Coronavirus

[idleprocess]

Folks are frustrated. One day they say up to 2 million folks will die in America from this thing.
Then it was "oh we hadn't thought about the 6 foot thing, uh, make that 200 thousand, 100 if we get lucky".
Then "oh, um err uh, we're thinking 60k to 80k but think of grandma, stay at home"

The more data they show us the more many people thought they'd been ripped off here. "I lost my job for a lousy 80k folks might die from this?" Now they're saying it could be fall before "sanctions" are lifted?

Welcome to the exciting world of modeling, also known as forecasting, and less generously as making an educated guess. Add to the mix the many initial unknowns regarding COVID-19, incomplete data, emerging circumstances, and a media market for whom selling anxiety has become a fundamental business imperative so you keep your ears tuned, your eyes peeled, and those fingers clicking - especially that latter point.

Best I can gather, the reporting on the potential death toll has been the usual atrocious. Modeling these outbreaks - especially early on - involves making sets of assumptions so as to provide upper and lower estimates. The news business - always looking to drive up ratings (and what they can charge for advertising as well as generating more impressions online) - grabbed one of the early projections and reported the worst case scenario where the disease was assumed to be more lethal than it really is, and we blithely did nothing until the medical system was absolutely overwhelmed. The numbers of course improved as more information became available to refine the models and we undertook actions to reduce the spread.

Did the eggheads get it wrong? Yes, but only in the most distorted sense of the term since the initial models were known to be coarse things and were already under refinement by the time the initial alarming numbers were reported on CNN, FOX et al. But by then the cycle of manufactured outrage had spooled up and the eggheads were mostly busy refining their models and doing what they could to further mitigate the impact while bloggers were busy gnashing their teeth, shaking their fists, and again proving that Dunning-Kruger is indeed a very real thing.

 

[Poppy]

Illinois, bud.

The overall population density of Illinois is only 230 per square mile.

About 12,000 per square mile in the Chicago area. If not for the population of Chicago, the density in the state would be less.
So, in other words, are you near Chicago? The answer to that question would to a great extent impact your perspective. And help me understand your position.

 

[Fish 14]

The overall population density of Illinois is only 230 per square mile.

Over 5,000 per square mile in the Chicago area. If not for the population of Chicago, the density in the state would be less.
So, in other words, are you near Chicago? The answer to that question would to a great extent impact your perspective. And help me understand your position.

About 40 min south of downtown

 

[bykfixer]

My space is more crowded than yours aint working. It's everywhere man.
It's like saying apples and oranges both contain sugar. So do pears and plums. Each has it's own version. Hell I cannot tell you when the last time I shook hands with anybody. Even my grown up kids and I stay 6 feet apart now. We look at each other with a bit of suspicion these days. My own freaking kids.
One of the boys came by the other day and Mrs Fixer made him show her he didn't have a fever. And when venturing out for necessities, oh Lord if a person 75' away sneezes it's panic at the grocery store.

This thing is weighing on everybody. Crowded spaces or the prarie. Perspective varies as much by personality as position. Circumstances for my neighbor differ from mine. Next door, one block over, across the river and 75 miles away.

I'm just waiting to see if Kim Gong Irn fell off his skateboard and konked his noggin, choked on a Dorito or has the covid-19. We may never know what really happened.

 

[5S8Zh5]

I have to say I like grocery delivery. I open my garage and they carry it in. Two orders and I've gotten everything I've ordered. I could get used to this post-covid 19.

 

[Fish 14]

Mis information and deception at it's finest. New data shows the flu shots are causing false positive tests for covid.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=BhLc3l5ROQk

 

[Fish 14]

My space is more crowded than yours aint working. It's everywhere man.
It's like saying apples and oranges both contain sugar. So do pears and plums. Each has it's own version. Hell I cannot tell you when the last time I shook hands with anybody. Even my grown up kids and I stay 6 feet apart now. We look at each other with a bit of suspicion these days. My own freaking kids.
One of the boys came by the other day and Mrs Fixer made him show her he didn't have a fever. And when venturing out for necessities, oh Lord if a person 75' away sneezes it's panic at the grocery store.

This thing is weighing on everybody. Crowded spaces or the prarie. Perspective varies as much by personality as position. Circumstances for my neighbor differ from mine. Next door, one block over, across the river and 75 miles away.

