# SwineFlu cases



## fieldops (Apr 24, 2009)

This Swineflu problem is really starting an uproar in spots. Lots of rumors and speculation as well. Hopefully it does not turn into a more serious situation. I've always been a preparedness person and have considered pandemics in my long term planning. I know there are many well prepared people on this board as well like Sub_Umbra and others. What do people think of this situation?


----------



## Sigman (Apr 24, 2009)

I hate news like this! Hope they can contain it...


----------



## fieldops (Apr 24, 2009)

Sigman said:


> I hate news like this! Hope they can contain it...




Yeah, me too. I was hopeful when they said that the disease was fairly mild. Unfortunately, after reading up on the 1918 flu, I found that the initial wave then was mild also. I hope things works out ok. The recession is enough already.


----------



## Sigman (Apr 24, 2009)

I thought they said it had already killed 61 people?


----------



## fieldops (Apr 25, 2009)

Sigman said:


> I thought they said it had already killed 61 people?



For some reason, the US infected persons have all recovered. Maybe better medicine here, not sure. Check out the following site...it's got excellent info. It's a good place to keep an eye out for infectious disease.

http://www.promedmail.org


----------



## AlexGT (Apr 25, 2009)

Most affected were in rural communities (Oaxaca) where access to nutritious foods and modern hospitals and medicines are rare, and most people usually decide to rest and take analgesics.

I like that they have acted to close down schools on friday and possibly for next week and open all general hospitals, IMSS and ISSSTE and rural clinics, 24/7 to take care of the sick.

Hope they contain and it doesn't mutate.

AlexGT



fieldops said:


> For some reason, the US infected persons have all recovered. Maybe better medicine here, not sure. Check out the following site...it's got excellent info. It's a good place to keep an eye out for infectious disease.
> 
> http://www.promedmail.org


----------



## LuxLuthor (Apr 25, 2009)

It's all over The Drudge Report, especially when earlier discussions were about closing the US-Mexico border (which would just close legal travel). Apparently Roche's Tamiflu controls it while they work on a vaccine.


----------



## [email protected] (Apr 25, 2009)

Sorry to hear that . Us in Australia has it good in a pandemic. As an island nation closing borders is a piece of cake. Also one of the drugs that works against it is developed here about 5 kays from my house. Good luck to the American and Mexican cpfers. :thumbsup:


----------



## dano (Apr 25, 2009)

Another sky-is-falling media story (i.e. like the Bird Flu nonsense a few years back). It's not something that should effect anyone's everyday routine.


----------



## KC2IXE (Apr 25, 2009)

The cases here in NYC are a high school about 1/2 mile from me, that my godson goes to


----------



## 3rd_shifts mom (Apr 25, 2009)

According to the CDC, regarding the current Swine Flu outbreak, there have been 8 cases reported in the US. There have been 6 cases in California and 2 in Texas.
Tamiflu is reported to help if received soon enough.

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/pdf/HAN_042509.pdf


----------



## fieldops (Apr 25, 2009)

dano said:


> Another sky-is-falling media story (i.e. like the Bird Flu nonsense a few years back). It's not something that should effect anyone's everyday routine.



I sure hope you're right. The recession has taken enough out of us as it is.


----------



## LuxLuthor (Apr 26, 2009)

fieldops said:


> I sure hope you're right. The recession has taken enough out of us as it is.
> 
> 
> dano said:
> ...


I don't think it is quite as simple as how dano characterized it. Mexico's Calderon has declared a state of emergency, and closed down all business, school, and public events in Mexico City. 

While people's irrational fears amplify something like this, it is going to have quite a real impact, and already has had. This is already way bigger than the bird flu scenario.


----------



## [email protected] (Apr 26, 2009)

This is bad... The leader of the green party in Australia wants a complete blockade of airports... :sad: . This is almost the same virus that killed 50 million people in 1918.


----------



## LuxLuthor (Apr 26, 2009)

Get your Tamiflu now.


----------



## Flashanator (Apr 26, 2009)

This is real scary!!!!

I'm serious, if this heads to Australia, I'm gonna camp out in the middle of nowhere with food for months, avoid contact with anyone.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Apr 26, 2009)

Pandemics and bioterror threats frighten me much more than events that seem to get the most coverage over the last few years, like hurricanes. With hurricanes and some other types of threats the population really has a lot going for it: 

• 72 or more hours of warning prior to the event 

• "Last minute" opportunity (of sorts) to stock up on food, water, RX meds, cells, etc 

• Opportunity to flee if desired

Pandemic/bioterror events, however, leave no such options as they are *come as you are partys.* Official government response to serious events of this sort will involve what is referred to as *Shelter In Place* strategies. While I think that this is the proper response for those threats we must remember that the term *Shelter In Place* is used in an attempt temporarily avoid some of the panic that begins the instant that the word *quarantine* is used. Essentially that's all that Shelter In Place is.

Stepping back for a moment it's not hard to see why pandemic/bioterror events have the potential to create far more havoc than a hurricane, quake, fire, flood or major power outage. The vast majority of your neighbors don't have a two week supply of food/water/RX etc for their loved ones but as poorly thought out as their situation is, at least for many serious emergencies they may quickly do what they think will prepare themselves *or just flee.* Not so in the case of a pandemic/bioterror event.

I written a few times that in any serious disaster you will most likely actually be hit with *two* disasters: the first is the event itself and the second disaster will be the ill-prepared, poorly thought out response from your local, regional and national governments. In a pandemic/bioterror event we will likely face *a third disaster* in addition to those just mentioned -- because of the Shelter In Place response and the overwhelming lack of accepting responsibility on a personal and family level you will likely find yourself cooped up in your house as your foodless, waterless neighbors quickly go nuts and start trying to think of ways to keep their kids from starving.

They won't be *allowed* to flee. The quarantine will go far beyond the official plan in many locales. History tells us that panic will cause local LE and often ordinary citizens to block roads, highways, railways, airports, etc -- these unofficial actions will just be self preservation taking over and will occur here and there *in addition* to the national government's quarantine effort. It will be hard to find people in civil transportation who will want to leave their families and expose themselves to what's out there. 

What quarantine/Shelter In Place really means is that everyone *will be forced* to sit tight with their families where they are, with whatever they've got on hand while the government begins the hugely complex task of designing and implementing *ad hoc* distribution systems for food/water, RX meds, and energy -- perhaps on a *national* scale. It's also important to realize that just because you hear on your radio that the Authorities are beginning to distribute food (or whatever) at various points that definitely does not mean that you will want to be among the first to have to rely on them. These new distribution networks certainly will not work well, especially in the beginning. When they begin they will be totally overwhelmed. Some will go there for what was promised on the radio and they will die there. You will need to listen to your radio and have enough stock so that you won't have to rely on the new net until it's safer. While it may seem obvious, a three week stock will give you more options than a two week stock and a two week stock will be much better than just one week if only for the above reason. You don't want to be in the mobs that show up in the beginning of mass distribution.

This all means that the threat of a breakdown of the social order will have much greater potential in these scenarios. It means that no matter how well stocked you are you may have to take early action to protect yourself from those outside your house. Now is the time to stock that big roll of six mil black plastic for blacking out windows.

In the aftermath of Katrina I couldn't wait for my neighbors to get out. Unprepared neighbors are a very real threat to preppers.

The Bug-Out-Bag is a great tool but it should be mentioned that it will be of limited utility in quarantine situations.


----------



## Empath (Apr 26, 2009)

It looks as if quarantines won't be an option. Federal opinion is that the spread of the disease cannot be contained.

http://www.emergencyemail.org/newsemergency/anmviewer.asp?a=356&z=34

There are some common sense precautions you can take to protect yourself and others.

http://www.emergencyemail.org/newsemergency/anmviewer.asp?a=353&z=29

Mexico's deaths have now exceeded 80.

The Emergency Email Network has just started posting advisements and alerts regarding this flu. You can sign up at the Emergency Email Network.


----------



## DM51 (Apr 26, 2009)

It's worth pointing out (in case none of the links given so far have mentioned it) that wearing a disposable mask is not an indication that the user is panicking or over-reacting. It's a sign that he/she is being sensible and considerate. 

These masks will not prevent users from contracting the disease, but they _will_ help prevent them from passing it on.


----------



## WadeF (Apr 26, 2009)

On average over 90 people die everyday from the flu in the USA, about 36,000 per year. So why are we all scared of this Swine flu that only killed 81 people so far, in Mexico. Could have been elderly, immune compromised, etc, that died. People who didn't get help or take care of themselves, etc. Over 1,000 other people in Mexico that had it lived. No one in the USA has died from it yet. We have drugs that can treat it. 

What's the big fuss? The media is getting the best of some of you.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Apr 26, 2009)

http://www.emergencyemail.org/newsem...asp?a=356&z=34

That's a really weird link. Weird statement. I searched for some context and couldn't find any. What are we to conclude from this cryptic statement -- is she saying that everything that the CDC has planned to do (and puiblished) for years about future flu pandemics won't work and has been thrown out? Or is it the end of the world? What in the hell is she trying to say? 

It is frustrating when the CDC makes poorly thought out statements.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Apr 26, 2009)

WadeF said:


> On average over 90 people die everyday from the flu in the USA, about 36,000 per year. So why are we all scared of this Swine flu that only killed 81 people so far, in Mexico. *Could have been elderly, immune compromised, etc, that died*...What's the big fuss?


Emphasis mine.

According to an *AP article:*


> "...Nearly all those who died in Mexico were between 20 and 40 years old..."


That's pretty much what the fuss is about. Viri that are virulent enough to cut a swath through *young, healthy* populations are what are feared most. That is the stuff pandemics are made of.

It would appear that the flu cases in the states are more run of the mill, affecting an age range of from 9 to 50 and lacking the lethality of the Mexican virus. One US official stated that if they hadn't been on alert because of the Mexican situation, they wouldn't have even noticed the US cases as they are so mild in comparison.


----------



## nitesky (Apr 26, 2009)

Any flu death is tragic but it does not appear to be a scene out of The Stand. It does appear the US is acting out of an "abundance of caution." Perhaps as a test of their own capabilities? 

Remembering the "white powder scares" after 9/11 I wonder if we won't see something similar as people take too much counsel from their fears.

Go to work, school, church, flashlight shopping, etc, until advised otherwise


----------



## Sgt. LED (Apr 26, 2009)

We're all gonna DIE! AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHh...........

Just like in The Stand.


----------



## ypsifly (Apr 26, 2009)

Sgt. LED said:


> Just like in The Stand.



I thought I saw Randall Flagg walking down the street on my way to work yesterday.

WadeFhit on something I was thinking earlier today while reading articles about the flu. From what I recall, the folks who die from the flu in the US are usually the old, the weak, the very young, and the very poor. Seems like these epidemics start in places where people are impoverished and lack access to good health care and proper sanitation on some level. A bunch of people die in the immediate area, the disease is carried to a more affluent area and is eventually controlled.

