OH MAN IT'S COLD!!

[Cataract]

FWIW, I use only Energizer Lithium cells in both the base station and the outside temp/humidity sensor. Never had a problem. Currently I am using the Ultimate Lithium cells. Run time is well over a year. The brand is LaCrosse Technology although this model is long since obsolete. Certainly a repeatable purchase! About my only complaint is that the recording is stopped at -30C temp and 20% humidity. nothing lower.

current temp at 1830 is -24.6C and dropping. sigh. another 'shiver me timbers' night.

Good point... I definitely should double-check which batteries I put in there. I might have put cheapies as I haven't bought batteries in a while. The sensor has been a little picky in locations and I thought this model was probably a little finicky from the start since I got it during a super-special rebate (30$ instead of 70-80$). Why didn't I even check the batteries beats me, though... I think mine too is rated for -30C and I'll still definitely get a backup glass thermometer as we hit less than that a few times already this year, which I haven't seen often in my life.

On another related note, my dad once read an article about a meteorologist that was much more accurate in yearly predictions than just about anyone else; He figured the average temperature should be influenced by the Sun's activity cycles. He compared data from yearly weather and sun activity cycles and bang! They matched up. Right now the sun is supposed to be at it's 11 year peak, but this is the calmest peak astronomers have seen since the very early 1900's (just about 1900 to be precise). This could definitely explain the cold spell we're experiencing.

 

[PhotonWrangler]

Down to the single digits here but the killer is the wind chill. It's another three dog night.

 

[jtr1962]

On another related note, my dad once read an article about a meteorologist that was much more accurate in yearly predictions than just about anyone else; He figured the average temperature should be influenced by the Sun's activity cycles. He compared data from yearly weather and sun activity cycles and bang! They matched up. Right now the sun is supposed to be at it's 11 year peak, but this is the calmest peak astronomers have seen since the very early 1900's (just about 1900 to be precise). This could definitely explain the cold spell we're experiencing.

That's interesting. Now if the trend continues as the sun's output dips down to its minimum in 5 and a half years we could be in for a series of brutal winters.. The upside is we'll hopefully have mild summers. Right now temps in NYC are running 15 to 20° F below winter normals. If this had been summer, that would mean highs in the low to mid 60s. This is just about perfect if you ask me. I don't care for anything warmer.

 

[Cataract]

That's interesting. Now if the trend continues as the sun's output dips down to its minimum in 5 and a half years we could be in for a series of brutal winters.. The upside is we'll hopefully have mild summers. Right now temps in NYC are running 15 to 20° F below winter normals. If this had been summer, that would mean highs in the low to mid 60s. This is just about perfect if you ask me. I don't care for anything warmer.

I'm no expert and I'd sure like to find out more about that research but, just out of pure observation, I tend to believe that more sun activity = hotter summers and colder winters while less solar activity would mean mild summers and mild winters. This one IS the most brutal winter in 5 years. I remember the last real brutal cold winter we had over here was between 2002 and 2004, so around 11 years ago.

I can remember it clearly because it was -40 and I had to put some oil in the engine before leaving work. Of course, the oil had been sitting in the trunk all day and it poured out exactly like chilled caramel ( an inch a minute, with sticky filaments flying off in the wind and all! It also spread just like caramel as I tried to wipe it off the valve cover.) I had to go out twice just to pour about a quart because I couldn't take it.

 

[moldyoldy]

<snip>

On another related note, my dad once read an article about a meteorologist that was much more accurate in yearly predictions than just about anyone else; He figured the average temperature should be influenced by the Sun's activity cycles. He compared data from yearly weather and sun activity cycles and bang! They matched up. Right now the sun is supposed to be at it's 11 year peak, but this is the calmest peak astronomers have seen since the very early 1900's (just about 1900 to be precise). This could definitely explain the cold spell we're experiencing.

actually that is a good basis for estimation! Once upon a time, at least 10 years ago, the head of the US Weather Service and the head of the Old Farmers Almanac were somehow convinced to show up for a debate on weather forecasting on the NPR TV. Interesting to say the least!

