marginally better, but very ineffective compared with N95.


The whole improvised PPE push ~Q1 2020 was about reducing overall numbers in terms of cases while the purpose of discouraging mass usage of N95 _et al_ was about protecting the supply chain for healthcare. I remember that just about _to the day_ that the first guidance on face masks was given, N95s vanished from the shelves of local big box stores - both the likes of megalomart and the orange despot.

From a public health perspective any meaningful reduction is a worthwhile avenue, but from an individual perspective crap methods that do little to protect _you_ are a tough sell. I do wonder if the push for cloth masks - with the filter pocket that almost no one used and didn't really matter since fitment was more for comfort than perimeter seal - was a clever bit of social engineering knowing that customization was likely which would see more usage than the likes of more-effective KN95/FFP2/KF94/* masks and would thus bump macro numbers more.


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## Poppy (Jan 4, 2022)

I understand the issue with those who have breathing issues, and the additional stress that comes with wearing an effective mask, whether it be a N95, or half face respirator. 

I have seen some people wear a half face respirator, that had a battery powered fan worn on their hip, or around their waist, that supplies filtered air into the mask. It would make breathing much easier, like using a cpap machine.


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## turbodog (Jan 4, 2022)

wjv said:


> Been buying extra for a while now. I have 12 lbs of ground beef and 20lb+ of checken breast. 6 lbs of cheeses, 10 lbs of butter and other similar basic foods. All stored in a couple freezers.
> 
> Here in SW WA State we haven't seen many shortages. Gas is still $3.40 if you shop around. Occasionaly the paper products section at costco or wally world are low.
> 
> ...



Found the cause of the supply shortage...


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## aznsx (Jan 4, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I have seen some people wear a half face respirator, that had a battery powered fan worn on their hip, or around their waist, that supplies filtered air into the mask. It would make breathing much easier, like using a cpap machine.


Yeah, they're a type of 'supplied air system' called a PAPR (portable air purifying respirator). I've seen them used in industrial and medical environments, and while they were available at the industrial plant where I most recently worked, I've never used one. They are generally 4-digit cost items. I can just imagine wearing one into a public space. Someone would probably call the cops


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## scout24 (Jan 4, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Found the cause of the supply shortage...


Uncalled for...


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Jan 4, 2022)

scout24 said:


> Uncalled for...


I took the post as humor, not a slight.


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## idleprocess (Jan 4, 2022)

aznsx said:


> Yeah, they're a type of 'supplied air system' called a PAPR (portable air purifying respirator). I've seen them used in industrial and medical environments, and while they were available at the industrial plant where I most recently worked, I've never used one. They are generally 4-digit cost items. I can just imagine wearing one into a public space. Someone would probably call the cops


There were some _crowdfunded_ variants on the concept about a year ago at about peak hysteria over PPE. No idea whether or not they saw the light of day since I wasn't too excited about _wearing a lithium-ion battery on my face_ nor their nu-wunder filtration concepts that they couldn't be arsed to certify to any real standards ... at least they all looked to seal up against the face reasonably well like a $20 3M half-face respirator.


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## aznsx (Jan 4, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> I took the post as humor, not a slight.


+1 on trying to maintain at least a modicum of humor during these difficult times, as it too is often in very short 'supply', but is an important resource; that without being unkind, of course.


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## scout24 (Jan 4, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> I took the post as humor, not a slight.


This has been a fairly serious thread, and if it was meant in jest the :sarcasm: font or smilie should have been used.. (oh wait.. )😉 If it was in jest, carry on.


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## turbodog (Jan 5, 2022)

If I were serious, there would be more talk about cascading knock on effects to stock levels. I'm not seeing an issue w/ someone stocking up on rare food items.

If you excuse me, I need to go buy more pickled pig feet. They are a hot commodity in the South.


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## KITROBASKIN (Jan 5, 2022)

turbodog said:


> ...go buy more pickled pig feet. They are a hot commodity in the South.


Chicharrón (pig skin, sometimes with more fat/maybe a little meat than cracklings) is hot in New Mexico, but not sure how supply is doing these days.

Hoping that folks will take some extra products, over weeks to build up supplies, as opposed to mass purchase. Not liking the idea of charging more when buying more. I would avoid a place that attempts that.


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## knucklegary (Jan 5, 2022)

My grandfather always kept a huge jar of pigs feet for his customers at the wrecking yard.. I used them for fishing bait. Crabs luv the stuff!

How come no mentioning about inflation, tired of listening to only pandemic on mainstream..

We just returned from grocery shopping. Paid 20% more for dry goods, and that's when can find it on the shelf.. Dang! my once ten buck bag of prunes is now costing me $2 more. Maybe I should eat some pigs feet it'll probably have same effect?


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## dc38 (Jan 5, 2022)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Not liking the idea of charging more when buying more. I would avoid a place that attempts that.



That would be the place everyone would have to visit after all the lower priced stores run out. Barring trade laws and whatnot, it's the most basic form of capitalism there is, supply demand, except during times of shortage and potential crisis, it functions as rationing. After everyone sells out, the stores are SOL as well. So for the time being, it makes sense to increase unit price per volume purchased. It's inflative for sure, but after the shortage is over, prices would drop back to normal.


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## Poppy (Jan 5, 2022)

The last two times I went to COSTCO, the parking lot was so full, that I decided not to go in.
Today, I tried again, primarily to get bottled water.

Compared to the last time I was in the store (about three weeks ago) there was now, no evidence of any supply shortage. It looked like everything was stocked. They must have gotten at least one trailer full of each... bottled water, toilet paper, and paper towels.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Jan 5, 2022)

Poppy said:


> The last two times I went to COSTCO, the parking lot was so full, that I decided not to go in.
> Today, I tried again, primarily to get bottled water.
> 
> Compared to the last time I was in the store (about three weeks ago) there was now, no evidence of any supply shortage. It looked like everything was stocked. They must have gotten at least one trailer full of each... bottled water, toilet paper, and paper towels.


So, it's safe to say you're good to go.


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## Poppy (Jan 5, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> So, it's safe to say you're good to go.


LOL... yeah, I'm good to go! 

Last year, TP was a really hot commodity. 

I met my son, at one of his friends house on the lake. I pulled my kayak off of the roof of my car, and threw it in. After a few beers, I asked to use the rest room of her house. She was a gracious host!

I offered her a 4 pack of TP. Wow!!! That was rated better than a case of beer! Beer was obtainable, TP, well... no.

With that little gift, I'd be welcome any time.


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## bykfixer (Jan 6, 2022)

Thermometers are available, and I mean by the basket full. My local CVS had them hanging in several places the other day. Whatever year that virus hit…it's all a blur anymore…nobody had them. Not even at Amazon.


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## scout24 (Jan 6, 2022)

Thermometers being available again is good news! I was actually able to pick up a fingertip pulse oximeter locally for $20.00 to measure oxygen saturation in the blood. Since lack thereof is a serious symptom of the virus, I figured it was 20 bucks well spent. Daughter is a nurse at our local hospital and has worked the covid unit quite a bit, she says EVERYONE who comes in has low pulse ox numbers and gets put on O2 in fairly high amounts.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 6, 2022)

Yes, a pulse oximeter is a cheap and good investment. I've been checking mine throughout the pandemic.


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## aznsx (Jan 6, 2022)

scout24 said:


> Thermometers being available again is good news! I was actually able to pick up a fingertip pulse oximeter locally for $20.00 to measure oxygen saturation in the blood. Since lack thereof is a serious symptom of the virus, I figured it was 20 bucks well spent. Daughter is a nurse at our local hospital and has worked the covid unit quite a bit, she says EVERYONE who comes in has low pulse ox numbers and gets put on O2 in fairly high amounts.



Learn something around CPF every day, and clearly I could stand to learn a few things! Of course at my age I likely forget something every day too, so this place helps me keep it even (just about)


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 6, 2022)

Went shopping today. Went to Lowe’s to look around. They announced an apology over the speakers that they were sorry they didn’t have much in stock. Went to Walmart. The isles were pretty far apart. Went to Costco. 12 packs of Mashed Potatoes were gone. 5 lb. packs of grass fed hamburger patties shot up from $18.49 to $23.49. Bacon was around $16 for 3 lbs. raw or 1 lb. cooked. Chicken didn’t seem to go up much. Neither did cheese. Almond milk is close to $10 for the 3 pack. Was under $8. Packs of brats haven’t been seen in months. Most of the packs of corn tortillas had an expiration date of today. That was the first Costco I had seen in a while that even had corn tortillas in stock. Seems like items with short expiration dates might not be making it to stores in time. I doubt things are going to get any better with how bad the new coronavirus variant is spreading as well as flurona. Just hope we don’t go back to mandatory lockdowns again. California just extended the mandatory mask mandate to February 15.


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## bykfixer (Jan 6, 2022)

Got a text from my son "dad, got any Benedryl?" 
I thought "uh oh" because my son runs a drug store. A minute later "I know, I know I work at a drug store but the cold/flu/allergy medicines are all gone." So an hour later I was hooking him up with some from my stockpile. I had noticed at my local grocery store it looked like a run on that stuff was taking place so we went by a CVS that day, who still had some of that stuff.


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## scout24 (Jan 6, 2022)

H.O.F.- I think all your brats are here in Pennsylvania. Steady supply since day 1, lol...


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## KITROBASKIN (Jan 6, 2022)

Consider testing the pulse oximeter with another trusted device, maybe trying it only while lying down or sitting instead of standing. Test if the reading changes from initial reading and maybe 10 seconds later. Mine does. Which reading should one trust?


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 6, 2022)

scout24 said:


> H.O.F.- I think all your brats are here in Pennsylvania. Steady supply since day 1, lol...


I meant Costco had a shortage of bratwurst. I think most places have an overabundance of brats, just not the kind I can get away with cooking over an open flame.


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## Poppy (Jan 7, 2022)

All over the local news is that we are getting 4-6 inches of snow. It started about 3:00 AM this morning, and will continue falling until about 9:00 AM. Of course this is during rush hour, and we have been warned of its impending fall for the last couple of days.

Last night I went to the local Stop and shop, and noted that the pre-bagged salads were still off the shelves. There was a lysteria problem and they were all pulled. I'm a little surprised that it is taking so long for them to be replaced. I noted that there were holes in the fresh fruit and vegetables section. I don't recall ever seeing that. The holes may have been caused, because they were on sale.

There were also some holes in the meat section, not necessarily due to a sale. Also some frozen foods were kinda thin.

One isle was filled with cases and cases of water. That was strange. Usually there is a variety of things in that isle. It was as though they were hiding the fact that their stock was low. OTOH maybe they were bragging that they had water, which has been in low supply recently.

There may be a few things that caused the bare spots.

1. a competing supermarket opened last month, about 1/4 mile away, (they closed a store that was about a mile away). It is much larger, and typically the prices are a little lower. 
2. there is/was an impending storm, which leads people to stock up.
3. I noted that some empty spaces, were items that were on sale. Maybe inflation, has caused people to be more cognizant of prices.
4. maybe it is a supply chain issue.


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## bykfixer (Jan 7, 2022)

I think one thing folks have probably forgotten since Americans don't seem to recall history past last Thursday is that anytime there was a significant frozen precipitation forecast the grocery stores were raided for bread and milk. Here in post Y2k it seems milk and bread are now Red Baron frozen pizzas and Stove Top stuffing etc so the empty spots on shelves aren't where they were back in 1999. Kinda like 50 is the new 30 thing. 
And a run on cold/flu meds in January is likely the norm as well. 

I think many of the veggies like salad comes from Brazil these days so if they have issues like really high sickness or some bad weather it stands to reason we don't see strawberries at the big chain stores for a time. 

Now in my line of work we are struggling with shortages of materials like pipe, concrete, steel rebar and most surprising is heavy equpment like bulldozers and back hoes. Pollution regs is putting many old equipment out to pasture and huge demand is causing material shortages. Lots and lots of pivoting from Plan A to Plan B……to Plan Q are taking place in order to keep production going. And that won't change anytime soon.


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## scout24 (Jan 7, 2022)

Lol, bread milk and eggs. It snows, and everyone must be making french toast...


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## hsa (Jan 7, 2022)

I always wondered about that, now I know. Haha.


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## idleprocess (Jan 7, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Now in my line of work we are struggling with shortages of materials like pipe, concrete, steel rebar and most surprising is heavy equpment like bulldozers and back hoes. Pollution regs is putting many old equipment out to pasture and huge demand is causing material shortages. Lots and lots of pivoting from Plan A to Plan B……to Plan Q are taking place in order to keep production going. And that won't change anytime soon.


In my line of work we buy containers at a time of the likes of modems, routers, optical terminals, fiber drop lines that are suffering random delays thanks to the problems with production and transportation. Safety stocks have been cut to the bone more than once.

But the real pain point is development hardware - be it prototypes or first article revisions. Milestones have been missed because we just can't get these for validation. With _stock item_ electronics / chip production being as tight as it is for going on 2 years now, gaps in the schedule to produce labor-intensive _development_ hardware by and large don't exist.


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## knucklegary (Jan 7, 2022)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Consider testing the pulse oximeter with another trusted device, maybe trying it only while lying down or sitting instead of standing. Test if the reading changes from initial reading and maybe 10 seconds later. Mine does. Which reading should one trust?


I bought a Zacurate off Amz, I use for sports. One day took it to Dr visit for comparison. Nurse went with my devices figures (98) since the office unit, possibly had a low battery, showed my oxy saturation 78. Nurse asked me if I felt dizzy. I said only when I visit the doctor office

Moral of story; don't trust any electronic device.. and if it doesn't hurt don't fix it


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## turbodog (Jan 7, 2022)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Consider testing the pulse oximeter with another trusted device, maybe trying it only while lying down or sitting instead of standing. Test if the reading changes from initial reading and maybe 10 seconds later. Mine does. Which reading should one trust?



FYI,

Oximeters are typically sensitive to light. They should be used in subdued light.


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## knucklegary (Jan 7, 2022)

Good to know.. Next time I'm with cute nurse I'll ask her to dim the lights! 🤗


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 7, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> Good to know.. Next time I'm with cute nurse I'll ask her to dim the lights! 🤗


The lens can also get dirty which can impair the reading.


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## bykfixer (Jan 7, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> Good to know.. Next time I'm with cute nurse I'll ask her to dim the lights! 🤗


That will also ensure that chrome-dome of yours doesn't blind her


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 7, 2022)

I thought that the run on Covid test kits would've eased up after the holidays. Silly me.


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## Poppy (Jan 7, 2022)

I suppose that 7-10 days after the holidays, the demand for testing will drop off, because by then most who became infected will look to get tested.

Orange County in NY are handing them out 4 at a time.
Last week I bought two at one pharmacy in town, and this week another two at a different pharmacy. There were more available, but I didn't need them.

I am sure that there has been a run on test kits due to the need to be tested to travel, or for some entertainment. Once that calms down, the supply will meet the demand.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 8, 2022)

There were 849,181 new cases of Coronavirus in the U.S. today. 2,025 deaths, and 21,945 critical or severe cases. Once we hit around 20,000 severe cases, hospitals tend to get overrun. A lack of tests is the least of our concerns. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I think we should prepare for another round of mandatory stay at home lockdowns to start to take place within the next week or two. Get enough groceries to get by for at least a month (nonperishable/ doesn’t need cooled). Even if the Supreme Court rules against the vaccine mandate and/or lockdowns aren’t forced on us again, you’re probably going to want to stay at home anyway to avoid getting sick, if possible. Masks and vaccines don’t seem to work with the Omicron variant and we’re approaching a million people getting sick each day in the U.S. At that rate and with non-vaccinated people already getting fired, we are going to have a labor shortage for running our critical infrastructure (water, power, internet, etc.), emergency services, as well as the supply chain disruptions we already have getting worse. Self quarantine has been lowered from 10 days to 5. This wasn’t because you’re safe after 5. It was because our country can’t afford to lose 10 million workers each 10 days and still function properly. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Plan accordingly and stay safe.


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## scout24 (Jan 8, 2022)

At the risk of going further off topic...If they're handing test kits out like halloween candy, and you can buy them at every drugstore, (sold out everywhere by me.) of course positive cases have spiked. Not for travel or entertainment, (hogwash) which you shouldn't be doing anyhow if it's so serious, but because the level of fear has been cranked up to 11 again. "Oh my God, what if I have it???" "Here's a home test!!!" In 99% of situations, if you have no symptoms you shouldn't be testing. Do you take a pregnancy test once a week "just in case?" Of course not. And who's to say home tests are beimg administered properly? So many asymptomatic or mild cases it makes one wonder. And when places like Illinois have gone DOWN in ICU bed count from 4000 to 3000 in the past 18 months, I'm left scratching my head. (Google it.) People get sick. For some, it's quite serious. For a few, (statistically) it's fatal. So are many, many other things. For the vast majority? Not so much. If you have a medical condition or are in a demographic group that makes you high risk, manage your own situation. This has gotten WAY out of hand and we keep buying into it.


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## bykfixer (Jan 8, 2022)

At one point much of the supply chain has been strained but mostly due to high demand. There was a point when factories shut down in China back in late 2019 when America was paying attention to all things besides this "novel" virus that had caused the Chinese gov't to lock down some cities.

Now I'm no fan of Glenn Beck but one day I in early 2020 heard him on a radio saying how things would play out in 2020 and beyond. And to be honest, he predicted correctly. He stated how those factories being shut down would have ripples in the global supply chain but that those ripples would be nothing compared to the following psuenami style ripples if the virus got out of China. He indicated that data was showing it already had reached other countries although America had not seen it yet.

He went on to predict large companies in America and elsewhere would "suddenly" (and conviently) realize they were hemoraging money in labor costs and use the impending disaster to cut staff. (At about the time my company started sending out emails on how revenue shortfalls meant adjustments were needed). And that many organizations would realize work from home means less office space needed, reducing that cost creating a glut of office space.

He predicted a huge glut in crude oil as millions of Americans will stay at home instead of commuting, and that would lead to spikes later as they resumed commuting. He predicted panic buying and hoarding as rumors of disease in factories meant products would suddenly be unavailable. He predicted that things would be in chaos while the stock market continued to reach record highs due to manipulations creating huge profits for some.

Now Glenn is big on doom and gloom so many said "eh, it's just that nut job at it again" yet 2020 went just as he predicted. But he also predicted this new virus would play out in time and variants would become weaker and weaker since most viruses do. It seems a virus is smart enough to replicate in a fashion that ensures its survival and once it no longer kills its host(s) it ensures continued success at replication, so omni-cron kinda shows that to be the case (so far).

And much like the Spanish flu, the novel corona has jumped from generation to generation. Where the Spanish flu began with the young and future strains hit older and older people, this one has done the inverse and now the young are being affected more than in 2020/21.

If things progress like they did in 1916 to 1920 we still have a year or so to go. But unlike back then where America was still fairly rural and large segments of the population never mingled, we are less likely to avoid contacting a sick person so perhaps this one will play out faster than the 4 years of the Spanish flu episode. But it also means we are more dependent on the supply chain and less on our own in terms of goods and foods. So the supply chain interuptions are noticed by more so panic purchasing is accelarated and therefore seems worse than it really is.

Like others mentioned, the just in time policies also play a role. With America being all about short term profit that may not get better anytime soon.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 8, 2022)

Here are some of the current results of the coronavirus in my area.
Business closures and reduced hours:


San Diego Fire Department issues emergency services brownout:


Hospitals are getting overwhelmed and tests are in short supply:


The National Guard has been activated to help with covid testing in California:


People are getting the omicron variant even if they are fully vaccinated and had a booster shot, though they may have a milder case:


With all of this going on, there is a shortage of staff to work at the hospital, ambulances to get you to the hospital, beds at the hospital, and covid test kits. They are recommending that if you have mild symptoms, stay home and don't bother testing. If you have breathing or other severe problems, go to the hospital. Standing in line with sick people for hours to get tested will make things worse. If you have to test for work, I suggest ordering the test and have it sent to your home if possible. Stores are closing or limiting hours due to staffing shortages from too many getting sick. If you think I was exaggerating about potential lockdowns, or emergency services shortages, look around. San Diego is already asking people to go back to working from home if at all possible. I hope this labor shortage doesn't affect our critical infrastructure but it could. With this variant able to affect people who are fully vaccinated and boosted, we can't get to herd immunity. We are stuck with this virus like the flu and the common cold.


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## Poppy (Jan 8, 2022)

I don't think we'll see "lock downs" again. Perhaps we'll see politicians asking employers to allow employees to work from home if possible. 

OTOH, the new mayor of New York City, is asking employers to bring employees who are working from home, back into the city, because the small mom and pop shops are suffering. There are too few people in town to buy their goods and services.

Unless there are additional stimulus checks, and extended unemployment payments, lock-downs will be political suicide. I don't see this happening. 

Hopefully the guestimates that we are about to peak, are correct, and hopefully it will drop off just as rapidly, as has been reported in South Africa.


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## bykfixer (Jan 8, 2022)

Mike Rowe just did an episode post on fakebook called "damn, does everybody you know have covid?" 
Thinking I may resupply with spagetti-o's and chef-boyardee raviolli soon.


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## knucklegary (Jan 8, 2022)

^ Just stocked up, and got plenty Ranch beans too!


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 8, 2022)

In some areas people are already being asked to work from home, if at all possible. I hope we don’t go back to mandatory lockdowns ever again. California lost 1/3 of all businesses from the last round. We definitely can’t afford to go another round. Even if they gave extended unemployment again, many people who were fired for not being vaccinated wouldn’t qualify which would make things even worse. Stores and restaurants are already closing shop or limiting hours because so many of their staff are sick. Essential services are having “brown outs” due to lack of staff. With all the snow storms, many places have been without power and/or water for several days (Lake Tahoe for example). With that, combined with short staffing from mandates requiring firing unvaccinated workers, it’s taking too long to get power back to people following these storms. I hope this all blows over in a few weeks, but I’m not counting on it. We’re in a S##tstorm without an umbrella. It’s going to take awhile to clean up the mess.


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## turbodog (Jan 8, 2022)

scout24 said:


> At the risk of going further off topic...... For the vast majority? Not so much. If you have a medical condition or are in a demographic group that makes you high risk, manage your own situation....



Hard to do that when there's no medical capacity left. Jackson, MS hospitals are in code red currently. Not accepting patients, ambulances, transfers, etc of any kind for any reason.

Hope nobody has a medical emergency.

And lockdown? Don't see that happening. 

Grocery store was well stocked today. No sun chips though.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 8, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> ^ Just stocked up, and got plenty Ranch beans too!


Don’t forget the t.p. and air freshener.


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## KITROBASKIN (Jan 8, 2022)

Hopefully folks will roll with it instead of getting all knee jerky hoarding, knowing that some patience is necessary with some items. Stuff to buy here where we live is not bad.

USA is not going the lockdown route. The people making the decisions have more knowledge and experience compared to the viral unknowns of the past. We have multiple strategies for treatment. Government did the things they did so we would not go full blown crushed economy and social norms, killing each other for ketchup packets. Now it seems government will try to keep people working to avoid a crushed economy and social norms. (How I see it)


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## KITROBASKIN (Jan 8, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Hard to do that when there's no medical capacity left. Jackson, MS hospitals are in code red currently. Not accepting patients, ambulances, transfers, etc of any kind for any reason.


Before things get tight, how about letting individual hospitals be able to decide whether they have to COVID treat the unvaccinated or not.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 8, 2022)

scout24 said:


> So many asymptomatic or mild cases it makes one wonder. And when places like Illinois have gone DOWN in ICU bed count from 4000 to 3000 in the past 18 months, I'm left scratching my head. (Google it.) People get sick. For some, it's quite serious. For a few, (statistically) it's fatal. So are many, many other things. For the vast majority? Not so much. If you have a medical condition or are in a demographic group that makes you high risk, manage your own situation. This has gotten WAY out of hand and we keep buying into it.


Is this what you're talking about? https://www.thecentersquare.com/ill...cle_bbef7406-3ccd-11ec-87b8-47e41e059dc1.html

Yes, they went from around 4,000 ICU beds to around 3,000. This was not because they didn't need more. ICU stands for intensive care unit. It used to require a 1:1 ratio of nurses to patients. This was revised to 1:2 due to covid. This means that due to the vaccine mandate that required firing unvaccinated workers and people getting sick, quitting, or dying, they went from a staff of around 4,000 nurses to around 1,500. That is part of the problem. It doesn't mean things are getting better because they have fewer beds.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 8, 2022)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Before things get tight, how about letting individual hospitals be able to decide whether they have to COVID treat the unvaccinated or not. Hey, or maybe let the supply/demand metric-dynamic apply to those who won't vaccinate; charging twice/three times as much to those 'vax-refusing' for ideological reasons?


The new variant affects the vaccinated and boosted, and younger people. What excuse do they have to unfairly prey on the sick and dying by overcharging those that didn't get vaccinated? New York is going a horrible route by denying treatments to white people over minorities. Do you think that is fair too? The Hyppocratic oath starts with "First, do no harm." If you deny people lifesaving medical services based on race or vaccination status, you've broken your oath as a doctor. Each patient should be treated with dignity and respect no matter who they are, not prejudged at the door, then robbed blind.


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## knucklegary (Jan 8, 2022)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Hopefully folks will roll with it instead of getting all knee jerky hoarding, knowing that some patience is necessary with some items. Stuff to buy here where we live is not bad.
> 
> USA is not going the lockdown route. The people making the decisions have more knowledge and experience compared to the viral unknowns of the past. We have multiple strategies for treatment. Government did the things they did so we would not go full blown crushed economy and social norms, killing each other for ketchup packets. Now it seems government will try to keep people working to avoid a crushed economy and social norms. (How I see it)


How is the govt going to keep people working if they continue to subsidize employment?


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## Poppy (Jan 8, 2022)

Gentlemen:
I am the original poster of this thread.

Please let's stay on topic.
If you want to start another thread that is full of extremisms --- one that is sure to get shut down, please do so. 

Thanks

Poppy


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## aznsx (Jan 8, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Masks and vaccines don’t seem to work with the Omicron variant


Politics, etc. aside HOF, I have _*serious*_ doubts that a quality, properly-fitted NIOSH N95 'mask' is ineffective against this, or any other airborne virus. I'm not an expert, but I'd say quite the contrary. Now, how many people are actually using those types and in the correct manner? Perhaps very few. That's another issue.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 8, 2022)

aznsx said:


> Politics, etc. aside HOF, I have _*serious*_ doubts that a quality, properly-fitted NIOSH N95 'mask' is ineffective against this, or any other airborne virus. I'm not an expert, but I'd say quite the contrary. Now, how many people are actually using those types and in the correct manner? Perhaps very few. That's another issue.


It does need to have that NIOSH stamp on it. There are plenty of x95 masks that don't.


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## aznsx (Jan 8, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> It does need to have that NIOSH stamp on it. There are plenty of x95 masks that don't.



True, and I'm aware of that, but in this case my specificity was quite intentional.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 8, 2022)

aznsx said:


> True, and I'm aware of that, but in this case my specificity was quite intentional.


Point well taken here. A properly fitting N95 is far better than the surgical masks.


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## bykfixer (Jan 8, 2022)

The Mrs and I went out for dinner and in the midst of a new case every 3.0 seconds places were PACKED to the rafters with customers. Lines waiting to get in was the norm. Thing we noticed was masked people were in a huge majority without being told to. Most seem to wear them to help slow the spread, not prevent themselves from receiving it.

We ended up opting to find a drive through and eat at home. Then off to the grocery store to grab some stuff before the Sunday shoppers grab it. Surprisingly that paid off as many items missing on Sunday morning last week were in stock this evening.


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## aznsx (Jan 8, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Thing we noticed was masked people were in a huge majority without being told to.



A month or so back, I noticed they's become much more scarce. Many (falsely) thought the disease was on the decline, and when not required to wear them, they were ditched by many. That was likely a contributing factor to our being where we find ourselves today.

Edit: In restaurants eating/drinking, and especially crowded ones, I'm not sure anything will help


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## bykfixer (Jan 8, 2022)

I've said it before and I'll say it again: 
"the human race does a helluva good job at spreading disease and that's not going to change with this one". We always have, we always will.


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## Poppy (Jan 8, 2022)

I am happy to see that the Health Commissioner for NYC is now recommending the use of N95 masks, instead of any old cloth mask. That is an indication that the supply of the better masks is getting better.
Last week I picked up a 20 pack of N95 masks at the Home Depot. There were perhaps 20 packs of them. Yesterday, my daughter wanted to get more for herself, and her two boys. There were none at a different HD, where they were supposed to be, ( the app said they were in stock) but she looked high up, and saw a case of them. She had to get an employee to get a ladder to get some for her. He didn't restock the shelf, but left the case way up high.

Her impression was it was being saved for those in the know. Employees, and their families.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 8, 2022)

aznsx said:


> Politics, etc. aside HOF, I have _*serious*_ doubts that a quality, properly-fitted NIOSH N95 'mask' is ineffective against this, or any other airborne virus. I'm not an expert, but I'd say quite the contrary. Now, how many people are actually using those types and in the correct manner? Perhaps very few. That's another issue.


Why don’t you quote a whole sentence instead of taking my words out of context? We had around 850,000 new cases yesterday in the U.S. We are approaching a million a day. We have confirmed cases of people that aren’t elderly that had both vaccine shots plus a booster testing positive for the Omicron variant. I left a video of one in a previous post. As for the masks, tell me how effective an N95 mask is in a restaurant once you sit down at the table and everyone takes it off their faces. It does little to nothing in that setting because you aren’t wearing it most of the time. Now I’m sure a properly fitted N95 mask reduces your chances of getting sick, but with nearly a million cases a day, it appears our current safety measures are insufficient.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 8, 2022)

For those of you in California, you need to see this video before going to see your doctor or before going to a hospital. California temporarily changed their quarantine guidelines. Instead of 5 or 10 days in quarantine after testing positive for Covid, if they are asymptomatic, nurses and medical professionals are supposed to return to work immediately and just wear an N95 mask. No more quarantine period. Be careful at your next visit. You could get sick from your doctor or nurse. I guess we'll find out how good N95 masks really are. This is an act of desperation due to a severe lack of staffing.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 9, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> In some areas people are already being asked to work from home, if at all possible. I hope we don’t go back to mandatory lockdowns ever again. California lost 1/3 of all businesses from the last round. We definitely can’t afford to go another round.


Actually, we should have taken a cue from China, New Zealand, and Australia and went this route from day one. However, instead of blanket lockdowns, the key is far less disruptive targeted lockdowns only in places where testing reveals community transmission. Of course, for this to work, you need to have the numbers low enough so you can detect where there is community transmission. That may have required one or two blanket lockdowns of a few months when this first started. But after that we could have reopened faster, knowing that targeted lockdowns would quickly extinguish any covid "brush fires" before they became full-blown infernoes. The death rates of these countries compared to the US show the value of such policies.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 9, 2022)

aznsx said:


> A month or so back, I noticed they's become much more scarce. Many (falsely) thought the disease was on the decline, and when not required to wear them, they were ditched by many. That was likely a contributing factor to our being where we find ourselves today.
> 
> Edit: In restaurants eating/drinking, and especially crowded ones, I'm not sure anything will help


Same in NYC and we've generally been great about mask wearing until recently.

I don't know why we didn't have restaurants go back to delivery only when delta hit. And I'm scratching my head at Mayor Adams saying people should get back to their offices in Manhattan. Even if the pandemic were over, remote work is better for most workers and very popular. Anyone who can do their job effectively at home should, especially in this era where climate change is a concern.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 9, 2022)

Can someone tell me why we are allowing known COVID positive vaccinated nurses to work while firing healthy non vaccinated nurses in California? Seems completely backwards to me. I’d rather have the nurse that doesn’t make me sick. If anything, they should take an all hands on deck approach and hire back any healthcare worker they can find to get through this year’s surge. We’re going to need them.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 9, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Can someone tell me why we are allowing known COVID positive vaccinated nurses to work while firing healthy non vaccinated nurses in California? Seems completely backwards to me. I’d rather have the nurse that doesn’t make me sick. If anything, they should take an all hands on deck approach and hire back any healthcare worker they can find to get through this year’s surge. We’re going to need them.


I'll give you one reason right off, namely that the presence of unvaccinated staff would cause vaccinated staff to quit, probably in large numbers. If I had a job I couldn't do at home, and the company didn't have a mandatory vaccine policy, at least for those who work on site, I'd be gone in a heartbeat. Same thing if they didn't require masks, have plexiglas dividers, or take other precautions. No job is worth dying for. The presence of unvaccinated staff increases the risk for everyone, even if the vaccines aren't 100% effective.

Employers are doing a balancing act and making judgement calls. Maybe having a mandatory vaccine policy results in 5% being terminated, but without that policy perhaps 10% will quit.

I don't understand why they're allowing infected nurses to work, either. That flies in the face of everything other safety precaution. It's another thing will may well drive some staff to quit for their own safety. Any way you look at it, hospitals are going to be short staffed until the peak is past.


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## scout24 (Jan 9, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I am happy to see that the Health Commissioner for NYC is now recommending the use of N95 masks, instead of any old cloth mask. That is an indication that the supply of the better masks is getting better.
> Last week I picked up a 20 pack of N95 masks at the Home Depot. There were perhaps 20 packs of them. Yesterday, my daughter wanted to get more for herself, and her two boys. There were none at a different HD, where they were supposed to be, ( the app said they were in stock) but she looked high up, and saw a case of them. She had to get an employee to get a ladder to get some for her. He didn't restock the shelf, but left the case way up high.
> 
> Her impression was it was being saved for those in the know. Employees, and their families.


Glad ahe found some, Poppy. Just as likely a reason for no re-stock, shoplifting. I needed some Romex for a project two weeks ago, and same situation. None on the shelf, but a bunch up high. Employee went up the ladder, handed me one roll, and I put it down and held my hands up for another figuring I would save her multiple trips up and down. She smiled, said thanks, and said anything they put down on the shelf would walk right out the front door. High demand I guess...


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## bykfixer (Jan 9, 2022)

So I guess this is the new covid-19 thread?


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## Poppy (Jan 9, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> So I guess this is the new covid-19 thread?


No it is NOT. 
If it gets too out of hand, I'll insist that Mr Ed delete disruptive posts.

Like I said before, I'd like this thread to stay pretty much on topic.

Thanks for giving me the opportunity to make this point once again.


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## scout24 (Jan 9, 2022)

Seems that most of the posters have been back and forth with some covid related content and supply chain related content. As always, staff has the options of trying to gently steer things back on topic if we veer way off for half a page or so, or deleting content if it gets out of hand. As this is the Cafe, there has always been more leeway as to topic drift vs. the general Forum. Given that the tenor of CPF seems to have changed in recent history, this seems to have been a well behaved thread given the subject matter and off topic drift. If you'd like Mr. Ed to stop by, perhaps send him a PM and he'll either clarify or take action he sees fit. 😊


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## bykfixer (Jan 9, 2022)

Poppy said:


> No it is NOT.
> If it gets too out of hand, I'll insist that Mr Ed delete disruptive posts.
> 
> Like I said before, I'd like this thread to stay pretty much on topic.
> ...


So perhaps this thread below will help? 






Omicron-where things stand lately


Ok, so let's try this again. To start out: opinions are welcome. Politics, religion, personal attacks are not. We're all adults and understand what those are. Ok? Here we go. How about a little humor to kick this one off?




www.candlepowerforums.com




^^ a place to discuss the virus and all of its details.

I had accidently started it in the intro section. Thanks to Mr Ed and his new format that was easily taken care of.


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## bykfixer (Jan 9, 2022)

At the grocery store if you wanted spagetti noodles you had 2 choices, whole wheat or those Ramens.

Now yesterday evening they did not have my brand of turkey sausage links (again) but had plenty this morning. They did not have Pert Plus (again) but did this morning.

Thinking ahead, I found one bottle of store brand 'coughing, stuffy head, fever, so you ca rest' medicine. They had two but I did not want to be "that guy", so Mrs Fixer walks up with 2 bottles of Pert Plus and says "last 2, I guess I'm that guy" lol. But in her defense they had not had the stuff since around Halloween and who knows when they will again. Most other stuff they had plenty of and the price of cow meat has dropped down some.

We then ventured into a chain drug store to get a pill box for a friend of Mrs Fixer and I overheard what seemed to be a Food Lion driver and CVS driver conversating about their warehouses are not receiving some things hence the empty shelves. I had been figuring it was pure panic buying, yet those two seemed to correct some of that incorrect thinking.

Atheletes foot cream is MIA. I finally found some but it's been a while looking. I still had some but it's almost gone. It works for various things besides atheletes foot and I'll leave it there.

So overall there are still hits and misses but being cold and flu season that's not surprising. At least to me anyway.


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## KITROBASKIN (Jan 9, 2022)

A friend of mine is closely affiliated with Home Depot. He says their shoplifting loss is enormous. He had numbers but I don't remember.


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## knucklegary (Jan 9, 2022)

Nomo Ramen here as well. Bottled water gone.. TP in very short supply. Glad we stocked up throughout the year

Byk, man I can smell your socks from over here!


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 9, 2022)

KITROBASKIN said:


> A friend of mine is closely affiliated with Home Depot. He says their shoplifting loss is enormous. He had numbers but I don't remember.


Looks like they're doing something about that theft. I'm not a fan of all their power tools locked up behind bars. When I was working doing electrical work, I'd have to buy tools on my time off between work and apprenticeship classes. Sometimes, I was sent to jobs 100 miles from home. Time was very precious. You could either get some much needed sleep or get something you needed for the job. For people who work for a living, if you can't grab it and go, you may go somewhere else. You might want to compare tools to choose the best one, but you can't do that with it locked up. However, with the recent smash and grabs, I understand they have to do this to try not to go out of business. Here's a video of their current theft prevention measures.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 9, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Looks like they're doing something about that theft. I'm not a fan of all their power tools locked up behind bars. When I was working doing electrical work, I'd have to buy tools on my time off between work and apprenticeship classes. Sometimes, I was sent to jobs 100 miles from home. Time was very precious. You could either get some much needed sleep or get something you needed for the job. For people who work for a living, if you can't grab it and go, you may go somewhere else. You might want to compare tools to choose the best one, but you can't do that with it locked up. However, with the recent smash and grabs, I understand they have to do this to try not to go out of business. Here's a video of their current theft prevention measures.



Interesting. The bluetooth product activation technology is a double edged sword. Once it's activated, what's to prevent a manufacturer from demanding an annual license fee from the user to keep it activated?


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## jtr1962 (Jan 9, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Interesting. The bluetooth product activation technology is a double edged sword. Once it's activated, what's to prevent a manufacturer from demanding an annual license fee from the user to keep it activated?


Not to mention it's another potential point of failure even if they don't do that. I won't buy products which are needlessly complicated.

The answer to the shoplifting issue is to go after the places that enable them to fence stolen merchandise. If they can't sell it, they won't steal it.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 9, 2022)

For the Bluetooth technology, they actually could have gone farther. Milwaukee tools have the Bluetooth technology that allows you to disable the tool if it gets too far away from your smartphone. It also allows you to track the tool on the job site so you know where it is at all times and if anyone took it. If they activated this feature to stay on when someone steals it or hasn’t purchased it yet, they could get a read on where someone’s stolen stash is when they track several tools at one location. It’s just a privacy issue. Do you really want to buy a tool that someone else can track you with? If they’re able to make a simple tweak at checkout for who can track what, it might be a good way to put an end to the smash and grabs.


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## dc38 (Jan 12, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Not to mention it's another potential point of failure even if they don't do that. I won't buy products which are needlessly complicated.
> 
> The answer to the shoplifting issue is to go after the places that enable them to fence stolen merchandise. If they can't sell it, they won't steal it.



Anybody else share the sentiment that if someone feels that someone else's things are worth more than their own lives, perhaps it would be discourteous not to oblige their short-sightedness? Also, had an acquaintance from Cali tell me that thieves get away with anything less than $1k...is that true?


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 12, 2022)

$950 or less is a misdemeanor so they usually aren’t prosecuted. If they are, they’re out the next day because of zero dollar bail. That’s the problem. Criminals are let out immediately, and will go after whoever got them in trouble. That makes it unsafe for the cops and anyone who considers doing the right thing to get the criminals arrested. It’s hard to stop crime when crime has the upper hand. People blame the cops, but it’s like blaming someone for not getting a bucket filled with water when the bottom is cut off. You have to wonder how corrupt the people are that put these laws in place and if it’s the criminals that are actually running the state. A lot needs to change to undue this mess and it starts with cleaning house and undoing those stupid laws. Otherwise things will only get worse.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 12, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> I hope it doesn’t happen, but I think we should prepare for another round of mandatory stay at home lockdowns to start to take place within the next week or two. Get enough groceries to get by for at least a month (nonperishable/ doesn’t need cooled).


It's happening now. May be too late in some areas to stock up on food for a month.



The lockdowns are returning to some areas starting today. Areas around San Franscisco and Los Angeles are asking people to stay home except for essential travel. Large groups and activities are being banned.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 12, 2022)

The weird thing is this doesn't seem to be affecting the east coast. I went to the store yesterday. The shelves were pretty full. Even the meat section had a good selection. I wore an N95 mask with a surgical mask over it. It must have worked because I felt a little light headed for a while. If oxygen had a hard time getting in, the virus would have an even harder time. Store was mostly empty as is usual for that time (8 PM).

First time to the store in a month. I missed my last trip two weeks ago on account of severe back pain. Mostly better now but the day when it started it took me an hour to get out of bed.

Anyway, plenty of stuff in the house. If we do have a lockdown for a few weeks I'll be OK.


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## wjv (Jan 12, 2022)

scout24 said:


> This has been a fairly serious thread, and if it was meant in jest the :sarcasm: font or smilie should have been used.. (oh wait.. )😉 If it was in jest, carry on.



Since it was me he quoted, and made the remark about.

I found it pretty darn funny!


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## wjv (Jan 12, 2022)

I live in SW WA State
The shelves are mostly stocked.

No problems with meats. A bit low on canned goods. Fresh produce is 60%-70% of normal.

Overall we are in pretty good shape.

I really don't know if the problems are:
- The ports
- The long haul trucks
- The short haul local truck
- Labor at the stores/warehouses

Maybe it varys based on geographical location. And by store.

My wife went to Safeway and said she could find any packages of cream cheese. I went to Albertsons earlier that day and noticed that they had "buy 2 get one free" on packages of cream cheese.

One thing for sure is that food prices are up. A lot more than the official 7% inflation.

In the past few months I'd say that ground beef is up a dollar per lb. So that's at least 20%. . .


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## idleprocess (Jan 12, 2022)

Last weekend the local Costco only looked to be out of ... things that one would expect them to be out of around closing time. Grocery store in my neighborhood appeared well-stocked. COVID rapid tests on the other hand seem to be in short supply in the region.


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## Poppy (Jan 13, 2022)

Two weeks ago our local facebook page people were clamoring for rapids tests around New Years. They were hard to find. A pharmacy nearby had them, 2 in a package for $25. I picked up a package, should have bought two.
Last week, my son was calling around and there weren't any to be had in his area. I made one call and the pharmacy I called had a supply. $17.50 each. The following morning, in my son's area, the County was giving them out for free.

From the above, I gather that there is a supply of them, there just isn't an over-supply of them.

The demand also goes up and down. For example, a friend had a relatively large group of people at his house for New Year's Eve. He purchased a lot of tests, and each person was tested before being allowed to enter.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 13, 2022)

I scored two home test kits the other day at a local pharmacy. They had a fair amount of them on the shelf and were limiting them to 4 kits per customer. I haven't been there since, so I don't know if their supply chain situation has improved or if I just happened to stop by when they got a shipment.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 13, 2022)

Went to Stater Bros. today. Wanted to get a couple 2.5 gallon jugs of water with the spout for a trip this weekend. They had none. A worker said they had been out of those for several months and were temporarily discontinued. Had to get 5 one gallon regular jugs instead. Further down the aisle, I was looking at the Gatorade and Powerade section. Almost all of it was gone. This was maybe 12+ feet of shelf space top to bottom with almost nothing. These shortages are getting worse.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Jan 13, 2022)

After shopping at two local stores, I see supplies are in good stock here. The sky isn't falling everywhere.


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## bykfixer (Jan 15, 2022)

Gatorade was back at my grocery store, but my favorite bottled water…gone. Oh they had cases and cases of 12-16oz bottles but I buy mine in the container with a spout. Gallon jugs of brand B were on sale so I was "that guy" who bought the last 2.

Now there has been a run on toilet paper again. There was still some left but there was a mighty big hole where there is usually a bunch of 24 packs.

And there were no Doritos or Fritos. Perhaps 2 for $3 played a role? Yup, the normal $3.79 bag of nacho cheese doritos was a buck 50 a bag so, why not stock up?

There was no chicken or pork. None! That was strange to see again. Plenty of $14.99/lb beef to be had though. Ground beef was down to $5.99/lb but since I don't usually dig on that we passed it up.

Overall, considering it was Friday after 5 pm when the store is usually packed with "what's for dinner" or "get that carton of beer for the weekend" types. And then with a snow storm predicted, aside from toilet paper hoarding and panic buying bottled water all seems pretty much normal. But I did wonder why no pork or chicken.


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## Poppy (Jan 15, 2022)

Each week the stores have some sale items, "loss leaders" to entice shoppers to come to their store. They are usually in stock. However, perhaps with people being a little more cost conscious due to the rising prices, I've seen holes where those "loss leaders" were stocked. Yep... gone!

We have three major supermarkets within a mile of my house. The one I usually shop at because I know where everything is located, I have reported holes. A couple of days ago, there were rows of shelves empty. NOT because of supply chain. They decided to rearrange the store, so now I won't know where everything is anymore, and I may start to shop at the newer larger store.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 15, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Each week the stores have some sale items, "loss leaders" to entice shoppers to come to their store. They are usually in stock. However, perhaps with people being a little more cost conscious due to the rising prices, I've seen holes where those "loss leaders" were stocked. Yep... gone!


I saw that on my last trip to the grocery store. A quart of half and half for $2.49. Would have bought one but they were all gone.


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## bykfixer (Jan 15, 2022)

As long as they keep veggies to the right side, dairy on the left side of the store and meats at the rear I'm ok regardless of changes they make. It drives Mrs Fixer nuts when they change things up. 

Now there are times I wonder why the peanut butter is no longer next to the jelly but now next to pancake syrup on the boxed ceral row……but at least it aint next to the mayonaise anymore.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 15, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> As long as they keep veggies to the right side, dairy on the left side of the store and meats at the rear I'm ok regardless of changes they make. It drives Mrs Fixer nuts when they change things up.
> 
> Now there are times I wonder why the peanut butter is no longer next to the jelly but now next to pancake syrup on the boxed ceral row……but at least it aint next to the mayonaise anymore.


My store did that when they put in new freezers and refrigerators. But in general they don't change things often enough for it to be a major annoyance.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 15, 2022)

I was at a local pharmacy again today (the "Green Walls" chain) and they still had a good stock of antigen test kits. They even had a couple more brands of kits on hand. It seems to be different from store to store though.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Jan 15, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> As long as they keep veggies to the right side, dairy on the left side of the store and meats at the rear I'm ok regardless of changes they make. It drives Mrs Fixer nuts when they change things up.
> 
> Now there are times I wonder why the peanut butter is no longer next to the jelly but now next to pancake syrup on the boxed ceral row……but at least it aint next to the mayonaise anymore.


If you'd ever put peanut butter on pancakes, or waffles, for that matter, you'd understand. 

I joke. Peanut butter should always accompany jelly. 

As for mayonnaise, you do know the people in Holland put it on their French fries. They drown em in it.


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## aznsx (Jan 15, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> There was no chicken or pork. None!



I wonder where all the pig meat from that great VA company Smithfield is going to? Hmmm...


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## bykfixer (Jan 15, 2022)

I suppose I need to clarify NSX. There was no fresh butchered pork or chicken. There were some pre-packaged Smithfield and Gwaltney items along with Jack Daniels ribs etc. But no pork chops and the like.


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## turbodog (Jan 15, 2022)

All in stock except this... been out for a month.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 15, 2022)

turbodog said:


> All in stock except this... been out for a month.
> 
> View attachment 22403


Interesting. I didn't know this package existed. I'm gonna look for it.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 21, 2022)

99 cent store was low on 2 liter bottles of soda. They shrank the Shasta brand from 2.5 liters to 2 liters. Most of the sodas that were in stock were 1 liter and under. Most other stuff was well stocked. Bananas all looked expired though.


