Balloon Wars 2023!!!

[PhotonWrangler]

Well this escalated quickly.

 

[chillinn]

Tolerant liberal? Next, you'll be telling us the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny actually exist.

Definition of LIBERAL

of, relating to, or based on the liberal arts; of or befitting a man of free birth; marked by generosity : openhanded… See the full definition

www.merriam-webster.com

 

[bykfixer]

Tolerant liberal? Next, you'll be telling us the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny actually exist.

I guess you hadn't heard yet....

Uncle Sam IS the easter bunny, and the tooth fairy and santa clause and.....

 

[Olumin]

Don't get jebaited on the Internetz fellas.

 

[Poppy]

Didn't we just double our presence in Guam, and the Philippines?
China had to react. So they sent a big visible balloon over our skies. They have satellites, some are spying. We have three times as many.

One of the explanations I heard of why they waited to shoot it down was for it to have a softer landing in the water, and maybe it wouldn't break up as much, so we could gather more info about the tech they have.

 

[Olumin]

The last thing China will do is project hard power since their economy depends on mostly exports & its not been doing too well lately anyway. Countries (especially the west) cutting ties with them + potential sanctions would collapse the CCP. Luckily for them other countries economies depend just as much on them, so not much will happen for now. If the CCP collapses it will be from inside (as usual for china), so I dont think we will have to worry about a war with china as its not in their best interest. I predict that they will keep strengthening their grip on their people & that they will become increasingly more bold internationally, as has already proven true in past years. They are afraid of their own people, not the US.

 

[chillinn]

was for it to have a softer landing in the water

If so, and if that is remotely rational, the deflated balloon must have been expected to slow it down. Surface tension is a function of kinetic energy and surface area. Just prior to impact, its kinetic energy would be one half its mass times the square of its velocity. At impact, all that kinetic energy is transferred to itself and to the water. The part that hits first effectively stops while what's above it keeps moving downwards, compressing it. Its said that falling into water from a great height is like hitting concrete. That's because of its surface tension. But a lot depends on the probe's shape, whether boxy and solid or skeletal beams. I really hope they show what's found, if it is found.

 

[Stress_Test]

Didn't we just double our presence in Guam, and the Philippines?
China had to react. So they sent a big visible balloon over our skies. They have satellites, some are spying. We have three times as many.

One of the explanations I heard of why they waited to shoot it down was for it to have a softer landing in the water, and maybe it wouldn't break up as much, so we could gather more info about the tech they have.

More like the U.S. had to react to what China was doing (fortifying more tiny islands and turning them into fortresses in area where the waters/airways are... somewhat disputed I guess).

So we've been ramping up our preparedness in that region from what I've read. Recently there was a big joint exercise with US Marines and the Japanese military. Japan is probably getting nervous, being right on the doorstep so to speak.

The water landing to gather up more intact pieces, I could believe. But like I mentioned earlier, I doubt we'll ever really know the truth. Of course, Congress Critters and those running for office are going to be huffing and puffing and throwing blame etc. Even if they've been briefed on exactly how everything went down and there IS no blame, they'll still take advantage of the situation because the info will be classified and can't be used as a counter-argument in public/press.

Happened to Carter(?) I think when he cancelled the B1-B bomber, because he knew the F-117 stealth was being developed and the B1-B was going to be obsolete due to that, and Russian radar capability. But Reagan hammered him in the press on being weak on the defense issue and killing jobs too. Carter couldn't very well come out in public that the U.S. was working on an "above top-secret" stealth aircraft. Oh WAIT he DID!! Trying to save his own chances for re-election he actually released a statement about the stealth WAY before anyone outside the program should've even known about it. (I read all this in a book about the Skunk Works by Ben Rich, who was in charge at the time and ramrodded the F-117 development once he realized the potential of stealth.)

Similar to how Obama immediately went public with news of the Bin Laden raid and thus compromised chances of our further exploiting the intel we gathered from Bin Laden's compound; but Obama wanted the political approval points boost with the public that he knew would result from the announcement.

ALL politicians do this crap and it doesn't make a damn bit of difference what party they're in.

 

[Poppy]

More like the U.S. had to react to what China was doing (fortifying more tiny islands and turning them into fortresses in area where the waters/airways are... somewhat disputed I guess).

@Stress_Test , I agree. With Russia, and I think China touting that they now have hypersonic missiles, which makes them virtually impossible to shoot down, I suppose that makes our aircraft carriers somewhat obsolete. Therefore it is imperative for us to have aircraft strategically land-based.

Regarding the balloon, I wonder if we could have used a blimp to bump it off course, and or tow it somewhere.

EDIT: a quick google search shows that a blimp can only reach about 9,000 feet, whereas the "weather balloon" was at about 65,000 feet.

 

[pnwoutdoors]

I still can't believe we let it fly basically across the entire US before we took it out. The talk is they didn't want to hurt anybody on the ground. Christ it went over rural Montana!

Yup. Waited until it covered all the territory the originators wanted it to. At which point, once it had reached the ocean, POTUS said he'd "take care of it." Well, that's not taking care of the problem, nor halting the "take."

Far worse: showed we're pantywaists when it comes to protection of our own. The lesson has been learned by those who sought the answer to that question. The lesson apparently won't ever get learned by those we, here, need to learn it.

Same swamp gas, different day.

 

[Jean-Luc Descarte]

And it only took the USAF half a week to do a job a presumed superpower with a military budget bigger than most countries' annual revenues would be expected to perform in 30 minutes. Says a lot about the country's air defense, doesn't it?

