Calling all economic experts

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js

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125 basis points in two weeks is unprecedented....never happened in modern day history.

All the gains in the markets following the rate announcement has been completely erased due to reignited concerns over the bond insurers. FGIC was downgraded by Fitch and rumors are out that AMBAC and MBIA may suffer combined writedowns of $23 billion.....which would put these guys into bankrupcy. Also, some reporter from CNBC mentioned today that he thinks that AMBAC and MBIA downgrades are imminent, and that sent the markets into a selloff.

WP,

I'd love to hear more about this if/when you get more information and feel inclined to post about it.

I'd also still love to hear you explain in detail how FRR and credit creation by the banks work! Also, one question, what is above a AAA credit rating? "AAAA"? And what entities have a AAAA (or whatever) rating? The US government, presumably, and who else?
 

PEU

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Check this table from wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating

maincreditratingsku3.png

You can also check rating companies websites, such as Standard and Poors, Fitch, Moody's, etc


Pablo
 

js

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PEU,

Thanks for that. But this would suggest that there is NOTHING above a AAA credit rating. Perhaps that's true! WP?
 

da.gee

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There is no rating above AAA.

Government bonds. Treasury bonds and bills. Guaranteed by the government so always AAA.

Municipal bonds. A little different animal than government bonds. State, city or local governments issue these. Generally considered very low risk. Nearly always AAA. Municipal bonds have different credit criteria and rating system then corporate bonds. Favored by those with a large tax burden as interest is federally and often state tax exempt.

Agency bonds. Major ones include Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Sallie Mae, Federal Home Loan Bank. Always AAA rated. Of those listed only Ginnie Mae and Sallie Mae (I think) are guaranteed by the government. The two biggest issuers of mortgage-backed securities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not.

Corporate bonds. Basically a loan to the corporation and a promise to repay to the bondholder. This is where the rating agencies provide their input. Major agencies are Moody's, Standard and Poors and Fitch. They rate the company itself, not each individual bond issuance. Different financial metrics are examined to determine the likelihood of default. Things like debt-to-equity ratios, cash flow, ROE. interest coverage ratios, etc are evaluated and a rating is determined. Rating is important becasue it determines the rate at which a bond will be issued. Lower rated companies have to pay higher yields to compensate for the risk.

Corporate debt can be AAA rated but those companies that are have to have a pretty darn good balance sheet. When things start to go south you will see "downgrades" of corporate debt. It is much better to get an upgrade obviously.

Anything down to BBB is considered "investment grade". Anything lower is called "non-investment grade" or if you want to make it sound better it is often called "high yield".
 

WAVE_PARTICLE

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Triple A is pretty much the highest rating you can get. Essentially zero probability of default....


Why MBIA continues to have a AAA rating kinda makes me want to :barf:


As for FRR, it would probably be better to start a separate thread on that....cause it can really dominate the discussion.... maybe I can start one.... I know a nice YouTube vid that can start off the discussion with... :thumbsup:

WP
 
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Nitro

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

I guess that's about as much economic understanding as can be expected of you.

Honestly, Nitro, if you don't understand the subject, you can sit in and read, or even ask questions; no one will think any less of you for not trying to appear the wiser, we all have to start somewhere.

Ok Daveman, I have a question.

You said:
Daveman said:
The best position to take in the long haul is to get out of USD assests. That includes stocks.
If you really bought them cheap, I recommend you to unload them now and diversify into gold, Austrailian dollars, and maybe some Yuan

Then you said:
Daveman said:
I called your post "unamerican" not because of anything remotely related to the 1st amendment, Nitro. It's unamerican because you're attitude will not awake the sleeping/ignorant american masses that need to be educated

So naturally I put 2 & 2 together and asked this:
Nitro said:
Let me get this straight. Are you saying the "American" thing to do is convince the Sleeping/Ignorant American Masses to pull all their money out of the stock market, and buy Gold?

But then you said this:
Daveman said:
No, but once the masses realize the pyramid scheme that is today's U.S. economy, they won't wait for anybody to tell them to head for the exits.

I really want to understand this, so help me out. Should I try to convince (teach) Americans to pull their money out of the Stock Market, or not?
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

I really want to understand this, so help me out. Should I try to convince (teach) Americans to pull their money out of the Stock Market, or not?
What's the "American" thing to do? It would be to boldly speak the truth in the face of blatant and vicious lies, as the case is with current monetary system and the stock market it has propped up the past 15 years.