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## turbodog (Jan 21, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Interesting. I didn't know this package existed. I'm gonna look for it.



Scored a case of 8! This last around 2-3 weeks.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 22, 2022)

This isn't going to help matters. 17,000 union employees for BNSF Railway are planning to strike on February 1 when a new policy goes into effect that makes it difficult for them to get any real time off of work. The company is trying to block the strike in court, but there is nothing to keep the employees from quitting instead if the company wins the lawsuit. This can dramatically make our supply chain issues worse if we can't get goods transported efficiently by rail. Here's the article: https://www.kfyrtv.com/2022/01/20/17000-union-employees-bnsf-prepare-strike/
Here's some information about the company. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNSF_...the electricity produced in the United States.
Some of the information is kind of scary, like they haul enough coal to produce 25% of the electricity in the U.S.


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## Poppy (Jan 22, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> This isn't going to help matters. 17,000 union employees for BNSF Railway are planning to strike on February 1 when a new policy goes into effect that makes it difficult for them to get any real time off of work. The company is trying to block the strike in court, but there is nothing to keep the employees from quitting instead if the company wins the lawsuit. This can dramatically make our supply chain issues worse if we can't get goods transported efficiently by rail. Here's the article: https://www.kfyrtv.com/2022/01/20/17000-union-employees-bnsf-prepare-strike/
> Here's some information about the company. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNSF_Railway#:~:text=BNSF Railway. According to corporate press releases, the,of the electricity produced in the United States.
> Some of the information is kind of scary, like they haul enough coal to produce 25% of the electricity in the U.S.


I'm not scared. Pres Reagan replaced air traffic controllers Biden can replace them.


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## turbodog (Jan 22, 2022)

I tend to side with BNSF. They have invested hundreds of millions into equipment/maintenance/etc since 2000, with a commensurate drop in accidents. My faith would be that the new policy is in line with improving on-time deliveries, cost, responsiveness, and safety.


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## Poppy (Jan 22, 2022)

Just to be clear, I am typically pro union, but when it comes to national security, Unions have to be careful because the President holds the absolute trump card, and can bust them like Reagan did. With that thought in mind, it takes a LOT to get me nervous about alarmist threats. I didn't like it when Reagan did it, but he did reduce any fear I may have had, that the country can be so threatened.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 22, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> This isn't going to help matters. 17,000 union employees for BNSF Railway are planning to strike on February 1 when a new policy goes into effect that makes it difficult for them to get any real time off of work. The company is trying to block the strike in court, but there is nothing to keep the employees from quitting instead if the company wins the lawsuit. This can dramatically make our supply chain issues worse if we can't get goods transported efficiently by rail. Here's the article: https://www.kfyrtv.com/2022/01/20/17000-union-employees-bnsf-prepare-strike/
> Here's some information about the company. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNSF_Railway#:~:text=BNSF Railway. According to corporate press releases, the,of the electricity produced in the United States.
> Some of the information is kind of scary, like they haul enough coal to produce 25% of the electricity in the U.S.


A couple of thoughts on this in no particular order:

1) Not a fan of so-called points systems for attendance if they penalize employees for taking time off they're legally entitled to. Fact is workers aren't robots. If a company insists on not giving people adequate time off, expect regular turnover as people quit when they get burned out. Amazon already knows this, and apparently is OK with it. However, it's far easier to replace a warehouse worker than a railroad worker. It takes YEARS to learn how to safely operate trains. I don't want fatigued employees operating freight trains potentially carrying hazardous chemicals. That's a disaster waiting to happen. For that matter I don't want fatigued employees operating trucks or buses, either.

2) Not sure if the union announcement on this is hyperbole or not. I don't know how much time off BNSF employees actually get and/or if they regularly abused the system. So there's a chance BNSF could be in the right here.

3) This will be settled one way or another before it leads to a strike. Whether BNSF is right or wrong, they'll be the scapegoat in a lot of people's minds if the power goes out due to lack of coal. And their stock price will drop as a result.

4) Sure, the workers could up and quit if they don't get what they want. If these were Amazon warehouse workers they can be replaced relatively quickly and easily. However, they're skilled people in very specialized jobs. Their replacements will take a long time to train (no pun intended). If large numbers quit, this is going to disrupt things for many months, perhaps years. So again, BNSF isn't going to let it happen. It'll be a black eye for them.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 22, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Just to be clear, I am typically pro union, but when it comes to national security, Unions have to be careful because the President holds the absolute trump card, and can bust them like Reagan did. With that thought in mind, it takes a LOT to get me nervous about alarmist threats. I didn't like it when Reagan did it, but he did reduce any fear I may have had, that the country can be so threatened.


I'm not nervous about this either, for the reasons I mentioned in my previous post. The consequences of a strike or large numbers of workers quitting are too large for BNSF to let it happen.

I'm generally pro-worker, but here a strike could literally bring the country to a standstill. And railroad workers are VERY well compensated for their trouble. The President holds the trump card here, but I suspect things will be resolved before he needs to intervene.


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## Poppy (Jan 22, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> I'm not nervous about this either, for the reasons I mentioned in my previous post. The consequences of a strike or large numbers of workers quitting are too large for BNSF to let it happen.
> 
> I'm generally pro-worker, but here a strike could literally bring the country to a standstill. And railroad workers are VERY well compensated for their trouble. The President holds the trump card here, but I suspect things will be resolved before he needs to intervene.


Union workers QUITTING! Especially for a Union that has been around for as long as they have been? That's hilarious.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 22, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Union workers QUITTING! Especially for a Union that has been around for as long as they have been? That's hilarious.


I'm not seeing that happening, either. Working on the railroad is a coveted job, with great pay and a great pension. Sure, it's grueling also, but you know that going in.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 22, 2022)

The problem is that this possible railway strike is a canary in the coal mine. Companies across the U.S. are short handed in their workforce so they are coming up with creative ways to make their remaining workers work more hours to compensate. This is causing workers to get exhausted and fed up and it’s only a matter of time before they strike, quit, or give up working for a time (they need a vacation). This won’t be the last company to deal with this problem. As for how it is handled, the courts could side with the company but it won’t fix the problem, that the workers are fatigued, they aren’t robots who can work without sleep, there aren’t enough of them, and there is nobody qualified to replace them immediately.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 22, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> The problem is that this possible railway strike is a canary in the coal mine. Companies across the U.S. are short handed in their workforce so they are coming up with creative ways to make their remaining workers work more hours to compensate. This is causing workers to get exhausted and fed up and it’s only a matter of time before they strike, quit, or give up working for a time (they need a vacation). This won’t be the last company to deal with this problem. As for how it is handled, the courts could side with the company but it won’t fix the problem, that the workers are fatigued, they aren’t robots who can work without sleep, there aren’t enough of them, and there is nobody qualified to replace them immediately.


I totally agree. Long term the answer is to automate jobs that are difficult to fill. Short term? Well, I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of pain. You're correct that the issue is more lack of time off than anything else. Offering higher pay only helps to a degree but as you said workers aren't robots. Everyone needs time off.


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## Poppy (Jan 22, 2022)

Cry me a river. I worked from 1979 to 1999 without a vacation. When I had a union job, prior to that, I'd jump at any opportunity to *get paid time and a half* to work overtime.

These men can't be forced to work without sleep. Look at the federal regulations for tractor trailer drivers.

Please stop over grammaticizing these threads, or this one will be closed too! Because of YOU!


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## Poppy (Jan 22, 2022)

OK rant off... back on topic.

I visited a Costco tonight in Mt Arlington, NJ
It appeared to have all of their shelves stocked.
The only thing I went there for was their Kirkland water, 40- 16oz bottles for $3.99
Totally, out of stock. They had pallets of Poland Spring in stock, but no price tag.

I cruised through their meat department, and didn't see any holes. I don't buy meat there because their packaging is too large for our level of consumption.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 22, 2022)

I thought this thread was about the pandemic supply chain. Is it only limited to what we find in the grocery store while ignoring how it got there? I brought up a potential problem coming up. It may happen, it may not. Still, it is something to be kept aware of like the ships at the port of L.A. or the trucks moving goods across the country. It all has an impact on how we get supplies at the market. I don't care what side people are on regarding the issue of the possible railway strike. Let's keep the politics out of it. The potential of losing more of our shipping ability is news that can dramatically affect our supply chain. That is pertinent to this topic. I'm not making this stuff up. It's in the news.


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## Poppy (Jan 22, 2022)

HOF, you present this information as though it is the end of civilization in the United States of America. I assure it is not.

Thank you for bringing this to our attention.


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## Poppy (Jan 22, 2022)

As I walked through Costco this afternoon, they had a section, full of Duracell batteries. I guess they were on sale.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 22, 2022)

Poppy said:


> HOF, you present this information as though it is the end of civilization in the United States of America. I assure it is not.
> 
> Thank you for bringing this to our attention.


We’re in the third year of a global pandemic, had our oil pipelines and meat companies hacked, are in a global supply chain crisis, and may see a war with Russia and Ukraine soon. This won’t be the end of civilization, it’s just par for the course. It’s just good to know when the SHTF, so you can get out of the splatter zone.


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## turbodog (Jan 22, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> ... That is pertinent to this topic. I'm not making this stuff up. It's in the news.
> ...



Pertinent yes. But accurate? We don't have any real details to weigh in on. *I actually looked for specific details on: the new attendance policy, current policy, existing employee absence rates, etc.* Wasn't able to find any of those.

If BNSF employees go out on strike, in the middle of a pandemic, as critical transportation workers... it smacks of selfishness. Imagine if healthcare workers did the same thing.









Blame Unions for the Hostess Bankruptcy | National Review


Stock up on Twinkies while you can. As everyone now knows, Hostess Brands, Inc. has gone bankrupt, thanks to striking workers who just struck themselves out of a job. Small wonder that union member…




www.nationalreview.com


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## scout24 (Jan 22, 2022)

...Amost as big a deal as the huge cross-borders trucking issue we face right now... It would be quite difficult to make up the volume lost if even 10% of trucks sit at the borders. And a tremendous amount of goods and food come in from our northern and southern neighbors.


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## bykfixer (Jan 22, 2022)

C'mon guys……back to topic, not whether some union should or should not strike.


https://www.candlepowerforums.com/threads/the-us-labor-status.478176/


That's what this one is for……

Meanwhile the song "I've been working on the rail road, all the live long day" is stuck in my head.

Back in 020 when Brazil was getting cremed with covid issues it was easy to tell what stuff came from Brazil. Just look for the holes in the produce section. But many of our clothes and other items come from south of the border.

Fact is we've had it so good for so long we freak out as a society at the slightest hickup in the supply chain in America. I remember as a lad store shelves having empty spots was the norm at certain times.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 22, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Pertinent yes. But accurate? We don't have any real details to weigh in on. *I actually looked for specific details on: the new attendance policy, current policy, existing employee absence rates, etc.* Wasn't able to find any of those.


Some of the details of the policy to take effect February 1, 2022 are in the first video I posted. Much of how it could affect us is in the second video. Usually hard to find policy details online that haven't yet taken effect. I'll leave it at that. I wanted to make everyone aware that this strike could happen and if it did, would affect our supply chain. I did not want to start a pissing match on which side was right or wrong. Let's keep politics out of this thread and get back on topic.


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## jtr1962 (Jan 22, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Meanwhile the song "I've been working on the rail road, all the live long day" is stuck in my head.


Me too! 


bykfixer said:


> Fact is we've had it so good for so long we freak out as a society at the slightest hickup in the supply chain in America. I remember as a lad store shelves having empty spots was the norm at certain times.


Ask anyone who lived through WWII or the Great Depression how things were. My mother was only 6 when WWII ended but she used to tell me stories of how they saved chewing gum because rubber went to the war effort. Along with a lot of other things that were either rationed, or simply not available at all.

In my lifetime I recall wearing coats in school because the heat was off. I think the reasons were twofold. One, the energy crisis. Two, NYC nearly went bankrupt in the early 1970s, so they just couldn't afford things like heat for the schools. There were perpetual shortages of school supplies as well, things like paper, chalk, etc.

I'm fine if certain things are in short supply, or just priced beyond what I'm willing to pay. Bacon has gone way up, but I can live without it.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 22, 2022)

My family is building a chicken coup and starting to raise chickens. My neighbors have all starting raising farm animals. Your store will never be short on supplies if it’s food grown in your backyard. Sometimes you have to adapt to survive instead of waiting for someone to help you. I remember someone telling me this, “Hungry man wait long time for roast duck to fly in mouth.”


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## jtr1962 (Jan 22, 2022)

I used to grow vegetables. Seeing how high prices are now, I'm seriously considering it again. I'll have to start the seeds next month if I go that route.


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## Poppy (Jan 23, 2022)

*Abraham Browning of Camden* is given credit for giving New Jersey the nickname the Garden State. ... Browning said that our Garden State is an immense barrel, filled with good things to eat and open at both ends, with Pennsylvanians grabbing from one end and New Yorkers from the other. The name stuck ever since.

The Official Web Site for The State of New Jersey | Nicknamehttps://www.state.nj.us › nj › about › facts › nickname


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 23, 2022)

New Jersey has changed a lot since it was declared the garden state. When asked what the state bird of New Jersey is, the most common answer is “Are you kidding me? There are no birds in New Jersey.”


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## bykfixer (Jan 23, 2022)

My local grocery store had plenty of items that were missing the previous week, yet there were still a few holes here and there. On the soup row those "chunky" soups were still not replenished. On the opposite side spaghetti noodles and the ribbon kind were in short supply depending on the brand. That's week 3 for those items.

They had Pert plus shampoo again. I told Mrs Fixer she should get a bottle. She said "I have two now". I replied "how long does a bottle last you?" She said "a month". I responded "and how long did they not have Pert?" She said "6 or 7 months"……"oh, right" and she grabbed a bottle. 

Pig was back and so was 'trop 50' low calorie orange juice. Chicken was available but not a great selection. The toilet paper row was well stocked and again frito lay products were largely gone due to a $3.99 each sale. Usually on Sunday the Pepsi man and Frito man block the aisle but for the second week they were absent so there were holes in Pepsi products too.

Overall it was pretty much just us in the store. Maybe 10 people total and the roads were empty too. That was strange to see.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jan 23, 2022)

I'm not seeing any big shortages of anything here lately. Fresh veggies, baked goods, dairy, paper products, frozen goods, all in stock. And I see tons of sanitizing products in stock at grocery stores, drug stores and DIY stores.


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## bykfixer (Jan 23, 2022)

To me that was the best things to see again PW. Sanitizing products that is.


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## raggie33 (Jan 23, 2022)

couple a weeks ago salt was like 33 cents a can. now its damn near 140


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## Poppy (Jan 24, 2022)

Supermarkets here are pushing for use of their shopping applets. Digital coupons, often offer greater savings than clipped coupons. What a PIA. Internet access in the store is usually pretty weak, so you have to do your shopping/browsing while at home.

Yesterday, I wanted to get some beef. I browsed the online flyers of the two big stores near me. Their prices were comparable, it seems that most beef was $9 a lb and up. Ground beef was less, but still at about $5.50 a lb. Meatloaf mix, was on sale at $3.99 / lb. With a digital coupon I picked up some Top Round for $3.99 a lb, normally at $7.99 a lb.

I didn't see any big holes, strawberries, and salads were back in stock. Bell peppers (all three colors) were on sale, and in stock. Breads, rice, and paper products were all well stocked, and with brand names. I didn't check out the water isle.

Saturday, I did go through a Costco, just to get a few cases of their Kirkland 40 bottle cases of water. Out of stock, they did have however PLENTY of the higher priced Poland Spring water, no thank you. They also had brand name TP, and brand name paper towels. I don't think they had their Kirkland brand.

I topped off my gas tank at $3.19


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## bykfixer (Jan 24, 2022)

I forgot about water. Week 2 without my sized, 2.5 gallon containers. Plenty of gallon size and smaller though. That is not that unusual in winter though. My thought is they clear out the lesser sized containers that collect dust by not stocking the bulk kind. I just buy gallon jugs of local produced spring water instead. 

What surprises me is how empty car dealer lots are. The showroom floor where I get my car serviced is empty. And the 200 or so parking spaces on the lot are every other spot with a couple rows empty. WOW!! All of them around me are like that. And what stock they have are mostly used cars and trucks. We bought an 018 a couple years ago and that same car used is priced higher now than it was new in 018.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jan 24, 2022)

Went to Costco. They seemed pretty well stocked, but prices keep going up. $4.50 per lb. for ground beef, $9 a lb. for steak. Haven’t found any Costco recently that carries regular salt or butt rub barbecue seasoning. Almond milk is near $10 for three half gallon containers. A flat of eggs is around $10 (It was $14 at Stater Bros). Went with the shelf stable almond milk with 12 1 quart containers for $12 instead. There was no shortage of t.p. or paper towels.

Went to Stater Bros the other day and several spots had signs saying that a product was out of stock due to supply chain problems. The Ramen noodle section was cleared out. Meat and eggs were very overpriced. They were permanently out of sesame seeds (I use them to make orange chicken).


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## bykfixer (Jan 30, 2022)

This weeks treasure hunt at the grocery store went fairly uncomplicated although some alternatives had to be purchased. Again they were out of the 2.5 gallon water jugs and turkey sausage. And the canned lima beans Mrs Fixer likes seem to be out of season or something because there wasn't even a space for those.

Fresh chicken was noticeably sparse again and what they had was higher priced than cow. Fresh fish? Nope, nada. Frozen fish was sparse but a pound of flounder was $5 so flounder is on the menu this week.

The cold and flu section was nearly bare again. For some reason nearly every cart we saw was loaded with paper towel jumbo packs. So I did buy some more toilet paper. Doritos were back but Fritos and Cheetos were gone.

Cleaning supplies seems back to normal except powder for my dishwasher, which I suppose has gone the way of the vcr anymore. So I just looked at a youtube video and saw I can use liquid for dishwashers and those pods in my older machine. 

At work we are still having supply issues with things like various pipe and concrete. But those are due to such high demand after the 2020 pandemic stimulous $ hit the streets. And along with that the federal $ from the 08 stimulous shovel ready jobs that were log jammed in court for environmental concerns or design issues are also being built. The project I'm overseeing now was conceived in 2009. Also developers who had been figuring interest rate hikes are also building as fast as they can. 

Another construction related issue is a shortage of heavy equipment. You can buy back hoes and bull dozers all day long. But GPS equipped units are selling faster than ice cubes in Haidees. It took a while for the industry to take advantage of GPS to build with but in 2020 the idea hit the construction industry like an atomic bomb.


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## scout24 (Jan 30, 2022)

Interesting, Byk. Up here in my neck of the woods, we have John Deere, New Holland, Mahindra, Cub Cadet, and Kubota dealers in the immediate area. There is a serious ongoing shortage of equipment and parts from hobby/homeowner sized stuff up through contractor sized units. I don't know about big kid equipment, but the lots are sparse here and have been for over a year. Parts are hit and miss.


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## bykfixer (Jan 30, 2022)

Lots are far from full here either Scout. But if you've got a hundred k for a giant Tonka wheel loader they can hook a brutha up. Want 4? That's a different ending to the story. 

I needed a wheel for my mower that took 3 months arrive.


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## bykfixer (Feb 3, 2022)

Speaking of full lots, near me is a Carvana distribution site. Holy cow that 10 acre parking lot is packed with like new used cars. 

I'm just amazed that the company is even making it. People buy cars on the internet without even test driving them? 

I'll bet the repo man is making a fortune off of that company. WOW!


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## Hooked on Fenix (Feb 3, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Speaking of full lots, near me is a Carvana distribution site. Holy cow that 10 acre parking lot is packed with like new used cars.
> 
> I'm just amazed that the company is even making it. People buy cars on the internet without even test driving them?
> 
> I'll bet the repo man is making a fortune off of that company. WOW!


Please don't buy from Carvana. There is good reason why they have plenty of cars. People are finding out that they are selling the cars without providing the registration required to get more than temporary tags. Then, they are doubling up on the temporary tags or giving them out of state temporary tags. People get stuck paying for a car they don't have clear title to and can't legally drive.


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## bykfixer (Feb 3, 2022)

I've bought 2 cars without test driving them…no 3.
First was a 1966 Mustang that had sat for 14 years under a car port. I took the cash, a battery and 5 gallons of gas with me. I gave the man the money, put in the gas, then the battery, fired that sucker up in about 25 seconds and drove it home. It began falling apart as soon as I got it home.

Next was a 77 Cutlass a mechanic family member had fixed up real nice. I handed him the cash and drove it home. That thing passed everything but a gas station thanks to a hi power 350 engine and tranny shift kit. Back then the gas gauge would move up and down if you accelarated or slowed down. The Cutlass gas guage would move towards empty when you accelarated but never would move back toward full.

The 3rd was last summer when I bought my son's 2004 Lexus. I gave him a check and he gave me the title and says "wanna test drive it?"……"sure, why not afterall I own it now". Drove that one to a parts store for a car cover and let it sit until Covid mode DMV sent me some tags about 3 months later.

Meanwhile my local grocery store had 1/4 gallon containers of skim milk again. That's been hit or miss for about the last year.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Feb 4, 2022)

Got back from shopping at Costco today. They finally had bratwurst back in stock. They had no canned corn or sacks of beans. The 5 lb. bag of grass fed hamburger patties was up to $24. Their pack of corn tortillas was up to around $5. Honey Nut Cheerios were $9. Almond milk 3 pack was $9.49. Store seemed to be fairly well stocked with some basic items like corn, beans, pork butt rub, and salt missing, but a lot of the prices were insane. The cheaper options for yogurt were all gone as well.


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## knucklegary (Feb 4, 2022)

Safeway, Vons, Albertsons in stock on the shelves today; Honey Nut O's $6.. Almond Milk $2.50.. 

Bountiful pork butts shopping.. Screw Costco!


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## idleprocess (Feb 4, 2022)

Slim pickings at the local Tom Thumb grocery store this afternoon. Ground beef about $7/lb. Chicken breasts ... similarly-priced. No logs of Jimmy Dean sausage. Bread aisle nearly empty. Milk selection almost as bare. Name-brand cereal available but clearly taking profits ahead of inflation actually impacting the bottom line - opted for the house brand.

Of course, the Dallas area did have an ice storm Wednesday night so it's possible that panicky locals + a missed delivery or two contributed to the shortages.


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## bykfixer (Feb 4, 2022)

$6 for Cheerios? Good gosh!!
Food Lion house brand "tastee-os" $3.49 for a 12.8oz box of honey nut or multi-grain, which is sweetened with molasis so it only has 8 grams added sugar. Or my favorite 11.8oz box of peanut butter that only has 12g.
I do buy two at a time tho since there are times there's a hole where the peanut butter tastee-os go. 

One thing we noted recently is there seems to be plenty of 4-6" PVC SDR 35 pipe but if you want 4-6" HDPE pipe, good luck with that. Concrete pipe is starting to trickle in now too. Again that was tarrif related where there were so many advance orders the manufacturers had a backlog of orders as long as a year for common sizes. Want something odd sized or oval, "pfft, we can get you that next week" lol.


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## knucklegary (Feb 4, 2022)

Byk, have you tried Barbara's Puffin's? They make a cinnamon, has 6g sugar, and peanut butter is my favorite, comes in at 9g per serving but who's counting


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## bykfixer (Feb 5, 2022)

KG I looked it up on my favorite search engine to get a sense of what to look for in the store. And of course my favorite search engine showed me 32 links to buy the stuff by the case at amazon but nothing about Barbara Puffin's company history or other stuff I was interested in.

That's one thing absent in the supply chain that probably won't return……basic information from internet searches. Type in "ulcer symptoms" and get 42 places I can buy Malox at Amazon……

Edit I just typed "internet search engines" and first thing I see is a place to buy addidas shoes. 
End edit, end rant……


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## knucklegary (Feb 5, 2022)

Yeah, the Puffin's are hit an miss around my area. Fair price selling for just under $4 box. When I can find them I'll stock up.. First flavor to empty shelves is peanut butter then goes the cinnamon

We have a big box grocery called Food Fork, aka Fork Lift, I call 'em Fork Fxxkers.. Not too much in way of "deals" there, In fact their price gouging on some shelf items is in line with Costco

We have a couple mom and pop type small independent grocery stores. We will give them business whenever we can but during these times it's hard to find everything..


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## ledbetter (Feb 5, 2022)

Why bad mouthing Costco? Never had a bad experience there myself. Customer service is great. Prices are generally in line with competition and their quality is usually better. They’re also Union!! They’re the only retail who makes money and treats their employees with respect, unlike Walmart and Amazon. A great American success story that I’m proud to support. delete that…
I get certain items there, not everything. Local fruit/veggie stand has its positives too. It’s nice to have choices. “When I was young…” there were a lot fewer choices. I don’t worry about inflation much myself since I cook basic foods that are never very expensive to begin with. Gas, booze, eating out, crap like that is going up and not coming down.


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## bykfixer (Feb 5, 2022)

Some of Costco is unionized. Not all. 

Hopefully my local grocery still will have the house brand orange soda in 7oz cans this week. That's been missing a few weeks now.


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## ledbetter (Feb 5, 2022)

Doctor once told me soda is liquid satan.


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## idleprocess (Feb 5, 2022)

Local Target grocery section a wee bit picked over this afternoon. Recovery from the recent ice storm atop the usual 'Rona disruptions probably.


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## BVH (Feb 5, 2022)

Read 3 pages back and didn't see any remarks on scarcity of pet foods of all kinds. I've found this online and in most local grocery stores. Lots of bare shelves.


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## idleprocess (Feb 5, 2022)

BVH said:


> Read 3 pages back and didn't see any remarks on scarcity of pet foods of all kinds. I've found this online and in most local grocery stores. Lots of bare shelves.


Oh yes, cat and dog food availability has been _multiple choice_ for more than a year now. I've transitioned pets between foods a few times now because of this and always stay a bag or crate of cans ahead of consumption.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Feb 5, 2022)

BVH said:


> Read 3 pages back and didn't see any remarks on scarcity of pet foods of all kinds. I've found this online and in most local grocery stores. Lots of bare shelves.





idleprocess said:


> Oh yes, cat and dog food availability has been _multiple choice_ for more than a year now. I've transitioned pets between foods a few times now because of this and always stay a bag or crate of cans ahead of consumption.


 
Yep, I've been having difficulty finding cases of wet TrippingHazard food. Oops! Forgot one of our sons programmed the laptop to autocorrect the c-word for kitty to TrippingHazard. Darn fool kids! 😀


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## knucklegary (Feb 5, 2022)

The black'n white has unusual markings. Do you call him Pepe le pew?


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Feb 5, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> The black'n white has unusual markings. Do you call him Pepe le pew?


His name is Ching, but lately, ....



I've been calling him Chucker because he's prone to eating his wet food too fast and .... well you know.


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## Poppy (Feb 5, 2022)

It appears to me that there is a disparity between East Coast and West Coast supply. I haven't seen any holes in food, snacks or whatever for pets on the East Coast.


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## Poppy (Feb 5, 2022)

ledbetter said:


> Why bad mouthing Costco? Never had a bad experience there myself. Customer service is great. Prices are generally in line with competition and their quality is usually better. They’re also Union!! They’re the only retail who makes money and treats their employees with respect, unlike Walmart and Amazon. A great American success story that I’m proud to support. delete that…
> I get certain items there, not everything. Local fruit/veggie stand has its positives too. It’s nice to have choices. “When I was young…” there were a lot fewer choices. I don’t worry about inflation much myself since I cook basic foods that are never very expensive to begin with. Gas, booze, eating out, crap like that is going up and not coming down.


Regarding Costco, I was happy to see that they seem to be respectful to their employees, in that they close the store on National Holidays.


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## turbodog (Feb 6, 2022)

ledbetter said:


> ... Costco? ... They’re also Union!! ...



Just a few stores here and there, around 10% of total employees. And Amazon provides tuition reimbursement FYI.


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## ledbetter (Feb 6, 2022)

California‘s different, in a lot of ways, and the Costco’s near me are all unionized. I realize it’s different around the country. Amazon just built an enormous fulfillment center not far from me, and though I’m a prime member, I always feel a little guilty getting their boxes delivered to my door. I suppose it’s from some of the horror stories you read about or the inability of unions to make any headway. I own stock in both Costco and Amazon. As Peter Lynch would say, buy what you know and use.


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## bykfixer (Feb 6, 2022)

Today's grocery trip showed a bunch of things were back in stock. Mrs Fixer said "is there something we need to know?" as we were surrounded by cases and cases of bottled water throughout the store. I'll say if there wasn't 1000 cases it wasn't far from it.

I think I know why Fritos were bogo for a while. They were back on the shelf this week in 9.5oz bags where before they were 11oz……


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## Poppy (Feb 6, 2022)

Ah... one year when my fraternity was selling clams in a parking lot festival, the option was to raise the price, or decrease the number of clams in a serving to maintain a decent profit margin. We sold clams five at a time, not the typical half dozen.


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## xxo (Feb 6, 2022)

It's not just cheerios, unfortunately monoclonal antibody treatments along with the new pfizer paxlovid (a set of 3 pills, two are a repurposed AIDs med and the third is pfizer's new drug molecularly similar to ivermectin). Since these are pretty much the only early treatments currently available to most of people in the U.S.A, it really sucks to get covid if you are at high risk and can't get these medicines. 

I know someone at very high risk who was sent to the ER by their doctor this week for monoclonal antibodies, who would have gotten them a couple weeks ago, be denied treatment due to dwindling supply and because they were not sick enough yet - they were basically told to come back when their lips turned blue. Luckily they got a Rx for paxlovid filled, are taking zinc, Pepcid AC, D and B complex vitamins recommended by their doctor and are doing fine.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Feb 7, 2022)

I wish people would stop buying up all the individual supplements. I have to take vitamins B2, B12, C, D3, a multivitamin without iodine, magnesium, calcium citrate, and zinc because of deficiencies caused by celiac disease. Have to take both Pepcid and Prilosec for GERD. Can’t take anything with iodine (due to Hashimotos) or gluten. If you aren’t allergic to iodine, get a pack of One a Day vitamins that have all of those vitamins and minerals, and please leave the rest for those of us that need them.


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## turbodog (Feb 7, 2022)

xxo said:


> ...molecularly similar to ivermectin...


And gasoline and diesel are molecularly similar as well, while being completely unsuitable for each other's purpose.


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## bykfixer (Feb 7, 2022)

Steering this back on track……

Today my favorite grocery store had "slightly" sweet tea by my favorite brand in stock after a 3 week absence. 
The store brand just doesn't have a taste I like.


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## turbodog (Feb 14, 2022)

Sun chips and my fav coffee are back at kroger.


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## Poppy (Feb 14, 2022)

For a while now; one pound cans of coffee have only 10.4 ounces in them. Coffee is once again plentifully in stock, and is being sold as a loss leader in both of the supermarkets I shop. $1.99 a can for "chockfull of nuts" at one store and Folger's at the other. Folger's caught my eye, as I glanced at it as I walked by, I think they downsized their plastic container.

2 liter bottles of coke or Pepsi are marked as though they are on sale at 2 for $4, but when really on sale are 4 for $5, and with a digital coupon, 4 for $4. Two years ago, they were regularly at $1.39. They are really pushing for people to use the store app on their cel phone to get the digital coupons. A couple of days ago, with a digital coupon, I got 85% lean chopped beef for $2.77 a pound.

Cell service used to be terrible inside the store, so I had to remember to shop at home first if I wanted to use the app. Now that I have a 5G phone, service is good inside the store so that if I see something marked down with a digital coupon, I can actually load the coupon before I go to the check-out. So that's a plus.


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## bykfixer (Feb 14, 2022)

My grocery store had dishwasher powder in stock. That's been out since summer. But my thought there is somebody who orders stuff just didn't order it for a while because it was available at other stores all along. I bought a box despite having some in hopes they'll keep it in stock for others who also prefer the powder kind. 

Pert shampoo seems here to stay. It was gone from other stores too but is back and plentiful. That may have had more to do with the brand being sold than supply issues as it may have taken a period for the new owner to manufactuer it in their facility. 

I think the holes I saw on store shelves had much to do with some big sports event on tv than supply chain issues because the missing items were things folks would prepare for gatherings like 2 litre soda bottles and bags of tater tots.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Feb 22, 2022)

Our main go-to grocery store hasen't had any pulp free Simply Orange Juice for a few weeks, so we've had to settle for the high pulp. I'm pretty sure if I filled a kiddy pool with the stuff I could walk on it.


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## knucklegary (Feb 24, 2022)

Well, if our economy wasn't bad enough for last two years. Now this cr*p!

Tomorrow I am stocking up on cans goods, topping off vehicle tanks, filling up few 5gal gas cans as well


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## Poppy (Feb 24, 2022)

Good idea Gary!
On Tuesday, I tried to fill up my two 5 gallon gas cans, but when I went to my shed, I discovered that I gave one to my son. Yesterday, I bought a new one.

I'll fill it up tomorrow, or over the weekend.

I want to be sure that we have at least two weeks of preps incase there are some successful cyber attacks that shut down stuff that will make life inconvenient


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## turbodog (Feb 25, 2022)

There are already attacks... worldwide attacks right now against the watchguard brand of firewalls. I updated some today as well as added region blocks for the entire non-western world.


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## ampdude (Feb 25, 2022)

My pandemic supply chain is in my closets and my pantry.



> I want to be sure that we have at least two weeks of preps incase there are some successful cyber attacks that shut down stuff that will make life inconvenient



I think that if you just fill your tank when it gets half empty you should be fine. I gave up on filling gas cans, what a pain that is. Hard to fill vehicles with them too. I haven't done anything this week yet since it's been so cold outside. But two of my vehicles already have mostly full tanks.


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## Poppy (Feb 25, 2022)

ampdude said:


> My pandemic supply chain is in my closets and my pantry.
> 
> 
> 
> I think that if you just fill your tank when it gets half empty you should be fine. I gave up on filling gas cans, what a pain that is. Hard to fill vehicles with them too. I haven't done anything this week yet since it's been so cold outside. But two of my vehicles already have mostly full tanks.


@ampdude under normal conditions, I'll let my tank run down to about 1/4 tank before I top it off. Under questionable conditions, like you, I top off sooner. I have three 2 1/2 gallon cans for lawnmower, snowblower, and generators. I never filled the 5 gallon containers, until now, they will give me extended run time for the generator if needed, or God forbid, if we have to get out of Dodge.

During the gas shortage of the 70's, and again during Superstorm Sandy, gas lines for cars were extremely long. People with gas cans were allowed to walk right up to the pump.


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## ampdude (Feb 25, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Good idea Gary!
> On Tuesday, I tried to fill up my two 5 gallon gas cans, but when I went to my shed, I discovered that I gave one to my son. Yesterday, I bought a new one.
> 
> I'll fill it up tomorrow, or over the weekend.
> ...





Poppy said:


> @ampdude under normal conditions, I'll let my tank run down to about 1/4 tank before I top it off. Under questionable conditions, like you, I top off sooner. I have three 2 1/2 gallon cans for lawnmower, snowblower, and generators. I never filled the 5 gallon containers, until now, they will give me extended run time for the generator if needed, or God forbid, if we have to get out of Dodge.
> 
> During the gas shortage of the 70's, and again during Superstorm Sandy, gas lines for cars were extremely long. People with gas cans were allowed to walk right up to the pump.



I was hoping things would not get messed up this soon. I'm also hoping to clean one of my cars out this Spring as soon as it turns warm so I can use it as a backup vehicle. And store another vehicle. Weird times.


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## knucklegary (Feb 25, 2022)

I use 5gal steel military "Jerry" cans as my reserve supply, like you see strapped to Jeeps. Both of those Jerry cans are Mil surplus from the 70's. The gas is transferred into smaller more manageable poly style gas cans for easier handling..

Whatever resources you have, I would prepare for the worse senario especially at the gas pumps


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## Poppy (Feb 25, 2022)

Steel Jerry cans is really the way to go. My "cans" are the poly kind, and I see them expand and contract with changes of temperature. That makes me nervous.


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## knucklegary (Feb 25, 2022)

Yeah, those poly cans make me nervous too. I keep the fuel in backyard shed far away from house. The steel cans are safer in storage.


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## Poppy (Feb 25, 2022)

@knucklegary Thanks for the discussion. 

A couple of days ago I bought a poly one at Lowes, and planned to fill it up today or tomorrow. We have freezing rain this morning, but it is warming up and it will be gone in a another couple of hours. The plastic one I got, got poor reviews, Some said it takes three hands to properly dispense fuel... poor design.

I think instead, I will return it and get a metal one.


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## turbodog (Feb 25, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Steel Jerry cans is really the way to go. My "cans" are the poly kind, and I see them expand and contract with changes of temperature. That makes me nervous.



I've got some 20 years old that are doing just fine as the temp changes from night to day.

*The swelling is a GOOD thing, means the container is airtight... which prevents fuel vapors getting out and water vapor getting in.*


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## bykfixer (Feb 25, 2022)

Gas was 5 cents a gallon less this morning than last evening in my town. No lines at pumps anywhere I went today and prices were stable. One station was 10 cents higher than everybody else, but he's always 10 cents higher being the only one near the exit off the interstate where I work. 

I took advantage of the nickle drop in price and filled up. 

Meanwhile I drove a little slower to get better mpg.


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## knucklegary (Feb 25, 2022)

Here regular went from $4.65 to 4.99.9 gal over night

Why not $5 gal.. Looks like less money out of pocket, idk.. Maybe station owner actually thinks folks won't know that 1/10 cent less amounts to squat?

CA gas taxes alone are near $1.20 per gal


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## PhotonWrangler (Feb 25, 2022)

turbodog said:


> There are already attacks... worldwide attacks right now against the watchguard brand of firewalls. I updated some today as well as added region blocks for the entire non-western world.


Yes. WatchGuard issued a patch for them due to a vulnerability in the update mechanism. I believe those who were compromised had not applied the patch. And there is general suspicion that the threat actors will try to retool this attack for other brands.


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## idleprocess (Feb 25, 2022)

Local Costco was reasonably well-stocked. I took a long hard look at a nominal ~7.5kW 120/240V tri-fuel generator, but was aware of its deficiencies from prior research and had no means to transport it home anyway. Cat litter is something they've not had since the last time I was in. Cereal selection was diminished. No blatant holes in inventory - lousy with TP and bottled water.

I refueled my daily driver Thursday paying something like $3.50/gal for 93 octane. Decide to fill up some of my B-team fuel cans today and pay $3.99/gal for 93 - generating at least one sidelong glance from a rando who's perhaps not paying attention to the news. Got a feeling that the brodozer demo is going to be feeling some pain in the near future.


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## bykfixer (Feb 25, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> Here regular went from $4.65 to 4.99.9 gal over night
> 
> Why not $5 gal.. Looks like less money out of pocket, idk.. Maybe station owner actually thinks folks won't know that 1/10 cent less amounts to squat?
> 
> CA gas taxes alone are near $1.20 per gal


My pop told me the US gubment added the X/10th's to the price of gasoline during the great depression.








Why Is 9/10 Added to Gas Prices?


The practice of tacking 9/10 of a cent on the end of a gas price goes back to a decades-old tax imposed by state and federal governments. It was supposed to expire but never did.




auto.howstuffworks.com


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## Hooked on Fenix (Feb 25, 2022)

Nvidea was hacked (a major silicon chip manufacturer). I would suggest you prepare for more cyber attacks. The last two major ones effected our meat and fuel supplies. That may have been a dry run for Russia. Stock up more if you haven’t already. Cyberattacks could cause a lot of damage to our already screwed up supply chain, especially if they go after critical infrastructure (water, gas, power, internet, phone,transportation, etc.) I hope not much comes of this but apparently the hacker group Anonymous has decided to hack Russia so someone is already busy antagonizing Russia. We’ll have to wait and see what happens.


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## turbodog (Feb 25, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Yes. WatchGuard issued a patch for them due to a vulnerability in the update mechanism. I believe those who were compromised had not applied the patch. And there is general suspicion that the threat actors will try to retool this attack for other brands.



If affected those that had the mgmt open to the outside world which is 1) not the default setting and 2) asking for trouble.

But still... an exploit is an exploit.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Feb 25, 2022)

Here's a reminder of the tracks, gentelmen - *Pandemic supply chain in your area* 

We've all seen what happens when the train gets derailed.


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## bykfixer (Feb 26, 2022)

Not trying to keep the train that left Chicago, bound for Phoenix but is now travelling through New Orleans from getting back on the correct tracks, but it seems much of the supply chain issues have factors outside the pandemic. Ripple affects if you will. 
In other words hitting the off button of a global industrial system all at once caused a series of industrial tsunami's. And now that ripples are occuring it kinda comes down to is the current supply chain issue due to the global pandemic itself or from the ripple effects? 
I suppose one could decide the ripple effects are a pandemic induced problem. And until the ripples are gone it's a pandemic issue. To me some is a post-pandemic change in some ways. Lessons learned? New techniques? Industry correction(s) such as what is now seen as profitable versus what was before? 

I'll cite two examples of what I mean. 
1) It seemed like dishwasher powder disappeared during the pandemic due to so many people staying at home. Yet the industry learned those liquids or pods were hugely profitable versus powder so powder was last on the list of items by a company like Cascade to reproduce once things were back up and running. 
2) Pert shampoo. The brand was popular across America for decades but slowly sales declined. In the height of the pandemic the parent company decided to unload brands like Pert shampoo and keep their more profitable items, so until the buyer of Pert got it flowing from their factories it was gone from shelves seemingly as a direct result of the pandemic. 

My company decided due to the pandemic revenue was taking a big hit. It was not. Well, no more than prior to the 45 days to slow the spread. But while everybody was focused on the perils of the covid 19 outbreak the board of directors figured out ways to slash labor costs and blame it on revenue losses. All they did was toss ballast off a big ship in order to increase fuel mileage. And it worked. A recent "horray for us" email cited record profits and high five's took place all around. 
In the long run much of the ballast tossed overboard was experienced labor. The cost of that, ie ripple effects will be felt for years. 

So in turn that has led to labor shortage, which in turn has led to empty shelves in some places. Some beyond store shelves. Pandemic related changes will probably be permanent in many ways.


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## Poppy (Feb 26, 2022)

Gas prices have been creeping up a bit around here. Three stations near me are at $3.51 for regular.
Costco which is usually 5-10 cents a gallon less than the other stations, last week was at $3.34


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## scout24 (Feb 26, 2022)

Regular unleaded holding at $3.79 9/10 a gallon here. Aquaintance posted a pic putting $599.00 worth of diesel in his rig, 142 gallons. Time to break my TW200 out of winter storage a bit early for the smaller runs to town... 😁


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## knucklegary (Feb 26, 2022)

I miss my bikes gas mileage, tho not all the nut drivers on the roads with their heads up....


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## Poppy (Feb 26, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> I miss my bikes gas mileage, tho not all the nut drivers on the roads with their heads up....


Yeah, @knucklegary I had a Honda 350 for a few years about 50 MPG. Sold it and my van to get a better newer car before going away to school. I had a couple of close calls with it.

Afterwards, I wanted to get a Honda Gold Wing, but I was married with a child on the way, and thought that was a time to be safer. No more bikes for me.


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## PhotonWrangler (Feb 26, 2022)

I've noticed that I haven't seen as many of those cards-full-of-button-cell-assortments in stores. I can still find CR2032s with no problem as well as individually packaged (and overpriced) 384s, etc, just not the large assortments. I think the supply chain issues are producing a distillation of the more popular sellers while the others fall by the waysides.


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## jtr1962 (Feb 26, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Not trying to keep the train that left Chicago, bound for Phoenix but is now travelling through New Orleans from getting back on the correct tracks, but it seems much of the supply chain issues have factors outside the pandemic. Ripple affects if you will.
> In other words hitting the off button of a global industrial system all at once caused a series of industrial tsunami's. And now that ripples are occuring it kinda comes down to is the current supply chain issue due to the global pandemic itself or from the ripple effects?
> I suppose one could decide the ripple effects are a pandemic induced problem. And until the ripples are gone it's a pandemic issue. To me some is a post-pandemic change in some ways. Lessons learned? New techniques? Industry correction(s) such as what is now seen as profitable versus what was before?


I think many books are going to written about this, and the "great resignation" which came later. The issues you mentioned are amplified by people no longer accepting the previous status quo on wages/benefits/working conditions, along with some deciding to drop out of the labor force entirely. Some just retired early, some started businesses, others finally ran the math (something they should have done years ago), and concluded they were working just to pay for a babysitter and a second car they only needed to get to work. The last group were always technically working for nothing. They finally realized it, decided to just stay home and be full-time moms/dads.



bykfixer said:


> I'll cite two examples of what I mean.
> 1) It seemed like dishwasher powder disappeared during the pandemic due to so many people staying at home. Yet the industry learned those liquids or pods were hugely profitable versus powder so powder was last on the list of items by a company like Cascade to reproduce once things were back up and running.
> 2) Pert shampoo. The brand was popular across America for decades but slowly sales declined. In the height of the pandemic the parent company decided to unload brands like Pert shampoo and keep their more profitable items, so until the buyer of Pert got it flowing from their factories it was gone from shelves seemingly as a direct result of the pandemic.


That's been going on for years in one form or another. Try to get a bag of regular popcorn kernals, instead of that microwave popcorn stuff. I can't at my local grocery. Microwave popcorn has way higher profit margins.

Anyone remember brown soap? People on a budget used to buy it. I haven't seen the stuff in years, at least locally.


bykfixer said:


> My company decided due to the pandemic revenue was taking a big hit. It was not. Well, no more than prior to the 45 days to slow the spread. But while everybody was focused on the perils of the covid 19 outbreak the board of directors figured out ways to slash labor costs and blame it on revenue losses. All they did was toss ballast off a big ship in order to increase fuel mileage. And it worked. A recent "horray for us" email cited record profits and high five's took place all around.
> In the long run much of the ballast tossed overboard was experienced labor. The cost of that, ie ripple effects will be felt for years.
> 
> So in turn that has led to labor shortage, which in turn has led to empty shelves in some places. Some beyond store shelves. Pandemic related changes will probably be permanent in many ways.


Interesting that the same companies are now complaining they can't get good people at any price. Maybe they shouldn't have tossed those experienced workers like so much trash.

And yeah, this changed our lives forever in many ways. The old normal is something we're never returning to.


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## Poppy (Feb 26, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Gas prices have been creeping up a bit around here. Three stations near me are at $3.51 for regular.
> Costco which is usually 5-10 cents a gallon less than the other stations, last week was at $3.34


I posted the above this morning before I went out. $3.51 was yesterday's price. Today the same station was at $3.55 when I topped off my tank. Another station up the block was at $3.59.


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## ledbetter (Feb 26, 2022)

As an old ‘80’s song said, “I’ve seen the future, I can’t afford it!”


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## Hooked on Fenix (Feb 27, 2022)

Pepsi at the 99 cent store is up to $2 or $3 for 2. That’s a big jump. It was $1 on my last trip there. Shasta soda still at $1 but shrunk from 2.5 liters to 2 liters.


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## Poppy (Feb 27, 2022)

Today I bought 2 Liter Cokes at a dollar apiece with a digital coupon if I bought five.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Feb 27, 2022)

Bacon was $10 a lb. at Stater Bros. Did pigs become an endangered species since the last time I went shopping? Wonder what it will be like after tomorrow when Russia’s economy collapses when the market opens. Things could get really bad fast for gas prices if they decide to use sanctions/SWIFT to go after Russian oil. Might be a good time to fill up your tank.


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## jtr1962 (Feb 27, 2022)

Honestly, the price of bacon hasn't concerned me in years. Once it passed $1.99 a pound on sale that was too steep for me, and I stopped buying it.

As for oil, in theory OPEC could pick up the slack to keep prices from going into orbit. Whether or not they'll do that is an open question.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Feb 28, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Honestly, the price of bacon hasn't concerned me in years. Once it passed $1.99 a pound on sale that was too steep for me, and I stopped buying it.
> 
> As for oil, in theory OPEC could pick up the slack to keep prices from going into orbit. Whether or not they'll do that is an open question.


In theory, pigs could grow wings and fly and get chopped up when they fly into helicopters causing it to rain bacon. Doesn’t mean there’s any chance it’ll happen. Why are we relying on those who want to kill us for our fuel? Are we so determined to save the planet from global warming we’re giving the people who want to blow it up a monopoly on oil? Sorry to rant. I’m just tired of these high prices and the decisions made that just make things worse.


