Will we produce enough energy again where incans will come back in style?

[ampdude]

I'm wondering, with the way technology goes, will we produce the batteries in the future that will power incans to the point where efficiency of LED or other light sources doesn't really matter anymore? We always seem to produce more and more energy and do it more efficiently. Seems like at some point it won't even be a worry anymore. I still rock mostly incans with the old tech we have now. But then by that point, the market won't be geared up for incans anymore... that sucks.

 

[bykfixer]

In case you hadn't noticed, the market is already not geared up for incan....
I've hardly ever avoided using an incan light because of the runtime, it's usually a concern the bulb will blow. So I bought enough light bulbs to last a while.

 

[Olumin]

Same here. More worried about blown bulbs than battery life. Advantages in throw & colour rendering will eventually be overcome. The only lasting advantage I can see is that bulbs don't overheat like LEDs do. That is useful in things like searchlights or certain military/industrial applications, where HIDs are still currently used, although usually connected to mains power or a vehicle powerplant. LEP matches or exceeds the throw of HIDs & don't face overheating problems due to comparatively low lumen outputs, but they do not match the field of view as the beam is very narrow with next to no spill.

Of course there's also the issue with dimming. You can get lower output on a incan light by simply dimming the bulb but that will also decrease the CCT. There's no good consistent way to archive multi-mode incans apart from using multiple bulbs, like the Surefire 9N for example.

I love incans, but realistically LEDs are simply far more versatile, durable & long lasting. I don't see incan bulbs having any real world advantage that would be significant to the average civilian user, apart from nostalgia. The incan I use most is a modified 3C mag running a conservative 10W halogen on 2x 21700s. I got dozens of those bulbs so Im not too concerned for now.

 

[snakebite]

Dont care when camping at the remote garage.
And we do everything with solar.
If you dont know how to swap a bulb in a light or load nicads in a solar charger you dont belong in our group!
Led flashlights seldom get used out there.

 

[jtr1962]

In a hypothetical future where energy is cheap enough that we no longer need to care about efficiency, other concerns will dominate. For me the issue with incans (besides their light color which I find way too warm for my tastes) is their relatively short life span. Tens of hours at best for a flashlight, maybe 750 hours for a decent general lighting lamp (those "long-life" lamps are too orangey and lousy from a light quality standpoint to be worth it). Even if they made what I thought was perfect light I still wouldn't want to use them for lifespan reasons. That's really what started the ball rolling with LED. In the beginning they were no more efficient than halogen lamps, but they lasted tens or hundreds of thousands of hours (I still have a 2004 Luxeon which has been running 24/7). That made them attractive for lots of uses where incans were hard to change. Once their cost went down, combined with higher efficiencies, the writing was on the wall. I'm dubious incans will ever return at scale no matter what happens with energy generation. LEDs just last longer. Nowadays you can even match incan spectrum nearly perfectly with LED, while still using a fraction of the power.

 

[snakebite]

Good xenon bulbs driven conservatively run 5 or 6 battery changes on 6ah d nimh.
Thats 2 or more years of use.
There is a 4d table lamp out there with 60 or more hours on its 4 cell mag whitestar.
And its fresh each night because a solar panel tops it during the day.
Lifetime is a non issue unless you like to push to the edge.
If i need lots of light i fire up(literally) a aladdin or a coleman!

 

[Burgess]

And let's not forget
how incans have a nasty habit
of Darkening with Age !
< sigh >

 

[jtr1962]

Good xenon bulbs driven conservatively run 5 or 6 battery changes on 6ah d nimh.
Thats 2 or more years of use.
There is a 4d table lamp out there with 60 or more hours on its 4 cell mag whitestar.
And its fresh each night because a solar panel tops it during the day.
Lifetime is a non issue unless you like to push to the edge.
If i need lots of light i fire up(literally) a aladdin or a coleman!

But the kicker is they can go suddenly without warning, especially in a high shock or vibration environment. I remember halogen bulbs in a bike light I had. If they lasted 10 hours in service, it was a lot. Sometimes a new one failed after you hit a big pothole. I converted that light to LEDs back when all you had was 5mm whites. When power LEDs came along, I upgraded it further. Nice only needing to worry about the state of battery charge, rather than also worrying if the bulb will last the ride.

