Calling all economic experts

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daveman

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If I understand you correctly, you recommend to sell low, buy high?



I might take a slightly different approach.
No, I recommend buy low, sell high. It's just that your perception of value these days, what's high and what's low, is off, WP.

If you think U.S. stocks is "low" right now, wait till summer. As for gold, I won't explain myself, but will let time tell the story.
 

daveman

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Maybe some Kruggerands too. Anything that can't be inflated so easily. For some reason people want to tie gold or silvers value to Federal Reserve Notes when it CANNOT be done. It's just that simple. Gold will hold it's value no matter what any other paper "currency" does. Now if you could take your $20 FRN down to the bank and redeem it for $20 in gold it would be a different story. Remember what a dollar is by definition and this is according to the Coinage Act of April 2, 1792. It is based on the Spanish milled Dollar 1) Silver- 412.5 grains, 90% pure, 10% alloy added for strength and durability. 2) Gold- 27.5 grains, 90% pure, 10% alloy added for strength and durability. Article 1, Subsection 8, US Constitution states the Congress is responsible "To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures". Also and this is most important, the government coined and issued our money "
DEBT FREE". No interest would be paid to the Federal Reserve or anybody else, that is why this foundation is so very important. When Congress illegally gave their money making authority away to a foreign entity by allowing passage of the Federal Reserve Act and the Income Tax which is also illegal, the stage was set for the destruction of the United States. Section 19 of the Coinage Act states: If any of the said officers or persons shall embezzle ANY of the metals, every such officer or person who shall commit any or either of the said offenses, shall be deemed guilty of felony, and shall suffer DEATH. Such was the importance of an honest money system to our ancestors. This is what our country was founded upon and it has been corrupted completely, even the scriptures talk of this. And our country was based on that once too, you CANNOT build a house on sand as when the storms come it will eventually fall, and our Creator HATES unjust weights and measures because it enriches a few and steals from the many. This is the situation we find ourselves in today. I don't know how much more plain I can make it. There are plenty of books and resources where history and these concepts can be studied, there isn't enough space here to cover it all. Most of this is just common sense stuff, you don't need a degree in Economics to figure this out because they won't teach you these things anyway. There is no "mystery" to this at all. :)
Worthy of a repost...
 

daveman

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And another half point slashed by the FED, markets reaction seems to be good, it was expected at least that...


Pablo
Hahahaha, 3% rates? Hahaha, why wouldn't people get themselves into more debts and keep borrowing? Why should American families save and work off their debts when the real interest rates are lower than the inflation rate (already tortured to the low side by the government)?

This is too sad to be funny, but I still want to give it one more laugh.
HAHAHAHA.
 

daveman

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Marnav1, we get what are you trying to say in your last posts, the dollar is not tied to anything...

But, you have too much faith in commodities such as gold and other minerals, there is a Dilbert comic strip that puts this in context, I tried to find it but only found the text:

Dilbert's Dog Dogbert enters a jewelry store:

Clerk: Are you interested in purchasing one of our diamonds?

Dogbert: Let me get this straight. I give you a pile of money, and in return you give me a pebble you found on the ground.

Clerk: But these aren't ordinary pebbles! They're very special, very rare ones!

Dogbert: That's only because you made a marketing decision to restrict the supply.

Clerk: Rats! You know our secret. Here, have a free bag of diamonds.


My point is, commodities can be manipulated too...


Pablo
Correct, Pablo, but if commodities can be manipulated, how much more so for paper money?
 

js

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And another half point slashed by the FED, markets reaction seems to be good, it was expected at least that...


Pablo

Another 50 on top of the 75 already made just a week ago. That has got to be some kind of record, right? 1.25 percentage point drop in, what?, 7 days?
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

Let me get this straight. Are you saying the "American" thing to do is convince the Sleeping/Ignorant American Masses to pull all their money out of the stock market, and buy Gold?
No, but once the masses realize the pyramid scheme that is today's U.S. economy, they won't wait for anybody to tell them to head for the exits.

But, of course, the doors automatically lock when the customers all try to leave at once. The booze has ran out, the cops have arrived, and Bernanke showing up with a couple more kegs of beer won't keep the orgy going much longer, if at all.
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

Hence the term "bubble"....the bubble is already there and has been building up for the past few years.

Perhaps you think that America is the center of the universe and is the only place on Earth that can create bubbles. The bubble I was referring to was not about US credit, but about the unsustainable economic expansion of China itself.....exacerbated by the artificially low yuan.
The unsustainable economic expansion of China creating a bubble in the Chinese economy? First of all, let me pretend that is the case, as any layman may find that agreeable seeing how China's latest inflation numbers are some 7%. But even if there is a "bubble" (the term was used incorrectly in your post) in China, even if the corrupt Chinese banks, and they are very corrupt, go belly up on their corrupt loans, the Chinese government have the money to fill that hole, all of it... nothing will pop in China. All because their economy is growing, is actually creating wealth, by manufacturing, by making items that foreigners will have to hand over money for (as a sidenote, if they should start disliking what they're getting for the goods they're handing off, they will start demanding something else more tangible), they're inflation is accompanied by REAL GROWTH. Which leads to the following: there is no bubble in China, just inflation that can be managed. The Shanghai stocks, the housing "bubble," will not pop, deflate a little, maybe, but not pop. The money has no where to go in China; those hard working, hard saving Chinese have no where else to put their money.