SARS scared the crap out of a lot of people, killed a number of people in the places it was first found, but was controlled once it went global and eventually more or less stopped when resources were sent to the areas first hit.

The only american killed by SARS caught it in China and died in Viet Nam. It showed up in Toronto but was contained fairly quickly.

The Swine Flu seems to be following suit. Showed up in an area where people are without good health care, killed people, has crossed borders and for now seems treatable. I'm hoping we get on top of this and stop it in its tracks. I'm also hoping we learn from it and are more prepared for something on the level of Captain Trips and the Andromeda Strain. 

Who knows what kind of bugs are gonna be waiting for us down the line.


----------



## fieldops (Apr 27, 2009)

Sgt. LED said:


> We're all gonna DIE! AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHh...........
> 
> Just like in The Stand.



Just beware of taking up with any psycho chick with white hair


----------



## fieldops (Apr 27, 2009)

Sub_Umbra said:


> This all means that the threat of a breakdown of the social order will have much greater potential in these scenarios. It means that no matter how well stocked you are you may have to take early action to protect yourself from those outside your house. Now is the time to stock that big roll of six mil black plastic for blacking out windows.
> 
> In the aftermath of Katrina I couldn't wait for my neighbors to get out. Unprepared neighbors are a very real threat to preppers.



Unfortunately, this is true. People who are otherwise civil, can become animals when their bacon is on the line. Especially if they know that *YOU* have provisions.


----------



## LuxLuthor (Apr 27, 2009)

This is not like routine flu, and should not be thought of in that manner. The rapid widespread incidence throughout the world, deaths of 20-45 year olds, combination of Avian, Swine, Human DNA components in the virus, possibility of more lethal mutation, and no available vaccine combine to make this quite unique.

I also agree it is being irrationally blown beyond what is sensible. None-the-less, get your Tamiflu or Relenza now...especially if you are not a paragon of good health, and have prescription insurance with a minor co-pay. Roche only has 3 million doses of Tamiflu which can also be taken prophylactically. You have been warned.

Also, check this stock jump for Biota who makes Relenza


----------



## chmsam (Apr 27, 2009)

If you want to lessen your chances of getting it or spreading it, remember these things:

- Cover your sneezes and coughs. Use a facial tissue or your sleeve, and do NOT use your hands. Handkerchiefs might just let the germs be caught to be spread around later so they're not a first choice.
- Wearing a mask will not prevent you from getting it but if you have the flu, a mask can help keep it from spreading.
- Wash you hands often in hot, soapy water. Most people don't wash their hands anywhere near long enough -- take your time.
- Keep common surfaces clean and disinfected. Telephones, cell phones, doorknobs, keyboards, etc.
- If you get the flu, STAY HOME! If you don't want the flu, why do you think anyone else wants it? Staying home will lessen the chances it will spread.
- Do not touch your eyes or nose with your fingers or your hands.

Guess what? All of this is common sense stuff and things people should do all the time anyway.

The flu pandemic in the early 1900's was at a time when medical care was far less advanced, especially for home care. People did not properly treat it or really understand how it spreads.

There are no vaccines for the swine flu so the flu shot you got last fall won't work for this. 

If you think you're coming down with it, see a doctor as soon as you can. Antiviral drugs work best if you get them within the first day or two of coming down with it. People are contagious for as long as they have symptoms and some (mostly children) for up to a week afterward. If your symptoms get worse, if you have trouble breathing, if you have chest or abdominal pain, if you get a high fever, if you have uncontrollable diarrhea or vomiting, or sever dehydration, get medical help immediately. That's just common sense stuff too.

Eating pork will not give you the swine flu.

The media and others are playing this up because if it is not treated properly people might die, but another reason a lot of people are worrying about it is the amount of lost work time it could cause. This is a nasty flu but not a cause for panic.


----------



## LuxLuthor (Apr 27, 2009)

A layman's Q&A on why this episode is unique.


----------



## chmsam (Apr 27, 2009)

A local radio show this morning had on a virologist (gee whiz, an actual expert, someone who wasn't just a "talking head," had an MD, and everything!). His comments were that this is not really anything new. Sure it is contagious but not ridiculously so and what he would call virulent (i.e.: it isn't killing a lot of people and it ain't like Ebola). He put it this way, there's a school in Queens with quite a few cases but there are not quite a few cases in Queens let alone in NYC. He also mentioned that no one lately has been accusing the media of _under_stating a story.

He said what I posted above and that it was stuff we should do anyway even if it's only to keep from getting colds more frequently. Biggest thing he said was cover your coughs and sneezes, don't use the tissue again -- they're cheap so just throw them away, and that if you get sick, stay home. Basically he said don't be a dummy.

And I gotta ask a burning question. Why do women always keep used tissues? I've never seen one who would throw the things away. Yuck.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Apr 27, 2009)

> ...The flu pandemic in the early 1900's was at a time when medical care was far less advanced, especially for home care. People did not properly treat it or really understand how it spreads...


True, but IMO any advantages in healthcare have probably been completely negated by threats associated with mankind's advances in *transportation* since the early 1900s.

If you pick any major city in the Western World, for example, in any given day travellers will arrive from cities *on every continent* where they were mixing with the local populations *less than 24 hours earlier.*

IIRC the Spanish Flu (avian) of the early 20th century took roughly a full year to circle the globe and burn itself out. If they had had the transportation system *that we have today* it would have spread around the world in a matter of a few weeks, *or even less,* perhaps. Even with *perfect* governmental coordination on an international level, Earth's 'black market' would pose a huge problem to those who would try to contain it. 

I agree that there is much hype about this in the news. We must not let the craziness of what is left of the press lull us into inaction. Preparing for a potential Swine Flu quarantine is not like throwing money down a rat hole. *Those same preparations* will give you countless options in the event of any of a thousand things that may strike our high tech society.

As an example, when I wrote in an earlier post that now is the time to buy that roll of 6 mil black opaque plastic I didn't mean that anyone should run out and get it just for the current Swine Flu scare. I meant that it is time to be prepared to take up the slack for the good of your family if any of the many complex services we take for granted in the 21st century fail. Personal note: I bought a big roll of black plastic ten years ago in the run-up to Y2K. It sat unused for five years until I broke it out for the *exact same use I bought it for* -- as Katrina approached.


----------



## LuxLuthor (Apr 27, 2009)

As an example of what I said earlier, after picking up Tamiflu for two of us at local Stop & Shop CT pharmacy where there have not yet been any Flu cases, their one store has received 71 prescriptions just today, and already have been told that the available stock has been depleted today, including all of their stock distributors.


----------



## chmsam (Apr 27, 2009)

I'll bet that there are a lot of areas that won't see a single case but will still blow out of the prescriptions. There are even more news reports tonight with doctors telling people to just calm down. Let's hope this is being as blown out of proportion as it sounds. Sounds like it.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Apr 27, 2009)

> I'll bet that there are a lot of areas that won't see a single case but will still blow out of the prescriptions...


Yeah. Every dose will be sold out everywhere. It would be interesting to know how many of those buying it up have two weeks worth of food at home...


----------



## Empath (Apr 27, 2009)

I think the warnings against "the media", as the evil "sky is falling" promoters is the propoganda itself. The media reports on what the agencies report. The latest report from an agency, the World Health Organization has raised the pandemic alert level to phase 4.

It's relayed, not by "the media", but by the agencies' information relay systems.

Trying to form such absurd political propaganda positions of "it's a media trick" is absolute foolishness; but unfortunately there are some that have been groomed into thinking and promoting that every fact must be transformed into political opinion.


----------



## chmsam (Apr 27, 2009)

CDC- The Swine Flu and You.

CDC - Swine Flu Overview

I for one am not playing down the seriousness of this at all. Most of the reports I have heard today say that if you look at the number of cases, even considering fatalities, you can see that the odds are by far in everyone's favor _as long as folks use common sense._ The doctors I have heard today (from a wide variety of sources) still say that they certainly do not deny it is serious but put it along the lines of SARS and bird flu, both of which were/are serious but did not develop into full blown pandemics. And they said that even if it is widespread, they do not anticipate seeing it to anywhere near the severity or mortality that has been seen in the communities in Mexico.


----------



## LEDAdd1ct (Apr 27, 2009)

This afternoon, I tried to figure it out.
This evening in class, I tried to figure it out.
Tonight while coming downstairs to the computer, I tried to figure it out. 

I give up.

What is the roll of black plastic for?


----------



## chmsam (Apr 27, 2009)

To "shelter in place." At about half way down the page on this page from the ready.gov site you can see what they mean. Clean Air at Ready.Gov. Post-9/11, especially after a number of real and false anthrax incidents, there was a lot of information about stuff like this.


----------



## Mike Painter (Apr 27, 2009)

Sub_Umbra said:


> That's pretty much what the fuss is about. Viri that are virulent enough to cut a swath through *young, healthy* populations are what are feared most. That is the stuff pandemics are made of.



True but realize that, like the Spanish Flu it is the immune system of those young and healthy that are causing the problems. The deaths came more from the system over reacting and not from the flu itself.
Proper medical care is much better at handling this type of problem then it was in 1917.

However, will all you young snd healthy people remember me when their family disposes of their flashlights.
I'm 68...


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Apr 27, 2009)

I don't know who to put my trust in. The last real hub-bub about the Swine flu that I recall was in the 70s and there were *more fatalities* among those who listened to the medical advice and got the Swine flu shot than those who didn't and just took their chances with the flu. The fact that medical science has come so far did little to comfort the survivors of those who followed the official advice and died.

When it comes to medicine I'll have to just have a look at what's out there and make my own decisions. I'm 58 and I made it through the last Swine flu event..I'm *cautiously* optimistic about this one...


----------



## fieldops (Apr 27, 2009)

LEDAdd1ct said:


> This afternoon, I tried to figure it out.
> This evening in class, I tried to figure it out.
> Tonight while coming downstairs to the computer, I tried to figure it out.
> 
> ...



It's a means of stealth at home. It's to minimize the amount of light that gets out from people still at home. If people don't see you in there, the less attention they will pay. This applies to people who want what YOU have and public officials that want to REMOVE you from your home. 

Sub_Umbra noted its value in Katrina. 

I have researched similar stealth in "acoustics". Keeping your generator from being heard can be important. I used four acoustic sound ceiling panels to send the sound "upward". Once you get a few feet away, it's already hard to hear the generator. In some disasters, thieves simply follow the generator sound to know where their next victims are located.


----------



## saabgoblin (Apr 27, 2009)

Sub_Umbra said:


> I don't know who to put my trust in. The last real hub-bub about the Swine flu that I recall was in the 70s and there were *more fatalities* among those who listened to the medical advice and got the Swine flu shot than those who didn't and just took their chances with the flu. The fact that medical science has come so far did little to comfort the survivors of those who followed the official advice and died.
> 
> When it comes to medicine I'll have to just have a look at what's out there and make my own decisions. I'm 58 and I made it through the last Swine flu event..I'm *cautiously* optimistic about this one...


