# Panasonic phasing out of Cylindrical Battery Business



## IlluminationDomination (Apr 7, 2018)

That is what the OWNER of one of my favorite battery dealers told me yesterday.

He said they[Panasonic/Sanyo] Officially are already out but continue to make much smaller quantities of cells for their battery pack customers. 

Anyone else heard about this. It was surprising to me. I could not find any other info. on it.


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## sp4zz (Apr 7, 2018)

There was a tiny bit of some similar rumors floating around one of the smaller high end vaping forums (I can't remember which one right now) about Panasonic leaving the battery business a while ago, but I took it with a grain a salt back then, but who knows, maybe it wasn't just talk. Panasonic batts don't get used nearly as much as some of the other brands out there in vaping mods, so like I say, I didn't think much of it then. I keep a pretty big web history, so I may try and find the thread again and see if there was any worthwhile information posted or any updates, and if so, will report back.


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## SubLGT (Apr 7, 2018)

Panasonic is currently manufacturing millions of 21700 cylindrical cells for Tesla. So I doubt they are exiting the business.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 7, 2018)

I guess we will see.I am just relaying info. I will ask Jon about Tesla,,,,,,,,,,,,,possibly he was specifically talking about 18650,,,,,,,,,,,,but he did not mention that in his long and detailed email.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 7, 2018)

Another thought,,Maybe they[TESLA] are the battery pack customers he was talking about? I just emailed him,,,,,,will find out his answer to your Tesla info. on Monday.


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## SubLGT (Apr 7, 2018)

The cell suppliers, like Panasonic, Samsung, LG, etc definitely do not want their cylindrical cells to be used individually in a device like a flashlight or e-cig. So maybe Panasonic will do all they can to restrict use of the cells to battery packs. Sony has already exited the cylindrical LI-ion cell business.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 7, 2018)

SubLGT said:


> The cell suppliers, like Panasonic, Samsung, LG, etc definitely do not want their cylindrical cells to be used individually in a device like a flashlight or e-cig. So maybe Panasonic will do all they can to restrict use of the cells to battery packs.



That may be true. He also mentioned how hard[ basically have to beg] it is to get these batteries from the battery pack customers.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 7, 2018)

He just replied back and basically said that to his understanding the 21700 can not really be used outside of EV's since they do not have the normal safety mechanisms incorporated.

Also said that, yes they are focusing ALL their production on these special partnership cells for automotive applications. None of those will likely ever get on the market loose.


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## MrAl (Apr 7, 2018)

Hi,

Who will be left then to make these cells?


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## SubLGT (Apr 7, 2018)

Chinese manufacturers will be happy to produce them.


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## StandardBattery (Apr 7, 2018)

Holy &^&^%$ if this is true.


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## SubLGT (Apr 7, 2018)

Before Sony sold their battery business to Murata, they sent out a warning letter advising against use of their Li-ion batteries outside of a battery pack.
More details here:
https://www.e-cigarette-forum.com/threads/does-someone-understand-that.748849/


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## SubLGT (Apr 7, 2018)

StandardBattery said:


> Holy &^&^%$ if this is true.


 China, and Chinese companies, are being very aggressive about becoming the world's leader in battery manufacturing and research.

Just one example:
http://www.scmp.com/tech/science-re...attery-maker-will-soon-surpass-tesla-capacity



> ...Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd, or CATL, already sells the most batteries to the biggest electric-vehicle makers in the biggest EV market: China. Now it wants to use proceeds from a pending initial public offering backed by Goldman Sachs to get under the hoods of more European marques and secure customers in the US....
> 
> ...“Their intentions are very clear,” said Simon Moores, London-based managing director of battery sector consultant Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “To not just be China’s biggest battery producer but the world’s largest.”...
> 
> ...Menahem Anderman, president of Total Battery Consulting in Petaluma, California, went to see CATL’s headquarters for himself in January and found a company in the process of becoming a world-class battery maker. “Technically they are a probably a tad behind the big three,” he said, citing Panasonic, Samsung SDI and LG Chem. “But considering how fast they have been moving, it’s reasonable to assume that in two to three years they’ll have a technically similar product.”...


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## RedLED (Apr 7, 2018)

Ah, no!


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## RedLED (Apr 7, 2018)

SubLGT said:


> China, and Chinese companies, are being very aggressive about becoming the world's leader in battery manufacturing and research.
> 
> Just one example:
> http://www.scmp.com/tech/science-re...attery-maker-will-soon-surpass-tesla-capacity[/QUOTE
> We are 40 years head of China in batteries, don't worry about it.


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## MarioJP (Apr 8, 2018)

I really hope this is a rumor. No way this can't be true. That's like saying alkalines or AA is going to be phased out.


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## WalkIntoTheLight (Apr 8, 2018)

I recently ordered a bunch of 18650 cells which I put in long-term storage in the refrigerator. I only see the problem of obtaining/shipping lithium-ion cells getting worse in the future.


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## MarioJP (Apr 8, 2018)

I don't think that is going to happen. If anything. Lithium ion in the future may at last be safe once the new and improved cells comes to market. 

I have yet to see a confimation of Panasonic phasing out. If anything, Elon Musk is demanding more lithium ion for his Tesla cars.

Quite frankly, i can't just see this happening. What the market really wants is to make lithium ions to be as safe as NiMh. More the reason to keep researching on battery tech.


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## SubLGT (Apr 8, 2018)

RedLED said:


> ...We are 40 years head of China in batteries, don't worry about it.



In manufacturing, China is way ahead of the USA.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-about-to-bury-elon-musk-in-batteries



> While Tesla may be building the biggest and splashiest factory, the Chinese government has launched a sweeping effort to increase the country’s dominant market share.
> 
> Roughly 55 percent of global lithium-ion battery production is already based in China, compared with 10 percent in the U.S. By 2021, China’s share is forecast to grow to 65 percent, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
> 
> ...


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## WalkIntoTheLight (Apr 8, 2018)

MarioJP said:


> I don't think that is going to happen. If anything. Lithium ion in the future may at last be safe once the new and improved cells comes to market.



Maybe. But will future cells still have the same characteristics, size, and voltage of current 18650 cells we need for our flashlights? Or will they be dumbed-down for consumer use?


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## MarioJP (Apr 9, 2018)

WalkIntoTheLight said:


> Maybe. But will future cells still have the same characteristics, size, and voltage of current 18650 cells we need for our flashlights? Or will they be dumbed-down for consumer use?


Cylindrical cells still and will have their place as that is a universal size. Panasonic sells 21700's by themselves. Would be awesome to upgrade to that size. Also, in a way; this is like a step back to dumb-down. For every device with a battery in it that you no longer want then what? 

This is the reason why when i was looking at power banks. Went with a removable 18650 power bank instead of the "consumer version"


I have yet to hear anything being official from Panasonic. Would be a bold move if they do. China will have no problems filling in this gap lol.


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## flphotog (Apr 9, 2018)

Just googled this and the only thing I could find about Panasonic getting out of the business were rumors posted on candle power forums.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 9, 2018)

flphotog said:


> Just googled this and the only thing I could find about Panasonic getting out of the business were rumors posted on candle power forums.



I could not find much on the subject either. At the same time I am NOT doubting what the owner of a Lithium Ion battery co. is saying.

TIME WILL TELL. WE WILL SEE.

Please note: Jon did NOT say Lithium Ion batteries are phasing out.

He said they[Panasonic/Sanyo] Officially are already out but continue to make much smaller quantities of cells for their largest battery pack customers. 

In addition he said that it is very difficult to get batteries from these battery pack recipients,,,,,basically has to beg them!


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## sbslider (Apr 9, 2018)

WalkIntoTheLight said:


> I recently ordered a bunch of 18650 cells which I put in long-term storage in the refrigerator.


What is your recommendation for long term storage of a li-ion rechargeable?


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## WalkIntoTheLight (Apr 10, 2018)

sbslider said:


> What is your recommendation for long term storage of a li-ion rechargeable?



I bought some common name-brand batteries: Samsung 30Q's, Sanyo GA's, and Sony VTC6's. Ran them through a couple of cycles and made sure they were good and held a full charge for a few days. Then I discharged to 3.75v, sealed them in ziplock bags, and put them in the refrigerator. I'll check on them in a couple of years, and charge them back up to 3.75v if necessary.

From what I've read, this should result in them losing maybe 2% capacity each year. This is far better than the 20% they might lose each year if kept fully charged at room temperature.

