Malaysian Ghost Plane

[Frijid]

Without actually finding the plane or any significant part of it, how are they any more sure now than two weeks ago?

I know right? I've heard there is still garbage floating around in the ocean from the typhoon that hit japan. If i recall, i believe a wave of trash hit the coast of california here a few months ago. all i've seen on tv is just some poor quality images that clearly show anything BUT concrete evidence of an airplane. Still waiting for them to trace the signal on the black box from the airplane

 

[Norm]

While it *probably* is in the ocean, it seems suspect to state as fact without conclusive evidence. Idk...

Also, perhaps the mods could put this thread back in the Cafe? It's really more of a current event thread than an exploding battery thread. I don't really feel it fits here. Thanks.

Let's save the battery thread for factual information, not speculation of an unconfirmed event.

Norm

 

[Jumpmaster]

I'm given to understand that the cockpit voice recorder generally records between thirty minutes to two hours of audio only...and then is overwritten. If this is the case and there was some "event" that occurred at the time the plane made that turn off course...and flew for six or seven more hours, it's unlikely that there will be any audio on the CVR.

Has this occurred to anyone else?

I've learned that flight data recorders tend to have a longer timeframe of data, so maybe it can shed some light on what happened...

 

[nbp]

Let's save the battery thread for factual information, not speculation of an unconfirmed event. Norm

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or disagreeing with me.

I never said I thought it was a battery explosion that caused the plane to crash. I'm not even 100% convinced the plane is in the Indian Ocean, though there is a good chance that it is, as I noted before. On the contrary, the complete lack of any hard evidence to support the theory that the cargo of batteries caused the plane to crash is why I asked for the thread to be removed from the Flaming Battery subforum. At this point, there is as much evidence that the fruit the plane was transporting caused it to crash as there is that the lithium batteries did.

Until the wreckage is recovered or the plane is found parked somewhere in the Middle East, we simply cannot say for certain. And that is why I think it is odd that the authorities are making these official statements.

 

[orbital]

^

That's what Norm is saying.

Frankly, I'd love to hear the argument on how a massive inferno on a plane could keep it's structural integrity for hours of flying.

 

[StarHalo]

I've learned that flight data recorders tend to have a longer timeframe of data, so maybe it can shed some light on what happened...

I worry they'll recover extremely thorough and detailed data regarding the plane's flight path, showing every bit of minutia regarding how the plane maneuvered, but revealing nothing else, which would only deepen the mystery..

Frankly, I'd love to hear the argument on how a massive inferno on a plane could keep it's structural integrity for hours of flying.

The cargo hold's fire suppression system should be able to handle some jetting batteries, the problem is smoke/fumes, and then more batteries flaring up over time. It could start with one box going off, then become manageable, then a few more boxes would go off, etc.

 

[magellan]

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or disagreeing with me.

I never said I thought it was a battery explosion that caused the plane to crash. I'm not even 100% convinced the plane is in the Indian Ocean, though there is a good chance that it is, as I noted before. On the contrary, the complete lack of any hard evidence to support the theory that the cargo of batteries caused the plane to crash is why I asked for the thread to be removed from the Flaming Battery subforum. At this point, there is as much evidence that the fruit the plane was transporting caused it to crash as there is that the lithium batteries did.

Until the wreckage is recovered or the plane is found parked somewhere in the Middle East, we simply cannot say for certain. And that is why I think it is odd that the authorities are making these official statements.

<<At this point, there is as much evidence that the fruit the plane was transporting caused it to crash as there is that the lithium batteries did.>>


I agree, but on the other hand fruits and vegetables have never been known to spontaneously explode or vent.

 

[moldyoldy]

Re: Flight MH370 - 200kg of lithium-ion batteries on board.

apparently CNN is now saying they have "closure" and are sure the plane went down in the ocean. I for one don't believe it. I'm not from the state of missouri, but i still have a "shoe me" attitude, and until i can see come concrete evidence, i'm calling Bologna Sandwhich. I believe they are just getting "tired" of searching and are just pushing this as a quick way to just get it outta everyone mind. More or less so people will be like "oh everyone on the plane died, hey what football game is on tonight?"

fyi: an answer to how did the aviation authorities finally decide where the missing Boeing 777 flew:

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_03_24_2014_p0-674902.xml

Edit: Remember how long it took search teams to find the Air France flight. This event may take longer due to the depth of the south Indian Ocean - which is well known for it's Roaring 40s winds which will further confound the search situation.

