This is a brilliant analysis. This is one of the reasons that I'm staying away from the 60W equivalents and upwards for now. They are just too hot for the electrolytic capacitor to last a long time. At most, a LED bulb should not run hotter than 70 degrees measured on the outside for it realistically last the rated lifetime. Right now most 60W equivalents are running at ~80-90 degrees. That's just too high. I haven't found a good teardown of one yet, but my concern is that the lower-output bulbs are using lower temperature-rated parts to save money, so even those might have a shorter lifetime than stated.
It's a shame too, because the one thing that consumers most associate with LEDs is that they last forever. These bulbs are going to destroy that reputation. And if a consumer no longer has confidence in the lifetime of an LED, then why pay $10-15 for one when I could get a CFL that costs only $1 and actually lasts as long as it says it does?
+1 . This is what I was saying on another thread. Some of these bulbs touched at the heat sinks are literally way too hot to touch without burning yourself. Someone responded to me that the heat sink is supposed to get hot (which it is) and that engineers measure the internal heat... I'm sure they do, but there are also pre-existing form factor constraints which are forcing led tech into old dated bulb styles. This is a problem because as you say to really get the most out of led lighting tech you need GOOD heatsinking and cooling. Combine the fact that a lot of the bulbs don't have good heatsinking and that they are using a lot of cheap methods and parts to bring costs down and I too think these early mass distributed led bulbs are going to give led lighting a bad name. For totally non-enclosed lighting like closets and such most of these bulbs will probably do fine, but so many lights are enclosed and people want to use their bulbs like that.
There is also no coherency to led bulbs right now. I bought 4 Phillips led bulbs last year (the 800lm 2700k bulbs that look more or less like traditional bulbs) and those seemingly are being already phased out in favor of the weird paddle bulbs which at a glance seem way cheaper to manufacture. So now if I do want a replacement for a bulb that does go out there is no identical replacement. Not a big deal as there will probably be bulbs rated the same, but for some one as picky about lighting as myself I'd notice the difference in bulbs output/color temp/light distribution pattern.
EDIT: just read more about this paddle bulb. I was under the impression the light was emitted mainly from the center, but in fact it has 26 tiny leds emitting light around the edges. Definitely a unique design, but still I wonder if it's really dumping heat enough to last the "rated 22.8 years". I'm sure by then it would be a very sad sad looking bulb that is much dimmer and with weird color casts. Also that 22 years is for how many hours a day? Hmm...
Also not rated for enclosed fixtures.
If LED lighting is going to take off big with consumers bulbs need to be made that are totally rated for enclosed fixtures.