I'm hoping they last 10 years in storage, though I'll be okay if they last 5 years and still have good capacity and high discharge ability.

I think lithium-ion cells can last longer than most people think. I have some salvaged Samsung 18650's from a laptop that is around 10 years old. They aren't high drain, but they never were in the first place. They still have about 60% or 70% of their rated capacity, which isn't bad for cells which weren't properly stored.

If you live in the US, you have easier access to quality cells, and probably will for quite some time. Here in Canada, about the last place that will still ship 18650's to me is the U.S., and I have no idea how much longer that will last. Locally, our selection of 18650's suck.


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## sbslider (Apr 10, 2018)

WalkIntoTheLight said:


> I bought some common name-brand batteries: Samsung 30Q's, Sanyo GA's, and Sony VTC6's. Ran them through a couple of cycles and made sure they were good and held a full charge for a few days. Then I discharged to 3.75v, sealed them in ziplock bags, and put them in the refrigerator. I'll check on them in a couple of years, and charge them back up to 3.75v if necessary.
> 
> From what I've read, this should result in them losing maybe 2% capacity each year. This is far better than the 20% they might lose each year if kept fully charged at room temperature.


Thanks for the quick response, I appreciate it! I recently bought some 16340 cells I don't really need for my S1R, and figured that storing them "properly" would be a better option then just leaving them laying around.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 10, 2018)

I am not sure who is right. I have heard people say putting L.Ion in the refrigerator can lengthen their life and I have heard others say refrigeration has No benefit.

I think the biggest key is discharging them to ~ 3.60v and storing them in a cool place. Maybe 60F


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## sbslider (Apr 10, 2018)

I suspect the biggest "benefit" of refrigeration is constant temperature. I would be hard pressed to find a place to keep a battery, or anything else, at 60F where I live. For lithium primaries lower temps are definitely better and prevent self discharge and increase of internal resistance.


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## MarioJP (Apr 10, 2018)

I'll still think that there won't be any issues of buying cells in the future and only going to get better as technology progresses.
But anyways.

I know keeping cells in the refrigerator slows down self-discharge, but wouldn't condensation be bad for them?


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 10, 2018)

sbslider said:


> I suspect the biggest "benefit" of refrigeration is constant temperature. I would be hard pressed to find a place to keep a battery, or anything else, at 60F where I live. For lithium primaries lower temps are definitely better and prevent self discharge and increase of internal resistance.



My basement which has a Dehumidifier. More like 64F but basically constant.

Mario brought up a good point about condensation. I believe that was the argument Against refrigeration.


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## SubLGT (Apr 10, 2018)

More rumors (from DEC 2017):



> ...According to etnews (no affiliation), Panasonic has sold most of its battery capacity to Tesla, leaving other companies banging on Samsung SDI, LG Chemicals, and Murata’s respective doors...
> 
> ...“It is impossible to purchase cylindrical batteries within Japan and we were even notified by Panasonic that they are not going to sell cylindrical batteries anymore,” said a representative for a Japanese battery distributor. “It has come to a point where we cannot even purchase products from Samsung and LG and even products from Samsung and LG that were produced in China.”...



https://www.extremetech.com/extreme...ctory-problems-drive-massive-battery-shortage


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 10, 2018)

^^^

My guess based on Jon's[L.Ionwholesale] information and post like the one above that I have read, is that they are NOT rumors.


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## SubLGT (Apr 10, 2018)

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/engl...ung-sdi-expand-secondary-battery-lines-cement



> ...[March 1, 2018] Samsung SDI will invest several hundreds of billions of Korean won to build a production line for small-sized secondary batteries. It is analyzed that the decision was made while taking into consideration the fact that Japan's Panasonic, the world's largest battery maker, is extremely busy supplying batteries to Tesla for its electric vehicles so cannot meet other demand. The move has been seen as a gambit of Samsung SDI, which has the largest market share in the small-sized battery market, to further shore up its leadership in the market. In the global small-sized battery market, Samsung SDI outclasses Panasonic in the market share...
> 
> ...In particular, the small-sized cylindrical battery market is enjoying rapid growth. Cylindrical battery shipments, which stood at 1.9 billion units in 2014, were estimated at 3.3 billion units last year, recording a sharp rise. ...


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## SubLGT (Apr 10, 2018)

Looks to me like Panasonic will continue with cylindrical battery production, and will not be exiting that business. They do seem to lack adequate manufacturing capacity to meet global demand. Samsung (and LG) appear to be opening new manufacturing lines in Korea to take advantage of Panasonic's issues, and gain market share.


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## MarioJP (Apr 10, 2018)

That article i did read awhile back. This is a gamble though. So basically this is the same thing that is currently going with graphics cards. Shortage of them due to bitcoin. This just means people like us that buys cells are going to be in 2nd class.

It all comes down to supply and demand and not phasing out. I was scared there for a second lol.

This does however gives China an opportunity to take advantage of the situation at the moment. The worse that can happen is re-branded ultrafire cells XD lol.

But in the end. Tesla is a gamble. Hopefully Panasonic and other good brand manufactures has a plan-B just in case.


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## ssanasisredna (Apr 10, 2018)

RedLED said:


> SubLGT said:
> 
> 
> > China, and Chinese companies, are being very aggressive about becoming the world's leader in battery manufacturing and research.
> ...


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## ssanasisredna (Apr 10, 2018)

MarioJP said:


> I'll still think that there won't be any issues of buying cells in the future and only going to get better as technology progresses.
> But anyways.
> 
> I know keeping cells in the refrigerator slows down self-discharge, but wouldn't condensation be bad for them?



Condensation from what? Condensation happens when warm hits cold, so only happens if you have them open and in the fridge already.

Yes putting them in the fridge makes them last longer, much longer. Arguably you can put them into the freezer portion too. The chemical process will be slowed even more. Just give them time to warm before using.


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## iamlucky13 (Apr 10, 2018)

ssanasisredna said:


> Condensation from what? Condensation happens when warm hits cold, so only happens if you have them open and in the fridge already.
> 
> Yes putting them in the fridge makes them last longer, much longer. Arguably you can put them into the freezer portion too. The chemical process will be slowed even more. Just give them time to warm before using.



Depending on the ambient humidity, you can get condensation from the air let in when you open the fridge door.

I doubt it would be an issue though. Battery manufacturers seem not to recommend cold storage (Energizer FAQ), but their concern sounds speculative. Also, with alkaline batteries such as referenced in the link, a user pulling a cold battery out of the freezer and putting it in a high drain device would get terrible performance if it doesn't have time to warm up, and probably think the brand new battery is almost dead - Energizer obviously doesn't want that.

I could hypothetically see leakage current through the condensation slowly draining them, but I've kept alkalines in the fridge for years without apparent issue. When I saw warnings against storing batteries in the fridge, I checked the oldest set in my fridge. I think it was nearly a decade old (spare alkalines go unused for a long time when all you use them for is remotes and other low drain devices), but still read close to 1.6V.


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## WalkIntoTheLight (Apr 10, 2018)

ssanasisredna said:


> Condensation from what? Condensation happens when warm hits cold, so only happens if you have them open and in the fridge already.
> 
> Yes putting them in the fridge makes them last longer, much longer. Arguably you can put them into the freezer portion too. The chemical process will be slowed even more. Just give them time to warm before using.



I put them in freezer bags, along with a bit of silica gel, to prevent condensation if there is any. Even if there isn't any condensation in the refrigerator, it helps when I take them out in a couple of years to test them.

I'm not sure if refrigeration will help or not, but I think the lower temperature should slow down chemical reactions which might age the cells.


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## Kurt_Woloch (Apr 10, 2018)

One question that, surprisingly hasn't come up yet... does this phasing out also affect the Eneloop line of batteries? AA's and AAA's are also cylindrical, aren't they?


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 10, 2018)

Kurt_Woloch said:


> One question that, surprisingly hasn't come up yet... does this phasing out also affect the Eneloop line of batteries? AA's and AAA's are also cylindrical, aren't they?



Good question. I do not know. Liionwholesale ONLY sells Li. Ion batteries and that was the only chemistry he was referring to.


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## iamlucky13 (Apr 10, 2018)

Kurt_Woloch said:


> One question that, surprisingly hasn't come up yet... does this phasing out also affect the Eneloop line of batteries? AA's and AAA's are also cylindrical, aren't they?



There's no confirmed phase out of any Panasonic/Sanyo batteries.

We're hearing this from a discount wholesaler. They probably are getting information from a commercial distributor. We don't know what Panasonic has actually told the distributor, but there is a limited amount of information on future plans they can tell distributors without first notifying shareholders, which would then make it public info. So we're hearing this 4th hand.