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## Poppy (Feb 28, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Bacon was $10 a lb. at Stater Bros. Did pigs become an endangered species since the last time I went shopping? Wonder what it will be like after tomorrow when Russia’s economy collapses when the market opens. Things could get really bad fast for gas prices if they decide to use sanctions/SWIFT to go after Russian oil. Might be a good time to fill up your tank.


Stop and Shop, a large chain around here had bacon on sale this week. Actually it has been going on and off sale pretty frequently.


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## jtr1962 (Feb 28, 2022)

Notice they "downsized" the package. $3.33 for 12 oz = $4.44/lb. I guess that's not a horrible price by today's standards, although too steep for me. I was buying precooked bacon from Amazon for a while when I saw it for about $10 for 10.5 oz. 10.5 oz is equivalent to about 5 pounds uncooked. Now it's at least twice that.


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## jtr1962 (Feb 28, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> In theory, pigs could grow wings and fly and get chopped up when they fly into helicopters causing it to rain bacon. Doesn’t mean there’s any chance it’ll happen. Why are we relying on those who want to kill us for our fuel? Are we so determined to save the planet from global warming we’re giving the people who want to blow it up a monopoly on oil? Sorry to rant. I’m just tired of these high prices and the decisions made that just make things worse.


Just like with these other high prices we're seeing, we can attack the problem from the supply side (make more), or the demand side (use less).

Keep in mind commodities like oil are sold on a global market. Even if the US produced twice as much as it uses, that won't mean prices will come down if world demand is high. I hope this crisis gets the world to tackle the demand side. "Climate change" is far from the only reason to do this. In fact, I don't even mention that when discussing getting off oil with people. Besides seeming to trigger some people, I can find more immediate benefits to reducing oil use. Freedom from energy price shocks is one of them. Lower cancer rates would be another. Better to start another thread on this if you want than to discuss it here.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Feb 28, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Better to start another thread on this if you want than to discuss it here.


Honestly, I wish we could. I’m having a harder time not talking about this stuff as it gets more interjected into our daily lives and has real world costs at the grocery store and the gas station. It’s like we are trying to avoid talking about anything considered political, but it affects our jobs, and our food and gas supplies and prices (our kitchen table issues). With talking about all the price hikes in stores and gas spikes, we are ignoring the elephant in the room, the cause of these price hikes. Well now it seems we have a stampeding room full of elephants. Supply chain issues, coronavirus, high gas prices, high food prices, Urea shortage, computer chip shortage, mandate issues, Canada, Ukraine, Russia. It just keeps piling on. And we can’t talk about it because it’s considered political and someone’s bound to get offended. Did anyone notice a certain someone threatened to use nukes yesterday? There are lots of things to discuss. Just not sure we can.


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## idleprocess (Feb 28, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> There are lots of things to discuss. Just not sure we can.


There's a venue for these sorts of things, otherwise these subjects on CPF tend to get threads shut in a hurry.


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## Empath (Feb 28, 2022)

An advisement:

The thread survives when on the topic of "pandemic-supply-chain-in-your-area". It ceases when converted to a war-oil-monetary-political-thread.


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## bykfixer (Feb 28, 2022)

At my work we have had lots of issues with certain supplies so we've figured out alternative products to widen the road we're widening. But it's strange some of the items in short supply. As it turns out it's items from overseas that are not to be found. The stuff made in the US is now starting to show up again or was never in short supply. What started out as pandemic related is no longer the case. 

Meanwhile my local grocery store no longer looks like one in Soviet Russia in the 1980's but instead looks about the same as it looks on any Super Bowl Sunday. Holes in products here and there but overall well stocked.


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## Poppy (Feb 28, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> At my work we have had lots of issues with certain supplies so we've figured out alternative products to widen the road we're widening. But it's strange some of the items in short supply. As it turns out it's items from overseas that are not to be found. The stuff made in the US is now starting to show up again or was never in short supply. What started out as pandemic related is no longer the case.
> 
> Meanwhile my local grocery store no longer looks like one in Soviet Russia in the 1980's but instead looks about the same as it looks on any Super Bowl Sunday. Holes in products here and there but overall well stocked.


That sounds like a good thing!
Years ago an engineer friend of mine told me that the corporation he worked for started getting pipe fittings and valves from a China supplier, because they were cheaper. After a few years of "savings" they noted that valves or fittings that NEVER failed in the past, were now failing. Undoubtedly they were purchasing inferior products, and overall there were no savings because the inferior products caused disruptions in productions, and damage, and needed to be replaced. Eventually the decision was made to use USA made fittings. 

Years later another engineer explained to me that made in the USA had a definition that is deceptive. Machined parts might be machined in a foreign country, but shipped here and assembled here, and that MIGHT be defined as Made in the USA, particularly if it was shipped by a USA owned shipping company.

IMO we need to bring manufacturing back to America. We need to make products from start to finish. Japan's Admiral Yamamoto was quoted as saying after the attack on Pearl Harbor... "I have seen America's industrial might. I am afraid that we have awakened a sleeping giant!"


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## bykfixer (Feb 28, 2022)

We're just glad products slated to arrive in March showed up in January. When the pandemic hit switches were turned off due to lack of demand on the east coast. So projects that were in motion were halted in numerous states. Summer of 021 many cranked back up, and add to the backlog all of the new projects and manufacturers couldn't produce things fast enough. 
Not sure why the foriegn made stuff isn't arriving. Perhaps those are tarrif related? Nevertheless it's just good to see the train in motion again.


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## Poppy (Feb 28, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> <SNIP>
> Not sure why the foriegn made stuff isn't arriving. Perhaps those are tarrif related? Nevertheless it's just good to see the train in motion again.


I'm glad to see that it is local locomotion.


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## knucklegary (Feb 28, 2022)

Loco-motion 🤪


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## turbodog (Mar 2, 2022)

In the world wars, there were shortages of various things... some of which worked out after time, but a lot were alleviated (and made better & cheaper) by finding new sources, methods, etc for making items. This will eventually sort itself out.


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## scout24 (Mar 2, 2022)

Still have a few ration books from WWII that belonged to my great grandparents and grandparents. We've had some minor blips by comparison. They had just come out of the Great Depression though, and doing without wasn't a foreign concept by any means. Hardier stock.


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## bykfixer (Mar 2, 2022)

It's kinda strange how in the last few days it's like "pandemic, oh that thing?, that's so 2021"… but Nyquil is getting scarce on my local store shelves lately.


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## knucklegary (Mar 2, 2022)

I am surprised we're not yet seeing on the shelves nightime sleep meds for the common covid strains..


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## scout24 (Mar 2, 2022)

Byk- As the kids say, "I got u, fam." 🤣 What you need???


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## bykfixer (Mar 2, 2022)

I stocked up. Thanx tho. 

If only it came in 5 gallon buckets……

It's like when Mrs Fixer's favorite french onion dip got scare we stocked up. Last week in the store they were out again. She says "uh oh, we're down to 5 cans…dratz". lol


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## bykfixer (Mar 2, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> I am surprised we're not yet seeing on the shelves nightime sleep meds for the common covid strains..


Coming soon, covid pills next to the night time stuffy head fever so you can rest medicine. 
That is until the kids firgure you can get a buzz by smoking it, then it'll be stashed behind the counter with cigarettes, racey magazines and Trac II razor refills.


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## Poppy (Mar 2, 2022)

Recently new and used cars are costing a premium price due to computer chip shortages. I'm thinking about replacing my car, which is getting a little long in the tooth, but I don't want to pay a premium due to the shortage, only to have it dramatically drop in price once there is no shortage.

So I tried to google information on the chip shortage and I came across this cnet.com article. It's 3 months old, but I think still current. Very informative for me ( who knew very little on the subject). Its a little long, but I think a good read.

It also makes a lot of points about.... manufacture at home, that I fully agree with.









Global chip shortage gives US manufacturing a boost


A proposed $52 billion in US government subsidies would help Intel's planned $100 billion "megafab" in Ohio. Europe, Taiwan and Korea have subsidies of their own.




www.cnet.com


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## Poppy (Mar 2, 2022)

@bykfixer did you post a reply, and then delete it?
It shows up on my phone, but not my desktop.
I wrote to Mr. Ed.


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## bykfixer (Mar 2, 2022)

Yeah, I was kinda off topic so I deleted my earlier response about buying a car in the pandemic supply chain issues thread. Am trying to get my brain to come up with a response that isn't off topic. 
The Mrs and I found a good deal, got a good finance and enjoy our like new car from a stealership. The show room floor was empty, the lot was nearly empty in the new car section. They are strapped for cash. 
We found a car they'd had for 6 months and put some money in their pocket. It's a buyers market if you're patient.


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 2, 2022)

It concerned me when I started to see chip fabs in the US shutting down and sending production overseas years ago. The term "fabless fab" was coined to imply that some of the chip design work might be done in the US but the actual production was being farmed out to offshore factories, partly because of the cost and partly because chip manufacturing involves a lot of nasty chemicals. It's frustrating and embarrassing that it took a chip shortage crisis like this to get manufacturers to wake up and start bringing manufacturing back on shore.


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## Poppy (Mar 2, 2022)

I'm hoping that this pandemic brought home to the American public how dependent we have become to off-shore manufacturing, and that we are willing to pay the price to reduce that dependency. 

I recall, the statement made by Admiral Yamamoto after they bombed Pearl Harbor. "I'm afraid that we have awakened a sleeping Giant". He was US College educated, and traveled the US. He was aware of our industrial might. I'm afraid that much of our industrial might has gone overseas.


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## turbodog (Mar 3, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Recently new and used cars are costing a premium price due to computer chip shortages. I'm thinking about replacing my car, which is getting a little long in the tooth, but I don't want to pay a premium due to the shortage, only to have it dramatically drop in price once there is no shortage.
> 
> So I tried to google information on the chip shortage and I came across this cnet.com article. It's 3 months old, but I think still current. Very informative for me ( who knew very little on the subject). Its a little long, but I think a good read.
> 
> ...



Crux of the issue is they need to move to a modern chip design... one that can run concurrently on existing lines.


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## idleprocess (Mar 3, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Crux of the issue is they need to move to a modern chip design... one that can run concurrently on existing lines.


This. ECUs are on comparably ancient processes relative to what the entire rest of the industry abandoned nearly 20 years ago:


> Moore's law of ever-increasing miniaturization seemingly never reached the automotive industry. Dozens of chips found in everything from electronic brake systems to airbag control units tend to rely on obsolete technology often well over a decade old. These employ comparatively simple transistors that can be anywhere from 45 nanometers to as much as 90 nanometers in size, far too large—and too primitive—to be suitable for today's smartphones.
> 
> When the pandemic hit, replacement demand for big-ticket items like new cars was pushed back while sales of all kinds of home devices soared. When the car market roared back months later, chipmakers had already reallocated their capacity.


_*No one*_ in the fab business wants to be making 90nm or even 45nm. Even the 16nm that intel talks about in the article is relatively long in the tooth.

To be fair to the automakers, an ECU is something that absolutely must be more reliable than a smartphone - and be reliable in the hellscape that is the environment of an engine compartment. In this context, old processes inherently more physically and electrically robust than new processes.

A friend in the industry has indicated that this crisis has lit a fire under the R&D departments who are working swiftly to develop new ECUs utilizing current semiconductor processes. These will be all but clean-sheet designs since the _process size_ factors that lead to reliability won't survive the die shrink.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 3, 2022)

Went to gas up my car yesterday. Cheapest I could find was $4.70/gallon. I’ve been hearing that if we lose Russian oil for whatever reason, it could go to $8/gallon. California is debating cutting out the entire gas tax (51.1cents) for six months. I hope everything turns out okay and not just because I’m broke.


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## knucklegary (Mar 3, 2022)

I hear ya Hooked, our ca tax isn't being utilized properly, in my area anyway. Butte County, just heard they're up to 5.10 gal for regular


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## bykfixer (Mar 3, 2022)

Apparently it's places in the NE US like Boston that use oil from overseas places like Russia so if that gets cut off……uh oh for those folks.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 3, 2022)

Anyone seen these antitheft devices?


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## vicv (Mar 3, 2022)

I have never seen that on food before! Is theft a big deal in your area right now? It’s sad when people need to steal food


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 3, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> I hear ya Hooked, our ca tax isn't being utilized properly, in my area anyway. Butte County, just heard they're up to 5.10 gal for regular


At least California is considering lowering the tax. Washington almost passed a gas tax on every other state that buys their gas. It was just rejected yesterday after huge pushback from other states. If states are getting this desperate for revenue, we’re going to be back to something like the Articles of Confederation (before the Constitution) where every state is looking out for themselves. Different currencies, taxes between states, more chaos. It’s a good sign that Washington didn’t pass the tax, but it’s a sign of the times and the state of our union. Let’s just hope things improve.


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## idleprocess (Mar 3, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Anyone seen these antitheft devices?


Nothing like that on _food_, however I've seen similar on electronics and other higher-value items.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 3, 2022)

Anti theft device? I think I’m going to need to get a better steak knife. Looks like they included a disposable grill with the steaks. Just remove the packaging, throw it on some hot coals, cook, and enjoy. Just need some salt, pepper, A1, and a pair of bolt cutters.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 3, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Crux of the issue is they need to move to a modern chip design... one that can run concurrently on existing lines.


To me this is a golden opportunity for automakers. As an engineer, nothing I like better than doing a redesign with a clean slate using current technology. The gains in functionality, and reduction in size, are typically dramatic. Doubtless a few (or even one) microcontroller(s) can replace the dozens currently in use for all the systems in automobiles. Obviously it will require redesign and recertification, but the end results are well worth it.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 3, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Anyone seen these antitheft devices?


Haven't seen them locally, but honestly at that price the only way it'll get eaten is if it gets stolen. Otherwise it'll rot on the shelf.


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## vicv (Mar 3, 2022)

Really? I wish rib eyes were normally that cheap


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## jtr1962 (Mar 3, 2022)

I'm just thinking in terms of what I spend on food. I'm at $300 a month for two people, and that's with the current higher prices. Then again, I stock up on stuff I use when they have specials. Otherwise, I don't buy it.


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## vicv (Mar 3, 2022)

$1200-$1500 a month here in Canada. That’s for 5 but still. I’ve always been amazed how cheap food is there


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## jtr1962 (Mar 3, 2022)

Yeah, and this is in NYC where many food items cost more. Keep in mind I save a lot with specials. If I bought at regular prices, I'd say I might be spending $500 a month. So $1,200 to $1,500 a month for 5 isn't completely unreasonable.


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## hsa (Mar 3, 2022)

The freshness date is way overdue, it looks good though.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 3, 2022)

hsa said:


> The freshness date is way overdue, it looks good though.


 
That picture was taken from the internet. I don't know anything more about it.


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## Poppy (Mar 5, 2022)

I have a empty 5 gallon gas can in my shed. I think tomorrow, I'll top off my car's gas tank, and fill that one too.

Today I went to a Costco to fill up. I was down to 1/4 tank. The line went through their parking lot out to the street. There was a twenty car line in the street waiting to make a left hand turn into the parking lot. Someone determined to get into the lot blocked two lanes of traffic coming in the other direction. I made a U turn to get out of line. It was just stupid!

The stations near me jumped from about 3.50 to $3.95 over the last two days. About 30 miles away, where I was today, it was generally $4.19. I see that the Costco according to gasbuddy was at $3.71.

I don't think it is a supply shortage, just the price of doing business has gone up. I suppose that it will go higher for reasons NOT to be discussed here.

The wine I drink comes from Chile I wonder will I have to switch to California wine? LOL... that wouldn't be terrible.


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## knucklegary (Mar 5, 2022)

CA hasn't seen $3.71 in three years.
Monday I filled 3 jerry cans, 15 gallons @ $5.30 gal Chevron Supreme 90 octane. My personal reserve sits in cool storage under lock and key


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## turbodog (Mar 5, 2022)

Poppy said:


> ...
> 
> The wine I drink comes from Chile I wonder will I have to switch to California wine? LOL... that wouldn't be terrible.



My wine comes from kroger...


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 5, 2022)

Went for gas today. $5.15 at ARCO in Escondido, CA. Went to Walmart. Bought food seeds for family garden (seemed like a good investment right now). Went to Costco. Wow, prices are high. $17.49 for a 12 pack of beef jerky packs (15 oz. total). $13.99 for the 6 pk. of canned chicken. $23.99 for 5 lbs. of grass fed beef hamburger patties. $9.49 for a pk. of bratwurst. I’m afraid it’s only going to get worse. Hungary banned grain exports and Brazil got cut off from their supply of fertilizer from Russia (as did everyone else and Russia is the world’s largest exporter of urea, it’s used for fertilizer). Brazil is the world’s largest fertilizer importer and leads global exports of soy beans, coffee, and sugar. That Adblue problem I warned about awhile ago might hit us hard soon. Diesel trucks need Adblue to run. Adblue is made from Urea. There was already a shortage of urea before Russia, it’s largest exporter just stopped exporting it. You think food and gas prices are high now, wait until the trucks stop running and there’s no fertilizer to grow the crops.


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## bykfixer (Mar 6, 2022)

Went to store store for grocery's and it looked like pre-pandemic again. Nice.
Prices were unchanged mostly too. There were things missing that are not unusual where demand out paces supply like my favorite brand of turkey sausage links or a brand of fresh made products from North Carolina delivered in a small van from time to time. Oh, and milk shelves were nearly depleted for some reason. Other than that things appeared fairly normal.
Gasoline went up 60 cents a gallon last week. Yikes!! So we stocked up on some items history has shown will spike with fuel prices. No lines at gas pumps though. My governor is promising to remove the grocery tax, which would have saved me about $10.

He's now talking about removing the state gasoline tax too, but saving $3 on a $75 fill up doesn't seem like such a big deal. I used to fill up at a quarter tank but now I fill to 3/4 in order to have about 50 pounds of weight savings for a bit better mpg. I also shed some ballast recently to shave off a bit more weight and boosted the tire pressure to 1 pound over reccomended max for a wee bit less rolling resistance.

I'm also trying out a new (to our area) sports drink called Shine water. Pretty much the same vitamins etc as vitamin water and body armor lite but instead of trying to make it all sweet with fake sweeteners it's tart flavors. I like body armor lite but this Shine in peach- mango and strawberry- lemon take on a more natural flavor thanks to no sugar and minimal sweetener added, which is stevia. During the pandemic there were often large holes in the Gatorade and Powerade section but body armor was rarely in short supply so I made the switch. Never have like vitamin water in low calorie flavors except for the lemon kind but it has caffiene, and l avoid caffiene except on occasion.

Anyway, I hope others out there are having the same luck we are where I live. Ample supplies without huge price spikes.


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## Poppy (Mar 6, 2022)

I just got back from going to get gas. $4.09 at a Sunoco, on my way to Costco where it is $3.71. OMG, there is a two lane line of cars, literally half a mile long to get into the parking lot for the Costco gas. I didn't want to wait an hour or so, so I traveled North. $4.19 at one station, and then $3.99 at a Quick Check. I filled up the tank, and a five gallon container. It cost me an extra five dollars or so, but I just pulled up to the pump, no waiting in line.

Good times are coming!


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## idleprocess (Mar 6, 2022)

I think premium broke $4/gallon in my berg lately. Short of procuring additional jerry cans I'm pretty much full up on gas storage anyway.


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## thermal guy (Mar 6, 2022)

I live in a little hick town in upstate. Gas is $ 3.65 a gallon. everything here has stayed the same price since Covid started. I think that might be because no one here really knows it’s supposed to be bad time😁


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 6, 2022)

Cheapest gas in town is $5.20/gallon. It’s going up 20-30 cents each day.


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## Poppy (Mar 6, 2022)

I went to the food store for this,







and I came out with this...







The store was pretty well stocked. 
The holes I noticed were at the bread isle. It looked like they hadn't gotten a delivery or something. 
Also canned cat food. There was a large barren area. I mentioned it to my daughter, and she said "Oh yeah, there have been a lot of complaints about no cat food on social media."
Frozen foods were plenty, and there was a man restocking it.

While there were still a lot of paper towels to be had, and they were "On Sale" for too much. There was however some emptiness on the shelves. Also there were holes in laundry soap. There was a lot to choose from, so it isn't a problem, unless you are particular, and it happened to be your brand that was missing.


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## chip100t (Mar 6, 2022)

Diesel is £1.65 a litre by me now thats $9.93 a gallon😫


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## pnwoutdoors (Mar 6, 2022)

General supply chain's still a bit strained. Normal "grocery" items have mostly come back to the shelves. Plenty of selection, for most things. 

Can't say the same about lumber, or tools, cars/vehicles. Many dealers of such things have pretty sparse supplies offered for sale.





chip100t said:


> Diesel is £1.65 a litre by me now thats $9.93 a gallon😫



Just paid $4 US a gallon (£0.803 per litre), today, in my town, for 87 octane. 93 octane's almost 25% higher. Can't recall what the diesel's selling for. Ugh.


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## Poppy (Mar 6, 2022)

pnwoutdoors said:


> General supply chain's still a bit strained. Normal "grocery" items have mostly come back to the shelves. Plenty of selection, for most things.
> 
> Can't say the same about lumber, or tools, cars/vehicles. Many dealers of such things have pretty sparse supplies offered for sale.
> 
> ...


I have to agree with you.
Friday night I was speaking with a friend who owns a transmission shop. He said he has a bunch of cars on his lot that he is waiting for parts so he can complete the repair. Two weeks to two months is a common wait for parts that were typically just on the shelf.


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## scout24 (Mar 6, 2022)

$4.29 for 87 octane here today. To add to Poppy's post, my ears on the ground have told me IF parts are available, the costs have skyrocketed. 25-30 percent is often mentioned, +/- depending on specific makes and parts.


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## idleprocess (Mar 6, 2022)

Happened to drive past a number of car lots today and save for the commercial Ford dealer they were looking almost barren.


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## turbodog (Mar 7, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> Happened to drive past a number of car lots today and save for the commercial Ford dealer they were looking almost barren.



Widespread...

Take care of your vehicles right now. NOT a good time to have to buy.


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## idleprocess (Mar 7, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Widespread...


_*Very*_. Was a tad more pronounced last time I had the vehicle serviced - a heck of a lot of sales people walking around conspicuously doing _nothing_.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 7, 2022)

Plan ahead. Drive as little as possible. I know people that drive to the post office every day and drive to a store three times a week.


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## knucklegary (Mar 7, 2022)

We can all ride bicycles like they do in China, or walk everywhere.. just ask @raggie33


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## jtr1962 (Mar 7, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> We can all ride bicycles like they do in China, or walk everywhere.. just ask @raggie33


Seriously, once you get past those first few thousand miles, 10 mile trips on a bike are no big deal. I've ridden to my friend's place in Coney Island a few times. 17 miles each way. It was actually faster than taking the subway (1:10 versus 1:30 or more). Over half of car trips in the US are under 5 miles. Three quarters of them are 10 miles or less. Perfect for biking unless you're carrying a heavy load. And if you regularly do that we have cargo bikes good for a few hundred pounds.

The real game changer though is electric assist. That makes bike trips even out to 20 miles each way feasible for people in average shape.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 7, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Seriously, once you get past those first few thousand miles, 10 mile trips on a bike are no big deal. I've ridden to my friend's place in Coney Island a few times. 17 miles each way. It was actually faster than taking the subway (1:10 versus 1:30 or more). Over half of car trips in the US are under 5 miles. Three quarters of them are 10 miles or less. Perfect for biking unless you're carrying a heavy load. And if you regularly do that we have cargo bikes good for a few hundred pounds.
> 
> The real game changer though is electric assist. That makes bike trips even out to 20 miles each way feasible for people in average shape.


 
NY is not my idea of a place with bicycle-friendly pedestrians and automobiles. 

Profanity Warning


> youtube.com/watch?v=YeNDyTYQbRY


Profanity Warning


----------



## knucklegary (Mar 7, 2022)

I've seen those electric cheater tranny's.. They're pricey suckers.. Guess they have there place


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## Poppy (Mar 7, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> I've seen those electric cheater tranny's.. They're pricey suckers.. Guess they have there place


I'm looking at my gas prices going up to an additional $200 a month. My distances are too great to go to electric assisted bikes, but I do a fair amount of around town driving, and I could use the exercise.


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## knucklegary (Mar 7, 2022)

I just viewed SoCal gas prices zoomed to $7 regular. Up here in north CA in one week increased a buck to $6 gal.. 

..and to make matters worse we're getting ready to switch to "Summer Blend" that traditionally adds approx 0.15 per gal.. 

Yeah, what the heck is another few cents when headed towards $10 gal..

Hey, I thought someone said CA gub planned to eliminate CA state gas "tax" 🥱


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## idleprocess (Mar 7, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Seriously, once you get past those first few thousand miles, 10 mile trips on a bike are no big deal.


Only took a few hundred miles for me to work up to ~20 mile nightly exercise rides. It's not the distance for me that's the issue so much as the region's malicious indifference to cyclists who have the temerity to be on the roads with automobiles.

Here's a stretch of road considered "cycling friendly" per Google maps that I've cycled along before. See that extra ~24" between the outer lane and the curb? That's a reasonable bike lane in the area - so long as you're not on a road bike with ≤25mm tires, and can spot all the road flotsam that ends up in the lane.

Oh look - another nearby "bike lane" ... you know it's a bike lane because there's a bike silhouette on the road and a "may use full lane" sign on the side of the road. I've also ridden along this road on a bike at some risk to my person.

Of course once you get further away from the government buildings this is more typical stuff. I was nearly sideswiped at this very intersection once by someone for no apparent reason.

But hey. I can HTFU if I've got to. Problem - where do I lock up my bike at a local grocery store without drawing unwanted attention and risking damage/vandalism _(such as along the rail to the west or one of the cart corrals)_? Or if I want to hit up some local restaurants? Aldi's can't be bothered - heck even the freaking local Trek bikes franchise (formerly and independent shop) doesn't have a bike rack!

Of course I know full well not to be riding on _any_ those places during periods of significant traffic. Heaven knows that my presence might pose an existential threat to some brodozer in a lifted 2500 series truck. Whenever I did ride regularly it was with a bicycle headlight and a blinky tail light that featuring a non-repeating pattern so as not to hypnotize drivers. I did a test run for "ride your bike to work day" circa 2016 in the evening and while the distance was manageable - despite the many sidestreets and detours I had to take - the route was not one I was willing to ride in any proximity to rush hour _not the least because the return leg had me riding for about a mile along a highway service road_.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 7, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> We can all ride bicycles like they do in China, or walk everywhere.. just ask @raggie33


Not all of us are able to ride bicycles. Me on a bike, is an accident waiting to happen. If you can, great. I’ll do everyone on the road a favor and just say no to bike riding. Trust me, it’s for the best.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 7, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> NY is not my idea of a place with bicycle-friendly pedestrians and automobiles.


Well, I don't live in Manhattan but that's typical stuff you see there. The NYPD especially loves to park in bike lanes. Eastern Queens is a lot less congested and more bike friendly. My 2 or 3 AM rides are usually nice and peaceful.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 7, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> Only took a few hundred miles for me to work up to ~20 mile nightly exercise rides. It's not the distance for me that's the issue so much as the region's malicious indifference to cyclists who have the temerity to be on the roads with automobiles.
> 
> Here's a stretch of road considered "cycling friendly" per Google maps that I've cycled along before. See that extra ~24" between the outer lane and the curb? That's a reasonable bike lane in the area - so long as you're not on a road bike with ≤25mm tires, and can spot all the road flotsam that ends up in the lane.
> 
> ...


For me the big issue is lack of safe bike parking. I can deal with everything else, but not having my bike stolen/vandalized while it's parked.

It seems there's the room where you are for better bike infrastructure but obviously not the will. I'm wondering aloud if sustained high gas prices will cause a little progress in that direction.

Drivers are a$$holes everywhere. I've noticed how much worse it's gotten in the last two decades with the proliferation of huge SUVs (which I prefer to call UAVs-urban assault vehicles).


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## knucklegary (Mar 8, 2022)

You guys won't be dodging many huge road hogs by this Summer. There might not be many large trucks on the roadways as well


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## SCEMan (Mar 8, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> Hey, I thought someone said CA gub planned to eliminate CA state gas "tax" 🥱


Nah. Newsom needs to add to the $40 billion surplus. Plus, you'll be riding the bullet train soon anyway... 😂


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## knucklegary (Mar 8, 2022)

Oh yes, the CA billion $$ train to nowhere..


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 8, 2022)

If CA eliminates the entire gas tax, that’s only about 51 cents. That’ll get eaten up in about 2-3 days of gas price increases. Then the price will continue to go up. The problem is supply. If we don’t start working on our own domestic supply, prices will not come down. Dependency on foreign countries has become our Achilles heel. We should have learned this lesson during the shipping container crisis.


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## knucklegary (Mar 8, 2022)

Best deal found this week at CVS.. 🐬🇺🇲

Tuna selling for cheaper than a gallon of fuel today, but what what about in the weeks and months to come?


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## turbodog (Mar 8, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> ... Dependency on foreign countries has become our Achilles heel. We should have learned this lesson during the shipping container crisis.



An advanced economy _has_ to depend on trade.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 8, 2022)

turbodog said:


> An advanced economy _has_ to depend on trade.


A country so dependent on foreign sources of fuel, minerals, and technology that it cripples it’s military and critical infrastructure when deprived of them won’t be an advanced economy for long. Time to start doing more domestic for everything.


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## knucklegary (Mar 8, 2022)

Agreed, and that includes reopening Keystone XL NOW!


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## jtr1962 (Mar 8, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> A country so dependent on foreign sources of fuel, minerals, and technology that it cripples it’s military and critical infrastructure when deprived of them won’t be an advanced economy for long. Time to start doing more domestic for everything.


Part of that will have to include massively automating things. As good as "Made In America" sounds, we don't have enough people able and willing to do the jobs this will entail. However, automation is getting to the point where it costs less to produce domestically via automation, versus outsourcing production to countries with cheaper labor. That wasn't the case even five years ago.

The other part is simply consume less. Half of what we make ends up in landfill within 5 years. Aim to produce more durable, more easily repaired goods which last a lifetime if cared for. Sort of like we used to do.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 8, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> Agreed, and that includes reopening Keystone XL NOW!











Ten reasons why Keystone XL doesn't matter so much any more | Oil Sands Magazine


President Biden wasted no time this week reversing his predecessor's Executive Orders, including the Keystone XL (KXL) Presidential Permit. Although the move was widely expected, federal and provincial politicians still went on the defensive, issuing stern warnings and vowing retaliatory action .




www.oilsandsmagazine.com


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## idleprocess (Mar 8, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> foreign sources of fuel


_Availability _isn't the problem so much as price. Smalltime crude wells in the CONUS, shale, and tar sand taps open at higher price levels due to their greater cost of production relative to larger-scale crude wells that do the bulk of production.

But talk about reducing our dependence on crude oil for transportation use cases and you get pushback, thus ... here we remain.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> minerals


There are minerals that are unfeasible to extract within our borders or aren't available to us at all.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> technology


This has been a cry since at least the 1980s when the big fear was Japanese dominance of the electronics industry.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> Time to start doing more domestic for everything.


We don't have a planned economy. The tools for artificially maintaining _strategic industries_ have a history of being ... economically inefficient ... at the very least.


This is all veering into subjects best discussed at _another venue_.


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## knucklegary (Mar 8, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Ten reasons why Keystone XL doesn't matter so much any more | Oil Sands Magazine
> 
> 
> President Biden wasted no time this week reversing his predecessor's Executive Orders, including the Keystone XL (KXL) Presidential Permit. Although the move was widely expected, federal and provincial politicians still went on the defensive, issuing stern warnings and vowing retaliatory action .
> ...


The price per barrel of crude back in Jan '22 was $55 barrel.. Google how much is it today?


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## jtr1962 (Mar 8, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> The price per barrel of crude back in Jan '22 was $55 barrel.. Google how much is it today?


So? Those cheerleading for Keystone XL obviously don't live near a pipeline or near a fracking site. If there were only upsides to Keystone XL nobody would have tried to stop it.

Let's transition to using less oil. We'll always need some as feedstocks for plastics or other things. That amount can easily be produced domestically. Just let's stop burning the stuff for energy. If anything, this latest turn of current events should wake us up.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 8, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> So? Those cheerleading for Keystone XL obviously don't live near a pipeline or near a fracking site. If there were only upsides to Keystone XL nobody would have tried to stop it.
> 
> Let's transition to using less oil. We'll always need some as feedstocks for plastics or other things. That amount can easily be produced domestically. Just let's stop burning the stuff for energy. If anything, this latest turn of current events should wake us up.


 
Our home has an oil furnace, however, we utilize our pellet stove for almost all (over 99%) of our heating needs. The oil furnace needs much much less maintenance and produces a really nice warmth. It reaches the bones not just your skin. Nevertheless, oil is a necessity for producing so many things. Heating your home isn't one of them.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 8, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Nevertheless, oil is a necessity for producing so many things. Heating your home isn't one of them.


Exactly. Oil is great stuff. Even Charlie Munger said that. And that's why we should use it for things besides energy.

Is your oil heating system hot water? That would likely explain your comment about "it reaches the bones not just your skin". Mine is also, but it's easy enough to keep the hot water radiators and replace the heat source with a geothermal heat pump. I'm looking into that now. The furnace is 70 years old. It's been on borrowed time for a while anyway.

I'm also looking into better insulation (thread to follow on that relatively soon).

BTW, I'm hearing lots of jokes lately that this latest turn of current events is the best thing to happen to clean energy in decades, perhaps ever. It might even result in a renaissance of nuclear power. The US can be a world leader in that area.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 8, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Exactly. Oil is great stuff. Even Charlie Munger said that. And that's why we should use it for things besides energy.
> 
> BTW, is your oil heating system hot water? That would likely explain your comment about "it reaches the bones not just your skin". Mine is also, but it's easy enough to keep the hot water radiators and replace the heat source with a geothermal heat pump. I'm looking into that now. The furnace is 70 years old. It's been on borrowed time for a while anyway.
> 
> ...


 
Great idea.  This subject-matter (heating / insulation) is best left to a new thread.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 8, 2022)

I’d be fine if we started including more nuclear in the mix. It’s our fastest and currently only viable way to a clean energy grid that can handle the extra load of all those new electric cars. However, if we started building them as fast as we could now, it would take about 5 years to complete the first ones. We need fuel now to replace what we lost, not 5-10 year construction projects. Let’s start with getting the fuel to keep us from descending into chaos and start on everything else (nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, batteries, electric cars, clean coal, etc.). This isn’t a my way or your way situation. We have to throw everything that will stick at this problem and hopefully we’ll have that clean energy grid in the end.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 8, 2022)

I don't disagree with any one point but I'd add conservation to the list so we need to get as little oil/gas as possible to replace what's lost from Russia. The EU is going to have a harder time replacing those fuels than we will, so draconian conservation measures have to be on the table. I might suggest mandating remote work for anyone who can do it, consolidating trips, using non-automotive modes whenever feasible. Medium term let's please move away from these comically huge vehicles we've been buying for the last two decades. That applies whether they're ICE or electric. There is a limited supply of lithium. The batteries for one of those monsters could power several more reasonably-sized vehicles. Let's start using aerodynamics again. We seem to have forgotten that with the proliferation of boxes on our roads. Aerodynamics essentially gives us range or better mpg for free just by using a more slippery shape. That's it for now. We're already veering dangerously off-topic.

Back on topic, last heating oil delivery was $5.48/gallon plus tax. And I noticed the local grocery has a lot fewer specials than they used to. Most things are in stock, just I get sticker shock looking at a lot of stuff.


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## idleprocess (Mar 8, 2022)

93 octane was $4.60/gallon today at the adjacent gas station today in the north Dallas area - and that was but shortly after the announcement that the US will be halting Russian petroleum shipments.


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## knucklegary (Mar 8, 2022)

Didn't we hear our fearless leader today say he won't stand for price gouging


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## turbodog (Mar 8, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> A country so dependent on foreign sources of fuel, minerals, and technology that it cripples it’s military and critical infrastructure when deprived of them won’t be an advanced economy for long. Time to start doing more domestic for everything.



Well this includes about every one you can name, or would you prefer that foreign nations NOT buy our Boeing planes, Deere tractors, or MS software? And I'm sort of fond of rum...


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## turbodog (Mar 8, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> Didn't we hear our fearless leader today say he won't stand for price gouging



You really want to open the politics pandora's box?


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## knucklegary (Mar 9, 2022)

My bad... Just ignore my comment 🙈🙉🙊


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 9, 2022)

Today, the U.S. chose to not buy Russian oil, natural gas, or coal. Russia also recently stopped exporting all fertilizers including urea which is used in Adblue that runs our modern diesel vehicles. We’re in for some rough times ahead. Less gas for our cars, less fuel to power the electrical grid and heating, and less fuel additives to run our diesel fleet. Strap in. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.


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## bykfixer (Mar 9, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> Great idea.  This subject-matter (heating / insulation) is best left to a new thread.


Agreed. 





Energy : Production, Storage, Efficiency, Solutions


+ As per nbp suggestion ~ A general thread on energy production in your area, individual & regional solutions & advancements.




www.candlepowerforums.com


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## knucklegary (Mar 9, 2022)

I am heading back to grocery store to stock up on my favorites before they disappear, again, or become unaffordable


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 10, 2022)

Saw pork chops on sale for $1.49/ lb. and corned beef brisket for $1.99/lb. (limit 1) at Stater Bros. At least there are some sales. Heard Albertsons, Ralph’s, and Vons may be going on strike very soon in southern CA. Might cause a few more headaches. We’ll have to wait and see how things play out.


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## turbodog (Mar 10, 2022)

Saw gas for 3.79 yesterday. Pulled to pump. Sold out. Got premium for only 4.4X though.


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## vicv (Mar 10, 2022)

$2 a litter here. So if you use imperial gallons, that’s $7.56 a gallon. If us gallons, it $8.30 a gallon


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## bykfixer (Mar 11, 2022)

Gasoline was $4.29 in my area yesterday. Today $4.15.
Yup it dropped 14 cents over night. And I fueled up yesterday thinking $4.29 was a good price compared to what is expected to come. 

Not knowing the futures of oil had fallen a lot yesterday I bought fuel. I still had plenty but topped up while it was "ONLY" $4.29/ gallon. 

Today a barrel is $109 where it had been over $130 recently. 

It is seemingly expected to fall below $100 again in the not so distant future as the forces that be open up spigots that were closed or throttled way back during the pandemic in the US and other parts of the planet. The demand was way down all through the year of the dumpster fire so many spigots were turned off in order to keep prices stable. 

It seems a meeting March 31st will either end with production increasing to ease the crunch on the world economy or a bunch of trillionaires seeing if a barrel will top the all time highest price of over $140 back in 2008. Time will tell but lots of investors have their trigger finger on the sell button today.


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## idleprocess (Mar 11, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Gasoline was $4.29 in my area yesterday. Today $4.15.
> [...]
> I still had plenty but topped up while it was "ONLY" $4.29/ gallon.


Eh, that's apt to be a soon-forgotten _rounding error_.


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## bykfixer (Mar 13, 2022)

Turning back to supply chain from post pandemic gas prices……

The grocery store returned to normal mostly. For some reason there's a gap in Ocean Spray beverages, especially the diet version(s). But on schedule (as in every 3rd week) my favorite turkey sausage breakfast links were there. It's $1 less than the other brand but I prefer the flavor. It'll probably be sold out next week along with the other brand.

No price spikes were noticed on most items and the price of cow is back to reasonable. Pre-made burgers for about $1 each where they had gone up as high as $15 for 4. Nice New York strips for $8 etc. I don't dig on cow much anymore after buying a quarter of a cow back in the scariest part of the pandemic when grocery store shelves looked like 1980's soviet Russia some weeks. Heck I didn't back then either but I went in with some others to make sure we could have beef when we wanted it. 

Oh, I suppose by April we'll see big spikes in prices, but for now thank goodness they are not in my town (yet).


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## vicv (Mar 13, 2022)

Ya I haven’t seen much change. Here burgers have gone up. Probably by 100% on average. But ground beef isn’t much higher? I have no idea. Honestly it’s been two years now and besides the toilet paper craze in the beginning, I haven’t seen much change as far as prices for goods are concerned.


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## Poppy (Mar 13, 2022)

One thing that is on sale as Saint paddy’s day is near.


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 13, 2022)

Well here we are. Ford has decided that they're not waiting any longer for the chip shortage to be resolved so they're selling vehicles with some functions disabled because of missing chips. They promise to make these vehicles whole within a year.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 13, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Well here we are. Ford has decided that they're not waiting any longer for the chip shortage to be resolved so they're selling vehicles with some functions disabled because of missing chips. They promise to make these vehicles whole within a year.


 
Good plan.


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## turbodog (Mar 13, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Well here we are. Ford has decided that they're not waiting any longer for the chip shortage to be resolved so they're selling vehicles with some functions disabled because of missing chips. They promise to make these vehicles whole within a year.



I'd consider a BMW without a touchscreen an upgrade.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 13, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Well here we are. Ford has decided that they're not waiting any longer for the chip shortage to be resolved so they're selling vehicles with some functions disabled because of missing chips. They promise to make these vehicles whole within a year.


They should have did that from day one, unless it was something mission critical. I think most people would rather have a new car without a functional entertainment system than not at all.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 13, 2022)

Let me get this straight. Gas prices are sky high. We’re being told to just buy an electric vehicle. And to top it off, the vehicle manufacturers are selling these cars unfinished without some of the computer chips with the promise that you’ll get them in a year, probably from China. What could possibly go wrong?


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## idleprocess (Mar 13, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> What could possibly go wrong?


Begging additional questions.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 13, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> Begging additional questions.


No, that was rhetorical. I’ll leave it at that.


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## turbodog (Mar 14, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> They should have did that from day one, unless it was something mission critical. I think most people would rather have a new car without a functional entertainment system than not at all.



People's relationship with buying a new car is rarely based on rational thought. I'm betting they want the entertainment system.

Local Lexus dealer... (only one in state BTW) had but a single vehicle in stock the other day.


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## nbp (Mar 14, 2022)

They could remove most of the “features” from most appliances and vehicles etc. and put that money into making it more reliable and I would be perfectly happy. I don’t need 68 settings and bluetooth on my washing machine, but I don’t think it is unreasonable to want it to last more than 6 years before a fatal malfunction sends it to the landfill. I think we could be more prepared to handle supply chain issues if all our crap could actually be repaired anymore instead of always having to have stores full of new crap to replace it. 

I’m too young to talk so old. Lol


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 14, 2022)

If you’re going to buy a car with no sound system, and no air conditioning and hope you’ll have all the amenities after a year, you might as well get a horse. With a horse, you don’t have to fill it up or plug it in, but it will always have plenty of gas.


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## knucklegary (Mar 14, 2022)

HoF Here in CA you'd be arrested for illegal transmission of methane gas 

Talking about gas I bought a head of cabbage and a beauty corned beef brisket along with fresh carrots and those little read potatoes.. Hard to pass up at Raleys, they have some fair prices this week


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## Poppy (Mar 14, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> If you’re going to buy a car with no sound system, and no air conditioning and hope you’ll have all the amenities after a year, you might as well get a horse. With a horse, you don’t have to fill it up or plug it in, but it will always have plenty of gas.


From what I read, Ford has sound systems, and they have air conditioning. The problem was that the Rear CONTROLS for the REAR AC is not functional, but the REAR AC can be controlled from the front dash. Really that is not a real inconvenience; doesn't even rate as a first world problem.


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## scout24 (Mar 14, 2022)

Hard to justify $70k for a truck when not everything works properly.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 14, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> HoF Here in CA you'd be arrested for illegal transmission of methane gas


Maybe if you were riding a cow. They haven’t cracked down on horses yet in CA. Let’s hope they don’t start. Maybe put your horse on a low fiber diet just to be on the safe side. If they want to enforce something like that, I pity the poor soul who has to walk behind the horse to take electronic emissions tests.


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## bykfixer (Mar 14, 2022)

scout24 said:


> Hard to justify $70k for a truck when not everything works properly.


But but but you get a $50 credit……


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## knucklegary (Mar 14, 2022)

Do you think for 70k the dealerships will send your new truck off with a full tank of fuel? Yeah right!


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## Poppy (Mar 14, 2022)

It's hard to justify $70,000 for any vehicle that starts to depreciate the moment you drive it off of the lot.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 14, 2022)

scout24 said:


> Hard to justify $70k for a truck when not everything works properly.


 
My better 3/4s and I purchased our first house for $75k in 1985. We still live in the house and have a little over an acre of property. $70k for a pickup truck. Get outta here!


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## KITROBASKIN (Mar 14, 2022)

Poppy said:


> It's hard to justify $70,000 for any vehicle that starts to depreciate the moment you drive it off of the lot.


Our 2019 Tacoma is worth as much as when we paid cash for it over 2 years ago. Crazy times.

Ukraine fears apparently spurred folks to buy all of the compressed hay at our feed store. Our rabbits have needs too.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 14, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> My better 3/4s and I purchased our first house for $75k in 1985. We still live in the house and have a little over an acre of property. $70k for a pickup truck. Get outta here!


My parent's house cost $52K and it has 18 doors! Yeah, I totally get sticker shock at some of the vehicle prices now.


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## Poppy (Mar 14, 2022)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Our 2019 Tacoma is worth as much as when we paid cash for it over 2 years ago. Crazy times.
> 
> Ukraine fears apparently spurred folks to buy all of the compressed hay at our feed store. Our rabbits have needs too.


Yeah... crazy times for sure!

Last year I bought a trailer hitch cargo carrier from a guy who had a one year old pick up. At that time he commented that he could sell it for $10,000 more than what he paid for it new. Shocked, I asked why? He said computer chip shortage, there aren't any available.

So there you have it... supply and demand.

Let's hope we never get caught with our pants down again.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 14, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> My parent's house cost $52K and it has 18 doors! Yeah, I totally get sticker shock at some of the vehicle prices now.



Twice a year, when I write the property tax check, I'm reminded that my home purchasing paradigm is way behind the times .


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 14, 2022)

Poppy said:


> .....So there you have it... supply and demand.
> 
> Let's hope we never get caught with our pants down again.



Right now, my hope is we'll be able to pull our pants up. First things first.


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## scout24 (Mar 14, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> My better 3/4s and I purchased our first house for $75k in 1985. We still live in the house and have a little over an acre of property. $70k for a pickup truck. Get outta here!


$78,015 for my first back around '96... I purchased my current Tundra for 40k back in Aug 21. New, base model, 4x4. You can keep the fancy stuff.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 14, 2022)

I don't begrudge anyone spending $55k on a new truck. They're awesome! I'm just sayin that kinda money for a truck or 1/2m for a house is beyond my paradigm.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 14, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> I don't begrudge anyone spending $55k on a new truck. They're awesome! I'm just sayin that kinda money for a truck or 1/2m for a house is beyond my paradigm.


Same here. Even 30 years ago, average rents were 3/4 of my take-home pay in NYC. So of course I opted to stay with my folks. No other real options. My neighbors kids were in the same boat. I don't understand how anyone can afford these prices. You have to make $200K just to barely get by these days in some parts of the country.


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## bykfixer (Mar 14, 2022)

My company has a contract with Ford and ever since Ford started making F-150 bodies out of alluminum if we need a truck now we end up with a Chevy. Since we get a big discount from Ford they never seem to have what we want in stock. 

One year they said "no more Chevy's" and I was given a list of options and told to pick out the options I wanted around ground hog day 2018 and it was Halloween before it arrived. On the dealer lot it would have been a $55k truck but the company paid $43k for it. Hell I wouldn't have paid $30k for it.


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## idleprocess (Mar 14, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> I'm just sayin that kinda money for a truck or 1/2m for a house is beyond my paradigm.


Same. I feel like I'm being priced out of the market not by people with more money than me but a need to engage in _ruinous_ levels of conspicuous consumption. I also _need_ a vehicle due to the realities of the built environment in most of the US and of course need a place to live.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 18, 2022)

I think prices may go up a bit more in the stores. Yesterday, there was a massive fire at a Walmart distribution center in Plainfield, Indiana. The entire building was destroyed. The 1,000 employees managed to get out okay.


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## scout24 (Mar 18, 2022)

Byk- The joys of "low bid..." You'll pay less, we'll get it to you eventually! HoF- I'm amazed and glad that nobody was hurt in that fire, but wow was it a big facility! I'm not sure where it sits on the distribution ladder, (city, county, state, regional) but it can't help price and availability going forward that's for sure. I'll have to do some digging and see what was kept there, too. Merchandise, groceries, or both? It's 6am and I haven't had coffee yet. Working on it...


