Coronavirus

[Poppy]

I actually just finished a series of medical lectures where various topics were discussed including the benefits of vitamins. The short was they provide no to very minimal benefit to those that eat a proper diet. Some specific vitamins showed more benefit then others but results were minimal and more research was needed. Those with poor diets or lack the accessibility to good nutrition could on the other hand benefit from supplements. Surprisingly, at least to me, some vitamins if maga dosed can have toxic effects. The short was save your money and eat a balanced diet.

Medical studies are often so flawed, that when you examine the data you wonder "how did they come to that conclusion" then you look to see who paid for the study. When it comes to diet, there are so many con-founders, that it is nearly impossible to eliminate or account for them all.

I did a weekend long seminar that was very chemistry intensive on how the body digests food. Dr. Seaman presented on how to decrease inflammation in the body; how some foods digestive pathways, increase inflammation, and other foods, increase the production of free radical scavengers and decrease inflammation. The short story was... eat fresh fruits and vegetables, and animals that eat grass, and fish (not farmed fish). Avoid grains and certain oils. Grass fed beef, not grain fed beef, and free range chickens. Dairy in moderation should be from grass fed animals.

Multi vitamins, tumeric, and omega 3 fatty acid supplements were also recommended.

I was getting up twice a night to urinate, and 2 - 3 months after changing my diet, only once a night, and now, not at all.

Yet the Harvard Medical School still promote the MyPlate where 25% of one's diet should be whole grains.

Regarding megadoses: too much of anything isn't good. The last I looked at it, the concern was with the FAT soluble vitamins A,D,E and K. They are stored in the body. IIRC it was hyper-vitaminosis of vitamin A, that was the problem, and at that it was a self resolving issue when the dosage was stopped.

Its my opinion that it is a good idea to take a multi every day or every other day. If it is proven that I wasted my money, they wouldn't have to go far to find a stash of flashlights that don't get used. :)

 

[trailhunter]

So genuine question, not being antagonistic. What is the game plan here? We’ve got everyone safe at home, “flattening the curve”... good... now what? Is the idea that no one goes anywhere or interacts with anyone until they can vaccinate the whole country? We could be 12-18 months from that. This current lifestyle with millions out of work and unable to come in contact with other humans isn’t sustainable for anywhere near that long. I read everyday the news reports and I can’t quite grasp the end game.

Likely we will all need to wear masks as we go out when the nation starts turning on the engine until there is a vaccine available. There would be global stringent travel probably including requiring masks.

If we open it back up, all the work that was done so far will be reversed and well go through all this all over again.

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[Greta]

^^ I read same about vit D can be bad news for women taking meda doses to counter effect osteoporosis

That is exactly what happened to me when I turned 50 years old. My doctor told me I needed to start on Vit D supplements. Um... I live in freakin' AZ. Sunscreen or not, I get my D just walking out to my car. After three weeks on the D, I was *SICK*. So I did some googling and found that I was D toxic. The recommendation for treatment was "Go to the ER!"... reading further, I found that a dose of Ativan would be helpful. I happened to have an old 'script. Popped a pill and was right as rain within an hour. But it was still a bit scary... and totally unnecessary. I made sure I let my doctor know that... :ironic:

 

[Poppy]

So genuine question, not being antagonistic. What is the game plan here? We’ve got everyone safe at home, “flattening the curve”... good... now what? Is the idea that no one goes anywhere or interacts with anyone until they can vaccinate the whole country? We could be 12-18 months from that. This current lifestyle with millions out of work and unable to come in contact with other humans isn’t sustainable for anywhere near that long. I read everyday the news reports and I can’t quite grasp the end game.

IDK the end game.

At some point in time, assuming that those infected and recovered, have immunity, then there will be a certain amount of "herd immunity" resulting... if I understand it, the virus will not be able to ramp up as quickly as it is currently ramping up.

It has been described that flattening the curve may not cause an overall decrease in those infected, but may spread out the time chart of the cases, so that our medical system will be able to handle the flow, of those who need hospitalization, and those who need ventilators. It's been reported that we may see 40-70% of the population infected, with most recovering, which will add to the herd immunity.

At some point in time, I imagine it will be determined that certain areas have made it to the other side of the curve, the hospitals are catching their breath, and certain classes of workers will be allowed to return to work, (perhaps if tested negative, or immune).