In fact, Panasonic's latest annual report says they plan to continue increasing battery production to remain the top global producer.

Given the scale of their business relationship with an industrial customer who plans to within the next year or two be using over 1 billion cells a year, I don't believe for one second that Panasonic is simply getting out of the cylindrical battery business. However, there's several things going on that could create such an impression:

1.) Rapidly growing battery demand means it is a lucrative market. That may mean some other company could seek to buy Panasonic's battery business from them. If the price their offering is high enough, Panasonic might be willing to sell for the cash to invest in other product sectors, rather than the one everybody already recognizes is growing. Technically this would mean Panasonic gets out of the business, but it also means their products remain in production, possibly under a new name. This wouldn't affect current supply.

2.) Heavy demand in the EV industry especially means some battery types are not easily available other than in industrial quantities.

3.) Small cylindrical cells are expected to be replaced in many applications in the long term by large prismatic cells. This is not happening yet, but some folks in the distribution chain may be prematurely assuming it's imminent.

4.) Manufacturers are trying to discourage the sale of unprotected cells to consumers, because there is some liability in doing so, and they don't want to get sued for somebody abusing a cell and burning their house down or having a flashlight blow up while holding it in their teeth and dying (which happened with an off brand battery recently - EDIT - I may be incorrectly understanding this incident. See further posts).

#2 and #4 both fit what IlluminationDomination has reported, but neither indicates Panasonic is actually phasing out of either cylindrical lithium-ion batteries, or NiMH.


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## Gauss163 (Apr 10, 2018)

iamlucky13 said:


> 4.) Manufacturers are trying to discourage the sale of unprotected cells to consumers, because there is some liability in doing so, and they don't want to get sued for somebody abusing a cell and burning their house down or having a flashlight blow up while holding it in their teeth and dying (which happened with an off brand battery recently).



Where did you find info on the type of battery in Caleb Joyner's flashlight? I didn't see any such info in a quick web search.


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## WalkIntoTheLight (Apr 10, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> Where did you find info on the type of battery in Caleb Joyner's flashlight? I didn't see any such info in a quick web search.



From the article, it doesn't sound like the flashlight's battery was to blame. It sounds like he shorted out the car's battery. That might have caused the flashlight to explode, though.


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## iamlucky13 (Apr 10, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> Where did you find info on the type of battery in Caleb Joyner's flashlight? I didn't see any such info in a quick web search.



Did I misunderstand the news reports? Was it not due to a venting battery bursting the flashlight body?

Regardless, the basic point about discouraging consumer sales remains. I think it was one of your posts that introduced me to Sony's warning to resellers that represented the same concern.


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## Gauss163 (Apr 10, 2018)

iamlucky13 said:


> Did I misunderstand the news reports? Was it not due to a venting battery bursting the flashlight body?



What news reports do you refer to? None of the reports I saw gave any details about the batteries, so how did you infer that it was an 
"off brand" (Li-ion) battery? In fact none of the news reports gave enough details to convince me that the flashlight batteries were the source of the explosion.



iamlucky13 said:


> Regardless, the basic point about discouraging consumer sales remains. I think it was one of your posts that introduced me to Sony's warning to resellers that represented the same concern.



Yes, I agree with the point you were making. I was just curious if you knew more details about that incident.


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## SubLGT (Apr 11, 2018)

From a Nov 2017 article at Korea IT News:

http://english.etnews.com/20171121200001



> ...Samsung SDI is going to greatly increase output of its cylindrical batteries in order to respond to rapid increase in demands from electric tool and electric vehicle manufacturers....According to industries on the 20th, Samsung SDI increased production capacity of its cylindrical batteries from 800 million in last year to about 1 billion in this year [2017]...
> 
> ...said a representative for an industry: “Due to supply and demand for Panasonic’s cylindrical batteries being tight as it has secured entire supply of cylindrical batteries for Tesla’s electric vehicles, many companies are demanding cylindrical batteries from Samsung SDI.”...
> 
> ...Samsung SDI is going to supply its 21700 cylindrical batteries to Tesla for its world’s biggest ESS project that is being established in Australia...Samsung SDI will supply 21700 batteries for Lucid Motors’ initial supply of 20,000 batteries in 2018....


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## iamlucky13 (Apr 11, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> What news reports do you refer to? None of the reports I saw gave any details about the batteries, so how did you infer that it was an
> "off brand" (Li-ion) battery? In fact none of the news reports gave enough details to convince me that the flashlight batteries were the source of the explosion.



I apologize. I assumed it was the battery, but I don't have a source supporting that guess.


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## equyst (Apr 11, 2018)

subscribed, this seems like a very interesting thread


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 11, 2018)

equyst said:


> subscribed, this seems like a very interesting thread




:welcome:


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## Jon-LiionWholesale (Apr 16, 2018)

OK guys, Jon from LiionWholesale here. I was linked to this thread. Let me clarify a bit what I was saying.

Panasonic is still making lithium ion batteries and will continue to do so, but nearly all of their production is now focused on Tesla and other automotive cells. Those automotive cells are very unlikely to get out onto the open market and also are unlikely to be suitable for flashlight use for various reasons. Mainly, many of them will be prismatic style, not cylindrical. Even the Tesla 2170 is not something I would ever recommend using outside of a system designed for it. So for the purposes of where flashlights are concerned, they seem to be phasing themselves out of the market.


While they're still making small numbers of the other cells like the 18650's, they are focusing almost all production on automotive stuff. They are not making nearly enough of the other non-automotive cells to satisfy demand. Many of the non-automotive models are officially discontinued, but some are not, they just aren't making nearly enough of them. All will continue to become harder to get and therefore more expensive.


This is not a rumor. We frequently have big Panasonic authorized battery pack makers coming to us for 18650 batteries now because they can't get them from Panasonic. I think things will mostly move to Samsung SDI and LG Chem for these industrial cells. Even now, those companies are a much better deal in almost all cases.

Hope that clarifies things.


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## Jon-LiionWholesale (Apr 16, 2018)

Kurt_Woloch said:


> One question that, surprisingly hasn't come up yet... does this phasing out also affect the Eneloop line of batteries? AA's and AAA's are also cylindrical, aren't they?



No, to my knowledge it doesn't affect that at all. We're talking about their industrial line of cells, not the consumer line like the Eneloop. I'm not as knowledgeable about their consumer market but I'd be surprised if they stopped selling those.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 16, 2018)

Jon-LiionWholesale said:


> OK guys, Jon from LiionWholesale here. I was linked to this thread. Let me clarify a bit what I was saying.
> 
> Panasonic is still making lithium ion batteries and will continue to do so, but nearly all of their production is now focused on Tesla and other automotive cells. Those automotive cells are very unlikely to get out onto the open market and also are unlikely to be suitable for flashlight use for various reasons. Mainly, many of them will be prismatic style, not cylindrical. Even the Tesla 2170 is not something I would ever recommend using outside of a system designed for it. So for the purposes of where flashlights are concerned, they seem to be phasing themselves out of the market.
> 
> ...



Thanks for the clarification Jon.


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## MrAl (Apr 20, 2018)

Hi,

I guess we just go with the other manufacturers then. Come to think of it now, i dont think i have any Panasonic 18650's unless they were rebranded and so i cant tell. The Sony's are the best anyway, 30 amps


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## Gauss163 (Apr 20, 2018)

I would not trust any claims on such matters unless they come directly from Panasonic. No doubt the industry is recently strongly driven by EV demands, and partnerships such as those between Tesla and Panasonic will affect short term supply. But don't expect to receive accurate information from rumor mills and small companies that supply hobbyists. Sometimes strategic decisions are not even revealed to major partners, so it would not be wise to assume that one can obtain accurate information many further levels down the supply chain.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 20, 2018)

^^^

We will see. We are all entitled to our opinion.

No disrespect, However, I value Jons Opinion more than yours. He is involved directly with these manufacturers and I suspect you are not.


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## Gauss163 (Apr 20, 2018)

IlluminationDomination said:


> However, I value Jons *Opinion *more than yours. He is involved directly with these manufacturers and I suspect you are not.



What do you believe that "He is involved directly with these manufacturers"? Neither Panasonic nor any other top tier Li-ion manufacturer deal directly with small hobby suppliers.They are _many _levels further down the supply chain. So anything you hear at such levels should be taken with a grain of salt.