After having done that (speak the truth and dispelling the lies), it wouldn't be an "american" thing, but rather a self-perservation thing for everybody to get out of the stock market as they would have realized the current stock market is SO COMPLETELY detached from the real economy on main street that it is everybit as much of a bubble as the housing market had been.

So if you want to do the honorable thing to your fellow mankind, you will tell them to get off the trainwreck that's the U.S. stock market before it goes up in flames.
 

Nitro

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

So if you want to do the honorable thing to your fellow mankind, you will tell them to get off the trainwreck that's the U.S. stock market before it goes up in flames.

I want to be sure. You are saying I, and all other Americans should pull our money out of the US Stock Market. Do I have that correct?
 

jtr1962

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

So if you want to do the honorable thing to your fellow mankind, you will tell them to get off the trainwreck that's the U.S. stock market before it goes up in flames.
I agree but what should they do with their money? Anything with US dollars such as bank accounts or bonds will become near worthless as well once we get hyperinflation. Same with housing. In fact, if I could I think I'd be playing the sell short game with housing right now. That's how much I feel they're headed sharply downwards.

So what's left? Hard commodities like precious metals or even food? Problem with both is the prices can fluctutate wildly, and often not in relation to their true value. Honestly, it looks like no matter what anyone does they're going to be screwed unless this train wreck can be prevented. The recent dual rate cuts totalling 125 basis points shows how desperate the situation really is. They only have 300 basis points left to cut. If that fails to help, you'll have to start paying people to borrow money.

And to answer one of your earlier questions, yes, Americans will continue borrowing and get into a bigger hole so long as they are able to. Do they really have any choice? There are lots of people whose fixed expenses (not counting extras) are as much or even more than their take home pay from the $9 an hour Walmart job they have. The era of McJobs is partially responsible for the mountain of debt many families have. $9 or $10 an hour doesn't cut it, yet corporate America considers this "good money". Maybe it was 35 years ago. It doesn't even cover necessities nowadays.
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

I want to be sure. You are saying I, and all other Americans should pull our money out of the US Stock Market. Do I have that correct?
Unless you, or some other one of the other 300 million Americans holds stocks in the next Google or Bankrate, then I would absolutely recommend sell sell sell.

If everyone were to sell right away, the market will crash immediately, BUT, even if everyone stays in and let the market survive on life support, the market WILL STILL CRASH (DOW at ~8000, it's above 12000 now) ANYHOW BY YEAR'S END. So either way, people will burn, BUT WHOEVER GETS OUT FIRST, NOW, will get to keep some skin still.


You're welcome.
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

I agree but what should they do with their money? Anything with US dollars such as bank accounts or bonds will become near worthless as well once we get hyperinflation. Same with housing. In fact, if I could I think I'd be playing the sell short game with housing right now. That's how much I feel they're headed sharply downwards.
I posted on pg.8

"The best position to take in the long haul is to get out of USD assests. That includes stocks.

If you really bought them cheap, I recommend you to unload them now and diversify into gold, Austrailian dollars, and maybe some Yuan (but you won't be able to get out of it for some time)."

So what's left? Hard commodities like precious metals or even food? Problem with both is the prices can fluctutate wildly, and often not in relation to their true value.
Fluctuate upwards, yes. Gold still has some ways to climb...until it is time to sell them again, at a REAL profit, most likely.


They only have 300 basis points left to cut. If that fails to help, you'll have to start paying people to borrow money.
The Fed is already paying people to borrow money :eek:. I'll let you figure out this one yourself.
 

Nitro

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

Unless you, or some other one of the other 300 million Americans holds stocks in the next Google or Bankrate, then I would absolutely recommend sell sell sell.

If everyone were to sell right away, the market will crash immediately, BUT, even if everyone stays in and let the market survive on life support, the market WILL STILL CRASH (DOW at ~8000, it's above 12000 now) ANYHOW BY YEAR'S END. So either way, people will burn, BUT WHOEVER GETS OUT FIRST, NOW, will get to keep some skin still.

You're welcome.

I won't ask how you KNOW the stock market is going to crash by years end, but I do have another question.

If everyone were to pull out of the market all at once, and after it crashes, what do you think will happen to the U.S. Economy?
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

I won't ask how you KNOW the stock market is going to crash by years end, but I do have another question.
Good, because I wouldn't have told you unless you paid me. You sound surprised that somebody should happen to know what will happen to the market "shortly" before it happens; know this then: somebody ALWAYS knows ahead of time.

