The LED future

[taclightning]

Fist of all, I am not technical, not even close to many of the skilled members in here.
But I have been wondering, where would the LED flashlight be in, say 5 years from now.

No one can say for sure, but based on your experience with the development the last decade, what do you think we might find in the very near future? Performance (raw lumen), battery, size and perhaps UI additions/changes?

 

[twl]

Hard to say, but the way things have been developing in LEDs, we see advances every year or two, so I think we'll be seeing things that are 25%-50% more powerful than we have now. Perhaps more.

 

[wrf]

I would like to see a native white LED. Not a RGB combo, not a phosphor derived light, but a real broad spectrum LED. I don't think it will happen though -- it's just not in the nature of LEDs it appears.

It took decades to go from a dim red indicator LED to a power class blue LED, but all we are doing now is using it to illuminate phosphor -- just like old flourescent tube technology.

Improvements we have seen over the years since are great, but most represent refinement of the base technologies rather than giant leaps of new discoveries.

 

[beach honda]

You may have better luck in the led forum
http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?91-LED

 

[taclightning]

I say 1200 otf lumens on a single 18650 light - within 2 years - and further out I see app's that monitor your powerlevels on all your battery equipment.

 

[SimulatedZero]

To be honest I see a chance for a couple major advancements but, not that many really. Something may come in and rock the industry but, I'm not expecting anything that major. What I do expect over the next few years is to continue to see cheap, easy lumens that run cooler and have a higher CRI. That means a single AA light that will probably hit 200 lumens with good runtime and heat dissipation with 95+ CRI within the next few years. I would also expect a light like that to be around 50$.

The biggest improvement I am expecting is efficiency. I think we will begin to see lights that have longer, COOLER runtimes. Something that would allow for higher levels of light in a P60 host without frying itself. That could mean something like a Malkoff Wildcat without having to worry about the heat.

Another big improvement I think you'll see is in the color rendering department. I think more 90+ CRI lights at a neutral 4500k tint will be available and that we might even have a decent amount of 100 CRI lights. To me that would be a big bump for LED's. Put a full 100 CRI in a neutral tint and you will quite literally have sunlight in your hand (minus most of the UV).

It will be interesting to see what kind of other developments take place over the next few years.

 

[waywardgeek]

They do continue to improve LED efficiency, but another trend is they just keep making them bigger. That works out for house lighting, but for a flashlight with a given size reflector, all increasing the LED size does is increase the hotspot size. It doesn't tend to increase throw. The XP-G series is pretty tiny, and works out well for the AAA flashlights (Fenix LD01, Klasus MiX6) up to the tactical (Fenix PD32). If you go to a bigger LED, like the XM-L, you can drive more lumens, but unless you increase the reflector area by 2X, your beam degrades. So, I think we'll see incremental progress, 10% - 20% per year sort of thing, for a given LED size.

I see the real revolution in house and corporate lighting. You can buy a Cree XM-L LED which is equivalent to a 100 watt light bulb for $3. It's 2X more efficient than florescent, a nice color, and essentially never needs to be replaced. The problem is in the drive electronics. Your house is wired for 120V AC, but these LEDs run on 3-4V DC. Most of the cost and reliability problems are in the power conversion circuits.

If we started wiring houses with 12V DC, just for lighting, we could have a central power converter that we pay for once, and which is easily replaced if it fails. Since the lighting is 10X more efficient, we wont need thicker wires to run 12V rather than 120V. Converting from regulated 12V DC to the desired LED current is way cheaper than converting from 120V AC unregulated power.

 

[t76turbo]

Just got my first two zebra lights. Sc600 and a h600. I really like them both.

 

[luceat lux vestra]

I say 1200 otf lumens on a single 18650 light - within 2 years - and further out I see app's that monitor your powerlevels on all your battery equipment.

You can do that now.. ya know surefire 6p bored to 18mm with a kenji quad drop-in gets you 1800 lumens

Five years from know we might be looking at 5000 lumens off one 18650

 

[wfturnerm4]

They do continue to improve LED efficiency, but another trend is they just keep making them bigger. That works out for house lighting, but for a flashlight with a given size reflector, all increasing the LED size does is increase the hotspot size. It doesn't tend to increase throw. The XP-G series is pretty tiny, and works out well for the AAA flashlights (Fenix LD01, Klasus MiX6) up to the tactical (Fenix PD32). If you go to a bigger LED, like the XM-L, you can drive more lumens, but unless you increase the reflector area by 2X, your beam degrades. So, I think we'll see incremental progress, 10% - 20% per year sort of thing, for a given LED size.

I see the real revolution in house and corporate lighting. You can buy a Cree XM-L LED which is equivalent to a 100 watt light bulb for $3. It's 2X more efficient than florescent, a nice color, and essentially never needs to be replaced. The problem is in the drive electronics. Your house is wired for 120V AC, but these LEDs run on 3-4V DC. Most of the cost and reliability problems are in the power conversion circuits.

If we started wiring houses with 12V DC, just for lighting, we could have a central power converter that we pay for once, and which is easily replaced if it fails. Since the lighting is 10X more efficient, we wont need thicker wires to run 12V rather than 120V. Converting from regulated 12V DC to the desired LED current is way cheaper than converting from 120V AC unregulated power.