I value _facts _- not *opinions *and rumors. This thread does not contain even a single verifiable fact on the matter - only unfounded speculation.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 20, 2018)

^^^^

I am not going to argue with you gauss. I browsed this forum for 5 years b/4 joining. I am VERY familiar w/ your interaction/tactics w/ HKJ, Administrators and the average Joe like me.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 20, 2018)

IlluminationDomination said:


> ^^^
> 
> We will see. We are all entitled to our opinion.
> 
> No disrespect, However, I value Jons Opinion more than yours. He is involved directly with these manufacturers and I suspect you are not.



I apologize. I misspoke. What I meant to say is that I trust the INFORMATION Jon got more than G163's opinion.


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## Gauss163 (Apr 20, 2018)

But I gave no opinions above. I merely emphasized the point that there are no verifiable facts posted on this matter - only opinions and speculations by folks very far removed from the source (Panasonic). 

It is important to keep in mind that all sorts of marketing shenanigans can affect such matters. For example, if somewhere along the supply chain some vendor seeks to sway clients towards cells that are more profitable then they could exploit temporary shortages to their advantage by falsely spreading rumors that the shortages will be permanent. Clients far down the supply chain might have no clue that this was happening and may take them at their word (and may have no easy way to verify such claims). 

As such, it is wise to be a bit skeptical of such claims unless they are straight from the manufacturer (and verifiably so).


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## MrAl (Apr 21, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> I would not trust any claims on such matters unless they come directly from Panasonic. No doubt the industry is recently strongly driven by EV demands, and partnerships such as those between Tesla and Panasonic will affect short term supply. But don't expect to receive accurate information from rumor mills and small companies that supply hobbyists. Sometimes strategic decisions are not even revealed to major partners, so it would not be wise to assume that one can obtain accurate information many further levels down the supply chain.



Hi,

It is nice to be sure, but sometimes we just cant be, so we might apply a confidence level indicator.
I'd say i am around 60 percent that they might be phasing out the consumer end of the business. That's over 50 percent because they lost some contracts with clients in the past. It's not any higher however because they have such a good partnership with Tesla so they may convert some of that to the consumer end, especially if they end up with overruns. They are also BTW still for sale on many sites on the net.

Of course we wont know for sure until we hear something more direct as you say, so for now we hash it out a little.


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## StandardBattery (Apr 21, 2018)

Here is one new story. In case you are to young to know better yet, news stories are more often than not wrong on the details, but here it is. I don't think this was posted here yet.

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=20457


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## Gauss163 (Apr 21, 2018)

MrAl said:


> It is nice to be sure, but sometimes we just cant be, so we might apply a confidence level indicator.
> I'd say i am around 60 percent that they might be phasing out the consumer end of the business. That's over 50 percent because they lost some contracts with clients in the past.



What contracts do you refer to?



MrAl said:


> It's not any higher however because they have such a good partnership with Tesla so they may convert some of that to the consumer end, especially if they end up with overruns.



Neither Panasonic nor any other top-tier vendor supply naked Li-ion cells for direct consumer use. Such cells enter the consumer market only through unofficial "back-door" channels not endorsed by the manufacturer. Top-tier manufacturers strongly discourage consumer level use of naked cells. Indeed, they have even sent cease and desist letters to shops selling directly to consumers (e.g Sony).

I don't see anything above that would increase my "confidence level" regarding the above rumors.


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## MrAl (Apr 22, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> What contracts do you refer to?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hi,

I'd have to look it up again to find out what contracts were lost, probably due to it's involvement with Tesla.

But saying that "Neither Panasonic nor any other top-tier vendor supply naked Li-ion cells for direct consumer use" is a moot statement. You are basically saying that no manufacturers products reach the consumer market, or at least trying to say that. You also seem to be implying that if they do have overruns, they throw them in the garbage. Obviously any "letters" had no effect.

But strangely you are arguing that they dont want to sell them, yet you say your confidence level for them NOT selling them in the future will not increase. So that sounds like a contradiction. Either you think they will sell less or you think they will sell more, or you think they will not change. So which is it.


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## Gauss163 (Apr 22, 2018)

MrAl said:


> I'd have to look it up again to find out what contracts were lost, probably due to it's involvement with Tesla.



If you are referring to news reports over the last half-year about Panasonic shortages (speculated to be due to reallocation to Tesla) then I don't believe that this temporary move implies anything about the topic at hand (rumors on Panasonic exiting the cyclindrical cell market). If you refer to something else then please provide links.



MrAl said:


> But saying that "Neither Panasonic nor any other top-tier vendor supply naked Li-ion cells for direct consumer use" is a moot statement. You are basically saying that no manufacturers products reach the consumer market, or at least trying to say that. You also seem to be implying that if they do have overruns, they throw them in the garbage. Obviously any "letters" had no effect.



No, you seem to have misinterpreted my intent, which was merely to emphasize that Panasonic does not target consumer use of loose cells, so this will have little if any role on their long-term strategies in the cylindrical cell market. 

For hobbyist use I would be less concerned about temporary shortages and more concerned about the shift to different cell formats. Most top-tier suppliers are retooling their 18650 assembly lines to meet the strong demand for larger EV cells (21700 etc). Once major pack manufacturers switch to the new formats there will be little demand left for 18650, so they may no longer be manufactured by top-tier companies.


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## MarioJP (Apr 22, 2018)

I always wondered about loose cells being sold to consumers due to safety concerns. But here we are. You go to Amazon or any other shops, you see devices that takes loose cells even the new 21700 now. Will this change or business as usual?


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## Gauss163 (Apr 22, 2018)

^^^ Probably not, i.e. you will still probably be able to obtain top-tier cells in popular-_industrial_-sizes through unofficial channels for "off label" use like flashlights. But once a size is no longer in demand in industry then it may be difficult to obtain through such channels. Currently this seems to have only a slight impact on hobbyist supply of 18650's (flashlights, vaping, etc). But it may play a major role in the near future - depending on how quickly industry switches away from 18650s to larger format cells (driven primarily by strong EV demands)


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## HKJ (Apr 22, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> depending on how quickly industry switches away from 18650s to larger format cells (driven primarily by strong EV demands)



And how fast laptops and tools stops using them.


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## MarioJP (Apr 22, 2018)

The new size format would be quite of an upgrade from the 18650. Who wouldn't want longer runtimes on their devices. Going off on the pics and videos. The new cell format, they're only a slight bigger from the current 18650's. I definitely could see 18650's dying out soon.


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## Gauss163 (Apr 22, 2018)

HKJ said:


> And how fast laptops and tools stops using them.



Already included in my above remark, viz. "Once major pack manufacturers switch to the new formats there will be little demand left for 18650s ...". 

Note that sometimes it is very easy for a manufacturer to upgrade a pack-powered (vs single-cell) device to new sized cells because this may be possible simply by rearranging the new size cells within the original pack - an option not available for single cell devices such as flashlights (with no room to spare). Recently designed devices may have been explicitly designed to handle such changes efficiently.


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## HKJ (Apr 22, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> Note that sometimes it is very easy for a manufacturer to upgrade a pack-powered (vs single-cell) device to new sized cells because this may be possible simply by rearranging the new size cells within the original pack - an option not available for single cell devices such as flashlights (with no room to spare).



Many tool and laptop packs can not just be filled with a larger size batteries. For laptops the laptop must be redesigned to accept a 15mm longer battery pack. There is also the detail about battery packs getting heavier (It is usual not possible to use one cell less).


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## Gauss163 (Apr 22, 2018)

HKJ said:


> Many tool and laptop packs can not just be filled with a larger size batteries. For laptops the laptop must be redesigned to accept a 15mm longer battery pack. There is also the detail about battery packs getting heavier (It is usual not possible to use one cell less).



That's why I wrote "sometimes...". The larger the pack the larger the probability that such repacking can be done efficiently (e.g. for large EV packs this is often quite possible, esp. if they were designed with such conversions in mind).


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## MrAl (Apr 23, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> If you are referring to news reports over the last half-year about Panasonic shortages (speculated to be due to reallocation to Tesla) then I don't believe that this temporary move implies anything about the topic at hand (rumors on Panasonic exiting the cyclindrical cell market). If you refer to something else then please provide links.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hello again,

Thanks for the civil reply and thanks for the clarification. My respect for your replies has now gone up 

As i was saying, I also have to say that i am not sure if it matters if the company targets consumers directly or not because we are getting them, and they know it. I cant say though how this is working out in the long run especially since we see so many devices using 18650 cells and they are DESIGNED to target the 18650 size.
This is a sincere question: How do you explain that, or do you have any idea how this is working out in the long run?
I guess i am a little puzzled because we see devices made for the cells, yet supposedly we are not suppose to be able to get the cells. Add to that the WAY we must be getting the cells, and that tells me that the company knows we can get them but does not want to take responsibility for any problems that come up. So indirectly they are selling to consumers, but bypass any liability. They must KNOW though because there are selling to companies that they know cells them in turn. So i see a little industry trickery here.
Now if i am right, then what i said before does hold water because they will just cells more cells, that's all.