 

[DRW]

I'm wondering, with the way technology goes, will we produce the batteries in the future that will power incans to the point where efficiency of LED or other light sources doesn't really matter anymore?

No, I don't think there will be much if any market going forward.

 

[aleiby]

I would expect led tech to advance to where incandescent bulbs can be sufficiently imitated before battery tech to power them advances to the point where inefficiencies no longer matter.

Whenever incandescent longevity comes up I'm always reminded of the centennial bulb:

Centennial Light - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And of course the Phoebus cartel:

Phoebus cartel - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ampdude]

I'm kind of the opposite. I rarely have bulbs fail on me, so I don't really think about it. I mostly worry about running out of juice at crucial times, that's why I tend to have a lot of spare batteries on me or around.

 

[Lumen83]

I would love that but this is a political issue and incan lovers are on the losing side of it. Furthermore, battery life isn't the only problem compared to LED. Bulb life, ruggedness, and therefore reliability are also big hurdles. I don't see it happening. And I am writing this while carrying a 6P in my pants pocket.

 

[Stress_Test]

I envision that incan lights (any variety) will become a niche market, kind of like carburetors for car enthusiasts. A new vehicle hasn't come with a carburetor since something like 1985 (I think), but you can still buy a carb and run it on your older or non-emissions tested vehicle.

For the vast majority of users, fuel-injection a no-brainer. For those who like to tinker and don't mind the disadvantages of a carb, they are still out there and can be used if you want.

That's how I image incan bulbs will become / have become.

 

[Olumin]

If that scenario ever becomes reality Id hope they do more useful things with it like wireless energy distribution (which would make batteries largely obsolete) or fully electric plasma jet engines. Electromagnetic heat shields & radiation protection for spacecraft. You could even wirelessly send energy to near earth space stations or protect vital infrastructure from powerful solar storms or EMPs through electromagnetic shields. All incredibly energy inefficient, so sadly impossible with current energy storage tech & portable power plants.

 

[ampdude]

I would love that but this is a political issue

How the heck is this a political issue, unless you're trying to make it into one. I just about threw up laughing so hard at that comment.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

No. There are too many politicians in government that want to control your thermostat, your light switch, ban backup generators so you can't escape their control, and force you into an electric car that they want to track so they can charge you a mileage tax. I don't see incandescents coming back even if we have excess power in the future. We have too many politicians on a power trip. They wouldn't allow it.

 

[jtr1962]

There's no reason for them to come back because the market decided it doesn't want them. At this point LEDs last far longer, use far less power, and cost less than decent incans used to. CRTs disappeared in favor of flat screens for similar reasons. Sometimes there's no government conspiracy. Things are just replaced by something which is superior in some or all areas.

 

[bykfixer]

There's no reason for them to come back because the market decided it doesn't want them. At this point LEDs last far longer, use far less power, and cost less than decent incans used to. CRTs disappeared in favor of flat screens for similar reasons. Sometimes there's no government conspiracy. Things are just replaced by something which is superior in some or all areas.

Agreed.
I am glad however you said "superior in some". Heck, you might even think "all" areas and that's ok. I'm just not ready to say "all areas" yet. Same as the horse and buggy has not yet been proven to be a completely obsolete form of transportation.

 

[jtr1962]

Agreed.
I am glad however you said "superior in some". Heck, you might even think "all" areas and that's ok. I'm just not ready to say "all areas" yet. Same as the horse and buggy has not yet been proven to be a completely obsolete form of transportation.

Yes, exactly. Very rarely are new things superior in ALL areas. They just need to be superior in enough areas to supplant prior technology. Interestingly, this rarely means the prior technology disappears completely. For example, I'm a big fan of EVs, and as their development continues they'll likely be superior by most metrics to what they replace for the vast majority of users. However, this doesn't mean ICEs won't continue to have niche uses for a long time, just as the horse and buggy still sometimes does. As another example, a few months ago I was surprised to learn that typewriters are still being made. What led me to this knowledge was when I cleaned up one of our old typewriters that was damaged in the basement flood from hurricane Ida. So just for kicks I was curious if such machines are only available used, or are still being manufactured. Turns out they are. Then you have vinyl records, which most thought were history after CDs came out. Incans will be around for a long time as a niche thing I'm sure.

 

[bykfixer]

I just bought some flashlight bulbs last week.