Panasonic phasing out of Cylindrical Battery Business

[MrAl]

I would not trust any claims on such matters unless they come directly from Panasonic. No doubt the industry is recently strongly driven by EV demands, and partnerships such as those between Tesla and Panasonic will affect short term supply. But don't expect to receive accurate information from rumor mills and small companies that supply hobbyists. Sometimes strategic decisions are not even revealed to major partners, so it would not be wise to assume that one can obtain accurate information many further levels down the supply chain.

Hi,

It is nice to be sure, but sometimes we just cant be, so we might apply a confidence level indicator.
I'd say i am around 60 percent that they might be phasing out the consumer end of the business. That's over 50 percent because they lost some contracts with clients in the past. It's not any higher however because they have such a good partnership with Tesla so they may convert some of that to the consumer end, especially if they end up with overruns. They are also BTW still for sale on many sites on the net.

Of course we wont know for sure until we hear something more direct as you say, so for now we hash it out a little.

 

[StandardBattery]

Here is one new story. In case you are to young to know better yet, news stories are more often than not wrong on the details, but here it is. I don't think this was posted here yet.

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=20457

 

[Gauss163]

It is nice to be sure, but sometimes we just cant be, so we might apply a confidence level indicator.
I'd say i am around 60 percent that they might be phasing out the consumer end of the business. That's over 50 percent because they lost some contracts with clients in the past.

What contracts do you refer to?

It's not any higher however because they have such a good partnership with Tesla so they may convert some of that to the consumer end, especially if they end up with overruns.

Neither Panasonic nor any other top-tier vendor supply naked Li-ion cells for direct consumer use. Such cells enter the consumer market only through unofficial "back-door" channels not endorsed by the manufacturer. Top-tier manufacturers strongly discourage consumer level use of naked cells. Indeed, they have even sent cease and desist letters to shops selling directly to consumers (e.g Sony).

I don't see anything above that would increase my "confidence level" regarding the above rumors.

 

[MrAl]

What contracts do you refer to?



Neither Panasonic nor any other top-tier vendor supply naked Li-ion cells for direct consumer use. Such cells enter the consumer market only through unofficial "back-door" channels not endorsed by the manufacturer. Top-tier manufacturers strongly discourage consumer level use of naked cells. Indeed, they have even sent cease and desist letters to shops selling directly to consumers (e.g Sony).

I don't see anything above that would increase my "confidence level" regarding the above rumors.

Hi,

I'd have to look it up again to find out what contracts were lost, probably due to it's involvement with Tesla.

But saying that "Neither Panasonic nor any other top-tier vendor supply naked Li-ion cells for direct consumer use" is a moot statement. You are basically saying that no manufacturers products reach the consumer market, or at least trying to say that. You also seem to be implying that if they do have overruns, they throw them in the garbage. Obviously any "letters" had no effect.

But strangely you are arguing that they dont want to sell them, yet you say your confidence level for them NOT selling them in the future will not increase. So that sounds like a contradiction. Either you think they will sell less or you think they will sell more, or you think they will not change. So which is it.

 

[Gauss163]

I'd have to look it up again to find out what contracts were lost, probably due to it's involvement with Tesla.

If you are referring to news reports over the last half-year about Panasonic shortages (speculated to be due to reallocation to Tesla) then I don't believe that this temporary move implies anything about the topic at hand (rumors on Panasonic exiting the cyclindrical cell market). If you refer to something else then please provide links.

But saying that "Neither Panasonic nor any other top-tier vendor supply naked Li-ion cells for direct consumer use" is a moot statement. You are basically saying that no manufacturers products reach the consumer market, or at least trying to say that. You also seem to be implying that if they do have overruns, they throw them in the garbage. Obviously any "letters" had no effect.

No, you seem to have misinterpreted my intent, which was merely to emphasize that Panasonic does not target consumer use of loose cells, so this will have little if any role on their long-term strategies in the cylindrical cell market.

For hobbyist use I would be less concerned about temporary shortages and more concerned about the shift to different cell formats. Most top-tier suppliers are retooling their 18650 assembly lines to meet the strong demand for larger EV cells (21700 etc). Once major pack manufacturers switch to the new formats there will be little demand left for 18650, so they may no longer be manufactured by top-tier companies.