I hope i made this clear, i know this is a somewhat complicated issue.

I too go on Amazon and i can buy 100 different flashslights that take 18650 cells, but do not come with any.
I actually did buy many different kinds already for friends and family over the years.

Lastly, i hope we dont see an end to the 18650 some day as i like all of my lights that take those cells.


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## Gauss163 (Apr 23, 2018)

^^^ No doubt that the top-tier (cylindrical) Li-ion cell manufacturers are aware that somewhere down the supply chain they are being sold directly to consumers. But they do everything possible to discourage this in order to absolve themselves of liability (e.g. see the famous cease-and-desist letter sent by Sony to a vaping shop - which should be read by everyone who uses loose Li-ion cells). 

I see no reason that these unofficial consumer supply chains will disappear absent some major catastrophe that exposes the manufacturers to greater liability (e.g. a vaper is killed and lawyers attempt to sue everyone in the supply chain - all the way up to the manufacturer). What will likely change is that the 18650 format will become scarcer in these channels. But these channels will probably also be able to supply newer formats such as 21700 (and likely soon thereafter will appear flashlights, chargers, etc employing the freshly crowned king-of-_industry _format).


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## MarioJP (Apr 23, 2018)

I remember reading about Sony sending out a cease and desist letter long time ago. But from the looks of things, that cease and desist letter must be a joke as i still see their cells being sold and in stock too lol. 

I do however see a liability page right when you about to place your order with all the safety precautions, etc info associated with these cells and have to agree to place your order. They assume no responsibility if you don't follow safety guidelines.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 23, 2018)

^^^^

I believe Murata supposedly took over their L.Ion cell division last September. The cells still have Sony's name on it, at least for now.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ttery-business-murata-september/#.Wt33JhsvwdU


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## Jon-LiionWholesale (Apr 23, 2018)

Unfortunately I can't give any further detail or proof due to confidentiality and legal reasons but the information I said is definitely not a rumor, we have very official communication to that effect. You can choose to believe me or not.

We also engineer our own brand battery packs and protected button tops for flashlights FYI. As long as batteries are protected, the big manufacturers are totally OK with end consumers getting them. It's the unprotected cells that they don't want going direct to consumer.


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## MarioJP (Apr 23, 2018)

So does this means no more loose cells for consumers in the near future?


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## Gauss163 (Apr 23, 2018)

Jon-LiionWholesale said:


> Unfortunately I can't give any further detail or proof due to confidentiality and legal reasons but the information I said is definitely not a rumor, we have very official communication to that effect. You can choose to believe me or not.



Neither Panasonic nor any other top-tier manufacturer will deal with companies who sell directly to consumers. So I am highly skeptical that you are in direct communication with Panasonic on this matter.



Jon-LiionWholesale said:


> We also engineer our own brand battery packs and protected button tops for flashlights FYI. As long as batteries are protected, the big manufacturers are totally OK with end consumers getting them. It's the unprotected cells that they don't want going direct to consumer.



None of the top-tier manufacturers have ever endorsed the protected single-cell aftermarket rewraps sold to consumers. Please give some evidence to back up your dubious claim that "the big manufacturers are totally OK with this". This directly contradicts what they have said about such matters, e.g the above-linked cease-and-desist Sony letter that I cited above.


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## MarioJP (Apr 23, 2018)

Every time i see this thread gets updated i get nervous lol. I just want to say that what ever the outcome this may be. I just hope it's a win-win for everyone. Being able to swap cells without the waiting part is the reason for loose cells. At least for me anyways i am sure many others have their reasons too. I hate devices with a built in battery and i get why that is. Consumers don't care/ or not the brightest when it comes handling these particular cells. They're not your standard AA's, but then agian, you have primary lithium AA's sold in stores. How is that safe? Lol. But for the most part; most consumers only care that their devices is charged and go about their day. The percentage of users having loose cells is very small (correct me if i am wrong on this) and not quite that common. But i also understand why the concerning part for big manufactures like Panasonic for consumers to have loose cells in the first place. All comes down to liability. So far we have yet to hear another cell vented in vape incident. But man, these cells packs a lot of energy per volume that blows away traditional cells sold in stores.

So anyways, i just hope the outcome is a win-win for all.


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## MrAl (Apr 23, 2018)

Hello again,

It is starting to sound like i will have to give up my 18650 lights some day. That's too bad because these are some of my favorites.

I dont know if i can upgrade to the 21700 cells because i dont think there is enough WIDTH in my big 7 LED T6 light for example. I think i can accommodate the extra length (about 5mm) but the width might be too great to fit in the chamber and not sure if the middle is thick enough to allow retooling. I'll have to check that.
I know the 21700's are better cells, but if they dont fit you must acquit  The flashlight will become moot once your last set of 18650's die off. 
From what i have read the 18650's are a little wider than 18mm, closer to 19mm, which means another 2mm in width for the 21700 approximately. I'll do some measurements.

I looked around the web today too and dont see any really good lights that say that they work with the 21700 cells although i do see the cells themselves being sold now.


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## Jon-LiionWholesale (Apr 25, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> Neither Panasonic nor any other top-tier manufacturer will deal with companies who sell directly to consumers. So I am highly skeptical that you are in direct communication with Panasonic on this matter.
> 
> 
> 
> None of the top-tier manufacturers have ever endorsed the protected single-cell aftermarket rewraps sold to consumers. Please give some evidence to back up your dubious claim that "the big manufacturers are totally OK with this". This directly contradicts what they have said about such matters, e.g the above-linked cease-and-desist Sony letter that I cited above.



The cease and desist letter is talking about cells without circuitry. Reread it. Protected cells have circuitry and are not standalone cells, but are considered to be completed batteries by the cell manufacturers.

I don't really see why I would lie about this, so your skepticism is very curious. But that's your choice.


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## Jon-LiionWholesale (Apr 25, 2018)

MrAl said:


> Hello again,
> 
> It is starting to sound like i will have to give up my 18650 lights some day. That's too bad because these are some of my favorites.
> 
> ...



Don't worry about it. We're talking about Panasonic in particular. There will always be good cell providers in the 18650 size for the foreseeable future.


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## Gauss163 (Apr 25, 2018)

Jon-LiionWholesale said:


> The cease and desist letter is talking about cells without circuitry. Reread it. Protected cells have circuitry and are not standalone cells, but are considered to be completed batteries by the cell manufacturers.



I'm afraid you misunderstand. Below I excerpt part of Sony's cease-and-desist letter and elaborate on its meaning.



Sony" said:


> These [Li-ion] cells were made only to be used in connection with the assembly of battery packs of products such as power tools, which have the necessary enclosure, protective devices and circuitry that enable safe usage of these battery cells. Sony lithium-ion rechargeable battery cells (including those with "VTC" designation) are not intended for use without such packaging or circuitry, and should not be used as a standalone product for instance with e-cigarettes, vaporizer pens or other products of any type.
> 
> The use of any Sony lithium ion rechargeable battery cells as a stand-alone product, including with e-cigarettes, vaporizer pens or other products, constitutes a DANGEROUS misuse of the battery cells that poses a SERIOUS RISK of personal injury or property damage. This matter is significant enough that the U.S. Fire Administration, an arm of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency, released a report ...



The point of the above is that Sony (and every other top-tier) manufacturer does not endorse the use of loose Li-ion cells in standalone products (e.g. 18650s used in vaporizers, flashlights, etc) because there is no way to adequately ensure user safety. This is in contrast to complete professionally designed products where trained engineers have safely integrated Li-ion cells in the power subsystem. Here the engineer has complete control of the design of the battery subsystem so they can ensure that the design meets international safety standards - something that cannot be guaranteed in products using loose cells that are assembled and maintained by the end user.