I don't think the rest of the country will be able to relax until after we see New York and New Jersey turn the corner.
Just my thoughts.
POppy

 

[trailhunter]

That is exactly what happened to me when I turned 50 years old. My doctor told me I needed to start on Vit D supplements. Um... I live in freakin' AZ. Sunscreen or not, I get my D just walking out to my car. After three weeks on the D, I was *SICK*. So I did some googling and found that I was D toxic. The recommendation for treatment was "Go to the ER!"... reading further, I found that a dose of Ativan would be helpful. I happened to have an old 'script. Popped a pill and was right as rain within an hour. But it was still a bit scary... and totally unnecessary. I made sure I let my doctor know that... :ironic:

Very interesting, normally vitamin D can be taken in large quantities, its fat soluble so people dont pee it out. Good to know it does have effect, seemed like a relatively innocous vitamin.

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[archimedes]

So genuine question, not being antagonistic. What is the game plan here? We’ve got everyone safe at home, “flattening the curve”... good... now what? Is the idea that no one goes anywhere or interacts with anyone until they can vaccinate the whole country? We could be 12-18 months from that. This current lifestyle with millions out of work and unable to come in contact with other humans isn’t sustainable for anywhere near that long. I read everyday the news reports and I can’t quite grasp the end game.

I think before we commit the entire country ( world? ) to indefinite "lockdown" , it might be a good idea to find out what percentage of the population is willing to be vaccinated.

In the US, only about half of those recommended to receive vaccination for seasonal influenza infection actually do so. Rates vary a bit year-to-year, and state-to-state, but are usually right around 50%

For a virus this infectious, 50% is too low for effective "herd-immunity"

Or is the plan that this corona vaccination will be mandatory ? No opt-outs ?

Has there been any validated polling on this question ? Can we get that data soon ?

Might raise some thorny questions about how that happens, or not, too :thinking:

 

[P_A_S_1]

I was prescribed vitamin d when my blood work showed a deficiency years ago and thought it odd but took them as directed. Months later it turned out to be lab error in testing so I probably never needed it.

 

[archimedes]

.... Months later it turned out to be lab error in testing so I probably never needed it.

Leaders across the globe are making a lot of momentous decisions based on data from brand-new lab tests, being (understandably) hastily pressed into service ....

 

[scout24]

NBP- All good questions. I am hoping that people start taking this seriously, and go out as little as possible. This, hopefully, lets medical staff work towards a treatment rather than have to treat infected people. I fear greatly that for a good percentage of people the reality of this won't hit home until bodies stack up in their own town. This is uncharted territory. The more we cooperate with recommendations from the medical powers that be, the faster we can come out the other side. Things will be different. There's no way around that. Transparency as to what we're dealing with would probably hasten the process. End game is develop treatment and vaccine as quickly as possible, keep the number of cases as low as possible, and return to "normal" as quick as possible. It will take as long as it takes, longer if we continue to not take it seriously. We have access to every book ever written, every movie ever made, every game ever played without leaving our collective couch. Forums to socialize in. Learn a new language. Study. Stay home. The life you save may be your own.

 

[nbp]

IDK the end game.

At some point in time, assuming that those infected and recovered, have immunity, then there will be a certain amount of "herd immunity" resulting... if I understand it, the virus will not be able to ramp up as quickly as it is currently ramping up.

It has been described that flattening the curve may not cause an overall decrease in those infected, but may spread out the time chart of the cases, so that our medical system will be able to handle the flow, of those who need hospitalization, and those who need ventilators. It's been reported that we may see 40-70% of the population infected, with most recovering, which will add to the herd immunity.

At some point in time, I imagine it will be determined that certain areas have made it to the other side of the curve, the hospitals are catching their breath, and certain classes of workers will be allowed to return to work, (perhaps if tested negative, or immune).

I don't think the rest of the country will be able to relax until after we see New York and New Jersey turn the corner.
Just my thoughts.
POppy

I totally get the intention, for sure. It’s “easy” to catch up and flatten the curve when most people aren’t interacting with others. But this level of unemployment is unsustainable for any length of time. $1200 is a nice gesture, but we’re just getting into peak earning for seasonal work and lots of summertime businesses right now. I’ve had more than $1200 worth of work canceled just this week. Very soon the effects of poverty, homelessless, loss of medical coverage will begin to affect a great many of the healthy people in the country, not just the old and sick. And with 50 million people over the age of 65 if even a fraction of them get it, you would have to spread it out over literally years to accommodate them all effectively in hospitals. I don’t know if just waiting it out is a feasible option... perhaps it will just kinda burn itself out like some of the previous coronaviruses have. That’s probably the best case scenario. We can hope!

I think before we commit the entire country ( world? ) to indefinite "lockdown" , it might be a good idea to find out what percentage of the population is willing to be vaccinated.