 

[idleprocess]

@Stress_Test , I agree. With Russia, and I think China touting that they now have hypersonic missiles, which makes them virtually impossible to shoot down, I suppose that makes our aircraft carriers somewhat obsolete. Therefore it is imperative for us to have aircraft strategically land-based.

The aircraft carrier's value as a strategic weapon against peer adversaries during total war peaked in WWII. The advent of anti-ship missiles and the ability to accurately target surface combatants over the horizon changed the design and tactics of surface combatants more in 20 years than the prior century.

Post-WWII the Soviets came to the conclusion they could not afford a blue water navy to counter the USN and NATO thus developed a more affordable asymmetric sea denial strategy. Dozens - even hundreds - of cruise missiles are cheaper than fielding a competing carrier battle group. And if you're the Soviets your next line of defense should your Backfires, Slavas and Kirovs fail to the do the job - or an invited NATO carrier battle group show up in an unexpected quarter - would be to ripple fire nuclear cruise missiles at it.

Hypersonic missiles may well prove difficult to hard-kill intercept, however they do have at least two flaws: they generate an unavoidable immense heat signature and they're quite expensive relative to merely supersonic missiles.

Ergo while carriers remain useful military assets, they're becoming tools of limited-war power projection.

 

[Stress_Test]

And it only took the USAF half a week to do a job a presumed superpower with a military budget bigger than most countries' annual revenues would be expected to perform in 30 minutes. Says a lot about the country's air defense, doesn't it?

Right or wrong, the balloon was not deemed an urgent threat, so there was no immediate use of force to stop the overflight. I'd guess that we gained more by counter-observation of the balloon in action (electronic signals interpretation/interception), rather than if we'd shot it into the Pacific right off. We knew it was coming far in advance. Anything sensitive was rolled into hangers or covered.

Sensitive projects monitor positions of satellites anyway to make sure they're not out in view during a sat overflight. And the existing infrastructure (missile silos) have already been well-photographed by existing Russian (if not Chinese) satellites by this point. I can't see there was much anything to gain from air-to-ground surveillance by this balloon.

Air Defense failure? No. Sept 11th was a major air defense failure. We had to launch unarmed F-16s to intercept airlines that weren't communicating, with instructions to ram those passenger jets if they were determined to be a threat. Not having armed fighters ready to scramble was a serious weakness that was corrected. Now in the news when there's a stolen or suspicious aircraft aloft, the F-16s or F-15 get launched quickly to intercept it, armed. Recall the incident where the guy stole a twin-engine plane (think it was a Beech) and did aerobatics over an island off the west coast before doing a suicide dive. U.S. fighters were there, armed and ready and circling the whole time in case he pointed that plane at anything important (other than the ground!)

Anybody who's freaked out about this, just take a deep breath and try to relax. This isn't Pearl Harbor or 9/11. Most (or all...) of the ranting and raving you'll be seeing from politicians is nothing but hot air (hah, the jokes practically write themselves!)

 

[chillinn]

I have little hope recent events could ever lead to any balloon accord or SALT V treaty limiting strategic use of balloons.

 

[idleprocess]

Sensitive projects monitor positions of satellites anyway to make sure they're not out in view during a sat overflight. And the existing infrastructure (missile silos) have already been well-photographed by existing Russian (if not Chinese) satellites by this point. I can't see there was much anything to gain from air-to-ground surveillance by this balloon.

Likely better image quality than satellites can produce since you're observing from a mere ~11 miles up as opposed to the ~150 mile lower limit of LEO, but likely nothing that orbital recon didn't already ID. And the balloon's progress was slow and the trajectory relatively predictable thus easy to counter - or even troll.

Anybody who's freaked out about this, just take a deep breath and try to relax. This isn't Pearl Harbor or 9/11. Most (or all...) of the ranting and raving you'll be seeing from politicians is nothing but hot air (hah, the jokes practically write themselves!)

The outrage being manufactured over this issue has been ... impressive.

 

[Stress_Test]

The outrage being manufactured over this issue has been ... impressive.

I suspect that may have been the main motivation (or one of them) behind the whole balloon flight. Create more discord and division in the U.S. I mean, it's working....

Cheap investment for our enemies to make the public come unhinged even more. Our politicians have to devote a lot of time and effort for damage control and PR spin. The whole while it's a distraction from the other REAL issues occurring in the world, such as Ukraine, etc.

The Chinese cyber-attacks against the U.S. have been much more worrisome to me, but I never saw the same level of outrage in the news as the balloon has generated. (my employment ID info is now in the hands of the Russians and Chinese thanks to one of those hacks, by the way, but I'm just a peon so I'm not expecting to be abducted and hauled to Siberia or anything)

 

[Stress_Test]

I have little hope recent events could ever lead to any balloon accord or SALT V treaty limiting strategic use of balloons.

[ Dr. Strangelove ] "Clearly there is a BALLOON GAP between us and the Communists!!! We have to build more and bigger balloons to catch up!!!" [ /Dr. Strangelove ]

 

[KITROBASKIN]

So much political maneuvering, all about. Thankfully it's a balloon and word slinging. Their objective was achieved. I just hope we can still bring balloons on airliners.

 

[Chauncey Gardiner]

Food for thought -

 

[Stress_Test]

Food for thought -

[ videos ]

Yup, saw the video by Ward Carroll. I've watched a bunch of his stuff and he seems like a solid guy, not unhinged and foaming at the mouth like so many commentators out there. I've really enjoyed his discussion videos with Justin Bronk regarding the Ukraine war.