Coronavirus - II

[scout24]

Nobody is arguing. And you've proven my point nicely. Thank you. :rolleyes:

 

[StarHalo]

Our local communities are lobbying the governor with novel ideas on how to allow some outdoor activities to re-open (as many were closed for winter anyway) while allowing certain safety procedures to be incorparated.

This should be the goal; people working with their government to find logical compromises to work within safety guidelines. The "let's just go back to how it was" approach based on calendar dates and not science will leave us all in an unfavorable position.

 

[knucklegary]

Star.. Has any of your Amz co workers ever tried strangling you with their bare hands

Rhetorically speaking :whoopin:

 

[bigburly912]

Star.. Has any of your Amz co workers ever tried strangling you with their bare hands

Rhetorically speaking :whoopin:

Now now

 

[mightysparrow]

Here's the article about the violent sex offenders released by court order against the wishes of law enforcement: https://abc7news.com/orange-county-sex-offenders-crime-jail/6138210

Here's an article about someone suspected of assault, being brought to jail by a park ranger, then escaped and shot to death by police: https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/l...tody/509-ca96ea85-fbfe-4abe-9f6c-0e93ef5f1121

Either there is more to the story than that article, or the police are tired of catching and releasing criminals that are trying to hurt people. Be careful out there. It's turning into the wild west.

Hmmm. There will always be prisoners released who turn around and commit more crimes. We can’t afford to keep people in prison forever, after all, and the idea of punishment in a constitutional republic is based on proportionate punishment depending on the crime, and the defendant’s record. Cruel and unusual punishments are specifically banned by the constitution.

As for the frustration of officers, I can only speak from 20 years of working directly with officers in my job in the prosecutor’s office. I am very familiar with the frustration of officers when we constantly “no paper” their arrests/lockup’s or reduce the charges. But we have a constitution at the local and federal level that says the police have to meet the burden of proof to have the arrestee charged with a particular crime. And the state has to be held to an even higher standard to protect everyone’s rights as we try to get justice for victims and the community. It’s been my experience that the majority of officers appreciate the requirements placed on them to meet the legal standards we hold them to, because they know the arrestee will ultimately be convicted if they make a good arrest with the arrest charges proven without a doubt.

Aside from that, assault is a low level misdemeanor. Running from a simple assault charge is bizarre. Where I live and work, you can be convicted of assault many times and only get probation. Nobody goes to prison for an assault conviction. Shooting the guy is also strange. That is going to be a problem for the officers involved, unless the guy was endangering their lives in some way, before he was shot.

Finally, in the a United States, the police don’t determine how much prison time or other punishments are imposed on people convicted of crimes. The punishments or other remedies (drug treatment, community service, etc) are determined by the legislative bodies and the court system, often in consultation with experts.

 

[bykfixer]

Thanks for doing what you do sparrow. (saluting)

 

[bykfixer]

Star.. Has any of your Amz co workers ever tried strangling you with their bare hands

Rhetorically speaking :whoopin:

Clean up on aisle 4. I just sprayed gatorade all over my coffee table.
Thanks for the laugh.

 

[PhotonWrangler]

Is It Time To Quarantine Junk Food? | Dr. Mark Cucuzzella 4-16-20

Ep73 – Vitamin D Status and Viral Interactions…The Science 4-27-20

Thank you for posting the story on Vitamin D. This is the second story I've seen about it, and there does appear to be something interesting going on here.

 

[knucklegary]

Byk, hate to admit it but i am tuning in to read Star, as well other members contribution to this thread.. But without Star it wouldn't be as much fun!
Take care :popcorn:

 

[Poppy]

We are presented with different graphs pertaining to the covid-19 virus.
Although they give a pictorial representation of what is going on, they rarely give a complete picture. Actually a number of graphs overlaid are necessary to look at, but they are NOT usually presented. Not even separately so that one could do an analysis himself.