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## Poppy (Mar 18, 2022)

How is California doing with the container ship back log? It's not in the news, so I guess they are all caught up?


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## bykfixer (Mar 18, 2022)

My neighbor who works construction said concrete pipe is difficult to obtain still. He said they have gone to using HDPE pipe for storm sewers but now that is becoming hard to obtain. 

It's as much as a history catching up as a pandemic thing but is related to the pandemic. See, a few years ago there was a few different pipe making companies around us but the big fish eats the little fish thing occured. Then a giant fish ate all the fish and there was one supplier. A few "companies" remained but all owned by Moby D¡ck if you will. 

The pandemic occurs. Giant company decides to cut costs. Cuts staff and blames it on the virus. Turns off a bunch of switches in the factories. Trouble is our state did not disallow construction projects to proceed like some nearby. Folks were reassigned to here but now that their states have resumed construction everybody is short of workers now. 

Combine that with tariffs and things taking place not suited to be discussed in this thread and you have a raw material shortage from before the recent events involving a country invading another. Things that began in 2019.

Turn factory switches back on……"click, click… nothing happens. See factories don't like being shut off so when they hit the on switch stuff broke. Stuff that……wait for it…… is in short supply. 

The factory is running again, raw materials are arriving and a shrunken crew are working their butts off to fill orders. Orders that have multiplied since a bunch of stimulous money from 08 has hit the local coffers. That and an explosion of apartment complexes. They can't build those things fast enough where I live. 

Perfect storm? Nah not really. Just a bunch of bad decisions coming back around and affecting commerce below the Mason Dixon line.


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## knucklegary (Mar 18, 2022)

LA and LB ports are easing up but container ships are still lined up across the Pacific..

In Long Beach empty containers are stacked up waiting to be returned. Port has run out of room and using the streets of San Pedro to stow containers. 

Maybe empty containers can be used for the enormous homeless population in Socal..

A good way to ship them back to their own States?


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## bykfixer (Mar 18, 2022)

Our local port has so many empty containers they sell them at times. Trouble is you have to buy 100 at a time. To buy one means you have to buy it from the folks who buy 100 or more then pay to have it delivered. Can be pricey but they last a good long time with no maintenance. 

They make great storage sheds. We see them on farms and construction sites. 

The craziest thing I see is truck load after truck load of cigarettes being loaded onto gigantic military cargo planes at the airport that are headed to Russia where their "mafias" are rumored to distribute them all over Europe.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 18, 2022)

Poppy said:


> How is California doing with the container ship back log? It's not in the news, so I guess they are all caught up?


China is going through another round of covid lockdowns. It's affecting the computer chip manufacturing.

They are also shutting down ports.

On the plus side, it should ease up the backlog of container ships, at least in the short run.


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## ledbetter (Mar 18, 2022)

Japan’s recent earthquake has also shut down a number of plants, including Toyota chip producers.


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## Poppy (Mar 18, 2022)

I just bought a pound of Oscar Meyer Bacon with a coupon for $3.99 regular price $10.49 !!!

Some things just don't add up.


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## idleprocess (Mar 18, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Some things just don't add up.


Actually it generally does add up. _Loss leader_ is a textbook promotion: fire sale a hiogh-visibility item to stimulate the purchase of other (more profitable, lower prominence) merchandise at the same time so the merchant still turns a profit on the sale. Often requires a minimum additional purchase, is exclusive of other promotions, or is something like hot dogs while complimentary goods - buns, condiments, beer, charcoal - are full price if not _marked up_.


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## PacificMoon (Mar 18, 2022)

Canada, U.S. shippers brace for possible CP Rail strike, latest supply-chain disruption
Canadian Pacific to lock out employees in 72 hours if talks with union fail
"Canadian Pacific Railway (CP.TO) will lock out its employees in 72 hours if there is no agreement with a union, the company said on Wednesday, a move that would potentially disrupt the movement of grain, potash and coal at a time of soaring commodity prices."
"Canada, Russia and Belarus are among the main sources for the world's potash, a key input required for producing nitrogen-containing fertilizers."
Canadian Pacific Railway's potential lockout would leave shippers few options
"Days ahead of a possible shutdown of Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (CP.TO) due to a labor dispute, manufacturers are rushing to move autos and chemicals, Nutrien Ltd (NTR.TO) is pre-positioning fertilizer in the United States, and grain handlers are asking farmers to hold off on crop deliveries.
"Shippers say there are no significant workaround solutions in a vast country that depends primarily on two railroads to haul freight, and already has a trucker shortage.

The vessel lineup in Vancouver, Canada's biggest port, is 20% larger than it was before severe British Columbia floods late last year, said Mark Hemmes, president of Quorum Corp, a company that monitors Prairie grain handling and transportation for the Canadian government.
"
"A longer shutdown, however, would force Nutrien to consider slowing potash production, Seitz said, even as the company wants to boost output to satisfy soaring global demand. read more"

"We find this situation particularly frustrating, given the need for crop nutrients in the world," he said. "If (the shutdown) is measured beyond days, we could find ourselves in a situation where we have to throttle back production."


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 18, 2022)

We have another upcoming supply chain problem in the southwestern U.S. On Tuesday, Lake Powell hit a record low water level of 3,525 feet. This was an agreed upon level at which they would restrict water flowing downstream along the Colorado River to preserve the lake at a level where it could produce hydroelectric power. If the lake drops another 35 feet, the hydroelectric plant at the Glen Canyon Dam, which provides 5 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, enough for 5 million people will stop working. Limiting water downstream also causes trouble for those serviced by Hoover Dam at Lake Mead. So far it looks like Lake Powell might recover a little from winter snow runoff in the short term, but summer is not looking good. If this gets bad, we're talking about a loss of electricity and water supply at the largest (Lake Mead) and second largest (Lake Powell) reservoirs in the United States within the next one to three years. No power, no water, no businesses operating.


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## turbodog (Mar 18, 2022)

My neighbor works for Nucor Steel. He says they get a significant percent of raw materials from Ukraine/Russia region. They have already cut production and are turning more to scrap to make up the deficit. Expect scrap prices to go up as well as steel.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 19, 2022)

Looks like Spain and much of Europe is experiencing a record breaking dust storm from the Sahara. This is known in Europe as a sirocco which means blood rain. When it rains, the reddish dust mixes with the rain and makes it appear to rain blood. It turns the sky orange and gives the appearance somewhat like that of nuclear winter. But don’t be alarmed, it’s a naturally occurring phenomenon. No nukes went off. Anyway, the dry air and dust and darkening of the sun could hurt the crops and probably won’t be that great for their water supply either.


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## PacificMoon (Mar 19, 2022)

> gives the appearance somewhat like that of nuclear winter.


chilling timing certainly...


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 19, 2022)

PacificMoon said:


> chilling timing certainly...


Luckily, I think it will be a short lived event. But it will melt the snowpack giving less available water later in the year. It has grounded some flights. The dust that gets on and in everything is going to clog up a lot of air filters. The mud that rains down is going to leave quite a mess. I do think a lot of people in Europe might be freaking out seeing what looks like nuclear winter followed by it raining blood (or what looks like it) during what they are already dealing with.


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## nbp (Mar 19, 2022)

I was at the The Hoover Dam a couple of weeks ago and took pics looking up river/lake from the top of the dam. That white line is the water line when the lake is full. It is like 125 ft low I believe.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 19, 2022)

I remember they used to do cloud seeding when I was a kid. Not sure how many potentially rain-bearing clouds are in areas where they might be useful but it's certainly worth looking at.

This thread is getting really depressing. Might as well add to the gloom and doom:



How a global nickel shortage could disrupt the electric vehicle industry



Elon Musk, we need you! Asteroids have lots of nickel in them. Get SpaceX to tow one into orbit.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 19, 2022)

Was at Costco. Eggs were $4.29 for 2 dozen and $8.99 a 5 dozen flat. Honey Nut Cheerios were $8.99. Dunkin Donuts coffee was $21. Prices are getting really high. Beware of people getting more desperate. Many are ready to snap. Some have started drilling holes in people’s gas tanks or stealing directly from the gas stations in broad daylight to steal gas. When prices get too high or supplies are limited, people will steal and leave everyone else with nothing to get. Stay safe. Watch out for those you love. Things are starting to get scary.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 19, 2022)




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## Poppy (Mar 19, 2022)

eggs in my area at stop and shop, although they are usually a little cheaper at Shoprite.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 19, 2022)

Looks like the water situation in the western U.S. is getting worse. Due to the drought, on Friday, California Department of Water Resources just reduced it’s water allocation for the state from 15% of that requested down to 5%. This is going to make it hard on everyone. That may not even include farmers who have been allocated nothing during much of the drought. I guess we’ll see how long we last receiving 5% of our needed water supply. Don’t count on hydroelectric to last for long.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 19, 2022)

I hope they're at least prohibiting lawn watering statewide. It would be sheer madness to allow wasting water like that in the midst of a severe drought.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 19, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> I hope they're at least prohibiting lawn watering statewide. It would be sheer madness to allow wasting water like that in the midst of a severe drought.


I’m sure they are, but they’re also letting the water flow right back out into the ocean to attempt to save a two inch fish (Delta Smelt). That wasn’t enough for the Salmon though, last year the water was too warm so they trucked and flew the salmon to the ocean. Our state needs to prioritize and plan better. No amount of conservation works if the actions of those in charge counter all of your hard fought gains.


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## nbp (Mar 20, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Was at Costco. Eggs were $4.29 for 2 dozen and $8.99 a 5 dozen flat. Honey Nut Cheerios were $8.99. Dunkin Donuts coffee was $21. Prices are getting really high. Beware of people getting more desperate. Many are ready to snap. Some have started drilling holes in people’s gas tanks or stealing directly from the gas stations in broad daylight to steal gas. When prices get too high or supplies are limited, people will steal and leave everyone else with nothing to get. Stay safe. Watch out for those you love. Things are starting to get scary.



Even before all this CA was absurdly expensive compared to basically everywhere else. Time to leave that state. Or don't... Californians moving out are driving up housing costs in other nearby states. LOL. I don't think your store accurately represents the general state of affairs for most people in the country. Yes, prices have gone up across the board, but not like you are seeing. Milk at Meijer is still $2.75, 1 lb bags of almond trail mix and Chobani greek yogurt for $6, chia seeds for $5, ground chicken for $3.50/lb, 48 oz kombucha for 7.99. Watch for sale items 'cuz why not, but I haven't really stopped buying anything yet. I dunno.


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## idleprocess (Mar 20, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> I’m sure they are, but they’re also letting the water flow right back out into the ocean to attempt to save a two inch fish (Delta Smelt).


The _water cycle_ serves purposes other than humans' desire to live in places that lacks sufficient accessible water to support their numbers. The Delta Smelt aside, river mouths and estuaries are key habitats for numerous species.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> Our state needs to prioritize and plan better.


SoCal is a desert. It's only through the herculean efforts of the various aqueducts that it's been able to swell to a population many multiples of what its meager natural water resources can support. The Colorado river is indifferent to the terms of the Colorado River Compact, whose allocations we are realizing are based on generous estimates of flow _during wetter times_. Should the drought continue, the _political economy_ of water allocations from the Colorado River (and perhaps the other aqueducts serving SoCal) are likely to soon turn extremely ugly.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 20, 2022)

We also got hit with a free range animal law that took effect this year driving up the price of meat, dairy, and eggs. None of the pork producers were in compliance so bacon really shot up. May not effect the rest of the country as much now, but California is a big market. When they pass these laws, other states comply to not lose market share. Then it spreads to your state.


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## RWT1405 (Mar 20, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> We have another upcoming supply chain problem in the southwestern U.S. On Tuesday, Lake Powell hit a record low water level of 3,525 feet. This was an agreed upon level at which they would restrict water flowing downstream along the Colorado River to preserve the lake at a level where it could produce hydroelectric power. If the lake drops another 35 feet, the hydroelectric plant at the Glen Canyon Dam, which provides 5 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, enough for 5 million people will stop working. Limiting water downstream also causes trouble for those serviced by Hoover Dam at Lake Mead. So far it looks like Lake Powell might recover a little from winter snow runoff in the short term, but summer is not looking good.* If this gets bad, we're talking about a loss of electricity and water supply at the largest (Lake Mead) and second largest (Lake Powell) reservoirs in the United States within the next one to three years. No power, no water, no businesses operating.*



This is but one reason why all this talk about EV's (all-electrical vehicles) makes me laugh.

In certain parts of the country, the demand placed on the Power (electrical) grid can barely be handled (doesn't Calif. have "rolling blackouts" due to being unable to handle demand now?), and the "Greenies" want to add even more/greater demand to it.

I have read that some states would need to increase their electricity production by more than 50% (Maine comes to my mind), in order to handle the increased demand caused by EV's (I believe that percentage was based on EV's being 80% of all vehicles).


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## idleprocess (Mar 20, 2022)

RWT1405 said:


> This is but one reason why all this talk about EV's (all-electrical vehicles) makes me laugh.
> 
> In certain parts of the country, the demand placed on the Power (electrical) grid can barely be handled (doesn't Calif. have "rolling blackouts" due to being unable to handle demand now?), and the "Greenies" want to add even more/greater demand to it.
> 
> I have read that some states would need to increase their electricity production by more than 50% (Maine comes to my mind), in order to handle the increased demand caused by EV's (I believe that percentage was based on EV's being 80% of all vehicles).


Electricity is one of the foundations of 21st century life. Regardless of any one application - i.e. EVs, heat pumps displacing gas furnaces, a new megalomart - it needs to be reliable and production needs to expand steadily as the population grows.

One of CA's major issues causing blackouts is the chronic failure of one of the major utilities to maintain their transmission lines, thus under windy conditions they have to shut them down to prevent the lines from sparking and starting wildfires. Curiously, this same utility has never failed to pay out a dividend to its shareholders.

It's going to be a very slow roll to 80% EV adoption. Utilities will have plenty of time to plan this change. But there's also a silver lining to this: most EV charging is done at home overnight when there's ample capacity idling away for lack of demand, thus I seriously doubt that EV's will necessitate an enormous increase in generation capacity.


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## bykfixer (Mar 20, 2022)

Thinking not much demand for power during the daytime via electric vehicles is not understanding just how many vehicles are on the road at any given time. Sure the daily commuter car will. The one that gets a person to and from a job not far from home, certainly. That happens in predictable waves. But all those vehicles on the interstate all day every day, trucks, vans, dump trucks, cement mixers, buses, vacationers, etc. Millions upon millions per day across the US would be sitting idle for hours waiting to charge. Either that or they'd have to carry a trailer to haul around enough batteries to keep it going.

Now factor in road building equipment, trains, garbage trucks, recycle trucks, lawn care equipment, just to name a few. The power companies can't just magically be ready for all that. And airplanes. One cargo ship crossing the ocean probably uses as much fuel as half the cars in America each day. How many batteries would they require?

Maybe if the US is serious my kids will live to see it. Just to upgrade all those existing the lines will take more than a decade. Factor in enviromental groups fighting the upgrades in courts will result in huge delays. Those people won't set around while power companies install millions of miles of upraded infrastructure. They're fighting wind mills and solar farms for Pete's sake.

The petroleum combustable engine may be on the way out but I don't see them completely gone for at least a couple of decades. Not unless something better than electric batteries is used. And if we quit using so much plastic that would greatly reduce fossil fuel consumption to make the stuff with.

My local grocery store had a whole bunch of Orville's popcorn kernels in a jar but no microwave type. Not even a hole for that stuff. That area was filled with pre-cooked kind in plastic bags like Cheetos come in.


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## idleprocess (Mar 20, 2022)

@bykfixer I'm not sure that we fundamentally disagree on much.



bykfixer said:


> Thinking not much demand for power during the daytime via electric vehicles is not understanding just how many vehicles are on the road at any given time. Sure the daily commuter car will. The one that gets a person to and from a job not far from home, certainly.


The present use case for _individual_ EVs is commuters living in metro areas averaging <50 miles per day total with the bulk spending >8 hours a day parked at work and another >12 hours a day parked at home - both opportunities to slow-charge giving more than enough range for a typical day's driving. That's an enormous addressable market that will take some time to grow to the point that it demands significant investment in electrical infrastructure.

Some can make them work for highway trips using fast chargers taking ~30 minute breaks every 2-4 hours, but that's not going to cut it for most work travel.



bykfixer said:


> But all those vehicles on the interstate all day every day, trucks, vans, dump trucks, cement mixers, buses, vacationers, etc. Millions upon millions per day across the US would be sitting idle for hours waiting to charge.


Of those: busses, [box] trucks, and vans are the main candidates for EVs at present time - running local routes at that. For all the press that the Tesla Semi got, it's still a prototype whose capabilities remain unknown so it's not something those outside of the shield of NDAs can talk about - however we assume that should it see the light of day it will operate on shorter distribution routes rather than long-haul OTR.



bykfixer said:


> Now factor in road building equipment, trains, garbage trucks, recycle trucks, lawn care equipment, just to name a few.


The existing stock of diesel-powered equipment is unlikely to be replaced in any great hurry. To the extent that they are I expect slow adoption of _mains_-powered electric heavy construction equipment supplemented by relatively small battery packs to smooth peak demand and for _short_ operation in the absence of shore power. For lighter-duty earthmoving, Volvo already offers battery-electric equipment with battery packs smaller than pretty much every EV sold nowadays.

Lawn care equipment ... stay tuned to CA's impending prohibition on the sale of new SORE (Small Off Road Engine)-powered equipment starting no earlier than 2024. I expect that the law's _cost-effective and technologically feasible_ provision will see a number of exceptions made to the prohibition for lack of suitable electric tools with reasonable performance and cost parity.

Garbage and recycle trucks are prime candidates for electrification - short repeatable routes primarily at city street speeds with predictable evening downtime to recharge.



bykfixer said:


> And airplanes. One cargo ship crossing the ocean probably uses as much fuel as half the cars in America each day. How many batteries would they require?


_No one_ is seriously proposing deploying battery-electric airliners nor trans-oceanic cargo vessels at scale. Neither will have the net cargo capacity nor range necessary using present - nor even plausible in-development - battery technologies. Hydrogen perhaps - as a Jet-A substitute for airliners or to combust in fuel cells powering motors for cargo ships - but that's fraught with significant additional capital expenses and reductions in net capacity for both.



bykfixer said:


> Maybe if the US is serious my kids will live to see it. Just to upgrade all those existing the lines will take more than a decade.


It's likely going to take appreciably more than a decade for EVs to get to 50% market share for new vehicles in the _automobile_ market for the commuting/family-car use case that they're well-suited for. And for all the concern about EV uptake there's everything else the grid does with steadily-escalating demand that has to be met anyway.



bykfixer said:


> Factor in enviromental groups fighting the upgrades in courts will result in huge delays. Those people won't set around while power companies install millions of miles of upraded infrastructure. They're fighting wind mills and solar farms for Pete's sake.


There's always someone with an opinion getting airtime on TV - or YouTube. But once you get past the causeheads the reality is that we're slowly transitioning away from fossil fuels for transportation and process heat in industry - which will absolutely require more electrical production capacity. Outside of a few loudmouths pretty much noone wants to return to _circa 1850_ levels of industry and per-capita energy consumption. NIMBY-ism has been and will likely continue to be a thing for the foreseeable future - be it power infrastructure, a new cell tower, a water tower, etc.



bykfixer said:


> The petroleum combustable engine may be on the way out but I don't see them completely gone for at least a couple of decades.


Nor do I - I expect the internal combustion engine to be in routine service for the rest of my life. We live in a world of cautious uptake of new durable goods with limited ability to produce them and demand that existing durables function for their economic lifespan; even if it was possible to ignore those limits, there are performance limitations in a number of situations that makes substitute technologies unsuitable.


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 20, 2022)

There seems to be a (hopefully temporary) shortage of lactose-reduced milk in my immediate area.


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## bykfixer (Mar 20, 2022)

Back at the height of phase 1 of the pandemic that was almost always the only milk my local grocery had not run out of. Any time I wanted skim milk that was the only kind they'd have for a few months. Regular, 2% and 1% were hit or miss but skim was only available in the reduced lactose version but a quart was like $5. 

Can't say what the supply is like near us now, as the conventional milk is pretty much back in stock at my local grocer these days.

Minus the price I did like the reduced lactose milk though.


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## turbodog (Mar 20, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> ...
> We live in a world of cautious uptake of new durable goods with *limited ability* to produce them ...



Yup. The US Dept of Labor's recent data is not good. Between covid causing people to retire early, covid killing people, boomer retirement picking up, and a declining fertility rate... expect labor shortages for a LONG time.


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## aznsx (Mar 20, 2022)

nbp said:


> I was at the The Hoover Dam a couple of weeks ago and took pics looking up river/lake from the top of the dam. That white line is the water line when the lake is full. It is like 125 ft low I believe.



Cool place to visit / tour.

And then there's Glen Canyon (second largest U.S. hydro gen dam). If Lake Powell drops just a bit further, the lights could go out for some people. I rather hope it hits those who've tried so hard to kill off the nuclear power industry first...but life never seems to work that way









Low water at Lake Powell raises power generation worries


Lake Powell has fallen below a key water level amid a megadrought that has impacted the western U.S. since 2000.




www.hydroreview.com


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## aznsx (Mar 20, 2022)

aznsx said:


> Cool place to visit / tour.
> 
> And then there's Glen Canyon (second largest U.S. hydro gen dam). If Lake Powell drops just a bit further, the lights could go out for some people. I rather hope it hits those who've tried so hard to kill off the nuclear power industry first...but life never seems to work that way
> 
> ...



I neglected to mention that one could see the stacks of the giant Navajo coal gen plant from there (Page) - the one that was recently shut down.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 20, 2022)

I took mom to the Lewis/McChord commissary this morning. Everything was fully stocked except chicken sans bones. Today was the first time since C19 began that the chicken section wasnt's packed. Now as for the bone in chicken section, it was also fully stocked. Weird.


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 20, 2022)

I guess Covid must've hit the BCR also


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Mar 20, 2022)

1983! You must've fired-up Mr. Peabody's Wayback machine to find that one.


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 21, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> 1983! You must've fired-up Mr. Peabody's Wayback machine to find that one.


Indeed, Sherman!


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 21, 2022)

Those appear to be free range boneless chickens. They have all the space they need to run around. They charge extra for that.


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## PacificMoon (Mar 22, 2022)

> (doesn't Calif. have "rolling blackouts" due to being unable to handle demand now?)


It does during the summer in certain areas during heatwaves, but it is not (yet?) like in some third-world countries where rolling blackouts (as in you only get 8 hours of electricity a day) year-round are "normal". Otherwise I agree that the California grid is not ready for a mass rollout of EVs. I do think it is time for EVs but unfortunately the politicians and executives have not been very forward-thinking so that leaves us little choice...


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## PacificMoon (Mar 22, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> One of CA's major issues causing blackouts is the chronic failure of one of the major utilities to maintain their transmission lines, thus under windy conditions they have to shut them down to prevent the lines from sparking and starting wildfires. Curiously, this same utility has never failed to pay out a dividend to its shareholders.


That is true, they're called "Public Safety Power Shutoffs" _but_ they are not the same as rolling blackouts, which have also occurred during heatwaves, at least in some areas. PSPS also occur during the fall (towards the end of the fire season), when rolling blackouts do not occur since there are no heatwaves anymore.


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## idleprocess (Mar 22, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Yup. The US Dept of Labor's recent data is not good. Between covid causing people to retire early, covid killing people, boomer retirement picking up, and a declining fertility rate... expect labor shortages for a LONG time.


Independent of trends in the labor market, production potential for EV's is significantly lower than ICE vehicles and will remain so for some time to come.


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## Splitrail (Mar 22, 2022)

Toilet paper is plentiful.
Money to buy it isn't.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 22, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> Independent of trends in the labor market, production potential for EV's is significantly lower than ICE vehicles and will remain so for some time to come.


Mostly due to the lithium and nickel issues. Sodium-ion is already nearing production. Cost is competitive or lower than lithium-ion.

That said, we could alleviate current production problems with EVs by transitioning to more normal sized vehicles. A small or medium sized highly aerodynamic sedan only needs 1/4 to 1/2 the battery capacity for any given range, relative to the huge SUVs currently on the market.


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## Poppy (Mar 22, 2022)

We went from big cars, to large SUVs, to small SUVs, and smaller cars, then the small SUVs started getting larger again. I think gas prices, and income buying power is the driving force behind the different size vehicles. 

My next vehicle will probably be an SUV, or pickup. Although I drive a big car, it is still a car, and the standard height of the seat is such that my eye level is directly in line with the headlights of pickups, and SUVs.


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## idleprocess (Mar 22, 2022)

Poppy said:


> My next vehicle will probably be an SUV, or pickup. Although I drive a big car, it is still a car, and the standard height of the seat is such that my eye level is directly in line with the headlights of pickups, and SUVs.


I can relate. My present 'daily - a Subaru WRX - is a tad low to the ground. The process of entry is more of a _choreographed fall_ than a controlled sitting motion. My next 'daily will be something more accommodating of ingress and egress for a taller fella like myself.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 22, 2022)

A Chevron oil refinery in California is now on strike. That’s going to keep driving up gas prices here. Ralphs, Vons, and Albertsons employees are voting now on whether or not to strike in Southern California. If they strike, it’s just more supply chain problems to add to the pile.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 22, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> I can relate. My present 'daily - a Subaru WRX - is a tad low to the ground. The process of entry is more of a _choreographed fall_ than a controlled sitting motion. My next 'daily will be something more accommodating of ingress and egress for a taller fella like myself.


I'm thinking here of something like the reverse of kneeling buses, which lower themselves to make it easier for people to board. What if the vehicle lifted itself to make ingress/egress easier? Aero drag = drag coefficient times frontal area. Lots of energy saved with shorter vehicles. They're also easier to make the drag coefficient lower on. Seems like a lift system is the way around making taller vehicles to avoid the need to do gymnastics just to get in and out.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 23, 2022)

It’s been announced by the President that we need to prepare for cyberattacks in the U.S. Apparently, a list of 16 critical infrastructure items was shared last summer with a foreign adversary with a warning that those were off limits. Telling the bad guy where to best strike us didn’t work out so well. Please plan accordingly as this could screw up the supply chain more than it is if this threat materializes. Hopefully, we have better cyber security this time and this amounts to nothing.


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## LEDphile (Mar 23, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> I'm thinking here of something like the reverse of kneeling buses, which lower themselves to make it easier for people to board. What if the vehicle lifted itself to make ingress/egress easier?


Some SUVs with air suspensions offer a "lower" mode to make getting in and out (and loading cargo) easier. But I'm not aware of any cars with air suspensions raising up for similar reasons. I suspect that the suspensions don't have enough travel to make it worthwhile. And of course, the suspension height does nothing about hitting your head on the top of the doorjamb because the roof of the vehicle is too close to the seat cushion.


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## Poppy (Mar 23, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> I can relate. My present 'daily - a Subaru WRX - is a tad low to the ground. The process of entry is more of a _choreographed fall_ than a controlled sitting motion. My next 'daily will be something more accommodating of ingress and egress for a taller fella like myself.


@idleprocess choreographed fall ... that's hilarious 

My issue isn't so much getting in and out of the bat mobile, or the "General" although due to a bad hip, I also am not as graceful as I once was. My issue is that there is no standard headlight height. Many now with their low beams ON have the same affect as HIGH beams of other vehicles in giving a glaring effect to oncoming traffic.

I see that some buses' headlights are as low as standard passenger vehicles, by design. I believe that federal legislation should be enacted setting a standard height of lights, as they did back in the early 1970's for bumper height, and 3-5 mph bumper systems.


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## bykfixer (Mar 23, 2022)

The sedan is on the way out it seems. Often times the complaint is because you can't see to back out of (or pull out of) parking spaces due to all the SUV and pickup trucks lining the parking spaces.
Even the modern police car is an SUV.

I had an Explorer for work for a while and lowered the seats to the height of a sedan but raised it back up because I kept missing things due to being so low. I preferred the lower seat height for climbing in and out but the view was compromised. I asked for my pickup truck back.


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## idleprocess (Mar 23, 2022)

Poppy said:


> My issue is that there is no standard headlight height. Many now with their low beams ON have the same affect as HIGH beams of other vehicles in giving a glaring effect to oncoming traffic.


Living in a regional capital of *Truckistan* this is my daily reality. The WRX's auto-darkening rearview mirror helps, as does the prevalence of _divided_ 2- and 6-lane arterial roads around here. Side-view mirrors ... yeah, that's not always a fun time.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 25, 2022)

There was an attack on a Saudi oil refinery today. This is going to increase gas and diesel prices even more. If you need gas, fill up now before the price shoots up again.


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## jtr1962 (Mar 25, 2022)

And the chip shortage could potentially get worse:









Exclusive: Russia's attack on Ukraine halts half of world's neon output for chips


Ukraine's two leading suppliers of neon, which produce about half the world's supply of the key ingredient for making chips, have halted their operations as Moscow has sharpened its attack on the country, threatening to raise prices and aggravate the semiconductor shortage.




www.reuters.com





Someone please wake me up and tell me I'm not in a B disaster movie!


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## turbodog (Mar 25, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> Living in a regional capital of *Truckistan* this is my daily reality. The WRX's auto-darkening rearview mirror helps, as does the prevalence of _divided_ 2- and 6-lane arterial roads around here. Side-view mirrors ... yeah, that's not always a fun time.



I changed my side mirrors after seeing an article about professional drivers saying side mirrors should be aimed much more 'out' so you can see behind you ONLY with the rearview. This lets you have no blind spot and clearly see a vehicle all the time as it moves from behind, to beside/back, to beside (where you can see it through the window).

Felt 'blind' for a day or two, but 1) no more headlights and 2) can see vehicles continuously now.


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## Poppy (Mar 25, 2022)

I have my driver side, side mirror aimed out so that I can see the front of the vehicle next to me until I can see it out my window in my peripheral vision. The same for the passenger side mirror. The passenger side is more challenging to remove the headlight because of its convex shape. I still see em.

Sometimes, I'll aim the side mirrors down a bit, and then have to move my head lower to check for traffic. I am always checking my mirrors, so that I pretty much, almost always, have situational awareness of drivers near me. I am surprised sometimes by the drivers who are going 20 mph faster than everyone else, and runs up to the bumper of a vehicle before rapidly changing lanes, and then he is suddenly right next to me speeding on by.


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## bykfixer (Mar 25, 2022)

I've always kept a 2" dome at the upper outter area of my side mirrors to see a vehicle in the blind spots while having the mirrors aimed somewhat down so I can see stripes of the parking lot spaces I back into.

Helps with super beams behind me as well. Low and behold my Ford truck arrived with 2" blind spot mirrors in the upper far corners of the side mirrors. Hmmm, why didn't I think of that?

In the meantime I feel the earth tremble nearly every Sunday afternoon lately from a rock quarry about 20 miles away blasts granite to make gravel. Used to be pre-pandemic it would happen a few times a year. During the pandemic it was a rare thing as construction had slowed some but now……if the quarry that used to crush granite into various gradations of gravels Monday theu Friday 7a to 4:30p didn't add a second shift to the crushers folks who call asking for 1000 tons of #57 or similar would hear "sorry it's a two month wait" instead "sorry it's a two week wait". Pre-pandemic it was "we'll get it to you today"……


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## Hooked on Fenix (Mar 26, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Someone please wake me up and tell me I'm not in a B disaster movie!


Sorry, you’re not in a B disaster movie. Hollywood challenged God to come up with the most horrible disaster imaginable that they could make a movie about. God told them to take notes on all the plot twists and try to keep up. We’re living out that movie now. Hopefully it’s over soon. I’m getting tired of it myself.


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## knucklegary (Mar 26, 2022)

Agreed, please change the channel, I've had enough of this bs..


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## PhotonWrangler (Mar 26, 2022)




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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 5, 2022)

Just got back from a Costco run. All I can say is ouch, my wallet hurts. $12.99 for 8 cans of Cattle Drive Chili (was $10.79). $13.49 for an 8 pack of 6 oz cans of olives. $10.79 for 12 pack cans of green beans or corn (was below $10). $15.99 for 2.5 lbs. of cashews. Pack of Bratwurst was $9.49 (that’s the second price increase in a couple months. Used to be $6.69, then $8.49). At least they had fresh bone in chicken thighs available and still at 99 cents per lb. The bird flu is killing off a lot of chickens this year so it’s harder to get cheap meat. I’m sure these are bargains compared to the grocery stores, but it still really hurts those of us stuck living on a small budget. These prices are not sustainable. Either we’re going to run out of food (lack of supply is why prices are so high), or a lot of people are going to starve because they can’t afford it. I don’t want to be around that many starving, desperate, angry people demanding a handout when the food runs out.


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## jtr1962 (Apr 5, 2022)

I've already seen a few people crying when I've gone to the grocery store. Never saw that before. If food prices keep up it's going to be rice, beans, pasta, and Ramen soup for me.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 5, 2022)

My Dad got breakfast at McDonald’s this morning. It cost him $9 for a couple biscuits, hash brown, and coffee. When we drove away, the guy driving in front of us rolled down their window and gave their McDonald’s food to a homeless person in the parking lot. It’s good to see there are still charitable people, but there are so many people living on the street. Things are not looking good.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Apr 5, 2022)

People in the know are predicting food prices will continue to rise another 10 to 15% in the comming months. 

But at least we don't have to contend with a certain person's mean tweets. So there's that.


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## jtr1962 (Apr 5, 2022)

If it's only another 10% or 15% I'll be very happy. I was fearing prices could double or triple over a relatively short period. While we personally have a comfortable margin for now, that won't be the case if prices keep shooting up. And I realize a lot of people are hurting badly right now.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 5, 2022)

Aldi is raising prices of some of it’s food products 20-50%. Things like meats, oils, wheat products (pasta, bread, flour), and butter are getting pricy.

At least the Albertsons, Vons, and Ralph’s grocery store strike seems like it might not happen now.


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## tango44 (Apr 6, 2022)

Chains supply problems???

I CALL IT LAZY PEOPLE!

The Covid excuse is perfect for all the ones that don't want to work but want a check...


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## bykfixer (Apr 6, 2022)

I think there's just a little more to it than that. 
Maybe just a little.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 6, 2022)

Over a million people have now died in the U.S. due to Covid. On top of that, people have been forcibly removed from the workforce if they didn’t or couldn’t get their Covid shots. A lot of people were nearing retirement age and chose to retire early rather than to put up with all of that stuff. All of that has left a huge loss of skilled labor in the market that may take years or decades to regain. Without skilled labor to train new employees, there are only so many new employees a company can take on. This has nothing to do with people being lazy. It has to do with trying to recover from a pandemic coupled with being crippled by mandates that are reducing our workforce. On top of that, we have a bird flu epidemic killing off the chickens driving up the price of chicken and eggs. We have Covid coming back in China which has shut down their ports again. We have what’s going on with Russia driving up oil, fertilizer, and wheat prices. Brazil isn’t getting their fertilizer from Russia so that’s driving up prices of coffee, soy, sugar, etc.. There was a railroad strike in Canada affecting fertilizer as well. Rebels from Yemen attacked a Saudi Oil Refinery driving up the price of diesel. With so many fuel and fertilizer shortages, urea, a type of fertilizer used in Adblue used to run Diesel engines is in short supply. If the trucks have a hard time getting the product to the stores, the prices go up.


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## knucklegary (Apr 6, 2022)

tango44 said:


> Chains supply problems???
> 
> I CALL IT LAZY PEOPLE!
> 
> The Covid excuse is perfect for all the ones that don't want to work but want a check...


Good news for all you Blue Diamond almond lovers, CA warehouses are packed full.. 
The bad news is they're having distribution issues. Are there any truck drivers wanting a job?


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## bykfixer (Apr 6, 2022)

I need to take depression meds after reading some of the posts in this thread.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 6, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> I need to take depression meds after reading some of the posts in this thread.


Better get them while you can.


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## jtr1962 (Apr 6, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> I need to take depression meds after reading some of the posts in this thread.


Same here.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 6, 2022)

This thread and life in general have been depressing lately. Thought I'd try something different for a change. Here's a song to lift your spirits when life kicks you down and help you through the difficult times. It's called What Faith Can Do by Kutless:


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## KITROBASKIN (Apr 7, 2022)

Lyrics to aforementioned song:

Everybody falls sometimes
Gotta find the strength to rise
From the ashes and make a new beginning
Anyone can feel the ache
You think it's more than you can take
But you're stronger, stronger than you know
Don't you give up now
The sun will soon be shining
You gotta face the clouds
To find the silver lining
I've seen dreams that move the mountains
Hope that doesn't ever end
Even when the sky is falling
I've seen miracles just happen
Silent prayers get answered
Broken hearts become brand new
That's what faith can do
It doesn't matter what you've heard
Impossible is not a word
It's just a reason for someone not to try
Everybody's scared to death
When they decide to take that step
Out on the water
It'll be alright
Life is so much more
Than what your eyes are seeing
You will find your way
If you keep believing
I've seen dreams that move the mountains
Hope that doesn't ever end
Even when the sky is falling
I've seen miracles just happen
Silent prayers get answered
Broken hearts become brand new
That's what faith can do
Overcome the odds
You do have a chance
When the world says you can't
It'll tell you that you can!
I've seen dreams that move the mountains
Hope that doesn't ever end
Even when the sky is falling
I've seen miracles just happen
Silent prayers get answered
Broken hearts become brand new
That's what faith can do
That's what faith can do!
Even if you fall sometimes
You will have the strength to rise


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## fuyume (Apr 7, 2022)

tango44 said:


> Chains supply problems???
> 
> I CALL IT LAZY PEOPLE!
> 
> The Covid excuse is perfect for all the ones that don't want to work but want a check...


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 7, 2022)

For those of you living in China, I'm sorry you have to go through the Covid lockdowns all over again. I hope you stay safe and don't run out of food. Here's a news article of their current situation in Shanghai:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-61019975

For those of us living in the U.S., with China locked down, expect the supply disruptions to get really bad. Stock up now while you can. We're about to run out of food and supplies.


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## knucklegary (Apr 7, 2022)

HoF,, I just came from a Vons clone super market called Safeway.. There's plenty k9 milk bones available today. They are not only pretty tasty, they'll also keep your teeth clean "removes unwanted tartar"


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 7, 2022)

Thanks, but I think I’ll eat some of the pets before I eat the pet food. The chickens are first. Then whatever squirrels and rabbits are roaming the backyard. Hope I never have to eat a cat or dog. Some climbers in Yosemite lived on pet food in the early days until a plane full of weed crashed and they cashed out on the drugs. I know pet food has to be safe for human consumption, but I don’t know if I could stomach it. Unfortunately, today there is actually a shortage on pet food because some of the ingredients are being diverted into products for people food.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Apr 7, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> HoF,, I just came from a Vons clone super market called Safeway.. There's plenty k9 milk bones available today. They are not only pretty tasty, they'll also keep your teeth clean "removes unwanted tartar"



Removes unwanted tartar?! Are you kidding? I slather my fish in that stuff. It's delicious!


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## jtr1962 (Apr 7, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> HoF,, I just came from a Vons clone super market called Safeway.. There's plenty k9 milk bones available today. They are not only pretty tasty, they'll also keep your teeth clean "removes unwanted tartar"


I would prefer kitty food but that's in short supply now. Has been for a while actually.


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## jtr1962 (Apr 7, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Thanks, but I think I’ll eat some of the pets before I eat the pet food. The chickens are first. Then whatever squirrels and rabbits are roaming the backyard. Hope I never have to eat a cat or dog. Some climbers in Yosemite lived on pet food in the early days until a plane full of weed crashed and they cashed out on the drugs. I know pet food has to be safe for human consumption, but I don’t know if I could stomach it. Unfortunately, today there is actually a shortage on pet food because some of the ingredients are being diverted into products for people food.


The only local "wildlife" by me worth eating would be the raccoons. Stray cats generally don't have much meat. And squirrels even less. I had two nice fat raccoons who got into the garage last year. If things get really bad I'll try to entice them back.


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## knucklegary (Apr 7, 2022)

I wonder what my neighbors nasty Chihuahua would taste like wrapped in a burrito


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Apr 7, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> I wonder what my neighbors nasty Chihuahua would taste like wrapped in a burrito


 
Mexican food?


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## knucklegary (Apr 7, 2022)

Indigestion


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 7, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> The only local "wildlife" by me worth eating would be the raccoons. Stray cats generally don't have much meat. And squirrels even less. I had two nice fat raccoons who got into the garage last year. If things get really bad I'll try to entice them back.


Mmmm, trash pandas. There’s got to be plenty of meat on those suckers. Careful though, they’re viscous egg sucking rascals. They are not afraid to attack. They would rank very high on things I’d rather kill and eat instead of a beloved pet.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 7, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> I wonder what my neighbors nasty Chihuahua would taste like wrapped in a burrito


Taco Bell


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 9, 2022)

Looks like all of the Westfield malls are being sold off by 2023. That’ll mean more businesses disappearing. I guess with people trying to afford food and gas, they don’t have anything left for shopping at the mall. Westfield owns 24 malls. In San Diego County that includes North County in Escondido, CA, Mission Valley in San Diego, CA, Plaza Bonita in National City, CA, and UTC in La Jolla, CA. Some of these malls do have Targets and Walmarts so that leaves fewer shopping options once they are gone.


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## PhotonWrangler (Apr 9, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Looks like all of the Westfield malls are being sold off by 2023. That’ll mean more businesses disappearing. I guess with people trying to afford food and gas, they don’t have anything left for shopping at the mall. Westfield owns 24 malls. In San Diego County that includes North County in Escondido, CA, Mission Valley in San Diego, CA, Plaza Bonita in National City, CA, and UTC in La Jolla, CA. Some of these malls do have Targets and Walmarts so that leaves fewer shopping options once they are gone.


Several indoor malls in my area have either closed or turned into outdoor strip malls, usually after the big anchor stores close. Part of that is because of the rise of online shopping and part of it is that some indoor malls were having problems with gangs using them as their personal hangouts. This has been happening since well before Covid.


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## knucklegary (Apr 9, 2022)

There is a mall in my area where half is closed up and a remaining section open. Entering the mall in the closed "dead" section and walking through to the alive stores is somewhat eerie feeling, like out of a apocalyptic zombie movie


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## PhotonWrangler (Apr 9, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> There is a mall in my area where half is closed up and a remaining section open. Entering the mall in the closed "dead" section and walking through to the alive stores is somewhat eerie feeling, like out of a apocalyptic zombie movie


We had one exactly like that in my area also. The "dead" end of the mall felt like a rotting appendage that was still attached to the "living" part. It was definitely eerie. It eventually closed completely. You can't keep a big mall going with only a handful of trinket stores and hair/nail salons. I miss that place. it had a humble elegance to it during it's heyday.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 9, 2022)

Things are definitely going downhill. Heard that Mission Bay Park in San Diego County, CA has been having a lot of shootings and stabbings in the area. That is where our church would take kids down to the beach for youth group beach trips. Now you can’t go to the beach or ride a rollercoaster without worrying about your safety. That area has all of the tourist restaurants and attractions in the area. It’s right by Sea World too.

Here's the news story:


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 9, 2022)

Walgreens is rationing baby formula, limit 3 packs, in all of it’s 9,021 U.S. locations. The reason for this move is that 29% of all top selling formulas are out of stock across the U.S. If you have babies, you may want to make sure you have a supply.
Here's the news story:


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 14, 2022)

It seems things are getting even worse in California. There was a shooting at a mall in Victorville, CA a couple weeks ago. Anyway, shop owners are feeling like they aren't safe anymore and the police can't protect them. One shop owner at a shoe store in the mall armed himself and chased down shoplifters, shooting at them. He missed, and hit a little girl waiting in line to see the Easter Bunny. The girl survived, the shop owner ran away, but got caught by the police in Nevada. They'll probably throw the book at him. Please be aware that the police are understaffed and the criminals know it and are taking advantage of the situation. Many store owners are getting their hands on guns for the first time in their lives out of fear for their lives, but have no training on how to properly handle or fire a gun. This makes going into stores dangerous. With the lack of police presence, you don't just have to watch out for people trying to rob the store, but the guy behind the counter with a gun that really doesn't know how to use it safely. Please stay safe when you go out shopping. It's getting crazy out there.

Oh yeah, we also had a fire break out at a produce factory in Salinas, CA.


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## bykfixer (Apr 14, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Several indoor malls in my area have either closed or turned into outdoor strip malls, usually after the big anchor stores close. Part of that is because of the rise of online shopping and part of it is that some indoor malls were having problems with gangs using them as their personal hangouts. This has been happening since well before Covid.


A few years back (long before covid) I was in one of those famous athletic shoe stores looking at some Evel Knievel looking high top Vans shoes when in burst this knucklehead with a video camera and another character with his drawers all showing who starts hollering "yo yo yo I'm……" at that point I tuned the guy out mostly but he was hollering so loud it was hard to drown out his stoopeleedoo rants about how the store sells knock off articles. 

The poor kid store clerk wearing a referee shirt was over in a corner cowering in fear as more of the thugs friend gathered around cheering him on. Then he got real bold and starting talking to the few customers who hadn't left yet in some sort of thug dialog I suppose. The words were English with the F word mixed in a lot but darned if I knew what he was saying. I looked at the kid in the referee shirt and said "got these in 10-1/2?"…… suddenly flesh tone returned to the kids face and he says "sir I'll check that for you" and disappeared through a door. I kinda figured "thug-stupid" might want to speak to me so I turned and faced him ready to say "yo man I don't speak dummkopf" but he ignored me. 

Mrs Fixer walks up behind me with some purple corderouy shoes and says "you like these?" I laughed. "Sure, why not?" When the kid returned he said they did not have those Evel Kneivel shoes smaller than 12. I asked about the purple shoes but they did not have those in her size. By then the idiot posse had left. I did buy some shoe laces though. 

The mall near me should have died 20 years ago but a nearby military base means hundreds of young Army recruits with paychecks burning holes in their pockets keeps the life support powered. Once the Sears store closed (taking the Craftsman section with it) I have no reason to go the mall itself. But the surrounding retail stores like Office Depot, closeout stores, and a slew of restaraunts are all doing well it seems.


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## PhotonWrangler (Apr 17, 2022)

I stopped by one of my usual grocery superstores yesterday to get a few things, and they were completely out of toothpicks. There were several empty slots where there would normally be several different types of them. There was just a single box of parasol-style novelty toothpicks left. Really? Is there a secret run on toothpicks that I don't know about?


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## idleprocess (Apr 17, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Is there a secret run on toothpicks that I don't know about?


World record attempt at number of martinis served by a venue in a single day in your area perhaps.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 17, 2022)

Was at Costco yesterday. A pack of Bratwurst was up to $11.99. That’s nearly double from late last year. Prices are going nuts.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 20, 2022)

Had to make another trip to Costco today. I could not believe how much chicken has gone up since last Saturday. The 10 lb. bag of frozen boneless skinless chicken went up from just under $20 to $28.99. The six pack of canned chicken is $14.99. There were no hamburger patties available at all. Only the pack of frozen one lb. hamburger logs was left. Brown chicken eggs were over $8 for 2 dozen. The fresh almond milk is getting too expensive for me at $9.59 for the three half gallon cartons. Luckily, the 12 pk of quarts of shelf stable almond milk is still only $12 (3 gallons at $12 vs. 1.5 gallons for $9.59). There was a limit of three. Starting to see real shortages and skyrocketing prices very quickly now. Small fruit trees were in the store available so family bought a couple orange trees. We need to start growing much more of our own food now. I suggest everyone that is able to, do the same if possible and if you haven’t already started.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Apr 20, 2022)

If/when you grow your own food, you have to be able/prepared to protect it. Perhaps the possibility of attracting the hunter-gatherers makes the juice not worth the squeeze.


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## idleprocess (Apr 20, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> I suggest everyone that is able to, do the same if possible and if you haven’t already started.


SO decided to start a garden. I suspect that the harvest will supplement a meal or few per year.

Were we to get serious on my ⅛ acre lot (of which less than half could be converted to agriculture) I suspect we could extend that supplement to a month or so. Of course the prime 'acreage' is in the (unfenced, unsecured) front yard.


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## jtr1962 (Apr 21, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> SO decided to start a garden. I suspect that the harvest will supplement a meal or few per year.
> 
> Were we to get serious on my ⅛ acre lot (of which less than half could be converted to agriculture) I suspect we could extend that supplement to a month or so. Of course the prime 'acreage' is in the (unfenced, unsecured) front yard.


Get the book Square Foot Gardening.

