Hooked on Fenix
Flashlight Enthusiast
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2007
- Messages
- 3,735
No, they thought if they wiped more, the sh*t would stop hitting the fan.
Coronavirus - II
- Thread starter Empath
- Start date
- Status
No, they thought if they wiped more, the sh*t would stop hitting the fan.
Dave D
Flashlight Enthusiast
Unfortunately we got it instead, about 6 weeks of cloud and rain down here in Spain, on the plus side it probably helped the population cope better with the lockdown here!
It was unfortunate that the sun came out in the UK during the lockdown, the Brits see it so rarely that, for a proportion of them, it was like moths to a flame!!
Very true Dave, luckily we have a garden(all be it small). So it was not the end of the world, BBQ fired up and chill time in fresh air. It must be really difficult living in a tower block as many do or flats. Certainly a test of inner strength (mind).
Looks fantastic where you are, stay safe Dave and keep living the dream!
Shhhh!! Don't tell your governor.
Mine says it's likely parts of our state can open next week (5/14). That means measured changes on how the things that reopen will proceed. Our home will stayed hunkered down a bit longer. Mainly because it is still spreading in my community and surrounding ones. Our town has lots and lots of visitors so until the spread quits doubling every week or so we'll just continue to avoid things we avoid now. I don't need any trophies right now, guitar strings.
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bigburly912
Flashlight Enthusiast
I hear those white whales have been known to cause cancer in some private lab testing in California
Apple, Google COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps: a classic case of "we must do something (with tech, because we are tech companies); this is something, therefore we must do it."
Questionable efficacy.
"Assume you take the app out grocery shopping with you and it subsequently alerts you of a contact. What should you do? It's not accurate enough for you to quarantine yourself for two weeks. And without ubiquitous, cheap, fast, and accurate testing, you can't confirm the app's diagnosis. So the alert is useless.
Similarly, assume you take the app out grocery shopping and it doesn't alert you of any contact. Are you in the clear? No, you're not. You actually have no idea if you've been infected."
Questionable efficacy.
"Assume you take the app out grocery shopping with you and it subsequently alerts you of a contact. What should you do? It's not accurate enough for you to quarantine yourself for two weeks. And without ubiquitous, cheap, fast, and accurate testing, you can't confirm the app's diagnosis. So the alert is useless.
Similarly, assume you take the app out grocery shopping and it doesn't alert you of any contact. Are you in the clear? No, you're not. You actually have no idea if you've been infected."
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I thought the contact tracing was for when you test positive it can back trace places you were over an X period of days.
I leave my phone at home when running errands etc, so if the data only shows where my phone was……
This morning I took Mrs Fixer to a facility for a procedure and was met with proper precautions. Mask required to get in, temperature check and a short list of questions. Only those with an appointment could go past the greeter. Nobody else, including me because I'm not having anything done there. I'm ok with that. Unlike the college campus I was at yesterday where it was all lah-tee-dah, this place was truely pro.
If you did not have a mask they'd provide one at no cost. Foam type hand sanitizer and tissue dispensors were stationed about 25 feet apart on both sides of the hallway leading to the elevator where I waved a "see ya in a little while" to Mrs Fixer. The thing I noticed was outside in the fresh air nobody wore a mask and gloves but deployed them before entering indoors where the virus would most likely live.
I leave my phone at home when running errands etc, so if the data only shows where my phone was……
This morning I took Mrs Fixer to a facility for a procedure and was met with proper precautions. Mask required to get in, temperature check and a short list of questions. Only those with an appointment could go past the greeter. Nobody else, including me because I'm not having anything done there. I'm ok with that. Unlike the college campus I was at yesterday where it was all lah-tee-dah, this place was truely pro.
If you did not have a mask they'd provide one at no cost. Foam type hand sanitizer and tissue dispensors were stationed about 25 feet apart on both sides of the hallway leading to the elevator where I waved a "see ya in a little while" to Mrs Fixer. The thing I noticed was outside in the fresh air nobody wore a mask and gloves but deployed them before entering indoors where the virus would most likely live.