Medical science has come a long way but were medical science falls short is in the ramifications of medical science and science in general. Now go wash your hands!


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Apr 27, 2009)

fieldops said:


> ...I have researched similar stealth in "acoustics". Keeping your generator from being heard can be important. I used four acoustic sound ceiling panels to send the sound "upward". Once you get a few feet away, it's already hard to hear the generator...


That is really cool, fieldops. After the K event I actually talked to a couple of engineers about reducing the noise signature of generators and they were totally baffled (no pun intended). That's great.


----------



## StarHalo (Apr 28, 2009)

chmsam said:


> And they said that even if it is widespread, they do not anticipate seeing it to anywhere near the severity or mortality that has been seen in the communities in Mexico.



This is key; some of the fatalities that are being reported from Mexico are those who simply didn't bother to take action once they became ill. Others weren't even given the opportunity - one man waited until he was quite sick and went to a local hospital, but was turned down because he wasn't properly registered for national health care. Jon Stewart said it best on The Daily Show; Mexicans are still much more likely to die from Bullet Flu, which is airborne..

Even a casual glance at the "what you can do" newsbytes will tell you that there's not much to worry about. It boils down to:

- To prevent getting the flu, do what you normally do to prevent illness.

- The symptoms of the flu are the same as a normal flu.

- Treat the flu the same way you would normally treat a flu.

And that's it. No fatalities in the US or Canada from Swine Flu thanks to "business as usual". It's not a pandemic if you can treat it with NyQuil.


----------



## Lit Up (Apr 28, 2009)

LuxLuthor said:


> Get your Tamiflu now.




Nah, between oil pulling, garlic, neem and elderberry, it will kick it.


----------



## chmsam (Apr 28, 2009)

Sub_Umbra said:


> I don't know who to put my trust in. The last real hub-bub about the Swine flu that I recall was in the 70s and there were *more fatalities* among those who listened to the medical advice and got the Swine flu shot than those who didn't and just took their chances with the flu.


Moot point this time around since there is no vaccine for this swine flu.

By the way, people do understand that the reason common cold and flu outbreaks work so well is that they are slightly different strains each time, right? Each strain is unique.

The CDC said in a news briefing yesterday that probably one of the best ways to prepare for dealing with the swine flu is to pre-plan how to deal with school closings (if it ever comes to that) so people know that their children will be looked after while they are at work. That was suggested more than wearing masks, loading up on meds, etc.

Now if we could only get people to quit sneezing in each others faces and to start washing their hands once in awhile. Simple stuff but so many people still just don't get it. It's like we are a nation of 3 year old children.


----------



## LEDAdd1ct (Apr 28, 2009)

chmsam said:


> Now if we could only get people to quit sneezing in each others faces and to start washing their hands once in awhile. Simple stuff but so many people still just don't get it. It's like we are a nation of 3 year old children.



I absolutely 100% stand by this! Those who know me consider me a germaphobe, but the truth is, between keyboards, doorknobs, railings, handles, shopping carts...the list goes on-

why _wouldn't _you wash your hands before touching your face/eating?! I really cannot understand why many people do not do this. The other thing that irks me is when I see people "washing their hands" by rinsing them for two seconds. I tell children to sing "Happy Birthday" to themselves twice so that they know they have washed their hands long enough. Covering one's mouth and washing one's hands are so simple, yet so blatantly ignored (at least in the U.S.) that I truly wonder how much of a reduction in communicable diseases we would see if *everyone* washed their hands before touching their face and/or eating.


----------



## Empath (Apr 28, 2009)

An interesting site for monitoring the situation.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Apr 28, 2009)

Sub_Umbra said:


> I don't know who to put my trust in. The last real hub-bub about the Swine flu that I recall was in the 70s and there were *more fatalities* among those who listened to the medical advice and got the Swine flu shot than those who didn't and just took their chances with the flu. The fact that medical science has come so far did little to comfort the survivors of those who followed the official advice and died.
> 
> When it comes to medicine I'll have to just have a look at what's out there and make my own decisions. I'm 58 and I made it through the last Swine flu event..I'm *cautiously* optimistic about this one...





> Moot point this time around since there is no vaccine for this swine flu.


I couldn't disagree more. I apologize for not being clearer about what I was trying to say. Let me try again. 

While it's true that there is no Swine flu shot this time around, there is far more to the equation than that. Let's start by looking at the dynamics involved in bringing the bad Swine flu shot to the public over thirty years ago. It illustrates nicely why individuals today must think very carefully about decisions made for the country's well being. No conspiracy theories, just an examination of the way important decisions have been made and will continue to be made for the forseeable future. 

*In addition* to the labs that came up with the flu shot that killed people, there were also those in the industry that reviewed the work of those who who made the flu shot. After *everyone involved* in the development and production of the flu shot that killed more people than the flue *signed off on it* it was then time for the politicians to make their mistakes. Gerald Ford signed off on it and recommended that all Americans have the shot.

The key here *is not the shot.* The thing to take away from this is that all of the decisions were made by *humans* and are therefore subject to a high degree of folly. That's just the way humans are. Some of the *bad decisions* were made by *scientists;* some were made by *bureaucrats* who are key in nearly all endeavors (including medicine.) Then to cap it off a *politician* makes the last bad decision (*next* to the last, actually. No one was *forced* to take the shot.) 

What makes it interesting is that there is so much about these decisions that may have had nothing to do with medicine. In a potential pandemic situation where the health of hundreds of millions or even billions of people hang in the balance, life and death decisions will be made by politicians, economists and even the military. These decision makers have a few things in common, aside from the fact that they are *not* a part of the medical culture. They are bureaucrats and as such have at least some of the same concerns as all bureaucrats do: will this decision grow or shrink their bureaucracies and their budgets, as well as more generalized questions that range from subjects like their careers to their daughters college education. Some have accused Ford of basing his decision on his plans for the upcoming election. These are all *human issues * not *medical issues.* *Because* so much of ALL big medical policy issues are resolved by mere humans, often with their own self interest at heart, I am suspect of all of them and will always try to read between the lines and sus out the truth before I decide on a course of action for myself and my loved ones.

I'm sorry I wasn't clearer, chmsam.

NOTE: I'm not trying to introduce partisan politics into this discussion. Far from it. I'm asserting that all pols, regardless of stripe, have and will behave the same way. I have made no comment on the administration's handling of this subject. I'm only pointing out that aside from other non-medical disciplines, politics will also *always* be involved in any issues with the potential to affect this many people. *That's what politics is for.* I'm not taking sides one way or the other on any political issue concerning this subject.


----------



## chmsam (Apr 28, 2009)

In the US it's hard to get people to stop sneezing into their hands (and to use tissues or a sleeve instead), to use a tissue only once and not to hang on to it, to not touch their eyes, mouth, or nose without washing their hands (before and after), and (hardest of all) to wash their hands when common (or maybe it's _un_common) sense says to do so. These are cultural bad habits. 

Moms still spit into a (dirty) tissue and wipe the faces of their children. :green:

Like I've been saying, a little Lysol spray and Purell goes a long way.


----------



## chmsam (Apr 28, 2009)

As for the vaccines, leaving politics, theories, and impressions aside, it takes up to a year to come up with an effective vaccine. Previously the rush to get some medicines to the market might have allowed some of them to be released before as much testing as could have shown problems was completed. There could be 101 reasons from pure greed to pure altruism for that and I don't want to go into that kind of speculation. 

I will agree that there's too much finger pointing and not enough fixing of actual problems though. Often it has nothing to do with politics or anything other than it's a popular thing to do and it's a colossal waste of time and effort here and elsewhere. That's a topic for the Underground.


----------



## StarHalo (Apr 28, 2009)

Vincent: Want some bacon?
Jules: No man, I don't eat pork.
Vincent: Are you Jewish?
Jules: Nah, I ain't Jewish, I just don't dig on swine, that's all.
Vincent: Why not?
Jules: Pigs are filthy animals. I don't eat filthy animals.
Vincent: Yeah, but bacon tastes gooood. Pork chops taste gooood.


----------



## jtr1962 (Apr 28, 2009)

LEDAdd1ct said:


> why _wouldn't _you wash your hands before touching your face/eating?! I really cannot understand why many people do not do this. The other thing that irks me is when I see people "washing their hands" by rinsing them for two seconds. I tell children to sing "Happy Birthday" to themselves twice so that they know they have washed their hands long enough. Covering one's mouth and washing one's hands are so simple, yet so blatantly ignored (at least in the U.S.) that I truly wonder how much of a reduction in communicable diseases we would see if *everyone* washed their hands before touching their face and/or eating.


What I _really_ don't get is people not washing their hands after they use the toilet. Bad enough not to do this when you make #1, but unbelieveable that I see lots of people leaving the men's room without washing after doing _the other thing_. :green: And then they sit down to finish their Big Mac.  Sad to say, but I've noticed we've become ever more complacent about good personal hygiene. That's really the key to keep from getting swine flu or any other disease. I even wash off soda and milk bottles before putting them in the fridge. No way of knowing who touched it before me.

Another pet peeve of mine is when sick people try to be a hero and go to work/school. That's about as inconsiderate as it gets. If I had employees I'd fire them on the spot for showing up to work sick. They're not doing anyone any favors.

IMO we've become too reliant on technology (vaccines, antibiotics) to keep us safe, and have forgotten other common sense measures. I remember stories about when my grandparents immigrated here how they turned away anyone with even the slightest hint of a cold or other disease. Nowadays it seems we don't bother screening anybody (that's one reason TB is on the rise after nearly being eradicated). And don't even get me started on the ease with which disease can spread via air travel. It should be a lot harder to travel abroad than it is, and those returning from countries known to harbor many communicable diseases should have to remain in quarantine for a week or two as a matter of course. I don't care how inconvenient this makes things. Doing so probably would have alerted us to the initial cases of swine flu before they had a potential to spread to the general population. If we ever have another pandemic it's going to be largely caused by our own complacency and stupidity.


----------



## fieldops (Apr 28, 2009)

jtr1962 said:


> What I _really_ don't get is people not washing their hands after they use the toilet. Bad enough not to do this when you make #1, but unbelieveable that I see lots of people leaving the men's room without washing after doing _the other thing_. :green: And then they sit down to finish their Big Mac.