I used an earlier version from ~30 years ago as guide. I had/have 70 square feet in the back yard devoted to a vegetable garden. Unfortunately, it's been a while since I actually used it. The last 15 years it's been more like a weed garden. Anyway, I used to get pretty good yields from such a small garden. This year I might just plant a few things like lettuce or spices since it's too late to start eggplants, peppers, or tomatoes from seed. Next year I could go all out and plant it like before.

The biggest problem is lots of things seem to ripen at once, giving you more than you can use. I remember having eggplants coming out of my ears, but only for a few weeks in the late summer. And so many tomatoes I was giving them to neighbors. Overall though I'd say the garden probably produced the equivalent of 2 or 3 weeks worth of food. I grew quite a bit of variety. Lots of spices, carrots, radishes, brussel sprouts, broccoli, cantaloupe, watermelon, squash, cucumbers, eggplants, peppers, tomatoes. The book recommends using marigolds here and there for pest control.

Nut trees might be something to look into long term. It takes about 5 to 10 years for an almond tree to start producing nuts, but on average you might get 50 pounds a year per tree. Unlike vegetables, they can keep long term. You just need to get to them before the squirrels do.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Apr 21, 2022)

If you end up growing your own food and have more than you can use, that is the best problem to have. You can help out an impoverished neighbor and keep them from going over the edge or donate to a community food bank to help out those in need. You can sell what you don’t need at a farmer’s market for some extra cash. There is always a need for food somewhere.


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## BrightestBulb (Apr 21, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Get the book Square Foot Gardening.
> 
> I used an earlier version from ~30 years ago as guide. I had/have 70 square feet in the back yard devoted to a vegetable garden. Unfortunately, it's been a while since I actually used it. The last 15 years it's been more like a weed garden. Anyway, I used to get pretty good yields from such a small garden. This year I might just plant a few things like lettuce or spices since it's too late to start eggplants, peppers, or tomatoes from seed. Next year I could go all out and plant it like before.
> 
> ...


Stagger your vegetable plantings and use indeterminate tomatoes which continually produce until a hard frost hits them. This method will help spread out your harvest.


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## BrightestBulb (Apr 21, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> If/when you grow your own food, you have to be able/prepared to protect it. Perhaps the possibility of attracting the hunter-gatherers makes the juice not worth the squeeze.





Hooked on Fenix said:


> Had to make another trip to Costco today. I could not believe how much chicken has gone up since last Saturday. The 10 lb. bag of frozen boneless skinless chicken went up from just under $20 to $28.99. The six pack of canned chicken is $14.99. There were no hamburger patties available at all. Only the pack of frozen one lb. hamburger logs was left. Brown chicken eggs were over $8 for 2 dozen. The fresh almond milk is getting too expensive for me at $9.59 for the three half gallon cartons. Luckily, the 12 pk of quarts of shelf stable almond milk is still only $12 (3 gallons at $12 vs. 1.5 gallons for $9.59). There was a limit of three. Starting to see real shortages and skyrocketing prices very quickly now. Small fruit trees were in the store available so family bought a couple orange trees. We need to start growing much more of our own food now. I suggest everyone that is able to, do the same if possible and if you haven’t already started.


Right on...I'm so sick of these drastic price jumps that the only way I can fight back is by stop purchasing items I can do without and growing a lot of my own food. Also many purchases are bogo. What also helps is I never buy meat or seafood. When I do eat meat or fish its rarely and its always out.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 8, 2022)

AGCO, a company that competes with John Deere for selling farm equipment and parts is now dealing with a ransomware attack. Supply chain issues already had farmers hurting for parts and equipment. This is going to make things much worse. If the farmers can’t get the equipment needed to plant the crops, the crops don’t get planted, and that food never makes it to the grocery store. This is a way to try to cut off our food supply at the source. If this ransomware attack is prolonged, we could have some seriously bad food shortages in the near future.


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## turbodog (May 8, 2022)

BrightestBulb said:


> Right on...I'm so sick of these drastic price jumps that the only way I can fight back is by stop purchasing items I can do without and growing a lot of my own food. Also many purchases are bogo. What also helps is I never buy meat or seafood. When I do eat meat or fish its rarely and its always out.



I've got a bunch of steaks, roasts, and hamburgers walking around the pasture... am waiting for an open slot at the processing plant. They tell me ~6 months.


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## knucklegary (May 8, 2022)

I shopped today at my grocery chain.. New York cut steaks 6.99lb. Foster Farms chicken legs, thighs, or quarters .97lb.. Eggs went up in price (again) 5.30 18pk grade A large, but at another market I found local grown brown eggs for less. So I make the rounds. Canned solid Albacore tuna, Salmon, look for the sales at CVS


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## Poppy (May 9, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> I shopped today at my grocery chain.. New York cut steaks 6.99lb. Foster Farms chicken legs, thighs, or quarters .97lb.. Eggs went up in price (again) 5.30 18pk grade A large, but at another market I found local grown brown eggs for less. So I make the rounds. Canned solid Albacore tuna, Salmon, look for the sales at CVS


Yes @knucklegary I agree, that more and more it is worth it to do comparison shopping. I don't know if we are seeing "loss leaders" in the super markets, OR profit gouging, or both. Last week a friend complained to me that she had paid $9.00 for an 18 pack of eggs. Yet today, I see that they can be had for $4.99. Still last year, I think they could have been had for $3.00.

I have three supermarkets 1-2 miles from my home, and each is within 1 mile of each. One has more fresh vegetables than the other two. Veggies there are more ripe, and cost less. The trade off is that you have to use them within a few days, or they will be too ripe. The store carries a large selection of cheeses, at reasonable prices, but meats, fish, and other products are a bit higher in price.

The other two, are competitive. One is generally considered to be a little more reasonably priced, and typically have a couple more "loss leaders" than the other.

I hadn't paid close attention to prices, nor did I do much, if any, cost comparison. However with the huge fluctuations in prices, unless one is rolling in cash, it behooves one to pay attention. Me included.

I have two different apps on my phone, one for each of the two markets. Yesterday Purex laundry detergent was $.05 / oz. at one store, and $.08 / oz at the other. I bought 300 ounces for a savings of $9.00!


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## bykfixer (May 9, 2022)

We stock up on specials. Always have. Yet since the new president took office my weekly cost has essentially doubled. I used that as a historical reference, not a political statement. 

The one thing I've seen skyrocket is sliced lunch meat. It now costs about the same as a McDonalds happy meal. Not that I eat a happy meal every day, but it used to be carrying a lunch in a bucket bucket costed less than take out. Not anymore. I still carry lunch in a bucket because it's healthier and I know who prepared it. 

Pandemic supply chain issue? I don't really see that anymore.


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## idleprocess (May 9, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Pandemic supply chain issue? I don't really see that anymore.


It does seem that global supply chain problems have become more generalized broad uncertainties.


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## PhotonWrangler (May 9, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> It does seem that global supply chain problems have become more generalized broad uncertainties.


I think some of these shortages are due to the "great resignation." I'm hoping this will also be a temporary situation as those people who got comfortable with being paid to sit on the couch during lockdown will eventually realize that they need to find a source of income when the pandemic checks dry up.


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## idleprocess (May 9, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I think some of these shortages are due to the "great resignation." I'm hoping this will also be a temporary situation as those people who got comfortable with being paid to sit on the couch during lockdown will eventually realize that they need to find a source of income when the pandemic checks dry up.


The various forms of _pandemic relief_ checks - extended unemployment, stimulus funds, child tax credit - have either fully sunset or been discontinued in enough states that their effect has been greatly attenuated. Further discussion of this is sure to get heated so perhaps we can simply agree that the pandemic has been reduced to one of many causes of the global economy's troubles.


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## Poppy (May 9, 2022)

My grandkids eat McDonalds for lunch almost every day. Terrible, I know 

Recently I mentioned to my daughter that the cost of McDonald's lunch has gone up and she agreed. Looking back, about a year ago to today, the prices have gone up about 18%.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 9, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I think some of these shortages are due to the "great resignation." I'm hoping this will also be a temporary situation as those people who got comfortable with being paid to sit on the couch during lockdown will eventually realize that they need to find a source of income when the pandemic checks dry up.


This will not be a temporary situation so long as the work requirement to be vaccinated remains in place. People resigned for whatever reason because they chose not to be vaccinated. As long as that requirement to be vaccinated remains in place we will continue to have a worker shortage and a huge problem with homelessness. The people that didn’t get vaccinated were not eligible for unemployment and not allowed to rejoin the workforce. They became broke and homeless. They are not sitting on the couch collecting a check.


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## idleprocess (May 9, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> This will not be a temporary situation so long as the work requirement to be vaccinated remains in place.


My employer had a vaccine mandate: target rate was 70%; actual compliance 50%. Labor is largely unionized thus collective bargaining agreements demand _mutual negotiation_ of such a mandate. Don't think they've walked nor even disciplined anyone for flouting it - not even management. The steam ran out about time the Federal rules were struck. Best I can tell, all that the company is doing about it is enforcing masking and social distancing rules at company facilities. Customer-facing employees also expected to wear face masks and distance when possible.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> As long as that requirement to be vaccinated remains in place we will continue to have a worker shortage and a huge problem with homelessness.


Best I can tell it's <1% of the unemployed that's either resigned or been terminated due to refusal of an employer vaccine mandate. Enough to be characterized but not a significant contributor to unemployment.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> The people that didn’t get vaccinated were not eligible for unemployment


_At-will_ employees that decline either resign or are terminated for cause _(refusal to meet a condition of employment)_ - both of which have long been disqualifications for unemployment.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> not allowed to rejoin the workforce.


While state and local rules I am unaware of may come into play, this is generally untrue. There have always been plenty of employers that don't have mandates - even more now that the various Federal rules on the subject have been struck down in court.

I imagine that if uptick in COVID cases this fall and winter isn't particularly significant the insistence on vaccines will fade.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 9, 2022)

Maybe in your state, vaccine mandates are starting to go away. If that’s the case, I’m happy for you. California tried to extend the mandates further to include all private employees and independent contractors (AB 1993). Luckily, it didn’t pass. We aren’t off the hook yet from the mandates. Los Angeles county now has 1/4 of the country’s homeless population. When you have to have a vaccine passport to enter a building and paying customers are denied service for not having the shot, the passport, and photo I.D., you’re going to have a lot of failing businesses. A lot of people lost their jobs for not getting the jab and they didn’t qualify for unemployment because they were fired. All of this caused the worsening homelessness crisis in Los Angeles. While some areas may be getting back to normal, California lawmakers do not let go of power easily or ever and the pandemic gave them a stranglehold on things that affect our daily lives. The worker shortage and homelessness crises continue because the cause has yet to be resolved. When we can get rid of the mandates and no longer have second class citizens from the pandemic, our country can start to heal and our workforce can grow again.


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## ampdude (May 10, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I think some of these shortages are due to the "great resignation." I'm hoping this will also be a temporary situation as those people who got comfortable with being paid to sit on the couch during lockdown will eventually realize that they need to find a source of income when the pandemic checks dry up.



Don't worry, everyone is well back on the way to wage slavery again. I don't know about these huge checks you're mentioning that paid my way for the past two years, but I never saw them. Most like me, never left the wage slavery.

It's not really enticing to go back to work when your employer barely allows you a wage that makes ends meet, while the .gov pays you twice as much and gee you have all that extra free time to live life. Every job now pays $15/hour with no benefits. Who can live on that or wants to?

Go to it, be my guest.


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## turbodog (May 10, 2022)

ampdude said:


> Don't worry, everyone is well back on the way to wage slavery again....



Several of my clients are MD specialists (surgeons, internal med specialists, etc). Couple of weeks of missed work and they are out of money. A lot of the 'slavery' is self inflicted.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (May 10, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Several of my clients are MD specialists (surgeons, internal med specialists, etc). Couple of weeks of missed work and they are out of money. A lot of the 'slavery' is self inflicted.



People are not controlled by how much money they make. They are controlled by how much money they spend. 

addendum - When my soon-to-be mother-in-law was asked what she thought about the house her daughter and I had just purchased she replied - "It's a nice starter-house." 37 years later we still love and make our abode in that nice starter-house.


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## Salute Rocket (May 10, 2022)

Seems like the larger stores are well stocked. I do shop at Dollar General for some smaller items and they are usually low. They only had 3 loaves of bread today and no burger buns. I was thinking Yikes!


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## knucklegary (May 10, 2022)

Hunter Douglas is one of U.S. largest window coverings company. They are closing their Sacramento location due to high taxes and mfg restrictions. 120+ people will be unemployed. Due to CA "tax the rich to pay for the poor" policies nearly 300 business have exodus this state. In California over 50% population Do Not pay taxes. Welcome to America land of the Free!


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## bykfixer (May 10, 2022)

It seems baby formula is in short supply in some areas.


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## knucklegary (May 10, 2022)

From what I've heard not much baby formula here in CA.. I wonder if mothers who easily produce milk can help supplement others, sell their milk? Could be a lucrative business 😁


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 10, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> From what I've heard not much baby formula here in CA.. I wonder if mothers who easily produce milk can help supplement others, sell their milk? Could be a lucrative business 😁


They can add it to the menu at Hooters.


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## knucklegary (May 10, 2022)

I'll have mine with Ovaltine please 😋


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## idleprocess (May 10, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> I'll have mine with Ovaltine please 😋


The decoder ring _insists!_


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## Poppy (May 11, 2022)

Chip shortage may affect the military too.
Chips that make the Javelin anti tank weapons are made in China.
With Covid lock-downs there, we may see additional chip shortages, and IIRC a news story reported that each Javelin takes 7 chips (maybe it was 17). 

Once again it is coming to light that we need to be self sufficient regarding the production of microchips.


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## this_is_nascar (May 11, 2022)

As it relates to the supply chain issues, as I expected, covid is now the excuse for absolutely everything.

It's such an easy excuse to use for total incompetence by companies, people and politicians. I suspect for the next 3 to 5 years covid will be the excuse for absolutely everything that's not happening the way it should.

... The worst part is that a good number of Americans will accept that as an excuse.


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## bykfixer (May 11, 2022)

History shows society has a short term memory, yet now that a large slice of American society was successfully "crate trained" they can easily be coaxed back into the crate when the gubment starts shouting about case numbers again. And we'll dutyfully sit and wait for that same gubment to provide the solution again.

I heard on the radio yesterday a survey found that the current state of case numbers has way more vaccinated people testing positive for the Rona part 4 than non vaccinated. But what really matters (at least to me) is the non vaccinated cases end up with more dreadful issues than with those who got the jab. 

A coworker of mine has it and is out for week 3. He said the first week was easy and he was ready to get going again but then symptons returned and put him on the mat like a Mike Tyson upper cut punch. Don't know his jab status and it's really none of my business one way or the other.


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## idleprocess (May 11, 2022)

this_is_nascar said:


> As it relates to the supply chain issues, as I expected, covid is now the excuse for absolutely everything.


JIT logistics chains demand tight synchronization of logistics in order to wring inventories - and thus carrying costs - down to the minimum. It doesn't take much to upset them when safety stock might amount to a _partial shift's_ worth of operations.

Throw in a _major land war in Europe_ and things are unsurprisingly getting tangled up again.

But business has learned some hard lessons and is rethinking the prior commitment to lean JIT. Demand for warehouse space has exploded since safety stock margins are being padded everywhere on the producer side and JIT is blending into the old paradigm of JIC - Just In Case.


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## turbodog (May 11, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> History shows society has a short term memory, yet now that a large slice of American society was successfully "crate trained" they can easily be coaxed back into the crate when the gubment starts shouting about case numbers again. And we'll dutyfully sit and wait for that same gubment to provide the solution again.
> 
> I heard on the radio yesterday a survey found that the current state of case numbers has way more vaccinated people testing positive for the Rona part 4 than non vaccinated. But what really matters (at least to me) is the non vaccinated cases end up with more dreadful issues than with those who got the jab.
> 
> A coworker of mine has it and is out for week 3. He said the first week was easy and he was ready to get going again but then symptons returned and put him on the mat like a Mike Tyson upper cut punch. Don't know his jab status and it's really none of my business one way or the other.



How about we all make some level of effort to stay ON topic.


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## bykfixer (May 11, 2022)

Because thus far it has stayed on track so well……


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## PhotonWrangler (May 11, 2022)

I think I was the one who unintentionally derailed this. My apologies.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 11, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Chip shortage may affect the military too.
> Chips that make the Javelin anti tank weapons are made in China.
> With Covid lock-downs there, we may see additional chip shortages, and IIRC a news story reported that each Javelin takes 7 chips (maybe it was 17).
> 
> Once again it is coming to light that we need to be self sufficient regarding the production of microchips.


About a third of our supply of Javelins went to Ukraine. They are now shipping different weapons so as not to further deplete our supply and make us less battle ready. China knows our dependence on chips is a national security threat. That’s one of the reasons they want Taiwan. That’s the next battlefield after Ukraine. Try to become as self sufficient as you possibly can. These worldwide alliances and the era of peace we have benefitted from for so long are over. Every country is looking out for itself to secure enough food, fuel, fertilizer, etc. to meet the needs of it’s citizens. Free trade is breaking down. The world is splitting into factions.

You need to be getting your food and supplies locally. Transportation can be hampered by fuel shortages, trucker or truck shortages, worker strikes, Covid lockdowns, border protests, theft, fires, cyber attacks, etc. What keeps getting more expensive (food), you need to grow yourself. Have trees on your property you can cut down and burn for fuel in a wood burning fireplace. It’s going to be a horrible winter with fuel shortages and rolling blackouts. California has said it’s 1700 megawatts short of power each day this summer, enough to power 1.3 million homes. That doesn’t take into account we get about a third of our power from out of state in the summer and Lake Mead has 2 feet of water left until it goes into partial shutdown of it’s hydroelectric dam. Each foot of water the lake drops is 6,000 megawatts less power produced. California has half the water it needs to get through the year. That means no hydroelectric power when the lakes dry up. Across the U.S., they have been retiring fossil fuel powered power plants faster than they replace them with renewable ones. Don’t fall for it if they say the next blackouts were caused by global warming. They’ll be caused by poor planning and lack of investment to replace what they got rid of. In the winter when the solar panels don’t work so well to power the grid and all the natural gas gets used up by Europe, you’re going to need a plan to stay warm and fed. Start planning now before thing get too bad.


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## turbodog (May 11, 2022)




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## bykfixer (May 11, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I think I was the one who unintentionally derailed this. My apologies.


Oh, it wasn't you mon frair, the train has been all over the place with this one with on topic posts from time to time. 

The pandemic ripples will probably be a factor for quite a while longer.


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## Poppy (May 11, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> About a third of our supply of Javelins went to Ukraine. They are now shipping different weapons so as not to further deplete our supply and make us less battle ready. China knows our dependence on chips is a national security threat. That’s one of the reasons they want Taiwan. That’s the next battlefield after Ukraine. Try to become as self sufficient as you possibly can. These worldwide alliances and the era of peace we have benefitted from for so long are over. Every country is looking out for itself to secure enough food, fuel, fertilizer, etc. to meet the needs of it’s citizens. Free trade is breaking down. The world is splitting into factions.
> 
> You need to be getting your food and supplies locally. Transportation can be hampered by fuel shortages, trucker or truck shortages, worker strikes, Covid lockdowns, border protests, theft, fires, cyber attacks, etc. What keeps getting more expensive (food), you need to grow yourself. Have trees on your property you can cut down and burn for fuel in a wood burning fireplace. It’s going to be a horrible winter with fuel shortages and rolling blackouts. California has said it’s 1700 megawatts short of power each day this summer, enough to power 1.3 million homes. That doesn’t take into account we get about a third of our power from out of state in the summer and Lake Mead has 2 feet of water left until it goes into partial shutdown of it’s hydroelectric dam. Each foot of water the lake drops is 6,000 megawatts less power produced. California has half the water it needs to get through the year. That means no hydroelectric power when the lakes dry up. Across the U.S., they have been retiring fossil fuel powered power plants faster than they replace them with renewable ones. Don’t fall for it if they say the next blackouts were caused by global warming. They’ll be caused by poor planning and lack of investment to replace what they got rid of. In the winter when the solar panels don’t work so well to power the grid and all the natural gas gets used up by Europe, you’re going to need a plan to stay warm and fed. Start planning now before thing get too bad.



Yeah, it's time to move out of California, and those desert states that have to import water.


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## Poppy (May 11, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> About a third of our supply of Javelins went to Ukraine. They are now shipping different weapons so as not to further deplete our supply and make us less battle ready. China knows our dependence on chips is a national security threat. That’s one of the reasons they want Taiwan. That’s the next battlefield after Ukraine.


Yes, we have a limited excess supply of Javelins, (I have read). They are made surprisingly slowly, AND they need chips that we do not make. I read that it will take another two years to create manufacturing labs here in the US.


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## turbodog (May 12, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Yeah, it's time to move out of California, and those desert states that have to import water.


When petroleum declines from electrification and energy is easily generated via nuclear... water will be a likely issue to wage war (actual or economic) over. A president could stamp their name in the history books by connecting the Mississippi to the west coast via aquaduct/etc. If you've never seen it in person... it's impressive. We are here down south, drinking all your milkshakes.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 12, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Yeah, it's time to move out of California, and those desert states that have to import water.


My family has a property in South Dakota with an artesian well. That was our bug out location if things got bad in CA. Went to visit it last year. The well ran dry. Have to move east of the Mississippi River to be somewhere not in drought with water. If things get bad, and there’s a mass migration east, nowhere is really going to be safe. At least in CA, I have a home with solar and a working well. The desalinization plant in Carlsbad can supply 10% of San Diego’s water needs so we aren’t as bad off as the rest of the state. We have a wood burning fireplace for warming the house in winter. We have a garden, fruit trees, and egg laying chickens for food. We also have heath issues to contend with. I have Hashimotos and have two family members who are diabetic, one being treated for cancer. Hard to leave when your life depends on daily doses of pills or insulin. Takes a lot of coordination and planning to work out the logistics to get a move done. I’ll just say we’re considering our options.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 12, 2022)

turbodog said:


> When petroleum declines from electrification and energy is easily generated via nuclear... water will be a likely issue to wage war (actual or economic) over.


I suggest you read Isaiah chapters 11 and 19 of the Bible. Isaiah 11 describes a fight between Israel and it’s nearby surrounding nations. It mentions the Euphrates River being broken up into seven streams (verse 15). Turkey is building a series of seven dams along the Euphrates River (the largest is the Ataturk Dam). Revelation 16:12 says the Euphrates River will dry up to prepare the way for the kings from the east. Isaiah Chapter 19 describes a civil war in Egypt and the Nile River drying up. Ethiopia built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which can stop all the headwaters of the Blue Nile from going into Egypt. The next war in the Middle East will be waged over water. Turkey and Ethiopia have the power to control the tap to the Middle East. All it takes is a couple people in charge willing to cut off the water and sit back and watch the Middle East water wars begin.


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## PhotonWrangler (May 12, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> My family has a property in South Dakota with an artesian well. That was our bug out location if things got bad in CA. Went to visit it last year. The well ran dry. Have to move east of the Mississippi River to be somewhere not in drought with water. If things get bad, and there’s a mass migration east, nowhere is really going to be safe. At least in CA, I have a home with solar and a working well. The desalinization plant in Carlsbad can supply 10% of San Diego’s water needs so we aren’t as bad off as the rest of the state. We have a wood burning fireplace for warming the house in winter. We have a garden, fruit trees, and egg laying chickens for food. We also have heath issues to contend with. I have Hashimotos and have two family members who are diabetic, one being treated for cancer. Hard to leave when your life depends on daily doses of pills or insulin. Takes a lot of coordination and planning to work out the logistics to get a move done. I’ll just say we’re considering our options.


HOF, I'm sorry to hear about your family's medical challenges. I wish the best for them and their recovery.

I recently stumbled across an article from MIT on another desalinization breakthrough gadget. It can run off solar power and a personal suitcase sized unit should cost less than $50 when it goes into production. If this can scale up it might be competitive with existing methods for larger applications.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 12, 2022)

In a pinch, you can boil a pot of salt water with a towel or cotton cloth draped over the top of the pot. The steam will condense on the cloth. Remove the cloth and wring it out into a cup or bowl. Repeat. This is a poor man’s desalinator/distiller. Just make sure the cloth doesn’t drape down to the flame and catch it on fire.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 12, 2022)

Looks like a lot of Pilot and Love’s gas stations on the east coast of the U.S. are reporting they are out of diesel fuel. I’m hearing 1/4 of the stations could run out within a week or two. They are planning to ship gas over from the west coast to the east coast to try to help the situation. This could get ugly really quick. If our trucks can’t ship goods, fuel, etc. across the country, our grocery stores and gas stations will be empty very quick. I suggest filling up your cars, filling up some spare gas cans, fill up propane tanks if you do any gas cooking or heating, and stock up your fridge and pantry with food. If the supply chain breaks down, it’s going to be a long time before you can get supplies again. At the very least, this will jack up the price of everything again (so best to get things before prices go up again). Gas refineries are also changing things around so more of their production is for diesel fuel (there is more money and more demand for diesel right now with the shortage). That means less gasoline production so get ready for higher gas prices.


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## bykfixer (May 12, 2022)

Gasoline and diesel went down a penny today in my area. Two at some stations.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (May 12, 2022)

$5.11 a gallon for premium at the military base mom and I went shopping at today. We both exited the car, saw the price, then I asked her ....


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## nbp (May 12, 2022)

🤦

C'mon guys.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (May 12, 2022)

nbp said:


> 🤦
> 
> C'mon guys.


 
OK OK ...


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## ampdude (May 12, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Several of my clients are MD specialists (surgeons, internal med specialists, etc). Couple of weeks of missed work and they are out of money. A lot of the 'slavery' is self inflicted.



Not everyone makes that much money. Or can even get a job sometimes. Sometimes even the $15/hour wage slavery is not attainable for some folks. It's almost like people have their opinions based on living in entirely different worlds... oh that's right they do..

I work at a hospital right now. There's a huge wage gap between those people and the rest of us.


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## ampdude (May 12, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> It seems baby formula is in short supply in some areas.





knucklegary said:


> From what I've heard not much baby formula here in CA.. I wonder if mothers who easily produce milk can help supplement others, sell their milk? Could be a lucrative business 😁



Knock some girl up and disappear is what I see a lot of guys doing these days.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 12, 2022)

One option for some dealing with the baby formula shortage is a milk bank. It's not cheap at $5 an ounce, but better than having a baby starve if you can afford it. Here's a news article about it: 



The other option is to go to the southern U.S. border where they shipped pallets of baby formula for the illegal immigrants coming into the country and ask for some in person.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 12, 2022)

Here's a news article and a news video about the diesel shortage and the area it is currently affecting.
https://cdllife.com/2022/diesel-shortage-fears-loom-for-the-east-coast-loves-monitoring-situation/


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 15, 2022)

Found out the main reason for the diesel fuel shortages on the east coast of the U.S. The vast majority of the fuel is shipped by railway. During the pandemic, the railway companies laid off a lot of workers with no notice. When they wanted to hire them back, there weren’t many takers. Few people wanted to work for them. Recently, they had a railway strike that was stopped by the courts. The company (BSNF) changed their contracts to require employees to be on call for all but two or three days per month or they would be fired. This basically was to retain an already low workforce. It might have backfired. I’ve heard that they are only shipping Pilot half their order of diesel because they are backed up from a lack of employees and failing parts/locomotives. They have told these companies that if they complain to the public, they will be cut off from all future orders. That’s why you haven’t been hearing about this in the news. It could take a couple months to hire and train new employees plus another 6 months to work through their backlog of orders. That is the best case scenario. If nobody continues to want to work for the railway companies, this situation could drag on even longer. This also affects our coal that is shipped to power our power plants. The fuel companies are having to ship the fuel by truck because of this massive bottleneck. Expect rolling blackouts in the coming months. Expect some gas stations to have no fuel. Expect only half or less of the food to make it to the grocery shelf. Stock up, and plan accordingly.


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## turbodog (May 16, 2022)

I doubt BNSF changed contract terms if the job was getting done. They, like a lot of other places, have deadlines to meet and employees that are no-shows.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 16, 2022)

I’ll refer you back to posts 321,329, and 333 of page 17 of this thread about the BNSF contract changes and near strike (which was blocked by a judge). There was nothing to stop fed up employees from quitting after the company and the judge denied them the right to strike.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 26, 2022)

It seems Pilot Flying J's problem isn't with BNSF, but Union Pacific Railroad. Here is a video of the CEO testifying of the problem and how bad it really is. This is going to get bad fast.


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## turbodog (May 26, 2022)

Will be fine. The recession will drop the need for fuels.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 26, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Will be fine. The recession will drop the need for fuels.


Unfortunately, it won’t drop the need for groceries that get shipped by diesel truck that will only get half of their diesel and DEF fluid at the service stations. It won’t help first responder vehicles like fire trucks and ambulances that are also diesel. It won’t help sanitation workers or delivery truck drivers who may also be driving diesel vehicles. Worst is just about all farming equipment needed to plant and bring in crops for the next batch of food at the supermarket runs on diesel. Jet fuel is made in a similar refining process as diesel. You may have shortages of jet fuel as well. So we’ll be fine as long as we don’t need trash pickup, package delivery, police cars, ambulance service, electrical utility trucks, fire trucks, military vehicles, tractors, semi trucks, backup generators, or air travel. A great deal of our economy depends on diesel. Without it, the country grinds to a halt.


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## Hooked on Fenix (May 29, 2022)

Just got back from the pharmacy (Rite Aid). After waiting an extra week for four of my prescriptions to get refilled, only one was. The three that were considered over the counter are now all on backorder with no date when they will be available next. This has never happened to this degree. One was ordered by the gastroenterologist for helping with intestinal pain. The two others were vitamin B2 and B12 to help with issues from celiac disease. All pretty important, maybe not initially life threatening. Seems supply chain issues are starting to hit the pharmacies now. With MediCal insurance in CA now, over the counter medications are restricted for me to Rite Aid brand. Basically, they can’t just pull some B2 or B12 off the shelf because the insurance won’t cover it. For stuff that is not over the counter, they have to use different brands if one isn’t available (considered more critical). For over the counter stuff, this is causing a bottleneck and shortage because they aren’t allowed to switch brands when one is out. If you are taking over the counter medications prescribed by a doctor for your health, be aware the supply chain issues are starting to effect the pharmacies in this area.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jun 5, 2022)

Now that the Abbott baby formula plant in Michigan is restarting, this will take some pressure off soon.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 7, 2022)

Just got back from the Santee, CA Costco. Had price shock. First, there was absolutely no fresh bone in chicken available for sale. Had just been raised from $0.99 /lb. to $1.29/lb.. There was some boneless skinless chicken around $3.50/lb. Going to the frozen section, the 10 lb. bag of boneless skinless chicken breasts that went from under $20 to $29 is now $40. 4 lbs. of bacon have shot up from $16 to $20. 4 lbs. of butter is now up to $14, used to cost under $10. If prices keep going up at this speed, we are going to have food riots in the coming months. If these prices are an indication of food scarcity, we could have worse problems than food riots when the stores run out of food. It’s one thing for people to protest or riot over high food prices, but what are people supposed to do when there is no food?


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## Poppy (Jun 7, 2022)

I heard this morning that OPEC is ramping up production. It'll take a couple or few weeks, but it should be meaningful.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 8, 2022)

Saudi Arabia is selling the oil at $120 a barrel. This will do absolutely nothing to lower the price of anything. We may not run out of fuel, but we won’t be able to afford it or our groceries that the high cost of fuel will drive up. Until we start producing our oil to the maximum potential in the U.S., nothing is going to get better. We have to increase the supply of oil by producing it, not buying it from other countries at exorbitant prices. The U.S. can not function as a nation long term with oil above $100 a barrel.


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## bykfixer (Jun 8, 2022)

Part of the reason "futures" for oil are rising is due to a thing called ESG score. The score is what many investors use to determine where to put their money in futures and stock in general. 

Since oil companies receive a low ESG score lately the speculators choose to with hold investment monies that provides the cash for the oil companies to spend on "future" sources. And speculation is due to a higher demand for currently known petroleum sources means it may run out before new sources are available. Now the big oil companies have enough money of their own, but like most publicly traded companies they prefer to use other peoples money, as in money from the investors (called banks).

Combine that with a large slice of the planet choosing not to buy oil from a certain bad guy and it appears the current supply is even less.

Back in 2007 there was an article in Time magazine that indicated the planet had 5 years worth of oil and that was it. All gone. None. No more. Soon after that gasoline was over $4 a gallon. A similar game is being played now.

OPEC decided back in March to set back and watch for a while to see how this whole thing play out. See, if OPEC waits for prices to get too high that will lead to permanent loss of revenue when more people choose choose alternatives to travel, be it electric scooters, riding the bus or "gasp" buying electric cars. OPEC is a cartel of 13 nations including Russia. They would prefer that this so called green new deal not succeed. Nor do the folks who propose this so called green new deal really, truth be known. A United States Senator riding the subway? Yeah, right. 

And supply chain issues play a role as the world awakened from the pandemic let up. Oil pumps were turned off and now that they are turning back on they are struggling to turn back on fast enough. We should see the spikes halt soon and the price of oil drop, but the price of gasoline itself will remain high. Relief will come for producers whose goods use petroleum for production though.

One thing I have learned recently is a fair number of people I went to school with have either died from covid, commited suicide during the lock down or just decided to exit the work force. Decades of skill are gone, kapoot, not returning while a capable replacement work force is not available. That has also added to the problem post pandemic.

Here's a Forbes article about the recent OPEC decision








Why Are Oil Prices Dropping? OPEC Bows To Global Pressure To Increase Oil Supply


The oil price has fallen to a new low below $90, with increased supply and reduced demand putting downward pressure on prices.




www.forbes.com


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## scout24 (Jun 8, 2022)

The average cost for a new electric vehicle was about $14,500 more than the cost of an average new i/c vehicle as of February this year. $60,000 vs. $45,000 (Source: Edmunds.) Add in a lack of material to build batteries from and lack of charging infrastructure, you begin to see it'll take a long time to reach the stated goals for adoption. Think how long it took in the early 1900's to develop trust in the new i/c technology, build fueling infrastructure, etc. There's no way it happens faster now, no matter how much political wind is blown in that direction. Just the added electrical capacity needed will take a decade or two to add, given the aged and over-taxed grid we currently have.


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## turbodog (Jun 8, 2022)

scout24 said:


> The average cost for a new electric vehicle was about $14,500 more than the cost of an average new i/c vehicle as of February this year. $60,000 vs. $45,000 (Source: Edmunds.) Add in a lack of material to build batteries from and lack of charging infrastructure, you begin to see it'll take a long time to reach the stated goals for adoption. Think how long it took in the early 1900's to develop trust in the new i/c technology, build fueling infrastructure, etc. There's no way it happens faster now, no matter how much political wind is blown in that direction. Just the added electrical capacity needed will take a decade or two to add, given the aged and over-taxed grid we currently have.



Given so few players in the market, average price may not be the most accurate way to describe things. I know chevy just dropped their ev car to $26k. That's quite attractive.


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## aznsx (Jun 8, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Given so few players in the market, average price may not be the most accurate way to describe things. I know chevy just dropped their ev car to $26k. That's quite attractive.


Is that the Bolt? The one with the huge recall(s?) and horrible press last year? If so, I would have dropped the price too! That called for PR damage control to the max


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## scout24 (Jun 8, 2022)

I can pick an outlier loss leader compact that doesn't fit a family too, if you'd like... 😁 J/K, sort of. No insult intended, just a nod to realistic family vehicle needs. I wish the EV players luck in increasing sales, but I feel it'll be a niche uphill market for a while yet. I still think hybrid or a Volt type vehicle is the way to go. Best of both worlds, high MPG without leaning on existing overtaxed grids.


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## idleprocess (Jun 8, 2022)

scout24 said:


> There's no way it happens faster now, no matter how much political wind is blown in that direction.


The years 2030 and 2035 get thrown around a lot for ICE (market) phaseouts. It's a figure that would have been _aspirational_ at best 10-15 years ago - now they aren't even in the realm of cost-is-no-object political reality with a commanding consensus magicked into existence. If nothing else there are supply constraints around their production and labor/development constraints around providing the charging infrastructure.

The grid has to adjust to new subdivisions and new megalomarts all the time and manages just fine. EVs phasing in over decades and primarily charging overnight isn't going to be a problem that demand forecasting and capacity planning can't solve.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 8, 2022)

What people still don’t understand about electric vehicles is that they still run on fossil fuels. The fossil fuels are most of the mix that powers the electric grid which after some loss from transmission (5-6%) and loss of energy burning fuel to produce electricity (close to 2/3), you’re left with maybe 30% of the energy from the source. An internal combustion engine will actually be more efficient than an electric car taking this into account. A regular hybrid car will be even better. Electric cars in use will be charged while the user rests or sleeps, at night when there is no sun. That makes them a drain on the grid while it is overtaxed as is. Just about all of the nuclear power plants are about to be decommissioned. We need more reliable power sources added to the grid to meet our current demands, before we add on everything that moves.

With all of the supply chain bottlenecks, how about we let the free market work and let people buy what they want. Stop trying to ban oil and gas and lead people to electric cars like a pied piper. Some people that can’t afford electric cars will use regular gas cars. People that want to save on gas might buy hybrids or plug in hybrids. Some may buy electric, or hydrogen fuel cell cars. Without everyone forced to buy the same thing, it gives some relief to the supply chain because people have alternatives. The truth is we don’t have enough raw materials or energy to put everyone in an electric car and power the grid only on solar and wind. We may very well bankrupt the country trying to do so.


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## idleprocess (Jun 8, 2022)

Wandering a bit OT here...



Hooked on Fenix said:


> What people still don’t understand about electric vehicles is that they still run on fossil fuels. The fossil fuels are most of the mix that powers the electric grid which after some loss from transmission (5-6%) and loss of energy burning fuel to produce electricity (close to 2/3), you’re left with maybe 30% of the energy from the source.


An _economic_ coal station operates at ~45% thermal efficiency. The combined-cycle gas plants kicking coal stations' teeth in operate at ~60% thermal efficiency. Transmission and distribution losses are about 5% either way, so the net from a coal station is ~43% while the combined-cycle gas plant is ~57%. _Peaking_ plants are pretty inefficient and will likely see that ~30% net, but they're a small percentage of generation ... and being retired in favor of the combined-cycle gas plant. As an added bonus, distributed sources of air pollution are effectively removed to a central location generally not in the middle of a population center with better pollution controls.

A modern automobile engine operating under optimal load/RPM conditions might realize your 30% figure, but with the strong majority of the populace engaged in urban highway driving + city driving we're not going to realize that level of efficiency with any regularity. Ex: when I used to commute daily my mileage was 90% highway - and even then the best I could occasionally hit per day was 30MPG while driving the same speeds on a road trip I could hit 35MPG.


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## bykfixer (Jun 8, 2022)

Take a few ticks to look around at all of the plastic items in your life.








Oil to plastic: A lesson on how plastic is made


When it comes to plastic, times have certainly changed. While 40 years ago anything made with plastic was considered cheap.




inbound.teamppi.com




To me this is a good place to reduce green house gases while trying to get the transportation sector into the next phase.


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## knucklegary (Jun 11, 2022)

My States plastics recycling waste pickup. They only want what is worth money to them "recyclable" all the rest of it goes into landfills and gets burned.
One months worth of water bottles and Al cans around my house pays average $25 month.
That much money won't fill up my gas tank with many gallons (3) of fuel, but does buy me more bottled soda water, whoopee!
What plastics are doing to our oceans and burning toxins into ozone, well that's another story.


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## idleprocess (Jun 11, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> My States plastics recycling waste pickup. They only want what is worth money to them "recyclable" all the rest of it goes into landfills and gets burned.


As I understand it, #1 plastic can be readily and economically recycled, #2 is a marginal proposition, and the rest ... pretty much can't be recycled. As a result I chunk the rest.

Steel, aluminum, paper are generally economical to recycle.


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## knucklegary (Jun 11, 2022)

As we all do, what other choice but to chuck it into the garbage


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## nbp (Jun 11, 2022)

There are many threads on EVs and power sources already that are probably a good place to shift that discussion to.


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## bykfixer (Jun 11, 2022)

I don't really consider supply chain shortages a "pandemic" thing anymore since many were due to turning off the preverbial big switch. 
To me, the current issues are post-pandemic from turning the switch back on and finding the perverbial machine had a bunch of parts get all rusty while it was turned off.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 11, 2022)

What we are dealing with now is an everything shortage. We have a skilled labor shortage, a fuel, oil, and energy shortage, a fertilizer shortage, a food shortage, a computer chip shortage, a plastic shortage, a metal shortage, a baby formula shortage, a water shortage, a trucker shortage, and a cement shortage.

Much of this comes down to gas and us not using the 100 years worth of it we are sitting on in the U.S. to get us out of this problem. Fuel runs the trucks that brings the food to the stores. Without these trucks running like they should, food prices went up. Our electric grid runs mostly on fossil fuels. Without fuel, electricity prices have gone up. That raises production costs that get passed down to consumers. Plastic is a byproduct of oil. Without oil, no plastic products. More price increases. Urea ammonium nitrate is made from petroleum coke derived from oil. Without oil, we have less fertilizer for growing food and less DEF fluid to operate diesel trucks. So without oil, we have no transportation of goods, little electricity, no plastic, no products period, and barely any food. Seems like fixing this would be our number one priority.


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## bykfixer (Jun 13, 2022)

Toilet paper is still plentiful. Yay!!


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## knucklegary (Jun 13, 2022)

When I departed two weeks ago fuel cost $6.50 gal.. Returned 14 days later and same station is charging $7.00 for same fuel..

.. and same Gubbener is in charge


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## idleprocess (Jun 13, 2022)

Paid $5.10/gallon last week for 93 - the most I've ever paid; 87 was almost a dollar cheaper. Glad I'm not making that 60 mile roundtrip commute anymore.


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## turbodog (Jun 13, 2022)

I paid $3.99 for gas during Katrina. So we still have a ways to go.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 13, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> When I departed two weeks ago fuel cost $6.50 gal.. Returned 14 days later and same station is charging $7.00 for same fuel..
> 
> .. and same Gubbener is in charge


People are starting to get pissed off so we may see some change. I wouldn’t hold my breath on that change though. Years ago we were promised change you can believe in. We have it. It’s those few coins left in our pockets after the rest of our money is gone.


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## Poppy (Jun 14, 2022)

Last week I filled up at Costco at $4.85 a gallon. A nearby Gulf station was at $4.99 as were many others. Today, I topped off at that Gulf station at $4.91.

Starting July 1, 2022 Costco will start requiring proof of membership to buy gas.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 14, 2022)

Went to El Pollo Loco for dinner yesterday. They usually add about 50 cents to the meal to add on the drink. Not any more. They asked if we wanted to go for large drinks for 20 cents more. They lied. Medium drinks added $2.99 each meal and the large drinks added $3.29 each meal (which would be 30 cents above the huge price increase). Paid about $5.58 above normal for two meals. Restaurants are finding ways to pass on the costs to customers without it looking like they changed menu prices so beware.


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## scout24 (Jun 14, 2022)

Regular unleaded holding steady for the last week here in Northeast Pa. at $5.19/⁹


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## aznsx (Jun 14, 2022)

Now it's contrast dye for medical imaging. What's next? What will it take for U.S.A. idiots to finally learn? (rhetorical - please don't try to answer that). Unbelievable. 









Contrast dye shortage causing problems in health industry


Potentially lifesaving procedures are delayed, causing a crisis for healthcare. People across the Valley and the country are having to wait to get tests like CT scans as contrast dye is running out.




www.abc15.com


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## turbodog (Jun 14, 2022)

Our modern world is MUCH more interdependent than most realize.


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## knucklegary (Jun 14, 2022)

scout24 said:


> Regular unleaded holding steady forthe last week here in Northeast Pa. at $5.19/⁹


I gave the attendant $60 but only received $59.99 How many customers do you think will go back in store standing in line for one cent?
CA price for Premium sitting on $7.00 for last two days


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 14, 2022)

Next shortage apparently is tampons. 



I'll leave out the jokes this time so maybe the mods won't delete the post.


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## Poppy (Jun 16, 2022)

Two gas stations near my home dropped a couple of pennies again, $4.89. Last week they were at $4.91 and $4.99 a week before that. Hopefully this trend continues.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 17, 2022)

At Costco, a 5 dozen flat of eggs is up to $10.79. Almond Milk 3 pk of half gallons was up to $9.89. Four pack of canned chicken was near $16. Prices are still going up. Heard the DEF fluid shortage is getting pretty bad countrywide. If trucks can’t get stuff to the stores, we get shortages. I’ve also been hearing that the dock workers on the west coast of the U.S. have their contract expiring in July. There is the potential for a strike. Let’s hope not.


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## ampdude (Jun 17, 2022)

It's nothing to do with pandemic anymore, that's just an excuse. I only buy what I need these days. It's the opposite of the panic buying we used to do. "Terrified Into Being Consumers" only works so long and then the entire system takes a break from reality. Every job now pays the same wage, and they have no benefits and they all suck... but hey There's tons of jobs out there.. (paying the same) wow. sounds like the American Dream. I just want to "get by", don't all of the rest of you just want to "get by" and never live your life? Make money for someone else. Wage slavery. Cool stuff.


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## bykfixer (Jun 17, 2022)

I'm a live and let live person in general but post #479 caused me to feel pity for the poster. I just don't understand why all the angst these days.

Maybe participation trophies aren't such a great idea afterall?

Meanwhile the store shelves at my local grocer are normal but getting concrete delivered is an issue due to demand.

I saw a pickup truck with a help wanted sign for a mechanic that stated "air conditioned shop".


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## jtr1962 (Jun 17, 2022)

ampdude said:


> It's nothing to do with pandemic anymore, that's just an excuse. I only buy what I need these days. It's the opposite of the panic buying we used to do. "Terrified Into Being Consumers" only works so long and then the entire system takes a break from reality. Every job now pays the same wage, and they have no benefits and they all suck... but hey There's tons of jobs out there.. (paying the same) wow. sounds like the American Dream. I just want to "get by", don't all of the rest of you just want to "get by" and never live your life? Make money for someone else. Wage slavery. Cool stuff.


I've been living that way for ages, long before the pandemic. Buy only what I need. If there are sales, stock up on what I know I'll use so I never have to pay full price for those items. And lately, when things hit a certain price point which I deem excessive, just stop buying them. Either find cheaper substitutes, or do without. I'm starting to just pass the snack aisle for that reason. Even the sales prices are now more than the regular prices were two years ago.

Lots of people are raising prices just because they're getting away with it (so far). When I was in business for myself, I knew all about rising prices. However, if the price of the parts for a board I was making rose 50 cents, then I charged the customer exactly 50 cents more. My profit was the same. I never used rising prices as an excuse to boost my profits. That's how I know most of these price increases are bogus. If they were just in line with cost increases then the profits of the companies selling this stuff would be the same. In actuality, many companies, including oil companies, are raking in record profits. They're using the pandemic, or supply line problems, as an excuse to raise prices far more than needed to cover their actual cost increases.


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## turbodog (Jun 17, 2022)

ampdude said:


> It's nothing to do with pandemic anymore, that's just an excuse. I only buy what I need these days. It's the opposite of the panic buying we used to do. "Terrified Into Being Consumers" only works so long and then the entire system takes a break from reality. Every job now pays the same wage, and they have no benefits and they all suck... but hey There's tons of jobs out there.. (paying the same) wow. sounds like the American Dream. I just want to "get by", don't all of the rest of you just want to "get by" and never live your life? Make money for someone else. Wage slavery. Cool stuff.



There are a few bad apples out there, but the vast majority of these price increases are due to rising costs from: freight, labor, fuel, materials, shortages of all of the above in the global shipping market, etc. Covid is still a thing. I've got clients that have employees out due to it. This has impacts up & down the supply chain.


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## turbodog (Jun 17, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> ... However, if the price of the parts for a board I was making rose 50 cents, then I charged the customer exactly 50 cents more. My profit was the same. ...


Should have raised it more than 50. You need return on investment.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 17, 2022)

Looks like we may have another potential supply chain problem coming up. On June 24 (as late as June 27) the U.S. Supreme Court will decide whether or not to take up a California law A.B.5 on their docket. There is a conflicting case that has kept it from being fully implemented. If the case is taken up, the law is on hold until decided. That would be a good thing. If they don’t take the case, A.B.5 goes into effect immediately. Here’s why it matters. A.B.5 requires people doing similar work for someone be an employee instead of an independent contractor. This law outlaws owner operator truck drivers from working in California. They would have to be employees of a larger company and lease their trucks to the company to comply. This won’t sit well with business owners being told they have to become employees and give up their trucks. This could finish off the supply chain. I know truck drivers are already to quit due to high diesel prices, fuel and def fluid shortages.


