More EV negatives

[pnwoutdoors]

Thanks, but I was really trying establish weather or not we all recognized the same medium-term eventuality regarding EV adoption by mid-century.

I wouldn't say all recognize eventuality, here.

I don't know that it's "a lock" as to whether electricity will be the onboard "fuel" for vehicles, let alone within ~25yrs.

(My own personal vehicle, for example, will almost certainly outlast me. I suspect there are a billion or two people globally that'll be in the same position. Irrespective of what catfight exists over the wealth transfer away from fossil fuels.)

Far too much needs to be figured out, for it to be "a lock" just yet. What mix of the the originating fuels consumed (at the power plants) will be, for true fossil fuel reductions, and whether the fuel leak/burning capture can occur with much greater effectiveness. What electrical infrastructure changes must occur to handle vastly increased loads. What changes in battery chemistry must occur to reduce (even erase) the risk of bad fires from the things. What design changes must occur in batteries and charging tech to reduce (even erase) the poor operating performance and recharging performance inherent in the current designs. Whether a great percentage of smaller, better-designed nuclear gen plants can be crafted to take the place of such rapid removal of fossil fuel power-plant infrastructure, particularly in those places without much hydro, geothermal, solar, wind. And so forth. Lots to fix, only 25yrs. That is, quite literally, just around the corner.

Might well end up fully changed over, some day. Particularly if societies tolerate being forced by gov't to do so. Criminalize the existence of combustion engine tech in transportation vehicles (or make it so expensive as to be a non-option for everyone), then we'll get the "intended" result. I'd much prefer, though, to see a result occur because it's the best outcome on most levels, not merely because of political expediency and the prospect of such wealth-generating changes.

 

[Toulouse42]

I wouldn't say all recognize eventuality, here.

I don't know that it's "a lock" as to whether electricity will be the onboard "fuel" for vehicles, let alone within ~25yrs.

(My own personal vehicle, for example, will almost certainly outlast me. I suspect there are a billion or two people globally that'll be in the same position. Irrespective of what catfight exists over the wealth transfer away from fossil fuels.)

Far too much needs to be figured out, for it to be "a lock" just yet. What mix of the the originating fuels consumed (at the power plants) will be, for true fossil fuel reductions, and whether the fuel leak/burning capture can occur with much greater effectiveness. What electrical infrastructure changes must occur to handle vastly increased loads. What changes in battery chemistry must occur to reduce (even erase) the risk of bad fires from the things. What design changes must occur in batteries and charging tech to reduce (even erase) the poor operating performance and recharging performance inherent in the current designs. Whether a great percentage of smaller, better-designed nuclear gen plants can be crafted to take the place of such rapid removal of fossil fuel power-plant infrastructure, particularly in those places without much hydro, geothermal, solar, wind. And so forth. Lots to fix, only 25yrs. That is, quite literally, just around the corner.

Might well end up fully changed over, some day. Particularly if societies tolerate being forced by gov't to do so. Criminalize the existence of combustion engine tech in transportation vehicles (or make it so expensive as to be a non-option for everyone), then we'll get the "intended" result. I'd much prefer, though, to see a result occur because it's the best outcome on most levels, not merely because of political expediency and the prospect of such wealth-generating changes.

I agree but one thing bothers me a lot.

The many countries on earth cannot agree on what time of day it is let alone the many important other things that threaten humanity without dropping b*mbs on each other in order to change minds.

Nato is warning us that we will be at war with R*ssia within 20 years. Our UK government has repeated that warning at the same time that its running down our armed forces to the lowest level in 200 years. We have very little heavy industry left that could be converted to a war effort if needed. But someone else does!

The EU has spent years pi**ing all over us. I wouldn't trust them to tell me that the sun is shining.

And yet - the thing that they all agree on is Climate Change and Net Zero. It's almost as if someone or something more powerful than them has told them what to do.

Discuss.