On the other hand, America... well, the picture is clear without me having to elaborate.

Daveman, I do not expect you to fully appreciate what I have to say, nor do I care.
That makes one of you; I do appreciate and care about what you have said, but was just a little let down by the last post. Guess I am the only weirdo in here...
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

If everyone would please refrain from making personal comments or taking things personally, we can avoid this thread becoming a train wreck.

This means, for example, that instead of calling someone "irrational", you focus instead on the topic, and where you disagree, and why.
Thank you, JS, I couldn't have said it better myself, but was hoping for a mod to say it.
 

turkdc

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

I think that a lot of good points have been made in this thread. In response to Nitro's question about everyone selling their stocks and buying gold, I personally hope that that doesn't happen. Ownership of stocks can be a great way to make money. The problem is that the "money" that is "made" is backed by nothing. The person that holds gold is probably not going to "make" a lot of money. What that person will do is protect the money that he does have from the insidious power of inflation.

Regardless of whether it is China's fault or Saudi Arabia's fault, or our own; when those foreign countries dump their USD we are going to see some crazy stuff happen to our economy. I personally wouldn't be surprised to see inflation and possible MASSIVE inflation. If that happens, gold, silver and other commodities become a way of protecting some of your assets.

In the United States we really don't understand economics. We have an "economy" that is manipulated through monetary policy. Fiat money systems, historically, don't last forever. Good luck to everyone.
 

daveman

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Another 50 on top of the 75 already made just a week ago. That has got to be some kind of record, right? 1.25 percentage point drop in, what?, 7 days?
The Fed is getting more predictable each day, this will not end well.
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

Regardless of whether it is China's fault or Saudi Arabia's fault, or our own; when those foreign countries dump their USD we are going to see some crazy stuff happen to our economy. I personally wouldn't be surprised to see inflation and possible MASSIVE inflation. If that happens, gold, silver and other commodities become a way of protecting some of your assets.
That logic is certainly true, and is what most folks think will happen before the gig is up. But the truth is, foreigners don't need to "dump" their USD holdings to crash the dollar. The dollar is already stretched too thin to require any dumping to get burned.


Fiat money systems, historically, don't last forever. Good luck to everyone.
That's the understatement of the century...
 

WAVE_PARTICLE

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Another 50 on top of the 75 already made just a week ago. That has got to be some kind of record, right? 1.25 percentage point drop in, what?, 7 days?


125 basis points in two weeks is unprecedented....never happened in modern day history.

All the gains in the markets following the rate announcement has been completely erased due to reignited concerns over the bond insurers. FGIC was downgraded by Fitch and rumors are out that AMBAC and MBIA may suffer combined writedowns of $23 billion.....which would put these guys into bankrupcy. Also, some reporter from CNBC mentioned today that he thinks that AMBAC and MBIA downgrades are imminent, and that sent the markets into a selloff.
 

MarNav1

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I understand what you are saying Pablo, anything can be manipulated. But in American Jurisprudence the foundation is gold and silver coin. The dollar is tied to something as I stated in a previous post. Federal Reserve Notes are not and this is a major point, people think they are the same thing and they are entirely different animals and operate in different jurisdictions of law as well. Very early on we used to be able to get gold and silver certificates that were redeemable in "lawful" money ie coin. They are gone too and have been for a long time now. Gold has been a standard of value for 3500 years minimum. It's the logical choice for an honest money system. There is no country in the world that I know of that wouldn't accept gold coin as payment of a debt. I know it has been at least since ancient Egypt, Moses and the golden calf. Probably far longer than that.
 
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Nitro

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

No, but once the masses realize the pyramid scheme that is today's U.S. economy, they won't wait for anybody to tell them to head for the exits.

But, of course, the doors automatically lock when the customers all try to leave at once. The booze has ran out, the cops have arrived, and Bernanke showing up with a couple more kegs of beer won't keep the orgy going much longer, if at all.

I also recommend trying coffee without Kahlua.
 

daveman

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Re: The Economy, What's your take

I also recommend trying coffee without Kahlua.
I guess that's about as much economic understanding as can be expected of you.

Honestly, Nitro, if you don't understand the subject, you can sit in and read, or even ask questions; no one will think any less of you for not trying to appear the wiser, we all have to start somewhere.
 

LightInTheWallet

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"Helicopter Ben" sure has been a busy fellow. I heard the economy was hunky-dory. Dang these internets with the rumors and such. Citibank and Countrywide look like high potential investments. :thumbsup:
 

daveman

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Citibank and Countrywide look like high potential investments. :thumbsup:
Citi still has alot of Level 3 assests to sort through, and when they have, they'll have writtend down alot more losses then they had the past quarter. Their shares may rebound eventually, but it'll get worse before it gets better.

As for countrywide, their mortgage defaults are rising. That's after the BOA takeover. It'll get worse before it gets better.
 

js

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This is the last time I'm going to say this:

KEEP POSTS CIVIL AND FOCUSED ON THE DISCUSSION.

Posts that state or imply that people are drunk, stupid, irrational, or whatever, are not appreciated. If you think someone's posted opinion is out-to-lunch or way off base or ignorant, then please address yourself to the posted opinion and refrain from making insulting remarks about the poster him- or herself. And people better not use the "well, he started it" defense. I hope we are all clear on this matter now.
 
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