Very astute observations, I concur.

 

[taclightning]

That means a single AA light that will probably hit 200 lumens with good runtime and heat dissipation with 95+ CRI within the next few years. I would also expect a light like that to be around 50$.

This seems very plausible, and would be great for the EDC - I think there will be a certain point here improvements have to come from the powersource.

I see the real revolution in house and corporate lighting. You can buy a Cree XM-L LED which is equivalent to a 100 watt light bulb for $3. It's 2X more efficient than florescent, a nice color, and essentially never needs to be replaced. The problem is in the drive electronics. Your house is wired for 120V AC, but these LEDs run on 3-4V DC. Most of the cost and reliability problems are in the power conversion circuits.

If we started wiring houses with 12V DC, just for lighting, we could have a central power converter that we pay for once, and which is easily replaced if it fails. Since the lighting is 10X more efficient, we wont need thicker wires to run 12V rather than 120V. Converting from regulated 12V DC to the desired LED current is way cheaper than converting from 120V AC unregulated power.

This is VERY interesting, and would reduce the firehasards of higher voltage. But 3$ for a 100 watt equivalent??.. wow .. cheap. They are like 5-6$ here at least.

You can do that now.. ya know surefire 6p bored to 18mm with a kenji quad drop-in gets you 1800 lumens

Five years from know we might be looking at 5000 lumens off one 18650

Damn.... but it is with a quad drop - I am thinking more like 1 led. Is there a link to that mod you mentioned in here? - it's quite cool.:huh:

 

[Overclocker]

continuous incremental improvements in LED and battery tech

flashlights with bluetooth to allow configuration via phone app. remote on/off and mode selection. remote fuel gauge. etc

inductive charging

flashlights with GPS loggers

DIY 3d printed flashlights

forced air convection cooling

heatpipes

ultracompact watercooling

last and not least, variable geometry reflectors

 

[taclightning]

continuous incremental improvements in LED and battery tech

flashlights with bluetooth to allow configuration via phone app. remote on/off and mode selection. remote fuel gauge. etc

inductive charging

flashlights with GPS loggers

DIY 3d printed flashlights

forced air convection cooling

heatpipes

ultracompact watercooling

last and not least, variable geometry reflectors

Good thoughts, I see that Bluetooth option as well. Could be cool to monitor for flashlights on an app. Or even activate them.
I can't see other than passive cooling though, for many practical reasons.
But woooooooo... variable geometry reflectors.. nice indeed. I wonder how that would look like, or work even.

 

[luceat lux vestra]

Damn.... but it is with a quad drop - I am thinking more like 1 led. Is there a link to that mod you mentioned in here? - it's quite cool.:huh:

Here you go!!


http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/showthread.php?306347-quot-A-Floody-Floody-Night-quot

A kenji quad dropin is four leds in direct drive mode.

 

[taclightning]

Here you go!!


http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/showthread.php?306347-quot-A-Floody-Floody-Night-quot

A kenji quad dropin is four leds in direct drive mode.

Wooo I wanna make one!!! - Hope it doesn't melt down.

 

[luceat lux vestra]

Yeah I know, something about that much power coming out of a light you can hide in your hand

awww... I almost shorted out my keyboard :sick2:

 

[waywardgeek]

This is VERY interesting, and would reduce the firehasards of higher voltage. But 3$ for a 100 watt equivalent??.. wow .. cheap. They are like 5-6$ here at least.

You can get a random Cree XM-L for $3.60 here. You just have to order 1,000 of them

 

[Norm]

If we started wiring houses with 12V DC, just for lighting, we could have a central power converter that we pay for once, and which is easily replaced if it fails. Since the lighting is 10X more efficient, we wont need thicker wires to run 12V rather than 120V. Converting from regulated 12V DC to the desired LED current is way cheaper than converting from 120V AC unregulated power.

We would need to use big fat expensive copper cables to minimise, distribution losses, 12V is probably the most inefficient way to wire a house unless of course we choose a lower Voltage.

This thread maybe of interest Low voltage wiring in a school building.

Norm

 

[egrep]

Only just joined and with ten posts under your belt you're sounding like a engineer who works in the lighting industry. Or an armchair critic channeling Nikola Tesla? Just kidding.

Can you share with us anything about your lighting (or other) engineering projects where you've worked with these types of systems and components? Some real world application and experience would be priceless. Share with us, please!

They do continue to...

 

[HighlanderNorth]

I'm hoping in 50 years or so, they will come up with something like, maybe a hollow glass globe, with a type of wire coil that runs though it, which heats up and glows providing light. Maybe they could find a way to suck all the air out too, so the wire coil will last longer and not burn out. But thats probably just a pipe dream! LOL

Seriously I think they will really have to find a better way to shed the heat from LED's on higher settings in some of the small to mid sized lights, or else they will not be able to make them much brighter unless they find a way to produce LED's that dont run so hot. In the mean time I think they will probably make modest brightness gains and modest efficiency improvements.