 

[Guitar Guy]

Nato is warning us that we will be at war with R*ssia within 20 years. Our UK government has repeated that warning at the same time that its running down our armed forces to the lowest level in 200 years. We have very little heavy industry left that could be converted to a war effort if needed. But someone else does!

The EU has spent years pi**ing all over us. I wouldn't trust them to tell me that the sun is shining.

And yet - the thing that they all agree on is Climate Change and Net Zero. It's almost as if someone or something more powerful than them has told them what to do.

Discuss.

A little off the EV subject, but in response to @Toulouse42 - To your last sentence, more money is likely being passed around "off the books" than "on the books". Billions of Pentagon $$ and foreign aid $$ have gone unaccounted for, or magically "misplaced", with NO accountability.

As a Realtor, I will say this. The USofA is a prime piece of Real Estate. Farm property, beautiful National Parks, gorgeous beach front resort areas on both coasts, mountainous hunting grounds, wonderful fishing lakes, excellent fresh water supplies ... things that many countries have little to none of. Everybody wants it.

Why is this important? Because as we purge our military of the rough & tough patriots that many of our uncles and grandfathers were, while turning it into a woke group of individuals who are studying DEI and transgenderism, we are literally importing an ARMY of military aged men across both the southern and northern borders from over 100 countries EVERY DAY - many of them from countries who hate us, and many whom we have zero idea who they are or where they are from. They're not just women and children seeking asylum as we were once told. Just research the spike in crime, while police officers and border patrol agents are restrained from doing their jobs.

I truly think we are setting ourselves up for some type of coordinated attack on our own soil that will be much worse than 9/11/2001, sooner than later. For just one of many ways, our power grid and internet are extremely vulnerable, and several months or more without them would be devastating, and many would perish. Remember, it only took 19 terrorists to bring down the towers and kill 3000 Americans. They don't play fair. I pray that we can turn it around.

 

[Toulouse42]

Have you read the book "One Second After" by William Forstchen? I don't recall whether it's in the afterword or in a separate interview, he estimated that in the event of an EMP attack or similar, about 90% of the population would die within a year. I can't check as I gave the book to a friend. I can't even watch TV nowadays without the internet. Even our new tumble dryer is wireless enabled. (WTF?). We as a western world are more vulnerable than ever before to hostile acts. Anyone who thinks that we have friends out there is sadly mistaken.

Let me tell you a little story about preparedness. My father was a teenager in occupied France during WW2. He recalls that one day lorries were carrying "reserve troops" to the front. Even at age 15/16 my father observed that they had no uniforms or weapons!!

In Britain in 1938 only Winston Churchill and a few others thought that the nice german fella might be a problem. Yet within a year we were at war.

I firmly believe in the Roman saying "Si vis pacem, parabellum".

I can't speak for the US but we in Europe are woefully unprepared for war but spend a lot of time mouthing off to our enemies. We have become that worst of things - Rich and Weak. I'm too old to be called up but I have children and grandchildren who might. I weep for the spineless stupidity of our leaders.

 

[Buff]

We need a Churchill unfortunately we are stuck with Chamberlain?
I feel i have read a novel here. I have enjoyed the very civilized conversation here and many good points (whether i agree with or not) have been put forward to stimulate my gray mater.
Thanks again for keeping it civil.

 

[Jean-Luc Descarte]

There will be no war with Russia as you all are imagining it. It'll be a 70-30 proportion of destruction within 30 minutes, at best.

The only war that is likely to happen is between Western European nations. And maybe between Algeria and France.

 

[bykfixer]

@Toulouse42: follow the money. That's where the answer is.

All this talk about billionaires like Gates and Musk? They're nothing compared to some most have never heard of. Those people's bank accounts don't yield most of their resources. The control they have is where the real money is.

And if you look back at history and how a number of tyrants got into power, it was because they pretended to be Santa Clause to a sleeping electorate. Between that and dividing them through class warfare and politics it works like a charm. The west is ripe for that today. Covid was the first test. And it worked better than expected.