A not too meaningful graph is the never ending graph of total number of cases. It will always continue to go up. (Please cut me slack for the use of the adjective Always)
One that would be a little more meaningful would be one that showed the number of cases that are "active" Meaning, the total of cases, with the number of resolved cases subtracted. (Maybe they don't know when a case is resolved).

There are more tests available now than initially, and the protocols for who is eligible to be tested has changed over time. Originally only those who his/her doctor thought, most likely had the virus (fever, dry cough, difficulty breathing) were permitted to go get tested. As a result, a very high percentage tested positive. Certainly there were many who contracted the disease, but did not progress to "Difficulty breathing" and did not get tested. Since those people are not on any charts/graphs, they are not included in any calculations. I suppose other than to be counted as a member of the general populace NOT infected.
Now that testing is more available, and the protocols have loosened, more people who are less symptomatic, are being tested. Initially in my community, 80% of those tested, tested positive, now... only 41% test positive. That says to me that the numbers of positive cases on the graphs should have been higher initially, because more less severe symptomatic people who had the disease would have been tested, and would have tested positive, but the tests weren't available.

So when I see an increase in positive cases today, I can't very well compare it to the positive cases of last week, or two weeks ago. Also, now it might be helpful to have a break-down of the severity of the symptoms and graph that.

So much to know... so little information offered.

In this time of stress, let's give consolation when it is needed, and whenever possible speak in the positive.

Here's to Love to my CPF friends! :)

 

[Greta]

You're repeating the same counterpoints because you're not correctly interpreting the graphs. If the number of total cases is increasing, then it's not flattening. If the national new cases is increasing, then it's accelerating, which is especially true if stay at home is lifted. Putting these two data points together means it will not go down, that is not favorable.

:wtf: - you do realize that by this logic, each new case... even if it's just one next year... means it's accelerating.. right? And by that logic, it will ALWAYS accelerate. Scout is correct - there is a huge difference between the words "increase" and "accelerate". Let's go to the dictionary, shall we?

in·crease

verb
/inˈkrēs/

• become or make greater in size, amount, intensity, or degree.
  
  noun
  /ˈinkrēs/
  • an instance of growing or making greater.

ac·cel·er·ate

/əkˈseləˌrāt/

verb

• (of a vehicle or other physical object) begin to move more quickly.
  • PHYSICS
    undergo a change in velocity.
    
    
    Do you see it now? It may seem like it is simply a case of semantics but it is not. Both mean movement. But one clearly relates to the speed of movement rather than just plain old movement. You used the wrong word, SH. And it makes your whole argument invalid.

 

[Poppy]

Said another way...
Equation for Acceleration
Another formula, acceleration (a) equals change in velocity (Δv) divided by change in time (Δt), calculates the rate of change in velocity over time. This formula may be written a = Δv ÷ Δt.
--------------------------------

In the graph that you SH presented, the change of the (increase of number of people testing positive) Divided by Time for the past two weeks has decreased compared to the previous two weeks. Therefore you have a negative acceleration, Otherwise known as Deceleration.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

Hmmm. There will always be prisoners released who turn around and commit more crimes. We can’t afford to keep people in prison forever, after all, and the idea of punishment in a constitutional republic is based on proportionate punishment depending on the crime, and the defendant’s record. Cruel and unusual punishments are specifically banned by the constitution.

As for the frustration of officers, I can only speak from 20 years of working directly with officers in my job in the prosecutor’s office. I am very familiar with the frustration of officers when we constantly “no paper” their arrests/lockup’s or reduce the charges. But we have a constitution at the local and federal level that says the police have to meet the burden of proof to have the arrestee charged with a particular crime. And the state has to be held to an even higher standard to protect everyone’s rights as we try to get justice for victims and the community. It’s been my experience that the majority of officers appreciate the requirements placed on them to meet the legal standards we hold them to, because they know the arrestee will ultimately be convicted if they make a good arrest with the arrest charges proven without a doubt.