This is absolutely true. Horrible


----------



## LEDAdd1ct (Apr 28, 2009)

I, LEDAdd1ct, a man addicted to LED lights of varying tints and outputs, hereby propose that in order to prevent the further transmission of swine flu and other communicable diseases that

1) All persons worldwide shall be required to wash their hands after using the restrooms

and, that

2) All persons worldwide shall be required to cover their mouth and nose when sneezing with their shoulder or inner arm

and, that

3) All persons worldwide shall be required to wash their hands before eating and/or drinking

and, that those persons found guilty of breaking these rules as set forth here will be punished by no less than

a) A stern talking to 

and will further be required to

b) Sing "Happy Birthday" aloud in a loud, clear voice while washing their hands, in public or private, to provide proof that said person is adequately killing and/or removing the germs from those hands.

This law, here written at 10:55 P.M. E.D.T., shall be taken with a very large grain of salt, though not before washing one's hands under hot, soapy water.


----------



## StefanFS (Apr 29, 2009)

jtr1962 said:


> What I _really_ don't get is people not washing their hands after they use the toilet. Bad enough not to do this when you make #1, but unbelieveable that I see lots of people leaving the men's room without washing after doing _the other thing_. :green: And then they sit down to finish their Big Mac.


 
I've been to several major European airports during the last week. In all restrooms at those airports I've been running between stalls trying to find one where the previous occupant actually cared enough to flush, at the same time trying not to step in something... I've never seen that before in my travels around the world. I'm glad I had antiviral tissues/wipes.


----------



## rala (Apr 29, 2009)

Recently, at my facility, we had a young man expire. Due to the nature of the case, it was referred to the coroner according to normal hospital policy. Apparently, the coroner leaked info that the deceased had flu like symptoms to the media and they swarmed the facility. I had to call in more staff to control traffic and keep the media at a distance. The media went so far as blocking traffic in and out of the facility, and on neighboring streets trying to dig up anything. They would stop people trying to get in and ask, "Are you aware that someone here died of the Swine Flu?" Or, "Did you know that people here have been exposed to the Swine Flu?" They were stating it as if it were fact. All they did was cause panic, when nothing had been confirmed yet. Instead of helping by informing the public, they caused panic by misinforming them. It made all of our jobs within the hospital harder. Here we are trying to help people, and the media, in the persuit of ratings, lies to them. Oh, by the way, shortly thereafter, it was confirmed that the man's death was unrelated and the media went digging elsewhere.


----------



## DM51 (Apr 29, 2009)

The panic and hysteria is becoming absurd. Earlier today I saw a woman shouting at a TV reporter that she was "devastated" that her daughter had been put at risk of Swine Flu by attending the same school as another pupil who had not yet arrived home from a holiday in Mexico. Work that one out.


----------



## ResQTech (Apr 29, 2009)

*New Swine Flu Masks!*


----------



## fieldops (Apr 29, 2009)

DM51 said:


> The panic and hysteria is becoming absurd. Earlier today I saw a woman shouting at a TV reporter that she was "devastated" that her daughter had been put at risk of Swine Flu by attending the same school as another pupil who had not yet arrived home from a holiday in Mexico. Work that one out.



Oh boy, it figures. Next we'll start getting those lawyer ads saying " have you or a loved one ever been affected by flu like symptoms" :shakehead


----------



## saabgoblin (Apr 29, 2009)

*Re: New Swine Flu Masks!*

Priceless and as an added benefit, they also smell like bacon!


----------



## LuxLuthor (Apr 29, 2009)

WHO raising now to level 5 isn't helping those who want to keep a proper perspective. Well look on the good side, they can only raise it one more level.


----------



## AlexGT (Apr 29, 2009)

This is the new 20 pesos bill that is going into production in my beloved Mexico J/K







There is a saying there "Me rio para no llorar" "I laugh so I don't have to cry" Hope they get the situation under control soon.

A fellow friend in Mexico told me that a package of face masks are going for $80 dollars! supply and demand? WOW!


----------



## AlexGT (Apr 30, 2009)

After a careful and methodical investigation scientists have finally found the source of the swine-flu!


----------



## Wits' End (Apr 30, 2009)

The Google map shows many confirmed cases in USA, 112 suspected in Australia.

CDC updated April 29, 2009, 9:45 PM ET 91 cases

BBC-WHO fears pandemic is 'imminent'


> <<<Page last updated at 08:41 GMT, Thursday, 30 April 2009 09:41 UK>>>
> After Mexico, the US has recorded the next highest number of confirmed cases, with 91. ............
> A senior health official in Europe says it is not a question of whether people in Europe will die, but how many - perhaps hundreds or thousands..........
> Announcing the latest alert level after an emergency WHO meeting in Geneva, Director General Margaret Chan urged all countries to activate their pandemic plans, including heightened surveillance and infection-control measures.........................
> ...


Obama Tells Americans, ‘Wash Your Hands’



> And while the government is prepared to do what it can to stop the illness from spreading, he said individual Americans must also do their part: “Keep your hands washed, cover your mouth when you cough, stay home from work if you are sick, keep your children home from school if they are sick,” Obama said.
> 
> “This is obviously a serious situation, serious enough to take the *utmost precautions.”* [mine again ]...............
> 
> Obama noted that he has asked Congress for an immediate $1.5 billion in emergency funding, for “adequate vaccine supplies” and equipment to handle a potential flu outbreak........


My advice? 2¢
Take sensible precautions, pray. AND Don't let the goverment control your health care. Especially by force.


----------



## TITAN1833 (Apr 30, 2009)

Chances are it will be under control before the pigs come home :green:,well lets hope so anyway :twothumbs

Yes! I know swine flu is not to be sniffed at but! don't panic help is at hand


----------



## LuxLuthor (Apr 30, 2009)

Poor little dead Piggies 400,000 and counting.

Here is more stupidity.


----------



## chmsam (Apr 30, 2009)

There are also other countries examining their swine. While it is not possible to get swine flu from eating pork the virus has been transferred from pigs to humans so at least the study of swine populations is justified for that reason. The same is done for diseases in other animals and if viruses are found, the resulting actions are usually the same but hopefully only after confirmation of disease.

Because of the possibility of getting this thread closed, maybe the political stuff is more appropriate in the Underground.


----------



## Empath (Apr 30, 2009)

chmsam said:


> Because of the possibility of getting this thread closed, maybe the political stuff is more appropriate in the Underground.



Indeed it is.

The attempts to paint it as blown out of proportion by the media ignores the fact that it is only one step down from the highest level by the World Health Organization. The attempts to pass it off as U.S. present administrative political efforts to tighten control over it's people leaves those that find such comments as being absolutely worthy of a direct rebuttal in an unfairly disadvantaged situation. Those willing to take the topic to the Underground to discuss the matter in the proper forum are left at a disadvantage due to the political opinionated snipers being apparently fearful of facing opposition in a forum where such spirited discussion is permitted.

Promoting such without taking it to the Underground is an effort to promote one's political opinion knowing that those opposing such views will have to remain silent.

Take the politics to the Underground, where everyone can speak their piece.


----------



## LuxLuthor (Apr 30, 2009)

Despite the legitimate classification as a level 5 pandemic (which is based upon specific, pre-agreed upon scientific criteria designed to empower governments & various world agencies), it is certainly good news that there have not been more deaths in the 20-45 year old ages, and some of the previously reported deaths in Mexico have been revised downwards. 

The major danger with this outbreak which has evolved from animal to human infection route into spreading human to human has always been that one of the billions of replicating viruses can randomly mutate into a much more invasive and lethal subtype strain--apparently that has not yet happened.


----------



## TITAN1833 (Apr 30, 2009)

To be totally honest this thing should now be down graded level 5 comedy IMO and discussed in such away! I for one have had enough of the scaremongering these past years.I mean come on! we have had mad cow lol the very next day I went out and tucked into a 20oz steak! did I contract mad cow no! :thinking:"err well maybe a little"  so I'm going to carry on trotting and snorting around the world as I see fit .:nana:




[edit] Oh and FWIW we have one confirmed where I live,Redditch England.


----------



## McGizmo (Apr 30, 2009)

When a person is infected with the flu and capable of transmitting it, are they also aware of their illness? If yes, then the scope of this flu and number of those ultimately infected will depend on the considerations of individuals more than anything else. As individuals, we don't want to be exposed to or become subject to any illness. If we are the one who is under the weather, how considerate are we, of others? Will we stay home and avoid contact with others? Will we be more conscientious in restricting the potential spread of what ails us by washing our hands, covering our cough and limiting our movements about?

I recall traveling in Japan in '89 and seeing people wearing filter masks. I asked a guide if these people were afraid of getting sick and I was told that in most cases, these were people who were suffering from a cold or flu and wearing the masks so as not to transmit their malady. I took her statement on face value and was left impressed that members of a densely populated society could be so considerate and responsible! I saw the Golden Rule in practice and reflected on how the health of others was put above the individual and their desire to look "cool" or blend in. 

Are we as individuals more inclined to put on a silly looking mask to avoid becoming infected or to keep from passing a potential infection, on to others?

On a bit of a tangent, the few people I have known in the medical profession seemed to work excessive hours and often with the lack of proper meals and sleep. I would think that their exposure to various illnesses was much greater than the norm and yet many of them seemed less likely to be sick than those of other professions. My gut tells me that a healthy and strong person gains some of that health and strength by being exposed, to some extent, to germs and viruses that would do them harm. Don't many vaccines work by subjecting the individual to a weak dose of virus or germ that the individual can overcome and thus be guarded against future exposure? In this day of anti bacterial everything and parents striving to avoid any exposure to germs by their kids, are they setting the kids up to a vulnerability and inability to deal with nasties that do exist out there? I don't think I have been very clear on expressing my thoughts here but perhaps some of you caught the drift. :shrug: What spurred this comment on was the mention of comprehensive cleaning and washing of hands and such. Certainly these habits are a means of avoiding infection and exposure but I think there may be a downside to attempting too much sterility?!? :thinking:


----------



## chmsam (Apr 30, 2009)

Concerning the wearing of masks in Japan, it's a cultural thing certainly. Used to be (and I don't know if it still is) that the person responsible for an accident like tripping over something wasn't just the person at fault initially but also the person who could have prevented the accident (i.e., if you left a roller skate at the top of the stairs and I walked past it but didn't pick it up, I would also be at fault). Most of the rest of the world does not think that way. That's too bad.

As for the medical types being healthier because they are exposed to more germs, that seems to me to be like saying smokers ought to have healthier lungs than nonsmokers. Seems more probable that it is because they are more likely to get vaccines and other medications earlier and on a more regular basis than the rest of us and also to be more habitual toward doing things like washing hands and keeping things cleaner in general. All of that would reduce the potential of catching diseases in the first place.


----------



## LuxLuthor (Apr 30, 2009)

This is a new headline link from The Drudge Report, and I post it with no political motivations as Empath has correctly underscored.

Rather, I post it so you can listen to Press Secretary Gibbs give a factual video report of the sequence of how specific people with symptoms have spread it to other people here in the USA. It helps to understand how easily these airborne viruses spread.

Again, fortunately at this point the virus has not mutated into a highly invasive strain, so all these instances he describes should be manageable.