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## orbital (Jun 17, 2022)

+

I'd really like to know who lobbied for the A.B.5

_________________________________________________


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## idleprocess (Jun 17, 2022)

Text of the bill if anyone would like some _light reading._ The bill looks to alter the definitions of _employee_ and _independent_ _contractor_ in state code. "Gig economy" workers are certainly the face of the issue today, however it's been simmering for decades with many employers classifying workers as independent contractors whose function is not readily distinguishable from employees. Debates about the merits of the law and legal case are apt to be contentious material more suitable for the Underground.


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## knucklegary (Jun 17, 2022)

AB5 is driven by Unions wanting independent drivers (Uber, Lyft, etc) to pay "dues"

* I got nothing more to add


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 17, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> Debates about the merits of the law and legal case are apt to be contentious material more suitable for the Underground.


I’m not interested in debating the merits of the law. I was bringing up an issue that could directly effect the supply chain in just over a week. If 70,000 truck drivers suddenly are taken off the road in California, we’re going to have instant shortages everywhere in the state. Might be interesting to see how it affects truckers of other states and their access to the largest port in the nation. This is a potential threat that needed to be shared, not sidelined. I pray it doesn’t happen, but people should be aware of it.


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## jtr1962 (Jun 18, 2022)

Somewhat related to the supply chain issues (and very interesting):



Leaked Amazon memo warns the company is running out of people to hire



_Amazon is facing a looming crisis: It could run out of people to hire in its US warehouses by 2024, according to leaked Amazon internal research from mid-2021 that Recode reviewed. If that happens, the online retailer's service quality and growth plans could be at risk, and its e-commerce dominance along with it._


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## turbodog (Jun 18, 2022)

Just build more FCs, spread out somewhat. Picking/packing robots are improving.

And this is the company that foresaw the shipping/port crisis years ago and secured access to smaller ports along with their own ships. I don't think this is an insurmountable problem.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 18, 2022)

The problem now is a wage price spiral. Prices go up because of inflation and people want higher wages. People get higher wages and the products they make have to increase in price. Then the people want higher wages again because their money can’t buy them enough anymore. The cycle keeps repeating. With hiring, people are looking for the highest paid job and jump ship as soon as they find something that pays better. Worker retention in this environment is a major problem for employers.


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## turbodog (Jun 18, 2022)

It's a bit more complex than that... otherwise the first time this happened years ago things would have spiraled out of control. 

There are buffers in that cycle. Jumping jobs costs money. You lose vacation time. Travel time is different. There's a finite number of jobs that one is qualified for. Some are close to retirement age. Some are unqualified for anyplace other than where they're current working. Etc.

Prices are up because there's more money chasing fewer items, the numbers of which are constrained by mfg & supply chain issues among other things. Let the supply side rebound further and things will settle down... now if the fed doesn't crash the economy in the meantime.


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## jtr1962 (Jun 18, 2022)

Exactly. In the 1950s and 1960s average wages were much higher in adjusted dollars than they are now, yet prices didn't spiral out of control.

One way to potentially help is to give incentives for people to save. The savings rate in the US is abysmal anyway, so you'll kill two birds with one stone. If people save instead of spend, that's less money chasing a limited supply.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 18, 2022)

Interest rates have been kept extremely low by the Fed for years which has caused a lot of people to borrow and buy out of their means instead of investing. The problem now is that raising interest rates is kind of like making a drug junkie quit cold turkey. It would be good to get interest rates back to a decent level over time so people could actually make a bit of money from their savings accounts, but so many are in debt right now that raising rates will just crash the economy. What we need to do is stop all wasteful government spending and find ways to reduce it’s size before interest on our debt exceeds GDP. Once that happens, there’s no way to recover other than selling off assets (land, oil, resources, etc.). Basically it’s like declaring bankruptcy and having your stuff repossessed. Normally, the Fed would buy up more debt or another country would since the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency, but since Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia, China, and some other countries are breaking away from the SWIFT banking system and doing their own thing. The U.S. dollar no longer has the investment from other nations it used to so instead of people buying more of our debt, the Fed has been dumping assets making inflation worse. Saving at a time of hyperinflation is a bad move anyway. Best to make sure you have a good supply of food. Prices on food are skyrocketing. Buying extra today will save you next month when the price goes up. Make sure your vehicle has a full tank of gas. Gas still keeps going up. Do inventory on everything to see if you need to order something soon or you need critical parts to fix something, then order what you need. Supply chain issues are terrible now. Look to reduce expenses. Grow a garden. Raise animals for food. Get off the grid solar system. In the 50s and 60s people grew their own food. High prices didn’t effect what they ate as much as now.


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## bykfixer (Jun 20, 2022)

So normally I don't formally communicate with many people outside my bubble but recently life has placed me on a path crowded with people I used knew in a previous chapter of life. Each and every one all used the word recession with one minute, which was quite surprising.

Maybe I'm just in ostrich mode with my head stuck in the sand, but I gotta tell ya when see an old chumb from chapter 2 in life my first thoughts are not about a recession just over the horizon. Maybe I'm like those on the Titanic who stayed in happy mode until the end... knowing the ship hit an ice berg and is taking on water... I just don't see the point of remaining focused on the things I have no control over. And aside from primary election day or a vs b election day I have little to no control over what the gubment does.

Are things seemingly heading in the wrong direction? He|| even Helen Keller could see that the answer is a resounding "yes", but I aint going to spend what little time I have left on the 3rd rock from the sun dwelling on it.


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## KITROBASKIN (Jun 20, 2022)

Desmond has a barrow in the marketplace
Molly is the singer in a band
Desmond says to Molly, "Girl, I like your face"
And Molly says this as she takes him by the hand
Ob-la-di, ob-la-da
Life goes on, brah
La, la, how the life goes on
Ob-la-di, ob-la-da
Life goes on, brah
La, la, how the life goes on
Desmond takes a trolley to the jeweler's store
Buys a 20 carat golden ring (ring)
Takes it back to Molly waiting at the door
And as he gives it to her, she begins to sing (sing)
Ob-la-di, ob-la-da (la, la, la, la, la, la)
Life goes on, brah (la, la, la, la, la, la)
La, la, how the life goes on
Ob-la-di, ob-la-da (la, la, la, la, la, la)
Life goes on, brah (la, la, la, la, la, la)
La, la, how the life goes on (yeah)
In a couple of years
They have built a home, sweet home
With a couple of kids running in the yard
Of Desmond and Molly Jones (ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha)
Happy ever after in the market place
Desmond lets the children lend a hand (arm, leg)
Molly stays at home and does her pretty face
And in the evening, she still sings it with the band (yes)
Ob-la-di, ob-la-da
Life goes on, brah
La, la, how the life goes on (hey)
Ob-la-di, ob-la-da
Life goes on, brah
La, la, how the life goes on
In a couple of years
They have built a home, sweet home
With a couple of kids running in the yard
Of Desmond and Molly Jones (hey)
Happy ever after in the market place
Molly lets the children lend a hand
Desmond stays at home and does his pretty face
And in the evening, she's a singer with the band (yeah)
Ob-la-di, ob-la-da
Life goes on, brah
La, la, how the life goes on (hey)
Ob-la-di, ob-la-da
Life goes on, brah
La, la, how the life goes on
And if you want some fun
Take Ob-la-di-bla-da
Thank you


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 20, 2022)

That would have been a great song to sing on the Titanic as it was going down.


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## turbodog (Jun 20, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> ... If people save instead of spend, that's less money chasing a limited supply.



Saving concentrates spending to a particular group. The saved money is lent back out (at leveraged ratios) to debtors who use it for some purpose. Banks are not in the business of paying interest w/o making interest... just not interesting enough.


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## bykfixer (Jun 20, 2022)

Some of this will be tongue n cheek, some will not.
On my commute home from work it dawned on me that when I was a little kid and gasoline was in short supply the national highways had a speed limit of 55 mph with a sign below it saying minimum 45. Apparently that was so that folks on bicycles would not ride on the interstate. There were tv comercials with ideas on how to get better fuel mileage too. Now everybody seems to want to be going 70+ by the 5th rotation of the wheel from a stop and some place have speed limits that match. Used to be folks drafted off of each other, now it's "awehellnaw Ima be in front of that dude". 

So today I noticed a trend of drivers in the right lane going 55 in a 60. Then this one guy on a donor cycle bobbing and weaving in and out of the lanes as he whizzed past. I thought "why not lower the speed limit form 60 to 55, place those signs that tell you your speed, and let the guy on the donor cycle do what he does. Lots of folks are waiting for a kidney or a liver so have at it dude". Meanwhile the folks going 55 will end up buying gas less often, therefore smaller carbon foot print, right? 

Roads with 70, make those 65. But instead of spending money on all those metal signs put up electronic kind that can change the numbers via computer in some building somewhere. If things go all electric just change the numbers back up. Or not. 

I know if I drove a big rig for a living and paid $500+ per fill up there'd be a sign on the back saying "go around I'm saving the planet" and be driving 55 mph. I've been called a slow driver by my years for decades because I typically run about 2mph below the posted speed limit on a highway. So it's nice to find I'm no longer alone now that gasoline is $5+/- a gallon. 

And if more people would slow down maybe shortages wouldn't seem so prevelent because by the time you get to the store the stock boy had time to restock it. 

All kidding aside, if you have an electronic display on your automobile set it on mpg and watch how much better your mpg can be by just slowing down a little.


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## idleprocess (Jun 20, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> All kidding aside, if you have an electronic display on your automobile set it on mpg and watch how much better your mpg can be by just slowing down a little.


Or better yet how accelerating +10 MPH to execute a pass for <30 seconds puts a dent in the past >10 minutes of driving 10 MPH slower.


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## ledbetter (Jun 20, 2022)

What did Sammy Hagar say???!!!!!


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## knucklegary (Jun 20, 2022)

ledbetter said:


> What did Sammy Hagar say???!!!!!


Fire-up another fatty?


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## ledbetter (Jun 20, 2022)

^^^^^^^^
In that case, 55 is advisible.


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## greatscoot (Jun 20, 2022)

There's a road I travel almost daily (I-88) and since the pandemic everyone seems to think it's the speed limit. I try to keep it at 70 and it's insane watching people pass me like I'm standing still.


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## bykfixer (Jun 20, 2022)

greatscoot said:


> There's a road I travel almost daily (I-88) and since the pandemic everyone seems to think it's the speed limit. I try to keep it at 70 and it's insane watching people pass me like I'm standing still.


One year a while back I commuted to Greensboro NC each weekend and a "train" of vehicles would shoot past me. One day I decided to see just how fast they were going and fell in behind them. At 105 they were still pulling away...

But my favorite was just before the pandemic I had to appear in traffic court. This one really old fellow approached the judge using a walker. The judge says "can you explain why you were going 85 in a 55?" The old dude chuckled and said "I was going the same speed as everybody else". The judge chuckles and says "so if everybody was jumping off a cliff would you?" The old dude says "well your honor I don't have a lot of time left so I have to hurry when I can." The judge laughed and says "I see your point.. I'm going to reduce it to 19 over the speed limit and send you to driving school". Applause broke out in the courtroom and the bailiff was turning red trying not to laugh. 

One thing that is not a pandemic induced shortage is crazy drivers.


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## Poppy (Jun 21, 2022)

I recall when the national speed limit was 55, that the truckers were complaining that it actually hurt their MPGs. Their argument was that @ 55 they didn't have the momentum to carry them over hills, and that they had to start PULLING at the bottom of a long grade. True or False? I don't know.

When gas hit $3.00 a gallon about 10 years ago, a lot of full size Broncos went to the grave-yard. They only got 12-18 MPG.

My car, a Grand Marquis, gets 18-19 combined, and almost 25 MPG highway @ 72 MPH. 4.6 L V8. A true highway cruiser.


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## idleprocess (Jun 21, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I recall when the national speed limit was 55, that the truckers were complaining that it actually hurt their MPGs. Their argument was that @ 55 they didn't have the momentum to carry them over hills, and that they had to start PULLING at the bottom of a long grade. True or False? I don't know.


I don't know whether that's true or false either, but I do know that OTR truckers have long been paid _by the mile._ The math might pencil out that putting down more miles per day handily compensates for increased fuel consumption.


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## KITROBASKIN (Jun 21, 2022)

Back in those old, over-controlling days, I remember Joan Claybrook (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) challenging anyone to prove going faster used less gas per mile. 

An argument against lower speed limits:



https://www.cato.org/commentary/untrue-any-speed


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 21, 2022)

I found this year's theme song:


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## Empath (Jun 21, 2022)

I'd recommend moving the present off-topic discussion to a thread more topical, and return this thread to it's "pandemic supply-chain" topic.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jun 21, 2022)

I had to wait for a month for an RMA replacement for a device at work when the usual turnaround time is a day or two. This is for something that's designed in the U.S. but built offshore.


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## aznsx (Jun 21, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I had to wait for a month for an RMA replacement for a device at work when the usual turnaround time is a day or two. This is for something that's designed in the U.S. but built offshore.


So much of offshore(ing) and the new world order of globalization! That's real progress


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## PhotonWrangler (Jun 21, 2022)

aznsx said:


> So much of offshore(ing) and the new world order of globalization! That's real progress


Yeah, "Just in time" logistics is now "fuggedaboudit."


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## aznsx (Jun 21, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Yeah, "Just in time" logistics is now "fuggedaboudit."


For years every time someone mentioned JIT, I called it JTL (Just Too Late).


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## idleprocess (Jun 21, 2022)

Between the extremes of JIT and JIC the economy is swinging from the former closer to the latter. Seems that the scope of all the contingency planning that JIT is supposed to do focused more on micro interruptions specific to a supplier or small-region crisis didn't account for the likes of the global pandemic and now the serious _belligerence_ in Europe and the resulting macro effects. To wit: brick-and-mortar retail may be dying a slow death that smells of the 'Zon but _warehouse space_ is a hot commodity in commercial and industrial real estate.


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## ampdude (Jun 21, 2022)

I think it's kinda ironic how it is making this recession worse. I have enough laundry and dishwasher soap to last me a long time. So I don't plan on buying any more any time soon. Got a closet full of TP. What did they think was gonna happen when the panic ended? People were gonna run out and buy more?


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## ampdude (Jun 21, 2022)

aznsx said:


> Now it's contrast dye for medical imaging. What's next? What will it take for U.S.A. idiots to finally learn? (rhetorical - please don't try to answer that). Unbelievable.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's the media making up things for us to worry about. 

It's what their entire business model is about. I try to ignore them most of the time, but it's hard not to.


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## idleprocess (Jun 21, 2022)

ampdude said:


> I have enough laundry and dishwasher soap to last me a long time. So I don't plan on buying any more any time soon. Got a closet full of TP. What did they think was gonna happen when the panic ended? People were gonna run out and buy more?


Consumption curve got a little lumpy but it's doubtful that the production curve reacted much to spikes in demand - or that it had the spare capacity to react. Early on in the pandemic when some of the shortages were really bad the retail industry simply pivoted to meet the momentary mismatch in demand: a few resourceful people I knew bought the likes of institutional toilet paper _(in commercial packs or odd sized rolls)_ piling up at supply houses and a number of restaurant supply stores opened to the public to deal with the likes of chicken being vacant on grocery store shelves yet piling up on their shelves in bulk packs. The demand whipsaw eventually sorted itself out, and to the extent necessary the retail/commercial packaging SKU mismatch was adjusted.


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## ampdude (Jun 21, 2022)

idleprocess, it's all what happens in wartime to meet demand.

Same example. You're well aware I'm sure. IBM was making .30 M1 carbines back in WWII.

Then there's a ton of surplus hand wipes and they start giving the stuff out for free at the entrance doors of Walmarts.


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## idleprocess (Jun 21, 2022)

ampdude said:


> idleprocess, it's all what happens in wartime to meet demand. You're well aware I'm sure. IBM was making .30 M1 carbines back in WWII.


As did Smith-Corona _(EDIT: actually M1903A3s)_ - however, this was a major displacement of _typewriter_ production for something entirely different.

The great toilet paper and packaged chicken crisis of 2020 involved shifting channels for the same basic _good_: temporarily shift logjammed commercial SKUs to starved retail channels, then the planned adjustment of SKUs since the increase in commercial demand was well-telepgraphed.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 21, 2022)

ampdude said:


> What did they think was gonna happen when the panic ended? People were gonna run out and buy more?


Yes. Haven’t you heard? They think if they drive up the price of gas, food, utilities, rent, and everything else, you’ll spend a year’s salary to buy a new electric car which you’ll now have to pay off with a higher interest rate.


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## Poppy (Jun 22, 2022)

I hate the media. When a crisis happens they talk it to death. Even if it is not a crisis, they make it sound like it is so that they have something to talk about. They then move onto the next topic they can turn into a crisis.

What happened to reporting on Ukraine? CNN commercials state... "I am so-and-so in Ukraine" yet I can watch the show for hours, and there isn't 5 minutes on Ukraine. People are dying 100-200 a day, yet over here if one person dies for whatever reason, it gets national coverage.

For a month, they dwelled on the baby formula shortage. Now not a word!

I don't have an infant at home, so it doesn't affect me, but I am wondering... is it back on the shelves yet?


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## idleprocess (Jun 22, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I hate the media. When a crisis happens they talk it to death. Even if it is not a crisis, they make it sound like it is so that they have something to talk about. They then move onto the next topic they can turn into a crisis.


Creating _*anxiety*_ has become a fundamental business imperative for the news media. Anxiety keeps your ears tuned, your eyes glued, and - most importantly - those fingers clicking on _The Great Link_ which then feeds back into the most financial reward. _Agenda_ is secondary - a means to differentiate - in this business model that's evolved in the 21st century.


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## fulee9999 (Jun 22, 2022)

and here in Hungary, we pay $8.26 for a gallon of petrol... ( which is the cheapest in the EU I believe )



Hooked on Fenix said:


> What we are dealing with now is an everything shortage. We have a skilled labor shortage, a fuel, oil, and energy shortage, a fertilizer shortage, a food shortage, a computer chip shortage, a plastic shortage, a metal shortage, a baby formula shortage, a water shortage, a trucker shortage, and a cement shortage.



That's true globally... Everything is more expensive as everything is in short supply, and those things that are not, are artificially increased in price...


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 22, 2022)

We lost a lot of skilled workers during Covid. The ones that were doing their jobs the best were working the longest and had the most exposure. Then we decided it would be a good idea to fire a bunch of people who refused to get a vaccine that has been ultimately proven ineffective with the newest strains. Dr. Fauci got two shots and two boosters and still got Covid. So now we have a huge worker shortage. I wonder why? Then we had the mess in Ukraine and a lot of fuel and food got cut off from the world. Did we ramp up oil production in the U.S. to help ourselves and our European allies? No. We decided now we’re going to quit oil cold turkey and go green. The problem is that green technology can’t function without plastics for insulation around the wires (made from oil). Everything transported largely depends on oil and most green technologies (batteries, computer chips, solar panels) are made overseas and require transportation as well as a dependency on nations that may not be friendly with us in the future. In the western U.S. we are in a megadrought. We were told we only have half the water we need in California to get through the year. Yet if you look at who uses the water, 5% goes to homes and businesses, 40% goes to agriculture (for growing food), and 55% flows out to sea to protect a two inch fish (Delta Smelt). Now they want to use state surplus money to buy farmers water rights so they can kill off more crops and flush more water out to sea. Want to know why food and water bills are rising? It’s because of decisions like that. If you flush 55% of the state’s water out to sea on purpose you don’t get to blame it on global warming.


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## knucklegary (Jun 22, 2022)

^^ Not to mention CA has not built new reservoirs in 40 years. Yet the population has doubled since then. Seems to be a no brainer to me🦧


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## idleprocess (Jun 22, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Dr. Fauci got two shots and two boosters and still got Covid.


Neat, but the real point is that the overwhelming majority don't so much as need treatment to say nothing of hospitalization.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> So now we have a huge worker shortage. I wonder why?


I don't. No small percentage of the workforce in the bottom rungs of the service sector got laid off to the tune of rampant inflation and the realization that no matter how hard they worked that better life they dreamed of was going to remain out of reach. So now scores of businesses and even local government services are operating reduced or multiple-choice hours because the supply of people willing to work for those wages under those conditions with those limited prospects has seen a sharp decline.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> Did we ramp up oil production in the U.S. to help ourselves and our European allies? No. We decided now we’re going to quit oil cold turkey and go green.


Nah. The oil companies have been enjoying tidy profits without tapping either available supply nor refining capacity.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> The problem is that green technology can’t function without plastics for insulation around the wires (made from oil).


Soy-based insulation has been a thing for decades now.


Hooked on Fenix said:


> In the western U.S. we are in a megadrought. We were told we only have half the water we need in California to get through the year.


The unavoidable reality is that neither situating agriculture nor building population centers _*in the desert*_ are good ideas in the long term since transporting water is energy-intensive _(CA State Water Project alone requires some 11.5TWH to move water from north to south)_ and assumes the distant sources will cooperate. It is unfortunate that fundamental assumptions based on the optimistic projections _or possibly hubris_ from a ~century ago are proving to be unsustainable but the reality is that there's not much more rainwater that can be diverted to southern California - or Arizona for that matter - thus some adjustment will be necessary. Whether this will be desalination plants for municipal drinking water, scaling back agricultural water, allowing something akin to _actual_ market prices to regulate demand _(say what you will about the Nestle bottled water plants treating municipal water for profit, but no one is going to water their lawn nor fill a pool with said water at those prices)_, or halting new water-intensive development is hard to say.



Hooked on Fenix said:


> If you flush 55% of the state’s water out to sea on purpose


I disagree that _rivers flowing into the ocean_ is wasting water.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 22, 2022)

idleprocess said:


> I disagree that _rivers flowing into the ocean_ is wasting water.


Consider that in August, Lake Mead and Lake Powell will have changes made to the water agreements downstream reducing water by at least 25%. Most of California is already in severe drought with reservoirs so low, we’ll likely lose most or all hydroelectric power this year. That means rolling blackouts. California is the world’s 5th largest supplier of food, cotton fiber, and other agricultural commodities. If you divert water away from agriculture for producing food, drain the lakes so they can’t produce power, take away people’s water reserve to weather the drought, to let over half of the water flow out into the ocean, then yes, you are wasting water. A drought requires prioritization of life saving assets like water, food, and power. I’m not saying we let the rivers dry up completely. They are letting 11 times the total amount of all the water used by businesses and homes in the state flow out to sea. If they only used 10 times as much, businesses and homes would have double the water, and we’re told we only have half the water needed to make it through the year. If farmers had a share of that water, maybe food prices wouldn’t be so high and people wouldn’t starve to death. Seems like a no brainer to me. Probably won’t happen though because the state doesn’t prioritize people.


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## scout24 (Jun 22, 2022)

Soy-based wire insulation has been a problem in automotive applications, being tastier to rodents than non soy based insulation. That said, "Pandemic Supply Chain In Your Area", gents..


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## knucklegary (Jun 22, 2022)

So, if folks get hungry enough they can munch on vehicles wire looms.. Hunh, I wonder how it'd taste with a little ketchup?


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## bykfixer (Jun 22, 2022)

Used to be a truck load of ready mix concrete was an hour late, maybe two in a good economy but since the pandemic it's two weeks late. 

A traffic signal controller switch for intersections to speak to each other... the supplier said "sometime between July and June" as in June 2023.


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## turbodog (Jun 22, 2022)

Poppy said:


> ... When a crisis happens they talk it to death. Even if it is not a crisis, they make it sound like it is so that they have something to talk about. ...



Agreed, but like any merchant, they give the customer what they want. And people would much rather talk about a problem than taking steps to fix it.

I can't fix global/structural issues w/ economy, healthcare, education, but I did take the time to write ALL my state & fed representatives as well as the governor.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 22, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> So, if folks get hungry enough they can munch on vehicles wire looms.. Hunh, I wonder how it'd taste with a little ketchup?


Next year, L.A. is mandating all takeout containers and plates be made of compostable material (plant based). You can munch on your wire, then eat the plate you had it on. Reminds me of a parody song by Tim Hawkins called “The Government Can” which has the line, “soon we’ll have to eat our dishes”. Scary how accurate that song is now.


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## ampdude (Jun 22, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I hate the media. When a crisis happens they talk it to death. Even if it is not a crisis, they make it sound like it is so that they have something to talk about. They then move onto the next topic they can turn into a crisis.
> 
> What happened to reporting on Ukraine? CNN commercials state... "I am so-and-so in Ukraine" yet I can watch the show for hours, and there isn't 5 minutes on Ukraine. People are dying 100-200 a day, yet over here if one person dies for whatever reason, it gets national coverage.
> 
> ...



Some of you might be old enough to remember 2000 "The year of the shark." They had nothing to report on all summer so they hyped up shark attacks like it was some national issue for people who don't swim with sharks. The entire news business model is based on hype and creating panic.


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## Poppy (Jun 22, 2022)

I just did an online search at a local super-market for baby formula powder. It came up with 3 instock, and 18 out of stock.

Of course this is not pandemic related, but it is supply related.


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## bykfixer (Jun 23, 2022)

It seems the plant that was halted for so long had to shut back down briefly due to some water damage after a rain event recently Poppy. Not sure if it's back up and running yet because the one minute sound bites on my radio are back to the January 6th thing. 

If I were to actually do some research I suppose I could find the answer. Trouble is my search inquiries all think I want to buy something from Amazon.


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## knucklegary (Jun 23, 2022)

^ Bamboo?


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Jun 23, 2022)

YABBA DABBA DOO!


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## jtr1962 (Jun 23, 2022)

aznsx said:


> Al production, from the raw ore all the way to your flashlight housing is one of the most energy-intensive industries there is.
> 
> What's my response? I just bought a SL Polytac X, and I really like it


That's one of the great things about LED efficiency increasing dramatically. Besides getting more lumen-hours out of our cells, there's less and less need for a big hunk of aluminum to take the waste heat away.

Aluminum production is very energy intensive, but it's also one thing which can easily be 100% recycled.


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## aznsx (Jun 23, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Aluminum production is very energy intensive, but it's also one thing which can easily be 100% recycled.



BINGO! That, and the fact that with the right alloys and processing there are few things that can't be done well with it, is why it truly is the 'metal of the future' (as some call it). I forget the % of total aluminum production in the last X years that has been recycled, but it's impressive. Even the high-end stuff I was dealing with has a good bit of 'clean scrap' in its base. I forget the number(s) - not my department - 'all' I had to do was keep the plant running


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## bykfixer (Jun 23, 2022)

Elzetta Bones owners used to get all bummed about blemishes in the ano that looked like bacon grease splattered on it. Elzetta stated it was from portions of the recycled alluminum not being completely mixed with the new. That was in 016 or so.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 23, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Aluminum production is very energy intensive, but it's also one thing which can easily be 100% recycled.


Usually aluminum has to get heated to melt down the aluminum and get rid of impurities. This energy intensive process can’t be done if they keep shutting down smelters. If it’s too expensive to process the aluminum because oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity cost too much, all you have are a bunch of aluminum cans and scrap metal. It doesn’t do anything to build you a Tesla electric car.


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## aznsx (Jun 23, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Elzetta Bones owners used to get all bummed about blemishes in the ano that looked like bacon grease splattered on it. Elzetta stated it was from portions of the recycled alluminum not being completely mixed with the new. That was in 016 or so.


I'm just a sparky guy and not one of the metallurgists I had to keep happy, but if that's so, that would indicate the quality of the big cast alloy billets their finished rod was extruded from wasn't the greatest. We cast our own billets (a very complex process in itself), and they tell me one of the reasons our extrusions were so good was because the billets were so good. A major factor in that was the fact that the 'ingredients' were melted down in '*induction*' furnaces (which were pretty scary things BTW), vs other types of furnaces. The *eddy currents* produced by the induction heating method (a phenomenon which was quite obvious when observing them) served to mix that stuff up in the very best possible way, which results in very consistently homogenous, high-grade billets, which (fundamentally / among other things) results in very high-grade extrusions. They also, of course, consumed incredible amounts of power. 

Aside from my flashlights, many of those extrusions went into (among other things) the Boeing planes I fly on, so that was reassuring


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## aznsx (Jun 27, 2022)

Now it's turkey. Any turkey in any form. Apparently they're all dead - not because of the latest chinese virus, but an earlier one. I would say 'what's next?', but I don't really want to know


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 27, 2022)

aznsx said:


> Now it's turkey. Any turkey in any form.


There’s no shortage of turkeys in every form. Whenever I turn on the news, I see lots of turkeys, just none I can eat.


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## Burgess (Jun 29, 2022)

Great thread here !



Today I noticed the 12-packs of Energizer Ultimate Lithium
L92 (AAA) batteries at Wal-Mart have jumped 85% in price
since last year !

From $ 16.24 to now $ 29.99


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## knucklegary (Jun 29, 2022)

I've found Walmart always high in battery prices. 
Amz not too long ago selling L92 8ct packages $15.. and they're fresh dated!


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## turbodog (Jun 29, 2022)

Burgess said:


> Great thread here !
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Strange. Too much for inflation. Seems to be a low volume item so supply chain issues would not drive the price that far. And probably not enough lithium in then to be affected by adoption of electric cars.

Just checked prices online at my local stores:
target 17.49
amazon 26.90
home depot 23.37
wal-mart 38.99
lowe's 32.98


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## orbital (Jun 29, 2022)

+

We get the term 'inflation' driven into our heads, so it becomes a convenient/perfect excuse to raise prices on everything.

About 5 weeks ago I bought a 24V charger, every time I looked at it online, the price was up.
*So if I needed some entertainment * I would check the current_ inflation_ price,,,, it went up $55 over five weeks.
For a charger in stock, sitting on the shelf.

yea,, inflation


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## orbital (Jun 29, 2022)

+

Also, understanding commodity prices, the last few months of equity revaluation, corporate margins, labor participation & wages, compounded by trucking issues. Even the fed too..


Still, perfect excuse, is that_ inflation_ label.


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## turbodog (Jun 29, 2022)

orbital said:


> ... 24V charger,... it went up $55 over five weeks.
> For a charger in stock, sitting on the shelf.
> 
> yea,, inflation



It's worth whatever current market conditions dictate. You wouldn't sell your house for what you paid for it 10 years ago, right?


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Jun 29, 2022)

turbodog said:


> It's worth whatever current market conditions dictate. You wouldn't sell your house for what you paid for it 10 years ago, right?


 
No. It will sell for whatever market conditions dictate, but its value, or worth, has not risen. Only its price.


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## knucklegary (Jun 30, 2022)

Construction costs, price per square foot, to build has risen exponentially since last year. That's how insurance companies figure the value, based on the cost to replace dwelling.. Worth? It's not necessarily what the market will bare but what customers are willing to pay. Supply & demand


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## 3_gun (Jun 30, 2022)

Hit up the local spots today (BJ's & Marc's) doing a bit of food shopping. Found a few bare spots on the shelves. Some prices up more than other but up pretty much up across the board. As a boy scout & hillbilly, not to worried about shortages of less than a year. Might not eat as well as I'd like but I've got can goods, coffee, sugar, tea, freeze dried meals, etc to keep going for awhile if the worse happens


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## knucklegary (Jun 30, 2022)

Here on the West side, CVS has canned tuna and salmon on sale. Between fresh Coho when available (right now!) Canned fish is a staple food for us when not eating fresh from the ocean or river


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## KITROBASKIN (Jun 30, 2022)

Can't help wondering if we all got more sensitized by empty spaces on shelves after the purchasing/supply behavior that occurred during the full swing of the COVID times. Now days, a lot of places are just about fully stocked.


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## bykfixer (Jun 30, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> Here on the West side, CVS has canned tuna and salmon on sale. Between fresh Coho when available (right now!) Canned fish is a staple food for us when not eating fresh from the ocean or river


I remember when shelves were depleted of canned tuna, the 75 cent all the way to the $5 a can kind. 😱 
When it returned we stocked up 4 cans at a time so as not to be "one of those" people but after a few weeks I had quite a stack of canned tuna.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jun 30, 2022)

Well, all the Costco’s I’ve been to lately are out of chicken feed. Dog food is skyrocketing in price and starting to run low. Chips have shot up in price. $6.69 for a bag of Doritos, was under $5. Batteries keep going up. No rechargeable or lithium options anymore. Kirkland AA or AAA 48 pk. is $16.49. Duracell 40 pk. is $18.99. I remember getting the 20 packs of AA Energizer lithium batteries just a year or two ago on clearance for $10-$15. Now they are $49 online. Dealing with blackouts will be expensive for a lot of people this year.

At the grocery store, you can’t really stock up much. They don’t have much. When I get soda, I buy 8 bottles. Have to buy in sets of 4 to get their “deal” and I don’t want to waste the gas driving there more than every week or two. 8 bottles usually cleans them out with one or two choices selected. Many items are about the same. They have enough to get one or two people through a week with one item before they’re out. What there isn’t a shortage of usually has a limit of one or two. Don’t worry about being the one to take the last of something. They won’t reorder it unless people buy it. Let them know they need to have more in stock. If you need it, get it. Shortages are already occurring.


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## scout24 (Jun 30, 2022)

HOF- Your last four words need to resonate with a lot more people. It may not be your brand of item "x" that's in short supply today, but it's been creeping in slowly and been normalized. I forget the source, but someone wise said things happen slowly, then all of a sudden. A little bit extra here and there adds up. I tell my kids to buy it today if you can, it'll never be cheaper than it is today. (Canned goods, batteries, etc.) On the plus side, the last week's weather here has been absolutely beautiful. The garden is loving it, peas are being harvested, and our wild berries are in full production.


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## Burgess (Jul 1, 2022)

Battery Junction, *an EXCELLENT vendor*,
has THIS display on their website --
Notice the prices on Energizer L91 and L92 in 24-packs.

But when you CLICK on 'em,
they show you their ACTUAL price
is now $ 68.00 for Each !
:-(






Batteries, Chargers, LED Flashlights, and More!


CR123A, AA, AAA, C, D and 9V batteries for sale at low prices, and the best chargers and LED flashlights. Lithium, Alkaline & NiMH battery types and more.




www.batteryjunction.com


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## turbodog (Jul 1, 2022)

Burgess said:


> Battery Junction, *an EXCELLENT vendor*,
> has THIS display on their website --
> Notice the prices on Energizer L91 and L92 in 24-packs.
> 
> ...


I show $49


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 1, 2022)

Batteryjunction doesn’t sell 24 packs of lithium AAs and AAAs. They’re 20 packs. Website says $49. If price is higher when clicked on, that would stink.


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## Burgess (Jul 1, 2022)

Battery Junction certainly *DOES* sell
24 packs of L91 and L92.
(6 little boxes of 4 in the package)
I've bought them multiple times already !

And I've just tried AGAIN,
and they both STILL show 'em at $ 68.00

< me puzzled >


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## Burgess (Jul 1, 2022)

And just to be perfectly clear,
I am NOT casting any negatives on Battery Junction.
I'm sure this is simply just a mistake on their part.

Just wanted to illustrate the rapid Increase in price.


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## Burgess (Jul 1, 2022)

turbodog said:


> I show $49
> 
> View attachment 29511


I believe you are clicking on the 20-packs.

I've previously bought their 24-packs,
so perhaps THAT'S why it shows (to me)
as recently viewed items.


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## Burgess (Jul 1, 2022)

Energizer Ultimate L91 (24PK) AA 3000mAh 1.5V High Energy 5A Lithium (LiFeS2) Button Top Batteries - Box of 24


Energizer Ultimate L91 (24PK) AA 3000mAh 1.5V High Energy 5A Lithium (LiFeS2) Button Top Batteries - Box of 24 - Energizer Ultimate Lithium AA Battery - Industrial Pack - 24 Count The World's Best AA Battery With high energy and lasting power, Energizer Ultimate Lithium AA are often find...




www.batteryjunction.com













Energizer Ultimate L92 (24PK) AAA


Energizer L92 batteries are the best AAAs available. With an impressive 20 Year Shelf Life and power that exceeds alkaline cells, L92s are a worthwhile buy.




www.batteryjunction.com


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## Burgess (Jul 1, 2022)

FWIW, 
(on my PC) it shows $ 37.15 
for a 24 pack of L91 / AA.

L92 / AAA is 40 cents cheaper


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## aznsx (Jul 1, 2022)

Burgess said:


> FWIW,
> (on my PC) it shows $ 37.15
> for a 24 pack of L91 / AA.
> 
> L92 / AAA is 40 cents cheaper


Their UNIT price for L91 is $2.50USD. That is a '*Bulk*' price, whereby they take large containers of them, then re-pack them in different quantities in plain white boxes of the appropriate size. i usually get packs of 20.

They also sell some L91 in factory (AKA 'store / retail') packaging in different quantities. They obviously cost more, and are not generally what one should order unless they have a specific need for factory packaging. That's the way it's been at BJ for many years now. And yes, the ones I get are fairly fresh.


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## aznsx (Jul 1, 2022)

aznsx said:


> Their UNIT price for L91 is $2.50USD. That is a '*Bulk*' price, whereby they take large containers of them, then re-pack them in different quantities in plain white boxes of the appropriate size. i usually get packs of 20.
> 
> They also sell some L91 in factory (AKA 'store / retail') packaging in different quantities. They obviously cost more, and are not generally what one should order unless they have a specific need for factory packaging. That's the way it's been at BJ for many years now. And yes, the ones I get are fairly fresh.


Sorry - guess I should've included the link for clarity.
Also, they may have other options I haven't checked out, but this is the way I always order them.

EDIT: For grins, I just looked up an order I did for 20 L91s back in 2015, and I paid $35.00. Today that would be $49.00. What's that, about $2 / year on 20? Yes, inflation is real










Energizer Ultimate L91 AA 3000mAh 1.5V High Energy 5A Lithium (LiFeS2) Button Top Batteries - Bulk (Minimum Quantity 620)


Energizer Ultimate L91 AA 3000mAh 1.5V High Energy 5A Lithium (LiFeS2) Button Top Batteries - Bulk (Minimum Quantity 620) - /*Remove Persistent Sticky Bar ATC Button*/ main.item #persistent-cart .pc-right { display: none; } .oem-detail { padding-top: 10px; font-size: 12px; } main.item .item-top...




www.batteryjunction.com


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 1, 2022)

More bad news for the supply chain. Yesterday, the U.S. Supreme Court decided not to rule on California Law A.B.5. What this means is all independent truck operators in California were given a week to shut down all operations in California permanently. This means in 6 days, 70,000 truck drivers delivering our goods will no longer be working. Stock up now. The supply chain is about to break.


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## aznsx (Jul 1, 2022)

Now it's fireworks (right on time for the 4th, of course). They cite "supply chain issues", the 'phrase of the 20s':
***
PHOENIX, AZ — Fourth of July is just around the corner, but some Valley cities already know they won't be lighting up the sky with fireworks. The most common reason? Supply chain issues.

***









Phoenix, Chandler, Tempe won’t have fireworks this Fourth of July


Phoenix, Chandler and Tempe won’t have fireworks this Fourth of July. The reason? Supply chain issues. Nonetheless, there will still be free celebrations in the Valley this 2022.




www.abc15.com


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 1, 2022)

People aren’t going to tolerate no fireworks on the 4th of July. Either they’ll go somewhere else, bring their own, or they’ll get creative. There’s no better way to celebrate freedom than to blow some  up. But if you see someone doing anything creative, run.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 2, 2022)

Just got back from Costco. Batteries shot up in price again. The 40 pack of AAs or AAAs, or the pack of 9 volt Duracell batteries is $20.99. The 14 pack of Cs or Ds is 18.99. New York Steak is $10.99/lb. They had no regular boneless skinless chicken thighs. Organic thighs were $5.99/lb. Glad you can still buy a 3 lb. cooked chicken for $5. Wonder how long that will last? Pizzas are starting to use meatless pepperoni. With meat so expensive and less available, I guess they are trying to make more people go vegan. They still had no chicken feed. They were out of our dog’s dog food. Alternatives were up to $60. Looked like they were running low on kitty litter as well.


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## greatscoot (Jul 2, 2022)

For me an 7lb bag of dog food went from $15 to $18 two weeks ago.


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## Poppy (Jul 3, 2022)

I haven't heard a thing about baby formula on the news in... what? A month?

I took this picture today at our local supermarket.


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## turbodog (Jul 3, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I haven't heard a thing about baby formula on the news in... what? A month?



I bet you'll be hearing about it soon enough. With R/W overturned, the first births will happen in ~6 months. The significant increase in births will come with a need for formula. If I were in the market for such items... I would begin stocking up now. 

If all abortions are turned into births, expect a 28% increase. Reality will be somewhere in between of course, but with such _tight_ supply... I don't see this working out smoothly.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jul 3, 2022)

I was at one of my usual gas station haunts to grab some coffee yesterday and I've found that they've been out of sporadic things for the past two weekends. They're also not doing as well as usual in terms of general upkeep, so I'm not sure whether this is a supply chain issue, a labor shortage or both. This is one of the national chains, not some mom & pop station.


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## xxo (Jul 4, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I haven't heard a thing about baby formula on the news in... what? A month?
> 
> I took this picture today at our local supermarket.
> 
> View attachment 29574


The formula shortages are still a thing and seem to be getting worse. A family member ran out of formula for her new born and was lucky enough to get some from a network of mothers around the country who share what little formula they have so that, hopefully, no one has to go without.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 4, 2022)

Wonder how bad fuel and meat shortages will be after the 4th of July? With a lot of people wanting to travel by car or plane and wanting to barbecue, I wouldn’t expect things to get better.


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## Poppy (Jul 4, 2022)

20 years ago, gas was a dollar a gallon, 10 years ago it was three dollars a gallon; people adapted. Now it's five dollars a gallon. IMO people will adapt. Sure there was a sudden increase, and everyone is in a sudden shock. Hopefully it won't be long lasting, but if it is, we'll adapt.

Gas in my area is dropping about a nickel a week. A nearby station is now at $4.61 a gallon.

Skinless boneless chicken breasts can still be had for the 5 pound family pack for $2.99 a pound on sale. It is pretty regularly on sale. Otherwise, it's $3.49 a pound (in the family pack).


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## idleprocess (Jul 4, 2022)

Poppy said:


> 20 years ago, gas was a dollar a gallon, 10 years ago it was three dollars a gallon; people adapted. Now it's five dollars a gallon. IMO people will adapt. Sure there was a sudden increase, and everyone is in a sudden shock. Hopefully it won't be long lasting, but if it is, we'll adapt.


Living in a regional capitol of _truckistan_ I've witnessed more than a few of these price shocks and it's apparent that the average automobile buyer's memory is short. Every time there's a prolonged spike in the price of gas there's a reluctant, grudging, resentful interest in conservation that lasts about until the price of fuel stabilizes at something close to the old normal then it's back to lifestyle trucks / luxury dadmobiles with the biggest engine available.

The market will force some short-term corrections but I doubt that the trajectory will much alter in an automobile-dependent society where for generations what you drive has been presented as _what you are_. Conversely, the finances of major petroleum-exporting nations generally obligate them to keep the pumps running so these things tend to correct back towards the old baseline.



Poppy said:


> Gas in my area is dropping about a nickel a week. A nearby station is now at $4.61 a gallon.


I paid $5.10/gallon for 93 about three weeks ago, $5.00/gallon late last week so it's inching down.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 4, 2022)

Easy for those not living in California to think things will just go back to normal eventually. Our laws in this state will prevent that from ever happening again. We have a free range animal law that drives up the price of eggs and especially pig meat. Many out of state companies won’t do business with California anymore because of that law. Smithfield and Farmer John have decided California is too expensive to do business in so they are both leaving the state. Bacon is sometimes over $10 a lb. in the store. We’ve basically made it too expensive to produce food in the state and penalized other states for doing business with us so much they take their business elsewhere. Then there’s A.B.5 which not only will produce a shortage of truck drivers in the state, but will also likely ban independent operator truck drivers from other states from ever doing business in California. If we could let the market correct some things, we might eventually get things back to normal, but with government interference, nothing will ever be the same again. The government is living up to it’s motto: If it ain’t broke, fix it until it is.


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## turbodog (Jul 4, 2022)

Poppy said:


> ...
> 
> Skinless boneless chicken breasts can still be had for the 5 pound family pack for $2.99 a pound on sale. It is pretty regularly on sale. Otherwise, it's $3.49 a pound (in the family pack).



Local kroger sold me some nice pork butt for 1.99/lb, 7lb of meat. I'm gonna have pulled pork bbq for many days.

Even losing 50% due to shrinking/cooking, finished product for $4/lb is not bad at all.


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## Poppy (Jul 10, 2022)

Although the news reported that the baby formula shortage is still a crisis, yesterday, I took this picture at a different super market than the one I was in last week.


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## PhotonWrangler (Jul 10, 2022)

I was at a large variety store on Friday where they have an island of displays in the middle of an aisle at the entrance. This time of the year it's normally filled with back-to-school items like pencils, crayons, notebooks and Elmer's glue. This time however the island had a number of empty bins. Maybe it's supply chain issues or maybe students aren't using pens & pencils anymore. Either way it looked significantly barren compared to the same display last year.


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## bykfixer (Jul 11, 2022)

I wonder if Elmers glue "may have been linked to causing cancer in California" like nearly every product I buy at box stores these days. Haven't bought Elmers glue in a while. 

Shelves look pretty normal in general where I live lately.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 12, 2022)

Looks like there is a truck worker strike planned at the California ports starting tomorrow at 7-8 a.m. (Los Angeles port at least, maybe Oakland as well- so far in Oakland 15 companies ready to strike for 3 days) to protest A.B.5. 70% of the port truck workers were independent owner operators that have been suddenly made illegal to work by this law. I guess the remaining 30% would rather support their fellow workers than permanently get stuck with 3+ times more work. I’d expect to see supply chain disruptions if all the truck drivers go on strike. Since A.B.5 is now in effect, expect to see a lot less product in the stores from here on out. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but at least if everyone is on board to get rid of that law, maybe these problems won’t last for too much longer. I’m not happy to hear about this strike. We have enough supply chain problems. Just thought I’d give everyone a head’s up about what’s about to happen.


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## ampdude (Jul 12, 2022)

The supply chain is all fine. There hasn't been a shortage of anything that I've noticed since mid-2020 except for ammo. Which is not necessary since I already have a ton. It's just people wanting to jack prices up on everything because they've been given the green light to do so. And who has money to stock up on anything anymore anyways. There's the breaking point. Most people are living paycheck to paycheck.


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## ampdude (Jul 12, 2022)

People are terrified into being consumers by the corporate media. Just like they think they need to buy 47 loaves of bread, fill 20 Jerry Cans full of gas and buy and 87 gallons of milk before a hurricane comes in that lasts one day most of the time. Then end up throwing most of it away.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 13, 2022)

ampdude said:


> The supply chain is all fine. There hasn't been a shortage of anything that I've noticed since mid-2020 except for ammo. Which is not necessary since I already have a ton. It's just people wanting to jack prices up on everything because they've been given the green light to do so. And who has money to stock up on anything anymore anyways. There's the breaking point. Most people are living paycheck to paycheck.


So you understand that prices are going up, but you don’t seem to grasp basic economics and how supply and demand works. Under normal circumstances, competition keeps prices fair and low. Companies don’t try to rip people off because they’ll simply lose business to a competitor and lose market share. It’s better for everyone if they keep the prices fair. So this idea that companies now have the green light to rip people off is ridiculous. When there is less of a product, prices increase to stabilize supply. When you don’t have enough to go around, you make it harder to acquire (raise prices) so the product doesn’t run out. This is a concept known as scarcity of resources. You should learn it in Economics 101. The less of a desired product you have to sell, the more valuable it is, and the higher you charge for it. If prices of everything are going up, logic dictates that there is less available to sell. This is known as a shortage. It begins with an increase in price and ends with being unable to obtain the product. Hopefully you can understand that a price increase with product on the shelf does not mean there isn’t a shortage. It just means the shortage hasn’t reached it’s end stage yet. Countries’ governments are being overturned due to food riots now (i.e. Sri Lanka). These shortages are real and blaming those that sell the products as if there is some conspiracy to rip you off is juvenile. Wake up and see what is really happening or it’s going to hit you like a ton of bricks.