From:
https://www.goodrx.com/blog/how-does-the-coronavirus-covid-19-affect-kids-children/
''Children — younger children especially — get many normal viral infections in childhood. Scientists think that this repeated viral exposure prepares the child’s immune system for SARS‐CoV‐2. This means that they are better armed to fight it when they do encounter it.
Another theory is that because their immune system is still “learning,” it is less likely to react aggressively to the coronavirus — something called a cytokine storm, which is associated with many adult deaths from COVID-19.
Scientists also wonder whether an enzyme called angiotensin‐converting enzyme (ACE) might have something to do with it. The coronavirus, SARS‐CoV‐2, is thought to latch on to this enzyme in the lungs. This enzyme isn’t very active in childhood, so this might explain why the virus doesn’t cause a lot of damage here."
https://www.goodrx.com/blog/how-does-the-coronavirus-covid-19-affect-kids-children/
''Children — younger children especially — get many normal viral infections in childhood. Scientists think that this repeated viral exposure prepares the child’s immune system for SARS‐CoV‐2. This means that they are better armed to fight it when they do encounter it.
Another theory is that because their immune system is still “learning,” it is less likely to react aggressively to the coronavirus — something called a cytokine storm, which is associated with many adult deaths from COVID-19.
Scientists also wonder whether an enzyme called angiotensin‐converting enzyme (ACE) might have something to do with it. The coronavirus, SARS‐CoV‐2, is thought to latch on to this enzyme in the lungs. This enzyme isn’t very active in childhood, so this might explain why the virus doesn’t cause a lot of damage here."
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So now there's a model saying 20k new cases a day on June 1 and 3k deaths a day if we lift lockdowns in the US.
If you look at yesterdays world-o-meter for yesterday, we are already pretty close to there with lock downs.
Meanwhile Swedens numbers are about 5% what models predicted if they kept going like normal with caution reccomended. Beaches were closed back down in a Florida city because people wouldn't wear masks………
A school in Montana(?) reopened today. A town of about 800 people with less than 100 students elected to let kids go back for the 2-1/2 weeks remaining. Meanwhile another state extended their lockdown until July 6th. Not NY, NJ or anybody in the top 5 of cases/deaths.
European countries are reopening including soccer games in some cases. This thing aint over by far but a poll in the US shows only 36% favor continued lock downs. Meanwhile New Zealand had 0 new cases for the second day in a row.
Just some random news about the pandemic.
If you look at yesterdays world-o-meter for yesterday, we are already pretty close to there with lock downs.
Meanwhile Swedens numbers are about 5% what models predicted if they kept going like normal with caution reccomended. Beaches were closed back down in a Florida city because people wouldn't wear masks………
A school in Montana(?) reopened today. A town of about 800 people with less than 100 students elected to let kids go back for the 2-1/2 weeks remaining. Meanwhile another state extended their lockdown until July 6th. Not NY, NJ or anybody in the top 5 of cases/deaths.
European countries are reopening including soccer games in some cases. This thing aint over by far but a poll in the US shows only 36% favor continued lock downs. Meanwhile New Zealand had 0 new cases for the second day in a row.
Just some random news about the pandemic.
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And now we're finding out the information being thrown around as credible from the Johns Hopkins University is:
"... [FONT="]is based on faulty assumptions and is in no way representative of any federal government projections and, as Johns Hopkins stated, should not be taken as a forecast,"
Source.
Sorry SH [/FONT]:shrug:
"... [FONT="]is based on faulty assumptions and is in no way representative of any federal government projections and, as Johns Hopkins stated, should not be taken as a forecast,"
Source.
Sorry SH [/FONT]:shrug:
StarHalo
Flashaholic
The only posts I've made above that have attempted a forecast or used forecast data [excepting the UK/France forecasts of relative total population cases over a year, which is so distant that there's still no way to know if it's accurate,] is the concept that we must respond proactively, and that failing to do that we would not experience the same flattened curve that other first world nations who responded nationally did. The idea of being proactive has only recently been acknowledged, the idea of a national response is still not accepted here.