 

[Mister Ed]

Come on, folks, I've been nice about the politics.

 

[raggie33]

Come on, folks, I've been nice about the politics.

i dont envy ya job . but im thankfull for your forum and your work

 

[alpg88]

2050 isn't so far away, in early 2000s hybrids were trending, and we thought most cars will be hybrids in 30 years, well, we are here almost 30 years later, hybrids do not sell well outside fleets.
BTW here in NY gas prices are dropping, i filled up today in nyc 2.94 a gallon, have not seen such prices in years, thou i'm a member, if i was not price would be 3.04

 

[iacchus]

The amount on nickel, molybdenum, copper, and lithium needed to fully transition away from ICE is just not within our grasp at this point. Not just how much of it is in the ground, but the scale at which we'd have to get it out of the ground. We would have to increase mining production by an order of magnitude, and thats just not going to happen. Humanity has never so much as doubled the production of any industrial material within a decade. At least not since the industrial revolution, when scale really started to matter.

We are much farther away from a transition than many would have us believe. Thats before we even talk infrastructure to allow for the charging.
Unless we have some major technological breakthroughs, I just don't see it happening even within my kid's lifetime.

 

[mrfixitman]

Besides the lack of gasoline cost, is there any positives?

No oil changes. No tune ups. Fueling in 10 seconds of your time, in the comfort of your home. Plugin before bed. Unplug when you leave in the morning. One speed. Kids learn to drive easier. Pin based power level....so your kid can't hot rod. Clean air. Simpler, so less repairs. Better performance. Safer. Model Y and 3 best selling world cars. Parts will be available and cheap. I know people, who drive a lot who have paid for the loan with gas savings. Quiet.

 

[mrfixitman]

The amount on nickel, molybdenum, copper, and lithium needed to fully transition away from ICE is just not within our grasp at this point. Not just how much of it is in the ground, but the scale at which we'd have to get it out of the ground. We would have to increase mining production by an order of magnitude, and thats just not going to happen. Humanity has never so much as doubled the production of any industrial material within a decade. At least not since the industrial revolution, when scale really started to matter.

We are much farther away from a transition than many would have us believe. Thats before we even talk infrastructure to allow for the charging.
Unless we have some major technological breakthroughs, I just don't see it happening even within my kid's lifetime.

You are regurgitating what you have heard. The truth is in this country alone we could supply the world with lithium. If we are not making ICE, those resources will go electric. During WWII Annual economic production, as measured by the Gross National Product (GNP), more than doubled, rising from $99.7 billion in 1940 to nearly $212 billion in 1945. I have transitioned. If you want to, you can.

 

[mrfixitman]

I did math on road taxes before in other thread, about 600 a year, based on 12000mi a year. They should charge 600 more a year for registration fees for EV,

That is on a specific usage. People driving less will be hurt. People who drive more skate. Simple mileage based. Like your insurance company does.

 

[mrfixitman]

A

They never removed lead from gasoline. They just required big oil to stop adding it.

My pop used to chuckle at folks pulling up to the 'no lead' pump and paying 20 cents more per gallon. He'd say "I suppose they don't know it actually costs less to produce since they don't add the lead". "PT Barnum was right, a sucker is born everyday" he'd say.

Lead was added as a lubricant for moving parts. It's why a lot of vintage cars engines began to smoke unless they added a bottle of lead treatment with each fill up or had the valve guides replaced. I used STP oil treatment for the molybdlendum that also did the same thing. Great stuff for pre-catalytic convertor engines. The moly clogs up a convertor like bacon grease down the kitchen sink drain.

another detail you can forget with EVs.

 

[mrfixitman]

I wouldn't say all recognize eventuality, here.

I don't know that it's "a lock" as to whether electricity will be the onboard "fuel" for vehicles, let alone within ~25yrs.

(My own personal vehicle, for example, will almost certainly outlast me. I suspect there are a billion or two people globally that'll be in the same position. Irrespective of what catfight exists over the wealth transfer away from fossil fuels.)