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## ampdude (Jul 13, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> So you understand that prices are going up, but you don’t seem to grasp basic economics and how supply and demand works.



Your username and the first sentence of your post already tells me you're not worth having a conversation with.


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## ampdude (Jul 13, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Although the news reported that the baby formula shortage is still a crisis, yesterday, I took this picture at a different super market than the one I was in last week.
> 
> View attachment 29766


 
Funny, everything doesn't revolve around Walmart and their supply chain right? And whatever small world certain people live in. It's out there. Just drive somewhere else. As a previous joker said and they always do say... "supply and demand". Little brains for little worlds.


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## bykfixer (Jul 13, 2022)

now now children, lets all go back to our safe spaces before somebody gets hurt……


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## Poppy (Jul 13, 2022)

I don't know what the status is now, but back in the day, there was a demand for owner operators, because in part they were willing to work for less than union wages. Perhaps this California law will force the owner operators to unionize and get union wages. That may not be great for us consumers, but allow the owner operators to make a liveable wage, without having to work an insane number of hours.


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## KITROBASKIN (Jul 13, 2022)

That was rude to the ampdude.
I took economics 101 and it was in large part divorced from the nuances of reality with it’s certitude and simplistic wares. 

Herd mentality is very real, and more than a few vendors use it to make extra profit whenever they can. There are a couple of members here who are being sucked in by supply fears made by those who profit from such gullibility. And that of course makes the situation worse if the fear mongers are heeded.

We have been putting up with the Debbie Downer muff fluff, let ampdude have his say without the excoriating embarrassment for all to see.


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## bykfixer (Jul 13, 2022)

Critique the post, not the post-er please.


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## knucklegary (Jul 13, 2022)

Yep, you should search Debbie Downer Muff Fluff. It's definitely not a children's book (-;


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 13, 2022)

I understand it’s frustrating that prices of everything keep going up. It makes it hard to save, stock up, or do anything fun with your money to get your mind off the current situation. Makes it hard to keep your sense of humor and not go crazy at each bump in the road that comes your way in life. What I had a problem with was Ampdude’s attitude that producers were all “given the green light to rip us off”. Do you know how many hard working people it takes to get food for you to the store, electricity to your home, and gas to the gas station for your car? You think things are bad now? Look at South Africa with their 8 hour per day rolling blackouts or Sri Lanka which just overturned their government over food riots. We take so much for granted. We should be thanking the people for their service bringing us what we need, not blaming them for the problems they had no part in creating. This talk about blaming the producers for not lowering their prices leads to talks about price controls. That leads to shortages as companies cut their loses and quit. Then you end up with the Soviet era bread lines or the gas lines during the ’70s with only certain days you are allowed to gas up. Don’t let your frustration with high prices lead you down the path to something much worse.


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## turbodog (Jul 13, 2022)

There are most certainly legit supply chain issues in place currently, one of which is labor. We are short ~2M immigrants based on historical data & current needs. Non-immigrants don't work as cheaply (or at all for some jobs)... any more wonder why prices are up? Not that hard.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 13, 2022)

Our biggest problem with the supply chain is our government picking winners and losers. Instead of focusing on bringing in the best and brightest the world has to offer through a legal immigration system, they chose instead to let everyone else cut in line with illegal immigration so we end up with the people no country wants. Instead of letting the fair market decide which energy sources would be used to power our grid through competition, they decided to go with solar and wind and bankrupt the rest. Now several states no longer have reliable power grids. In California, they decided to make it illegal to be an independent owner operator of a semi truck because the state could get more tax revenue if all the truck drivers were union employees. Now, we have 70,000 less trucks delivering our goods as of this week. The government decided to mandate 100 million workers be vaccinated against Covid, or lose their jobs. Wonder why there’s a worker shortage?


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 13, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Looks like there is a truck worker strike planned at the California ports starting tomorrow at 7-8 a.m. (Los Angeles port at least, maybe Oakland as well- so far in Oakland 15 companies ready to strike for 3 days) to protest A.B.5. 70% of the port truck workers were independent owner operators that have been suddenly made illegal to work by this law. I guess the remaining 30% would rather support their fellow workers than permanently get stuck with 3+ times more work. I’d expect to see supply chain disruptions if all the truck drivers go on strike. Since A.B.5 is now in effect, expect to see a lot less product in the stores from here on out. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but at least if everyone is on board to get rid of that law, maybe these problems won’t last for too much longer. I’m not happy to hear about this strike. We have enough supply chain problems. Just thought I’d give everyone a head’s up about what’s about to happen.


Thought I'd follow up on this. The strike is taking place now. They are planning for it to last 3 days. Here is some raw footage of the strike in L.A.:


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## bykfixer (Jul 13, 2022)

Crony capitalism is a real problem anymore. The gubment picking winners (and losers) through crazy regulations does a lot of good for some and bad for others. But the supply chain disruptions are minimal in some areas and really bad in other areas. 
The US overall has a really strong supply chain yet rusty/weak links are causing difficulty at times. 
And yeah some companies are taking advantage of the situation, no doubt, yet gubment control would make things worse in the long run. Gubment is slow and wasteful be it local, state or federal so putting them in charge of the supply chain would probably not work well versus a private sector that tends to bob and weave in order to "roll with the changes".

One thing is certain, there's no shortage of hot air at the capital buildings all across America these days.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 13, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> One thing is certain, there's no shortage of hot air at the capital buildings all across America these days.


…or a shortage of fertilizer. You can smell the b.s. from a mile away.


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## bykfixer (Jul 13, 2022)

Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed often……for the same reason. 

My local grocery store was strangely out of elbow noodles all through the pandemic. They're plentiful now.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 13, 2022)

Looks like the supply chain issues are about to get even worse come January 1, 2023. California passed an emissions law a long time ago that doesn't kick in until the start of next year that bans all semi trucks made before 2010 from operating in the state of California. We just made 70,000 truck operators illegal in this state via A.B.5. This would be an estimated 80,000 trucks. It also prevents trucks in other states made before 2010 from operating in the state. Because of supply chain issues and chip shortages, new trucks can't even be ordered now to try to comply with the law when it takes effect next year. Also, older model trucks are less likely to require DEF fluid for operation. Once this law takes effect, all diesel trucks will require it during a time we are having shortages of that fluid. Here's a news report about the upcoming law:


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## Poppy (Jul 14, 2022)

Back in 1973 my dad took the family on a three week road trip from NJ to CA and back. My sister and I did the bulk of the driving, and we did a fair amount of it at night so we had more day time hours hitting the tourist spots, instead of just driving during the day. I was driving at day break, as we approached Los Angeles, California. I could see the smog hanging over the city, and as we got closer, my eyes started to tear. Granted, I was tired, but the *smog irritated my eyes.*

Pollution is a real thing. It needs to be addressed.

I imagine that if some laws are passed that create too much of a hardship, the populace will vote in lawmakers who will repeal those same laws.

In the mean-time, gas prices here continue to drop. $4.47 a gallon.


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## scout24 (Jul 14, 2022)

Perspective: they've "dropped" to double what they were two years ago. And no doubt smog and pollition are real, but you can't flip the switch to a power generation or transportation system that provides say 10% of your needs and think everyone will adapt and things will be fine. Electricity needs to flow and goods and peoe need to move. That's just reality. 

On topic, the amount of product spread out on shelves here to make them appear full continues to rise. Lack of variety and gast rising prices for sure but not true shortages.


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## xxo (Jul 14, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Pollution is a real thing. It needs to be addressed.


It has been addresed. Pollution levels in LA are half what they were when you were there in the '70's.


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## idleprocess (Jul 14, 2022)

Poppy said:


> In the mean-time, gas prices here continue to drop. $4.47 a gallon.


I paid about that much for 93 yesterday in the DFW area.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 14, 2022)

The reason gas prices are down is that China has been going through more Covid lockdowns. With them using less fuel being locked in their homes, the fuel supply has had a bit of time to catch up. As soon as their lockdowns are over, gas prices will rise again. Don’t assume the problem has been addressed or solved. That’s also why products are getting more scarce on the shelves and prices are going up.

As for the pollution problems in California, it used to be much worse when we used coal fired power plants. Now we use natural gas, wind, and solar. The ports in L.A. used to have a lot of diesel trucks sitting waiting for loads. Now they have to be natural gas or electric to go to the port. This law had an unintended consequence of slowing down pickups and drop offs of loads, however. The companies that didn’t want to change out their entire fleet to natural gas decided to buy one natural gas truck to stay by the port and load it with the load from the diesel trucks, then just drive the natural gas truck to the port and back about a mile, skirting the law and making it do nothing to reduce pollution.


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## idleprocess (Jul 14, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> The ports in L.A. used to have a lot of diesel trucks sitting waiting for loads. Now they have to be natural gas or electric to go to the port. This law had an unintended consequence of slowing down pickups and drop offs of loads, however. The companies that didn’t want to change out their entire fleet to natural gas decided to buy one natural gas truck to stay by the port and load it with the load from the diesel trucks, then just drive the natural gas truck to the port and back about a mile, skirting the law and making it do nothing to reduce pollution.


_Drayage_ has long been a discrete step in shipping port operations: cargo vessels must be loaded and offloaded in an expedient manner and dedicating vehicles to the task has been standard practice since before there were trucks. Given that diesels are not optimal for the short hops associated with drayage runs, replacing them with other energy sources - natural gas, electric, even hydrogen - represents low-hanging fruit to reduce air pollution, especially particulates.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 19, 2022)

Looks like that trucker work stoppage/protest/strike or whatever you want to call it now to protest A.B.5 happened again. This time, today, it was at the port in Oakland, CA. Just another slowdown of our goods making it to market. On the plus side, a potential rail worker strike that would have happened today got derailed by the President on Friday. This puts it on a 60 day hold before we have to worry about it again. Hopefully an agreement can be reached before this leads to a collapse of the supply chain in the U.S. You may not realize it now, but things are barely holding together. Won’t take much to crash the whole system. Hopefully we can keep things held together long enough to rebuild and make everything in the supply chain work again.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 21, 2022)

Amazon is starting a new policy after August 5, 2022. After that date, they will no longer allow sellers to sell Mylar storage bags. They will allow see through “Mylar” bags of clear or colored plastic (not Mylar). Apparently, some people use the bags to hide drugs, while 99.9999% use them to legitimately store food long term in case of a disaster, food shortages, or for backpacking (Mylar blocks food scents when traveling in bear country). Not sure if this is a new law they are trying to comply with or if they are just trying to cover their butts from liability, but if you want to preserve a bucket of beans, rice, etc. for long term storage, this might make that harder to do very soon.


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## knucklegary (Jul 21, 2022)

I thought the marijuana smugglers use a "seal a meal" vacuum bag system. Then alcohol wash and a bees wax cover, so the dope dogs can't detect.. 
I better load up on Mylar!


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 21, 2022)

Here's Amazon's mylar bag policy on their website:
https://sellercentral.amazon.com/forums/t/policy-update-affecting-mylar-bag-listings/1107662


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## PhotonWrangler (Jul 21, 2022)

So it looks like plain Mylar bags for static sensitive electronic parts will still be ok...? I hope.


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## idleprocess (Jul 21, 2022)

Hooked on Fenix said:


> Apparently, some people use the bags to hide drugs, while 99.9999% use them to legitimately store food long term in case of a disaster, food shortages, or for backpacking (Mylar blocks food scents when traveling in bear country).





knucklegary said:


> I thought the marijuana smugglers use a "seal a meal" vacuum bag system. Then alcohol wash and a bees wax cover, so the dope dogs can't detect..


Several years back I was vaguely acquainted with a fella at the makerspace who was selling odd grab bags of consumer goods - mostly cleaning products - on Amazon marketplace. Would spend hours at a time boxing up assortments either at the makerspace or out of a storage unit in the same facility where the makerspace also rented a unit. Had negative interest in conversation with anyone around when he was boxing these goods up.

Some time later I learned that he'd plead down a _big boy_ felony-level drug conviction _(in possession something like a kilo of weed and another kilo of hash oil)_ and managed to avoid jail time - probably rolled on his upstream supplier. It occurred to me that he was almost certainly selling drugs on Amazon via a highly obfuscated - if not invisible - listing with the cleaning products as disposable 'ballast' and to throw off detection.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 21, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> So it looks like plain Mylar bags for static sensitive electronic parts will still be ok...? I hope.


If it’s the aluminum foil Mylar bags that are not see through, probably not. Clear or single color plastic ones are okay. However, the ban is for storage bags so electronics shipped in Mylar bags with a label saying what they are printed on them, I suspect those might pass. They want your packages see through so they know what is in them. This couldn’t come at a worse time. We are dealing with a global food shortage with food prices skyrocketing. Being able to preserve food right now is like putting money in the bank minus the losses from inflation. Taking away the cheapest way to preserve food long term right now will likely go down in history as one of the dumbest moves of this century.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 22, 2022)

Looks like the trucker strike in California against A.B.5 is continuing. It has been shutting down the Port of Oakland all this week and shows no signs of stopping. Last week, the ports in L.A. were shut down for a day over this. This is going to seriously affect the supply chain on the West Coast. If they shut down the L.A. ports simultaneously, we won't have anything moving out West. Here's the news of it today:


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## bykfixer (Jul 24, 2022)

Yes, in spring of 2020 and there've been issues since.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Jul 24, 2022)

The U.S. has been unplugged. We’re still wrangling over control of the cord to try to plug it back in.


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## Poppy (Jul 24, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> View attachment 30086
> 
> Yes, in spring of 2020 and there've been issues since.


That was funny until you made it political. Lets continue to keep it clean, eh?


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## bykfixer (Jul 24, 2022)

It was not meant as political....America pulled the plug during the "15 days to slow the spread"... then another 30, right? How is that a political thing?
Then when America plugged back in circuits popped, strained chain links broke and things then went into a frenzy in various sectors leading to many of the current supply chain issues regardless of who is currently running the machine.
Nothing to do with politics... so perhaps it would be best to not read something into something that was not there.


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## knucklegary (Jul 24, 2022)

I read the sign just as rebooting America to make it work again. Where's the political implications?


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## Poppy (Jul 24, 2022)

Oh, I see that you stated SPRING of 2020, not the election of 2020. 

Your follow up post did a lot of clarification. 

Thanks
Poppy


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## bykfixer (Aug 1, 2022)

Yesterday I thought I was in the twighlight zone as the grocery store was loaded with masked people panic shopping. And the holes in between goods was very noticeable throughout the store.

Can't explain the masked people but the manager said they're loading the trucks at the warehouse to max capacity and sending bigger loads less often to save on the cost of fuel. So the holes were where the next giant load had not arrived yet.

I suppose the panic buying was get it before the price goes up (again). My bill is higher than a year ago but not all that much. Total bill is mainly higher from stocking up on sale items. A $4 item on sale for $2 was actually $2 regular price a year ago hence stocking up on sales stuff.


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## PhotonWrangler (Aug 1, 2022)

I'm seeing more mask wearing as the BA5 variant spreads. Some of the counties in my area are at high transmission rates again. The county I live in has elevated rates but I work in one of the "high" communities. On a positive note, I've read just today that there is evidence that the existing vaccines may produce some long term protection against severe illness even with the variants because they signal the B and/or T cells (adaptive immunity system) to keep a list of the specimens they've seen, long after the front-line antibodies have waned.


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## idleprocess (Aug 1, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I'm seeing more mask wearing as the BA5 variant spreads.


Masks had all but disappeared in my region ~6 months ago but they're back again to the point that you'll invariably see at least one customer wearing a mask at any establishment larger than a gas station.

Made a Costco run prior weekend / megalomart run this weekend and didn't notice any apparent shortages. Prices however remain significantly inflated.


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## turbodog (Aug 2, 2022)

Can't find mini oreo cookies. Sucks because I owe someone a bag due to a favor.

Edit:

I'm putting this here as it pertains to c-19 supply chain as in stuff you want during these times but can't find.

And that would be a complete antibody test showing natural/acquired/etc antibodies and vaccine/spike antibodies.

Tell your doctor you want *antibody test and to order "total & spike antibody"*. Appears that the word is _not_ out that this test data is available. I had to tell my dr today when he & the entire clinic staff was unaware this particular test existed.


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## orbital (Aug 6, 2022)

+

23 months ago * {let's just say two years ago}* I ordered some Hornady 90gr. reloads for my Tokarev.
_ 30 Cal. _

they arrived yesterday,,,,,,, beat that!


_______________________________
Hornady is a US company


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## PhotonWrangler (Aug 6, 2022)

I was waiting in the checkout line at one of the big chain retailers yesterday when I overheard the cashier telling the customer in front of me that they couldn't keep coffee creamer in stock. I haven't noticed this myself because I don't use the stuff but that surprised me a little bit. I've personally only noticed shortages of a particular flavor or variety of something. Nothing major.


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## xxo (Aug 6, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I was waiting in the checkout line at one of the big chain retailers yesterday when I overheard the cashier telling the customer in front of me that they couldn't keep coffee creamer in stock. I haven't noticed this myself because I don't use the stuff but that surprised me a little bit. I've personally only noticed shortages of a particular flavor or variety of something. Nothing major.


maybe people can't afford milk for their coffee?


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## PhotonWrangler (Aug 6, 2022)

xxo said:


> maybe people can't afford milk for their coffee?


Gosh, I hadn't thought of that. Good point, xxo.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Aug 6, 2022)

We don't use coffee creamer. Nevertheless, I'm pretty sure it's more expensive than milk. ...... just sayin.


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## PhotonWrangler (Aug 6, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> We don't use coffee creamer. Nevertheless, I'm pretty sure it's more expensive than milk. ...... just sayin.


I'm sure the fancy flavored ones are more expensive. I don't use creamer either, mostly because it's basically cornstarch with some other stuff mixed in. It does strange things to my stomach after drinking it.


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## orbital (Aug 6, 2022)

+

Personally quit drinking coffee a few months back after drinking coffee regularly for about 35 years.

Factoring in everything;
to buy the beans, grind it, brew it, the milk, cleaning up stuff, all the extra electricity use ect, ect.
= factoring in everything. approx $3/day

*That's $10,000 in ten years that I can use for.... actual food.*


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## bykfixer (Aug 7, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> We don't use coffee creamer. Nevertheless, I'm pretty sure it's more expensive than milk. ...... just sayin.


The liquid stuff has been hit and miss at my local grocery store for a while now. We don't use it either but I see it beside the quart size milk containers where we shop. And yes it is quite a bit more expensive than milk. It must be popular because shelf space for the stuff is vast.

Powdered type? Can't say that's very popular where I shop judging by the shelf space. 

I can take or leave coffee but Mrs Fixer requires the stuff. Health concerns has caused me to avoid cafinated beverages so I switched to de-caf coffee at one point. Mrs Fixer nearly crashed her car each day in the morning commute at first but she's gotten used to the greatly reduced amount of caffiene. She's a keeper, that one. 

There was a time during the pandemic that decaf coffee was non existent at my local grocer. I don't think Mrs Fixer was very bothered by that. I'd just drink trop 50 reduced calorie orange juice instead of coffee.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Aug 7, 2022)

There could be a strike at Costco soon with the Costco Teamsters. They are working under an expired contract and are preparing to strike if they don't reach a deal soon. Here's the information directly from their website: https://teamster.org/2022/08/teamsters-edge-closer-to-a-national-work-stoppage-at-costco/

I hope this gets resolved before a strike. I did not spend $60 extra a year to pay to go to a store where I have to cross picket lines to get overpriced groceries. Looks like they might only makeup 20% of the workforce countrywide, but probably a high percentage of those are truck drivers bringing the goods to the store. This could get bad quick. Let's pray it doesn't happen.


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## Poppy (Aug 7, 2022)

I wouldn't cross the picket line.

We are a pro union family.


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## bridgman (Aug 7, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> I was waiting in the checkout line at one of the big chain retailers yesterday when I overheard the cashier telling the customer in front of me that they couldn't keep coffee creamer in stock.


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## PhotonWrangler (Aug 7, 2022)

Lol. So THAT'S where all the creamer went! I love the Mythbusters. RIP Grant.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Aug 7, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I wouldn't cross the picket line.
> 
> We are a pro union family.


 
I'm proud to a union man 
I make those meetings when I can, yeah 
I pay my dues ahead of time 
When the benefits come I'm last in line, yeah.

I'm proud to be a union man.

Every fourth Friday at 10 am 
There's a local meeting of the A F of M, yeah!

This meeting will now come to order 
Is there any new business?

Yeah, I think 'Live music are better' 
Bumper stickers should be issued.

What was that?

'Live music is better' bumper stickers 
Should be issued

The gentleman says 
'Live music is better' bumper stickers 
Should be issued 
All in favor of what he said 
Signify by sayin' "ay"

Ay!

If, however, you are opposed 
Signify by saying "no".

I'm proud to be a union man. 

- Neil Young


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## Poppy (Aug 7, 2022)

The Sherman Anti-trust act prohibits my profession from forming a union. We therefore do not have one. If it was permitted, I'd be at the forefront, of forming one.


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## knucklegary (Aug 7, 2022)

Jimmy Hoffa was a proud union man. He took bribes from the wrong people..
I was a Teamster for 13yrs. Getting an honorable withdrawal was not an easy task. Union leaders don't like their brothers leaving..
I never looked back.


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## idleprocess (Aug 7, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> I was a Teamster for 13yrs. Getting an honorable withdrawal was not an easy task. Union leaders don't like their brothers leaving..
> I never looked back.


Back when I was paid by the hour I joined the union (TX is a right to work state). The _seniority is everything_ metric baked into the contract was demoralizing and bad for organizational efficacy but I persisted ... until the union negotiated down the generous tuition assistance benefit to the same as management had _and didn't tell anyone about it - _*then* I sought an exit. Didn't bother consulting with the union outside of reading up on the procedures in the contract since I knew they'd be unhelpful at best - there was a ~30 day window and the request to withdraw had to be sent to both the union local and some HR droid (who was also unhelpful); sent certified mail that arrived within the first 4 days of the window and was pleasantly surprised when at the end of the window dues obligingly ceased to be deducted. I was also out of room within the contract - but one position with a better pay grade utterly inaccessible to my role - so it was an extremely easy response when offered a management job doing the 'special project' I'd started a ~year prior.

And really, my dispute with unions is not one of their existence but typical CBA structure. Unions tend to build contracts as if the status quo at the time of their inking will remain for at least the entire career of someone hired at the same time and this simply hasn't been the case for many decades. Job classifications can come and go in a matter of years and employees in those roles need to adapt to change faster than unions have historically been willing to accept. And in this business environment, _hire date seniority_ should not and cannot be the primary consideration for promotions, schedules, training opportunities, project assignment, etc - making it so destroys morale and saps initiative.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Aug 8, 2022)

This seems to be a pattern lately with businesses. With inflation skyrocketing, people want more money for their labor to keep up with their devaluing paycheck. They feel that after the Covid layoffs of all the people that didn’t get the shot, companies had plenty of money stored up to pay them a massive wage increase now since they had less workers to pay then. That is not how the world works. Companies look to future profitability for whether or not it’s cost effective to increase wages, not back to money already in shareholders’ pockets from past earnings. When we are going into a recession, companies will be looking at every possible way to cut costs, and unfortunately that doesn’t include increasing pay dramatically. It sucks for everyone, but people aren’t going to get big raises to keep up with massive inflation, nor are prices going to come down on necessities for consumers anytime soon. As long as we have too many dollars chasing too few goods, we’ll have problems with inflation. As long as we have too few workers making those goods, this will continue. Too few workers chasing after more dollars chasing after too few goods (made by too few workers) is the recipe for an inflationary death spiral. These worker strikes are just the beginning. A lot of businesses have been struggling to survive with inflation, supply chain issues, government regulations, minimum wage increases, etc. You may find that when the dust settles, many businesses will decide to cut their losses and go out of business rather than pay what they don’t think they can afford to employees wanting a raise. The Railroad workers may strike in mid September. Many of the truck drivers in California already have gone on strike due to AB5. The port workers in California are still without a contract and almost went on strike already. The President intervened. The pharmacists at Ralph’s, Vons, Albertsons, and Pavillions in San Diego have voted to strike but no official date has been set for the strike. A hotel near ComicCon in San Diego decided to strike during the time of the convention. While I get that people want to pick a side (pro union or not), remember that we lose no matter what. They get their raise, our grocery prices go up. The don’t get their raise, we can’t get our groceries when they strike.


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## bykfixer (Aug 8, 2022)

When I was a kid a local grocery store was all union. They went out of business. Back then a bagger made a good wage. Today the bagger job does not exist at many grocery stores.

My step-son drives for a big delivery company and is all about the union. I asked about the job he had in the company prior and he said "oh a robot does that now" like it was nothing.

The thing I find such a dis-service in many union jobs is a person does a role and only that role. Ok that's great until that role is no longer needed. And over the years I have heard "that aint my job" by so many that just didn't want to, it's ridiculous. Then later they get all bitter beer face when that "job" is replaced.


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## Poppy (Aug 28, 2022)

It seems that I am seeing beef prices come down a bit.

A couple of days ago, it was mentioned on a local news station that the more expensive cuts of meat have dropped in price. They suggested that it might be due to supply and demand, and with food cost inflation that people may be buying less costly cuts of meat, or switching to chicken. IE Lower demand... lower price.

During the same time frame, there was a reporter with a NY State farmer, who stated that the drought caused his feed hay crop to be reduced to about 20% of normal. And a cattle farmer stated that they may need to send their beef to slaughter sooner due to the reduced amount of food. And therefore the increased cost of grain or hay.

I wonder, if beef prices will continue to drop, and then skyrocket? When I see it on sale, should I consider picking it up and freezing it?

Your thoughts?


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## orbital (Aug 28, 2022)

Poppy said:


> ...
> 
> Your thoughts?


+

Ask Putin what kind of games he will play w/ natural gas to Europe
& I'll give you a definitive answer.

*everything *comes down to oil/gas price.
_____________________________
Well, our Federal Reserve is a big factor too.


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## bykfixer (Aug 28, 2022)

Yup, if it's on sale. The days of a 10oz new yourk strip for $5 are few and far between any more. London broil makes a great crock pot meal so if that's on sale get a big one and cut it in half or thirds. 
Just my 2 cents


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## knucklegary (Aug 28, 2022)

This week I bought top sirloin $3.97 lb.. I look for the finger strip cuts. I'll purchase a large package then break down into smaller 2 steaks per freezer bag.. 
New York cuts will go on sale at $6 lb. When prices are so high, nobody's buying them then stores will put the on sales.. Works for me.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Aug 28, 2022)

The reason you’ll find steak temporarily on sale now is that a lot of farmers had to cull their herds because they couldn’t afford feed for their cows. Take advantage of it while you can, because with fewer cows, the prices will soon skyrocket.


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## turbodog (Aug 29, 2022)

orbital said:


> +
> 
> Ask Putin what kind of games he will play w/ natural gas to Europe
> & I'll give you a definitive answer.
> ...



The herd I help dad manage... we don't have enough rain so the grazing fields are eaten down to a nub. Culled/sold ~20% of the herd week before last.

Depending on how much rain is received for the remainder of the year will determine final hay cutting yield which will determine how many head we can support over the winter.

But it ain't lookin' good.

The recent flooding rains have caused the fields to jump up... but now they need cutting/baling and too wet to enter with heavy equipment. Grass/hay quality declines if not cut/baled at the right time.


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## scout24 (Aug 29, 2022)

Last year this time, the farmers around me were doing a 3rd hay cutting this week. This year, about half have managed a very poor 2nd cutting by this same time. Looked more like cutting the lawn than the hay fields. Corn is terrible too, both feed and sweet. So little rain...


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## orbital (Aug 29, 2022)

^

*Good points above.*
Weather, commodity prices on everything, do matter alot.

Cargo shipping costs and/or then trucking those goods, really effect prices at the store.

If oil went to $70, and stayed there for a while, dot dot dot


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## knucklegary (Aug 29, 2022)

turbodog said:


> The herd I help dad manage... we don't have enough rain so the grazing fields are eaten down to a nub. Culled/sold ~20% of the herd week before last.
> 
> Depending on how much rain is received for the remainder of the year will determine final hay cutting yield which will determine how many head we can support over the winter.
> 
> ...


In wet conditions where heavy equipment can't be used, what about hand sickles?

Kernel will be up to the job, good workout for his obliques.


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## bykfixer (Aug 29, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> In wet conditions where heavy equipment can't be used, what about hand sickles?
> 
> Kernel will be up to the job, good workout for his obliques.


Hand sickles cost money to operate at the speed of the heavy equipment. Lot's of dudes swinging blades back and forth get paid by the hour these days, where the tractor might be rented from another farmer or owned by the company. Payments per month for the equipment would be about a days total pay for enough people to handle it. It aint like in the movies where the town gets together and saves the day anymore.

When I worked near feed grass fields I noticed hawks would gather and sit on telephone wires or fences etc like pigeons. Then along comes this big ole tractor and starts cutting the field. It was an all you can eat buffet of rabbits, snakes, mice etc for those hawks for the next few days. Then after it dried some a bailer would roll up wind rows of stuff and it was on again. Those hawks got so fat they practically needed a running start to fly away.
The big dairy farm was about 20 miles away.


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## turbodog (Aug 29, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> In wet conditions where heavy equipment can't be used, what about hand sickles?
> 
> ...


Step away from the crack pipe.


----------



## knucklegary (Aug 29, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Step away from the crack pipe.


Haha! Guess I watch too many old Westerns


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## Hooked on Fenix (Aug 30, 2022)

With all these supply chain problems with food, I ordered myself a couple 1 lb. #10 cans of Augason Farm non hybrid and non gmo Vegetable Garden Seeds to start growing crops on my family’s property next year after we hopefully get some rain. Cost around $36 a can on Amazon and says it will yield about 2300 lbs. of produce with 13 varieties of plants (probably needs about an acre of land, good soil, and a lot of fertilizer). Has green beans, carrots, corn, cucumbers, cantaloupe, onions, peas, bell peppers, lettuce, spinach, squash, tomatoes, and zucchini. Has a 4+ year shelf life sealed. Plan to use one can for the next 1-2 seasons and keep the second can in reserve as needed. Considering where we are at in a supply chain crisis, it seemed like cheap insurance to prevent future starvation.


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## turbodog (Aug 30, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> Haha! Guess I watch too many old Westerns



Cutting around 75 acres hay if I recall. I got in a crop by hand once... picked 7 acres corn by hand due to field being too wet.

Never again.


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## scout24 (Aug 30, 2022)

HoF- Good plan on the seeds. We have a good stock of them here, but I'm always on the lookout for more.


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## greatscoot (Aug 31, 2022)

Back at the end of June I ordered a wireless access point for a client and kept getting the run around o a delivery. Talked to another one of my vendors and said orders placed now wouldn’t deliver until January.
Today I had the opportunity to talk to a vendor rep, who said ”don’t count on January”. Cisco and Aruba are having major delivery issues as well due to chip shortages,


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## turbodog (Aug 31, 2022)

greatscoot said:


> Back at the end of June I ordered a wireless access point for a client and kept getting the run around o a delivery. Talked to another one of my vendors and said orders placed now wouldn’t deliver until January.
> Today I had the opportunity to talk to a vendor rep, who said ”don’t count on January”. Cisco and Aruba are having major delivery issues as well due to chip shortages,



Yup. I abandoned cisco AP a while back. Went to ubiquiti... have never regretted it.


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## bykfixer (Sep 2, 2022)

scout24 said:


> HoF- Good plan on the seeds. We have a good stock of them here, but I'm always on the lookout for more.


Where can I get Dorito seeds?


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## jtr1962 (Sep 2, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Where can I get Dorito seeds?


If you find any I'm in. Let's have a group buy!


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## Hooked on Fenix (Sep 3, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Where can I get Dorito seeds?


You can’t. They’re a closely guarded secret held by Monsanto. If the secret got out, it would end world hunger followed by causing an epidemic of obesity.


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## PhotonWrangler (Sep 3, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Yup. I abandoned cisco AP a while back. Went to ubiquiti... have never regretted it.


I needed to order a little ethernet interface board for a device. Our usual vendor said that it would be many months before they could get them in stock. Luckily I found some in stock at DigiKey and had one within a few days. Sometimes you have to just keep looking after the first avenue says "fuggeddaboutit."


----------



## jtr1962 (Oct 1, 2022)

I mentioned this earlier in the thread half-jokingly but it looks like it will become reality:



Recycled human urine, also known as ‘peecycling,’ may soon be used to fertilize crops — here’s why



_There's a new alternative to fertilizers that could transform the world of agriculture: human urine. It sounds gross and almost unbelievable, but the multitude of money-saving and environmental perks of "peecycling" are too massive to ignore. _


----------



## knucklegary (Oct 1, 2022)

Hey, not funny, there's a lot of good vitamins in my wizz, goes down the drain every day


----------



## Hooked on Fenix (Oct 1, 2022)

In California, we’re one step ahead of recycling your pee. They legalized human composting. You can now recycle yourself as compost to leave behind something for the next generation, of trees. We’re just a step away from Soylent Green.


----------



## bykfixer (Oct 1, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> I mentioned this earlier in the thread half-jokingly but it looks like it will become reality:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Molorganite fertilizer is used on slopes after fires. It began as golf course fertilizer in the early 20th century. It's waste from humans.

Pig feces is used in asphalts these days....


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## turbodog (Oct 4, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> I mentioned this earlier in the thread half-jokingly but it looks like it will become reality:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The labor/cost/etc required to aggregate/process sufficient quantities relegate this as a science experiment.


----------



## jtr1962 (Oct 4, 2022)

turbodog said:


> The labor/cost/etc required to aggregate/process sufficient quantities relegate this as a science experiment.


It's obviously not yet in the mass implementation stage. The fact it's even being discussed is a bit of a surprise since I didn't think the idea was even feasible enough to merit serious consideration.


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## turbodog (Oct 4, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> It's obviously not yet in the mass implementation stage. The fact it's even being discussed is a bit of a surprise since I didn't think the idea was even feasible enough to merit serious consideration.



Economically, no. Technologically... not surprised in the least, because as every country person knows...


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## bykfixer (Oct 4, 2022)

My grocery bill has literally doubled this year. Supply is plentiful, but part of that is stuff is just sitting on the shelf collecting dust.


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## Hooked on Fenix (Oct 5, 2022)

Some people just see all these high prices and write a song about it. Helps keep things a bit less painful when you can keep your sense of humor during the hard times.


----------



## mickb (Oct 7, 2022)

I work in international logistics and supply chains.

The pandemic effect on the supply chain was a rort. They parked the worlds fleets up, the sea containers( 20 and 40ft , which most consumables in your life are shipped in) meant to be at sea 50% of the time, now needed land storage. So the big companies instead....scrapped them. Thats right. The smaller fleets became insolvent and were bought out, the port authorities and companies in the world got on board and increased berthing fees through the roof (I am talking hundreds of % here) further hammering smaller operators.
The big companies having broken every anti-monopolisation law we have invented the last 100 years, started making containers again, now having desperate markets , and then started breaking every global price gouging law we have. 12 months into the pandemic container shipping costs had gone from about $800 between two countries to $8000.

These costs were finally passed onto you which is part of the reason everything from textiles( clothing), silicon components, metals, raw materials, industrial chemicals, meat, food ingredients all began jumping in price about 5-10% per quarter into 2021.

About 1 year after this Putin invaded the Ukraine and was blamed for all this inflation. If he is resonsible he truly is dangerous because evidently the guy is in possession of a time travelling machine with a range of at least minus 1 year.

Effecting mass sector prices jumps before invading anywhere is no mean feat even with his time machine. Not sure if even Lex Luthor could pull that off? maybe Thanos could though but only with the infinity gauntlet.


----------



## turbodog (Oct 7, 2022)

mickb said:


> I work in international logistics and supply chains.
> 
> The pandemic effect on the supply chain was a rort. They parked the worlds fleets up, the sea containers( 20 and 40ft , which most consumables in your life are shipped in) meant to be at sea 50% of the time, now needed land storage. So the big companies instead....scrapped them. Thats right. The smaller fleets became insolvent and were bought out, the port authorities and companies in the world got on board and increased berthing fees through the roof (I am talking hundreds of % here) further hammering smaller operators.
> The big companies having broken every anti-monopolisation law we have invented the last 100 years, started making containers again, now having desperate markets , and then started breaking every global price gouging law we have. 12 months into the pandemic container shipping costs had gone from about $800 between two countries to $8000.
> ...



I've noticed that trans oceanic container freight prices are significantly down from their peak and still falling.


----------



## aznsx (Oct 7, 2022)

This should help with our 'supply chain' issues. Yes, it certainly is more than just about a 'pandemic'. There's an epidemic of stupidity fueling this 'issue' too:









Trucking jobs evaporate as shortage worsens


The truck transportation sector saw a loss of 11,400 jobs in September, according to U.S. Department of Labor data, as the trucker shortage continued.




www.foxbusiness.com


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## Hooked on Fenix (Oct 7, 2022)

aznsx said:


> This should help with our 'supply chain' issues. Yes, it certainly is more than just about a 'pandemic'. There's an epidemic of stupidity fueling this 'issue' too:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If you think that’s bad, wait until January. California has a law on the books that takes effect in January 2023 that makes it so all semi trucks must be 2010 or newer (must take diesel exhaust fluid, which is in short supply) to operate in the state. This includes trucks coming from out of state. Could be a loss of close to 75,000+ trucks in state plus many out of state trucks will be banned from coming into California to pick up the slack from the sudden loss of distribution. If you think you don’t live in California so this doesn’t effect you, remember that this will put a major bottleneck at the ports and prevent other states from getting their goods too. It restricts all trucks before 2010 from coming into the state. All states will have to follow California’s stupid law to pass through to get their goods.


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## turbodog (Oct 7, 2022)

aznsx said:


> This should help with our 'supply chain' issues. Yes, it certainly is more than just about a 'pandemic'. There's an epidemic of stupidity fueling this 'issue' too:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Is that net loss or scaremongering by ignoring new hires? And what fraction of that labor segment does 11k people represent?


----------



## orbital (Oct 7, 2022)

+

*scaremongering is big business, basically because most people are easily told what to think*

the manipulation of sentiment


----------



## raggie33 (Oct 7, 2022)

I still waer a mask but I hate being sick even colds suck


----------



## aznsx (Oct 7, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Is that net loss or scaremongering by ignoring new hires? And what fraction of that labor segment does 11k people represent?



Good questions, and I don't know the labor side of the equation _at all_, but was rather entirely focused (personally) on the big screen grab on that page from the broadcast storyline "Diesel Prices Impacting Trucking Companies", and the link below it "Rapid Rise in Diesel Prices Squeezing Truckers". Nobody has to explain that when fuel goes up significantly, trucking is significantly (negatively) affected. How that translates to changes in their staffing, I have no idea, but I'll go out on a limb and conclude that staffing can't go up.

Now back to my intended (although not explicitly conveyed) point, which is that the drastic increase in diesel (and gasoline) costs in recent times most likely should not have and didn't need to happen, and the aforementioned 'stupidity' is attributed to those whose actions have contributed to that (probably) unnecessary rise in fuel costs. I'm not naming names. It doesn't matter at this point. It's history. I'll just talk about my fuel costs for now, since I just filled my tank and was pretty unhappy (and won't even say with whom)


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## Hooked on Fenix (Oct 8, 2022)

What is causing a lot of truckers to quit is they literally are losing money working. If you had to pay to work instead of making money, you’d quit too. A lot of the truck drivers spend long hours waiting at ports to pick up and drop off loads. Sometimes they wait with their engines idling for 8-10 hours. Since they usually get paid based on mileage, they often don’t get paid for a full day of work while using expensive diesel fuel. Before the supply chain crisis, they could absorb some time waiting for loads without it cutting into their pocketbooks much, but not a whole day. They need to redo the way they pay truckers to include time waiting for loads (pay them all hourly), or soon we won’t have many truckers left.


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## aznsx (Oct 8, 2022)

orbital said:


> +
> 
> *scaremongering is big business, basically because most people are easily told what to think*
> 
> the manipulation of sentiment


Yeah, there's both fear mongering, and cheer mongering that goes on. If you ask me, I think there's just way too much 'mongering' in general, from all the mongerers!


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## mickb (Oct 8, 2022)

turbodog said:


> I've noticed that trans oceanic container freight prices are significantly down from their peak and still falling.


They shouldnt have peaked at all being the point. And the issue is the cargo price is still climbing, aka the industrial raw materials, components and consumer goods contributing to your lifestyle and mine.


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## turbodog (Oct 8, 2022)

mickb said:


> They shouldnt have peaked at all being the point. And the issue is the cargo price is still climbing, aka the industrial raw materials, components and consumer goods contributing to your lifestyle and mine.


Care to explain how any business, freight or otherwise, delivers the same quantity of output despite having less labor to work with due to a pandemic...

The workers that are well work overtime, which costs more. Ordering online spiked greatly, which exacerbated the issue as supply chains placed large orders in an effort to raise stock levels.

Most businesses operate at close to peak output levels... it's efficient. Does not take much of a disruption on ANY of the needed inputs to wreck the process, and c-19's effects touched everything: energy, raw materials, labor, etc.

This little adventure exposed systemic weaknesses, bottlenecks, and plenty of areas for arbitrage.






Xeneta Shipping Index


The Xeneta Shipping Index (XSI®) delivers the most in-depth and most accurate representation of the container freight market.




xsi.xeneta.com


----------



## mickb (Oct 8, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Care to explain how any business, freight or otherwise, delivers the same quantity of output despite having less labor to work with due to a pandemic...



Care to explain how any business sector jumps 900 % in inflation with the same labour issues when the majority of others dont? ;

Did you find the postal service in your country went to $50 to post a letter, did domestic shipping/transport/rail jump 9x over. Did manufacture jump this amount? Did you start buying flashlights for $1000 with $300 shipping because nitecore and UPS had 'less labor to work with"




turbodog said:


> This little adventure exposed systemic weaknesses, bottlenecks, and plenty of areas for arbitrage.


What it failed to exposed is Price gouging, market manipulation and about every anti-monopolisation skullduggery across a specific sector.

And for which costs are still 200% too high, thanks to all the small players pushed out of the market.



turbodog said:


> Xeneta Shipping Index
> 
> 
> The Xeneta Shipping Index (XSI®) delivers the most in-depth and most accurate representation of the container freight market.
> ...



Now show me the graph for raw materials, textiles, FMCG dropping in the same way. Id love to see that, so would my family.

I agree there are a lot of things going on in the world yes, not to mention the bungled sanctions against putin. Trade sanctions are meant to be weaponised economics directed at one country. These ones appear to be doing more damage to world economy . Maybe someone needs to send the guys at the UN and NATO a pocket calculator to help with the math here. lol.

But the laws broken during the pandemic, particularly the ones designed to protect markets during vulnerable times, were unnacceptable and unbelievable.

I guarantee none of the supply fat cats , major distributors, big 4 shippers or super-retailers are taking a hit over it either. Maybe we need a graph of Jeff Bezos net worth for the last 3 years?


----------



## turbodog (Oct 8, 2022)

mickb said:


> Care to explain how any business sector jumps 900 % in inflation with the same labour issues when the majority of others dont? ;
> 
> Did you find the postal service in your country went to $50 to post a letter, did domestic shipping/transport/rail jump 9x over. Did manufacture jump this amount? Did you start buying flashlights for $1000 with $300 shipping because nitecore and UPS had 'less labor to work with"
> ...



Take a breath...

Postal volume has been dropping for years, a small uptick is not going to throw their business performance into disarray.

Trans-oceanic freight has been growing for years, and port capacity has been _tight_ due to a variety of reasons. So, given the huge increase in moving goods during c-19, it's not surprising at all that a business, sitting at the intersection of multiple resource-constrained inputs, will have drastic issues.

Speaking of Amazon... they saw the port issue coming years ago and negotiated with the smaller ports in the US to lock in availability & pricing. They also essentially bought their own oceangoing fleet and are registered, thus lessening the effects of c-19's supply chain issues. So, I'd say Bezo's wealth is very well earned and deserved.









Amazon is Leasing Planes and Manufacturing Their Own Containers for Faster Shipping


Amazon is bypassing the supply chain with chartered ships and long-haul planes.




www.techtimes.com













Amazon is making its own containers and bypassing supply chain chaos with chartered ships and long-haul planes


Amazon is avoiding supply chain chaos by making its own containers, chartering ships and leasing long-haul planes to get goods from China to the U.S. faster




www.cnbc.com


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## turbodog (Oct 8, 2022)

mickb said:


> ...
> 
> Now show me the graph for raw materials, textiles, FMCG dropping in the same way. Id love to see that, so would my family.
> ...



Prices from shipping (up or down) take months to be reflected at the cash register.


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## turbodog (Oct 8, 2022)

Copper pricing:







Aluminum:






Any more questions?

Edit: In the US, there's a serious labor shortage. Due to c-19, some people exited the job market and have not returned. Some were killed by c-19. We just passed peak boomer-retirement/day also. And we are short ~2M immigrant workers.

So... a need for workers and no workers = increase pay for workers, leading to higher than normal inflation. 

We did this to ourselves by promoting a huge population bubble (boomers), c-19 poor handling, and cutting back on immigration.


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## bykfixer (Oct 8, 2022)

So let me get this straight, labor shortage means higher wages means the record inflation we now face? 
And cutting back on imigration? Really? I can't wait to see the charts and graphs to support that line of thinking.


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## mickb (Oct 8, 2022)

> any more questions



Sure, the same one I already asked.

What other industries jumped 900% like shipping did, as per your explanation it being due to reduced labor. Still waiting here..

Nice cherry picking on those two commodities too.

Try these ones on for size
textile and apparel, polyester production, cements, plastics, allied chemicals, resins, fertilizers, toral manufacturing costs, total consumer price indexes , ALL COMMODITIES graph, ETC ETC ETC, download more at your leisure. You might want to put your climbing shoes on to handle the 2020-2022 part of the graphs 









Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities


Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities (PPIACO) from Jan 1913 to Aug 2022 about commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.



fred.stlouisfed.org












Producer Price Index by Commodity: Textile Products and Apparel: Polyester Manufactured Fibers


Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Textile Products and Apparel: Polyester Manufactured Fibers (WPU031502411) from Jun 2011 to May 2022 about fiber, textiles, apparel, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.



fred.stlouisfed.org












Producer Price Index by Commodity: Textile Products and Apparel: Finished Cotton Broadwoven Fabrics


Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Textile Products and Apparel: Finished Cotton Broadwoven Fabrics (WPU034201) from Dec 1975 to Aug 2022 about cotton, finished, textiles, apparel, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.



fred.stlouisfed.org












Producer Price Index by Commodity: Textile Products and Apparel: Polyester Manufactured Fibers


Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Textile Products and Apparel: Polyester Manufactured Fibers (WPU031502411) from Jun 2011 to May 2022 about fiber, textiles, apparel, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.



fred.stlouisfed.org












Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average


View data of the CPI, or an inflation measure derived from tracking the changes in the weighted-average price of a basket of common goods and services.



fred.stlouisfed.org





And I'd be most interested to hear about "savings at the cash register" coming in a few months. Can you let me know when these occur exactly so I can be ready to have the same standard of living I used to?

I dont mean to be greedy but as a bunch of the worlds richest doubled and tripled their net worth during this disaster and continue to make bank during this Russia/ukraine sanction debacle, surely its not too hard with all that money coming in, to give the common man his 10-15% back?


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## turbodog (Oct 9, 2022)

If you're saying that the world's wealthiest are the cause here, you're trying to reduce a very *complex *event into one central boogeyman.

If you took the world's richest, divided up the loot (somehow magically), spread it out equally over the time it took to acquire it (decades), then everyone would get a few hundred bucks a year, if that much. Do the math.

There are _several_ _major_ macroeconomic factors at play here. They will take a *while* to unwind, but they will. And it will be mainly capitalistic competition, not gov't action, that drives prices downward, selection upward, and quality upward.


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## thermal guy (Oct 9, 2022)

Isn’t the pandemic over?


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## orbital (Oct 9, 2022)

thermal guy said:


> Isn’t the pandemic over?


+

*It was over last year.*

The economic mess from many overreactions has soaked into everything.


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## KITROBASKIN (Oct 9, 2022)

Thanks TD for some words of encouragement:

There are _several_ _major_ macroeconomic factors at play here. They will take a *while* to unwind, but they will. And it will be mainly capitalistic competition, not gov't action, that drives prices downward, selection upward, and quality upward.