In the US, only about half of those recommended to receive vaccination for seasonal influenza infection actually do so. Rates vary a bit year-to-year, and state-to-state, but are usually right around 50%

For a virus this infectious, 50% is too low for effective "herd-immunity"

Or is the plan that this corona vaccination will be mandatory ? No opt-outs ?

Has there been any validated polling on this question ? Can we get that data soon ?

Might raise some thorny questions about how that happens, or not, too :thinking:

I never get the flu, so I never get the flu shot. On the other hand, my customers don’t deny me access to their homes on the basis of whether or not I had a flu shot. Right now, older and at risk people are not letting any workers come to their homes. If a covid19 shot was the only way for them to let me come and do work for them, I suppose I would have to get it. Not much choice there, hey? If we knew that people once infected couldn’t be infected again (we don’t really know this) I almost would have rather just gotten it right away, self isolated the two weeks and beat it down so I could just go about life without so much concern.

NBP- All good questions. I am hoping that people start taking this seriously, and go out as little as possible. This, hopefully, lets medical staff work towards a treatment rather than have to treat infected people. I fear greatly that for a good percentage of people the reality of this won't hit home until bodies stack up in their own town. This is uncharted territory. The more we cooperate with recommendations from the medical powers that be, the faster we can come out the other side. Things will be different. There's no way around that. Transparency as to what we're dealing with would probably hasten the process. End game is develop treatment and vaccine as quickly as possible, keep the number of cases as low as possible, and return to "normal" as quick as possible. It will take as long as it takes, longer if we continue to not take it seriously. We have access to every book ever written, every movie ever made, every game ever played without leaving our collective couch. Forums to socialize in. Learn a new language. Study. Stay home. The life you save may be your own.

Yeah, it’s fun for a few days or a week or two. But I’m sorry - most can’t just not work for months and months. That’s what I mean; what’s the end game? Staying home indefinitely is not really much of a plan.


Perhaps my question was really more rhetorical, after all. The fact is, you’re right, scout24. Trying to control this is pretty uncharted. There probably isn’t really any solid plan. As my friend says “we’re building this plane as we fly it”. In the past, a disease came through, killed who it killed, and people accepted it and went on with life. Today, people do not want to accept that there are problems that cannot be easily scienced or legislated away, and expect answers and solutions. Even when there really isn’t any good ones.

 

[wacbzz]

So genuine question, not being antagonistic. What is the game plan here? We’ve got everyone safe at home, “flattening the curve”... good... now what? Is the idea that no one goes anywhere or interacts with anyone until they can vaccinate the whole country? We could be 12-18 months from that. This current lifestyle with millions out of work and unable to come in contact with other humans isn’t sustainable for anywhere near that long. I read everyday the news reports and I can’t quite grasp the end game.

Reported...





:D


Not sure where you’re located, but “everyone safe at home” is most certainly not the case where I live. I was having the exact discussion this morning with a co -worker (standing 6 feet apart, of course) about just who it was that was actually “staying at home.” I was in Home Depot yesterday getting some keys made for work and there were at least 50 people in there, not counting workers. The only “social distancing” was at the cash registers because they have tape on the floor. Banks are open. CVS is open. Landscapers are working. A large number of restaurants are still open doing take out/to go. Wawa is still open with way more than 10 people inside. Kroger is running strong with certainly more people inside than 10 that for sure aren’t practicing social distancing.

I realize that there are a large number of folks that have been laid off, but excepting office workers, I honestly don’t see how that’s impacted folks to stay home. I for sure DO NOT see folks staying at home...

 

[nbp]

Naturally it can never be everyone at home, I agree with you. But an awful lot is closed in this state. Aside from a grocery store, pharmacy or home repair store most all of the rest of them are closed. Bars are closed (in WI that’s a huge deal haha), restaurants are curbside pickup, salons, churches, theaters, etc. all closed. All the parks have closed any kind of structure where people could gather. There really aren’t any places left where a group could congregate. I guess that’s what I mean by everyone is at home. There’s nothing to do and no place to go once you leave home so most around here aren’t.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

So genuine question, not being antagonistic. What is the game plan here? We’ve got everyone safe at home, “flattening the curve”... good... now what? Is the idea that no one goes anywhere or interacts with anyone until they can vaccinate the whole country? We could be 12-18 months from that. This current lifestyle with millions out of work and unable to come in contact with other humans isn’t sustainable for anywhere near that long. I read everyday the news reports and I can’t quite grasp the end game.