 

[nbp]

^ That's what Norm is saying.

Ok, I wasn't sure if it was at me or with me. :ohgeez:

 

[nbp]

<<At this point, there is as much evidence that the fruit the plane was transporting caused it to crash as there is that the lithium batteries did.>> I agree, but on the other hand fruits and vegetables have never been known to spontaneously explode or vent.

Of course you are correct, but I am just using the line of reasoning to emphasize why I think people should be careful about making an assumption about what happened before something (ANYTHING!!!) is known for certain. Apparently they are sending a ping searching machine that can hear the black boxes in up to 20k feet of water. About time!

 

[StarHalo]

Another 3+ hours of reading:

It wasn't fire.

And I have the definitive data that shows how Inmarsat concluded the southern arc of the flight path. But I need sleep, so stay tuned.

 

[orbital]

Ok, I wasn't sure if it was at me or with me. :ohgeez:

+

with you :thumbsup:

the bold text on my post 105 was a bit out of place,

 

[mattheww50]

Another 3+ hours of reading:

It wasn't fire.

And I have the definitive data that shows how Inmarsat concluded the southern arc of the flight path. But I need sleep, so stay tuned.

I also doubt it was a fire. However my belief is based upon what we know about the behavior of the auto pilot in large commercial aircraft. Some of you may remember the crash of a Helios 737 some years ago, which involved a situation where the crew was incapacitated due to a pressurization problem with the aircraft. The autopilot flew the aicraft from way point to way point. When it reach the final waypoint
it simply circled it until it ran out of fuel. Since we know the aircraft made a least two substantial changes in heading, this suggests the autopilot was in fact navigating from way point to way point (as opposed to constant heading mode). There is no evidence that the aircraft reached a final way point and circled. This also suggests that the those in control planned the event.

If you want to crash an airplane in a place where the odds on finding it are slim, the south Indian Ocean would be my choice. The weather tends to be awful (There is a reason it is referred to as the "roaring 40's"), and there is very little air traffic in the area. By contrast the northern arc travels some very heavily used air traffic corridors. While the Primary radars used in Malaysia, Thailand are somewhat suspect,
the Chinese, Pakistani and Indian primary radars would have been active, and any return without a transponder would almost certainly have set off 'alarms' and probably scrambled at least one aircraft to intercept. So I have always regarded the northern arc as unlikely.

While the black boxes will provide useful information about the events leading up to fuel exhaustion, the cockpit voice recorder probably will not. It can only store a couple of hours of cockpit/radio conversation. While I suspect the black boxes will eventually be found, I don't expect it to happen any time soon.

 

[Jumpmaster]

While the black boxes will provide useful information about the events leading up to fuel exhaustion, the cockpit voice recorder probably will not. It can only store a couple of hours of cockpit/radio conversation.

Yeah...I pointed this out last night.

Another theory someone posited is that one of the pilots locked the other one out and then committed suicide (cyanide pill, etc.)...that might fit what happened as well as any other theory...pilot secures the door with other pilot outside, sets autopilot to some waypoint out in the middle of nowhere in the southern Indian Ocean, then takes the pill...plane runs out of fuel after many hours, etc...

And no, I'm not saying I know what happened as someone else posted...it's just another theory. There is really very little confirmed, known-accurate information about this yet so theories will abound.

 

[mcnair55]

Lots of armchair aviation anoraks on here,would be better to let the real people get on with there jobs and report in via the news when they are ready.

 

[Steve K]

Lots of armchair aviation anoraks on here,would be better to let the real people get on with there jobs and report in via the news when they are ready.

but how do we know that the "real people" aren't part of the conspiracy??!! ;)

yep... let the investigators investigate... gather data, and then see what the data suggests or supports.

 

[Jumpmaster]

You know what? Nevermind. Not important.

 

[nbp]

Lots of armchair aviation anoraks on here,would be better to let the real people get on with there jobs and report in via the news when they are ready.

You sure use the term anorak often.

If you are not interested in discussing the topic, feel free to avoid the thread.

Furthermore, If it assuages your concerns any, I am confident our discussion here won't hinder the efforts of any "real people" involved in the investigation.

 

[StarHalo]

rolling bump

 

[Jumpmaster]

You sure use the term anorak often.

If you are not interested in discussing the topic, feel free to avoid the thread.

Furthermore, If it assuages your concerns any, I am confident our discussion here won't hinder the efforts of any "real people" involved in the investigation.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Thank you, nbp.