Simply put, the Old Farmers Almanac was well above 50% accuracy for long term of a month or longer, more like 60-70%, and rather indefinite for anything in the couple weeks or less time range. The US Weather Service was fairly good up to 24hrs in advance and started falling apart at about 3 days in advance. Beyond a week the USWS was not reliable at all because their basis was primarily historical.

The Old Farmers Almanac relied on various cycles and their interaction: sunspots, the various El-xyz ocean temps in the Pacific, the spring & neap tides, etc. Historical evidence played a role as well. BTW, Spring tide is not related to Springtime, only that it is the highest.

The US Weather Service did not take any sunspot cycles or other such periodic phenomena in to their computations. They relied primarily on weather reporting, and especially from passenger aircraft on their flight routes. In particular the USWS focused on reporting cubes for forecasting and radar for more immediate events. He stated that if he could change his reporting cube down to a 10KM cube or less the forecasts would be much better. Too much still develops and dies w/in a 10KM cube. Admittedly the computer capability would have to be enhanced by a factor of at least 10. However he clearly rejected the imprecise nature of tracking various celestial cycles. Simply nothing that they could feed in to a computer.

I used to purchase the "Old Farmers Almanac" booklet and stopped because too much info was focused on farming, and I was interested in the weather. Now it seems to have metamorphosed into the "Farmers Almanac" with a website.

 

[EZO]

Many people don't know that there are actually two separate and competing almanacs, The Old Farmer's Almanac and The Farmer's Almanac. They easily get confused with one another and so many folks think there is only one.

 

[Cataract]

I have noticed the same thing in Canada with national VS farmer's almanac predictions. Some of the data is, of course, based on what comes from the U.S. AFAIK

Another major influence on weather prediction I have read about was the distance between weather stations; The article said that a maximum of 1 station per 10 kilometer square (10K X 10K) was needed for accurate weather, while in Canada, we have an average of 1 station per 100 kilometer square due in large part to the concentration of population over the territory. Now that I think of it, U.S. weather isn't much more accurate and you have a population that is much more concentrated. Sounds like the 10Km square makes a lot of sense on it's own.

 

[StarHalo]

I in Canada, we have an average of 1 station per 100 kilometer square due in large part to the concentration of population over the territory.

Got quite a few in your area, click the "Station Select" button near the top center of the page.

 

[Bullzeyebill]

We're up to the 70's (F) here in CA. Cold at night down to the 40's. Draught conditions here. Resivours are way down. Governor declared CA a draught state.

Bill

 

[y260]

Tonight is the coldest night of the year (so far) in Hawai'i. It's 59 degrees where I am but it might as well be below zero...us locals cannot take the cold.

 

[TEEJ]

I'm no expert and I'd sure like to find out more about that research but, just out of pure observation, I tend to believe that more sun activity = hotter summers and colder winters while less solar activity would mean mild summers and mild winters. This one IS the most brutal winter in 5 years. I remember the last real brutal cold winter we had over here was between 2002 and 2004, so around 11 years ago.

I can remember it clearly because it was -40 and I had to put some oil in the engine before leaving work. Of course, the oil had been sitting in the trunk all day and it poured out exactly like chilled caramel ( an inch a minute, with sticky filaments flying off in the wind and all! It also spread just like caramel as I tried to wipe it off the valve cover.) I had to go out twice just to pour about a quart because I couldn't take it.

You should switch to a good synthetic oil, the pour point would not be as impacted, as the dino juice and its more waxy constituents, that make the oil pour like caramel when too cold, etc)

IE: It pours normally when that cold.

:D

 

[moldyoldy]

Many people don't know that there are actually two separate and competing almanacs, The Old Farmer's Almanac and The Farmer's Almanac. They easily get confused with one another and so many folks think there is only one.

