raggie33
*the raggedier*
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2003
- Messages
- 13,698
nothing i was jokeing. but i do love la guns but i wish they would go back to original lineup
Coronavirus - II
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nothing i was jokeing. but i do love la guns but i wish they would go back to original lineup
RedLED
Flashlight Enthusiast
That's cool, man.
raggie33
*the raggedier*
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2003
- Messages
- 13,698
ive got a strange sence of humor. ps i love ya avatar check out her in the steel panther video
turbodog
Flashaholic
That may have happened accidentally, or in the beginning of the reporting phase, but I have not seen any legit evidence other than a few random reports. I can tell you that MS transmits a patient ID number when they report results to the state health dept. Health dept culls out additional positive reports.
Any test can have false positive/false negative results. If indeed the fruit/goat test was performed (snopes lists this event as unverifiable) who knows what effect weird stuff like that could have on the test. On a humorous note... maybe the goat had covid. Bats, pigs, and humans can get it... why not goats?
I know the labs I have direct knowledge of are strictly professional. I honestly can't imagine anyone cooking the books, from the bench tech to shift supervisor to lab director. Then it would have to pass through a few managers and the "C" suite as well. This isn't saying there's not human error... but that would only be a fraction of a fraction of total cases if it was.
The original tests had serious accuracy problems are were soon recalled by FDA. That's been a long time back though. And finally, given the serious rise in the numbers lately I expect testing (which is already backlogged) will get even worse soon. I don't know how much excess capacity is in the testing system. Maybe we will get some spit tests soon, self administered.
bigburly912
Flashlight Enthusiast
???? Have you not heard or read about the Abbott tests, that's not old news that's every day news. Places are still using them knowing they are junk because they have nothing else
turbodog
Flashaholic
The test info I got directly from a cousin who's an MD. There are still several on the market. I'm sure these test mfg are doing the best they can under immense pressure.
I don't really follow the test brands/details too much anymore. Positives are pouring out of the woodwork with commensurate ICU impacts as well... sort of a moot point.
https://www.businessinsider.com/best-coronavirus-antibody-tests-ranked-by-accuracy-2020-7
These guys praise Abbott (and 2 other mfg) as having very good test. I linked the article though to illustrate a different point. If testing is not performed at the right time you get an erroneous reading.
I'm not sure how much longer an antibody test will be useful. As hospitals fill up and patient load increases the only testing that's going to get done will be rapid/point of care in order to verify infection before/during the admitting process.
Concerning rapid tests... if done by the lab staff the results should be accurate (or as accurate as the test allows). When trained, rapid can be done by non-lab staff. But incorrect procedures there will yield bad results. Time will tell how well this works in practice.
EDIT:
Apparently their rapid tests are coming under fire. However, I note the procedural mishaps when performing the test process.
https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/fda-probes-accuracy-issue-with-abbotts-rapid-virus-test/75751803
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RetroTechie
Flashlight Enthusiast
I understand less & less about this fixation with "infections" or "cases". :shakehead Cases are confirmed cases only, that is: people who have been tested, and tested positive. Infections are unknown, estimates based on # of cases + a guestimate of how many more infections there are for each confirmed case. :thinking: Or (better) based on sampling a small subset of the population. Usually not random sampling, which makes results less useful for statistical purposes (I've read that for this purpose, they're even testing sewage for virus RNA). Not to mention how many tests are actually done. Or how it's decided who gets tested or not.
Read: both numbers are largely a function of your testing & tracing policies. Combined with poor statistics & a lot of guesswork. NOT a reliable indicator to determine what state the country is in.
Better look at hospitalizations, ICU beds, and deaths. Yes there's a delay between infections & hospitalizations. And a longer delay between infections & deaths. But as you slow down the spread through social distancing, cancelling mass gatherings, face masks etc, looking at a number that lags actual infections 1 or 2 weeks, is not that big a deal. And hospitalizations (or ICU beds) are a much better predictor for deaths in the weeks ahead than "cases" number which varies wildly based on who is tested when or how. "Hospitalizations" takes the unknown # of infections, and unknown % of infected who need hospital care, out of the equation. People that are infected, but stay out of hospital, DON'T bog down your medical resources. Hospitalizations do, and that # includes both known and unknown infections regardless where patients came from or where/how they got the virus. Which makes it a lot more useful number to decide how (as a country) you're doing & what to expect in the weeks ahead.