 

[MarioJP]

I always wondered about loose cells being sold to consumers due to safety concerns. But here we are. You go to Amazon or any other shops, you see devices that takes loose cells even the new 21700 now. Will this change or business as usual?

 

[Gauss163]

^^^ Probably not, i.e. you will still probably be able to obtain top-tier cells in popular-industrial-sizes through unofficial channels for "off label" use like flashlights. But once a size is no longer in demand in industry then it may be difficult to obtain through such channels. Currently this seems to have only a slight impact on hobbyist supply of 18650's (flashlights, vaping, etc). But it may play a major role in the near future - depending on how quickly industry switches away from 18650s to larger format cells (driven primarily by strong EV demands)

 

[HKJ]

depending on how quickly industry switches away from 18650s to larger format cells (driven primarily by strong EV demands)

And how fast laptops and tools stops using them.

 

[MarioJP]

The new size format would be quite of an upgrade from the 18650. Who wouldn't want longer runtimes on their devices. Going off on the pics and videos. The new cell format, they're only a slight bigger from the current 18650's. I definitely could see 18650's dying out soon.

 

[Gauss163]

And how fast laptops and tools stops using them.

Already included in my above remark, viz. "Once major pack manufacturers switch to the new formats there will be little demand left for 18650s ...".

Note that sometimes it is very easy for a manufacturer to upgrade a pack-powered (vs single-cell) device to new sized cells because this may be possible simply by rearranging the new size cells within the original pack - an option not available for single cell devices such as flashlights (with no room to spare). Recently designed devices may have been explicitly designed to handle such changes efficiently.

 

[HKJ]

Note that sometimes it is very easy for a manufacturer to upgrade a pack-powered (vs single-cell) device to new sized cells because this may be possible simply by rearranging the new size cells within the original pack - an option not available for single cell devices such as flashlights (with no room to spare).

Many tool and laptop packs can not just be filled with a larger size batteries. For laptops the laptop must be redesigned to accept a 15mm longer battery pack. There is also the detail about battery packs getting heavier (It is usual not possible to use one cell less).

 

[Gauss163]

Many tool and laptop packs can not just be filled with a larger size batteries. For laptops the laptop must be redesigned to accept a 15mm longer battery pack. There is also the detail about battery packs getting heavier (It is usual not possible to use one cell less).

That's why I wrote "sometimes...". The larger the pack the larger the probability that such repacking can be done efficiently (e.g. for large EV packs this is often quite possible, esp. if they were designed with such conversions in mind).

 

[MrAl]

If you are referring to news reports over the last half-year about Panasonic shortages (speculated to be due to reallocation to Tesla) then I don't believe that this temporary move implies anything about the topic at hand (rumors on Panasonic exiting the cyclindrical cell market). If you refer to something else then please provide links.



No, you seem to have misinterpreted my intent, which was merely to emphasize that Panasonic does not target consumer use of loose cells, so this will have little if any role on their long-term strategies in the cylindrical cell market.

For hobbyist use I would be less concerned about temporary shortages and more concerned about the shift to different cell formats. Most top-tier suppliers are retooling their 18650 assembly lines to meet the strong demand for larger EV cells (21700 etc). Once major pack manufacturers switch to the new formats there will be little demand left for 18650, so they may no longer be manufactured by top-tier companies.

Hello again,

Thanks for the civil reply and thanks for the clarification. My respect for your replies has now gone up

As i was saying, I also have to say that i am not sure if it matters if the company targets consumers directly or not because we are getting them, and they know it. I cant say though how this is working out in the long run especially since we see so many devices using 18650 cells and they are DESIGNED to target the 18650 size.
This is a sincere question: How do you explain that, or do you have any idea how this is working out in the long run?
I guess i am a little puzzled because we see devices made for the cells, yet supposedly we are not suppose to be able to get the cells. Add to that the WAY we must be getting the cells, and that tells me that the company knows we can get them but does not want to take responsibility for any problems that come up. So indirectly they are selling to consumers, but bypass any liability. They must KNOW though because there are selling to companies that they know cells them in turn. So i see a little industry trickery here.
Now if i am right, then what i said before does hold water because they will just cells more cells, that's all.