This is a serious situation and it's going to take time to recover from. Things are going to be forever different after we recover. The time it will take to recover is going to bankrupt some nations and make many desperate enough to hurt others to gain their resources. The people with needed skills are currently at risk and after this is over, there will be a shortage of those with skilled labor including doctors, farmers, tradesmen, etc.. Our country can't survive long term like this. This has already cancelled school and college classes. Tax day has been extended three months. That's the money our government needs to function. Elections are in November and they may be cancelled if this lasts that long. Iran is planning attacks on the U.S. and North Korea is launching missiles again. Our enemies want to take advantage of our time of weakness and I'm sure they are well aware that this would be the perfect time to strike with an e.m.p..

All that said, I think the short term plan is voluntary lockdown. Once people recover from the virus, they can go back to work. If this affects our economy and function of government too much, we may switch to alternating times of working then lockdown. What we also have to worry about is the possibility of the virus mutating and reinfecting people as a new strain like the flu. There is some evidence of this in China already. At this point, I'd plan for this like the zombie apocalypse. Assume everyone is infected and can kill you and that this is the new normal. Don't depend on anyone else for your survival. Start building up a stockpile of needed food, water, and supplies(Hopefully you've done this already. It's almost too late to start.) As people running essential infrastructure get sick, that infrastructure can easily fail. Don't depend on our just in time delivery system for getting food daily. Every trip to get supplies is a chance you and your family can get sick. It's possible that this could get bad enough to affect the reliability of our power grid, our water, gas, transportation of goods, phone and internet services, etc. I hope it doesn't. I hope it doesn't last past elections or martial law might end up being declared to keep the government functioning. Hopefully this doesn't happen.

I think it's too late to depend on a government plan for your survival. You need your own plan. Stock up on supplies. Live somewhere you can get water naturally or move there as soon as possible. Grow your own food and raise animals. Learn new skills. Everyone should know basic first aid and wilderness survival skills, how to farm and hunt, and some other useful trade to barter your skills with (don't rely on YouTube videos to learn these skills after the SHTF).

 

[wacbzz]

Naturally it can never be everyone at home, I agree with you. But an awful lot is closed in this state. Aside from a grocery store, pharmacy or home repair store most all of the rest of them are closed. Bars are closed (in WI that’s a huge deal haha), restaurants are curbside pickup, salons, churches, theaters, etc. all closed. All the parks have closed any kind of structure where people could gather. There really aren’t any places left where a group could congregate. I guess that’s what I mean by everyone is at home. There’s nothing to do and no place to go once you leave home so most around here aren’t.

I forgot to add Cabela’s to that list of places that had a shload of people inside when I went there on Tuesday. Perhaps folks here in the good ole South just aren’t taking this as seriously. I now hate going to the grocery store not because they are out of items, but rather because there are so many people there.

Imagine...the Kroger Social Club.

 

[Chauncey Gardener]

We are 15 days into self-isolation and it is really upsetting me to witness my wife standing at the living room window gazing aimlessly into space with tears running down her cheeks.
It breaks my heart to see her like this. I have thought very hard about how I could cheer her up.


I have even considered letting her into the house ..... but hey .... the rules are the rules.

April fools!

 

[trailhunter]

We are 15 days into self-isolation and it is really upsetting me to witness my wife standing at the living room window gazing aimlessly into space with tears running down her cheeks.
It breaks my heart to see her like this. I have thought very hard about how I could cheer her up.


I have even considered letting her into the house ..... but hey .... the rules are the rules.

April fools!

You had me tearing up bro.

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[bykfixer]

End game? Valid question.
Perhaps to some degree looking back at history can give some clues for economics and sociatal changes that occured after certain events like the Spanish flu, the Great Depression or WW2. As for me, I'll go back to doing what I did before. Heck in some ways I'm doing now.

Since 911 I have led a more solitary lifestyle in general, largely avoiding big crowds, living as simple as practical with the notion that if they could do it in Jefferson's day we can too. I'll do better about watching expiration dates on non perishables and probably keep a months stock of toilet paper around.

Some will pick up where they left off, some will make drastic changes. My two biggest fears are 1) that governments think now that they could control the masses with fear, they'll keep coming up with ways to repeat that. And 2) society that was already largely polarized and untrusting of each other will only deepen those unfortunate traits.

Remember, the roaring 20's soon followed the Spanish flu.

 

[Poppy]

I totally get the intention, for sure. It’s “easy” to catch up and flatten the curve when most people aren’t interacting with others. But this level of unemployment is unsustainable for any length of time. $1200 is a nice gesture, but we’re just getting into peak earning for seasonal work and lots of summertime businesses right now. I’ve had more than $1200 worth of work canceled just this week.

nbp,
I hear you.