For example in my country, "infections" has been flaring up, and there's talk of fear for a 2nd wave, re-instating some restrictions that were lifted recently, etc. Buuttt... hospitalizations: a few dozen people per week. Deaths: 7 (iirc) last week, similar to the week before. That is for the whole country. Compare with the 1st peak (end of March/beginning of April) when there were ~100 deaths (and new hospitalizations a multiple of that) per day.
These low numbers we're currently seeing here is despite several restrictions lifted, people not doing that social distancing thing too well anymore, some incidents like a mass protest here & there, and well over 2 weeks passed since then. Which leads me to conclude that in my country, COVID-19 has basically run its course. Yes it'll continue to go around, and find new victims that somehow managed to escape infection so far. And could make a comeback coming winter. Or some nasty mutation popping up. But for now: no 2nd wave. Regardless of all the fear mongering everywhere. At worst a slight uptick some weeks after another restriction is lifted.
The US is not there yet. Nor countries like Brazil, India or Russia. Or countries lagging behind even further. Not to mention economic / social / political upheaval. Rough times still ahead...
turbodog
Flashaholic
All things are proportional to the known cases: unknown cases, hospitalizations, ICU beds, vents, etc.
My focus on confirmed cases is this... it's a reflection, in aggregate, of our behavior as a society. It's the quickest way to see if people are masking, if they are distancing, if they are avoiding unneeded trips to the store, if they are avoiding gatherings, and so on. The data is showing, at least in the region of the US I live in, that they are NOT.
Yes it's political. We've tested more in gross numbers than any other country, but not per capita. We are 22nd in that regard. And you have to look at all things as rates/percentages otherwise it's misleading. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
This event will be studied for next next 100 years: virus itself, spreading, lockdown effects, masking effects, political effects, economic effects, shortages of drugs/PPE/beds.
Pretty much all major hospitals in my state have stopped non-critical surgeries yet the ICU numbers continue to grow. They have activated their 'surge' plans and _spare_ ICU availability is critically low. Care to tell me how that's _not_ a problem?
Go click on your state and compare to FL,TX,AZ. Be sure to overlay the US totals. Virginia is doing nicely right now. Other states not so much. https://covidtracking.com/data
My focus on confirmed cases is this... it's a reflection, in aggregate, of our behavior as a society. It's the quickest way to see if people are masking, if they are distancing, if they are avoiding unneeded trips to the store, if they are avoiding gatherings, and so on. The data is showing, at least in the region of the US I live in, that they are NOT.
Yes it's political. We've tested more in gross numbers than any other country, but not per capita. We are 22nd in that regard. And you have to look at all things as rates/percentages otherwise it's misleading. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
This event will be studied for next next 100 years: virus itself, spreading, lockdown effects, masking effects, political effects, economic effects, shortages of drugs/PPE/beds.
Pretty much all major hospitals in my state have stopped non-critical surgeries yet the ICU numbers continue to grow. They have activated their 'surge' plans and _spare_ ICU availability is critically low. Care to tell me how that's _not_ a problem?
Go click on your state and compare to FL,TX,AZ. Be sure to overlay the US totals. Virginia is doing nicely right now. Other states not so much. https://covidtracking.com/data
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Fear is a great weapon that is used to control people and large numbers is useful to those who are ignorant of statistics and percentages and relevance to the world we live in. Instead of the media and politicians saying 6000 people were infected in a state of 4 million they say only 0.15% of the state was infected today they use the largest numbers possible to instill fear in those who don't relate them. People seem to forget we have 330 million people in the US and 150 thousand people dying is only 0.045% of the population has died so far from this virus
SCEMan
Flashlight Enthusiast
As of yesterday in LA County; 172,325 cases of COVID-19 and 4,351 deaths (not to mention the thousands whose lives will never be the same due to serious health ramifications of the disease). Consider that the actual number is probably 10 times higher with undetected infected asymptomatic carriers still at work and among us.