Far too much needs to be figured out, for it to be "a lock" just yet. What mix of the the originating fuels consumed (at the power plants) will be, for true fossil fuel reductions, and whether the fuel leak/burning capture can occur with much greater effectiveness. What electrical infrastructure changes must occur to handle vastly increased loads. What changes in battery chemistry must occur to reduce (even erase) the risk of bad fires from the things. What design changes must occur in batteries and charging tech to reduce (even erase) the poor operating performance and recharging performance inherent in the current designs. Whether a great percentage of smaller, better-designed nuclear gen plants can be crafted to take the place of such rapid removal of fossil fuel power-plant infrastructure, particularly in those places without much hydro, geothermal, solar, wind. And so forth. Lots to fix, only 25yrs. That is, quite literally, just around the corner.

Might well end up fully changed over, some day. Particularly if societies tolerate being forced by gov't to do so. Criminalize the existence of combustion engine tech in transportation vehicles (or make it so expensive as to be a non-option for everyone), then we'll get the "intended" result. I'd much prefer, though, to see a result occur because it's the best outcome on most levels, not merely because of political expediency and the prospect of such wealth-generating changes.

Nokia, Kodak. Beta tape. Should I go on. Cheaper, better and faster always wins. Usually cheaper. Cheap Tesla and Chinese vehicles are coming. Ford, GM Toyota.... Bankruptcies. All your above concerns are being addressed now in the free market. There are gobs of money to be made. Musk is the richest man now with average priced cars. Just wait till he Henry Fords it with cheap Evs.

 

[raggie33]

ladys and gentleman we will never agree lol. ima course pro EV but i a course belive in fredoom of choice you like ice buy ice you like ev buy ev. but you all rock and are great humans and im a ok robot

 

[alpg88]

The many countries on earth cannot agree on what time of day it is .........

OF course they agree, every country agrees that noon, aka 12pm, aka 12.00 is when sun if right above, it just happens at different time in different places on earth. thus time zones.
The reason i pointing out this minor thing, there is a difference agreeing to factual events, cuz disagreeing would be contradicting facts and science, and there is agreeing to subjective thing like estimates, prognosis that one group of people looking from one perspective, and other from a different one, some ignore reality and science, others ignore subjective concepts, The whole EV debate seems to be one side is ignoring and dismissing reality in favor of subjective concepts.

 

[mrfixitman]

Have you read the book "One Second After" by William Forstchen? I don't recall whether it's in the afterword or in a separate interview, he estimated that in the event of an EMP attack or similar, about 90% of the population would die within a year. I can't check as I gave the book to a friend. I can't even watch TV nowadays without the internet. Even our new tumble dryer is wireless enabled. (WTF?). We as a western world are more vulnerable than ever before to hostile acts. Anyone who thinks that we have friends out there is sadly mistaken.

Let me tell you a little story about preparedness. My father was a teenager in occupied France during WW2. He recalls that one day lorries were carrying "reserve troops" to the front. Even at age 15/16 my father observed that they had no uniforms or weapons!!

In Britain in 1938 only Winston Churchill and a few others thought that the nice german fella might be a problem. Yet within a year we were at war.

I firmly believe in the Roman saying "Si vis pacem, parabellum".

I can't speak for the US but we in Europe are woefully unprepared for war but spend a lot of time mouthing off to our enemies. We have become that worst of things - Rich and Weak. I'm too old to be called up but I have children and grandchildren who might. I weep for the spineless stupidity of our leaders.

Hook up your TV antenna. Learn how to use short wave. CB radio or HAM.

 

[Dave D]

I follow a channel on Youtube called 'Harry's Garage', it's run by Harry Metcalfe who was the Editor of EVO magazine and he's been running EV's and Hybrids over the past few years and he has gone back to a diesel. It's uk based but gives a good oversight of issues regarding EV ownership including depreciation etc.

I'm back in a diesel after 4yrs running both EV & PHEV. What needs to change to get me to go back?