Coronavirus - II

[archimedes]

....
(Someone correct this if wrong) Maybe 1/2 of those infected with COVID have virtually no problems....

CDC has revised their estimates of this recently (last updated July 10, 2020 / accessed July 28, 2020) here ....

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

They now list their "current best estimate" of this parameter at 40% being entirely asymptomatic, and with a "likely range" that the true value will be from 10% to 70%

Out of curiosity, I used the Wayback Machine to take a look from the beginning of July for comparison. On July 1, 2020 ... their current best estimate was 35% asymptomatic, with a range from 20% - 50% .... I am a little bit surprised that with far more testing data available, the "error bars" for this parameter appear to be widening ? :thinking:

 

[turbodog]

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.c...-hospitals-build-negative-pressure-rooms-fast

Thanks for the link. Think you made my point for me. Once again, what we can do for one building is impossible to achieve across the US in the next few weeks.

And from the article:

"There are few studies as yet testing the effectiveness of establishing temporary isolation wards during a surge, cautions Clements, who was on the team that established the Bay Area temporary ward. Before including a temporary isolation ward in a hospital surge capacity plan, he advises conducting a (successful) full-scale demonstration to uncover any logistical and engineering issues.

Caring for patients in negative pressure rooms can amplify the usual constraints and stresses for staff. Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital, in China, came up with a way to help lessen some of the stress."

We can't grow our way out of this. I wish we could.

 

[turbodog]

...

Out of curiosity, I used the Wayback Machine to take a look from the beginning of July for comparison. On July 1, 2020 ... their current best estimate was 35% asymptomatic, with a range from 20% - 50% .... I am a little bit surprised that with far more testing data available, the "error bars" for this parameter appear to be widening ? :thinking:

Don't know. We seem to be short on some of the data that could be really helpful... like randomized sampling across the US to see who has recovered (or is infected) that we don't know about... to gain some insight into the 'shadow' group.

I'm guessing here... but we've got so MUCH data flowing in from so many places it's got to be a nightmare organizing it all. And so much is premature or anecdotal.

 

[Lynx_Arc]

I think there is a lot more people who have been "infected" with Covid that have had no symptoms and are not contagious either that unless we test everyone they won't show in the statistics it could be 75% of people infected have no problems and symptoms are indistinguishable from a common cold or allergy symptoms. Our state is going down in infections in most places but the city is still going up for now despite mandatory face masking and threatening to pull business licenses if they don't enforce the mandate.
So far the statistics I have seen have the death rates from this virus at about 0.5% or less in the category of most current infections around here the rate is probably closer to 0.2% or so.
From the little I've heard (which can be wrong, as too little accuracy in the media today) people are equating that immunity is temporary and that would possibly render any vaccine similarly in short time which means the virus could get pushed out of the country and 3-6 months later come right back again like it never left when immunity wears off.
It is quite possible that herd immunity does work but not perfectly and that it may in the end be the only way to get rid of the virus for good.

 

[Lynx_Arc]

Thanks for the link. Think you made my point for me. Once again, what we can do for one building is impossible to achieve across the US in the next few weeks.

And from the article:

"There are few studies as yet testing the effectiveness of establishing temporary isolation wards during a surge, cautions Clements, who was on the team that established the Bay Area temporary ward. Before including a temporary isolation ward in a hospital surge capacity plan, he advises conducting a (successful) full-scale demonstration to uncover any logistical and engineering issues.

Caring for patients in negative pressure rooms can amplify the usual constraints and stresses for staff. Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital, in China, came up with a way to help lessen some of the stress."

We can't grow our way out of this. I wish we could.

If you do have existing clinic/hospitals that are more suitable for adapting to Covid vs just a plain warehouse building I agree that the time it takes to adapt is greatly increased as hospitals are designed to be cleaned top to bottom and ventilation is designed to reduce even eliminate contaminants in the air better than normal systems. In our case here we have several medical clinics that are already earmarked for overflow that the public were not told about that may not be totally set up for covid but I believe could be quickly adapted for such use a lot faster than building anything from scratch. There are people whose lives are at stake when a spike happens governments want to close down businesses thinking it will contain the virus. Personally I think that the reason places haven't seen spikes yet is the virus just hasn't been there yet when it does come it will find plenty of targets and whammo.
You will sooner or later see people adapting buildings for Covid patients very quickly any way they can and although the results won't be perfect they will be better able to help them and contain the virus than otherwise.