If everyone were to pull out of the market all at once, and after it crashes, what do you think will happen to the U.S. Economy?
Exactly what this guy said will happen:

If everyone were to sell right away, the market will crash immediately, BUT, even if everyone stays in and let the market survive on life support, the market WILL STILL CRASH (DOW at ~8000, it's above 12000 now) ANYHOW BY YEAR'S END. So either way, people will burn, BUT WHOEVER GETS OUT FIRST, NOW, will get to keep some skin still.

Didn't you read his post?


Oh, and once again, you're welcome.

EDIT: You see, Nitro, the stock market, and to a lesser extent, the overall economy, will crash regardless of the masses waking up and getting out of the pyramid scheme in time. But the big boys, the main players, want to keep the small guys (you and me, I assume) in the scheme until after they have completely pulled out of the deep end, if they haven't already. Whoever gets on the last bus is will be the sorry ones, so get off the bus now, and don't worry about it crashing, BECAUSE THE BUS HAD BEEN RIGGED WITH A TIME BOMB FROM THE VERY START.
 
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Nitro

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

Daveman, I asked you what will happen to the U.S. Economy, not the Stock Market.
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

Daveman, I asked you what will happen to the U.S. Economy, not the Stock Market.
How the heck would I know?

But if the U.S. economy should crash due to the burst of an artificial and unsustainable stock market bubble (which I suspect it will) that propped up the economy in the first place, then this economy was doomed to serious catastrophy in the very beginning, no need for any patriotic American to feel sorry for this weak, poorly conceived, and fraud (I assume this would qualify as un-american to you) of a system having been corrected.

There, I hope you've learned something from all my typing. I didn't have somebody patiently typing out answers to my question in a one-on-one session during my learning process. I had to dig, dig, and dig some more from various sources; hope you at least don't despise my effort.
 

Nitro

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

How the heck would I know?

You claim to know the Stock Market is going to crash by the end of the year. How could you not know what would happen to the U.S. Economy if everyone (directed by your infinite wisdom) were to pull out of the stock market, and cause, not just a crash to ~8000, but a
disintegration to ZERO?
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

You claim to know the Stock Market is going to crash by the end of the year. How could you not know what would happen to the U.S. Economy if everyone (directed by your infinite wisdom) were to pull out of the stock market, and cause, not just a crash to ~8000, but a
disintegration to ZERO?

But if the U.S. economy should crash due to the burst of an artificial and unsustainable stock market bubble (which I suspect it will) that propped up the economy in the first place, then this economy was doomed to serious catastrophy in the very beginning, no need for any patriotic American to feel sorry for this weak, poorly conceived, and fraud (I assume this would qualify as un-american to you) of a system having been corrected.

My post was right above yours, man....
 

Nitro

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

daveman said:
My post was right above yours, man....
Ok, I'll ignore you posting this
daveman said:
How the heck would I know?
to my direct question
Nitro said:
Daveman, I asked you what will happen to the U.S. Economy, not the Stock Market.
and ask another question.

Ok, so all Americans should pull their money out of the Stock Market, therefore killing it. Sould we also stop buying unnecessary items, and only buy food, clothes etc.?
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

Ok, I'll ignore you posting this

to my direct question

and ask another question.

Ok, so all Americans should pull their money out of the Stock Market, therefore killing it. Sould we also stop buying unnecessary items, and only buy food, clothes etc.?
Your answer is still in my post above, where I had left it. :confused:

Now, as to your new question, people pulling their money out of the stock market will not kill it, but rather, the market is doomed because of the fradulent boom that has artificially kept it up the past few years.

As for your shopping strategy, I think you would better off adjusting that to your needs. I don't know what you mean by "should we" stop buying xyz, this and that, as I don't know how your finance is doing.

Is it just me or do your questions sound like they're repeating themselves now?

EDIT: And the tone of your posts doesn't sound very appreciative of my efforts to educate you? It's already past 10 here and I do have work next morning, so I'm basically staying up just to answer your questions because I never had anybody to answer my questions for free.
 
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Nitro

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

Now, as to your new question, people pulling their money out of the stock market will not kill it.
You don't believe if EVERYONE pulled their money out of the market it would kill it?

As for your shopping strategy, I think you would better off adjusting that to your needs. I don't know what you mean by "should we" stop buying xyz, this and that, as I don't know how your finance is doing.
This a general question. Do you think Americans should buy anything that they don't need? After all, if they shouldn't buy a company's stock, why should they buy a new HDTV.
 
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