In case you may not be aware. the safety standards used in designing such systems are extremely comprehensive, designed using fault-tree analysis, FMEA, etc, and incorporating multiple levels of failsafe redundancy. For example, the safety standards employed for laptop batteries consider hundreds of possible safety cases, even the case that a pet urinates on a PC, e.g. below from the IEEE 1625 standard







It is such professionally designed battery subsystems that Sony refers to above. This does not include loose 18650 cells wrapped with a protection circuit by random third-parties. In fact, many knowledgeable folks consider these to be even less safe than loose unprotected cells in various contexts. For example, the metal tab running down the side of the cell increases by an order of magnitude the area where a small metal object can induce an internal short (the tab is positive and the entire cell can is negative) - the cause of many "pants on fire" incidents in the vaping community. Further, there is no protection from mechanical shock, which can easily damage the protection circuit (of which there are many reports) - leaving the user with a false sense of security.



Jon-LiionWholesale said:


> I don't really see why I would lie about this, so your skepticism is very curious. But that's your choice.



No one accused you of lying. As for my choice of what to believe, I'm an (MIT-educated) scientist so, of course, I will choose science and facts over rumors and misunderstandings.


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 26, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> I'm an (MIT-educated) scientist



"Labels" are indicative of importance.It is the heart that counts where Ego and Pride Cease to Exist.


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## MrAl (Apr 26, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> I'm afraid you misunderstand. Below I excerpt part of Sony's cease-and-desist letter and elaborate on its meaning.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hi,

Very interesting.
I just read the FEMA report, it seems to target the e cigarette applications only.
The main concern seems to be the encasing method due to the "rocketing effect" a cell can have when it ignites.
I believe a lot of flashlights would prevent this from happening even though there could still be a fire. So i think we are good to go, as long as it's a well made strong shell flashlight. All mine are, especially the big one which has thick walls.
The only question i would have for those lights is, where exactly will they vent from then. I have a feeling it would be from the front end where the LEDs are located but i'd have to check to see if they built a firewall between the tops of the batteries and the LED mounting platform.

Most problem cases occurred during use or during charging.
Less than 200 cases over some 8 years and none fatal makes it safer than flying


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## Jon-LiionWholesale (Apr 26, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> I'm afraid you misunderstand. Below I excerpt part of Sony's cease-and-desist letter and elaborate on its meaning.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



OK, yes. What you are saying has nothing to do with the letter though, it seems you misunderstand what is written there. That letter is very clearly and specifically calling out selling loose unprotected cells. Sure, the cell manufacturers prefer applications like what you're saying with a million line DFMEA that includes everything from "pet urination" to "pine martens chewed on the positive wire while standing on the negative wire after taking a bath in saltwater" to "meteorite made of pure copper hits the side of the battery", but that is beyond the minimum required in order to make a battery pack. I'm sure you know that just because a higher standard exists for batteries in a certain application (laptops in the case of IEEE 1625), that doesn't mean every battery in every application has to conform to that standard. "loose cells" means unprotected, in battery speak. That is what the letter is about.

Despite your misgivings about the protected single cell batteries, if designed correctly they are absolutely safer than unprotected cells. They meet the criteria of what the cells are designed for as listed in the letter, having both protective devices/circuitry, and an enclosure (thick PVC) protecting from short circuits. I would understand if you disagree that they're safer due to the potential issues you posted but you would be in the minority there, and for sure it cannot be said that the letter is trying to address these single cell battery packs.

I may have graduated from Penn State and not MIT, but I am an engineer who is actually working in this industry who is also obsessed with science and facts and would never share information where the truth is not 100% certain. So I understand where you're coming from with wanting to make sure this isn't rumor, but I think you're mistaken that your disagreement comes from facts in this case.


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## WalkIntoTheLight (Apr 26, 2018)

I think you have to realize that safety standards are designed to protect the most stupid people in society, and those who have been permanently cursed by voodoo witch-doctors. Hopefully, none of us would do incredibly dumb things to our 18650 lights or cells. If you use them as intended, they'll be safe. Be an idiot, and they'll be unsafe.


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## Gauss163 (Apr 26, 2018)

Jon-LiionWholesale said:


> OK, yes. What you are saying has nothing to do with the letter though, it seems you misunderstand what is written there. That letter is very clearly and specifically calling out selling loose unprotected cells.



The scope of the letter is most certainly not restricted only to _unprotected _(single) cells. Please read it more closely.



Jon-LiionWholesale said:


> Sure, the cell manufacturers prefer applications like what you're saying with a million line DFME ... I'm sure you know that just because a higher standard exists for batteries in a certain application (laptops in the case of IEEE 1625), that doesn't mean every battery in every application has to conform to that standard. "loose cells" means unprotected, in battery speak. That is what the letter is about.



They don't "prefer" packs that meet safety standards. Rather they insist on such - as is made clear in the Sony letter I posted. You seem to misunderstand the gist of the letter.



Jon-LiionWholesale said:


> Despite your misgivings about the protected single cell batteries, if designed correctly they are absolutely safer than unprotected cells. They meet the criteria of what the cells are designed for as listed in the letter, having both protective devices/circuitry, and an enclosure (thick PVC) protecting from short circuits. I would understand if you disagree that they're safer due to the potential issues you posted but you would be in the minority there, and for sure it cannot be said that the letter is trying to address these single cell battery packs.



As I emphasized in a prior post, single cells with protection circuits added by random 3rd parties have many deficiencies. They have never been endorsed for general public use by any reputable / top-tier manufacturer. Nor will they ever be, since they are _far _from meeting the safety of professionally designed battery packs. Claims to the contrary are common by low-tier (Chinese) rewrappers - who clearly don't give a damn about the safety of their users. It is sad to see such unfounded claims being propagated even further by some USA sellers.

I'm not sure if you are serious or joking about the "thick PVC enclosure" sheathing protected cells. In case you are serious, you should be aware that the _thin _PVC wrapper on protected cells is often ripped open when used by hobbyists, and it most certainly does not suffice as the sort of "enclosure" mentioned in Sony's letter. An adequate battery (pack) enclosure must not easily be breached and must also protect the circuitry from mechanical shock. You don't have to read very far in vaping or flashlight forums to see how poorly that "thick PVC enclosure" performs in this regard. Its frequent failure is one of the primary causes of accidents reported by hobbyists.

Given that you are selling Li-ion cells directly to the public I encourage you to learn more about safety matters, and use that knowledge to help educate your buyers. The little safety warning blurb that you append on your web pages is far from adequate in this regard (e.g. it does not even mention why Li-ion cells pose a much higher risk of shorts vs. other common consumer cells - one of the primary sources of accidents).


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## Gauss163 (Apr 26, 2018)

WalkIntoTheLight said:


> I think you have to realize that safety standards are designed to protect the most stupid people in society, and those who have been permanently cursed by voodoo witch-doctors. Hopefully, none of us would do incredibly dumb things to our 18650 lights or cells. If you use them as intended, they'll be safe. Be an idiot, and they'll be unsafe.



But use of Li-ion cells is now ubiquitous due to the popularity of vaping. Moreover the ability to safely use Li-ion cells requires more than just intelligence. It also requires the _discipline _to religiously follow safety rules. Otherwise the one time you get lazy you may end up like the hobby shop owner who left his pack unattended for 10mins and it burned down his shop.

Properly designed Li-ion devices help cover our *** when we make the inevitable human error - whether it be from lack of safety knowledge, laziness, etc.


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## WalkIntoTheLight (Apr 26, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> But use of Li-ion cells is now ubiquitous due to the popularity of vaping. Moreover the ability to safely use Li-ion cells requires more than just intelligence. It also requires the _discipline _to religiously follow safety rules. Otherwise the one time you get lazy you may end up like the hobby shop owner who left his pack unattended for 10mins and it burned down his shop.
> 
> Properly designed Li-ion devices help cover our *** when we make the inevitable human error - whether it be from lack of safety knowledge, laziness, etc.



There's also examples of laptops burning down shops when left unattended and plugged in. I don't rely on safety mechanisms protecting me from problems. I make sure never to charge any lithium-ion device (or loose cells) when I'm not home or when I'm sleeping.

During charging is really the only time I'm paranoid of lithium-ion batteries. During use, or sitting idle, they shouldn't cause a safety issue unless there's something wrong (like a short). Measure voltage before and after charging, and you should be good to go. Yeah, there is a very rare chance of a cell catching fire for no reason, but there are way more dangerous things in life.

For lazy people (or newbies), I always recommend Eneloops.


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## MarioJP (Apr 26, 2018)

While that incident happened 2015. Hopefully by now people have learned that liion is not to be taken lightly. What is interesting enough that not many consumers even know what is a 18650, at least from what i have encountered.