I too am an independent contractor and the last day I worked was 3/16/20. The business I work for closed and does not know, if and when it will re-open. It is very questionable whether I'll be hired back or not. This virus will be life changing.

As a small business owner, less than 50 employees, you might be able to get a loan (that you don't have to pay back) to pay your employees salaries, and your own! for 2 1/2 months.
OR if no employees, you may be eligible for unemployment insurance (previously not available to independent contractors)

We are all in this together.
I have faith, that if things last too long, there will be mortgage, and tax payments forgiveness or deferments. As a country, we'll make it work. Part of the 2 trillion was to help the banks and mortgage companies, so they can pay interest on their bonds, because the Feds, know that a lot of people won't be able to make their mortgage payments. The banks, by Fed mandate can't foreclose, now. Again, I have faith that time frame will be extended.

Very soon the effects of poverty, homelessless, loss of medical coverage will begin to affect a great many of the healthy people in the country, not just the old and sick. And with 50 million people over the age of 65 if even a fraction of them get it, you would have to spread it out over literally years to accommodate them all effectively in hospitals. I don’t know if just waiting it out is a feasible option... perhaps it will just kinda burn itself out like some of the previous coronaviruses have. That’s probably the best case scenario. We can hope!

Undoubtedly there is going to be a significant financial impact. Trump recognizes it and wanted to restart the economy Easter.

Regarding spreading it out over years, that is not likely. We'll probably have a vaccine. AND a number of recovered, immune people before this is over. Also a percentage of our more frail population will have passed on.

I never get the flu, so I never get the flu shot. On the other hand, my customers don’t deny me access to their homes on the basis of whether or not I had a flu shot. Right now, older and at risk people are not letting any workers come to their homes. If a covid19 shot was the only way for them to let me come and do work for them, I suppose I would have to get it. Not much choice there, hey? If we knew that people once infected couldn’t be infected again (we don’t really know this) I almost would have rather just gotten it right away, self isolated the two weeks and beat it down so I could just go about life without so much concern.

Or you could have died.
This virus has killed young athletic, healthy people (Of course there is always the outlier.)
You might well be a survivor.

If you had kids at home, or a wife, grand-kids, senior parent, would you be so willing to bet on their resistance?

My large top loading washing machine bit the bullet a few days ago. I also have a smaller front loader. I decided to swap in the smaller unit rather than have a tech come in from outside and maybe bring corona into the house. Even if he is immune, he might still carry the virus in on his hands, tools, clothes.

I had the MMR Polio, and tetanus vaccines but nothing else.
When they come out with one for this flu, I'll probably get it if I haven't already been infected.

Yeah, it’s fun for a few days or a week or two. But I’m sorry - most can’t just not work for months and months. That’s what I mean; what’s the end game? Staying home indefinitely is not really much of a plan.


Perhaps my question was really more rhetorical, after all. The fact is, you’re right, scout24. Trying to control this is pretty uncharted. There probably isn’t really any solid plan. As my friend says “we’re building this plane as we fly it”. In the past, a disease came through, killed who it killed, and people accepted it and went on with life. Today, people do not want to accept that there are problems that cannot be easily scienced or legislated away, and expect answers and solutions. Even when there really isn’t any good ones.

Although I am in favor of euthanasia (with certain caveats and protections); I am not ready to take the position of some... let it run its course, and let those who are going to die, die. I do understand their position. I am not there, yet. Maybe later, but not yet.

 

[Chauncey Gardener]

You had me tearing up bro.

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Sorry. Only wanted to make ya'll laugh.

 

[StarHalo]

So genuine question, not being antagonistic. What is the game plan here? We’ve got everyone safe at home, “flattening the curve”... good... now what? Is the idea that no one goes anywhere or interacts with anyone until they can vaccinate the whole country? We could be 12-18 months from that. This current lifestyle with millions out of work and unable to come in contact with other humans isn’t sustainable for anywhere near that long. I read everyday the news reports and I can’t quite grasp the end game.

There's only modest odds of a federal government plan to oversee this time period, so without that there is no one game plan, each state is on their own and what happens will depend on where you live. 70-80% of the population will test positive over the year with at least one million requiring ICU stays, so the actual death rate will come down to how many more states will lock down - the 100,000-240,000 dead number assumes all states under lockdown conditions by the end of this week, which will not be the case, so that number may be conservative. If essentially everyone locks down, then the illness will be restricted to circulating amongst those working, so the infection rate will be slow and low over time, a flattened curve, which could allow some quarantined to dribble back into the workforce slowly, so it could come down to maintaining an infection-rate vs available-beds balance until the vaccine arrives. More reading.