 

[Lynx_Arc]

Well the governor of my state here has successfully survived Covid 19. He had little discomfort only feeling a little weak one day of the whole 2 week ordeal in quarantine. There wasn't a big deal made about him being sick in the media here even though he refused to mandate masks for the entire states leaving it to the individual cities.

 

[turbodog]

... In our case here we have several medical clinics that are already earmarked for overflow that the public were not told about that may not be totally set up for covid but I believe could be quickly adapted for such use a lot faster than building anything from scratch. ...

One of my first thoughts is that a clinic is a lot smaller than a hospital. So if rooms are converted to neg pressure the neg pressure room volume to rest of facility volume (and HVAC capacity) is a lot different. That said, we are still short of everything else. You need critical care nurses, machines, oxygen, more PPE, other support staffing. It's one thing to flip some room already setup for neg pressure to ICU and another thing to retrofit 'plain' rooms.

Labs in my area can't even get reagents on a frequent enough basis to run on-time nasal and blood tests for c-19. And cases keep climbing.

Local cardiac group decided to attend a 'function' the other day. Guess which cardiac group is out on 14 day quarantine now... and considering their sensitive patient type, they will require multiple negative tests before they return to work.

 

[Lynx_Arc]

One of my first thoughts is that a clinic is a lot smaller than a hospital. So if rooms are converted to neg pressure the neg pressure room volume to rest of facility volume (and HVAC capacity) is a lot different. That said, we are still short of everything else. You need critical care nurses, machines, oxygen, more PPE, other support staffing. It's one thing to flip some room already setup for neg pressure to ICU and another thing to retrofit 'plain' rooms.

Labs in my area can't even get reagents on a frequent enough basis to run on-time nasal and blood tests for c-19. And cases keep climbing.

Local cardiac group decided to attend a 'function' the other day. Guess which cardiac group is out on 14 day quarantine now... and considering their sensitive patient type, they will require multiple negative tests before they return to work.

Perhaps the volume is less or perhaps they aren't using every room in the clinic I don't really know but we did have 200 more hospital "rooms" appear out of nowhere and I believe that there are even more than can easily be converted to operate for a short time for Covid or transfer non Covid patients to them that don't need negative pressure and filtering as extensive this will leave you with more hospital rooms that do have better systems for isolation than the clinics.

 

[raggie33]

my freinds are starting to feel better after more then 3 weeks. they said it was the worse they have ever felt! wear a dang mask please

 

[turbodog]

Locally, hospitals are using surgical suites, labor/delivery rooms, etc for c-19. So that's a source of available rooms appearing overnight.

 

[raggie33]

well sadly i was right about herman cane rip

 

[orbital]

+

::People are going to think I 'm making this up, it is the truth::

Just this morning I left a local business and was talking to the owner about Covid.

This business owner told me of a good friend of his & wife went to get tested, the line of cars was extremely long and taking very long.
They did do the paperwork, but left before actually getting doing the test,, it was just taking an extremely long time.

This couple forgot about it; but a couple weeks later received a letter stating they both had a positive coronavirus test.

 

[PoliceScannerMan]

well sadly i was right about herman cane rip

So sad, RIP Herman

+

::People are going to think I 'm making this up, it is the truth::

Just this morning I left a local business and was talking to the owner about Covid.

This business owner told me of a good friend of his & wife went to get tested, the line of cars was extremely long and taking very long.
They did do the paperwork, but left before actually getting doing the test,, it was just taking an extremely long time.

This couple forgot about it; but a couple weeks later received a letter stating they both had a positive coronavirus test.

Absolutely believe that 100%.

 

[raggie33]

So sad, RIP Herman


Absolutely believe that 100%.

he was such a great guy who came from nothing and became a huge success

 

[PoliceScannerMan]

he was such a great guy who came from nothing and became a huge success

We had a godfather's pizza in my hometown, used to go after baseball games. Herman ran that company for quite some time.