----------



## PEU (Apr 30, 2009)

Not trying to downplay the swine flu, but lets not forget its a flu, its not AIDS or Ebola. 

This particular flu we don't have antibodies for and its new to most of us (I guess pig farmers have some kind of inmune response already available due to extended contact w/pigs)

People die in Mexico the same way they die here in Argentina of Dengue (disease spreaded by mosquitoes) We share the same problem: crappy health coverage for the lower classes.

Since its a flu, there are already means of controlling it, name it tamiflu or whatever, so if you have proper medical care and you enjoy good health you shouldn't be too worried.

A vaccine, it will come and we will be prepared next time, now there isn't enough time to manufacture and distribute them.

Can't help it, the cynic side of me wants to show his face, IMHO this swine flu event is being used as smoke to hide the problems the USA (and the world) is having with the recessive economy. 

And last but not least, pandemic sounds horrible, knowing how the WHrg scalates its levels helps understand and be more relaxed: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

Take a look at the current level 5 definition:



> *Phase 5* is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.



Now that you read what phase 5 means, think the thousands of diseases that meet the criteria.

Let's be calm, is not the end of the world 


Pablo


----------



## DM51 (May 1, 2009)

TITAN1833 said:


> To be totally honest this thing should now be down graded level 5 comedy IMO and discussed in such away! I for one have had enough of the scaremongering these past years.I mean come on! we have had mad cow lol the very next day I went out and tucked into a 20oz steak! did I contract mad cow no! :thinking:"err well maybe a little"  so I'm going to carry on trotting and snorting around the world as I see fit .:nana:


LOL, Titan! 

Here's an interesting article in the Guardian newspaper (UK) by Simon Jenkins. He is a well-respected commentator, formerly an editor of the London Times.


----------



## Crenshaw (May 1, 2009)

Perhaps its ploy by pork haters to rule the world!



Crenshaw


----------



## chmsam (May 1, 2009)

It's amusing to see lots of people buying out medicines, masks, and Purell but still walking around sneezing on each other and wiping their nose on their hand. Yeah, Bugs was right -- they're Maroons.

Ya'd think that unless they were 12 year olds trying to get out of taking a geography test that they would not want to catch the flu or even a cold.

"Simple is as simple does." If the worst that happens with any flu is that you cough, sneeze, and feel like crap for a week, why would you not do something easy to avoid it? Let alone just show some manners.

"That which does not kill me does not make me stronger. It just makes me feel like do-do for a solid week."


----------



## StarHalo (May 1, 2009)

My wife has the flu! 

They pretty much just blew her off at the local hospital; didn't test to see if it was any specific flu, and sent her home with a prescription paper that said "Elderberry extract". I always wondered how/why people stocked up on flu vaccines when they didn't have an illness, now all that remains is the how part..

Ah, fate isn't done with me yet. I'll just go park my truck..


----------



## Marduke (May 1, 2009)

Global swine flu deaths - 10
US swine flu deaths - 1
Seasonal flu deaths in US only, since January 2009 - 13,000

Overreacting to an imaginary "pandemic" - priceless


----------



## dano (May 1, 2009)

Marduke said:


> Global swine flu deaths - 10
> US swine flu deaths - 1
> Seasonal flu deaths in US only, since January 2009 - 13,000
> 
> Overreacting to an imaginary "pandemic" - priceless



On an average year in the U.S, there's 30,000 flu deaths. Globally, there's 500,000 reported flu deaths each year.

A majority of the Mexican flu deaths are the direct result of a lack of even rudimentary health care.

The Hog Flu is a joke.

The media is salivating at the ratings; Sweeps Week is coming. Locally (Bay Area) every newscast begins with: "Global Pandemic" "Global flu catastrophe" "The imminent flu disaster" etc etc etc. Then the list the "outbreaks" (usually one or two people) and the deaths (upto 96..woo hoo!)...I guess the general public is so ignorant of logic that they believe the hype, as obviously shown by the empty store shelves of anything with "anti-bacterial" in the product description.


----------



## SilverFox (May 2, 2009)

I have been following the discussion of this flu over on www.flutrackers.com . They seem to have a rather complete coverage of what is going on.

One of the resources I came across was the Flu Manual. I have been very impressed with the information presented in this manual and would suggest that anyone concerned about the flu take a look at it.

Tom


----------



## Sub_Umbra (May 2, 2009)

Cool site, thanks.


----------



## LEDninja (May 3, 2009)

Worker may have passed H1N1 to Alberta pigs

More poor little piggies.


----------



## StarHalo (May 3, 2009)

LEDninja said:


> More poor little piggies.



I heard this story on the radio earlier tonight and had to chuckle; this means millions of pigs have been embargoed and slaughtered in those less scientific countries, when it was *the pigs* who were most vulnerable to the flu all along. Yeesh. :shakehead


----------



## Egsise (May 3, 2009)

World population: over 6 billion.
Swineflu is a drop in the ocean, relax.


----------



## LuxLuthor (May 3, 2009)

Kill the pigs; save the cheerleader.


----------



## Egsise (May 3, 2009)

LuxLuthor said:


> Kill the pigs; save the cheerleader.


Kill the cheerleader, eat the flaslight, steal the pig.


----------



## TITAN1833 (May 3, 2009)

Pigs unite! and save your own bacon...RUN for the forest.


----------



## chmsam (May 3, 2009)

Panic? No. 

Try to avoid feeling like crap for a week and also passing it onto your family, friends, and co-workers? Yep.

CDC info is still good stuff to know.


----------



## TITAN1833 (May 3, 2009)

How strange! it now looks like the swineflu has taken a vacation or it has gone into stealth mode :thinking:

swineflu in decline


----------



## LuxLuthor (May 4, 2009)

It was always a story projected out from the initial reports of presenting patients who died were in their 20-30's. It also takes a few weeks once an episode is publicized to see how it will pan out and what testing will show. They don't get reliable tests from instant screen tests. 

If that worse scenario had panned out, and/or if there is still a random mutation making it more lethal, that is the risk that organizations are planning to protect from. It's a crap shoot every year, until the one year comes when a highly lethal strain develops. Being behind the 8-ball in that scenario would be catastrophic.

I'm glad to see the conservative reactions starting out...until we start seeing how it begins to play out. Then you can back off.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (May 4, 2009)

Well put, LL.

This has been an interesting thread to me. One or more people mentioned that many Japanese wear masks to protect *others* when they are sick. (It is my understanding that most of the masks seen being worn in news footage will not protect the *wearer* from flu) The idea of wearing a mask to protect others is a good one. It is both cheap and effective.

At first I thought the difference was all cultural but now I don't think so. While the Japanese are definately a more cohesive set I think there's more to it than that. Many in the West would wear masks when ill to protect others *if their leaders just told them it was a good idea.*

All recent politicians, no matter what their party or politics, are loathe to use their bully pulpit to educate their constituents *on any subject* whether it be health care or anything else, for that matter. We don't wear masks because *we haven't been told to.* That would be too simple. Increasingly, all solutions are top-down and must involve big budgets -- and the actions of someone far away. The actions of the citizenry are no longer even a consideration today.


----------



## LEDAdd1ct (May 17, 2009)

Something kind of freaky happened this evening. We had the local station on TV, and next thing I knew, my elementary school popped up on the screen, citing a case of swine flu/possible case of swine flu there. The school is 1.2 miles from me, and my friend's father was interviewed! Apparently, a NYC assistant principal died today from the swin flu as well. I know there isn't a serious risk (right now), but it is still a little un-nerving to see a report on a place where I spent eight years of my life.


----------



## gollum (May 18, 2009)

news story said today they closed 1000 schools in Japan...
so it isn't over just yet


----------



## LuxLuthor (May 18, 2009)

Well remember the other "red herring" aspect of this pandemic is the onset timing. This is not the time of year that you see Flu pandemics, so that has increased the 'freakout' factor. People have not been able to fit this "square-peg flu" into the round hole of their understanding.

Again, everyone is relieved that what seemed to be an initial presentation of strain killing 20-30 year olds has not panned out...despite the recent death in NY. God Bless his family.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (May 18, 2009)

I think the world's response has been interesting. If this flu had been more lethal (or becomes so in the fall) all of the accusations of over-reacting will have fallen by the wayside. Many will cry that not enough was done.

China's quarantine of travelers is telling, IMO. China was burnt by the perceptions of it's response to SARS and I think that played a big part in their decision making this time around.

While their response cost money and was inconvient for some, it may sitll be determined that their actions were prudent. After all, this flu came very close to circling the globe in a week. We have been lucky this time. I think that we're probably better off for this drill, if that's all it turns out to be.


----------



## chmsam (May 18, 2009)

Just kind of a re-cap of what this was all about from a disease control viewpoint. 

People tend to forget that flu viruses, just like cold viruses, mutate and that's why they are illnesses that people can catch over and over. It's just that they are not exactly the same strain year after year. Occasionally the strain is more virulent than others (more easily spread and more dangerous). That's why there was all the medical interest in this variation of the swine flu -- it fit many of the indicators of a flu like the one in the early 1900's that killed many. 

As always some responses are based on personal fears and some on the fears of a nation. A few responses have even actually made sense (pretty rare in the world today) but cultural and political methods of dealing with diseases vary greatly. Despite some really dumb reactions to this, fortunately the warmer weather in this half of the world will have less people concentrating indoors and that should help lessen the spread. The trick is to see if this outbreak (even if it is only an inconvenient disease) lasts into the fall of this year.

But as has been stated many times, if people would just cover their mouths when they sneeze or cough and wash their hands often, even a mild cold isn't as likely to be a concern let alone something more serious. Simple to do but a lot of people are just are too dumb or too rude to be bothered. Masks might help limit the spread but from what I have read about most masks it seems that they tend to be more effective if worn by people who are ill than as a preventive measure.


----------



## LEDAdd1ct (May 18, 2009)

Okay, I'll hold up the "I'm Stupid!" card, but I need some clarification:

What is it about the masks that prevents the spread of disease, but not protects the wearer?  <---there it is

Is it because the mask stops airborne germs from floating through the air, infecting others when the sick person coughs, whereas people who fail to wash their hands will still pick up the germs on their fingers?


----------



## Sub_Umbra (May 19, 2009)

Here's another one from the 'dumb question department': if someone gets the mild Swine Flu that's going around now and then it comes back much more deadly in the in the fall like the famous Spanish Flu did -- will those who've already had today's earlier, milder version have any additional protection from it than that part of the population who never got sick from the earlier version?


----------



## RA40 (May 19, 2009)

The Japan stuff seemed scary...we have family and traveling friends there. A call to our doc who is affiliated there and stateside is amused. He relayed it is yet another situation where the news causes over reaction and the media makes a scare situation from it. Japan just jumps headlong into over-reaction many times. They were supposedly screening American based flights for signs of the flu. He told us his wife went through the checkpoint in about 30 minutes almost as usual. 