No forecast data from any agency has been used in any form of national response or reaction; you could draw up expansive and exhaustive worst-case or best-case scenario analyses and it would make no difference, the information is not being acted on or taken into consideration.
You seem terribly concerned about what sources I use to post all the information that has so far turned out to be correct, I would gladly extend an invitation to you to expound on what the trusted and correct sources are.
Right now it's all just educated guesses Star. Guesses based on what is known at a given time. History will prove what we did right and what we did wrong. History is full of bad ideas. Ideas that seemed like the right thing to do at the time. Wooden wheels, leeches for pnuemonia, cars without head lights, road without lane stripes, bicycles without brakes, wool clothing in summer, lead paint, wooden teeth, asbestos, to name a few. We know from history those weren't such a great idea.
One camp says dam the torpedos, open er up again.
The other camp says hunker down until this thing is over.
Graphs and charts and educated guesses are providing fodder for both camps.
It kinda boils down to some like Pepsi, some prefer Coke. Somewhere in the center is RC cola.
One camp says dam the torpedos, open er up again.
The other camp says hunker down until this thing is over.
Graphs and charts and educated guesses are providing fodder for both camps.
It kinda boils down to some like Pepsi, some prefer Coke. Somewhere in the center is RC cola.
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Seems like there are two choices:
- Open up now (with accompanying pain, suffering, and death - because of more COVID-19)
- Open up later (with accompanying pain, suffering, and death - because of increased poverty)
Which is worse? Nobody knows for sure, because there are no trusted and correct sources that can predict accurately. Only option is to pick one and try to make corrections as quickly as possible.
EDIT: I'm generally in favor of opening up sooner, but the supporting "freedom!" argument, while emotionally appealing, is not that logical, IMHO. Civilization is essentially about giving up freedoms.
- Open up now (with accompanying pain, suffering, and death - because of more COVID-19)
- Open up later (with accompanying pain, suffering, and death - because of increased poverty)
Which is worse? Nobody knows for sure, because there are no trusted and correct sources that can predict accurately. Only option is to pick one and try to make corrections as quickly as possible.
EDIT: I'm generally in favor of opening up sooner, but the supporting "freedom!" argument, while emotionally appealing, is not that logical, IMHO. Civilization is essentially about giving up freedoms.
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:sigh: From this post of yours - "My source for nearly all of the info here is Johns Hopkins, even the recent CNN-branded charts are all Hopkins sourced."
It is taken into consideration by people like you who feel the need to share it as gospel. And the media shares it as gospel. These actions are dangerous and sow unnecessary discord and panic. Think about the old tale of Chicken Little - everyone running around saying the sky is falling. Turned out to be nothing more than an acorn. And poor Goosey Loosey, and Henny Penny and Turkey Lurkey all got eaten up by Foxey Loxey in a deep garden hole. We can learn a lot from folktales.
Your information has NOT turned out to be correct. That has been shown many times by other members. The trusted and correct sources are the ones that cannot and are not consistently debunked. YOU figure that out.
StarHalo
Flashaholic
Correct, the data on current conditions is from Johns Hopkins. I have not provided any forecast data or prognosticated beyond the need to flatten the curve and what would happen otherwise.
This is the Tortoise and the Hare, and we have become very relaxed where we think we are well ahead. The reason I am advocating for a national response and the need for a more health-centric approach is because this is what has worked in other countries, I did not make it up or learn it from one media source or personality, it's not a political manifesto or Devil's Advocate response, I simply believe we should attempt to do what has already proven successful.
The other members were very disgruntled with me for being too negative in proposing that there would be a price to be paid for not preparing early, which has proven true, and very disconcerted with what was interpreted as some sort of radical-liberal or anti-American sentiment in positing that if the US did not respond as a whole, it would fall behind other countries, which is where we are.
That sounds like a good learning exercise for all involved. I would like anyone here who would be interested in sharing their opinion to tell me what is a correct news source that cannot/is not consistently debunked. I'd like to hear what others think.
turbodog
Flashaholic
Have been away for a few days, just caught up.
1. Don't know who posted it, but it think it is important to recognize that most (good) charts show infections on a log scale. This is good and bad. Where it's bad is when the scale gets close to flat. Because it's log-scaled you can still have significant growth and not see it very clearly.