 

[Monocrom]

I have Shamwows all over my house. I use them for just about everything... especially good for cleaning my bulldog's nose rope. And he likes it! When I even say the word "ShamWow", he heads to the kitchen for a cleaning. Great for cleaning those stainless steel appliances without streaking (use Pledge, not ordinary kitchen cleaners). Soooo... I would imagine, they would be quite effective as a mask... they work for everything else! - I would wear the logo... but yeah, the color? Meh. Maybe you can hand wash it and add a couple drops of food coloring to the rinse water? :shrug:

Now let's look at the other part of this commercial... Vince. I LOVE Vince! He sold me the SlapChop many years ago! Dude totally cracks me up! :crackup:

The mask would survive the washing machine. But the ear-loops wouldn't. Main reason why the vast majority of online, independent, seamstresses selling masks recommend handwashing. Usually warm water with mild detergent. Then, hang the mask up to dry.

 

[Monocrom]

I bought a package of these. The package claims "Adjustable nosepiece for enhanced fit" but there is no adjustable nosepiece. I'm not using them. Buyer beware. :mad:

Unfortunately, through Trial & Error and buying up a bunch of different masks from a bunch of different sources; I've found that the Big Name companies that now make masks are making only decent ones at best. (With New Balance being the huge exception. Their mask design is excellent. But all of their supply is sold to Healthcare workers exclusively.)

No, the absolute best source I've found is Etsy. And even then.... Etsy is one of those places that lets everyone sell on their platform, yes even children! So, much of the place is a sewer; with quite a few cesspools that make the sewers look good. But there are indeed some sellers who are very professional. Out of over 100+ masks from countless different sellers, I found a handful (no, not joking) who actually know how to make proper masks. Quality masks. Absolute best you can get when it comes to washable/re-usable, hand sewn masks. Filter pockets (open ended, that's important). Nose-wires for that much needed tight seal on the face. Proper head-ties or elastic ear-loops that are comfortable.

PM me for a list of those sellers if you need good masks. Why not take advantage of what I've learned. And you get to save a small fortune along the way. Seriously, a handful. I wish I was joking.

 

[Monocrom]

they started baseball again looks like it is already canceled . who did not see this coming?

I love me some baseball! Go Mets!.... And I wouldn't blame the players for going far, far away from New York City right now.

In a case of obvious news being obvious, those in charge of MLB decided to be greedy and stupid. The result?....

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/...have-opted-out-as-marlins-deal-with-outbreak/

 

[raggie33]

this scares me so much i have a feeling the country will be in worse shape then 1929. so may people with no job due to covid 19. and all the jobs replaced by machines etc etc. i guess im lucky im dirt poor so i wont be effected to much. plus im terrified id get covid 19

 

[Monocrom]

... plus im terrified id get covid 19

All we can individually do to stay safe is our best. Look.... cutting through all the B.S., that means wearing a good mask. Properly. Without your nostrils exposed. Yes, it's easier to breath with a mask on that way. Also a heck of a lot easier to get infected. Might as well not even be wearing a mask.

Only go out when you absolutely have to. Limit how long you're outside. When outside, maintain social distancing. 6 feet apart or more if possible. See someone outside without a mask, trying to talk to you? Tell them to get the Hell away from you. So what if they think you're being rude. Try to social distance as much as you can in the supermarket. Yes, I know that's not easy. But try.

Even better, if you can, order your groceries online.

Get plenty of hand-sanitizer. Home Depot is one excellent local source for that. I hate that frickin' company, but they have it. Get disinfecting wipes. That miserable company has those in stock too. Sometimes they even have surgical masks. (Though those masks take longer to get used to than a good Olson style face mask.)

Going to be touching plenty of things when outside? Get a box of gloves from your local pharmacy. A box of 100 goes by faster than you'd think it does.

Get plenty of soap from the local pharmacy or the supermarket. Doesn't have to be anti-bacterial. But if it is, hey; even better. Wash your hands often for at least 20 seconds per wash.

These things do work. Despite what anyone tells you. Are they 100% effective? No. But name something that is when you're engaging in an activity. Main thing is, be cautious. Don't live your life gripped by fear. I'm in the middle of the most heavily infected city on the whole damn planet. I still take care of what I need to take care of. Still go out when it's necessary. Getting food, and doing other things to take care of myself and my elderly mother. For some, this whole thing is about an Academic Discussion. Maybe that's how they cope with it. Who knows. For me, it's about taking pragmatic precautions. Living in fear isn't going to cause this virus to burn itself out.

All we can do is take the pragmatic precautions that we all know already exist. No point in living in fear. No need for it.