iamlucky13
Flashlight Enthusiast
- Joined
- Oct 11, 2016
- Messages
- 1,139
Searching for old performance specs for the sake of a discussion elsewhere, I came across the following:
http://www.theledlight.com.cn/306-knowledge-ssl-led-roadmap-recommendations.html
It details a development roadmap published by Cree sometime around 2002. I knew it would be interesting to see how the predictions compared to reality, and was intrigued to note they actually came fairly close.
For example, regarding efficacy:
2002 Actual - 25 lm/W in 2002 (not much better than good halogen lights, and terrible compared to fluorescents)
2007 Target - 75 lm/W (not quite sure if they hit that)
2012 Target - 150 lm/W (I think the best emitters were just about there under ideal conditions)
2020 Target - 200 lm/W
Cost per 1000 lumens (a little bit more light than a 60W bulb):
2002 Actual - $200
2007 Target - $20
2012 Target - Less than $5
2020 Target - Less than $2 (I've already seen 800 lumen bulbs for $2)
Practically speaking, it seems they've been running just a little behind the targets, but they're pulling ahead on the cost per lumen figure. And these targets were for just the emitters, not complete lamps.
Hope you enjoy the look back and comparison to how far things have come.
http://www.theledlight.com.cn/306-knowledge-ssl-led-roadmap-recommendations.html
It details a development roadmap published by Cree sometime around 2002. I knew it would be interesting to see how the predictions compared to reality, and was intrigued to note they actually came fairly close.
For example, regarding efficacy:
2002 Actual - 25 lm/W in 2002 (not much better than good halogen lights, and terrible compared to fluorescents)
2007 Target - 75 lm/W (not quite sure if they hit that)
2012 Target - 150 lm/W (I think the best emitters were just about there under ideal conditions)
2020 Target - 200 lm/W
Cost per 1000 lumens (a little bit more light than a 60W bulb):
2002 Actual - $200
2007 Target - $20
2012 Target - Less than $5
2020 Target - Less than $2 (I've already seen 800 lumen bulbs for $2)
Practically speaking, it seems they've been running just a little behind the targets, but they're pulling ahead on the cost per lumen figure. And these targets were for just the emitters, not complete lamps.
Hope you enjoy the look back and comparison to how far things have come.