2. You can take confirmed cases minus resolved cases and that will give active cases. BTW, this number is on worldometer already. However, in almost every state/country/etc, due to the rapid growth of the virus, you can practically ignore the resolved cases. Yes, resolved keeps growing, but new grows faster.
3. I'm in MS, way down south. We are seeing a daily increase of about 3-4% for 10 days now. That's great, and I applaud everyone that helped it get that low. BTW, we were at 20%, then 15%, then 10%, and so on. However, exponential growth, even at 1%, is still exponential. At 4%, which we will not maintain after we reopen (in 2 days), the virus covers the state by Sep 30.
4. I've been recording state and country numbers since this started. If you plot them (cases per million people) you get a nice curve. It's interesting to see that everyone is moving up the curve. Sweden is where the USA was 2 weeks ago. We are where Faeroe Islands were 2 weeks ago. Our relative ranking has moved from 18th to 14th during this time.
5. For retail checkout registers/etc, where you don't have or want to use gloves, I recommend these. Have been using them for weeks now. Get a few strange (and envious) looks.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00HFQQO02/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1
1. Don't know who posted it, but it think it is important to recognize that most (good) charts show infections on a log scale. This is good and bad. Where it's bad is when the scale gets close to flat. Because it's log-scaled you can still have significant growth and not see it very clearly.
2. You can take confirmed cases minus resolved cases and that will give active cases. BTW, this number is on worldometer already. However, in almost every state/country/etc, due to the rapid growth of the virus, you can practically ignore the resolved cases. Yes, resolved keeps growing, but new grows faster.
3. I'm in MS, way down south. We are seeing a daily increase of about 3-4% for 10 days now. That's great, and I applaud everyone that helped it get that low. BTW, we were at 20%, then 15%, then 10%, and so on. However, exponential growth, even at 1%, is still exponential. At 4%, which we will not maintain after we reopen (in 2 days), the virus covers the state by Sep 30.
4. I've been recording state and country numbers since this started. If you plot them (cases per million people) you get a nice curve. It's interesting to see that everyone is moving up the curve. Sweden is where the USA was 2 weeks ago. We are where Faeroe Islands were 2 weeks ago. Our relative ranking has moved from 18th to 14th during this time.
5. For retail checkout registers/etc, where you don't have or want to use gloves, I recommend these. Have been using them for weeks now. Get a few strange (and envious) looks.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00HFQQO02/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1
scout24
Flashaholic
SH- We just spent seven weeks locked down nationally to "flatten the curve." How can you POSSIBLY say there has been no coordinated national response? Please. Do tell...
And perhaps explain to me how an ongoing response in NYC, the epicenter of this, is remotely apropos in my county of +/- 51,000 people where we have had 109 cases and 5 deaths. I'm 120 miles from downtown Manhattan, btw.
And perhaps explain to me how an ongoing response in NYC, the epicenter of this, is remotely apropos in my county of +/- 51,000 people where we have had 109 cases and 5 deaths. I'm 120 miles from downtown Manhattan, btw.
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Poppy
Flashaholic
Lion,
Well put. :)
Your mention of make corrections as quickly as possible actually presents the third option...
Open somewhat in the middle... some now, and if it goes well enough, a little more, and then more.
Make corrections, IE pull back a bit if the curve jumps too quickly, that the hospitals will be over-burdened, or if an actual TREATMENT appears to be on the horizon.
OTOH if a week later the curve has not bent upwards to much, then opening a little more quickly, or as quickly as planned may be in order.
IMO surveys for the most part, most surveys, can be used when you run out or toilet paper.
How one responds to the survey... stay locked down or open up?
Financial:
If a person is not eligible for unemployment and is now out of work, he probably wants to OPEN up.
If unemployment doesn't compare to his previous salary, he may be in favor of opening up.
If a person owns a small clothing store for example. Non-essential... He/she may have his/her life savings in that store. Each year new inventory must be purchased, months in advance. Old/current stock must be sold, or taken as a loss. They can't sell current stock!