Aside from that, assault is a low level misdemeanor. Running from a simple assault charge is bizarre. Where I live and work, you can be convicted of assault many times and only get probation. Nobody goes to prison for an assault conviction. Shooting the guy is also strange. That is going to be a problem for the officers involved, unless the guy was endangering their lives in some way, before he was shot.

Finally, in the a United States, the police don’t determine how much prison time or other punishments are imposed on people convicted of crimes. The punishments or other remedies (drug treatment, community service, etc) are determined by the legislative bodies and the court system, often in consultation with experts.

I know how things are supposed to work under our form of government. However, when you close the court houses and release the criminals right after they are arrested (including the violent repeat offenders) something's got to give. Either the people will take matters into their own hands, the police will do the same breaking the law to protect the people, or the criminals will have free reign to hurt people. I'm not saying it's right. I'm not saying I'm okay with it. I'm saying it's happening and we should be prepared for it. The police and our government do not have the resources to protect the people so drastic measures are going to be taken to attempt to keep people in line. I think the constitution went out the window when they released criminals while ordering law abiding citizens to stay in their homes and telling some that they couldn't provide for their families while others could.

 

[StarHalo]

Do you see it now? It may seem like it is simply a case of semantics but it is not. Both mean movement. But one clearly relates to the speed of movement rather than just plain old movement.

The goal is a death rate commensurate with the one that preceded the epidemic. If new cases, which generate the deaths, is not low enough to balance those two death rates, you're still under an epidemic. You can invalidate and even delete the argument as long as we can all agree to take the problem seriously, that's in the next post:

 

[StarHalo]

Quick review:

Some of you folks who are newer here might not be aware of a guy we used to have called Sub_Umbra; his posts are still available in a broad range of prep-centric topics if you look back far enough, where you can read about how he sheltered in place in downtown New Orleans during and after Hurricane Katrina. If you recall the images in and around the flooded French Quarter where people begged helicopters to rescue them and looters moved freely - that's where he was, holed up in a street side residential building posting to us. That's who I learned prepping from. That of all the lights and gadgets we have here, your mindset is the first and most important tool. It's better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it. And he has a whole encyclopedic set of posts here about serious SHTF prepping that you can also learn from, where we all shared information and discussed what worked and what didn't.

So having provided some of my own educational background in prepping (aside from what I've gone through personally,) this sets up a couple of thorny points on the progression of these Coronavirus threads. One, I understand that my vigilance is sometimes interpreted as negativity, but this is the traditional prepper approach to a worldwide emergency event - you need to assume that the situation will not be mild enough that you can take it easy, it defeats the purpose of planning to just read the good parts of the news and then put off planning because there are optimistic ways to look at the situation. There are always optimistic ways to look at the situation, and there are always ways it can get a lot worse - use the second approach when preparing.

Two, the internet is forever. There are many very memorable news events you can look back through on this site, people talking about planes hitting buildings on 9/11, flooding in Manhattan, the death of Bin Laden, etc. It's all been there for everyone to see since it happened. And now we have this - it's a given that interested folks perusing the site in 2035 will flip back to the threads about that world pandemic that happened long ago, and there will be our posts. So if, on a site renown for prepping, a group of older guys are discussing a pandemic that kills older guys and they keep coming to the conclusion that it's just not that big of a deal, that it's all somebody else's fault and everything's fine and looking up, that's not a good look. There weren't people asked to ration in WWII who declined because it "took their freedoms," or people after 9/11 who were "too concerned" about terrorism - Americans work together to get through the tough time, because you can't sit back and wait for it to get easier.

I absolutely do argue if someone sets out to be abrupt with me, if you stop someone at your local grocery store to provide them with something witty you came up with, you know that they will almost always meet you equally, I am as human here as I am at the grocery store. But you can see that my direction is one of information and rubber-meets-the-road instruction, I'm taking my vitamin D and watching the curve carefully, that's why I told you about it. Take a moment to look away from those external influences that tell you to just take the easy route and don't worry about it, realize that there absolutely is a threat out there that can truly harm you or your family and that bothers me, realize that there's a reason behind the old compliment "may you live in interesting times," because you're absolutely there here and now, don't miss it..