In talking with my wife he stated a level # and said this flu is of lower incidence and severity than the "normal" flu we encounter here each year. Not that it isn't serious, just that in most normal life, the masses won't have to deal with it nor worry about some hideous situation. 

Keep in mind also that Japan has mass transit and as an airborne contracted illness, coughing, sneezing in a confined space the exposure level will be higher. That goes same for their usual cold season hence the usage of masks to prevent the spreading such illnesses. Most those showing more problematic symptoms are those with pre-existing health conditions and or weakened immune systems in most cases.

Just go about your daily life and not let the news hype pull you in.

Timely as one of the Tv stations showed Outbreak featuring Hoffman, Gooding and Russo.


----------



## LEDAdd1ct (May 19, 2009)

Sub_Umbra said:


> if someone gets the mild Swine Flu that's going around now and then it comes back much more deadly in the in the fall like the famous Spanish Flu did -- will those who've already had today's earlier, milder version have any additional protection from it than that part of the population who never got sick from the earlier version?



I have been wondering this all along as well...


?


----------



## chmsam (May 19, 2009)

LEDAdd1ct said:


> Okay, I'll hold up the "I'm Stupid!" card, but I need some clarification:
> 
> What is it about the masks that prevents the spread of disease, but not protects the wearer?  <---there it is
> 
> Is it because the mask stops airborne germs from floating through the air, infecting others when the sick person coughs, whereas people who fail to wash their hands will still pick up the germs on their fingers?



I'm no doctor but it's probably more due to most masks that people use do not meet the N95 standard. The masks most commonly available would limit the spread of illness from a sick person to some degree but not enough to count on them as a preventative measure. Contact is another. So you're mostly correct as I have seen it from some sources but this is a link from the CDC about properly used masks. H1N1 Flu Masks


----------



## chmsam (May 19, 2009)

Sub_Umbra said:


> Here's another one from the 'dumb question department': if someone gets the mild Swine Flu that's going around now and then it comes back much more deadly in the in the fall like the famous Spanish Flu did -- will those who've already had today's earlier, milder version have any additional protection from it than that part of the population who never got sick from the earlier version?



Again, I'm not a doctor but as I see it only if it is significantly similar to the strain they catch now. If the flu strain mutates then probably the answer is no. That's why colds and flu viruses are caught so often -- they're not the same strain from bout to bout of the illness and the antibodies you build up no longer work for the mutated strain.


----------



## chmsam (May 19, 2009)

RA40 said:


> Keep in mind also that Japan has mass transit and as an airborne contracted illness, coughing, sneezing in a confined space the exposure level will be higher. That goes same for their usual cold season hence the usage of masks to prevent the spreading such illnesses. Most those showing more problematic symptoms are those with pre-existing health conditions and or weakened immune systems in most cases.
> 
> Just go about your daily life and not let the news hype pull you in.


Correct on the amount of extreme close contact being culturally different in Japan but they are also more diligent in the way they treat interaction with others while they are sick or likely to be contagious. Also as has been said with the warmer weather coming there will be fewer reasons for people to congregate in groups indoors and that makes spreading flu like diseases harder just because they are not breathing the same air over and over. 

As for it being hype, again without panicking, why not simply avoid getting sick in the first place? It's not fully known what underlying or preexisting conditions make it even more dangerous except for the obvious ones like immune deficiencies, respiratory conditions, etc. So far the assistant principal in NYC who died supposedly only had gout but even that's not confirmed and of course there might have been something else going on.

I freely admit that there is an awful lot I do not know about diseases like this but common sense and a little precaution are useful in avoiding most things that can make you sick. Freaking out does little good but a bit more caution could be a good idea. If more people just followed the CDC suggestions we'd all have fewer colds and flu illnesses.


----------



## nekomane (May 19, 2009)

Kind of funny reading how some people consider the Japanese so polite that they are worrying about spreading any disease to others, when in fact they are just looking after themselves (nothing wrong with that BTW).

Wearing a mask, even in public is very common in Japan. Though few know of the N95 standard, you can pick from a variety of masks in different sizes and for different applications. People wear them while dusting the house or moving, and to keep out pollen during the hay fever season. The masked kids heading for their entrance exams have become a seasonal feature in February and March. No kid (nor the parents who have shelled out a fortune for tutoring and out of school classes) wants to jeapordize all the effort just because the sneezing, coughing kid (who was obviously meant to fail) sat next to him or her.

As RA40 has pointed out above, commuting space is much more confined than in the US, and there are many people in Japan (again contrary to what some of you may think) who do not know their basic manners also. Others don't want to be _seen_ inconsiderate without wearing a mask when they are sick, but in actuallity should be staying home instead of trying to impress employers/teachers/parents how committed they are to their jobs/studies.

The health agencies are blowing this way out of proportion just to cover their backs. After a national outrage with the handling of HIV tainted blood products which infected many patients suffering from hemophilia, no one wants to be held responsible.
There is a saying in Japan, `Drink the medicine if it's available` meaning that you might as well take any precaution if it can be easily done. Not the same, but kind of like 'Better safe than sorry' in English.

As for the media, especially TV, they will jump on anything sensational. You think the US media is bad, well.. They even looked relieved when after the repeated 'false alarms', some students and a teacher who had returned from a school trip to Canada were finally diagnosed with the real thing. Hah, now that the economy has fallen behind, the only way to gain world stage status is by being included in the world flu club.

It was hilarious how many of the reporters greeting the bewildered travelers returning to the airports from trips to the US or Mexico were wearing masks. Just like the reporters wearing flack jackets in Iraq or Afghanistan, taking them off once the red light blinked off.

There were articles in the papers which pointed out that past seasonal flus have proven to be far deadlier than the current H1N1 strain, but who reads a tiny article tucked in the science section when the front page is screaming like it's the end of the world?

When the WHO raised the alert level to 5 and California declared a state of emergency, there was something close to panic in Japan. And this was when there were no confirmed cases in the country. In reality the alarm levels only indicate the spread of the disease, not the severity of it, and Arnie's decision was to free up resources and be prepared.

OK, I've been overly cynical. A lot of this was tongue in cheek.
Imagine if the Mexican government didn't over estimate the death toll and failed to report it to the WHO. Things could have been worse. I _am_ worried about the virus mutating into something more dangerous or unpredictable too. This flu is something to be taken seriously but in a calm matter.

Is TEOTWAWKI near? No, but better stock up on those N95s :tinfoil:


----------



## jtr1962 (May 19, 2009)

I was reading that even in a worst-case scenario like the 1918 Spanish flu only about 30% actually contracted the flu, and of those about 2.5% died. And remember this was with 1918 standards of medicine and hygiene. Doubtless nowadays those numbers would be even lower. So even if this becomes a full scale pandemic situation similar to that of 1918, your chances of actually dying from it are well under 1%. Of course, unfortunately the clustering of fatalities made things seem worse at a local level then it really was. For example, my father's mother lost her mother and all of her siblings except her brother in the 1918 pandemic.

The best way to deal with any epidemic is of course to avoid becoming infected, and if you do, avoid infecting others. Not rocket science, yet I continue to be amazed at how many don't do a simple basic thing like washing their hands before touching food. And many employers don't help matters either by not giving people paid sick leave (many have no choice but to come to work sick if they face the prospect of losing a day's pay), or even worse automatically firing people who fail to show up for their shift (quite a few of my previous employers did that). In the end the few days pay an employer might pay a sick worker for staying home will cost less than the lost productivity if your entire staff becomes ill, or even worse some key people die.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (May 20, 2009)

> ...I was reading that even in a worst-case scenario like the 1918 Spanish flu only about 30% actually contracted the flu, and of those about 2.5% died. And remember this was with 1918 standards of medicine and hygiene. Doubtless nowadays those numbers would be even lower...


*Doubtless* is a pretty strong word when one considers the world's continuing reaction to this event. 

While we may know more about medicine now that we did in 1918 the States, for example, have seen a steady decline in the numbers of hospitals (and therefore emergency rooms) over the last few decades even as our population has continued to grow. Also, it took a while for the JIT (Just In Time) distribution model to be accepted by the medical community but they are *fully* on board now. That means that at the same time that we have less hospitals and emergency rooms than we did just a few decades ago each of those sites has a dramatically smaller stock of the vital supplies that they need to function both in an emergency and on a daily basis. Even advances in health care are contingent on having the supplies on hand to carry them out in the real world. In this regard medicine has greatly slipped backwards in the last fifty years. Forty years ago hospitals routinely stocked three months worth of antibiotics -- today they each stock enough for only a week or two. 

Even though antibiotics are not on the front line against Swine flu they would be very important in a pandemic for combatting things like post-flu pneumonias -- and remember these events create scenarios where production, transportation and distribution systems tend to fall apart. We may have to just play the hand that we've got. These issues are all linked together. It matters not what medicine knows how to do if it systemically lacks the foresight to provide the supplies it needs to function when the chips are down -- and the medical response to recent emergencies would indicate that that is pretty much where they're at. 

Whatever the cause, any serious disruption of the JIT distribution system will likely not only result in an inability of medicine to make a dent in treating those directly sickened/injured by that event. It also means that supplies stocked to provide care for the normal, everyday treatments that hospitals provide would probably be gone *in less than one week.* 

One would also think it reasonable that organizations like the CDC might represent what modern medicine is capable of and thus dismiss the Swine flu as harmless if there were no doubts. On the contrary the CDC is very concerned about the *anomalies* of this event like why is it spreading out of flu season and why does it seem to strike hardest at younger, stronger segments of the populations -- the same behavior as other flus that have ended up *very deadly.* Modern medicine would seem to have it's doubts.

Then there is the transportation issue which I briught up earlier. For me there is no doubt that the threat presented by our current transportation system which allows us to travel from any major city on earth to any other major city on earth in ~24 hours more than overshadows any advances medicine may have made in the treatment of pandemics in the last 90 years. We may actually have a better idea of how to treat them, for what it's worth, but we are far less capable of containing them.

It is also true that the earth's population has grown quite a bit in the last 90 years and much of the world is still a pretty cruddy place. I suspect that a non-Western-centric view of world health care would find *even more people who either have very poor health care or none at all* when compared to the health care demographics of the world in 1920. At least a billion people even lack a supply of clean drinking water. In any modern pandemic many will die quietly with no film at eleven.

Doubtless is too strong a word.


----------



## Empath (May 29, 2009)

I thought this article on "Swine Flu Myths" was a helpful read.


----------



## LA OZ (May 29, 2009)

This is a complete media beat up. There are so many casualty from other Flu but you hardly hear about it as it was old news. If it sells it will be told in the media. So far there are much less death from Swine Flu than any other Flu. I ask for calmness .


----------



## chmsam (May 29, 2009)

LA OZ said:


> This is a complete media beat up. There are so many casualty from other Flu but you hardly hear about it as it was old news. If it sells it will be told in the media. So far there are much less death from Swine Flu than any other Flu. I ask for calmness .