Thanks! That I was not sure of. However now that you pointed it out, I did a bit of searching on the Internet and found several "Farmer's Almanacs". Interesting that nearly all of them have been published for quite a while and appear to have outlasted their founders. Meaning that they have a reliable audience. Rather curious in this day of computers and data processing!

 

[nbp]

Old-timers love those things. I know a few old farmers who talk about the Almanac all the time. It's not especially accurate based on their descriptions.

 

[Cataract]

Got quite a few in your area, click the "Station Select" button near the top center of the page.

Great Link, thanks!

Yes, there is a concentration of weather stations here since this is the largest population concentration for... I believe 500 kilometers west of here (just a number based on the fact that the other large concentration of people upstream would have to be Toronto, no research was done here). The 1 station every 10 kilometer square minimum I quoted would have to be an average upstream to be able to predict the weather on a given location. now that you bring that up, I wonder if they get better predictions East from here...

You should switch to a good synthetic oil, the pour point would not be as impacted, as the dino juice and its more waxy constituents, that make the oil pour like caramel when too cold, etc)

IE: It pours normally when that cold.

:D

That was a decade ago; my current car gets synthetic only, but I'm still doing all I can to avoid having to play in the engine bay when it gets drastically cold... memories, man!


You guys down south: as much as it pains me to see your above freezing lows, you definitely are getting some huge contrasts between day and night. That probably feels worse since you can still go out in shorts during the day and don't ever need a rally thick jacket... Which reminds me of another winter story:

BACK IN ... darn... around 2006, I think:
It was in late March or early April (just too lazy to look it up, but the records are there): one day it was around -5C/23F, the next +10C/50F. Then we had a -10C/14F day followed by a +20C/68F day. I was in full winter gear one day, the next in shorts and sandals and I'm not the type to wear shorts and sandals under 70-72F. Then the next day it was -20C/-4F!!!! On days in sandals, the next in winter survival gear and shivering!

 

[moldyoldy]

Got quite a few in your area, click the "Station Select" button near the top center of the page.

Thanks for the link - very good! Probably the most complete weather page I have observed in opensource links.

an example is the listing of the civil, nautical, and astronomical twilight. I used to program my HP41/48 to return the times for the corresponding -6deg, -12deg, and -18deg sun angles. I found it interesting to follow the angle of the sun as it went around the earth from my location.

The only better link was the log-in link used by my pilot nephew when he checked the weather aloft and on the destination ground for his flight route to compare with the airline's forecast.

 

[jtr1962]

I usually provide a link to the weather in Yakutsk to anyone complaining about the cold. Those temperatures make what we're seeing here in the US look downright tropical.

 

[moldyoldy]

I usually provide a link to the weather in Yakutsk to anyone complaining about the cold. Those temperatures make what we're seeing here in the US look downright tropical.

+1.

Actually, any of the Gulag sites were selected because of those aspects. My wife's father survived some 12 years in the Soviet Gulag at various sites, including the so-called "ПОЛЮС ХОЛОДА", or 'Pole of Cold' which is northeast of Yakutsk at Верхоянск. (current weather is -67F!) Yakutsk is a paradise compared with Верхоянск, Russland. His voice was hoarse because his vocal cords were frost-bitten more than once. One not-so-trivial advantage of those locations: minimal guard coverage. Did the prison management need to expect a breakout from the 'prison'? why? Where was the escapee going to 'run to'? Only hundreds of kilometers of Tundra out there. The guards watched only for hoarding of food and water. ie: There was 1 guard at the head of the column of prisoners to/from the work site, another guard at the tail. nothing more was needed. If someone fell by the wayside, nature took care of the problem....

 

[guiri]

My mom told me that last week, close to where we USED to live in Northern Sweden, the temperature was -49 fahrenheit. When I looked at
the weather map a few days after, it was -42 and at the same time, the north pole and antarctica were much warmer :)

People's response when interviewed for the news..."I've got warmer clothes, no problem"

That's the spirit :)

 

[TEEJ]

My mom told me that last week, close to where we USED to live in Northern Sweden, the temperature was -49 fahrenheit. When I looked at
the weather map a few days after, it was -42 and at the same time, the north pole and antarctica were much warmer :)

People's response when interviewed for the news..."I've got warmer clothes, no problem"

That's the spirit :)

LOL

True.