No indoor dining or movie theaters, etc. anywhere while the virus is out-of-control. With almost 80% of the recent cases under age 50 (majority of those under 30) the reopening has been a disaster. Reopening bars resulted in a breeding ground and it appears another shutdown is imminent. Meanwhile public protests and rioting further the crisis...
No indoor dining or movie theaters, etc. anywhere while the virus is out-of-control. With almost 80% of the recent cases under age 50 (majority of those under 30) the reopening has been a disaster. Reopening bars resulted in a breeding ground and it appears another shutdown is imminent. Meanwhile public protests and rioting further the crisis...
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turbodog
Flashaholic
I hear you. So if the point was to say why percentages are not used I get it. Math/science literacy is low. Average US citizen reads at 8th grade level also.
I'm reminding you that the healthcare system can only service so many people at a time. C-19 is squeezing out other critical needs. When beds are needed for c-19, they are needed for long periods of time, not just a 1-2 day stay.
Going back to the infection numbers. They are a representation of our actions. So as long as they follow a certain pattern and we don't adjust our actions then we can see where numbers will end up. And it's not good.
XKCD says it well.
https://xkcd.com/2278/
turbodog
Flashaholic
I laughed WAY too much at this!
...
It actually looks pretty good. I'd buy one if it wasn't bright yellow and had the logo removed.
turbodog
Flashaholic
Sad thing is that if people would follow mask/distance/occupancy/etc guidelines we could probably reopen most everything. Tour bus/airlines would need supply of actual n95 to hand out, but otherwise the cloth masks would likely suffice.
I have Shamwows all over my house. I use them for just about everything... especially good for cleaning my bulldog's nose rope. And he likes it! When I even say the word "ShamWow", he heads to the kitchen for a cleaning. Great for cleaning those stainless steel appliances without streaking (use Pledge, not ordinary kitchen cleaners). Soooo... I would imagine, they would be quite effective as a mask... they work for everything else! - I would wear the logo... but yeah, the color? Meh. Maybe you can hand wash it and add a couple drops of food coloring to the rinse water? :shrug:
Now let's look at the other part of this commercial... Vince. I LOVE Vince! He sold me the SlapChop many years ago! Dude totally cracks me up!
turbodog
Flashaholic
I received a 10 pack of the hanes white cotton masks. Dyed them red with clothes dye. Washed thoroughly. Then they turned all my socks pink.
PhotonWrangler
Flashaholic
I bought a package of these. The package claims "Adjustable nosepiece for enhanced fit" but there is no adjustable nosepiece. I'm not using them. Buyer beware.
I don't care much about the nosepiece but do they fit your head decently? They are cheap enough so I was thinking of buying a pack so I could spread them around to my vehicles and such. Right now I have just one reusable mask and if I forget it at home and have to make an unplanned stop at a store or something I am in a pickle.
Our mayor mandated masks and a week later 200 extra hospital beds mysteriously opened.... I"m sure we have 2-300 more beds we could come up with if needed around here but hey.... gotta get attention so maybe you can run for senator when Inhoff retires one day here.
As for the numbers..... masks aren't going to defeat human behavior. People are tired of doing nothing a lot of folks aren't professional couch potatoes. People seem to think that we can shut down this virus... I think it would take putting everyone from about 16-35 in a coma for 6 months to halt it.
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turbodog
Flashaholic
If OK is like MS the state health dept required to the hospitals to keep 25% spare beds available. They recently activated their 'surge' plan which allows this reserve to be 10%. Also, if they stopped non-emergency surgery then beds will free up in a few days. So yes, beds can appear overnight. And these spare beds continue to fill.
Other countries that masked, distanced, and aggressively contact traced have been able to reopen and enjoy a lower infection rate than we have. But those are countries... not a collection of 50 states each with their own governor and health dept.
OK surge capacity: https://www.ok.gov/health/Prevention_and_Preparedness/Emergency_Preparedness_and_Response/Health_Care_Coalition_Partners/Surge_Capacity/index.html
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