Calmness yes, but no, it is not totally hype. Too many people stand at one extreme or the other and nowhere in between. The media will definitely pick up on a hot topic but don't think this is nothing more than something like a common cold. The _potential_ of it becoming a difficult to treat strain is there, it is becoming easily transmitted, and that is a reason for the _medical_ community to worry. While it might not kill the number of people that died during the early 1900's the number of cases and the amount of time lost could be significant. And besides, who wants to catch any virus when it is relatively easy to avoid them?


----------



## LEDninja (May 29, 2009)

1st we can not visit Mexico. (All the Canadian air carriers stopped flying there)
Now we can not go on cruises. (No more Love Boat - well, that show has been cancelled long ago)

"A cruise ship carrying 2,000 passengers has been ordered to stay at sea off the coast of Australia after three crew tested positive for swine flu."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8071292.stm


----------



## RA40 (May 30, 2009)

Kind of an aside. We have relatives in Japan and the mask thing is totally barren there. Wife asked me to get some masks for them. I typed in the usual N95 and just about every listing is attached with "Swine flu", CDC...blah-blah. I stopped by a local supplier and he told me that the masks I was interested in were 8 weeks out. "Swine flu" has made these things just fly out the doors. 

I told the wife I'll bring the cartridge respirator with me.  Myabe even the Tyvek Iso Clean suit. 

http://www2.dupont.com/NOWApp/DPPRequestGateway/0/7/?command=VCProductFamilyIntro&prod=1016 

a mask pic:
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images...41183319098/Swine-flu-face-masks-A-wo-011.jpg


----------



## Vinniec5 (May 30, 2009)

RA40 try Lab Safety Supply http://www.labsafety.com/search/n95/ Professional place and stocks everything from an aspirin to a portable NBC Lab


----------



## RA40 (May 30, 2009)

THANKS! My two local suppliers ceased carrying a particular cartridge respirator and this place stocks the supplies I need.


----------



## Vinniec5 (May 30, 2009)

Your welcome!! Enjoy your trip and be safe


----------



## fieldops (May 31, 2009)

Sub_Umbra said:


> *Doubtless* is a pretty strong word when one considers the world's continuing reaction to this event.



I think Sub has put it pretty much on target. The just in time model will be a killer in a deadly pandemic. More people with less of everything available to help. Not good. 

The transportation issue is a major one. Remember that all the 1918 pandemic deaths happened with no transcontinental airlines. Even though this current outbreak is not severe yet, look how fast it spread. Frightening. 

One of the biggest issues I have right now is that politics has intervened in this outbreak. The WHO freely admits that we meet the criteria right now for a level 6 pandemic. Unfortunately many countries approached the WHO and complained to them. They have decided to re-write the criteria on level 6 pandemics to include severity. I believe that this is a mistake. The whole purpose of the level 6 rating was to set global action plans in motion. If, heaven forbid, this thing comes back severely in the fall, they will have a lot to answer for. Plans that could save lives would not have been activated. I sincerely hope, as most do here, that this thing stays mild through its duration.

I also heartily agree that personal sanitary habits are crucial. If a larger percentage would just observe basic precautions, many illnesses, not just flu could be avoided.


----------



## Wits' End (Jun 2, 2009)

*Re: WhineFlu cases*

Some people are not taking this seriously. With all my children this has been an occasional problem, not the constant concern in the article.
New Strain Of Whine Flu Deemed "Unstoppable" 



> Researchers say parents are key to helping keep the spread of the disease in check, noting that greater exposure in daycare settings and play groups is leading to earlier onset of whine flu - often long before parents have had the time to build up the necessary antibodies to combat the illness. And without those antibodies, parents are unable to cure the mild cases of whine flu, which just makes the illness come on even stronger and that much more resistant to any treatment methods.
> In a few isolated incidents, prolonged exposure to this strain of whine flu has even led to cases of mad mom disease.



Did I misread the subject here


----------



## binky (Jun 2, 2009)

Speaking of not taking it seriously, here's what I am confronted with in the South Shore area of Boston:

1. Report of 2 children sick with H1N1 at my children's school. We received an email from the school yesterday and notification that the cafeteria is closed. Kids need to be sent in with lunch. (This is a private/independent school.)

2. According to the school nurse, about 28 kids out sick from that school with fever & reporting flu-like symptoms.

3. The mom of one of the children called my wife today. She had taken her daughter to the doctor who said "She has flu symptoms. Give her rest." The mom asked about H1N1 testing and the doctor said "We're no longer testing for that." The mom insisted she wanted the test done, so 10 minutes later she was staring at a positive test result for H1N1 that the doctor wasn't even going to test for.

*Soooo.....* What the heck is a prudent individual to do with that situation??? 

The CDC reports here on the number of reported cases, but I have a reliable report that the data gathering is entirely worthless.

Do with that what you will, folks. I kinda always thought things were handled better. I guess I've been very naive.


----------



## RA40 (Jun 2, 2009)

Let's also bear in mind that applying any type of seasonal illness will make these charts scary to view. Like the cold and flu seasons, if one's immune system is compromised, there will be issues. Otherwise, most will pass through this none for the worse. _Each year many will die from the seasonal flu and underlying health conditions that have severely compromise the immune system. _

Swine Flu death:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2009/06/la-reports-first-swine-flu-death.html


When the wife was teaching, she'd witness whole classrooms spreading some cold or such. She pushed for good hygiene practices so few in her classrooms caught colds-flu. The kids knew not to share toys, put things in their mouth or fingers in nose...blah-blah. If a child came to school sick, they were refused entrance. 

As adults, it isn't much different. Containment, if someone is sick of any sort, stay home. Instead we go to work, let our kids go out...then we have a slew of illnesses that get passed around. Poor exposure control for sure. How many in a household when one becomes sick, every family member also comes down with it? Countless poor hygiene habits increase the likelihood of exposure and yet much is easily done to reduce the exposure to passing these illnesses around. 

I found of particularly poor taste for one of the TV channels to broadcast Outbreak some days back.:thumbsdow Much the same when we were in Japan and the volcano was venting. The local network broadcast Japan Sinking. (Which is a movie about volcanos and earthquakes devastating Japan.)


----------



## [email protected] (Jun 2, 2009)

3 confirmed cases in my school. This morning I had a sore throat and fever...


----------



## SilentK (Jun 2, 2009)

[email protected] said:


> 3 confirmed cases in my school. This morning I had a sore throat and fever...



Congradulations. When i first heard of the swine flu, i thought to myself, oh no, someones gonna pull a rainbow six here. No one get vacinated! Lol.


----------



## Vinniec5 (Jun 3, 2009)

2 more deaths in NYC total up to 7 . with only 114 comfirmed case in NJ but that number and for that matter the total in the US is deceiving because they est that only 1-in-20 cases are being tested to confirm it. Typical political BS to keep the panic down to the low-sweat stage. Reports of the WHO being pressured to keep the alert from being raised to level 6 which they might do anyway. But a few countries are moaning about tourism and cash.Can you guess which major east coast city was the first to tell everyone its nothing just go spend money? I'm not saying panic but it never hurts to CYA


----------



## Vinniec5 (Jun 3, 2009)

CNN announced today that the administration wants 2billion for H1N1 pandemic preparedness but says its only for contingencies no need to worry.


----------



## binky (Jun 3, 2009)

Vinniec5 said:


> the total in the US is deceiving because they est that only 1-in-20 cases are being tested to confirm it.



Yeah, that's what I was saying the mom reported about her experience at the doctor's. Actually, even fewer than 1/20. In the case of my kid's school it is 1/30 so far. Yet we're told at the CDC site they're watching closely ...

From CDC site:


> Novel influenza A (H1N1) activity is now being detected through CDC’s routine influenza surveillance systems and reported weekly in FluView. CDC tracks U.S. influenza activity through multiple systems across five categories.



Okay. Right. It's being tracked. And they're not recognizing that for data collection if the data in is garbage then the results are garbage. The CDC must know that, so there must be some literally obscene motivation to pretend that the tally holds any validity at all. That's the only way I can make sense of the actions, anyway.

I have a friend who simply yanked their kids from the school for the rest of the year. They have a troubling medical reason to do so, but I'm pretty angry about the situation. If the swine flu is not so bad to have, then tell me and I'll just let it run through my family as it obviously will. Then I'll have some resistance to it when it comes back even nastier in the Fall. If it is more dangerous than regular flu then darnit let's actually do something sensible about it. Either way let's act with reason and from some semblance of valid information.


----------



## Vinniec5 (Jun 3, 2009)

The US already has more confirmed cases than Mexico but hasen't really said/done much for the public. Atleast as far as I've seen. Mexico atleast handed out masks to its population and tried to keep person-to-person contact down some by closing schools/events. No surprise in the NJ/NY area that cases are up after Memorial Day weekend and everyone went to the shore and beaches in NY/NJ. We only have 114 cases confirmed but over 100 kids in jersey city are out sick in one school yesterday alone. I'm very lucky I rarely get sick (no colds/flu in 6 yrs) and never had any of the childhood diseases as a kid but not everyone is that lucky. It really burns me that politics and money drive over the health of the population


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Jun 3, 2009)

I just want to mention something that may address the concerns of those posters who have commented that very few of those who are symptomatic are actually being tested for Swine Flu.

I'm not trying to distort the threat (one way or the other) that Swine Flu poses. I am also not advocating or criticizing actions that the government has or has not taken. 

I do think that it is important to remember that time *does* march on -- even medicine marches on.  Things change. Smallpox was not defeated by immunizing everyone on earth. It was ultimately beaten by using a completely different strategy -- that of running down *the contacts* of victims and immunizing *them.* My point is that this was a counter-intuitive approach which evolved over time *and it worked.* It was controversial.

While I'm rarely one to say, "the government knows what it is doing," it is true that advances are steadily made and that there are tools out there that haven't gotten much publicity. Some of them didn't even exist a year ago. It *may* be reasonable to conclude that the importance of what we traditionally expect may be diminished somewhat by advances that we are unaware of.

Let me give a couple of examples. They are a little lame but still worthy of mention IMO.

In a *news article* last year it was revealed that Google is quantifying search terms that match the set of flu symptoms by location and is making the data available in a timely manner to the CDC for close to real time analysis. It is an interesting, creative and cheap way to use a resource we already have. It's but one example of a group of new tools that have never existed before.

Anyone may view the Google Flu Trends data by going *here.*

Some airports have begun scanning passengers for fevers as they walk through the terminal -- *article here.* The implementation is not perfect but the concept holds promise and the technology will probably improve with time.