--------------------------

BTW - I have observed this pattern where a difference between men and woman, and the weather has surfaced:


Woman seem to have a tendency (As a pattern, not a rule per se) to want to turn up the thermostat "Because its colder out", and men tend to assume that the thermostat will automatically maintain the temperature its set for.


So, in my house for example, and some of my friend's houses....if the thermostat in winter for example is normally set for 65º F, if they hear its going to drop to 10º outside, the woman want to raise the setting to 66 - 67º.

The guys scratch their heads, and say that the thermostat will maintain the house at 65º if set to 65º just like it always does as the outside temperature changes.


Obviously, if the heating system can't maintain the temperature difference due to the outside being TOO cold, IE: Its so cold, it overwhelms the capacity of the heating system...then it doesn't matter if the thermostat is at 65º or 105º, if it can't even reach 65º.

If the system CAN maintain 65º, then, it will.

Therefore, to me and "the guys", it seems illogical to turn up the heat manually unless you simply want it WARMER than it was previously set for...but not because its colder OUTSIDE....as that's what a thermostat is FOR.


The woman though, seem to feel its necessary to compensate for it being colder OUTSIDE, manually...by making it warmer than normal inside.


On the flip side, BOTH sexes seem to want to turn the AIR-CONDITIONING to a lower temp than normal if its WARMER OUTSIDE.


Granted, most AC systems have a harder time maintaining a temperature differential than most heating systems...IE: A ~ 20º F difference capability for an AC system is common, so if its 100º F outside, it may only be ABLE to make it ~ 80º inside.

But, again, if it can't get down to 75º when its 100º outside when SET TO 75º, it can't magically get down to 75º if you set it to 55º.


The only times I could rationalize manually changing the thermostat "to compensate" for the outside temps is IF your HVAC will NOT keep up as the difference is too extreme, AND you have a head start to say make it cooler at night when the AC can get ahead better, and then simply lose ground from a better starting point during the heat of the day....or, visa versa for heating.


Is this pattern something you people see too?

:D

 

[jtr1962]

Is this pattern something you people see too?

I'm not a woman and I tend to keep the house warmer when it's colder outside. However, I do this economically. I use an electric heater in whatever room I'm in, as opposed to turning up the thermostat and making the entire house warmer. There's actually some sound scientific reasoning here. When it's colder out, the humidity of heated air is lower, and therefore you feel colder at any given temperature. For example, often when I'm in a 70 degree room and it's 15 degrees outside, I'll be cold wearing a sweater. When it's 70 outside and humid, I'm miserably hot.

If my mom is any indication, one big difference between the sexes is that most men know how a thermostat works while women expect it to read your mind. It only maintains whatever temperature it's set for. My mom expects it to detect when she feels cold, and turn up the heat accordingly. I tell her that's not the way thermostats work but she keeps saying the thermostat must be "broken".

On the flip side, BOTH sexes seem to want to turn the AIR-CONDITIONING to a lower temp than normal if its WARMER OUTSIDE.

Definitely guilty as charged. Fortunately I oversize our room A/Cs a bit so they can hold 70 degrees when it's 100 out. And often I'll run at least the one in my bedroom full tilt overnight if the next day is going to be really hot. The day might start off with the room at a slightly chilly 60, but it'll warm up to 70 or 75 by sunset. If I didn't do this, the room might be an unbearable 80-85 by day's end. I've also been known to keep my bedroom at 55 in the summers when the A/C can get it down that low, especially towards the end of summer when my body seems to go through a state of heat exhaustion where I just can't wait for colder weather to start.

Given a choice, I'll take the weather we're having now over summer anytime. You can always put more clothes on. In summer there's literally nothing to make you more comfortable outside.