I'm just waiting to see if Kim Gong Irn fell off his skateboard and konked his noggin, choked on a Dorito or has the covid-19. We may never know what really happened.

I get it. But the current death rate is less than the seasonal flu, so why wasn't everyone acting like this in the past? Data shows that the flu is killing more people than this made up pandemic.It's because mass media has twisted the story. I'm not buying into this whole 6ft, face mask and gloves BS. just go about your normal daily lives.

 

[StarHalo]

making an educated guess...a media market for whom selling anxiety has become a fundamental business imperative...reporting on the potential death toll has been the usual atrocious...making sets of assumptions... The news business - always looking to drive up ratings...Did the eggheads get it wrong?... cycle of manufactured outrage...Dunning-Kruger

Well that's not ideal, not unexpected though; the media projects a range of possibilities and some are worse than average, we've been through that with other events before.

and we blithely did nothing until the medical system was absolutely overwhelmed.

That's awful. I understand the post is about the media and the media and the media, but history will remember what we did and didn't do, not what we projected. Especially for a people who boast about being prepared for these kinds of things, about being able to pull together in hard times, that's going to be quite a black mark.

 

[mountaindewer]

I've got a strange sense of humor, known to come out at the wrong time. The past few times I've been shopping, I quietly sing "Baby, can you dig your man?" and so far I've got just two hits back.

A guy around 30 said "stock up on TP for captain tripps" and a very librarian looking woman around 45 to 50 said "Mr. King called this one."

Humor can get us through the worst of times.

 

[Fish 14]

This time is no worse than last year or the years before. Just turn off mass media for a week and forget about the what Trump calls the "fake news". Life is so m much better when you do.

 

[scout24]

Mountaindewer- Dingdingding!!! Larry Underwood would be proud.

 

[bykfixer]

The pandemic is real. It would be best to practice the distancing and hygene stuff because even if you don't believe the covid is dangerous, the flu is still spreading in numerous states.

 

[Fish 14]

I'm not saying it's fake, I'm saying it's no different than the seasonal flu. Clink the link I posted, you'll then have a better understanding and more room for a argument

 

[turbodog]

Based on the numbers it seems clear that we are still in the VERY early stages of the whole process. I'd say we are <5% done with this thing. When states open back up the real fun will begin.

 

[bykfixer]

I clicked the link. Maybe time will show the covid and flu are about the same.

But right now the novel corona being same as flu is like saying plywood is same as a 2x4. In the US it may end up with similar numbers of dead. Heck perhaps way less cases than a flu season. But there aint no Tami-flu for covid-19. The novelty of the virus causes the human body to react differently than influenza. American scientists will get a grip on this too, but for now the virus has its way as we learn who is actually vulnerable, how to treat it, how it spreads, heck even who has it and don't know it.

I predict in a year or two we can say yeah it's just another virus. But right now we all need to learn how to thwart the spread while trying to carry on a normal life. Politicians aint making that easy. We should be more fearful of that down the road than this new virus.

 

[Cree XHP 70 LED]

The lab did make that virus able to jump from bats to humans. This is not a natural virus, it has been modified. That said, it is here to stay, and there is a country who is going to pay.



https://youtu.be/Le_rfTdayLs

 

[StarHalo]

I have to say I like grocery delivery. I open my garage and they carry it in. Two orders and I've gotten everything I've ordered. I could get used to this post-covid 19.

Instacart has really gone downhill since the pandemic, it was way better before; I don't know what happened to the seasoned shoppers who were good at it, but it's all new people who frequently make mistakes now. It was always my second choice to the much better Amazon Fresh, but Fresh only serves certain limited areas near their warehouses.

My elder kid had a fever last week and is at this moment in the other room with my wife on the phone Facetiming with the doctor - that's a service I could get used to..

 

[SCEMan]

I've got a strange sense of humor, known to come out at the wrong time. The past few times I've been shopping, I quietly sing "Baby, can you dig your man?" and so far I've got just two hits back.

A guy around 30 said "stock up on TP for captain tripps" and a very librarian looking woman around 45 to 50 said "Mr. King called this one."

Humor can get us through the worst of times.

Thank god I haven't seen the "The Walkin' Dude" yet...

 

[Empath]

Fish, please reread this. At the least, direct orders from an administrator should be considered seriously. Come back in a week, and see if the thread has settled down enough to keep you from jumping back in.

 

[bigburly912]

M O O N. That spells temporary ban.