 

[knucklegary]

Epic :bow::bow::bow:

 

[Greta]

The goal is a death rate commensurate with the one that preceded the epidemic. If new cases, which generate the deaths, is not low enough to balance those two death rates, you're still under an epidemic. You can invalidate and even delete the argument as long as we can all agree to take the problem seriously, that's in the next post:

What does this even MEAN?!?!? :shakehead

But you can see that my direction is one of information and rubber-meets-the-road instruction,...

And that would be welcome if the information was accurate... and interpreted accurately. How many more times are you going to quote CNN and make a fool of yourself before you look for other sources? You've been debunked more times than I can even count anymore. And for that reason, no one is even listening to you anymore. So what are you accomplishing?

I'm taking my vitamin D and watching the curve carefully, that's why I told you about it. Take a moment to look away from those external influences that tell you to just take the easy route and don't worry about it, realize that there absolutely is a threat out there that can truly harm you or your family and that bothers me, realize that there's a reason behind the old compliment "may you live in interesting times," because you're absolutely there here and now, don't miss it..

Sadly, this reminds me of a conversation I had with my brother years ago. I won't go into all of the gory details that led up to it but it resulted in him telling me "I'm afraid to die". You see... he was living in fear every single day. Not living his life AT ALL! He was too afraid to do anything! My advice to him was "Life's short. Live it!" - That is true for all of us. You say "there absolutely is a threat out there that can truly harm you or your family".... I totally agree! A car running a stop light, a drunk driving home from the bar, a hurricane ripping through your neighborhood, a fire in your house, an amoeba crawling up your nose and eating your brain while you're swimming in your favorite lake (yeah, that happens here where I live!), etc. etc. The list goes on.

You can do your prepper thing. Good for you! But don't try to shove it down everyone else's throat with false information and skewed "statistics". Just because some of us choose to live our lives, doesn't mean we don't take this pandemic seriously. It simply means we choose to LIVE our lives on OUR terms - not yours. You want to be part of this discussion and impart knowledge and information? It is welcome! But make sure it's accurate. And make sure you're not trying to force YOUR agenda on everyone else. More bees with honey.

 

[StarHalo]

How many more times are you going to quote CNN and make a fool of yourself before you look for other sources? You've been debunked more times than I can even count anymore. And for that reason, no one is even listening to you anymore. So what are you accomplishing?

My source for nearly all of the info here is Johns Hopkins, even the recent CNN-branded charts are all Hopkins sourced. I have also posted video from and links to Fox, charts from MSNBC, the Atlantic, the Lancet, I posted AOC dancing, and Russell Brand keeps coming up. And regardless of how many other sources I add or delete, some will still find my approach too negative or too political, because "information is evaluated based not on conformity to common standards of evidence or correspondence to a common understanding of the world, but on whether it supports the tribe's values and goals and is vouchsafed by tribal leaders," and that's Vox.

And make sure you're not trying to force YOUR agenda on everyone else. More bees with honey.

I would like to be able to point out the nation's statistical position in the world without being called un-American, that's not an agenda coming from my end, but I know that's how it'd happen in the aforementioned grocery store or bar. Sometimes you have to go through the bees. Like you said, how other people are reacting is on them, no one has to prove anything.

 

[nbp]

Numbers are fun cuz you can spin them any way you want.

Over 10,000 people in nursing homes in the USA have died of COVID19. That is a terrible statistic! (True). Nursing homes are doing a terrible job, they are death pits!

Or:

Prior to the pandemic, over 1000 people per day died of infections in nursing homes in the USA. Only 10,300 have died since Jan 21 of COVID19, which is about 100 per day. (Also true.) Nursing homes are doing a great job!

Same info, sounds quite different two ways.

 

[lion504]

Good post nbp... Reminds me of the quote “There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics...”


Anyone found any sources of hand sanitizer online, or had any success home brewing?