I hope i made this clear, i know this is a somewhat complicated issue.

I too go on Amazon and i can buy 100 different flashslights that take 18650 cells, but do not come with any.
I actually did buy many different kinds already for friends and family over the years.

Lastly, i hope we dont see an end to the 18650 some day as i like all of my lights that take those cells.

 

[Gauss163]

^^^ No doubt that the top-tier (cylindrical) Li-ion cell manufacturers are aware that somewhere down the supply chain they are being sold directly to consumers. But they do everything possible to discourage this in order to absolve themselves of liability (e.g. see the famous cease-and-desist letter sent by Sony to a vaping shop - which should be read by everyone who uses loose Li-ion cells).

I see no reason that these unofficial consumer supply chains will disappear absent some major catastrophe that exposes the manufacturers to greater liability (e.g. a vaper is killed and lawyers attempt to sue everyone in the supply chain - all the way up to the manufacturer). What will likely change is that the 18650 format will become scarcer in these channels. But these channels will probably also be able to supply newer formats such as 21700 (and likely soon thereafter will appear flashlights, chargers, etc employing the freshly crowned king-of-industry format).

 

[MarioJP]

I remember reading about Sony sending out a cease and desist letter long time ago. But from the looks of things, that cease and desist letter must be a joke as i still see their cells being sold and in stock too lol.

I do however see a liability page right when you about to place your order with all the safety precautions, etc info associated with these cells and have to agree to place your order. They assume no responsibility if you don't follow safety guidelines.

 

[IlluminationDomination]

^^^^

I believe Murata supposedly took over their L.Ion cell division last September. The cells still have Sony's name on it, at least for now.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ttery-business-murata-september/#.Wt33JhsvwdU

 

[Jon-LiionWholesale]

Unfortunately I can't give any further detail or proof due to confidentiality and legal reasons but the information I said is definitely not a rumor, we have very official communication to that effect. You can choose to believe me or not.

We also engineer our own brand battery packs and protected button tops for flashlights FYI. As long as batteries are protected, the big manufacturers are totally OK with end consumers getting them. It's the unprotected cells that they don't want going direct to consumer.

 

[MarioJP]

So does this means no more loose cells for consumers in the near future?

 

[Gauss163]

Unfortunately I can't give any further detail or proof due to confidentiality and legal reasons but the information I said is definitely not a rumor, we have very official communication to that effect. You can choose to believe me or not.

Neither Panasonic nor any other top-tier manufacturer will deal with companies who sell directly to consumers. So I am highly skeptical that you are in direct communication with Panasonic on this matter.

We also engineer our own brand battery packs and protected button tops for flashlights FYI. As long as batteries are protected, the big manufacturers are totally OK with end consumers getting them. It's the unprotected cells that they don't want going direct to consumer.

None of the top-tier manufacturers have ever endorsed the protected single-cell aftermarket rewraps sold to consumers. Please give some evidence to back up your dubious claim that "the big manufacturers are totally OK with this". This directly contradicts what they have said about such matters, e.g the above-linked cease-and-desist Sony letter that I cited above.

 

[MarioJP]

Every time i see this thread gets updated i get nervous lol. I just want to say that what ever the outcome this may be. I just hope it's a win-win for everyone. Being able to swap cells without the waiting part is the reason for loose cells. At least for me anyways i am sure many others have their reasons too. I hate devices with a built in battery and i get why that is. Consumers don't care/ or not the brightest when it comes handling these particular cells. They're not your standard AA's, but then agian, you have primary lithium AA's sold in stores. How is that safe? Lol. But for the most part; most consumers only care that their devices is charged and go about their day. The percentage of users having loose cells is very small (correct me if i am wrong on this) and not quite that common. But i also understand why the concerning part for big manufactures like Panasonic for consumers to have loose cells in the first place. All comes down to liability. So far we have yet to hear another cell vented in vape incident. But man, these cells packs a lot of energy per volume that blows away traditional cells sold in stores.

So anyways, i just hope the outcome is a win-win for all.