A company called Biorics has developed a device that can reportedly enable airport security to tell whether someone is carrying a pandemic virus *by the sound of their cough.*

I'm not trying to imply that we have nothing to worry about from the flu (or Big Brother for that matter) because of this type of whiz-bang technology but I do think it's important to realize that new tools and approaches may make it look like little is being done if we concentrate on the more traditional methods exclusively. Going back to my initial example, immunization was still used against Smallpox but it's efficacy evolved downward to a point where it was only used in the end game.


----------



## RA40 (Jun 7, 2009)

This is a new project from Stanford University that studies the influenza virus. 

Project 2861
http://fah-web.stanford.edu/cgi-bin/fahproject?p=2681



> These projects study how influenza virus recognizes and infects cells. We are developing new simulation methods to better understand these processes.



We've talked a lot about how serious Swine Flu is...here is an opportunity for me to encourage members here to be part of the CPF Folding @ Home research by running their simulation projects. What we put in today will benefit others for generations to come. The more involved, the faster we find solutions for these health issues.  

The CPF [email protected] thread:

http://candlepowerforums.com/vb/showthread.php?t=226020


----------



## jtr1962 (Jun 11, 2009)

WHO declares swine flu pandemic

While so far the mortality rate is less than even most normal seasonal flus, this strain seems very contagious. A telephone survey indicated about 7% of New York City residents reported flu-like symptoms in May. I think that may have factored into the decision. I'm glad WHO didn't let economic pressures prevent them from doing what IMO needed to be done.

Now let's hope it doesn't mutate into something really bad.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Jun 11, 2009)

Interesting article.


> ...In May, several countries urged WHO not to declare a pandemic, fearing it would cause social and economic turmoil.
> 
> "This is WHO finally catching up with the facts," said Michael Osterholm, a flu expert at the University of Minnesota who has advised the U.S. government on pandemic preparations...


----------



## Vinniec5 (Jun 25, 2009)

*US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million *

*By MIKE STOBBE*
, 
*AP*
posted: *1 HOUR 47 MINUTES AGO*
ATLANTA -Swine flu has infected as many as 1 million Americans, U.S. health officials said Thursday, adding that 6 percent or more of some urban populations are infected. The estimate voiced by a government flu scientist Thursday was no surprise to the experts who have been closely watching the virus.


"We knew diagnosed cases were just the tip of the iceberg," said Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University infectious diseases expert who was in Atlanta for the meeting of a vaccine advisory panel.
Lyn Finelli, a flu surveillance official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, made the 1 million estimate in a presentation to the vaccine panel. The number is from mathematical modeling, based on surveys by health officials.
Regular seasonal flu sickens anywhere from 15 million to 60 million Americans each year.
The United States has roughly half the world's swine flu cases, with nearly 28,000 reported to the CDC so far. The U.S. count includes 3,065 hospitalizations and 127 deaths.
The percentage of cases hospitalized has been growing, but that may be due to closer scrutiny of very sick patients. It takes about three days from the time symptoms appear to hospitalization, Finelli said, and the average hospital stay has been three days.
Other health problems have been a factor in most cases: About one in three of the hospitalized cases had asthma, 16 percent diabetes, 12 percent have immune system problems and 11 percent chronic heart disease.
The numbers again highlight how the young seem to be particularly at risk of catching the new virus. But data also show that the flu has been more dangerous to adults who catch it.
The average age of swine flu patients is 12, the average age for hospitalized patients is 20, and for people who died, it was 37. It seems to be deadliest to people 65 and older, with deaths in more than 2 percent of elderly people infected, Finelli said.
Also at the meeting, CDC officials made projections about flu vaccines expected to be available to protect against both seasonal and swine flu this fall.
More than 25 million doses of seasonal flu vaccine should be available by early September, CDC officials and vaccine manufacturers said.
The same five manufacturers that make the seasonal vaccine are producing swine flu vaccine as well. As many as 60 million doses of vaccine to protect against the new virus could be ready by September, said Robin Robinson, an official with the federal agency that oversees vaccine manufacture and distribution. That prediction seemed a bit optimistic, others at the meeting said.
The vaccinations might be given as two shots, spaced 21 days apart. But the vaccine has to be tested before it's made available to the public.

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press.
2009-06-25 18:43:01


----------



## LuxLuthor (Jul 15, 2009)

Interesting to see increasing concerns and now comparisons to devastating 1918 Flu pandemic.

Reuters article reporting it is unstoppable.

Just an FYI


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Jul 15, 2009)

I've also been watching *the swelling backlash to Mandatory Vaccination.*


----------



## Vinniec5 (Jul 29, 2009)

CNN reported today the the Military has put plans in place to enforce Quarantines if/when needed ( Still no need to worry) and I heard (7) students working for members of Congress have been Quarantined with Swine Flu.


----------



## SFG2Lman (Jul 29, 2009)

we've had a few cases where i am stationed, they send them home for 2 days and then they are right back at work...everyone *should* have been vaccinated for this in like the third grade, its not a new strain, nor is it dangerous unless you have other prevailing medical issues. Wash your hands and don't let people sneeze on you, keep your vitamin C up and really, don't freak out cuz its just a strain of the flu the news "discovered" on a slow day and ran with it...H1N1 is swine and H1N5 is bird...there's a million new strains of the flu virus every year, thats why those who get flu shots need a new one every year. Driving your car is still WAY more deadly than anything else, yet people don't seem to freak out about that. Being stuck by lightning and dying is more likely than dying from the swine flu, and you'll have the antibodies to fight it next time


----------



## strinq (Jul 29, 2009)

Just to share, my university was just closed (to students) for a week due to sudden cases of the flu (4 confirmed cases i think and a whole lot of suspected ones).


----------



## chmsam (Jul 29, 2009)

SFG2Lman said:


> ...everyone *should* have been vaccinated for this in like the third grade, its not a new strain...



Well, not quite. It is very similar to other strains but colds and flu viruses mutate easily and that is why you can catch them more often that other diseases. A vaccination for one flu virus does not protect you from others and the shots you got years ago will not be of any use. This is not like getting a polio or measles vaccination.

Not a life threatening thing for most people but who wants to feel wretched for a week anyway? Biggest thing is if people would only stay home on their own when they felt sick and not go out or to work and spread stuff around. Unfortunately most people are pretty much idiots when it comes to even mild communicable diseases.


----------



## SFG2Lman (Jul 29, 2009)

chmsam said:


> most people are pretty much idiots.


 

I agree...oh wait thats taking it out of context huh?


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Jul 30, 2009)

SFG2Lman said:


> ...really, don't freak out cuz its just a strain of the flu the news "discovered" on a slow day and ran with it...


 Watching less news and reading more from the CDC and WHO might cause your opinion to change about what's keeping this flu in the news...or maybe not.


----------



## SFG2Lman (Jul 30, 2009)

well 2 of my really good buddies were swine flu cases 0 and 1 where I work, they didn't seem ecstatic about it, they looked a little bleary eyed and such but it only last about 3 days and they were done with it...i did not happen to catch it, but they said its just like having the regular flu, just with a different name


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Jul 30, 2009)

SFG2Lman said:


> well 2 of my really good buddies were swine flu cases 0 and 1 where I work, they didn't seem ecstatic about it, they looked a little bleary eyed and such but it only last about 3 days and they were done with it...i did not happen to catch it, but they said its just like having the regular flu, just with a different name


A little research into the deadly Spanish Flu of the early 20th century will yield *many* similar stories -- about a relatively mild flu that came and went in the summer without many fatalities -- and then came back during the next flu season *and killed tens of millions.* 

So about your two good buds that got sick and there wasn't much to it: did either of them find it odd that they even came down with any flu at all *so far outside of the flu season?* Did that send up any flags to them? For those who pay attention to things like that, it is alarming -- just as it was with the Spanish Flu early in the 20th century. 

Those who think nothing of flu spreading so far out of season will likely fail to contemplate what havoc the same virus -- or a mutated virus -- might raise during the next *actual* flu season (again, like the Spanish Flu did 90 years ago) when the weather is colder and folks are more confined indoors and school is in session. Try to remember that what is happening now in the Northern hemisphere is happening during a season in which *normal* flu viri are unable to even spread through human populations. 

That is newsworthy.


----------



## SFG2Lman (Jul 31, 2009)

excellent point i had not thought of it in that manner, that must be why they are working so hard and fast on the vaccination, they must want it BEFORE flu season. And now that you mention, before my friend went in to get tested he said "Yeah...so I got a cold in JULY! what the hell is this?" I didn't even think about it till you said something, interesting.


----------



## chmsam (Aug 1, 2009)

Could be a wee bit o' a problem lads & lasses since at this point at least to the best of my knowledge there are no longer any facilities within the US that can manufacture a vaccine on that scale (hundreds of thousands if not millions of doses) that are in operation. Which country do we want to trust to produce a viable and high enough quality H1N1 vaccine and in a hurry? 

"Gee, let's outsource some more. What could possibly be the problem with that?" H1N1 is one thing, but how about a real bio hazard threat popping up?


----------



## LuxLuthor (Aug 2, 2009)

In this one case, it is not a matter of outsourcing. Rather it is a matter of lawyers, and failure of the federal government to do any meaningful tort reform. Companies with "legal exposure" in the USA have zero interest in making a vaccine without protection from lawsuits.


----------



## chmsam (Aug 2, 2009)

Well, this is going a bit OT but it's a combination of effects. End result is there is a lag time in development and who knows where the vaccine will come from. In the meanwhile, just use common sense and think about dope slapping people who can't keep their snot and sneezes to themselves.


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Aug 3, 2009)

This is interesting. Sounds like it could be solved with the stroke of a pen...the right pen. Note that in any mandatory forced innoculation no citizen will be able to sue the Fed for damages resulting from any bad vaccine *forced into them.* If the Fed is indemnified why would they stop there?


----------



## Wits' End (Aug 19, 2009)

Interesting light news on disease research.

*Science ponders 'zombie attack'*



> *If zombies actually existed, an attack by them would lead to the collapse of civilisation unless dealt with quickly and aggressively.*





> In some respects, a zombie "plague" resembles a lethal, rapidly spreading infection. The researchers say the exercise could help scientists model the spread of unfamiliar diseases through human populations.


I found a link to the paper, haven't read the whole thing
http://www.mathstat.uottawa.ca/~rsmith/Zombies.pdf


> Abstract
> Zombies are a popular figure in pop culture/entertainment and they are usually
> portrayed as being brought about through an outbreak or epidemic. Consequently,
> we model a zombie attack, using biological assumptions based on popular zombie
> ...


----------



## LightWalker (Aug 20, 2009)

I think we should be even more concerned about the vaccine.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDR-UJYms6w


----------



## Sub_Umbra (Aug 21, 2009)

Here is an interesting article I just ran across:

*KPC: The Other Potential Pandemic--And We're Completely Ignoring It*

The gist of it is that in flu pandemics many are weakened by the flu but actually killed off by bacterial infections that come along later. The author makes the point that there is a new bacteria, *Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC),* waiting in the wings and it will be very hard to treat.


----------