And the other half of it is knowing where to buy these cells. I do not trust Ebay or even Amazon when it comes to buying liion's. Oh and those ultrafires claiming 9800mAh. How are these allowed to sell?? That should be illegal for false advertisements and putting users at risks.

How are these sellers in question are able to continue doing business knowingly these cells are a dud.


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## Gauss163 (Apr 26, 2018)

WalkIntoTheLight said:


> There's also examples of laptops burning down shops when left unattended and plugged in.


Alas, even the best protection circuits can't help much in the case of internal shorts (one of the major causes of such problems). But there are improvements (ceramic separators, heuristic prediction of impending shorts, etc) which have helped minimize such risks compared to early times. 



WalkIntoTheLight said:


> I make sure never to charge any lithium-ion device (or loose cells) when I'm not home or when I'm sleeping.



That's one of the primary safety rules for Li-ion.


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## iamlucky13 (Apr 26, 2018)

I think we're getting a bit off track here. Lithium ion safety is and should be a perennial topic, but the focus of this discussion was the current and future availability of Panasonic cylindrical cells.

Between what we know about Panasonic and what Jon from Liion Wholesale says he has been told, plainly cylindrical cell production continues. It seems reasonable to accept that supply for small quantities of Panasonic cells is tight and should be expected to remain so. And Panasonic is likely to continue to discourage or perhaps even try to more actively prevent 2170 cells from being sold this way.

One part of the discussion I was curious about was Jon's comment:



Jon-LiionWholesale said:


> Those automotive cells are very unlikely to get out onto the open market and also are unlikely to be suitable for flashlight use for various reasons. Mainly, many of them will be prismatic style, not cylindrical. Even the Tesla 2170 is not something I would ever recommend using outside of a system designed for it. So for the purposes of where flashlights are concerned, they seem to be phasing themselves out of the market.



Why do you consider the 2170 less suitable for flashlights than the 18650 or 26650 cells already widely in use? Does that opinion apply even to a notional protected 2170 cell?


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## IlluminationDomination (Apr 26, 2018)

^^^
He obviously can speak for himself. But I think the answer or at least part of is in the quote of his that you provided.


_Mainly, many of them will be prismatic style, not cylindrical. _


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## nbp (Apr 26, 2018)

Thank you ~iamlucky13. Yes, please let’s stay on topic. There are other threads for battery safety.


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## Jon-LiionWholesale (Apr 26, 2018)

iamlucky13 said:


> Why do you consider the 2170 less suitable for flashlights than the 18650 or 26650 cells already widely in use? Does that opinion apply even to a notional protected 2170 cell?



I'll answer this one just to wrap up the discussion.

I'm specifically talking about the Tesla 2170. Not the 21700 cells being made for non-Tesla use. Other 21700s in general, for example the ones we and others are selling, would be expected to be the same level of risk/safety as the 18650s.

I'm not very informed about the 2170 specifically since not much information has been released and on this front I don't know any more than anyone else, so this could be an incorrect guess, but in general Tesla has always pushed for a minimum of safety features in their cells, preferring to do external safety protections in the pack instead. Even unprotected cells do have some safety features built in which I expect the Tesla cells are probably missing some or all of them based on their past design decisions.

Now hopefully we can get back on topic .


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## HighlanderNorth (Apr 30, 2018)

I heard that Panasonic most certainly will not be producing 48940 batteries. But it's also likely that they never planned on making 48940's to begin with.... Lol


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## snakebite (Apr 30, 2018)

afaik none of the high rate cells have ptc,fuse leads,tearoff tabs,ect.
if you short them bad things happen quickly.
protection hinders these type of cell too much.
thats why tesla uses cell level fuses.
as to panasonic stopping production of other cylindrical cells the writing has been on the wall a while.
they are fading fast due to all newer laptops moving to flat lipo.



Jon-LiionWholesale said:


> I'll answer this one just to wrap up the discussion.
> 
> I'm specifically talking about the Tesla 2170. Not the 21700 cells being made for non-Tesla use. Other 21700s in general, for example the ones we and others are selling, would be expected to be the same level of risk/safety as the 18650s.
> 
> ...


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## MrAl (May 2, 2018)

Hello again,

I had not figured the non cylinder cells into the picture yet. That's worse yet. I am almost sure that my bigger light would need a very big mod to get it to work with the new cells that are not cylindrical. It would need the part of the light that holds the batteries to be enlarged or something and shaped so that it holds the cells properly and makes good contact with the top contact area.
This would require significant rework of the main body of the light, just not the head.
Since the body screws on, i would need a lathe that could handle around 2.5 inch diameter pieces, and since i dont have that i would have to find another way like maybe bolt a new body onto the head. Probably tap and thread the head to accept machine screws, like 3 or 4 of them. Maybe then make the bottom come out to replace/charge the cells.

Deserves much more thought though. Maybe start a thread about this kind of thing, for different kinds of lights?


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## SubLGT (May 8, 2018)

> ...On its Feb. 5 earnings call, Panasonic said it missed targets for its rechargeable battery division, which includes its automotive batteries for Tesla. “We didn't earn as much as we hoped in areas we considered promising, but we surpassed expectations everywhere else,” Chief Financial Officer Hirokazu Umeda told reporters. Panasonic expects its battery business to lose 5.4B yen in 2018...



https://www.freightwaves.com/news/2018/2/28/has-tesla-hit-a-wall-on-battery-cost-improvements


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## SubLGT (May 9, 2018)

> ...Japan’s Panasonic Corp lifted its outlook for earnings this year [2018] after reporting a 23 percent jump in third-quarter operating profit on healthy sales of car components and factory automation equipment...
> 
> ...Production delays in the Model 3 have led Panasonic to downgrade the full-year forecast for its rechargeable battery business to an operating loss of 5.4 billion yen from a profit of 6.6 billion yen previously, highlighting the impact of any change in strategy at the U.S. electric vehicle maker...
> 
> ...It started mass production of battery cells at Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada earlier last year and started mass production at a new plant in Dalian, China in December. It is also adding new production lines in Japan....



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ings-surge-on-automotive-demand-idUSKBN1FP0UO


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## MarioJP (May 10, 2018)

Hope Panasonic has a plan B for those extra cells that will soon be overstocked after this

https://read.bi/2IxRXsD


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## idleprocess (May 10, 2018)

iamlucky13 said:


> 2.) Heavy demand in the EV industry especially means some battery types are not easily available other than in industrial quantities.
> 
> 3.) Small cylindrical cells are expected to be replaced in many applications in the long term by large prismatic cells. This is not happening yet, but some folks in the distribution chain may be prematurely assuming it's imminent.



Tesla initially went with 18650 because it was a *commodity*:

Almost every cell manufacturer made 18650
Every chemistry was available in 18650
Every new advancement in Li-Ion was immediately available in 18650
_Short of a massive investment in volume production_, 18650 lead other formfactors in priceerformance - $/WH, $/peak amp, $/cycle, etc
The 18650 format makes for relatively simple thermal management due to its high surface area : volume ratio; the small diameter results in better heat dissipation throughout the cell
In a multi-kWH pack, if a handful of 18650 cells degrade or fail the effect on performance will be negligible relative to a pack with fewer, larger cells

Tesla could follow the major automakers into larger-capacity prismatic packs. But for the reasons above, they still use small cylindrical cells in their packs. Their transition to 20700s doesn't really change this: high-density (3.5AH) 18650s are ~12.5WH while their 20700 cousins (4.8AH) are ~17.25WH. I gather that the other automakers aren't as enamored with cylindrical cells and have opted for large prismatics - perhaps to ensure supply via contractual arrangements with suppliers, perhaps out of habit and their traditional spare parts business, and also perhaps out of packaging concerns: most of the electric cars they've produced in the last <10 years since CA lease-only _compliancemobiles_ have given way to mass-market vehicles sharing a platform with an ICE model, thus their packaging requirements might demand space efficiencies that Tesla's clean sheet designs do not. Boeing's first iteration of 787 batteries highlights some of the inherent problems with large prismatic cells - greater surface area:volume efficiency begets unavoidable thermal resistance that's hard to monitor and can't necessarily be managed under high-draw conditions.

18650s might fall out of favor with laptop manufacturers who are steadily transitioning to Li-Po, but I expect cylindrical cells to remain popular with power tool manufacturers. They demand a physical robustness that Li-Po can't offer, and even moreso than Tesla are dependent upon standard sizes. It's _possible_ that the availability of standard prismatics with dimensions similar to cylindrical cells such as the 18650 and 21700 might find foothold in applications where volumetric efficiency is a must, but that brings added cell costs, some sacrifice of mechanical robustness, the efficiency bump is small, and such designs would largely negate the minute amount of cooling that cylindricals offer in the gaps between cells in a hexagonal arrangement.