Their lives are being CRUSHED!
Imagine a guy who owns a "bait and tackle shop" and can't open. Still has to pay rent though. Can he collect unemployment? Maybe, maybe not. Does he still have his personal expenses? Like home mortgage, cable TV, phone, insurance (health, liability, auto, life)?
Each of the above probably want to OPEN up, because financially they are being crushed.
OTOH:
Those who have not been financially impacted may have a different opinion.
Some experts will say: When being attacked don't scream "help" scream "FIRE ... FIRE"
Help may require intervention and danger in being involved. FIRE however moves, and may come and encompass one. Therefore more people will respond to FIRE because it may come and get them. They want to see where it is.
So... those who are older and retired, may not be financially impacted and may not care if it OPENs up, except that the virus may come and get them, therefore they may prefer that it stays closed.
Others who are considered essential, and have to work, depending upon whether their lives are in danger.. IE first line workers, may prefer it to be locked down.
Those whose jobs are considered essential, and whose lives are not in danger, but can continue with their life as it was, may not care one way or the other.
CARE FOR SELF OR RISK TO OTHERS
Certainly it is understandable, if one is at risk individual, to want to limit the transmission as much as possible, which means keeping things locked down.
Again, if one has a family member who is at risk, one may be particularly inclined to "lock down" and stay that way.
Then one might have to consider, how much is he willing to lose of his comfortable life style to stay locked down and save some lives of people he doesn't know. Will he give up his life savings, lose his house, live in his car, or maybe a tent under a bridge?
POPULATION DENSITY and Actual Risk to ONESELF
There are states, or areas of states where there are only 50 people in a square mile.
In 1976, I broke down in Kennebec, SD
I was stuck there for three days waiting for a rear axle bearing to come in and to have it swapped out.
I asked the young mechanic what he did for entertainment. He said we drink beer and shoot rabbits. On weekends we go to town.
I said to town!? There is one building. It is the hardware store, post office, and grocery store all in one. There is a movie theater that shows it's one movie on Friday night.
"Oh", he said, "we go to Sioux Falls" to party.
I said.. "That's a hundred miles away!"
"Yeah, Old man Jones pulls his squad car off the road about 6 PM and so it only takes about an hour to get there."
________________
If the risk is LOW, how willing are you to give up your store, your livelihood? Your ability to go fishing or play in the park? BBQ with friends?
If the risk is still high, how much risk are you willing to take? For yourself and loved ones?
_________________________
FOR THE GOVERNORS
Overall it is a judgement call, and based on the best available information, taking into consideration, how much will the populace tolerate, and how best to last this thing out, without killing the economy, both locally and nationally.
Personally I am willing to take a financial hit to save many lives, and to offer some (although not guaranteed) protection to my father, and my immediate family. I am not going to live in a tent under a bridge, nor would I go that far if I was in a position that I was living pay check to pay check. I believe that eventually 80% of us will be exposed, maybe more. I'm hoping that it doesn't occur until there is a proven, effective treatment for it.
_________________________________
One more note:
Not long ago, there was a huge group of people (reportedly 2000) who got together, shoulder to shoulder, front to back, like cattle packed in a corral, being made ready to go to slaughter. Most wore masks, many did not. They were warned by their leaders to behave responsibly, and they did not. IMO the national guard should have been brought in, corraled them, and marched them to a holding pen for two weeks, (like an indoor stadium) and then only released those without a fever.
They then could be tested as part of an experiment to see how many, what percentage contracted, and developed antibodies, to covid 19. Come to think of it they should have tested them before putting them into the stadium, and then again upon release. It would yield valuable information regarding opening up.
Greta or any other mod,
If I over stepped, and you want to delete my.. One more note: I understand that I may have overstepped the rules.
I hope that you leave it, but it is your call.
Poppy
StarHalo
Flashaholic
If the approach that you have taken has failed so completely to the degree that you're now a statistical outlier, that should be an indication to change course. Not only has that indication has not been recognized, but you're not even acknowledging that our response was anything-goes states-only. You don't understand what I'm saying about a solution because you don't accept that there is a problem.
- Status