----------



## orbital (Oct 9, 2022)

+

quick note:

Earlier this Spring I bought some oil filters for my car for $5.xx ..couple months later they were $9.xx
This is not supply & demand, nor that the 4 cents of steel went up 8.

Do you think higher interest rates will lower the cost of those filters??


----------



## knucklegary (Oct 9, 2022)

Actually, if you're talking about Wix XT filters, (made in USA) then it is supply and demand.
I can't speak for other brands, but I know my Wix filter has been scarce for these last two years. And, that is due to lack of production, since employees get paid more (gov't money) to stay home than return to work.. It has absolutely nothing to due with high or low interest rates.


----------



## jtr1962 (Oct 9, 2022)

turbodog said:


> If you're saying that the world's wealthiest are the cause here, you're trying to reduce a very *complex *event into one central boogeyman.
> 
> If you took the world's richest, divided up the loot (somehow magically), spread it out equally over the time it took to acquire it (decades), then everyone would get a few hundred bucks a year, if that much. Do the math.


That's assuming a zero sum game. A few hundred more a year in the hands of the middle class, instead of the wealthy, is far more likely to be pumped right back into the economy. This in turn grows the economy, and the total wealth. Compound doing this over a few decades. The wealthy are still wealthy, but they end up with a smaller percentage of the overall pie (which is much larger than before).

If we want a real boogeyman, it's neoliberal economics which has failed everyone but the wealthy:



Column: How did America get addicted to a policy that fails everyone but the rich?




turbodog said:


> There are _several_ _major_ macroeconomic factors at play here. They will take a *while* to unwind, but they will. And it will be mainly capitalistic competition, not gov't action, that drives prices downward, selection upward, and quality upward.


There are several bubbles that need to be popped first. The main one is real estate, and the secondary ones are in the stock market and commodities. Interest rates need to return to historical norms. That means savings accounts paying 5%, and mortgages at 7% or 8%. The last two decades have decimated those who depend upon interest income to survive. As a result, they had to roll the dice and put money in the stock markets to have any hope of a decent return. That helped inflate the markets.

Speculation (mostly in real estate and commodities) aren't helping things, either. Those could both end with a simple change in rules, especially real estate speculation. It should be illegal to rent single family homes, or for a corporation to own them. Ditto for trailer parks. Anyone buying commodities should have to demonstrate that they're an end user, not a middleman. While some of inflation is indeed simply supply and demand, a lot of it is manipulation of markets by those with the resources to do so.


----------



## jtr1962 (Oct 9, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> And, that is due to lack of production, since employees get paid more (gov't money) to stay home than return to work.. It has absolutely nothing to due with high or low interest rates.


That boogeyman ended last year when the enhanced UI and expanded child tax credits both died.

A lot of people close to retirement decided to just retire. We lost over a million people to covid. Easily ten times that number have long covid and may not be able to work again. Quite a few people decided to start their own businesses, rather than continue to be wage slaves. And we're short a few million illegal immigrants who would fill a lot of the jobs with worker shortages.

I personally see automation as the only long-term solution. The largest demographic (the boomers) will be completely out of the work force in less than a decade. There just aren't enough younger workers to replace them one for one. Automation to enhance their productivity is what we need, but that takes time to come online.


----------



## jtr1962 (Oct 9, 2022)

mickb said:


> I dont mean to be greedy but as a bunch of the worlds richest doubled and tripled their net worth during this disaster and continue to make bank during this Russia/ukraine sanction debacle, surely its not too hard with all that money coming in, to give the common man his 10-15% back?


That requires a rollback on the part of the wealthy of how much money they think they "deserve" to make. Case in point are banks. Until maybe the 1970s, banks profited solely on the margin (the difference in rates between what was paid on savings accounts, and what was charged for loans). This was typically 2% or 3% (i.e. savings accounts paid 5%, mortgages were 7% or 8%). Then they started getting into credit cards and saw they could make a lot more. After that they started with fees on savings and checking accounts. To make a long story short banks became a lot more profitable by gradually sucking more and more money from working class people. On the other side all industries did it by increasing wages slower than general inflation, making real wages lower. They did it all slowly, like boiling a frog in a pot of water. Anyone notice the drive to make software subscription based, instead of just a one-time purchase? Often financing gave greater margins than the product being sold, as was the case for GM and others. Private companies even profited enormously on student loans, with all sorts of illegal collection fees designed to ensure people with loans are paying them for the rest of their lives. The end design of this is to ensure a large fraction of the population is living paycheck to paycheck, so they have a ready supply of desperate workers willing to work for near slave wages at jobs with no future.

The one common theme in all of the above is investors got higher returns than before, and got used to those returns to the point where they now feel entitled to them. I've read if companies simply returned to 1990s profit margins, that would end inflation. They wouldn't be doing charity work, simply getting the kinds of profits they were happy getting 30 years ago, instead of today's obscene profits. The working man would get his 10% to 15% back and then some. But for now they won't do it. Maybe people need to start boycotting buying anything they can until the prices drop.


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## bykfixer (Oct 9, 2022)

Shortage of legal (or illegal) imigrant workers? So the 8 to 20 million illegals already here just went back home? The influx was stemmed some during covid no doubt but there is definitely not a shortage of imigrants still here.

The gubment printing some $10 trillion in monopoly money may have played a part in the runaway inflation? Hmmmm, nah couldn't be. Nor is that ESG thing deciding who gets to win and who does not, or the absolute monsoon of regulations coming out of Washington DC and state houses? Nah, not that, those are the good guys doing it "for the children".

Meanwhile more and more perfectly healthy people of all age groups collect government assistance because it's cheaper to stay at home than it is to got buy a car, insure it, pay the taxes and fees, fuel it to drive it to a part time job. Plus the requirements to work have become so relaxed there are homes with 3rd and 4th generations of Americans who have never held a job.

Sure the gubment figures say record low unemployment but they only count the people looking for work. They say jobs are being created because more people are being hired but the truth is a large swath is people taking on a second job, even a third.

Sadly the truth many don't want to hear is it's all being done on purpose. Done by the people who many think actually have their best interest. Much of it done by folks invisible to the watching world on a global scale.

Covid-19 was a test. A test many of us failed.


----------



## orbital (Oct 9, 2022)

knucklegary said:


> Actually, if you're talking about Wix XT filters, (made in USA) then it is supply and demand.
> I can't speak for other brands, but I know my Wix filter has been scarce for these last two years. And, that is due to lack of production, since employees get paid more (gov't money) to stay home than return to work.. It has absolutely nothing to due with high or low interest rates.


+

It wasn't Wix or any specialty brand.
Mine are about as hard to find as cans of Coke.


----------



## orbital (Oct 9, 2022)

+


bykfixer said:


> Shortage of legal (or illegal) imigrant workers? So the 8 to 20 million illegals already here just went back home? The influx was stemmed some during covid no doubt but there is definitely not a shortage of imigrants still here.
> 
> The gubment printing some $10 trillion in monopoly money may have played a part in the runaway inflation? Hmmmm, nah couldn't be. Nor is that ESG thing deciding who gets to win and who does not, or the absolute monsoon of regulations coming out of Washington DC and state houses? Nah, not that, those are the good guys doing it "for the children".
> 
> ...


*+

Well worth a full quote.*


----------



## jtr1962 (Oct 9, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Shortage of legal (or illegal) imigrant workers? So the 8 to 20 million illegals already here just went back home? The influx was stemmed some during covid no doubt but there is definitely not a shortage of imigrants still here.


Here's some numbers on that:









2021 Update: How Many Illegal Aliens Live in the United States? | Federation for American Immigration Reform


As of the end of 2021, FAIR estimates that approximately 15.5 million illegal aliens reside within the United States. This number is substantially higher than FAIR’s previous estimate of 14.5 million in 2020.




www.fairus.org





Yes, shortage. Despite the increase in absolute numbers of illegals here, the working age population of US citizens is decreasing. Those workers need to be replaced. Right now immigration is the only way. If we were smart we would allow more legal immigration so we could vet the immigrants based on the skills needed to fill the jobs. We don't, so instead we have the current situation of illegals crossing the border hoping they'll do better than they're doing in their home country.


bykfixer said:


> The gubment printing some $10 trillion in monopoly money may have played a part in the runaway inflation?


It's a little more nuanced than that:









Does Government Spending Cause Inflation?


Historically, economists have largely agreed that the link between government spending and inflation remains weak.




www.forbes.com








bykfixer said:


> Hmmmm, nah couldn't be. Nor is that ESG thing deciding who gets to win and who does not, or the absolute monsoon of regulations coming out of Washington DC and state houses? Nah, not that, those are the good guys doing it "for the children".


Government has been deciding winners and losers since post WWII. Who helped make an automobile-based transportation system and suburbia a reality? In large part, government. Other countries decided to keep rail and concentrate on their cities.


bykfixer said:


> Meanwhile more and more perfectly healthy people of all age groups collect government assistance because it's cheaper to stay at home than it is to got buy a car, insure it, pay the taxes and fees, fuel it to drive it to a part time job. Plus the requirements to work have become so relaxed there are homes with 3rd and 4th generations of Americans who have never held a job.


It's not as easy as you think to qualify for assistance. My former brother-in-law got cancer about 20 years ago (he's fine, it hasn't come back). He couldn't work. My sister tried and failed to get any kind of help, despite the fact she made an average salary and had one child. This is in NY, a blue state with relatively generous benefits and more lax rules. I can't get any kind of help with my mother, despite the fact I haven't had a day off caring for her since January 26, 2018 (the day she got home from rehab).

Given the cost of car ownership, the equation is heavily tilted against part-time work actually putting you ahead meaningfully. Do the math. Even a cheap car might cost $100 a week to own. So that's $100 in after-tax income you need just to break-even. If your spouse is already working, your additional income is taxed at their incremental rate, which is at least 17.65% (lowest federal bracket plus FICA tax), but could be well over 40% for higher incomes in high tax states. So now you need to earn at least ~$120 a week just to pay for the car, never mind being ahead. Let's say you work 20 hours a week at $10 an hour. $200, you clear $165 after taxes but before car expenses. After car expenses, you have a big $65 for 20 hours of your time, plus travel time. There's no universe where that's worth it, even if you're not getting government benefits. If you can walk or bike to work, yeah, then it's worthwhile if you're broke.

This reminds me of the late 1980s when my boss was trying to get me to come in for 4 hours Saturday (at straight time per the union contract), instead of working 4 hours overtime during the regular work week. I showed him the numbers. $28 less about 1/3 for taxes, and $5 for car fare. That meant I cleared about $14 for about 6 hours of my time, once you counted the extra commute day. He understood. He didn't expect me to work for a net amount not much over $2 an hour. So he was fine with the OT.

The truth some people don't want to hear is that the pandemic gave people free time to really analyze their situations. Many who were mindlessly working these extra jobs did the math, saw that it was a waste of their time, and quit. Maybe they had to cut expenses a little. Many times they didn't. I still remember the time I helped one of my neighbors with her finances (this was in the 1990s). Similar conclusion. She was actually behind working after you counted child care expenses and extra income taxes. It was a no brainer for her to quit work and enjoy more time with her children.


bykfixer said:


> Sure the gubment figures say record low unemployment but they only count the people looking for work. They say jobs are being created because more people are being hired but the truth is a large swath is people taking on a second job, even a third.


Almost certainly true. The real unemployment rate, defined as the number of people working divided by the working age population (termed the labor force participation rate), is at levels which existed during the Great Depression. As for second or third jobs, maybe if workers were paid proportionally to their gains in productivity since WWII those wouldn't be needed.


bykfixer said:


> Sadly the truth many don't want to hear is it's all being done on purpose. Done by the people who many think actually have their best interest. Much of it done by folks invisible to the watching world on a global scale.


Agreed. As I've said already, the wealthy want a desperate underclass who is forced to labor for them. Indentured servitude never disappeared. Now we just call it living paycheck to paycheck. Then you have others doing this for even more sinister motives, on both sides of the political spectrum.


bykfixer said:


> Covid-19 was a test. A test many of us failed.
> View attachment 33131


Orwell only got it partly right. It's not the government which controls our lives, but giant corporations with unelected leaders. You know the old saying never let a good crisis go to waste? That's exactly what happened here when businesses used some of the issues caused by covid as an excuse to raise prices above and beyond their cost increases. If prices had only gone up with cost increases, profits would have remained flat. The fact you see record corporate profits across the board tells me they milked the situation for every dime. Why should a 6 oz bag of potato chips cost $3.99? It probably costs them a dime to make.


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## bykfixer (Oct 9, 2022)

I have to shake my head sometimes. The answers are simple, easy to see but folks want to continually post blame where they've been told to place the blame. Corparate greed, slave wages, the usual nonsense. Those are just symptoms of the disease.
Bottom line, cats are barking and dogs are pirring and nobody seems to see it.

The bag of potato chips is $3.99 because the truck that brought it to the store paid $1000 for the tank of fuel to get it there. That tank of fuel was $400 two years ago. The furnace that cooks the oil to fry those chips uses fuel that has doubled in cost. Why? It aint because Putin invaded Ukraine.

When the potatos that grow to use in those chips double in price because the largest fertilizer producer on planet earth sliced production in half this year.....not because of the pandemic. Can't blame corparate greed for that and be correct.

The globalists are playing Russian roulette with our lives while the world leaders split the profits. The term "quadrillion" was recently used to describe how far in debt the largest banks are now.

Mick raised a lot of good points. Right or not those are valid points worth considering, but too many want to say "nuh uh, they wouldn't do that". Yes they would, and probably are at least to some degree. 

The smoke screen is there for a reason. 
Here's why


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## jtr1962 (Oct 9, 2022)

When things seem to defy explanation, I fall to the age old way to figure it out-follow the money. Who is profiting from this? It sure as heck ain't the working classes or the poor. It's a mix of corporations and political leaders, along with those getting rich off government contracts. Why does the US still spend more on national defense than the next ten wealthiest countries combined? It sure as heck isn't because of need. It's because defense contracting is very lucrative. Those who profit from it are in the pockets of politicians who dole it out.

It goes on. In my neck of the woods, why does it cost $4.45 billion to build 1.8 miles of subway, when even in high labor cost Europe the same thing would probably cost half a billion tops? Again, follow the money. Well-connected construction firms pad contracts. Labor unions pad labor expenses. People skim off the top. The same thing happens with roads in red states, just in case you think this is a blue state only thing.

A better question to ask yourself is why are we still so dependent upon commodities that fluctuate wildly in price when we've had viable alternatives for years, even decades? Yes, you can blame rising fuel costs for some of this. You can pin some of those rising costs on lowered production, others on government policies. But in the end why aren't we using primarily energy sources with stable prices, like nuclear, solar, wind, wave energy, geothermal? Follow the money. You can use smokescreens to raise oil prices far beyond your cost increases without as many people screaming bloody murder. Indeed, why are oil companies posting record profits this year? And why is OPEC poised to cut production just as prices are falling? Answer-_because they can get away with it_. We've become so conditioned to oil price shocks we don't even flinch any more. We just accept them, even if we don't like the resulting higher prices. If we were using any of the other energy sources, there's zero chance of raising the prices dramatically. What excuse would you give? The sun cut its output by 50%? And that's partially why we've failed to get off oil. You can't gouge people with the other energy sources like you can with oil.

EDIT:

Here's another good example of what I'm talking about:



Climate bill positions big oil and gas companies to cash in


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## bykfixer (Oct 9, 2022)

The US is the cop for the free world. It costs a lot of money to protect Europe, Korea, Japan and all of those other places under the protective blanket of Uncle Sam.

And it's the politicians who are in the pocket of the contractors anymore. Not the other way around. It costs millions and millions of dollars in outside money to get re-elected to a job that pays a hundred grand a year. The politicians show up in a Kia and retire with plethora of homes, limos and investments.

JT, you've gotta stop with the greedy oil corp thing. It's stale 1970's rhetoric. All of those alternative energy sources are in their infancy and nowhere near ready to play in the big game. And nuclear? Do you have any inkling of an idea how much that would cost after the decades long deluge of lawsuits finally ran out? Nuclear is great in your yard but don't be bringing it near mine or me and my ghestapo tactic lawyers will sue you back to being a twinkle in your daddy's eye. That's why nuclear is in a coma new investment-wise.

Things are like they are on purpose. And we keep electing the people that allow it. Your congressman sucks but mine is awesome. He bought my town an airport but yours raised my taxes. Congress has an approx 15% popularity with a 90+% re-election rate. Meanwhile big pharma has a pill for that. CNCB just said so, therefore it must be true.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 9, 2022)

Nuclear is in a coma because of irrational fear about it. Unfortunately, Three Mile Island, and later Chernobyl, killed off major investment in it. I'll be the first to admit I'd greatly prefer fusion over fission. It avoids just about all the issues people fear. You could safely put a fusion plant in midtown Manhattan with no worries. The wrinkle of course is that we haven't gotten it to work yet, outside of very controlled environments. It's always 10 or 20 or 30 years away, depending upon who you ask. So I wouldn't yet hedge any bets on commercial fusion becoming a reality.

The big issue with most* renewables is that they don't generate energy 24/7, not that they're in their infancy. You need some form of grid storage in the absence of a baseline power source like nuclear. Fortunately, for grid storage energy density doesn't matter as it does for EVs. Cost per kW-hr is much more important. Iron-air will fit the bill for that, with cost projections expected to come in at ~$20/kW-hr. We just need to start producing at scale, which won't happen for a few years. Once we do, we've overcome the biggest hurdle against renewables. Cost per MW-hr for commercial solar is already less than for any other source. Of course, another issue preventing further adoption are the supply chain issues affecting just about everything else.

* Wave energy and geothermal are 24/7 but we're sadly not putting much effort into either.

Here's the answer to the problem of elected officials-public financing of campaigns, with donations, or using your own money, not being allowed at all. That would put you and me on an equal footing to some career politician deep in the pockets of big corporations. Or better yet, test people in school for intelligence and other leadership traits. Keep the names on a list. When terms expire, pick names at random from that list. If people are unable or unwilling to do the job for whatever reason, go to the next name. You'll get people not explicitly seeking the job to do it. And they won't have to go through all the BS you need to now in order to get elected. That's a real turnoff which probably eliminates most people who might be great at actually doing the job. Instead, you get people who are great at making speeches but often mediocre leaders. Add to that the fact they don't have to worry about re-election under this system. When their term is up, another random person replaces them. I'm thoroughly convinced that elective democracies rarely elect the best candidate. They often elect among the worst by appealing to people's worst instincts.


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## bykfixer (Oct 9, 2022)

Long ago politicians in America got paid $1 a year or some such crazy low figure like that, so turn over was brisk. They couldn't afford to stay very long. Two homes to pay for, one they came from and one they lived in while in DC.
Awe, but little by little those who make the rules slowly made it possible to earn a good living while working in DC. Many do not know this but a number of freshman legislators to this day sleep in their office while in DC.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 9, 2022)

I didn't know that but I remember the founding fathers originally intended for legislators to come from all walks of life, serve their term, then return to civilian life. They were against the idea of career politicians for obvious reasons. I'll bet they're turning over in their graves seeing what's become of their grand experiment.


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## turbodog (Oct 9, 2022)

orbital said:


> +
> 
> *It was over last year.*
> 
> The economic mess from many overreactions has soaked into everything.



Economy can only absorb change at a certain rate. C-19 _accelerated_ that rate well beyond what could be handled and forged new pathways.

To look at this through a historical lens... it's a pandemic, a world and life changing event that plays out over many years.


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## turbodog (Oct 9, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> That's assuming a zero sum game...



And it's also zero sums... where do you think the money w/ come from to buy out the holdings of the wealthy? Santa Claus?



jtr1962 said:


> That means savings accounts paying 5%, ...



Coca Cola stock. Dividends plus reasonable price appreciation plus a customer base you can count on for 100 years.



jtr1962 said:


> Anyone buying commodities should have to demonstrate that they're an end user, not a middleman. While some of inflation is indeed simply supply and demand, a lot of it is manipulation of markets by those with the resources to do so.



Middlemen often provide liquidity... a short term loan. Nothing stopping end users from buying the cotton contracts, copper, bauxite, etc.


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## turbodog (Oct 9, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> ...
> 
> Covid-19 was a test. A test many of us failed.
> View attachment 33131



Agree with this. The US performed terribly.


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## turbodog (Oct 9, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> ...
> 
> Agreed. As I've said already, the wealthy want a desperate underclass who is forced to labor for them. ....



In a word, "no". The wealthy are the ones funding education, healthcare, libraries, scholarships, the arts, etc. How many Carnegie libraries are out there... from the 'robber baron' himself...

I've got hundred of corporate clients and thousands of their employees I deal with. I've known many of these people for a very long time.

Truth is, most people just don't want more/better enough to do what's needed (ask for promotion at work, take on additional roles at work, learn how to lead, learn how to improve soft skills, learn how to stop making stupid mistakes, change jobs, change careers, etc).


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## turbodog (Oct 9, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> I didn't know that but I remember the founding fathers originally intended for legislators to come from all walks of life, serve their term, then return to civilian life. They were against the idea of career politicians for obvious reasons. I'll bet they're turning over in their graves seeing what's become of their grand experiment.



I think that it's going pretty well, with some areas ahead, some behind.

We appear to have much more to fear from our fellow citizens than the gov't. Gov't writes laws protecting cyclists. Your fellow man is the one that thinks it's funny to cut you off.

In part times, there was much more mixing, fewer homogenous groups. Now... that's seen some MAJOR changes.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 10, 2022)

turbodog said:


> In a word, "no". The wealthy are the ones funding education, healthcare, libraries, scholarships, the arts, etc. How many Carnegie libraries are out there... from the 'robber baron' himself...


Oddly enough, those robber barons saw the value of contributions in the public realm. Today's wealthy, mostly not so much. I judge actions more than anything else. Look at the nonstop complaining about things like extended unemployment benefits, enhanced child tax credits, the eviction moratorium, etc. Or even the stimulus credits. To this day some people are blaming those for the worker shortage. I guess in their mind a few thousand at most somehow lets you avoid working for many months. Or more recently, all the ire directed at Biden's partial student loan cancellation. It seems anything we do for working people the rich hate it, but corporate bailouts are just fine.


turbodog said:


> Truth is, most people just don't want more/better enough to do what's needed (ask for promotion at work, take on additional roles at work, learn how to lead, learn how to improve soft skills, learn how to stop making stupid mistakes, change jobs, change careers, etc).


Here's my problem with that sort of thinking. If someone tells me if I do A, B, C, and D they'll definitely do E, F, G, and H in return to help me better my lot, I'm all in. On the other hand, a lot of it is more like if you do these things _maybe_ someone will notice, maybe not, but in any case it's not definite things will get better for you. I've known people who did everything they told you to. Got a good education, stayed late at work, went above and beyond their job description, etc., only to be offered......more work without a raise, or even worse a pink slip if the company felt it could get rid of you (and pawn your duties off on whoever was left).

Given that, I understand "quit quitting", which is basically doing barely enough to keep your job, or lying flat, etc. A lot of people rightly feel if they're going to be poor anyway, they might as well not work and be poor. At least they have more time to do whatever. I've been in all sorts of situations. When I was at jobs making $5 an hour with no chance of advancement, I did barely enough to keep the job. On the last consulting gig before I retired when I was being paid north of $100 an hour, I gave it my all because I knew the longer I could keep the project viable, the longer I would have my consulting job. The job was supposed to last 18 months tops. Me and the guy who got me in stretched it to over 4 years. After that it went to a different group for commercialization. I put in a plug for myself to be part of that as well, but for whatever reason they wanted a different set of people. But by then my mom needed more help, I probably couldn't work at the level I did, so I figured it's a good time to just retire.

Bad bosses who fail to notice those putting forth extra effort are a big part of the problem. I remember one job my sister had. She was doing more than her share. Guess who got the promotion and raise? A girl who did virtually nothing but slept with her boss.

Yeah, to some extent people have to want more also. A lot of people are content with a relatively simple life. For me more money was always about simply retiring earlier, not buying more fancy things. I value free time to pursue whatever interests I have above all else. Others love fancy things and will do whatever it takes to get them.

Another source of the issues you mention is a sense of hopelessness these days among a large fraction of the work force. When goals seem attainable, many/most people will strive for them. Once they start to seem out of reach, people stop trying. When my parents started out, a home in a decent area was maybe 3 times an average salary. Now in many parts of the country it's 15 or 20 times.

Finally, it's worth a mention that for decades the extra productivity of the work force went to the bosses, not the workers. If worker pay had kept pace with productivity increases minimum wage would now be about $25 a hour. The last time things were really great for the working classes was probably the early or mid 1970s.


turbodog said:


> We appear to have much more to fear from our fellow citizens than the gov't. Gov't writes laws protecting cyclists. Your fellow man is the one that thinks it's funny to cut you off.


Laws are only as good as their enforcement. Besides that, I'm sure you know about intrinsic safety. I don't want more laws protecting cyclists which are seldom enforced. I want more inherently safe infrastructure which makes it physically impossible for motorists to harm me. One idea I have is a system of elevated bike highways over major arterials. Besides the safety advantages, you avoid the need to stop at red lights or stop signs.


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## bykfixer (Oct 10, 2022)

turbodog said:


> Agree with this. The US performed terribly.


The US population failed. The lemmings ran right off the cliff right on cue.


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## mickb (Oct 10, 2022)

turbodog said:


> If you're saying that the world's wealthiest are the cause here, you're trying to reduce a very *complex *event into one central boogeyman.
> 
> If you took the world's richest, divided up the loot (somehow magically), spread it out equally over the time it took to acquire it (decades), then everyone would get a few hundred bucks a year, if that much. Do the math.
> 
> There are _several_ _major_ macroeconomic factors at play here. They will take a *while* to unwind, but they will. And it will be mainly capitalistic competition, not gov't action, that drives prices downward, selection upward, and quality upward.


My comment about having the money back was flippant yes. Never said the worlds richest are to blame. Just said they profited hugely and some like the international shipping sector put too many regulations aside under the guise of 'pandemic panic'.

I agree Capitalism is always the preferred choice of freedom, ,but that does not mean unfair practices cannot occur under its guise. There are list of laws after all in any free country to ensure the little guy doesnt get crushed. Anti-monopilsation laws, fair competition, anti-price gouging and IMHO a lot more could have been done to limit price gouging in particular.


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## mickb (Oct 10, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> The US population failed. The lemmings ran right off the cliff right on cue.


Pretty much bykfixer, same as the other 31 x 1st world countries.

I feel bad for the younger generation. Wealthy genx and boomers just made bank over a pandemic reaction largely designed around them, and the millenials who were already stuck in 2 jobs for a decade to buy a house, are getting handed the bill.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 10, 2022)

mickb said:


> I agree Capitalism is always the preferred choice of freedom, ,but that does not mean unfair practices cannot occur under its guise. There are list of laws after all in any free country to ensure the little guy doesnt get crushed. Anti-monopilsation laws, fair competition, anti-price gouging and IMHO a lot more could have been done to limit price gouging in particular.


Here's a good read:









Capitalism Has Led to "Deterioration in Human Welfare," New Research Suggests | Wealth of Geeks


The expansion of capitalism from the 16th century onward has been accompanied by an extreme decline in human welfare.




wealthofgeeks.com





For a long time, I thought capitalism was the best alternative. After reading the article, I'm not so sure any more. The fact you need the laundry list of laws you mention to protect the little guy is among the reasons. We haven't even had anything resembling real capitalism in a long time. We have cronyism, where those who are powerful make the rules to protect their interests and keep new players out of the game.


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## turbodog (Oct 10, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Oddly enough, those robber barons saw the value of contributions in the public realm. Today's wealthy, mostly not so much....


Tons of ultra wealthy are giving SERIOUS money to humanitarian, education, etc.

I deal w/ some quite wealthy clients, some in the 9 figure group. They are ALWAYS giving away money to college, hospitals, r/d, scholarships, local charity events, etc... and often go to significant lengths to keep their name private.



jtr1962 said:


> ... Guess who got the promotion and raise? A girl who did virtually nothing but slept with her boss.
> ...



And that's a surprise?


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## turbodog (Oct 10, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> Here's a good read:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I read the article... any 1st year econ student can blow battleship sized holes in it. How it got published... wow.

Capitalism is as a democratic process that has ever existed. Anyone can come up with a new, better, cheaper, shinier, etc widget and sell it to anyone else.


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## bykfixer (Oct 10, 2022)

^^The indoctrination is powerful with these 2.....


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## mickb (Oct 10, 2022)

Millenials claim to have the most access to information of any generation yet will defend the generation that is forcing them to pay rent until they are 50. I try and point out the teensy weensy problems with that, and then I am told I dont understand the problem. Well okay kids I give up, you know best and that the worlds richest are on your side. Just make sure you rent is in on time to my generation.


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## KITROBASKIN (Oct 11, 2022)

Numerous elements on the surface of candlepowerforums have become so political, so self righteous about beliefs. Will the Debbie Downers and conspiracy mental masturbators inherit CPF? 

Since we are so off-topic already, what happened to Alaric and Virgil over in Transportation?


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## jtr1962 (Oct 11, 2022)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Numerous elements on the surface of candlepowerforums have become so political, so self righteous about beliefs. Will the Debbie Downers and conspiracy mental masturbators inherit CPF?


Sign of the times. About a month ago I was reading an article about future Mars missions. Then when I started reading the comments half of them were Trump this or Biden that. Seriously, for some topics, like this one, politics might be tangential and expected, but having to read that garbage even for a topic like space exploration is pretty depressing.


KITROBASKIN said:


> Since we are so off-topic already, what happened to Alaric and Virgil over in Transportation?


Maybe they quiet quit?  Sorry, had to get that in.


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## PhotonWrangler (Oct 11, 2022)

Speaking of the supply chain, I was at the grocery store tonight and was surprised to see that the shelves for baby formula were almost completely bare. Again. I though we were over that shortage.


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## mickb (Oct 12, 2022)

Just Blame Putin, seems to be the catchcry for every problem. Here in Australia some one was telling me the price of house insurance rising is also due to Putin. And transport costs which were rising faster the year before he invaded are due to the grain shortage in the ukraine. I guess its because of australias grain fed horse drawn cart infrastructure. 😂


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## bykfixer (Oct 12, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Speaking of the supply chain, I was at the grocery store tonight and was surprised to see that the shelves for baby formula were almost completely bare. Again. I though we were over that shortage.


Biden's working on it. He's got this. Any minute now you'll see. He's working on fixing it. Just gotta be patient. 

Have ya seen the price of toilet paper lately? Plenty of that on the shelves, partly because people find using $1 bills less expensive.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Oct 12, 2022)

One wonders if manufactures took notice of their products that were hoarded during the pandemic and decided they could price them sky's the limit. 🤨


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## knucklegary (Oct 12, 2022)

Cost of living increase 6% (COLA) ~ Grocery's increase 14% 

No worries, there's a fella working (jogging) fast to fix this discrepancy


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## jtr1962 (Oct 12, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> One wonders if manufactures took notice of their products that were hoarded during the pandemic and decided they could price them sky's the limit. 🤨


I think that's a big driver of the problem. I'm seeing far too many things in the grocery store whose price has doubled, even though inflation is supposedly only around 8%. That's price gouging by any other name.


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## bykfixer (Oct 12, 2022)

Fuel to produce the stuff and transport it doubled. Of course the prices jumped tremendously. 

Now the thing I noticed was Fritos went from 11oz to 9.5 but the price was the same....but that has gone way up too. $5.49 for a 9.5 oz bag of Fritos? Nope, I get the store brand kind that is 12oz for a buc 99.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 12, 2022)

I just wait until they have a 2 for 1 sale. Not very often, but I can do without Fritos until they do. Or at least my waistline can.

I tend to buy store brands when they have them. Lately I noticed a lot them just disappeared.


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## bykfixer (Oct 12, 2022)

Talk to a manager and find out what day the truck arrives. A few hours later the shelves should be stocked.

My local store had Doritos 2/$4. Yup a $5.59 bag of Doritos was $2. No limit either. I bought extras.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 12, 2022)

Best sales by me are 2/$5. But yeah, my MO these days is to stock up on anything I know I use when they have it on sale. And I often check Amazon just in case they have the same items for less than my local grocery (the non-perishable stuff anyway).

The trucks by me usually arrive on Thursday. The new sales start on Friday.

My local grocery store isn't that great for selection. There's a few better ones within walking distance.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Oct 12, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> I think that's a big driver of the problem. I'm seeing far too many things in the grocery store whose price has doubled, even though inflation is supposedly only around 8%. That's price gouging by any other name.


 
I've noticed the same at the local Ace hardware store. I've also seen old, dusty stock with its price covered over and marked up. NOT COOL!


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## Poppy (Oct 13, 2022)

I can still get boneless chicken breasts, or thighs for $2.99 a pound. Eggs however are $3.49 to $5.49 a dozen!

Yesterday I spoke with a friend who was livid that he had gone to two different BJ's wholesale houses and neither had any canned cat food.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Oct 13, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I can still get boneless chicken breasts, or thighs for $2.99 a pound. Eggs however are $3.49 to $5.49 a dozen!
> 
> Yesterday I spoke with a friend who was livid that he had gone to two different BJ's wholesale houses and neither had any canned cat food.


 
Yep! We've been having the same experience with canned cat food. We prefer to purchase it by the case, which has been hit or miss for months. We've also been experiencing, what I'm guessing is, some quality control issues. Our cats have never been finicky when it came to wet food. Recently, just the opposite. I stopped buying it about a month ago.


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## turbodog (Oct 13, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Speaking of the supply chain, I was at the grocery store tonight and was surprised to see that the shelves for baby formula were almost completely bare. Again. I though we were over that shortage.



You probably missed it when I posted the first time... but after row/wade got overturned, be prepared for some critical formula shortages as births increase. As we have seen from c-19, it does not take much supply/demand imbalance to wreak havoc.


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## turbodog (Oct 13, 2022)

jtr1962 said:


> I think that's a big driver of the problem. I'm seeing far too many things in the grocery store whose price has doubled, even though inflation is supposedly only around 8%. That's price gouging by any other name.



Or could it be that a LOT of food is produced/harvested/etc by immigrant workers, of which we are short ~2M. And the rest is simple supply/demand pricing adjustments due to this?

Or (space) aliens, could be aliens...


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## turbodog (Oct 13, 2022)

Chauncey Gardiner said:


> I've noticed the same at the local Ace hardware store. I've also seen old, dusty stock with its price covered over and marked up. NOT COOL!



And you are surprised? I bet the employees that work there want a COLA increase. Where do you think that money comes from?

Well, damn, am I the only one here that owns/runs a business?


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## scout24 (Oct 13, 2022)




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## bykfixer (Oct 13, 2022)

Truth!!


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## KITROBASKIN (Oct 13, 2022)

Certainly an appropriate time to be reminded that humans have previously faced this kind of hardship, and worse. Much worse. I need to remember that complaining helps some people. The best part of this thread is reading reports of member's encounters with supply issues.


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## jtr1962 (Oct 13, 2022)

KITROBASKIN said:


> Certainly an appropriate time to be reminded that humans have previously faced this kind of hardship, and worse. Much worse. I need to remember that complaining helps some people. The best part of this thread is reading reports of member's encounters with supply issues.


Well, I remember stories from my grandparents about the Great Depression and WWII. That makes what we're going through now seem like a picnic. The important thing to remember here is those on the margins are typically affected a lot more by inflation. So far for us the higher prices are more a source of complaint but we haven't had to cut down on essentials (yet). If this continues a few more years that might not be the case. Our household income is only about 20% above the official poverty line. What's saving us is the house has been paid for since 2003. A lot of others are spending half their net pay just for the roof over their heads.


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## bykfixer (Oct 13, 2022)

During the depression there were no food stamps or unemployment benefits. Approx 30% of the population was unemployed with no back up plan or gubment assistance. And talk about supply chain issues...

My mom told a story of how a train loaded with cows derailed near her home and many people in a 20 mile radius ate meat for the first time in months.

My dad was a big fan of turnips. I asked why one day and he said "back in the depression they weren't potatos for supper again."


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## mickb (Oct 14, 2022)

The great depression is always a favorite in these dicussions and usually Americans and Australians quoting it because its the only calamity in our living memory, and it all worked out. Unlike a lot of Europe we didnt even get invaded in WW2. About 130 countries in the world have ongoing situations making the depression look like a picnic. Many of these are being hit harder by the supply chain issues too. You dont need to fluctuate rice or grain supply much to kill a lot of poor folk.


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## turbodog (Oct 30, 2022)

Plenty of poor folk dying each day due to contaminated drinking water, lack of food, various diseases, etc. This applies worldwide but gradually improves over time.


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## LED1982 (Oct 30, 2022)

mickb said:


> Just Blame Putin, seems to be the catchcry for every problem. Here in Australia some one was telling me the price of house insurance rising is also due to Putin. And transport costs which were rising faster the year before he invaded are due to the grain shortage in the ukraine. I guess its because of australias grain fed horse drawn cart infrastructure. 😂


I finally got up the courage to ask this girl out at the gym, I even impressed myself with how much confidence I spoke with. But ugh she said no. God damn Putin!!


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 19, 2022)

I stopped by the grocery store today and saw some spotty almost-empty shelves. This is partly because everyone is buying stuff for thanksgiving (this Thursday in the U.S.) and partly because the labor shortage is making it difficult to keep the shelves restocked.even if they have plenty of supplies in the back. The weekend before Thanksgiving is essentially the super bowl for the grocery supply chain workers.


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## bykfixer (Nov 20, 2022)

My local grocery store doesn't even have a place for baby formula anymore. Plenty of Pampers and jars of Gerber stuff but no formula at all. It's like the flashlight section at my local Lowes....gone. 

Every year the Mrs buys a 25 pound turkey and half goes into the trash a week later. That's after feeding everybody on the holiday and us eating turkey twice a day for the next week. This year I found a 10 pound turkey at WalMart for $10.


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## Poppy (Nov 20, 2022)

I don't really like turkey, so this year I planned on cooking a chicken instead. We have the same issue where after a week in the fridge, we throw out the carcass.

Fortunately, unfortunately, my daughter got a turkey for free. So... we'll be eating turkey this year.


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## bykfixer (Nov 20, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I don't really like turkey, so this year I planned on cooking a chicken instead. We have the same issue where after a week in the fridge, we throw out the carcass.
> 
> Fortunately, unfortunately, my daughter got a turkey for free. So... we'll be eating turkey this year.


Mrs Fixer prefers turkey at thanksgiving, which pretty much means we eat turkey at thanksgiving. Actually I'd prefer to fry up a few whole chickens but.... since I bought a nice roasting pan last year I suppose it may as well get used.

I did notice a big increase in the price of whole turkeys. Last year the big frozen ones were around 25 cents a pound. This year they were nearly 40 cents a pound. So a 25#'r was still only $10 but time you add a buck for green beans, two bucks for ham (or more), extra cost for potato's and beverages etc it ends up being quite a bit more expensive this year. 

Years ago we had about 20 people at the gathering but age and divorce led to people dying or going elsewhere. Therefore the inflation doesn't seem so bad.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 26, 2022)

All of a sudden it's hard to find masks in stores around here again. There used to be boatloads of them everywhere. I only found a small quantity of the paper surgical masks at a Target but no KN95s.

I'm wondering if this is a result of Black Friday. I noticed that the standalone kiosks in Target that were usually stocked with masks and sanitizers were instead stocked with scented candles, makeup kits and other gift items. This might be more about shelf space than stock, at least for them. Hopefully things will get back to normal next week.


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## bykfixer (Nov 27, 2022)

So when you no longer see boat loads of masks and hand sanitizers, isn't that sorta back to normal?


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Nov 27, 2022)

Sorta normal, for me, is always being able to purchase a 10-pack of N95 masks with an exhaust valve. They're great for yard work and cleaning.


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## PhotonWrangler (Nov 27, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> So when you no longer see boat loads of masks and hand sanitizers, isn't that sorta back to normal?


Ideally yes, however they all disappeared suddenly, which is odd.


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## bykfixer (Dec 4, 2022)

The Mrs was shopping at a $1.25 store recently, which gave me the chance to look around the place as she compared items she probably had no intention of buying. She'll touch and examine 100 things and leave without buying any of them. 

Anyway it gave me a chance to see they have groceries. Lots of groceries. Some of which my local grocery store doesn't have in stock lately. Knowing prices of said items I probably saved $20 by spending $10. Example my brand of juice is $3.79 on sale but it was a buck 25. Ziplox that are $4.39....a buck and a quarter. $7 roll of foil.... yup a buck and a quarter. I was not the only fellow who needed a shopping cart there.


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## Poppy (Dec 4, 2022)

I'm leery of buying food in dollar stores. In the past I noted that they had low cost food wrap, and aluminum foil, but the length of foil in the box was also relatively short.

The last time I bought aluminum foil, I bought 2- 200 square foot rolls. I think the smaller rolls are 50 square foot rolls. I think that the dollar store rolls are perhaps 20 square foot.

Undoubtedly one can get deals at the dollar store, but caveat beware, you often get what you pay for.


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## turbodog (Dec 4, 2022)

Yup. Mfgs make smaller quantity boxes for the dollar stores. Overall unit cost can be much higher.


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## bykfixer (Dec 4, 2022)

Apples to apples I saved at least $10.


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## turbodog (Dec 5, 2022)

Ocean freight costs continue to drop:



From chicken wings to used cars, inflation begins to ease its grip


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## bykfixer (Dec 6, 2022)

The demand for fuel has eased as the world economy cools down. And according to the alphabet soup parrots called news media the supply chain is now suddenly all fixed again.


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## Chauncey Gardiner (Dec 6, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> The demand for fuel has eased as the world economy cools down. And according to the alphabet soup parrots called news media the supply chain is now suddenly all fixed again.


 
Well, that's "good news"/


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## ledbetter (Dec 6, 2022)

Recent arrest of couple in the South busted for selling stolen baby formula on eBay/Amazon shows huge uptick in shoplifting/organized crime in major retailers (Walmart & Target made announcements) that might affect prices and scarcity of items. This is an interesting new twist on supply chain issues and overall inflation. New laws coming down the pipe requiring resellers to provide tax id # and actual addresses of sales locations.
The normal consumer uninvolved in the black market/underground economy will, as usual, pick up the tab on all this.


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## turbodog (Dec 10, 2022)

ledbetter said:


> ... stolen baby formula ...



I hope formula mfgs come back online in full production before the r/w birth ramifications hit.


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## bykfixer (Dec 10, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Apples to apples I saved at least $10.


This evening we returned to the $1.25 store and bought Fiji water for $1.25 that was $1.33 in the grocery store, $1.25 for Eternal water that was $5 at the grocery store, my favorite brand of juice in flavors the grocery store doesn't carry like apple cranberry instead of cran-apple for $1.25 instead of $4+, mini tree ornaments we saw at Wally world for $3+ for $1.25.

Much of the suff in the place is 'get it while they have it' so it's not a constant source of stuff like Fiji water but I stocked up.


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## bykfixer (Dec 23, 2022)

Eggs went from $1.89 to $3.89 at my local grocery store in one week. This week $4.19 a dozen. And I don't mean the brown shell, spend the days at a ski resort eating gluton free organic food, packed in drop friendly carton eggs kind either. No, the cheap ones that were $0.89 a dozen in 2020.

It's only 35 cents per egg but still that's up to near cigarette prices. But so far no shrink-flation where you get 10 for your 35 cents per egg thing.

Did chickens unionize and demand pay raises? A 3# roaster was $12!! That's not even cut up. And no neckbone/gibletts/gizzards stuffed inside? No those are now sold separately. We did find a 4 pack of drumsticks for $2. Must be non union third world country chicken legs.... so a little lead to go with dinner perhaps? Sigh.

The good news, a 5 pack of Reeses peanut butter cups was $1.29. Now that's reduced in size, single cup, used to be 6 pack for $2.89 and now $3.89 for the 5 pack so I stocked up on those babies. And a pound of fake crab meat was $1.89 from $2.29. Love some fake crab meat.


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## Poppy (Dec 23, 2022)

bykfixer said:


> Eggs went from $1.89 to $3.89 at my local grocery store in one week. This week $4.19 a dozen. And I don't mean the brown shell, spend the days at a ski resort eating gluton free organic food, packed in drop friendly carton eggs kind either. No, the cheap ones that were $0.89 a dozen in 2020.
> 
> It's only 35 cents per egg but still that's up to near cigarette prices. But so far no shrink-flation where you get 10 for your 35 cents per egg thing.
> 
> ...


Good reporting Mr Fixer!

Shoprite, a large food chain in this area is holding the line on the cost of skinless boneless chicken breasts at $1.99 a pound. I was in there a few days ago, and they were bought out, but there was a good supply of boneless thighs at the same price.

I plan to go back today, and expect that they will have restocked. At least I hope so.
They had no Lactaid 1/2 and 1/2 the last couple of times I looked.

Eggs here are also expensive, but plentiful.
Plenty of frozen Pizza


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 23, 2022)

Poppy said:


> Good reporting Mr Fixer!
> 
> Shoprite, a large food chain in this area is holding the line on the cost of skinless boneless chicken breasts at $1.99 a pound. I was in there a few days ago, and they were bought out, but there was a good supply of boneless thighs at the same price.
> 
> ...


Wait, Lactaid makes half & half? Where has this been all my life? If it wasn't so miserable outside I'd run out and get some.


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## Poppy (Dec 23, 2022)

PhotonWrangler said:


> Wait, Lactaid makes half & half? Where has this been all my life? If it wasn't so miserable outside I'd run out and get some.


I'm pretty sure that the Lactaid brand is available, but maybe not.


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## ledbetter (Dec 23, 2022)

Why egg prices are surging — but chicken prices are falling: It's an 'act of God' event, says trade strategist


The price of eggs and chickens moved in opposite directions in October. Bird flu is a big reason why.




www.cnbc.com




The chicken or the egg?


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## PhotonWrangler (Dec 23, 2022)

Poppy said:


> I'm pretty sure that the Lactaid brand is available, but maybe not.
> 
> View attachment 36550


Thanks Poppy! I'm going to look for this.

**Edit** Found it at one of the higher end grocery chains in my area. It's pricey at $6 per quart but I'm giving it a try.


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## Poppy (Sunday at 12:22 PM)

ShopRite is a retailers' cooperative of supermarkets with stores in six states: *Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania*.

Periodically they run their Can_Can sale. It is currently underway, they run different items each week for a few weeks.
Currently with a digital coupon (you can get on their app)
Progresso soups- 10/$12
Bumble Bee Tuna 10/$8.99
Canned tomatoes 12/$10
Folgers Coffee $1.99 limit four
Top Round Roast or London broil $2.99/lb twin pack - limit one package
Prego Pasta or Pizza sauce 2/$2 

I didn't notice much in the way of holes in the shelves when I went there yesterday.
There were plenty of eggs, but at $5 a dozen, people may have cut back on purchasing them.
To my great disappointment, it looks like they aren't carrying Egg Nog anymore.

I got the next to last 1/2 gallon of store brand "lactose free" whole milk.
There were a few Lactaid 1/2's available.
There was a large selection of milk substitutes, like almond milk etc.

I don't know if it is just a Jersey thing, but here they banned single use shopping bags. The stores typically have cloth bags that are reusable for sale for 50 cents to a dollar. Insulated bags cost more. I forgot to stash some bags in my car, so I looked to buy a few. At none of the twenty check out counters, were any bags.

While I was checking out I asked the girl if she had any bags for sale. She closed her register, and went and got a handful, probably 50 of them. She placed them under her counter, not hanging where they can be seen for purchase. I don't know if they are running short on them, but maybe?


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## bykfixer (Yesterday at 8:36 PM)

Went back to the $1.25 store.

- Mrs Fixer bought 2 rolls of cricut pleather ($8 at other stores) for $1.25.($2.50 total).
- Scented tea light candles (5.99 at another store) for $1.25.
- Her brand of tea ((3.99 at another store) for $1.25.
- Two boxes of gallon size ziplocks box of 16 for $1.25 that are 30 for $5.99 at another store (32 for $2.50)
- my brand of low calorie juice $1.25 ($3.59 on sale at another store)
- 2 sunglasses cases (normaly $4.99 at another store)
- paper towels (normally $2+ per roll)
So we spent some money but saved a lot down the road.

About the only thing I see missing from shelves right now are things the local grocery store doesn't stock many of anyway. My favorite 2.5 gallon jug of spring water for example. The shelf only holds around 10 and they seem to resupply about once a month so..... and stuff on sale often has been sold out by the time I get there. Sales start Wednesday and I go on the weekend so it's no surprise when they are sold out of an ordinarily $8 item at bogo prices.


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