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## Gauss163 (May 11, 2018)

idleprocess said:


> Tesla initially went with 18650 because it was a *commodity*:
> 
> _Short of a massive investment in volume production_, 18650 lead other formfactors in priceerformance - $/WH, $/peak amp, $/cycle, etc
> [...]
> Tesla could follow the major automakers into larger-capacity prismatic packs. But for the reasons above, they still use small cylindrical cells in their packs. Their transition to 20700s doesn't really change this: high-density (3.5AH) 18650s are ~12.5WH while their 20700 cousins (4.8AH) are ~17.25WH. I gather that the other automakers aren't as enamored with cylindrical cells and have opted for large prismatics - perhaps to ensure supply via contractual arrangements with suppliers, perhaps out of habit and their traditional spare parts business, and also perhaps out of packaging concerns [...]



That's not quite accurate. 18650's do not lead other form factors in price performance (even restricted to cylindrical format). That's one of the primary reasons why other EV manufacturers have chosen larger prismatics instead - which further offer greater design flexibility, e.g. they don't suffer from an ~100μm limit on electrode thickness in cylindrical cells (any thicker and the electrode coating would crack because they are _wound _in cylindrical cells vs. stacked in prismatics).

The transition from 18650s to larger format 20700s _does _change it, e.g. it lowers their cost/kWh to be much closer to prismatics (e.g. see the final chart below where "Optimistic"=20720 NMC cells are only slightly costlier than prismatics).

Below are excerpts from a 2017 study that extends the common BatPaC PBCM (process-based cost model) for cell manufacturing costs. The model incorporates all of the steps involved in cell manufacture, e.g.











Below is a chart summarizing their results. There "BaseLine" = 18650 cell, "Optimistic" = 20720 cell, and "Prismatic" = 25Ah prismatic cell. Notice the large improvements that the 20720 offers - esp. in the higher-rate LMO chemistry on the left. There note that the (per kWh) cost of the 18650 materials alone is almost the same as the entire cost of the prismatic - which highlights the reduction in hardware costs afforded by using larger format prismatic cells.






Excerpted from: Comparison between cylindrical and prismatic lithium-ion cell costs using a process based cost model, by Rebecca E. Ciez, J.F. Whitacre, Jnl. Power Sources, 340 (2017) 273-281.


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## idleprocess (May 11, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> That's not quite accurate. 18650's do not lead other form factors in price performance (even restricted to cylindrical format). That's one of the primary reasons why other EV manufacturers have chosen larger prismatics instead - which further offer greater design flexibility, e.g. they don't suffer from an ~100μm limit on electrode thickness in cylindrical cells (any thicker and the electrode coating would crack because they are _wound _in cylindrical cells vs. stacked in prismatics).


Perhaps I should have emphasized my point to a greater degree. _At the time that Tesla was getting started_ with the Roadster launch in 2008 and during the run up to the Model S in 2012, 18650 Li-Ion cells were the best choice for the company. Their *then* highly competitive price : performance ratios along with being an industrial commodity meant that a fledgling startup could make cars using a COTS product using existing supply channels and focus limited financial/engineering resources on more pressing needs.

Their continued reliance on cylindrical cells may be due to tooling / plant synergies between 18650/20700 footprints, easy transition of pack control electronics/cooling/management, or some other business strategy that negates the performance gap between cylindrical and prismatic cells. The fate of the Model 3 will be telling, however I doubt that a ~5-20% cost delta on the *cell cost* _(pretty sure they're not using high-rate chemistry)_ will be the primary cause of their demise should the Model 3 fail.


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## Gauss163 (May 11, 2018)

idleprocess said:


> Perhaps I should have emphasized my point to a greater degree. _At the time that Tesla was getting started_ with the Roadster launch in 2008 and during the run up to the Model S in 2012, 18650 Li-Ion cells were the best choice for the company [...]



Many folks disagree with that, since the same sort of analysis as above shows a great advantage for prismatics.


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## HKJ (May 11, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> Many folks disagree with that, since the same sort of analysis as above shows a great advantage for prismatics.



That is always a interesting analysis, who knows best: The people doing and using the money or the people that sit back and tries to analyze whats happening. 

If the world was based on university people, it would probably never move forward, it needs people doing things, even if xx% of university people says it is a bad idea. Sorry, but we got way to many cases with "educated" people says something that do not match with the practical experience optimal solution. I know that they can show experiments that match exactly with what they say, but they do not explain the limitation of the experiments.

With the above, do the analysis show that prismatic cells are best with Wh/weight, Wh/volume, Wh/impact, Wh/safety, Wh/power, Wh/??? or only on some of the parameters?

I *believe* that cylindrical cells may have an advantage due to mechanical robustness and cooling.


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## idleprocess (May 11, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> Many folks disagree with that, since the same sort of analysis as above shows a great advantage for prismatics.



If you want to dig out figures circa _2003-2008_ to demonstrate that Tesla f__ked up, knock yourself out; the 2017 date on your seemingly-paywalled excerpt suggests it's based on analysis a *markedly* closer to today than when Tesla was planning the Roadster and Model S ~15 years ago. Make sure you look into the commitments that the battery industry likely would have demanded in exchange for a moderately more efficient product and compare that to their early financials.


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## Gauss163 (May 11, 2018)

HKJ said:


> That is always a interesting analysis, who knows best: The people doing and using the money or the people that sit back and tries to analyze whats happening.
> If the world was based on university people [...]



I don't understand why you are so often skeptical of professional literature. While no doubt there is plenty of academic research on Li-ion tech that never becomes practical, the above is very far from that. Such process-based cost models are widely used in industry for such purposes. If you do a web search on the term you can quickly find links to such applications, e.g. the excerpt below mentions a few. 



> PBCM was developed for analyzing the economics of emerging manufacturing processes prior to investment [19] and extended to show the implications of alternative design specifications and process operating conditions on production costs [11]. Today, process-based cost models have been used to assess material, design architecture, and process decisions ranging from composite automobile body production and assembly [20,21] to photonic and electronic semiconductor chip design [22][23][24][25], to printed circuit board and optoelectronic transceiver assembly [24,26,27] and packaging [28,29]. The forecast of a PBCM is based on a detailed simulation of each step of the production process and the interaction across these steps in the full production system. ...


PBCM is not some pie-in-the-sky research that never made it out of ivory towers. Rather, it is a standard technique widely used in industry. Likely the large cell manufacturers use this (or similar) methods to perform such analyses. The only difference is that they may be able to do slightly more precise analyses since they have access to more precise (cost) data, etc.

The results of the paper I linked are consistent with other analyses and general industry trends. I see nothing at all controversial in their results so I am baffled why anyone would be so skeptical of these results.


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## Gauss163 (May 11, 2018)

idleprocess said:


> If you want to dig out figures circa _2003-2008_ to demonstrate that Tesla f__ked up, knock yourself out



Those were your claims, so that is your responsibility. The decisions made by Tesla way back then may have been motivated by other factors unrelated to pure cost analysis. Musk's logic does not always appear to be rational, and is often questioned by experts.

The paper was linked through sci-hub, so is freely accessible.


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## StandardBattery (May 11, 2018)

Gauss163 said:


> I don't understand why you are so often skeptical of professional literature. While no doubt there is plenty of academic research on Li-ion tech that never becomes practical, the above is very far from that. Such process-based cost models are widely used in industry for such purposes. If you do a web search on the term you can quickly find links to such applications, e.g. the excerpt below mentions a few. .....



Well if you go back and look at what all the experts had said about Musk's 18650 plans early on, you would hopefully come away with a healthy skepticism of 'experts'. Some of those experts might have even commented on the first cellular phone systems.


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## Gauss163 (May 11, 2018)

StandardBattery said:


> Well if you go back and look at what all the experts had said about Musk's 18650 plans early on, you would hopefully come away with a healthy skepticism of 'experts'. Some of those experts might have even commented on the first cellular phone systems.



I have no idea what that vague remark is supposed to mean. Likely it has little if any relationship to the matters I mentioned above.


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## IlluminationDomination (May 12, 2018)

My thread has certainly turned into an interesting and EGO inflated debate. Who is right, who has to be right and who needs to be right?

Time will tell if it has not already!:shakehead


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